Pressure Point: Miami Dolphins’ playoff hopes hang by a thread, future foggy

Despite all of their shortcomings and all of the ways they have disappointed this season, the Miami Dolphins are alive and kicking entering the final two weeks of the season.

Thank the kicking of Jason Sanders for providing most of the points they needed Sunday to dispatch the San Francisco 49ers, whose disappointing season ran out of hope prior to kickoff after results from early games sealed their fate.

Sanders, the special teams player of the month in November, continued to swing a hot foot, so to speak, with five field goals in five tries, including long-range strikes of 54 and 48 yards, in a 29-17 win at Hard Rock Stadium. He set a Dolphins record with 23 consecutive field goals made.

The Dolphins got an interception by Kader Kohou and a 50-yard touchdown run by De’Von Achane in the final two minutes to send their fans off with holiday cheer in the home finale.

Their own reward is two trips to cold climes for games they can’t afford to lose, an assignment Dolphins teams have made a habit of failing repeatedly at this time of year. This time they get to try to change that behavior against opponents that are a combined 7-23 — the 3-12 Browns at Cleveland and the 4-11 Jets at the Meadowlands.

50-yard run 😮‍💨#ProBowlVote @ffvmousvon_ pic.twitter.com/ftAEArpzck

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 23, 2024

Dolphins set to chill vs. Browns, Jets

They need to bag those two lame ducks and have some teams ahead of them in the playoff pecking order stumble to earn what would likely be another trip to some gawdforsaken frigid place like Buffalo or Kansas City.

Which happen to be the places their past two seasons, respectively, ended in one-and-done playoff demise.

In other words, the 7-8 Dolphins are treading in familiar perilous territory. It feels as if they are vying for a consolation prize that keeps coming to them like an unwanted grab-bag gift.

More of a curse than an accomplishment, in light of their history this century. Since their last playoff win in the 2000 season, the Dolphins have made the playoffs five times. They rapidly exited by a combined score of 137-62, only once keeping the final margin of defeat under double digits.

Still, the Dolphins go into the final two weeks with a chance for their third consecutive playoff appearance, which the franchise hasn’t achieved since a five-year postseason run from 1998-2001.

That would provide some consolation to an otherwise forgettable season, considering their 2-6 start and four-game injury absence of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Dolphins playoff probability at 8 percent

But snagging the final AFC wild card remains very much a long shot, Miami’s current playoff probability at 8 percent. That is the cost of a dreadful start to the season.

And here’s the kicker that even Jason Sanders can’t affect from long range: The Dolphins could be dealt out of the picture before they kick off Sunday, 4:05 p.m. at Cleveland.

Miami needs losses on Saturday by the Chargers (at New England) and Broncos (at Cincinnati), and for both to lose again in the final week.

In addition, the Colts must lose to at least one of two remaining weak sisters on their schedule — at the Giants (1 p.m., Sunday) or at home vs. the Jaguars.

The Dolphins’ win against the 49ers and coach Mike McDaniel’s former mentor Kyle Shanahan lacked the luster that would have been envisioned upon first glace at the schedule.

The 49ers who showed up Sunday with a 6-8 record were greatly diminished from the team that lost to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl in February, due to numerous injuries and all-around poor play.

Their performance Sunday, beset with mistakes and penalties, resembled some of the Dolphins’ frustrating efforts this season. They committed 11 penalties and missed a short field goal.

the signature celly 🪓🪓🪓 #EasyToCelebrate#ProBowlVote + @chopyoungbull pic.twitter.com/ggMfV3Ipca

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 23, 2024

Dolphins best downtrodden 49ers

Still, the Niners were at midfield and driving toward a would-be winning touchdown until Calais Campbell got in Brock Purdy’s face and forced an errant pass that Kodou picked off.

This was the sort of game the Dolphins have made a habit of winning. They are now 24-9 against below-.500 opponents in McDaniel’s three seasons at the helm.

Their 3-13 mark against teams above .500 under McDaniel is the basis for ongoing exasperation within the fan base and uncertainty about the future of this Dolphins regime.

That has been elevated by going 0-5 in such games this season. (The now 9-6 Rams were 4-4 when the Dolphins beat them at LA for their best win of the season).

This win wouldn’t have maintained such suspense if Tyreek Hill, who caught one touchdown from Tagovailoa, hadn’t let two others slip through his hands in the end zone (one of them tipped at the last moment by a defender).

Afterward, Hill offered a curious observation about what has been an odd season for the eight-time Pro Bowl wide receiver, suggesting that perhaps he took too many veteran rest days from Wednesday practices.

“As a leader, in those moments, I feel like at the end of the day, I need those valuable reps with Tua. Those vet rest days are starting to show,” he said.

When told that Tyreek said he needed more practice time with Tua, Tua agreed. “That’s the secret sauce.” pic.twitter.com/bXNpr4t5Ug

— Five Reasons Sports 🏀🏈⚾️🏒⚽️ (@5ReasonsSports) December 23, 2024

Tyreek Hill struggles with injury, karma

This Dolphins season began with strange karma from Hill’s run-in with police while driving to the opener. He has been hampered by a wrist injury that may need surgery. Now running mate Jaylen Waddle is sidelined with a knee injury.

“It’s the NFL. It’s not easy,” Hill said. “I know in the past I’ve made it look easy, but this year it’s kind of tough, but it is what it is, man. I’m human. I’ll bounce back.”

🎥 Tyreek Hill on his career low numbers this season: "A lot of guys understand what I'm dealing with this year… I'm learning how to be patient. I'm learning how to be more mature about situations whenever they don't go my way." (@MiamiDolphins) #GoFins pic.twitter.com/oXjv6v8FSg

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) December 23, 2024

The Dolphins have bounced back with wins in five of their past seven games. They finished 5-3 at home.

They finally got their dormant rushing attack going with 166 yards (5.5 yards a carry), including 120 by Achane, against McDaniel’s former boss — Miami had been averaging 60 yards on the ground since midseason.

So now, as they say, it’s onward to Cleveland.

Wait, nobody says that. But that’s where this latest wayward Dolphins season stands, facing a cold day in Cleveland.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for more than four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.