Miami Heat

Five Reasons Sports: Five on the Floor 2022-2023 NBA Predictions

Thirteen contributors from the Five Reasons Sports network — including contributors to the Five on the Floor podcast — made their predictions for the upcoming NBA season.  You can view the individual predictions from Ethan, Greg, Brady, Bryan, Tony, Ricky, Gad, Timmy, Marco, Alfredo, Alejandro, Mateo, and Sean HERE or an overall summary below.

 

Miami Heat Predictions:

The panel predicted the Heat to finish 4th in the East with a predicted average of 49.7 wins.  Nearly 54% of the experts had the Heat returning to the Eastern Conference Finals and 61% had them representing the East in the NBA Finals.  Only 23% have the guts to predict their 4th NBA championship, but the panel seems confident after a quiet offseason.  Only 31% of the panel believes Duncan Robinson will finish the season on the Heat’s roster despite a strong showing in the preseason.  After showing off his outside shot this summer and in the preseason, our experts predicted an average of 25 three pointers made by Bam Adebayo this season.

 

NBA Champion:

According to our expert panel, the Bucks (31%) edged out the Heat, Clippers, Warriors, Mavericks, and Nuggets for this year’s championship.  They are forecasting a wide open Western Conference, with five different teams (Clippers, Warriors, Nuggets, Mavericks, and Suns) being predicted to finish in the NBA Finals.  In the Eastern Conference, 54% of our experts foresee a 3rd chapter in the Bucks/Heat postseason rivalry.  

 

Award Winners:

If the season plays out how our experts predict, awards season is going to be an exciting competition this year.  Luka Doncic (38%) will win his first Most Valuable Player award, edging out Giannis and Embiid (23% each).  In another tight finish, Paolo Banchero (38%) takes Rookie of the Year over Jaden Ivey (31%) and Keegan Murray (23%).  Our panel ignored national narratives and finally crowned Bam Adebayo as Defensive Player of the Year with an overwhelming 92% of the vote – with Giannis receiving the only non-Bam vote (from a certain left-handed panelist).  The panel’s high expectations for Denver led to two Nuggets being awarded – Bones Hyland (23%) for Sixth Man of the Year, and Michael Malone (31%) for Coach of the Year.  There was a wide range of responses for Most Improved Player with ten players nominated by the panel – only Anthony Edwards, Keldon Johnson, and Anfernee Simons received multiple votes.

 

NBA Bold Predictions:

In anticipation of the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, the panel was split on the league’s worst team with the Spurs, Thunder, and Jazz all getting 23% of “worst team” votes.  Although some of those team’s coaches received votes, the panel predicted that Steve Nash (31%) is the most likely coach to be fired first.  Complimenting their top 5 predicted finish, our experts gave Cleveland the best offseason grade (31%) likely driven by the Donovan Mitchell acquisition.  The panel seems to expect an active trade market with ten different names mentioned as the “biggest name traded this season”, but Russell Westbrook was designated as the most likely to be changing zip codes over the next few months.  

 

Eastern Conference Predictions:

  1. Bucks (5)
  2. 76ers (5)
  3. Celtics (2)
  4. Heat 
  5. Cavs (1)
  6. Nets
  7. Raptors
  8. Hawks
  9. Bulls
  10. Knicks
  11. Wizards
  12. Pistons
  13. Magic

 

Western Conference Predictions:

  1. Nuggets (9)
  2. Warriors (2)
  3. Clippers
  4. Grizzlies (1)
  5. Mavericks
  6. Suns (1)
  7. Timberwolves
  8. Pelicans
  9. Lakers
  10. Blazers
  11. Kings

 

To view each panelist’s selections, click HERE

 

(Get your Chase Center tickets now and be ready to witness the action live as the Warriors make their push for the playoffs in the 2022-2023 NBA season.)

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Writing on the Wall for Draymond Green

When the Warriors said their habitually malignant headache would disappear for a while, they meant a week.  Never mind that Steve Kerr said the pop shot on Jordan Poole was the “biggest crisis” his team’s ever had.  The Warriors are going to sweep Draymond Green’s mess under the rug and throw accountability out the back door. 

 

Before Draymond left on Oct. 6, he said the relationship with his teammate had “splintered.” One has to wonder, what changed so quickly in a week that execs thought bringing him back was a good idea? 

 

Draymond’s quick return is risky.  On the one hand, Kevon Looney, an eight-year vet with the team, said he’s got work to do to earn back trust.  And on the other, you have Green admitting he still has difficulty approaching Poole. 

 

Yet, everything looked normal during the preseason game against Denver on Friday.  He looked in sync with the group, feeding open teammates shielded by pindowns, making cuts to the basket after the catch, and on some occasions, guarding multiple Nuggets per possession.  

 

To the naked eye, it looked like one of the team’s pillars was in midseason form, ready to defend the throne. But what the surface reveals may not tell the whole story.  It was an exhibition with no stakes behind it.  I am still curious to see how Green and Poole share the floor in a game that matters.  That will be the ultimate test to see if they can keep working together, not an abundance of quotes to the press that sound like the right things.  

 

After the game, Poole spoke to reporters for the first time since the incident.

 

“He apologized [professionally].  We plan on handling ourselves that way.  We’re here to play basketball… we’re here to win a championship and keep winning banners.”  

 

Poole is a pro who keeps it all business.  It’s impossible to know now if he harbors any resentment, but if he did, it would be warranted.

 

 It shouldn’t surprise anyone the Warriors are soft on discipline.  Six years ago, Bob Myers said he had blindspots for Green, and then Kerr shared his concerns for “tempering” him because his player might lose an edge. What? This was after #23 threatened his coach, and teammates had to get between them during halftime of a game at OKC.

 

This time, management has set a dangerous precedent for the club.  A player assaulted a teammate and basically received no repercussions.  

 

It grinds me gears the team has said the decision for Green to take his brief leave of absence, which has concluded, was a mutual decision.  Where in the world does a guilty subordinate get to decide his punishment?  Corrupt governments do not count.

 

“He’s been fined, but I won’t talk about the amount on that,” Kerr said Thursday. Green will earn $25.8 million this year. I’m sure he’ll be OK on that front.

 

The Dubs failed to do the minimum in holding Draymond up to the standards of his station.  It’s unclear why he’s getting this pass when some of the worst offenses on his rap sheet, just with the team, include pissing away a championship and threatening his instructor.  A season later, former teammate Marreese Speights, then a Clipper, said Green also disrupted practice that day, and the effects lingered the rest of the year.

 

But it’s unlikely the Warriors will keep putting up with this.  Primarily for financial reasons because with the latest extensions handed to Poole and, more recently, Andrew Wiggins, the club is priced out.  With two years left on his deal (the second is a player option), Green will presumably opt in for the last year, owing to the fact that he wouldn’t get such a lucrative salary elsewhere.  If he does commit to staying for 2023/2024, Golden State’s annual bill jumps to $530 million, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks.

 

Judging by team governor Joe Lacob’s comments, writing a check that hefty isn’t happening.  Nobody should be stunned if the Warriors decide to put Green on the trade block this season.

 

The team showed its priorities picking the two younger players to extend.  From the outside, it sure does look like the Warriors are preparing for life without #23.  Aside from a resurgence on offense while keeping the same RPMs defensively, the only other factor that could make Golden State reconsider its eventual long-term plans is if there is a lapse in the development of Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and James Wiseman.   

 

Green has said a lot before and after his hiatus.  He can be very convincing too.

 

“Quite frankly, I like to keep my emotions in…You internalize them. I know I do.  In saying that, it’s not something I want to change because I like to keep my emotions to myself, but what I do want to change, and what I do need to work on is how they end up coming out.”

 

 That sounds like a judicious approach. The point Green also made about “actions showing your apologies” was accurate.  He has the opportunity to prove his regrets are sincere.  He could start by never disrespecting a teammate again.   

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Draymond Green Isn’t Worth the Trouble

“My love is there and ain’t going nowhere,” said the man who assaulted his coworker.

 

Draymond Green may be that one person who ruins it for the group, a championship squad, I’ll add. The Golden State Warriors had a nice gig going until he thought he was above it all and laid out Jordan Poole.

 

There is nothing his victim could have said to warrant such a fierce blow to the head. And somehow, Green is lucky the ramifications of his rogue hands weren’t more severe to his teammate.

 

What if Poole fell, hit his head, and died, like the victim of recently convicted Mexican actor Pablo Lyle? The deceased was Juan Ricardo Hernandez, killed after taking a punch to the face and hitting the ground with his head, following a road rage dispute.

 

Any reasonable observer can tell by watching TMZ’s video that Green committed the act of a bully. It took no balls for Dray to invade Poole’s personal space and sucker punch him when his teammate pushed his aggressor off—especially considering the size difference of about, hmm, two inches and 40 pounds. All it took was a pathetic and witless show of ego.

 

Yes, of course, Green apologized, and the Warriors said they’d handle the mess internally. But then the video came out, and reportedly, some players didn’t see the strike until it was replayed because they were doing their jobs.

 

The Dubs are trying to settle this privately. Green is taking an indefinite leave of absence, and he and the team allegedly made this decision “mutually.” Just my two cents: Green would have been sent home regardless of his willingness to take this sabbatical. I’m not surprised more reporters didn’t call BS on the member of labor who committed a crime somehow having a say in his punishment.

 

Isn’t Green sure lucky he works for an NBA team? There is not one job worth working where this behavior wouldn’t be cause for termination.

But what started this? A disagreement between the two over foul calls in practice led to Green calling his teammate a “bitch.”

 

I’ve seen this movie before. Back in Nov. 2018, Golden State’s power forward said the same thing to then-teammate Kevin Durant on the sideline during a timeout of a losing effort against the Clippers. When free agency came around, KD left.

 

Nearly two years later, Green interviewed Durant on his show Chips. He asked how much getting called out of his name drove KD to leave the Warriors.

 

Nearly nine minutes into the interview, Durant said it wasn’t the argument. It was the way the team managed its first public meltdown. Green’s lack of grace, then, created a situation to be handled in the first place.

 

This latest offense comes when both guys are looking for contract extensions. Undoubtedly, management won’t be thrilled about potentially being put in an expedited position to choose between them.

 

I empathize with Poole. Having a clip circulate online where you are getting knocked out is embarrassing.

 

Assaulting someone is a serious offense that should not be tolerated in sports. It’s true. Green isn’t the first, nor will he be the last to shamefully compose himself this way. That doesn’t change how he irresponsibly risked irreparable harm to his relationship with Poole and the rest of the workplace environment.

 

It doesn’t matter that fights between teammates happen, and usually away from spies. What Green did to his man is dehumanizing and painful. JP had no chance because he never saw it coming.

 

This wasn’t a fight. It was physical abuse. A genuine-sounding apology in front of the media doesn’t fit the accountability bill. Although, I do appreciate that Green expressed regret to Poole’s family. But maybe Draymond should check himself into some anger management meetings or schedule counseling with a therapist.

“Oh, but this happens in sports all the time.” The people spouting this nonsense must have missed the part of workplace training that instructs employees to keep their hands to themselves.

 

It’s not like Green hasn’t been told that before. He was roped by police for slapping a taunting Michigan State football player back in 2016 in East Lansing.

 

There is no way around it. Draymond is a repeat offender on the decline who is not worth keeping around at his salary. It’s one thing for his offensive play to be a detriment to the group at times because the opponent doesn’t guard him. It’s another when he forgets himself and his importance to the locker room.

San Francisco police said they wouldn’t investigate the attack— not like anyone other than Dirty Harry gets results over there.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: What’s Next for Tyler Herro?

Much is expected from lottery picks, especially those who lock up $120 million in guaranteed money before incentives on their rookie extension. The deal is a win for both sides. Tyler Herro gets the long-term security of generational affluence, and the Miami Heat have a blue-chip asset on the books for five years.

Herro has a strong character and work ethic. But he’s also human. At training camp, he said he hears and reads everything that’s said about him; the good, the bad, and the ugly. And like many commoners, his motivation is fueled by detractors.

Herro has upgraded on both sides of the ball every year he has been a pro. He was one of the NBA’s 40 players last season to average at least 20 points per game(20.7), with 30% of his minutes coming in the fourth quarter.

Sometimes the best five players don’t always start, but they sure do finish. Last season, Herro was first in fourth quarter minutes averaged (9.8) and sixth in total time (639.6 min), per NBA Stats. His presence in crunch time before the Playoffs signified that he was as dependable as it gets in the league.

In the Postseason, #14 was unrecognizable from the version of himself that won the league’s reserve crown. Some, but not all, of it is due to playing through nicks and bruises. In the East Finals, Herro missed Games 4-6, nursing a groin injury that limited him to fewer than seven minutes in the Heat’s loss at home in Game 7.

At Media Day, Herro said he spent the offseason working on his body and adding moves to his arsenal. There, he reiterated his wish to start but that he’s also comfortable in whatever role.

“I’m a team player. Whatever Spo and the organization want me to do, I’ll do,” Herro said.

This was his approach last season before he got his money. A year later, with the safety net of guaranteed dollars, his attitude is the same; committed and determined.

Offense

Barring any unforeseen concoctions by coach Spo in the rotation, Herro’s tenure as a sixth man is over. He’ll now have more time with three players capable of putting the ball on the floor (Lowry, Butler, Adebayo). While Herro shares the court with them, he’ll be relied on more to stretch the defense as a catch-and-shoot operator coming off screens and pindowns.

In 2021/2022, the 22-year-old made 42.2% of his catch-and-shoot triples, which were slightly less than a 1/5 of his field goal attempts. The Heat will need him to hover around the same efficiency on a higher volume, so Lowry, Butler, Adebayo, and presumably Caleb Martin have room to drive to the cup.

What makes Herro so intriguing as a starter is that he isn’t going to catch the rival team’s defensive schemes before Butler, and Adebayo if he keeps his sights set on the rim. Tyler will now shoot an abundance of open looks that Duncan Robinson took last season. A solid amount of those catch-and-shoot opportunities were uncontested due to swinging the ball and dribble penetration.

Lowry and Butler will probably come out first from the starters group because of age. As soon as this happens, Herro will have more freedom to assert himself as a three-level scorer as he shifts into one of the playmakers on the floor.

Pick and roll with Herro and Adebayo might turn into one of the Heat’s go-to moves regardless of the coverage. If the opponent foolishly drops, Herro will pull up after turning the corner of the screen from deep or mid-range for a jumper. If Herro is iced, he’s big enough at 6’5 to not get overwhelmed by multiple defenders on the run before feeding it to Adebayo, the roll man.

The next developmental steps for Miami’s off-guard as a scorer is getting to the line around seven or eight times a game and learning to post up smaller players. He only attempts 3.3 charity shots a night– Herro would need to start attempting more than 1/3 of his shots from within 10 feet of the cylinder to start getting more calls from the refs.

Aside from the breather the trip to the free throw line gives everyone on the court, the offensive team is at an advantage defensively if the last attempt is made. As the ball is being checked, one side has retreated, established position, and is less likely to get surprised by a fastbreak.

Back-to-the-basket maneuvers are another effective way of creating fouls. If this comes at all in Herro’s development, it will probably emerge last. However, it is one of the most underutilized skills in today’s NBA and can be used as a last resort option if an opposing defense has mucked up a group’s attacking sets.

Defense

As a starter, Herro will guard more than 11 shots a game. In part because of a few extra minutes on the floor, but there is also a misleading reputation that he is a complete liability on defense. That’s not true.

Even heralded disruptors get torched in the NBA because the rules favor the other side. While defending guards in 2021/2022, Herro showed the ability to stay in front and contest. He held them to 40.8% of their attempts made, while being matched up on them for almost 2/3s of his time guarding. The problem for Herro defensively is when he’s switched onto bigger players.

This past season, when Herro was matched up with forwards, they attempted 4.2 shots per game against him, making 51.6% of field goals taken.

Bigger players may attempt to hunt him down, but as a starter, he will be surrounded by the Heat’s top protectors. Miami is counting on speed this year. They still have the tools to be one of the top help-defensive teams in the league by quickly sending an extra man if Herro is compromised to force the opponent to play from the perimeter.

During the offseason, Herro made getting in the weight room a priority to get stronger, and at this moment, he has the lowest body fat percentage on the team (4.5) and weighs 198 pounds. Based on the eye test, his arms, from his shoulders down to his elbows, look broader and more defined.

Earning the standing of a good defender involves constant effort and a high IQ. Herro doesn’t give up on possessions; he gets beat straight up. But he has the tools to be a better-than-average defender.

Individual Season Goal

The best ability is availability. Herro missed 16 regular season games and three in the Playoffs in 2021/2022. In his first two years in the league, he was absent on 36 nights of action. His top goal should be to suit up for every game in 2022/2023.

It’s not common for players to participate in every match anymore, but last season, only five ballers did so: Deni Avdija, Dwight Powell, Kevon Looney, Mikal Bridges, and Saddiq Bey. If Herro can emulate the attendance of these iron men, he’ll have a stronger case to make the All-Star team or earn All-NBA honors.

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Robert Sarver Heading for the Exit

In a strange turn of events, Phoenix Suns and Mercury owner Robert Sarver saved the last scrap of decency to his name and began the process of looking for buyers for his clubs.

Hallelujah.

This time, it didn’t take the NBA communicating with a special ally through back channels to ease the removal process. The league didn’t have to get their hands dirty.

The news was announced in a statement, and in his admission, Sarver said that as a “man of faith,” he believes in forgiveness after atonement. I doubt that day will ever come.

The lasting impression people take with them about another individual is how that person makes them feel. I can’t imagine the men who heard his racial remarks or those who were unnecessarily exposed to Sarver’s dingus have walked away from their experience in a pardoning mood. Or the women who were subjected to his lewd comments and intimidating behavior being equally as excusing either.

One detail among the innumerable unseemly findings of the Wachtell Lipton report is that Sarver was comfortable making lascivious utterances about the wife of one of his players. According to him, the spouse of his employee likely gave “good blow jobs.”

Perhaps the rebuking comments of minority owner Jahm Najafi helped Sarver discover how unlikeable he is. Maybe it was PayPal dropping sponsorship of his team. It doesn’t matter. Eventually, the Suns and Mercury will be signed off to someone else, but it’s the league’s responsibility that the next person or group in charge aces the qualifications of integrity as much as the financial obligations.

This was unexpected and the best possible outcome that could result from the shenanigans in Phoenix. Silver had the authority to suspend Sarver indefinitely, but the power was mildly used with a one-year ban plus the $10 million fine. Eventually, he had to come back, which left the possibility of him being a disturbance to others once more.

Silver didn’t do enough, but decades from now, when the details of how it all transpired have faded from most people’s memories, history will remember his tenure as commissioner fondly. When the sales are complete, under Silver’s watch, the NBA will have rid itself of two animals who were unworthy of ownership.

In his statement, Sarver also said that “in our unforgiving climate,” it is impossible for him to make amends. Contrary to popular belief, it isn’t. Forgiveness is awarded to those deserving of it. A couple of quotes expressing remorse don’t absolve him of his sins.

Maybe the door will smack some sense into Sarver on the way out.

In sports, for the rich, the rules don’t always apply

The House Committee on Oversight and Reform sat confused. Not even an hour into the June 22 deposition that lauded Roger Goodell, the questions of morality took shape. Goodell sat firm as NFL commissioner, defending his judgment and sentencing of Dan Snyder, an NFL owner, arguing the actions were unacceptable and that the league would “not permit” any further violations of its policies.

 

When pressed on if he would remove Mr. Synder from his position, Mr. Goodell’s response was, “I don’t have the authority to remove him”. 

 

Authority. 

 

Authority is what Daniel Snyder was excessing when he suggested he would fire any player that fraternized with a cheerleader. Authority was telling a supervisor to make sure to keep all his cheerleaders “skinny with big tits.” On the threat of death. Authority again leveraged against a female employee whom he touched insistently and attempted to push into a limo after a team dinner.

 

Authority is exactly the tool that Snyder weaponized to create victims over decades. He held it with an iron fist, and grew ever more confident with time, and why shouldn’t he? It kept him safe in 2009 when the Washington Post ousted him for settling with an employee. $1.6M, the going sum for the acquisition of sexual assault. It protected him for a month while the Commanders were allowed to dictate the investigation into their own owner, instigated by findings in the Wilkinson Report, and it was protecting him now. 

 

The rules of the land dictate that 24 of 32 team owners would have to publicly confirm to remove an owner to expunge them from their position. The vote is purposely created as a super majority ruling to ensure no owner would unnecessarily be removed from property that they by law, purchased and secured – a system intentionally designed to dissuade the action itself. An owner voting to demote one of their own might force questions, questions based on the nature of precedent, questions based on the nature of business. Removing an owner is a momentous task and undertaking not just for the league but the team, all the employees, and families fed from the machine.

 

Unfortunately that’s just the kind of thoughts that empower men like Snyder. This kind of undertaking is the context that enables the horrendous actions of a man who knows he’s more protected by a system than dissuaded. This kind of context justifies the authority he presumes to wield, when he engages women in advances, and misleads league officials about monetary reporting. 

 

Adam Silver stood in front of a room on NBA Media to dissect the same kind of justification Goodell used only a few months prior, but is now relevant in the discussion of Robert Sarver. “There are particular rights here to someone who owns an NBA team as opposed to someone who is an employee,” Silver stated in a response to a question about the type of actions Robert reportedly engaged in with employees and if he held any other job, would he be let go of.

 

Certain rights once again are the “context” we use to apply authority over others. In Sarver’s case, he expressed his authority by using the N-Word on multiple occasions, selective mistreatment of pregnant employees, and inappropriate contact or sexually-related comments directed at and with employees.

 

If Sarver held any other job in America, with these types of substantiated claims, there is little doubt he would be fired. “It’s different than holding a job.” Adam Silver stated, and he was right. This is a playground for the rich and powerful, and it’s protected by rules, rules that need to be broken so publicly and so harshly that a supermajority of like-minded individuals would be willing to say, “I no longer want you to be at the table.”

 

A supermajority of millionaires and social elites living a life disconnected from our own, a life disconnected from consideration and level playing grounds. A life where authority is welded and justifications are shaped in the name of limiting Public Relations hits and maintaining the status quo. 

 

Goodell and Silver will be judged by the Court of Public Opinion, as they should be in the face of standing adjacent to men who flaunt power in such disgusting ways, but they stand as walls, layers between. Just as supermajority votes add layers between owners and removal, Silver and Goodell stand as layers between owners and accountability. Opinions will be foisted onto Silver as he answers questions, when the ones with the power to create change, stand away from the lights and behind the curtains. The ones who continue to stand and work with men who create trauma, and victims. The ones who would only vote to remove an owner, if their own jobs would be affected.

 

The nuance of the situation is crafted as noise to stifle the only real question that matters. That’s a question Sarver didn’t concern himself with when telling a pregnant employee she no longer would be coordinating an event because she needed to “breastfeed”, but it was for the woman who broke down publicly and wept in front of him and possibly still is, when her mind floats back to that moment. The questions for morality, and for NBA owners the buck should stop there. 

 

******

Find much more of our content on the Five Reasons YouTube channel. Make sure to like and subscribe.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Commissioner Adam Silver Didn’t Do Enough

The NBA has temporarily rid itself of Robert Sarver, but the commissioner went soft on his ruling.  Having the majority Suns owner step away and fined the maximum penalty of $10 million under the collective bargaining agreement was an unsatisfying course of action when factoring in the findings of the Wacthell Lipton report.  

 

This situation is dissimilar to the Donald Sterling calamity that resulted in the sale of the Los Angeles Clippers in 2014. Still, given how the NBA handled that situation, it was unanticipated to see Silver not go balls to the wall.

 

The investigation focused on Sarver’s behavior and the workplace environment within the organization as a result of the Baxter Holmes report from Nov. 2021. This story detailed the insufferably hostile culture employees were subjected to by the team governor and other executives.

 

Silver addressed reporters on Wednesday and said he “was in disbelief” at the probe’s findings while feeling “saddened” and “disheartened.” According to him, the NBA handled it fairly, but Silver came up shorter than LeBron James at the free throw line in the closing moments of a game.  A one-year exile is an equivalent of sending a man of Sarver’s means into timeout and telling him he can come back after he’s thought about what he has done.  That frat boy has hurt people.  He deserves to be a league outcast indefinitely.  

 

No one should have to put up with a person who is comfortable exposing their dingaling in front of the workforce. Neither should they have to deal with some old white guy who cavalierly says the N-word even after being told not to. When people are on the job, they expect to be free of seeing or hearing about salacious behavior or *racial remarks*, but for 18 years, that was too much to ask for while working for the Phoenix Suns.

 

Yet, somehow the investigation found zero evidence of racial or gender-based animus regarding Sarver’s conduct.  This is the same man who hovered over one of his black coaches and aggressively threw a stat sheet down at the table where his instructor sat when displeased about a player’s performance.

 

Sarver is more toxic waste than asbestos.  I don’t care how involved and impactful his charities have been. Only  a man stranger to empathy has an attorney present when apologizing to a pregnant employee he insulted before chastising a witness. 

 

When Silver took questions from the media, he was hit with a curveball from Sports Illustrated Howard Beck.  He was asked why there should be a different standard for an owner than for every other employee.  Silver said, “There are particular rights here to someone who owns an NBA team as opposed to someone who is an employee.”

 

Translation of what Silver said:  Unless you’re paying my check, it’s unacceptable.  

 

It’s a shame the NBA doesn’t have an ally in this scenario as it did with Shelly Sterling in 2014.  As Ramona Shelburne explained on The Sterling Affairs, Donald was openly dating V. Stiviano. When  the tapes of his racist comments surfaced, the league had their opening to boot him because Shelly owned half of the Clippers.  She got her husband’s doctor to declare him unfit, which facilitated the sale.

 

The NBA doesn’t have an ace up its sleeve like Shelly.  For that reason, Silver said, “I don’t have the right to take his team away…” 

 

Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Cleveland’s Ceiling With Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell is a lucky man.  He now lives in the same city as the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.  Oh, and he’ll also be playing with a better-equipped squad to hide his deficiencies guarding opponents.

 

It might take the first couple of months of the year for coach JB Bickerstaff to calibrate the ball handling duties, late-game pecking order, and defensive principles now that his group added an All-Star.  Training camp and the preseason might highlight some favorable combinations, but the real test will come when the games matter.  But this experiment should work, at least before the Playoffs.  

 

Garland spent 95% of his minutes at point guard this season, but in 2020 as a rookie, he spent 3/4s of his time at shooting guard while Colin Sexton locked down the QB spot.  Playing off-ball is a skill Garland has demonstrated but with Mitchell integrated into the lineup, he should see more opportunities than he did in 2022.  It would allow him to work as a sniper that repositions after a screen or helps as a decoy.  Garland didn’t have many chances to show off this feature of his game after Sexton missed all but 11 games and Ricky Rubio was absent for 48.

 

The newest Cavalier, Spida, was third in usage among guards who qualified for league leaders in 2022.  Moments off-ball will come for Garland, but it’s essential that Mitchell sacrifices touches and his body for his backcourt mate and others too.  Screening is a fine technique that gets the initiator open as it does the player who received the help.  Using Mitchell as a pick-and-pop and screen-and-roll weapon would be tough to guard.  He has enough accuracy on his jumper to fire away outside the lane, or he could exhibit his speed on a cut to the rim after the catch.

 

Mitchell and Garland are elusive enough to burn a defender off the dribble to cause a breakdown.  They are also dynamic attacking through pick and roll.  If the defense is deploying drop coverage, Cleveland’s guards can force separation and pull up from the elbow while one defender is behind the hip of the ball handler and the other by the rim.

 

 Both are three-level scorers that bend defenses even when the ball is out of their hands.  Opponents will make difficult decisions when both are on the floor, and one catches fire.  If a trap or double is sent towards Mitchell or Garland, damage could be inflicted if the ball handler passes out on time to the nearest teammate, and then the rock is dished to a wide-open man.

 

But how much better are the Cavs?

 

Cleveland should enter the postseason without competing in the Play-In Tournament.  Defensively, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley provide backline protection when the Cavs’ guards get beat checking the perimeter.  Yet, always having to help because a teammate can’t stay in front of their matchup will unnecessarily tax Cleveland’s frontcourt by covering too much ground.

 

The defense’s ceiling-setting flaw is that the backcourt likely won’t guard up effectively when switched onto opponents of a different position.  If one of them is stuck in a mismatch near the paint, help will be sent, but at the risk of exposing space.

 

Garland and Mitchell are one-way players and small at 6’1. Spida’s long arms are a tool that could help him improve guarding his yard under the right defensive philosophy, but success on that end is about high ball IQ and effort.  Cleveland’s backcourt cannot afford to be overly reliant on its rim protection because the Cavs will want its twin towers as close to the paint to influence rivals into attacking exclusively from the perimeter.

 

Cleveland will be one of the most exciting teams to watch this upcoming season, but this trade doesn’t make them contenders.  Their backcourt could get hunted down if the opponent chooses to strike this weakness.  It’s an arduous challenge reaching the conference finals when a starting unit has just one player who is a liability guarding.  Cleveland has two.

 

For now, the Cavs are a second-round crasher.

 

*****

Use the code “five” at PrizePicks.com to double your initial deposit up to $100

 

Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Butler’s Time in Miami Won’t be for Nothing

 

Miami’s window for a championship will remain open as long as Jimmy Butler can produce as he has in two of the last three Playoffs.  Even then, he will still need some herculean efforts from his teammates, but if they fall short, it won’t mean his time wearing white-hot was a failure. 

 

Championship rings aren’t the only thing that matter in sports.  Sometimes the memories left blowing in the wind are worth as much.  In his tenure with the club, Butler-led groups gave Heat Nation two of their most enjoyable seasons in franchise history.  That was not guaranteed after LeBron James and Dwyane Wade left.

 

I’m old enough to remember when Butler arrived in Miami, the Heatles had just missed the Playoffs in Wade’s farewell season.  His addition was supposed to make the team respectable again as it briefly lingered in purgatory after Flash’s transient departure in 2016.

 

But Butler did more than that.  And now, the conversation among Heat supporters and media following the team has shifted towards the squad’s chances of competing for a title.  Butler set the bar high.

 

This wasn’t supposed to be the Heat’s outlook.  In 2019 the best players on the squad were Goran Dragić, Josh Richardson, and Hassan Whiteside.  Managing to flip two of those three in a four-team deal that netted Miami Butler was as prolific a steal as the Lufthansa Heist.  It changed the Heat’s fortunes because they got a dude who impacted winning and said the right things after the games in pressers.  

 

Butler may miss time nursing his injuries in the regular season that arise from his bruising style of play, but he’s been as dependable as one can be in the Playoffs. After Game 2 of the 2020 Finals, Butler had played over 44 minutes in the loss, and before he left the Zoom call, I asked him if he could play all 48.  He said he could and would do “whatever it takes to win.” In Game 5, he recorded a triple-double and played all but 48 seconds of the win.  He averaged 43 minutes a night in the six-game series Miami lost to the Los Angeles Lakers for the championship.

 

The fine details about a team losing Game 7 at home are infrequently remembered.  Some might point to Boston’s win at Miami to claim the eastern crown as a stain against Butler’s term.  But I don’t.  He did miss a pull-up triple on the right wing that Boston’s Jayson Tatum admitted “could have sent us home,” but his legs were dead.  He had played 47 minutes and logged 35 points and nine rebounds on the stat sheet.  Butler finished the season, leaving every ounce of effort he generated on the floor.  

 

The Heat is a relatively new franchise at 35 years old, but they, at different points in time, have been the employers of a distinguished Hall of Famers who left their indelible mark.  James, Wade, Chris Bosh, Shaquille O’Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Tim Hardaway, Ray Allen, are as legit as it gets when it comes to elite talent being a part of an organization.  With all Butler has done in three seasons, he has elevated himself to the third most important figure in the team’s history behind Wade and James.

 

******

Double your deposit up to $100 by using the code “five” at PrizePicks.com

Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Better Scorer…. LeBron or Kareem?

LeBron James is 1,325 points behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the regular season for the all-time scoring crown.  He’ll shatter the record before the upcoming NBA year concludes if Father Time doesn’t visit him and claim some of his powers.  If that happens, he’ll still have until 2025, when his contract expires.  

 

When James claims the record, will it mean he’s a better scorer than Abdul-Jabbar?  It depends on who you ask and how old they are.  

 

LeBron is one of the most efficient scorers the league has ever seen, and to his credit, he averaged a career-high in points per game in his 19th season.  The millions he spends annually on maintaining his body are paying off by keeping him in world-class shape.  

 

Indeed, the rule changes throughout the last few decades have tilted the game entirely in favor of the offensive player.  This has assisted James and players of his era by lowering the degree of difficulty to score because there is less physicality in the league now.  Defenders can’t hand check, and more recently, shooters have additional protection because of the unofficially named Zaza Pachulia rule.  According to the NBA’s law, defenders must give a shooter landing space.

 

These rules are a good thing.  When the game was more physical, it could allow certain players to affect the outcome of a match without using basketball skills.  Some of the effects of the rule changes, like the game becoming more perimeter-oriented, are not such a great thing, but that’s an argument for another day.  

 

LeBron hurts a defense primarily within 0-10 feet from the basket.  He’s never been better than a streaky shooter, but he never had to be with how efficient he is inside the paint.  Although, in certain situations, being guarded in single coverage on the perimeter, I wish LeBron would just cut or use his body to post up instead of taking a jumper.  When he settles for outside looks, he guards himself by forfeiting an opportunity to bang down low.  For his career, James converts 73.7% of the shots he takes within 0-3 feet of the cup.

 

 

In the first half of LeBron’s career, he was an unforgiving wrecking ball.  His cuts to the basket had to be guarded below and above the rim.  Those who followed his career can vividly remember when he jumped over John Lucas III on the baseline, caught a lob from Dwyane Wade, and slammed it, all with one hand.  Or when he obliterated Jason Terry with his chest for futilely trying to contest an alley-oop. 

 

James is a slasher. Despite his inconsistencies as a perimeter shooter, the more concerning flaw to his game, aside from underusing the post, is that he isn’t near automatic from the line.  He’s finished five seasons recording below 70% from the charity stripe.  In 2021/2022, James was 18th in the NBA in free throw attempts (6), but someone as tall, muscular, and agile as he should be taking close to double-digit freebies, making a minimum of 80%.

 

 

A player doesn’t have to be a flashy gunslinger to be considered the best at dropping points.  As far as the most recognized scorers of his era- Kobe Byrant, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry- James has a higher career field goal percentage and points per game average than all minus KD.  Durant is behind James in field goal percentage by a hair, but he barely leads the Lakers forward in scoring average.

 

Having gotten this close to Abdul-Jabbar is mind-blowing.  I thought his record was untouchable, but it’s inevitable James makes it his.  Like Kareem said, “The game always improves when records like that are broken.”

 

Abdul-Jabbar played from 1969-1989.  Basketball wasn’t the spaced-out game that is seen today because the NBA didn’t have a 3-point line until 1979, and after its arrival, it wasn’t valued by the players like the current generation does.  The ballers, then too, had more leeway with contact.  Despite that, Kareem was still lighting up the league with his arsenal of post moves.  

 

It should also be noted that Kareem played the first 12 seasons of his career, scoring on hard rims.  Any shot attempted had to be clean for it to go in, and there were not as many friendly bounces before the breakaway rim was introduced.

 

The masses ceaselessly and incorrectly give Abdul-Jabbar props saying his skyhook was unguardable.  Click here for proof of Wilt Chamberlain swatting multiple attempts on the same possession.  Julius Erving, Bill Willoughby, and Manute Bol also deserve a head nod for blocking Kareem’s hook from behind.  

 

The skyhook was indefensible against 99% of the league because it was something he worked on from the time he was in fifth grade.  It was mastered when he arrived at UCLA.  

 

Even with the NCAA forbidding dunks from 1967-1977, Kareem still dropped over 2,300 points before making the pros.  

 

Abdul-Jabbar was a master in the post. Defenders would lean on his hip to bump him off his spot, and he would respond by aiming his left shoulder at the basket and catapulting a shot with his right.  Or he would hit a fader, back down an opponent, or pivot past them for a layup or dunk.

 

One of the coldest moments in NBA history was the closing moments of overtime in Game 6 of the 1974 Finals.  Down a point with seven seconds left, Kareem caught a pass at the right elbow, pivoted, and took off towards the rim, facing a double team.  He raised on the baseline and buried his signature move, extending the season finale to another game.

 

Verdict

 

Who gets the edge?   What determines who is the better scorer, in my book, is who was harder to guard.  

 

They are dissimilar players.  James, a point-forward, he decides who gets the ball.  Abdul-Jabbar was a center and, like a wideout in football, depended on his playmaker feeding him the rock.

 

Both of them are most lethal near the rim.  At 7’2, Abdul-Jabbar is five inches taller than James, and the size advantage creates more mismatches against defenders.  Being a towering post scorer also leaves a player in great position to recover offensive rebounds for putbacks.  

 

Before LeBron developed an adequate outside shot, intelligent rivals would sag off, daring him to misfire.  It was a safer bet than guarding close up and conceding a lane.  Even through traffic, to this day,  James is an excellent finisher, but his kryptonite inside the paint is a legit shot blocker.

 

Kareem’s hook is so deadly that when he missed, it was more his fault than the man guarding him.  Aside from the Dipper, nobody had a chance of contesting it straight up.  Not in this life.  The others who blocked it from behind made unforgettable saves that must have bewildered the  “tower of power”.  But that move ate up schemes deployed to neutralize Abdul-Jabar, and he still had an abundance of other techniques to use.  

 

In this department, I’ll roll with Kareem, regardless of his reign as scoring leader, eventually coming to a close.  

 

When it’s all over, the only thing people will be able to say when examining the record is that at the peak of their powers, the league was theirs.

 

******

Play LeBron James and others at PrizePicks.com with the code “five” and get your deposit matched up to $100.