Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Draymond Green earns fifth playoff technical foul

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Another Warriors game, another exhibit of Draymond Green crossing the line and acting like the victim. With five playoff technical fouls in only nine outings, Green’s getting a warning letter plus a $4,000 fine and is two away from a mandatory suspension. 

 

During Game 2 of the Timberwolves v. Warriors, Naz Reid committed a reach-in foul against Green to free the ball and instantly was countered with a flailing arm to the head that dropped him. Stan Van Gundy stupidly wondered if there was intent by the league’s dirtiest player on the TNT broadcast when Green’s dangerous stunts on Tari Eason and Jalen Green happened as recently as the last round.

 

At some point in the game, a fan allegedly spat some racial smack at Green, getting tossed by arena authorities. This likely had Green more upset after the game, when he gave a brief statement: “The agenda to continue to keep making me look like an angry black man is crazy. I’m sick of it. It’s ridiculous.” 

 

There is no conspiracy by media folk, who are also his colleagues, because of his roles at TNT and Volume Sports, to sully his reputation. He does that himself whenever he tries to hurt another with non-basketball tactics. MMA moves are a part of his arsenal because of his limitations as a player and his inability to control his violent temper. Yet Steve Kerr said after the game that these things happen because he cares too much. If only someone would have asked the coach how his player’s actions aren’t poisonously selfish.

 

The only reason people want to question Green is because he’s the same guy who laid out Jordan Poole, threatened his coach, choked Rudy Gobert, windmilled on Jusef Nurkić’s head and kicked Steven Adams’ bollocks, aside from the innumerable list of priors. His postgame comments were BS. He’s upset at the consequences of being a dirty player and thinks his one-day hall-of-fame status should exempt him from reproach.

 

The series is tied at 1-1, and the new hosts in Golden State will be without Stephen Curry until at least May 14, as he suffered a left hamstring injury early in Game 1. As a result, they played 14 guys on Thursday, the most in the playoffs since 1998. Additionally, when considering Jimmy Butler’s comfort in taking a lesser role, Green will have to be more than an ordinary player for the Warriors to have a chance of advancing. To his credit, Green wasn’t guarded in Game 1, punishing the Wolves for it, but that’s not who he is. The only things he’ll lead the playoffs in are technical (5) plus flagrant fouls (2) accumulated even with an early exit. 

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: The second round shows how far away the Heat are from competing

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It was a hard, frustrating season for the Heat faithful because their crew stunk and was drawn and quartered in four games by the Cavaliers. Round two, which has featured only prosperity for the visitors, also shows how far away they are from the serious teams.

 

The Cleveland-Indiana series kicked off Sunday with Darius Garland (toe) out for the former. That version of the Cavaliers trashed Kaseya Center by a combined 92 points. Then the Pacers outplayed them and claimed Game 1 in Cleveland as Tyrese Haliburton was the best player late, hunting down Jarrett Allen for a deep jumper and blow-by on the right side.

 

The Pacers seized one of the most memorable playoff wins of the last five years two nights later. One side will remember it as a breakthrough performance and the other as a nightmare that possibly ended their season.

 

The Pacers looked like they were going to blow their golden opportunity because they showed up playing with less force, almost expecting the wounded Cavs to surrender. Evan Mobley (ankle), Garland (toe) and De’Andre Hunter (thumb) were absent, but Mitchell was dragging his crew with a superhero discharge reminiscent of LeBron James’ last ride with Cleveland in 2018.

 

The guests were down 17 in the late third quarter and didn’t yield because they have high basketball character and one of the league’s brightest stars as the lead decision-maker.

 

The short-staffed Cavs had chances to get away as they were up seven with 48 seconds left, but their night ended with Haliburton hitting a 24-foot step-back game-winning triple in Ty Jerome’s face. The series is now 2-0, shifting to Indiana.

 

There’s not much coach Kenny Atkinson can tell his team after that. Times have changed, but perhaps he should listen to coach Paul Westphal’s public comments after the ‘93 Suns fell 2-0 at home and won the series in five after he guaranteed it.

 

Here’s the difference between the Heat and Pacers. The latter’s star player has a rare takeover ability, and his supporting cast of Rottweilers can defend up top and below. The Heat has two nice players in Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, but they aren’t at that level of shot creation plus the outfit around them is unready and not talented enough to stay out of the Play-In Tournament.

 

Only teams with stars do anything unforgettable. The Pacers are on the verge of becoming the NBA’s biggest spoilers.  Remember when that was the Heat two and five years ago?

 

But what about the differences between the Cavs and the Heat? Simplifying things: they are Air Force One at full strength, and the Heat is a commercial airliner. Additionally, Cleveland’s Game 2 loss is a perfect example: Mitchell was an unstoppable force and Max Strus plus Allen had big-time contributions. Jimmy Butler was the last person who wore Heat colors and could carry inferior players. On top of that, Butler was also instrumental in helping the Warriors, his new team, defeat the hosting Timberwolves on Tuesday while Stephen Curry left early in the second quarter with a hamstring strain.

 

 The Heat will only take the next step when they find someone else to handle the responsibilities of being the guy. If they know what’s good for them, they’ll find someone who can also get their offense into triggers quicker to exploit Adebayo’s athleticism to the highest power.

 

Being a cute team is not enough for the hardest-working, best-conditioned, most professional, unselfish, toughest, meanest, nastiest team in the NBA.

 

Why Cameron Wake Belongs in the Dolphins’ Ring of Honor

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Honoring Legends: Celebrating the Players Who Defined Dolphins Football

The Miami Dolphins have only retired three jersey numbers in franchise history—Bob Griese’s #12, Dan Marino’s #13, and Larry Csonka’s #39. Instead, the team has built its legacy through the Ring of Honor, an exclusive recognition bestowed upon those who have made lasting contributions to the franchise.

Though numbers like #54 (Zach Thomas) and #99 (Jason Taylor) have not been officially retired, they’ve been effectively taken out of circulation—a quiet but powerful nod to the immense impact those players had on the Dolphins’ identity, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

With 23 players and just two coaches inducted, the Ring of Honor remains a high standard—one that’s not handed out lightly. But the time has come for another Dolphins defender to take his rightful place among these legends.

Another name that belongs in that exclusive circle of greatness is Cameron Wake.

His number remains in circulation, but his legacy is worthy of permanent recognition in the Dolphins’ Ring of Honor.

Humble Beginnings at Penn State

Long before Cameron Wake terrorized quarterbacks on Sundays, he was just an overlooked college prospect trying to find his place at Penn State. Recruited as a linebacker, Wake—then known as Derek Wake—showed flashes of potential, but never quite found his breakout moment in college. He registered modest stats and signed as an undrafted free agent in 2005 before getting cut by the Giants. A disappointment that might’ve ended the story for most players.

But not for Cam.

A Star is Born in the CFL

After a brief and uneventful stint with the New York Giants, Wake found himself out of football and working odd jobs to stay afloat. Refusing to give up on his dream, Wake reinvented himself in the Canadian Football League, signing with the BC Lions in 2007. It was there he fully transformed—not just into a professional athlete, but into a force of nature.

Wake dominated the CFL like few ever had. In his rookie year, he led the league in sacks and earned CFL Most Outstanding Rookie. He followed that up with back-to-back Most Outstanding Defensive Player awards in 2007 and 2008. He wasn’t just good—he was undeniable.

CFL statistics

Year Team Games Tackles Interceptions Fumbles
GP GS Cmb Sck PD Int Yds Avg Lng TD FF FR Yds TD
2007 BC 18 18 72 16.0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 3 0 0 0
2008 BC 18 18 65 23.0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 5 3 45 1
Total 36 36 137 39.0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 8 3 45 1

He used his time in Canada to sharpen his craft, build his body, and prepare for a second shot at the NFL.

The Dolphins Take a Chance

In 2009, the Miami Dolphins bet on a CFL breakout star others had ignored—and it paid off in a big way.

Wake exploded onto the scene with his relentless motor, explosive first step, and ability to bend around tackles like a heat-seeking missile. He quickly evolved into one of the NFL’s elite pass rushers, compiling 98 sacks over 10 seasons in Miami, the second-most in franchise history, trailing only Hall of Famer Jason Taylor.

Wake didn’t just get stats—he made statements. His 4.5-sack game against the Cardinals in 2012 remains one of the most dominant single-game defensive performances in team history. And his Halloween walk-off safety in overtime against the Bengals in 2013? That’s not just a highlight—it’s part of Dolphins lore.

Here’s a closer look at just how consistently productive he was:

Year Games Sacks Tackles (Total/Solo) FF FR INT
2009 14 5.5 23 / 19 1 0 0
2010 16 14.0 57 / 48 3 0 0
2011 16 8.5 42 / 37 0 0 0
2012 16 15.0 53 / 38 3 0 0
2013 15 8.5 42 / 37 2 1 0
2014 16 11.5 38 / 32 3 1 0
2015 7 7.0 9 / 7 4 0 0
2016 16 11.5 29 / 22 5 0 1
2017 16 10.5 36 / 28 0 0 0
2018 14 6.0 36 / 21 1 0 0
2019 9 (TEN) 2.5 4 / 3 1 0 0

  • 100.5 sacks

  • 364 total tackles (282 solo)

  • 22 forced fumbles

  • 2 fumble recoveries

  • 16 pass deflections

  • 1 interception

  • NFL Awards
    • First-team All-Pro (2012)
    • 3× Second-team All-Pro (2010, 2014, 2016)
    • 5× Pro Bowl (2010, 2012–2014, 2016)

Wake’s 100th sack came as a member of the Tennessee Titans, and just like many of his sacks, it was quite memorable.

Cameron Wake’s 100th Career Sack

A Leader, a Warrior, a Legend

More than just numbers, Wake was a moment-maker—a guy who delivered in clutch situations and brought the same intensity to every snap, even when the team around him faltered. He was a consistent spark during some of the Dolphins’ darkest years, never coasting, never complaining, always competing.

Even in his later years, battling injuries and age, Wake remained productive and dangerous. He earned five Pro Bowl selections (2010, 2012–2014, 2016), was named First-Team All-Pro in 2012, and earned Second-Team All-Pro honors three times. That’s elite company—among pass rushers of his era, few matched his blend of longevity, leadership, and big-play ability.

More Than Just a Player

What made Wake special wasn’t just what he did on the field. It was who he was off it.

He led by example in the locker room, mentored young players, and set the tone during training camps and Sunday warmups. He was also active in the Miami community, contributing to numerous charitable causes and youth organizations. His legacy isn’t just in sacks or highlight reels—it’s in lives impacted.

As a young fan, I remember mimicking his sack celebration in my living room after every big play. He wasn’t just a favorite—he was a hero. One memory that still sticks with me is his and Ndamukong Suh’s sack on Bryce Petty. I wanted that 100th sack for him in a Dolphins uniform so badly. But whether he finished at 98 or 108, the impact is the same.

A Fitting Place Among the Greats

Cameron Wake’s story transcends stats and accolades. He embodies everything the Miami Dolphins claim to stand for—resilience, excellence, leadership, and heart.

He overcame every obstacle: undrafted, released, doubted, and overlooked. And in doing so, he became not only one of the best pass rushers in franchise history, but also one of its most inspiring figures.

Adding Wake to the Dolphins’ Ring of Honor isn’t just symbolic—it’s a long-overdue acknowledgment of his greatness.

He wore aqua and orange with pride and was a beacon of consistency throughout the 2010s.

The only injustice done to Cam was the team’s inability to surround him with a true contender. Week in and week out, Wake gave everything he had—emerging as one of the greatest defensive ends not just in Dolphins history, but in NFL history.

Now, it’s time for the Dolphins to return the favor—and give him the permanent recognition he so clearly deserves.

Put 91 in the Ring.

Dwyane Wade vs. James Harden: Why D-Wade Will Always Be Better

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Dwyane Wade vs. James Harden: Why D-Wade Will Always Be Better

By age 35, both Dwyane Wade and James Harden had carved out Hall of Fame careers. Wade, revered for his midrange mastery, slashing brilliance, and defensive grit, and Harden, a statistical marvel who redefined offensive efficiency with step-backs and free throws. But when the lights shine brightest—when reputations are forged in fire and banners are raised—Wade simply stands taller. This isn’t a spreadsheet debate. It’s about legacy. It’s about moments. It’s about what truly lasts.

Accolades by 35: Rings Matter More Than MVP Votes

Let’s start with the scoreboard that matters most: championships.

Dwyane Wade by 35:

  • 3× NBA Champion (2006, 2012, 2013)
  • 1× Finals MVP (2006)
  • 12× All-Star
  • 8× All-NBA (2 First Team, 3 Second, 3 Third)
  • 3× All-Defensive Team

James Harden by 35:

  • 0× NBA Champion
  • 0× Finals MVP
  • 1× MVP (2018)
  • 11× All-Star
  • 7× All-NBA (6 First Team)

Harden’s accolades reflect individual brilliance, but Wade’s tell a broader story—team greatness, postseason impact, and sustained excellence on both ends. He was the undisputed alpha of a title team in 2006, the steady veteran in 2012–13, and the bridge between eras in Miami. Harden, despite multiple super teams and MVP-caliber teammates, never returned to the Finals after losing to Wade and the Heat in 2012—and that’s not a coincidence, it’s a pattern.

Wade wasn’t just a scorer—he was a relentless defender. He led all guards in blocks multiple seasons, routinely guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter threat. Harden, meanwhile, became notorious for defensive lowlights and lapses in effort. One played both ends with pride. The other often coasted on one side of the floor.

Statistical Showdown: Harden’s Volume vs. Wade’s Two-Way Value

Compare their production by age 35:

Wade (2003–2017):

  • Regular Season: 22.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 5.6 APG, 48.4% FG, 1.6 SPG, 0.9 BPG
  • Playoffs: 22.3 PPG, 48.0% FG in 171 games
  • Advanced: 23.7 PER, +5.0 BPM
Harden (2009–2025):
  • Regular Season: 24.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 7.2 APG, 43.9% FG, 1.5 SPG, 0.5 BPG
  • Playoffs: 22.4 PPG, 42.2% FG in 165 games
  • Advanced: 23.7 PER, +5.9 BPM

Harden’s edge in volume and passing is clear. But Wade was more efficient, more versatile, and far more balanced. His field goal percentage was significantly higher despite a tougher shot diet and fewer gimmicks (no foul-hunting theatrics here). And while Harden’s playoff numbers fall off, Wade’s stayed consistent—even elevated—against the league’s best defenses. Stat sheets are useful, but context matters.

Harden’s reliance on drawing fouls, isolation dribbles, and high-usage systems helped inflate his stats—but also made his game harder to replicate under playoff intensity. Wade’s style, built on athleticism, footwork, and feel, translated under any system, in any era.

Game 7 Ghost: Harden’s Glaring Weakness

Playoff performance separates the good from the great—and this is where Harden’s legacy takes a hit. He’s 3–4 in Game 7s, and his numbers in those games are troubling:

Game 7 Averages: 19.3 PPG, 7.9 APG, sub-40% FG

  • 2018 vs. Warriors: 2-of-13 from 3 in a 27-straight-miss debacle
  • 2023 vs. Celtics: 9 points, 5 turnovers in a critical loss
  • 2025 vs. Nuggets: -29 plus-minus in a home elimination game

From Brooklyn to Philly to L.A., Harden has often shrunk in the biggest moments. He’s had more than enough talent around him—Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard—and still, no return to the Finals. The common thread? James Harden.

Harden scored 10 points with 6 turnovers in a closeout game at home. Wade dropped 43 in a must-win Finals game on the road. That’s the difference.

Wade: A Proven Closer and Championship Pillar

Now flip the lens.

In 2006, Wade averaged 34.7 PPG in the Finals, singlehandedly toppling the Mavericks in one of the greatest postseason performances ever. His Game 3 heroics sparked a 4-0 run to clinch Miami’s first title. At 24, he was already a closer. In 2012 and 2013, he adapted his game next to LeBron James and still played a critical role in back-to-back titles, never demanding the spotlight—just delivering in it.

He never avoided the big moment. He owned it.

  • 3–2 career record in the Finals
  • No flameouts, no quit narratives
  • Played hurt, sacrificed ego, and still produced

Wade was a competitor first, star second. He took charges, chased blocks, and never let legacy moments slip through his fingers. That’s what separates champions from stat kings.

Legacy Check: What Defines Greatness?

Harden will retire as a Hall of Famer—his offensive resume is too good not to. But the story will always include caveats: no rings, postseason letdowns, and exits that felt more like escapes. Even in his MVP season, the conversation was about how far Houston could go in spite of his playoff history.

Wade? He’s enshrined in both Springfield and NBA lore. A cultural icon in Miami. A Finals MVP. A clutch legend. A two-way dynamo.

So let’s call it what it is:

If you want numbers, Harden wins some arguments.
If you want winners, leaders, and clutch greatness—Wade never loses them.

Until Harden rewrites his postseason script—and that window is closing fast—D-Wade will always be better.

When the careers are over and the banners hang, one name echoes in championship lore. The other echoes in “what ifs.”

Wade didn’t just play in the big moments—he defined them. That’s why he’ll always be better.

What’s Wrong with Sandy Alcantara? A Deep Dive into His 2025 Struggles

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What’s Wrong with Sandy Alcantara? A Deep Dive into His 2025 Struggles

Just two years removed from a Cy Young Award, Sandy Alcantara now finds himself mired in one of the worst stretches of his career. The 6-foot-5 Marlins ace, once revered for his dominance, durability, and pinpoint command, has opened the 2025 season with a 2–3 record, an alarming 8.31 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and nearly as many walks (17) as strikeouts (19) over 26 innings. For a pitcher who once threw 228.2 innings with a 2.28 ERA in 2022, the drop-off has been nothing short of staggering. So, what’s behind the rapid unraveling? Let’s dig in.

Statistical data found via BaseballSavant

⚾️ What’s Going Wrong with Sandy Alcantara?

1. Command Is Collapsing

The most glaring issue? Alcantara’s walk rate has ballooned to 14.2%, placing him in the 11th percentile league-wide. This isn’t just bad—it’s among the worst in baseball. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has cratered from 4.1 in 2022 to 1.1 in 2025, suggesting a pitcher not just nibbling, but losing control altogether. He’s falling behind in counts and often having to groove pitches, leading to barrels and crooked numbers.

Something to ask about his lack of command is his lowered arm slot, it is down to 31 degrees, three degrees less than that of 2022 and 2023.

2. Velocity Holding, But Command Diminishes Its Value

While Alcantara’s average fastball velocity remains strong at 97.0 mph (89th percentile), it isn’t nearly as effective when hitters know it’s coming. His fastball run value is -2, and batters have a .419 xwOBA against it.

The four-seamer’s whiff rate has dropped from 24.2% in 2022 to just 11.1% in 2025, and its xSLG has ballooned to .602, a sign that it’s no longer missing barrels. Velocity isn’t enough—command and deception are missing.

3. Sinker & Changeup Aren’t Getting Results

In 2022, Alcantara’s sinker and changeup formed one of the most devastating ground-ball inducing combos in baseball. This year, the results are dramatically worse, despite similar usage and velocity.

Pitch Comparison – 2022 vs 2025

Pitch Year AVG SLG wOBA Whiff% Put Away% Run Value
Sinker 2022 .264 .342 .299 11.1% 15.7% +9
2025 .333 .500 .415 10.5% 6.3% -1
Changeup 2022 .146 .195 .170 34.6% 27.1% +27
2025 .207 .310 .269 37.9% 10.3% -0

Both pitches have lost vertical separation, are missing fewer bats, and are getting hit harder—especially the sinker. Even the changeup, once a wipeout pitch, has lost effectiveness across every category. Ground balls aren’t saving him either as he’s constantly getting barreled.

4. Predictability in Pitch Mix

Alcantara continues to lean heavily on a familiar trio: changeup (27%), sinker (26%), and four-seam fastball (20%). While that worked in 2022, the predictable sequencing has caught up with him. Hitters are sitting on the sinker or change, knowing they’ll likely see one early in the count.

His slider and curveball remain underused—despite the slider generating a 39.3% whiff rate this year. Except when the slider gets hit, it gets hit quite hard with an xSLG of .877.

The curveball, while used just 10.8% of the time, has a microscopic .195 xwOBA against it and 28.6% whiff rate, suggesting it’s an untapped weapon in his arsenal. In 2022, Alcantara’s offspeed pitches had elite run value—this year, they’re just average.

5. Underlying Metrics Confirm the Struggles

Statcast paints a grim picture in 2025—and the percentile rankings only emphasize how far he’s fallen from his Cy Young peak.

Metric 2022 2025 2025 Percentile
xERA 2.90 6.39 8th percentile
Hard-Hit Rate 38.5% 46.4% 23rd percentile
Barrel % 5.3% 10.7% 17th percentile
Avg Exit Velocity 87.8 mph 91.0 mph 28th percentile
Whiff % 25.6% 25.1% 50th percentile
K% 23.4% 15.7% 20th percentile

His chase rate is down to just 24.1% (23rd percentile), indicating hitters aren’t being fooled by pitches out of the zone.

These indicators paint a picture of a pitcher who’s no longer fooling hitters, missing barrels, or winning counts—and opponents are punishing everything in the zone.

The 46.3 swing percentage also shows more patience from the hitters he is facing.

Can He Turn It Around?

Sandy Alcantara is still only 29, and his raw stuff hasn’t disappeared. But between shaky command, predictable sequencing, and ineffective secondaries, he looks lost on the mound. The Marlins’ defense and lack of run support only magnify the problem. To turn things around, Sandy needs to:

  • Regain feel for the strike zone

  • Introduce sharper breaking pitches into his game plan

  • Vary his sequencing and approach to hitters

The tools are still there, but the margin for error is gone—and unless something changes quickly, his season could spiral even further from his Cy Young form.

What Does This Mean for His Future?

Sandy and all Marlins stars will always be the center of trade talks, but these performances aren’t doing anything to bolster his value, if anything it is being diminished. This could be seen as a win for the Marlins as they can maybe keep Sandy with their young bolstering core, but regardless Sandy must improve.

Twice this season, Alcantara has allowed at least six runs in three or fewer innings—an alarming stat for a pitcher who once prided himself on being the rock of the rotation. After Tuesday’s latest meltdown, he didn’t mince words.

“I feel good physically, but I feel terrible just being out there and having the same result and I can’t do nothing when my teammates need me the most,” Alcantara told MLB.com. “I know this is a process, but I’m tired. I’m tired of having the same success out there, and I don’t feel happy about it.”

The quote was telling—not just because of the frustration, but because Alcantara described his performance as “success,” likely a translation slip that just shows how disoriented and defeated he feels mentally. Just two years removed from being the league’s most dependable workhorse, he now finds himself at a crossroads.

Sandy is coming off tommy john and that is not an easy journey, yet he has still underperformed.

The Marlins entered the year unsure whether to hold or shop the 29-year-old righty, who is under contract for $17.3 million in both 2025 and 2026, with a $21 million team option for 2027. But at this rate, his trade value is at a low point, and a move seems unlikely unless he rebounds.

Manager Clayton McCullough offered support, but also an honest assessment:

“We just have to kind of go back to work there and try to figure that out. It’s so uncharacteristic for him… It was really a struggle from the first inning tonight, just never really could catch a rhythm and get settled in,” McCullough said. “Some pitches that were kind of more heart of the plate, they put some good swings on. But I think for me, it’s just as much trying to get back to commanding and executing pitches at the rate that we’re all accustomed to.”

“We’ll put our heads together with him and just see what we think is the next best step to try to right the ship a little bit. We certainly all know there’s a much better version there.”

That better version feels distant right now. But if Alcantara can rediscover his command and adjust his pitch usage, a turnaround isn’t out of the question. The tools, velocity, and track record all suggest the potential remains.

Whether that version resurfaces this season or not could determine not only the fate of the Marlins, but Alcantara’s standing among the game’s elite.

 

Panthers in Familiar Situation With Chance to Close Out Series Against Lightning

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Tampa, Fla. — Coming off the high of a late comeback win in Game 4, the Florida Panthers — holding a 3-1 series lead — will have the chance to eliminate the Tampa Bay Lightning and advance to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs on Wednesday night in Tampa.

 

The opportunity at hand feels oddly familiar to last season.

 

In the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Panthers had the chance to sweep the Lightning in a road Game 4 at Amalie Arena.

 

Facing elimination at home, Tampa kept their season alive by taking down Florida 6-3, before being eventually falling to the eventual champions 6-1 in Game 5.

 

En route to their Stanley Cup Win victory last season, the Panthers played in nine elimination games — all of those being potential series clinchers for them. They went 4-5 in said games.

 

“Well, it doesn’t make any of it easier,” Panthers head coach Paul Maurice said of his team’s experience playing in potential series clinchers. “We’ve got nine guys — 10 guys who’ve been here for a couple of years, shared experiences… You can go back and relate to different styles of game that are played in potential elimination games. I think the emotional part is better understood to you coming to the rink.”

 

“You get up three nothing on Edmonton and now with the prize potentially at the end of the game — we learned a lot, we got beat 8-1,” Maurice spoke of the team’s journey last postseason. “But we’ve also had games that we’ve come in and been  strong and been able to win. So that part has to become secondary — the context (of the scenario) has to be secondary. That’s what we should have learned. We’ll try to reinforce that tonight… the game is the most important thing tonight.”

 

The Panthers and Lightning have met in the postseason four of the past five years, with the winner of the series reaching the Stanley Cup Final each time (Tampa 2021,2022; Florida 2024).

 

This rendition of the Battle of Florida has seen everything: major penalties, late comebacks, multiple suspensions. It’s no secret that these two teams don’t like each other.

 

“It’s definitely a rivalry that has been built,” Panthers forward Carter Verhaeghe said. “I feel like anytime we come in here — [when] they come to us — there’s going to be some sort of something like that (aggressive and physical hockey.”

 

Looking to close out the series, the Panthers will be without top-pair defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who was suspended two games for elbowing Lightning forward Brandon Hagel in the second period of Game 4. Ekblad will also be out of a potential Game 6 in Sunrise or Game 1 of the second round if the Panthers were to win  Wednesday night.

 

The Lightning have ruled out Hagel for Game 5.

 

With Ekblad out of the lineup, Uvis Balinskis — who played in Game 1 and 2 of the series in the absence of Ekblad who was serving the remainder of a previous 20-game suspension  —  will return to the lineup.

 

Balinskis appeared in 76 regular games during the regular season, scoring four goals and 18 points (4-14-18).

 

“It’s exciting to be back in the line,” Balinskis said. “Playoff hockey is very different [from] the regular season and it’s way more exciting.”

 

Other than Balinskis drawing in for Ekblad, the Panthers will run the same lineup as they did in Game 4.

 

Wednesday night’s Game 5 puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. EST from Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL.

 

Projected Lines

Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart

Rodrigues – Bennett – Tkachuk

Luostarinen – Lundell – Marchand

Greer – Sturm – Boqvist

 

Forsling – Jones

Mikkola – Kulikov

Balinskis – Schmidt

 

Bobrovsky (Starter)

Vanecek

 

Expected Scratches: Samoskevich, Nosek, Gadjovich, Megna, Ekblad (suspension)

Can the Heat Justify Giving Tyler Herro a Max Deal?

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From Bubble Breakout to Big Decisions

Tyler Herro first captured the NBA spotlight during the 2020 Bubble Playoffs, where he played beyond his years as a 20-year-old rookie on a title-contending Miami Heat squad. Averaging 16.0 points per game across 21 postseason contests — including a legendary 37-point outburst against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals — Herro quickly earned a reputation as a fearless shot-maker and rising star. His swagger, scoring ability, and poise on the big stage made him a household name and a core piece of the Heat’s future. But five seasons later, the question lingers: Has Herro grown into the franchise cornerstone Miami hoped for — or simply a really good scorer on a team still searching for its identity?

Contract Details

With a $149.7 million extension on the table this October, the Miami Heat must decide if Tyler Herro is worth a deal that would pay him $50+ million annually through 2030.

Tyler Herro isn’t new to big-money conversations — he already secured a 4-year, $130 million extension from the Heat in 2022, the same offseason Darius Garland landed his five-year, $193 million max rookie extension with Cleveland. At the time, both guards were seen as franchise cornerstones. Now, three years later, Garland’s contract is trending toward value while Herro’s future hangs in the balance — especially with a new deal potentially paying him $50+ million per year starting in 2027-28.

Starting October 1, the Miami Heat can offer Tyler Herro a three-year, $149.7 million contract extension — a deal that would eventually pay the 25-year-old guard $50 million a year. Herro is already locked in for $64 million over the next two seasons, but the question now is whether Pat Riley and the front office believe he’s worth max money through 2031. If no extension is signed by October 20, Herro becomes eligible for an even bigger four-year, $206.9 million extension in the 2026 offseason.

Herro isn’t ducking the conversation.

“Everyone knows I want to be here long term,” Herro said. “I’m excited to see what the organization has to say. We’ll see if they want me here as much as I want to be here.”

On paper, Herro’s case is compelling — an ascending scorer with All-Star flashes and a defined role in Erik Spoelstra’s offense. But for a franchise facing a possible roster shake-up and already burdened with large contracts, the price tag might give them pause.

What the Numbers Say

Data found via Basketball Reference.

Herro just wrapped up a strong 2024-25 campaign, averaging 23.9 points, 5.5 assists, and 5.2 rebounds per game while shooting 47.2% from the field, 37.5% from three, and 87.8% from the free-throw line. It was arguably his most complete season yet — with career highs in scoring, assists, and efficiency.

 

Season G PTS AST REB FG% 3P% FT% eFG% PER WS
2024-25 77 23.9 5.5 5.2 47.2 37.5 87.8 56.3 19.7 7.4
Career 361 19.4 4.0 5.0 44.8 38.2 87.4 53.4 15.9 19.9

Herro finished the season top 20 in scoring league-wide and showed growth as a playmaker. His career-best 56.3% effective field goal percentage signals improved shot selection and efficiency — critical traits for a lead guard in a modern offense.

Playoff History and Clutch Performance: Still Room to Grow

Despite his postseason heroics as a rookie in the 2020 Bubble (16.0 PPG in 21 games), Herro’s playoff track record since has been mixed.

 

Year G PTS FG% 3P% REB AST
2019-20 21 16.0 .433 .375 5.1 3.7
2021-22 15 12.6 .409 .229 3.9 2.8
2024-25 4 17.8 .415 .310 3.5 2.8
Career 50 14.6 .414 .328 4.2 3.3

While he’s averaged 14.6 points over 50 playoff games, his shooting percentages — particularly from three (32.8%) — have dipped under pressure. That was shown at a premium this season, as Herro was one of the worst performers in the clutch amongst the entire NBA. In the last five minutes of games with the score within five points, he appeared in 35 such contests, averaging just 3.0 minutes per opportunity with a Net Rating of -0.7. His True Shooting Percentage (TS%) in those moments was an alarming 37.0%, and he posted a 31.9% eFG, with a usage rate of 30.9% — suggesting he wasn’t shying away from the moment, but also not converting. For someone commanding a near-max deal, that’s something Miami has to weigh.

Defensive Concerns

Statistical Data found via- CraftedNBA.Com

While Tyler Herro continues to blossom offensively — ranking in the 95th percentile in offensive load, 96th in creation, and 95th in overall CraftedOPM — his defensive impact is still a glaring weakness for the Miami Heat.

Herro posted a Defensive Rating of 112.6 this season, a figure that becomes even more problematic when paired with his 9th percentile CraftedDPM (Defensive Plus-Minus). He struggles to generate defensive events — sitting in just the 19th percentile in deflections, 13th percentile in block rate, and 18th percentile in defensive rebounding. Opponents actively exploit him in pick-and-rolls, and his rDTOV (rotational defensive turnovers forced) of -0.5 ranks in the 12th percentile, suggesting minimal disruption to opposing offenses.

That liability was on full display in Game 1 of Miami’s playoff series against Cleveland. The Cavaliers hunted Herro on switches, forcing him to defend elite scorers and sharp-shooting wings in constant motion. They scored 64 points on the 36 possessions where Herro was targeted, and Ty Jerome — a Sixth Man of the Year finalist — exploded late to seal the win.

Herro’s lack of versatility (34th percentile) and limited rim protection (54th percentile Rim Defense, but -1.2 value) force Erik Spoelstra into a tough dilemma: keep his most dynamic scorer on the floor or close games with stronger defenders.

This also helped the Heat blow numerous leads as they didn’t have a #1 guy to take over late, both on offense and defense. Make a play and then hit a big shot, every night they were trying to find the guy who would step up, a similar theme for the last few seasons (other than playoff Jimmy). Can you pay someone the max value contract if they can’t produce like it?

So How Does Tyler Compare?

But to fairly assess his value, we have to look beyond box scores and examine those most similar to him: Darius Garland, Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, and Anfernee Simons.

Darius Garland signed a near-identical max extension and plays a similar offensive role — a high-usage, shot-creating guard. But what separates Garland is his role as a clear No. 2 option behind Donovan Mitchell, a willing facilitator with elite passing vision and the ability to bend defenses without needing to be a volume scorer. In Cleveland’s system, he’s not expected to carry the entire offensive burden — just play off Mitchell and make others better. That’s a more complementary — and sustainable — usage level than Herro’s high-creation rate suggests.

  • Contract Terms: 5 yr(s) / $197,230,450
  • Garland has a max hit of $44 million which would be a fair valuation for Herro, given Miami adds a superstar.

Jamal Murray, like Herro, is a score-first guard with questionable defense, but the gulf lies in championship pedigree. Murray is a proven playoff riser who has consistently elevated his game alongside Nikola Jokić on the biggest stage. He doesn’t just put up numbers — he wins with them. That’s a level of impact Herro has yet to show in deep postseason runs, where his defensive limitations become more exploitable and his scoring comes with more resistance.

  • Contract Terms: 4 yr(s) / $207,845,568
  • The same one Herro will be up for if Miami waits until the 2026 offseason.

Devin Booker, despite a string of injuries, has cemented himself as one of the league’s premier scorers. He can carry an offense, bend schemes, and create for others. Booker’s usage and skill set are simply more advanced, and he’s shown the ability to toggle between lead guard and off-ball assassin. Herro doesn’t have Booker’s isolation gravity or midrange prowess, nor the size and strength to consistently take on top defensive assignments.

  • Contract Terms: 4 yr(s) / $220,441,984
  • Part of a failed Suns super team, interesting to see where he may end up.

Anfernee Simons, the most apt comparison. Like Herro, Simons is a volume scorer on a non-contending team, often tasked with doing more than he’s truly capable of. Neither is a true No. 1 option, and both may be miscast as franchise centerpieces when their best role is likely as a No. 2 or 3 scorer next to a primary initiator. They both struggle defensively, provide little off-ball impact when not scoring, and operate best in a freedom-first system. The difference? Simons’ $100 million deal is more palatable for his role and output — whereas Herro’s higher price tag demands greater two-way contribution or playoff impact.

  • Contract Terms: 4 yr(s) / $100,000,000
  • Simons is in a very similar situation, possible trade target, extension decision looming, not a proven #1.

So where does Herro stand?

Herro’s’ looking to get paid like a lead guard, produces like a second option, remains inconsistent in the clutch, and defends like a fringe starter. That financial and on-court identity crisis is the crux of Miami’s dilemma. They can’t build a contender around a guard who needs the ball but doesn’t elevate others or defend. Yet they also can’t maximize Herro unless they minimize his usage and surround him with dominant two-way stars.

  • on potential extension during 4/30 Exit interview: “Big deal? Not the biggest deal but I would love to be here. The front office, the organization, I think the city, everyone knows how much I love Miami. I’ve been here since I was 18, 19, I got two kids here, so. This is really home for me. I love being here. Basketball is why I’m here at the end of the day, I want to win and I know how badly this organization and this city wants to win. So, I would love to be here. We’ll see what happens. If it doesn’t get done in October I think we could get it done next summer, just be a little bit higher price. So we’ll see.”

The Max: Still Too Much?

The Miami Heat can offer Tyler Herro a three-year, $149.7 million contract extension as early as October 1st.

If both sides wait until the 2026 offseason, Herro would be eligible for a four-year, $207 million extension.

And if he makes an All-NBA team next season, Herro could even qualify for the supermax — a five-year deal worth up to $380 million.

The question is: should the Heat commit to Herro at those numbers?

Is there a path where a Herro extension works? 
He’s only 25, continues to improve, and could grow into a superstar. Yet the longer the Heat wait, the more costly it could be.

The Verdict: Worth the Max?

If Miami wants to extend Herro, it has to come at a reasonable price, one that makes both the Heat and Herro happy.

Tyler Herro won’t have a public fallout like Jimmy Butler did, but that deadline gives the Heat a window to shift their direction — and potentially his future — before the season settles in.

If Miami can package expiring contracts and land a superstar, Herro’s value rises to the level of someone like Darius Garland. But if the front office stands pat and treats Herro as its No. 1 option moving forward, it signals a lack of clear direction — and that’s a concerning outlook for the team’s future.

Yes, Miami can justify a big extension for Herro if they make a significant move, but they’re already paying Bam Adebayo $55 million annually. Without added star power, tying up near-max money in Herro, a player who hasn’t consistently produced in the postseason or on both ends of the court, could hurt the team long term as they would just be “running it back” once again. Herro might want to be the face of the franchise — but Miami needs him to be the foundation, not just the frame.

Tyler Herro isn’t a max player in the traditional sense. He’s not the engine of a championship team, not the go-to closer in crunch time, and not someone who elevates teammates on the defensive end. But at just 25 years old and coming off his best season yet, he’s far too valuable to let walk for nothing.

So, what’s the solution?

If the Heat see Herro as part of the future — but not the future — a compromise extension in the $40–44 million annual range makes the most sense. It’s still a huge payday but gives Miami flexibility to chase a star via trade or free agency. Ideally, the deal would include incentives tied to playoff wins or All-Star appearances, or even a team option, protecting Miami in case Herro plateaus.

That’s saying Herro would be down for this, might be more plausible if Miami lets his contract play out.

 If Herro and Miami wait until 2026, his next max offer would rise even higher, and Herro would likely feel disrespected without it. Locking him in now — at a discount — gives the Heat both trade value and financial control, even if they don’t view him as a long-term cornerstone.

But if Miami passes on an extension? Then Herro may become less about “can we win with him?” and more about “how can we use him to get the guy we can win with?”

An interesting decision looms but Miami must make a decision, sooner rather than later.

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Swept Away: The Heat’s Historic Collapse and Uncertain Future

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Swept Away

Just as quickly as the Heat’s postseason hope ignited, it was extinguished.

Their reward for surviving the chaos of the regular season and muscling their way through the Play-In? A brutal reality check against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who swept them out of the first round in emphatic — and historic — fashion.

It wasn’t just a sweep. It was an annihilation.

The Miami Heat are now the first team in NBA history to lose back-to-back playoff games by 30 or more points — and they did it at home. Game 3 was a 37-point blowout. Game 4? A 55-point humiliation. The largest margin of defeat in a playoff sweep ever — a stunning -122-point differential over four games.

This wasn’t just losing. This was surrender.

“I try not to ever use the word quit or choke. This is quitting at its finest,” Charles Barkley on TNT.

It’s now eight straight playoff losses at home for the Miami Heat — and this miserable, chaotic, fragmented season has finally come to a close after the biggest sweep in NBA history.

The Cavaliers embarrassed them. The series wasn’t close for a single quarter. Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Jarret Allen, and Evan Mobley showcased youth, speed, and cohesion. Meanwhile, Miami looked disinterested, overmatched, and outclassed. Bam Adebayo disappeared, Herro regressed and newly acquired Andrew Wiggins looked like he didn’t even want to be on the court.

A Culture Check

If this season was a testament to the resilience of Heat Culture, then this postseason was a brutal reminder of its limits. Grit and heart can only take you so far when the talent gap is this wide.

Herro, despite flashes, is still inconsistent and a liability on defense. Bam Adebayo continues to anchor the defense but hasn’t taken the offensive leap many hoped for. Erik Spoelstra, while still elite, may finally be running out of magic to conjure wins from this flawed, stagnant core.

On top of all this, there were many questionable quotes from the Heat’s stars in pregame and postgame pressers.

Bam Adebayo – “There are going to be a lot of changes this summer, knowing how the guy with the silver hair works. Be prepared for that.”

Tyler Herro – “Obviously, I know I need Jimmy to win. If we had Jimmy right now, I feel like it’d be a completely different situation. We probably wouldn’t even be the 8th seed.”

Spoelstra – “These last two games were embarrassing. We were irrational as we usually are, thinking we could win this series. We showed we weren’t ready for that.”

And now? The questions are piling up:

  • Should Miami pay Herro a max contract?

  • Who stays and who goes?

  • Can they move off the Duncan Robinson and Terry Rozier contracts?

  • Will they extend Davion Mitchell?

  • What will Pat Riley say in the presser?

  • Who do the Heat draft?

  • What superstar will Miami be linked to — and will they finally land one?

These questions are looming — and the answers won’t take long to start trickling in.

What’s Next?

Miami faces a true crossroads. For years, they’ve been stuck in the middle — good enough to compete, never good enough to win it all. They’ve chased stars who never arrived, relied on internal development that’s plateaued, and leaned on a culture that can no longer mask this many flaws.

Pat Riley and the front office have tough decisions to make. Is it time to rebuild? Or swing big — really big — for a final push with what little remains of their core?

One thing is certain:

The Heat made history this year — just not the kind they wanted to.

Oh, and don’t forget, Boston is beatable, even without Jimmy.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: “It shouldn’t have been like this, I know that for damn sure”: The Heat were swept and humiliated by the bloodthirsty Cavaliers in the season finale

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Pat Riley sat near courtside, looking as if he’d seen a ghost, but he was eyeballing the Heat’s corpse on the court named after him. His expression was similar to Vito Corleone’s when he told Bonesera, “Look how they massacred my boy.”

 

They quit early into the second quarter because they were a team that didn’t deserve to share the court with Cleveland as they went down 45 points with 80 seconds to go before intermission. It was likely the sorriest performance by a home team in an elimination game that all 19,000+ fans present will ever see.

 

Darius Garland was absent for the Cavs again (toe injury), but it wasn’t felt because the team was as loaded as a fleet of warships headed for conflict. 

 

Jarrett Allen was the best big man on the floor by far. He led his squad with cuts plus putbacks, and all six of his steals came in the first half. Donovan Mitchell sprayed four triples. The rest of their teammates converted 51.5% of attempts. 

 

The Heat tied their lowest-scoring half of the season (33), and it was the third-largest difference at halftime (39) in playoff history. Yet the Cavaliers kept lashing, even against the background players, raising their lead to 60.

 

Inexplicably, the fans stuck around for the third quarter to witness Ty Jerome put the Cavs ahead by 48 with a 36-foot pull-up shot to end the period. They started leaving about four minutes into the fourth when they could’ve gotten an earlier headstart on traffic. 

 

Tyler Herro only scored in the game’s first minute and missed his next nine shots in a row. Bam Adebayo was a JAG. And Nikola Jović’s 24 digits were an afterthought. 

 

Coach Erik Spoelstra said the playoffs were an invaluable experience for Kel’el Ware before tip-off. Yet it felt as useful as making a cruiserweight bulk up to face prime Mike Tyson. After the game, Spoelstra congratulated the Cavs, and said he hoped his players got better from the experience. “Damn, it was humbling… We’re as irrational as we usually are, thinking that we have a chance to win this series, and they showed us why we weren’t ready.”

 

Herro said the consecutive home losses were embarrassing and that there’s “no real consistency in our play.” Adebayo said there would be a lot of changes over the summer.

 

The only thing anyone with rooting interest on the Heat side could look forward to is Riley’s end-of-season presser. 

 

The Cavaliers will carry their bloodlust into round two against the winner of the Indiana-Milwaukee series. The Pacers are up 3-1. It will be the Cavs’ first test of the postseason.  

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: “The schemes are on steroids in the playoffs”: The Heat got annihilated by the Cavaliers in Game 3

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The Cavaliers were as hell-bent as starving Lions when they cornered their next meal. They mentally and emotionally deflated the Heat by crushing them in almost all areas for a 37-point win, taking a 3-0 lead in the series. Despite the Heat’s daring efforts, their season was lost as the visitors ripped off an insurmountable 33-5 first-half run. 

 

Jarrett Allen unsparingly punctured the defense with cuts plus had six second-chance points. Max Strus, De’Andre Hunter and Donovan Mitchell drained 10 3-pointers while the Heat struggled to find prosperity in the lane. It was as abusive as a freakishly long boxer, fighting off the back foot, destroying their tiny opponent with relentless jabs. 

 

Darius Garland, who smack-talked Tyler Herro after Game 2, didn’t play because of a toe injury, yet wasn’t needed as the Cavs were ahead 62-42 at halftime and later made it uglier. The Heat never cut the deficit below 15 in the second half, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. only got a look from coach Erik Spoelstra in garbage time.

 

The top two big men were Allen and Evan Mobley. The former had 16 points on an immaculate seven attempts before intermission, and the latter picked up where he left off after that with a post-up and face-up moves in the second. 

 

Bam Adebayo’s 22 points on 45% shooting, which included a career-high of seven 3-point attempts (four makes), wasn’t good enough, and he had four unforced turnovers.  To make matters worse, he suffered a dangerous fall after Haywood Highsmith accidentally took his legs out while in the air.  Herro got outplayed by Strus and was shut down with face-guard defense, denials and tight help coverage. 

 

As usual, the Cavaliers were bigger, stronger and faster. They ravaged the restricted area, shooting 12.1% above the league average. On top of that, they outrebounded the Heat by 17, and their defense held them to 76.2 points per 100 half-court plays (6th percentile), per Cleaning the Glass.

 

Spoelstra said it was a disappointing day. “We laid an egg today. A big part of it was Cleveland… from a tactical standpoint, I have to do a better job of helping our team offensively.”

 

Herro said he needed to be a better leader. Adebayo said the outcome was embarrassing and there’s no point in looking at film anymore. 

 

The Heat will practice Sunday. Game 4 is on Monday.