Why Beating the The Big Brother Bills is All That Can Save the Miami Dolphins Now

The Miami Dolphins were unable to overcome themselves in Sunday’s 28-27 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, marking the second consecutive game that Mike McDaniel’s group had lost after leading by double-digits in the second half. There are many glaring points that fans can rightfully point to in throwing the blame around for the loss, arguably none more impactful than the safety on a botched snap between Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Center Aaron Brewer, which directly resulted in eight Cardinals points in the third quarter.

The game was one which was supposed to mark the triumphant return of the aforementioned quarterback, who had missed the previous four games, a span in which the Dolphins sputtered to a 1-3 record, due in large part to an offense that was ranked dead last in the league over that period. And so, at 2-5, the Miami Dolphins, a team which had Super Bowl aspirations in the offseason, find themselves on the brink. Fittingly, the team staring at them from the other side, ready to push them into obscurity for the remainder of 2024, and potentially beyond, considering what the ramifications of such a loss may be, is the Buffalo Bills. This is not just any opponent for these Miami Dolphins, these Bills have been the Achilles heel for the McDaniel era Dolphins, as they have absolutely dominated Miami in recent years, in fact, following the Dolphins first matchup with the Bills in the Tua/McDaniel partnership, a 21-19 victory in September of 2022, the Dolphins have lost six straight to their archrivals, with an average margin of defeat of 12.4 points in that span. Fast forward to this week’s game, and that 12.4 points feels as though it pales in comparison to what may happen on Sunday in Buffalo, just as the Dolphins have been spiraling, this is a Bills team that has been firing on all cylinders of late, winners of three straight, the latest of which being an impressive 31-10 drubbing of the Seahawks in Seattle while still incorporating newly acquired star receiver Amari Cooper into the fold. Certainly, overcoming these Bills on the road in a hostile environment is a herculean task for Mike McDaniel and company, armed with a defense that was just ripped to shreds by a Cardinals team that exposed the Dolphins linebackers in pass coverage, a fact that Josh Allen will be sure to exploit with the likes of Dalton Kincaid at his disposal, and an offense that has seemingly struggled to get its feet under itself for the better part of a calendar year now, with struggles going beyond even Tagovailoa’s recent absence.

Winning, however, is the only option for this group, if they want to remain this group, that is. While coach McDaniel has expressed that owner Stephen Ross is still in his corner at Monday’s press conference, each week that goes by with a loss makes that support look more and more like the dreaded “vote of confidence” we seem to always hear about before a coach’s dismissal, and considering the opponent on Sunday, and the stakes, with falling to 2-6 all but ending the season, makes this game arguably the biggest of McDaniel’s tenure. Lose, and the fate is sealed, as the Dolphins likely spiral to a 4-12 or 5-11 record, dooming all of those involved in the creation and curation of this roster, General Manager Chris Grier, included. IF, the Dolphins pull off the seemingly impossible and win, however, the possibilities of the season open back up. Not only would such a victory bring them to 3-5, which, on the surface seems relatively unimportant in the grand scheme of things, it is what such a win would mean for the team symbolically. To beat this opponent, the team which has been the measuring stick for the rest of the AFC East, and has single handedly owned the Dolphins for the better part of the last three seasons, could be exactly the flashpoint that the team could rally around in turning the tides of their 2024 season, conquering their biggest foe at their most desperate moment.

The question then becomes, how, exactly can the Miami Dolphins accomplish such a feat? I have spent quite a bit of time thus far emphasizing just how unlikely of a victory this would be for Miami, and for good reason, it truly can not be overstated, but the games are not played on paper. The short answer is, and this may be disappointing to hear for many fans, but it starts with a similar game plan, albeit not totally the same, that the Dolphins had prior to the wheels falling off in week two versus the Bills. In the first half of week two, the Dolphins had turned the ball over three times (twice via interceptions, once on downs) giving Buffalo a field no shorter than 49 yards on three scoring drives resulting in 17 of their 24 points in the first half. The culprit of these turnovers? Overagression. Each time, these turnovers were a result of the Dolphins attempting to do too much. From Tua Tagovailoa targeting Grant DuBose and Robbie Chosen downfield despite being well-covered, to a decision to go for it on 4th down from Buffalo’s 45 yard-line that had resulted in a sack rather than staying patient and pinning the Bills back deep into their own territory.

This is not necessarily to say that the Dolphins would have won if they had simply been more patient, playing a more conservative game, but the scoreboard certainly would not have looked the way that it did heading into the half. The Dolphins had rushed for 101 yards on 20 carries in the first half, with De’Von Achane accounting for 69 of those yards on 14 carries. The passing game, however, was more problematic, and the core of where I think changes can and should be made. Tua Tagovailoa went 13-18 for 94 yards with two costly interceptions. Limiting those turnovers in week 10, will be key, along with using a full stable of rushers. In the previous matchup with the Bills, Miami was limited in the backfield to De’Von Achane, and Jeff Wilson, Jr. as Raheem Mostert missed the game with a chest injury suffered the week prior, and Jaylen Wright having not yet cracked the running back rotation (he still hasn’t fully). This is a Dolphins team now that is even better equipped to run the football, and do so to great effect, as over the last three weeks, the Miami Dolphins have averaged 177 yards per game on the ground on 35 attempts, good for five yards per carry. With a more effective run game, and a healthier stable of backs, Miami should be able to run with decent success in week nine, and they will need to stick with it.

The passing game is another story altogether, while more effective versus the Cardinals in week eight than in previous weeks, it was still a far cry from what many had expected of the Dolphins offense with their main signal-caller at the helm as they were only able to muster 234 yards in the passing game, good for just 6.2 yards per attempt. In the midst of writing this piece, I decided to look back at the first game versus the Bills in September (gross, I know) but one of the things that I found, specifically in the passing game, was…interesting. In Mike McDaniel’s offense, in most offenses really, but more specifically in this offense, space is king. The Dolphins first half offensive game plan was clearly to try and get the skill players out in space, this resulted in a flurry of pop passes, screens, throws to the flat and the like. Normally, versus a team who is flooding the middle of the field, like the Bills were, in order to try and take the Dolphins bread and butter concepts away, this would work. The issue in the previous matchup, though, was that it did not. The reason for this has been somewhat cleaned up by the Dolphins in recent weeks, as the perimeter blocking in this game was just atrocious offensively.

The more interesting takeaway that I noticed was the success the Dolphins had when doing the inverse, which is, spreading the defense out wide in order to better attack the middle of the field in the passing game. On throws to the outside (I used outside the formation here, rather than outside the numbers, because those throws almost didn’t exist) Tua Tagovailoa was 10-14 for 48 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions (one on a botched throwaway attempt). When throwing over the middle of the field, Tagovailoa was much, much more effective. Excluding the 10 yard pop pass to Tyreek, he completed seven of ten passes for 91 yards, and a pick. When context is added to these numbers, they become much more impressive, as the interception was to Grant DuBose, and while the throw was too aggressive for my liking considering the coverage and the target of the pass, it hit him right on the chest before being popped up into the air and intercepted, and the other two incompletions were on a throw over the middle to Tyreek that is on the money if he is not (arguably) held, and a dropped touchdown pass by Julian Hill. Once again, I stress, this is not me pleading my case that the Dolphins could have, or should have, beaten the Bills in week two, but rather highlighting concepts that could bring success in a do-or-die week 9 matchup for Miami. On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins are coming off of their worst performance by far of the 2024 season for Anthony Weaver’s defense. To their credit, they were down their best defensive lineman in Zach Sieler, a player who the Dolphins will desperately need on Sunday if they wish to contain the Bills’ offense, but the bigger issue versus the Cardinals were the linebackers, specifically. Jordyn Brooks and David Long, Jr. were arguably two of the Dolphins best defenders, stuffing runs, and yes, even covering pass-catchers in the first matchup with Buffalo that saw the defense limit Josh Allen to 139 yards passing and only two (!) yards rushing, these two will have to have a massive bounce back game if Miami hopes to contain these high-flying Bills in week nine.

As for Buffalo, this is a different Bills team than the Dolphins previously saw in week two, however, as in recent weeks the Bills have acquired Wide Receiver Amari Cooper from the Browns, and had rookie running back Ray Davis emerge in recent weeks as a legitimate thunder to James Cook’s lightning. The Dolphins secondary will certainly face a more challenging group of skill players this week than they did in round one versus Buffalo, but this is an improved secondary as well, for Miami, as in recent weeks they have seemed to clean up some of the miscommunication issues that had resulted in long touchdowns early in the season. The key, as always, will be to contain Josh Allen, a tough ask for a unit that struggled to do so with Kyler Murray on Sunday, resulting in multiple completions down field on extended plays. No matter how improved the secondary is, or how high of a level Jalen Ramsey is playing at, there is no secondary on the face of the planet that can cover the Bills if Josh Allen is given free reign to extend plays seemingly infinitely as he is known to do, this is where the defensive line will be key on Sunday, the Dolphins must find a way to win on first and second down in order to put the Bills in challenging third and long scenarios, this doesn’t guarantee that Allen can’t or won’t put on his Superman cape, he undoubtedly will, at some point in the game, but the Dolphins must make the degree of difficulty as high as possible. So, what does this all mean for Sunday? Do the Dolphins pull off the improbable in Buffalo? Can Mike McDaniel and the rest of the coaching staff pull a rabbit out of their collective hats?

Only time will tell. One thing is certain, however, and that is that for the sake of the season, for the sake of this brain trust, and the sake of this build, the Dolphins make their last stand this Sunday.

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Eric Wiedeke (@EricWiedeke) appears on Final Yard and Pulse of Fins Nation and Prize Picks shows on the Five Reasons Sports Network.