What’s Wrong with Sandy Alcantara? A Deep Dive into His 2025 Struggles

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What’s Wrong with Sandy Alcantara? A Deep Dive into His 2025 Struggles

Just two years removed from a Cy Young Award, Sandy Alcantara now finds himself mired in one of the worst stretches of his career. The 6-foot-5 Marlins ace, once revered for his dominance, durability, and pinpoint command, has opened the 2025 season with a 2–3 record, an alarming 8.31 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and nearly as many walks (17) as strikeouts (19) over 26 innings. For a pitcher who once threw 228.2 innings with a 2.28 ERA in 2022, the drop-off has been nothing short of staggering. So, what’s behind the rapid unraveling? Let’s dig in.

Statistical data found via BaseballSavant

⚾️ What’s Going Wrong with Sandy Alcantara?

1. Command Is Collapsing

The most glaring issue? Alcantara’s walk rate has ballooned to 14.2%, placing him in the 11th percentile league-wide. This isn’t just bad—it’s among the worst in baseball. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has cratered from 4.1 in 2022 to 1.1 in 2025, suggesting a pitcher not just nibbling, but losing control altogether. He’s falling behind in counts and often having to groove pitches, leading to barrels and crooked numbers.

Something to ask about his lack of command is his lowered arm slot, it is down to 31 degrees, three degrees less than that of 2022 and 2023.

2. Velocity Holding, But Command Diminishes Its Value

While Alcantara’s average fastball velocity remains strong at 97.0 mph (89th percentile), it isn’t nearly as effective when hitters know it’s coming. His fastball run value is -2, and batters have a .419 xwOBA against it.

The four-seamer’s whiff rate has dropped from 24.2% in 2022 to just 11.1% in 2025, and its xSLG has ballooned to .602, a sign that it’s no longer missing barrels. Velocity isn’t enough—command and deception are missing.

3. Sinker & Changeup Aren’t Getting Results

In 2022, Alcantara’s sinker and changeup formed one of the most devastating ground-ball inducing combos in baseball. This year, the results are dramatically worse, despite similar usage and velocity.

Pitch Comparison – 2022 vs 2025

Pitch Year AVG SLG wOBA Whiff% Put Away% Run Value
Sinker 2022 .264 .342 .299 11.1% 15.7% +9
2025 .333 .500 .415 10.5% 6.3% -1
Changeup 2022 .146 .195 .170 34.6% 27.1% +27
2025 .207 .310 .269 37.9% 10.3% -0

Both pitches have lost vertical separation, are missing fewer bats, and are getting hit harder—especially the sinker. Even the changeup, once a wipeout pitch, has lost effectiveness across every category. Ground balls aren’t saving him either as he’s constantly getting barreled.

4. Predictability in Pitch Mix

Alcantara continues to lean heavily on a familiar trio: changeup (27%), sinker (26%), and four-seam fastball (20%). While that worked in 2022, the predictable sequencing has caught up with him. Hitters are sitting on the sinker or change, knowing they’ll likely see one early in the count.

His slider and curveball remain underused—despite the slider generating a 39.3% whiff rate this year. Except when the slider gets hit, it gets hit quite hard with an xSLG of .877.

The curveball, while used just 10.8% of the time, has a microscopic .195 xwOBA against it and 28.6% whiff rate, suggesting it’s an untapped weapon in his arsenal. In 2022, Alcantara’s offspeed pitches had elite run value—this year, they’re just average.

5. Underlying Metrics Confirm the Struggles

Statcast paints a grim picture in 2025—and the percentile rankings only emphasize how far he’s fallen from his Cy Young peak.

Metric 2022 2025 2025 Percentile
xERA 2.90 6.39 8th percentile
Hard-Hit Rate 38.5% 46.4% 23rd percentile
Barrel % 5.3% 10.7% 17th percentile
Avg Exit Velocity 87.8 mph 91.0 mph 28th percentile
Whiff % 25.6% 25.1% 50th percentile
K% 23.4% 15.7% 20th percentile

His chase rate is down to just 24.1% (23rd percentile), indicating hitters aren’t being fooled by pitches out of the zone.

These indicators paint a picture of a pitcher who’s no longer fooling hitters, missing barrels, or winning counts—and opponents are punishing everything in the zone.

The 46.3 swing percentage also shows more patience from the hitters he is facing.

Can He Turn It Around?

Sandy Alcantara is still only 29, and his raw stuff hasn’t disappeared. But between shaky command, predictable sequencing, and ineffective secondaries, he looks lost on the mound. The Marlins’ defense and lack of run support only magnify the problem. To turn things around, Sandy needs to:

  • Regain feel for the strike zone

  • Introduce sharper breaking pitches into his game plan

  • Vary his sequencing and approach to hitters

The tools are still there, but the margin for error is gone—and unless something changes quickly, his season could spiral even further from his Cy Young form.

What Does This Mean for His Future?

Sandy and all Marlins stars will always be the center of trade talks, but these performances aren’t doing anything to bolster his value, if anything it is being diminished. This could be seen as a win for the Marlins as they can maybe keep Sandy with their young bolstering core, but regardless Sandy must improve.

Twice this season, Alcantara has allowed at least six runs in three or fewer innings—an alarming stat for a pitcher who once prided himself on being the rock of the rotation. After Tuesday’s latest meltdown, he didn’t mince words.

“I feel good physically, but I feel terrible just being out there and having the same result and I can’t do nothing when my teammates need me the most,” Alcantara told MLB.com. “I know this is a process, but I’m tired. I’m tired of having the same success out there, and I don’t feel happy about it.”

The quote was telling—not just because of the frustration, but because Alcantara described his performance as “success,” likely a translation slip that just shows how disoriented and defeated he feels mentally. Just two years removed from being the league’s most dependable workhorse, he now finds himself at a crossroads.

Sandy is coming off tommy john and that is not an easy journey, yet he has still underperformed.

The Marlins entered the year unsure whether to hold or shop the 29-year-old righty, who is under contract for $17.3 million in both 2025 and 2026, with a $21 million team option for 2027. But at this rate, his trade value is at a low point, and a move seems unlikely unless he rebounds.

Manager Clayton McCullough offered support, but also an honest assessment:

“We just have to kind of go back to work there and try to figure that out. It’s so uncharacteristic for him… It was really a struggle from the first inning tonight, just never really could catch a rhythm and get settled in,” McCullough said. “Some pitches that were kind of more heart of the plate, they put some good swings on. But I think for me, it’s just as much trying to get back to commanding and executing pitches at the rate that we’re all accustomed to.”

“We’ll put our heads together with him and just see what we think is the next best step to try to right the ship a little bit. We certainly all know there’s a much better version there.”

That better version feels distant right now. But if Alcantara can rediscover his command and adjust his pitch usage, a turnaround isn’t out of the question. The tools, velocity, and track record all suggest the potential remains.

Whether that version resurfaces this season or not could determine not only the fate of the Marlins, but Alcantara’s standing among the game’s elite.

 

Early on, Surprising Marlins are Passing Some Tests

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The Miami Marlins are supposed to be bad. Not just bad, but the Miami Marlins are supposed to be historically bad. So bad, in fact, that the mere fact that they are .500 in their first 12 games of the season can be seen as something of a small miracle.

After losing 100 games last season, the Marlins lost three crucial contributors over the offseason. Two coming via trade in the form of star lefty Jesus Luzardo, and the 2024 home run leader in Jake Burger, and one via injury being steady left handed starter Braxton Garrett. The team hadn’t done much in the way of adding pieces to replace these players, either, as the Marlins spent no money on MLB free agents over the course of the offseason, instead opting until the Spring to agree to terms with free agent pitcher Cal Quantrill on a one year, $3.5M deal. To make matters even worse, the Marlins then lost five players thought to be crucial pieces of the MLB roster in the last week and a half of Spring Training such as starters Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers, reliever Andrew Nardi, Third Baseman Connor Norby, and Right Fielder Jesus Sanchez, all suffered injuries resulting in them starting the season on the injured list.

The stage was set for the team to roll over and die. After all, the 2024 squad, which was undoubtedly more impressive on paper on opening day last season, started by losing nine of their first ten contests, ultimately resigning the team to a season that would see them hit the reset button once more with a fire sale that would linger into the following offseason.

Through 2025’s first dozen, however, it’s been a bit of a different story for this year’s team. The Marlins are far, far, far from contenders for a playoff spot still in anyone’s mind, but, a 6-6 start is cause for a slight eyebrow raise, especially considering the players that are still on the shelf for Miami early on this season.

The stats don’t jump off the page necessarily, but the pitching staff has been at the heart of the early season perseverance for the fish, with the starters posting a steady 3.72  ERA through the first ten and the relievers just slightly better with a 3.63 ERA early on themselves. There have been outlier performances, though.

If one removes just one blow up outing by Cal Quantrill versus the Mets that saw the veteran surrender eight runs over four frames, that ERA for the starters dips to 2.44, which would be the second best mark in all of baseball. The same can also be said for the bullpen, with Luarbert Arias giving up five in just one third of an inning of work last Friday in Atlanta. If one were to remove that appearance off the ledger, the bullpen ERA would sink to 2.64, which would be number four in baseball. There are still a ways to go before the staff receives their much needed reinforcements, but it’s been players like Connor Gillispie, Valente Bellozo, and Max Meyer who have provided Sandy Alcantara with crucial support in the rotation, as well as Ronny Henriquez, Anthony Veneziano, Tyler Phillips, Anthony Bender and Lake Bachar out of the bullpen who have helped to hold down the fort for the Fish. At the plate, it’s been a bit more of a struggle for the Marlins, as many would have expected to start the season, however, it hasn’t all been without positives.

The outfield, which had been panned by many, myself included, has largely been the most consistent source of production to this point in the Marlins lineup. Dane Myers, Derek Hill, Griffin Conine and Kyle Stowers have combined for a modest, yet much needed .718 OPS through ten games for the club, mix this with hot starts from second baseman Otto Lopez (though he has cooled significantly of late) and Catcher Nick Fortes, and the Marlins have been able to cobble together just enough offense despite slow starts from the likes of Jonah Bride and Xavier Edwards, along with the absences of Connor Norby and Jesus Sanchez.

The schedule for the Marlins to this point, hasn’t necessarily been a cake walk, either. Sure, the Pirates aren’t likely to be postseason contenders, but those are series’ the Marlins will have to win if they intend to keep their head above water through April, and largely treading water versus two of the better teams in the National League in the Mets and the Braves can at least keep Miami from falling too far behind in the standings before receiving much needed help in the coming weeks. The test is far from over for the Marlins, as they will have to continue on without the aforementioned injured players for at least a little while longer with three of the next four series being intra-divisional matchups versus NL East foes, but so far, the Marlins are surviving, and that alone, under these circumstances, for this team, is commendable on its own. 

 

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Baseball writes its own stories

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Unlike other sports, baseball writes its own stories.

Of course, Griffin Conine was going to tie the game 2-2 with a solo home run on the day his father Jeff “Mr. Marlin” Conine was inducted as the first member of the Marlins Hall of Fame.

Of course, the Miami Marlins were going to win their third game of the season on a walk-off, just as they did the previous two games.

“How cool is baseball? Griffin Conine, on this day, hitting that home run. Sometimes things happen that just feel special,” Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said. “So really cool moment for him today. That was awesome.”

With their 3-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, the Marlins became the first MLB team since the 2003 Tampa Bay Devil Rays to win its first three games of a season in walk-off fashion. However, in the case of Derek Hill, it was more of a run-off.

Hill led off the ninth inning and reached base on a single thanks to a throw past the first baseman. Another errand throw toward second base that went to the outfield allowed Hill to not only steal second base but also advance to third. Hill then scored the winning run on a wild pitch to secure the Marlins’ third walk-off win of the season.

Jeff Conine was honored as the first member of the inaugural Marlins Hall of Fame class for being the only member of the inaugural 1993 season and both World Series teams of 1997 and 2003. He is also the franchise’s only All-Star MVP, earning that honor in 1995.

Both World Series-winning managers and second baseman Luis Castillo, who spent 10 years with the Marlins and won two championships, will also be honored later this season.

It was only fitting for Conine to see his son rob a home run on Saturday and hit a home run on Sunday.

“The whole thing’s surreal to me,” Conine told MLB.com. “I’m not one to really like attention so much, but today’s all about me, and it’s almost uncomfortable, but that’s a cherry on top. Outside of the World Series or playoffs, it doesn’t get any better than this. It really doesn’t.”

On a team full of scrappy outcasts, brought to Miami by way of waiver claims and minor league trades, Griffin Conine stands out as the household name. The Marlins quietly acquired him in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays two years after being drafted out of Duke in 2018.

He has always shown promise as a power-hitting outfield prospect, especially when he slugged 36 home runs and 84 RBIs in 108 games between single-A and double-A in 2021. He made his MLB debut on Aug. 26, 2024, and became a second-generation Marlin. He changed his jersey number to 18 this season to honor his father and is living up to the Conine name with his performance this past weekend.

“From the ceremony itself and then getting to come up in a big spot and do it, and then us finishing with a win — our third walk-off win in four days — it’s awesome,” Griffin Conine said. “We’re in a great spot to start the year.”

Miami Marlins scrapping their way to walk-off wins

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It is rare for a team to enter a season with little expectations and end up with an opening weekend as exciting as the Miami Marlins have had against the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

Kyle Stowers walked it off in the ninth inning on Thursday, Otto Lopez brought Friday’s game to within a single run with a home run in the ninth, and Dane Myers hits a walk-off single in the 12th inning to win their second game of the season. 

After the game, the outfielder described his team as “a scrappy ball club.”

“I think that’s what we’ll be kind of built off this year,” Myers said on MLB Network after the win, “scrapping wins together like that.”

The latest Marlins rebuild attempt is different from the previous attempts. Whether it was 2006, 2013, or 2018-19, the prospects from the key trades were front and center to prove the front office right or wrong. 

This team, however, appears to be the island of misfit prospects. A majority of the Miami lineup through the first series of the season comprised of players who did not come to Miami by way of trading a household name. 

The Marlins were Derek Hill’s third team in 2024, starting with the Texas Rangers and being claimed off waivers by the San Francisco Giants and eventually Miami. He has started each of the first three games of this season at center field, going 4-for-11 with two doubles and an RBI. 

Dane Myers was claimed off waivers in the minor leagues back in 2022. He showed promise as a .260-.270 hitter over the course of 66 games the past two years and this rebuilt version is his first time to really prove he belongs in the big leagues. 

Griffin Conine, born on the year his father, Jeff Conine, helped the Marlins win their first ever World Series in 1997, was traded by the Blue Jays back in 2020. There’s certainly a lot to feel optimistic about his presence on the team. Outside of his bat, he flashed the leather early by robbing a would be solo home run by leaping toward the outfield wall on Saturday.

Eric Wagaman was a free agent signing after the 2017 draft pick reached the big leagues for the first time and played 18 games for the Los Angeles Angels in 2024. Matt Mervis was swapped for Vidal Bruján in a December trade with the Chicago Cubs. 

The Marlins got Jonah Bride in a trade with the Athletics before the start of last year’s spring training, after the corner infielder was designated for assignment. He was sent from one rebuild to another but at least he got to show off a bit of pop with 11 home runs in 71 games last year. 

The middle infield of Xavier Edwards and Lopez also came to the Marlins by way of waiver claims, and have both demonstrated to be solid contact hitters and base-stealing speedsters. Lopez hit six home runs last season and if his two-run blast on Friday is any indication, he could possibly double that number this year. 

This young team doesn’t have a single player older than 30, and 21 of the 26 on the active roster have fewer than two years of service time. This team is being led by first-year manager Clayton McCullough, who is coming from the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers to seemingly start his managerial career from the ground up. 

Yet, for McCullough to have the best team in baseball as a frame of reference, him feeling confident in this year’s Marlins, is a type of belief that wasn’t there in 2019 or even last year.

“Right when we showed up at camp he told us he believed in us and had a lot of confidence in the ball club,” Myers said. “Hearing that from a new manager goes a long way.”

There are a few players on the active roster who were a part of key midseason trades a year ago, but they all came at the expense of a reliever. Connor Norby and Stowers were part of a trade with the Baltimore Orioles for Trevor Rogers. Graham Pauley was part of a package that sent Tanner Scott to the San Diego Padres. 

But the prospects received for Jesus Luzado (LF Emaarion Boyd and SS Starlyn Caba), Jake Burger (SS Echedry Vargas, SS Max Acosta and LHP Brayan Mendoza), Jazz Chisholm (C Agustin Ramirez, 2B Jared Serna and SS Abrahan Ramirez), Luis Arraez (OF Dillon Head, OF Jakob Marsee, RHP Woo-Suk Go and 1B Nathan Martorella)? None of them are on this team.

On top of that, the season started with Sandy Alcantara on the mound returning from Tommy John surgery amid the inevitability of him getting traded for what will expectedly be a haul that encapsulates the rebuild. 

“We’re always open to anything that is going to make our organization better,” Bendix said on Saturday. “It’s unusual for there to be moves like that, right? But obviously, we’re open-minded to it.”

Alcantara, who won the Marlins’ first Cy Young award in 2022, will turn 30 years old on Sept. 7, 2025. He is set to make $17.3 million in both 2025 and ’26, with a club option for $21 million (a $2 million buyout) in ’27. All of which is relatively cheap as far as aces go. 

So while the rebuild is taking place secretly under the surface in the minor leagues, the 2025 Marlins will show just how far a team full of scrappy non-prospects with no pedigree can go in a division filled with money-making juggernauts. 

“It’s a bunch of young, hungry, athletic guys, and we’re not gonna give up because we’ve got nothing to lose” Marlins catcher Nick Fortes said on Thursday. “We know we’re talented, so, yeah, we’re gonna go out there and give it our all every night.”

Marlins Ace Sandy Alcantara Set for Opening Day Return

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Sandy Alcantara Gets the Nod for Opening Day

The Miami Marlins are turning to their ace as they kick off the 2025 season, with Sandy Alcantara officially named the Opening Day starter against the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 27. This marks Alcantara’s fifth career Opening Day start, extending his franchise record among pitchers.

Returning From Injury and Ready to Lead

After missing the entire 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery, the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner is ready to reclaim his role as the leader of Miami’s rotation. New Marlins manager Clayton McCullough confirmed the decision Thursday, stating that the team is eager to see Alcantara back on the mound.

“We informed Sandy that he’s going to be our Opening Day starter,” McCullough said. “No secret there, but it was a long journey coming back from last year. Organizationally, we’re very excited, and the fanbase will be excited to see Sandy take the hill on Opening Day.”

Alcantara has been dominant in his previous Opening Day outings, posting a 2.31 ERA over 23 1/3 innings. His return provides much-needed stability for a Marlins team looking to bounce back in a competitive NL East. While Miami plans to manage his workload early in the season, Alcantara is more than 16 months removed from surgery and confident in his recovery.

“I learned a lot,” Alcantara said. “It was difficult because I wasn’t able to compete, but I enjoyed supporting my teammates. The most important thing is being healthy.”

Alcantara’s Importance to the Marlins

Alcantara’s return not only bolsters Miami’s rotation but also brings back a strong clubhouse presence. He is the longest-tenured player on the roster, having been with the Marlins since 2018, and has been the team’s most reliable starter over the years. His ability to work deep into games is a luxury for a Marlins bullpen that struggled with overuse last season.

Team president Peter Bendix also weighed in on Alcantara’s return, emphasizing both his physical readiness and leadership role within the clubhouse.

“Sandy is here right now. Sandy looks as good as I think he’s ever looked in his career. He was sitting 98 miles an hour in a side session out on the field looking like he was just playing catch. That’s uncommon. That’s unusual. But really the even more unusual thing is the degree to which Sandy is that leader. He is the leader that everyone else looks to, and he is helping set the tone. So, I’m thrilled that he’s here.”

Opening Day Matchup: A Potential Pitchers’ Duel

Pittsburgh has yet to officially name its Opening Day starter, though 2024 All-Star Paul Skenes is the likely candidate. The hard-throwing right-hander, one of baseball’s top young pitchers, would provide a thrilling duel against Alcantara in a matchup featuring two power arms.

Alcantara has had success against the Pirates in his career, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.91 ERA and 33 strikeouts over six appearances. His familiarity with Pittsburgh’s lineup could give Miami an early-season edge as they look to start the year on the right foot.

With Alcantara back on the mound and eager to reclaim his ace status, all eyes will be on LoanDepot park when the Marlins open the 2025 season.

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Mr. Sherman: It’s Time to Show Miami You Care About Baseball 

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The Miami Marlins have been the laughingstock of Major League Baseball over the better part of the last decade. Constantly boasting a low payroll, management changes, and low attendance despite the success of many other events at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins remain a team stuck in the cycle of mediocrity. Year after year, the Marlins continue to trade away their top talent (Yelich, Jazz, Realmuto, and Luzardo) and seem to be in what many would consider a constant rebuilding stage.  

Despite being one of MLB’s younger franchises, the team has captured two World Series titles (1997 and 2003), both in dramatic underdog fashion as a Wild Card team. Known for their colorful history, the Marlins remain a vital part of South Florida’s sports culture. Since moving to LoanDepot Park in 2012, the team has embraced its Miami identity with a bold rebranding and a commitment to engaging a diverse fanbase. Yet, despite all of this, they continue to put out a poor product, trading away fan favorites, and asking the question: “Why is attendance so low?” 

Fan Engagement: Proving Miami’s Passion for Baseball 

The success of the team in 2023 saw a late-season spike in attendance, and rightfully so—the field was filled with stars, and the team was winning ballgames. Yet once again, the Marlins chose a different route, trading away numerous big names from the successful 2023 season and letting many others walk. The attendance has nothing to do with the location of the park, like their in-state rival Tampa Bay Rays, nor the fandom of Miami fans. It’s all about the product on the field. This is easily exemplified by attendance figures at LoanDepot Park for events like the World Baseball Classic (WBC) and the Savannah Bananas’ games, which highlight that Miami residents are willing to attend baseball games when the events are engaging and competitive. 

World Baseball Classic 2023: 

LoanDepot Park set a record for the most-attended World Baseball Classic round ever in the United States, drawing 295,850 fans. Sports Business Journal 

  • The quarterfinal matchup on March 17 between Mexico and Puerto Rico attracted 35,817 fans. Bizjournals 

Savannah Bananas: 

In March 2024, the Savannah Bananas sold out LoanDepot Park, with 37,000 fans attending their game—the first of 18 MLB ballparks on their tour. 

They are scheduled to return to LoanDepot Park on March 1 and 2, 2025, with tickets already sold out, all 72,000 tickets gone. 

These attendance numbers suggest that the low turnout for Miami Marlins games are more closely related to the team’s on-field performance and fan engagement strategies rather than a lack of interest in baseball among Miami residents. 

More Stars on The Move? 

As we look ahead to the 2024 season, the Marlins face a pivotal moment. The team’s future relies heavily on the direction they take with their current roster, including the two remaining stars, Sandy Alcantara and Jesús Sánchez. Both players, who have become fan favorites and key contributors, have a strong chance of being moved soon as the team continues its seemingly never-ending rebuild. This presents a real challenge for the Marlins’ front office and new manager Clayton McCullough, who enters his first season with the unenviable task of guiding, yet another rebuild. McCullough must navigate the difficulties of managing a team in flux, with hopes of delivering a competitive product to a fan base that has grown increasingly disillusioned by repeated false promises of success. 

Make Miami a Desirable Home 

In many ways, the Marlins’ ownership must show more than just a willingness to spend—it must demonstrate a true commitment to building a competitive team. Free-agent signings are essential, but they will only work if the team is also crafting a vision that excites both players and fans. As it stands, the Marlins are seen as a franchise that players dread being on—one that lacks the infrastructure and consistency to compete at a high-level year in and year out. Miami should be a destination for top-tier talent, not a place where players are looking to leave as soon as their contract expires. 

As former Marlins player Mike Lowell once said, “Players want to play for a team that’s going to win.” The Marlins must create an environment where top free agents and established stars are excited to join, not just because of the paycheck but because of the team’s potential to compete. Miami is a city that loves sports, and baseball has a long history in this town. But until the Marlins’ ownership embraces the urgency of making this team a winner, the attendance issues will continue. 

A Changing Ownership Mindset: The Need for Long-Term Commitment 

With the team’s stadium lease running until 2047 (The Miami Marlins have a no-relocation agreement with the City of Miami that disallows any relocation and/or negotiations for relocation until the year 2047.), the Marlins have a limited window to prove their commitment to building a team that can truly contend. If the ownership fails to create a competitive product on the field and continues to trade away stars like Alcantara and Sánchez, the threat of relocation could become all too real. As former Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria once remarked, “If you don’t put a good product on the field, fans won’t come, and the team won’t survive.” 

The clock is ticking, and it is time for the Marlins and their ownership to step up. South Florida is ready to support a baseball team that is worth rooting for, but the Marlins need to prove that they are ready to provide one. The future of baseball in Miami is at a crossroads. It is up Mr. Sherman to make sure they choose the right path, and if not, sell the team.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: The Heat couldn’t slow down the Pacers, losing sixth game at home this season

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The Heat got embarrassed by the Pacers in one of their worst defensive showings of the season. The visitors feasted in the half-court plus transition. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro combined for 14 of 24 baskets, but it didn’t make a dent. And Jimmy Butler saved himself for the next team.

 

The Pacers went on a 12-2 run, supplied by Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard, forcing the Heat’s first timeout. This spurt also included Myles Turner denying Butler twice- once on a drive and another breaking up a lob.

 

The team responded with baskets from Adebayo, Terry Rozier and Kel’el Ware, but the Pacers kept rolling behind Haliburton, scoring and setting up others. It was the second-most points by a Heat opponent through the first quarter all season.

 

In the second quarter, Herro and Adebayo were the only Heatles to make multiple shots. On the other side, Pascal Siakam successfully posted up, drove into the lane and finished a lob on the break; and Turner added nine points.

 

At halftime, the Heat was down 66-50. The team had 22 paint points, seven on the break, four via second chances, seven off turnovers and 20 from the bench. 


Butler only logged one of two shots and mostly looked to pass even when he had opportunities to go to the body.

 

The Pacers had 32 paint points, 11 on the break, five via second chances, eight off turnovers and 22 from the bench. 


Subsequently, Duncan Robinson connected on two triples early in the third, but it was quickly negated by six quick points by Turner. Haliburton also hit two mid-range jumpers on the dribble and with under two minutes left, Indiana’s lead starched to 28.

 

The Heat’s effort was better in the fourth, but the Pacers only needed to produce 30.8% of shots to separate themselves to the finish line.

 

The Heat lost 128-115. The team had 56 paint points, 12 on the break, nine via second chances, nine off turnovers and 57 from the bench.

 

Butler played 26 minutes, recording nine points on three of six shots, with two rebounds, four assists, two steals and a turnover.

 

Adebayo had 20 points on 66.7% shooting, with eight rebounds, two assists, one steal and one turnover.

 

Herro had 17 points on 50% shooting, with three rebounds, three assists and three turnovers.

 

And Ware put up 25 points off the bench on nine of 11 attempts, with one assist, one steal, three blocks and one turnover.

 

The Pacers had 58 paint points, 19 on the break, 11 via second chances, 23 off turnovers and 38 from the bench.

 

After the game, Butler said, “I felt great. I felt like I was focused. I feel like I did my job, or at least what my job is now.

 

He also added, “I want to see me get my joy back from playing basketball, wherever that may be we’ll find out pretty soon.”

 

When asked if he could get his joy back with the Heat, he said “probably not.”.

 

Observations:

 

  • This was Ware’s best game as a pro. He continues to look good on rim rolls and splashed a few triples.

 

  • Coach Erik Spoelstra was so desperate he brought in Keshad Johnson, who has only logged 14 minutes this season.


    .

  • This was the fourth-worst field goal percentage (53.1) and second-most points given up all season.

 

  • The Heat’s lead lasted 62 seconds, and they trailed the rest of the way.

 

 

The Trade Target the Heat Should Pursue: De’Aaron Fox

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The Miami Heat are no strangers to the NBA rumor mill, often tied to big-name free agents or trade targets. Yet, recent years have seen them fail to land game-changing talent. With limited assets compared to other contenders, the Heat must find creative ways to reshape their roster. Enter De’Aaron Fox, the Sacramento Kings’ explosive point guard, who could transform Miami’s backcourt into one of the best in the league.

Why Fox Is a Perfect Fit for Miami

De’Aaron Fox is among the fastest players in the NBA and excels in both transition and half-court settings. Fox is averaging 26.2 points, 6.1 assists,1.6 steals and 5.0 rebounds while shooting 48.2% from the field. His ability to attack the rim, create for teammates, and defend opposing guards makes him a seamless fit for Miami’s culture of toughness and versatility.

Pairing Fox with Tyler Herro would create a dynamic backcourt capable of rivaling the league’s elite tandems, such as:

  • Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving (Dallas Mavericks)
  • Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland (Cleveland Cavaliers)
  • Devin Booker and Bradley Beal (Phoenix Suns)
  • Derrick White and Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics)

Fox’s speed and playmaking would complement Herro’s elite shooting and scoring ability, forcing defenses to pick their poison. Defensively, Fox’s quickness would add much-needed pressure on the perimeter, helping Bam Adebayo anchor the paint.

 

The Kings’ Turmoil: Why Fox Might Be Available

The Kings recently fired head coach Mike Brown following a disappointing start to the season. With Sacramento struggling to gain traction in the Western Conference, rumors suggest the franchise could pivot toward a rebuild, making Fox’s contract expendable. The Heat should pounce on this opportunity, using their young assets and draft picks to bring Fox to South Beach.

 

Fox and Bam: A Kentucky Connection

Fox and Bam Adebayo share a strong bond dating back to their days at the University of Kentucky. This pre-existing chemistry could accelerate Fox’s integration into Miami’s system, especially under the Heat’s renowned development program. Both players bring elite athleticism and a desire to win, aligning perfectly with Miami’s culture.

 

What Would a Fox Trade Look Like?

The Heat are adamant about keeping Tyler Herro and their core of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo intact. A realistic package for Fox could include:

  • Miami Heat Receive: De’Aaron Fox
  • Sacramento Kings Receive: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jović, Duncan Robinson, and three future first-round picks

This trade gives the Kings a mix of young talent and draft capital to kickstart a rebuild while Miami gets the dynamic playmaker they need.

 

Who is Untouchable? The Heat have been hesitant to make any moves, making it hard to judge who they consider untouchable. Herro and Bam are the clear members and despite Pat Riley making it clear about Jimmy, we could still see him moved.

This could be a way for Miami to move Jimmy, meaning a trade for Fox could include a third team.

 

Could Miami Keep Jimmy, Bam, Herro, and Fox?

It is possible, though it would require maneuvering around the salary cap and convincing Sacramento to prioritize future assets over immediate contributors. Keeping all four players would instantly shoot Miami to the top of the food chain, with a lineup that combines scoring, defense, and playmaking at every position.

 

How the Heat Stack Up

Adding Fox would instantly elevate Miami’s backcourt to elite status. Alongside Herro’s 23.8 points per game, Bam’s elite defense, and Butler’s clutch performances, the Heat would match up with any team in the league. Fox’s knack for breaking down defenses would also open opportunities for Miami’s shooters, making their offense far more potent.

 

A Move for Debate

While Fox seems like a dream acquisition, the Heat would need to deplete their limited assets to make it happen. Critics might argue that Miami should focus on building depth instead of consolidating star power. However, in a league dominated by superstar duos and trios, the landing of Fox could be the move that finally pushes the Heat over the top, with or without Jimmy Butler.

If the Heat are to move Jimmy, Fox, Herro, and Bam would still be a big three capable of competing for an NBA championship (with adequate depth).

Is this the right gamble for the Heat or is it just one of the many stars tied to South Beach?

 

*****

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What will be the Marlins’ New Managerial Identity?

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This is, arguably, the Marlins’ most important offseason for the foreseeable future.

 

After an n extremely disappointing season, in which they lost 100 games for the 4th time in their 31 year existence, losing their Manager of the Year, and trading away a ton of major league assets, the Marlins are forced to find a new identity, alongside many other pieces, to try to build towards success. As it stands, the Marlins are a team with a ton of unproven talent, a middling minor league system, a starting rotation returning from injury, and manager-less. Even without making waves in free agency, this offseason could stand to be the most influential in the team’s potential future success.

 

The Marlins seem to have a knack for being in continual need for managers to lead the team. In their 31 years in the majors, they have had 17 different managers, with the longest tenured being Don Mattingly at 7 seasons. They need to be able to find that consistency if they want to continually find success. As of October 30th, the Marlins were down to two finalists, being Will Venable, Associate Manager of the Rangers, and Craig Albernaz, the bench coach of the Guardians. Both were highly sought after managerial candidates, but both ended up declining the job with Miami. Albernaz decided to remain in Cleveland as their bench coach under manager Steven Vogt, and Venable taking the job with the Chicago White Sox.

 

This unfortunate series of events puts the Marlins back at square one on their replacement to the beloved former manager, Skip Schumaker. The team has interviewed many different coaches to potentially replace the aforementioned Skip, but only pulled Albernaz and Venable to do in-person interviews in Miami. As it stands, the current front runner for the managerial spot is Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, who is coming back fresh from a World Series victory. McCullough, a former catcher, was a manager for the minor league system of the Toronto Blue Jays from 2007-2014, before joining the Dodgers organization. There’s not much to his coaching repertoire, but if a multi-All-Star and MVP endorsement has any weight, Mookie Betts has claimed that McCullough is the “best coach I’ve ever had”. 

 

Other people who were being considered or have interviewed this offseason were Tigers Bench Coach George Lombard, Giants Assistant Coach Alyssa Nakken, and Marlins former bench coach Luis Urueta. The Marlins are looking to fill this position as quickly as possible, at least prior to the GM Meetings occurring next week. Oddly enough, reported on Halloween, Giants assistant hitting coach Pedro Guerrero has interviewed for an unnamed position with the Marlins. Normally, the coaches are hand-picked by the upcoming manager, so with Guerrero being interviewed, it’s seeming as though even with the setback, the Marlins are closer to another skipper than they may be letting on.

 

How The Marlins Got it Right at the 2024 Trade Deadline

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Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Miami Marlins have just dealt (most of) the proven major league talent they have on the roster for prospects, once again sending out the billowing smoke of a fire sale from Loan Depot Park.

 

Names like Jazz Chisholm, Jr., Tanner Scott, Trevor Rogers, A.J. Puk, Bryan De La Cruz, and earlier in the season- Luis Arraez, four former all-stars and two regular big league contributors in recent years, were sent off to greener pastures in return for yet another influx of prospects, a tale as old as time in Marlins land.

 

Understandably, this has been met with groans from a fanbase for which this act has become something of a ritual throughout the Marlins history, in 1998, the Marlins famously-or infamously, rather, blew up the core of a world series winning team in 1997 that seemingly had a window for contention that stretched well into the 2000s, follow this up with fire sales from 04-05, 2012, 2017-2019, and now once again in 2024, and it’s easy to see why the base would be apprehensive of yet another rebuild. 

 

However, this is a new front office, and as unpopular a sentiment as it is to express: This rebuild MUST be separated from the others, for two key reasons: 1) This roster was not expensive enough to blow up for financial reasons in the first place, and 2) This roster was not good enough, nor did the Marlins have enough reinforcements on the way in terms of minor league talent to win in the short, or even intermediate terms. 

 

So, for their trouble, how did the Marlins do at this year’s deadline? 

 

Well, according to industry experts at least, very, very well. Publications all around from The Ringer, to CBS Sports, to The Athletic, USA Today, and more all lauded Peter Bendix and the front office for their work on Tuesday.

 

 Now, that is far from a guarantee of success, but it paints a starkly different picture than the doom and gloom being expressed throughout South Florida from Marlins fans and casual observers alike.

 

I can already hear the furious typing that the Marlins won’t see these players for years and that this means that the Marlins are doomed to a protracted 5 year rebuilding project, and to that I say: not necessarily, when looking at the prospect hauls in these deals, one common thread emerges, much of the top end talent acquired at this deadline is major league ready, or close to it. 

 

Of the 14 prospects acquired at the trade deadline, eight are at AA or better with one (Kyle Stowers) assigned to the MLB roster and in the lineup Tuesday in Tampa. 

 

This is a Marlins team that knows the pitching that it has waiting in the wings (Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Ryan Weathers) on the injured list, and they have carried themselves like it, adding at least four players who will be competing for spots on this team as early as next season, with potential MLB call-ups to come in the next couple of months for the likes of Connor Norby, Deyvison De Los Santos, and Agustin Ramirez, the Marlins newly minted 5th, 6th, and 7th ranked prospects respectively, according to MLB pipeline. 

 

So, while it remains to be seen how this deadline has actually worked out for the on-field product in 2024 and beyond, the Marlins are set to get to the work of fielding a competitive big league club sooner, rather than later.