Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Mavericks Annihilate Heat

For the second time in a week, the Miami Heat came up winless on primetime TV. First in Atlanta on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, then on Friday, in Dallas for a second-half buzzsaw as brutal as JFK’s ride through the city. The team’s tape review will assuredly be as horrifying as the Zapruder Film.

Miami only logged three assists and six field goals in the first quarter. The Mavs’ length in man-to-man coverage, plus double-teaming Jimmy Butler in the half-court, froze the Heat’s offense. Bam Adebayo, uncharacteristically, laid five close-range duds in the period and didn’t record his first basket until a minute into the second quarter, his sixth attempt. The two positive team signs that followed were that Miami found chances at the line and Victor Oladipo never went cold.

The Heatles managed to slow the game down with its 27 charity stripe shots, but that didn’t stop the wild horses. When Miami deployed drop coverage against Luka Dončić in pick and roll, Adebayo was the low man unable to contain his drive to the cup. Again in PNR, this time against Caleb Martin playing tight, Dončić dribbled left towards the wing, stepped back and canned a triple.

The end of the first quarter was an omen. With three seconds left, Luka caught the ball at midcourt off a sideline inbound, assisted by Dwight Powell’s screen on Adebayo. Martin reached and missed on the steal, leaving Dončić dribbling towards the right wing. From 37 feet away, he splashed over Max Strus’ late contest.

Through 12 minutes, Miami was down by 14 points. They managed to cut the deficit to nine at the intermission, led by Oladipo’s four out of four made shots and Adebayo and Tyler Herro remembering how to score.

Vic isolated Powell for a running hook with no help, blew by Reggie Bullock for a layup, hit two shots after curling into the lane aided by a screen and buried a transition triple. Bam hit a couple of layups in transition with one tap-in off Herro’s miss from the left wing. Like an elite offensive lineman, #13 provided the openings for his man, Herro, to creep into the paint on two of his baskets. Tyler’s other two field goals came zipping past Tim Hardaway Jr. for a pull-up and a turnaround hook in the low post.

Of course, what followed was the turd quarter. This festering issue came back like the unwelcome yearly tax bill. In this frame, the Heatles were beat on the glass by six and misfired on 13 out of 19 shots and three of its six free throws.

Kyle Lowry’s first-quarter spark didn’t have an encore. He recorded a couple of transition baskets and then made one free throw through 12 minutes in quarters two and three. He didn’t take a shot in his eight minutes of second-half action.

Errors were also made on the other side. Even on a SLOB pass, a late switch on Dončić, the inbounder, left Spencer Dinwiddie open on the right wing for a triple. Defending PNR, Miami blitzed Luka with Oladipo and Martin up top on the right. It was no thang. Dončić passed over both of them, finding the roll man, Powell, in the middle for a bank shot.

Unfortunately for the visitors, there was no mercy rule after 36 minutes. Courtesy of the Mavericks’ 25-point lead, Butler and Lowry rested during the final period. The most alarming stat of the evening was Miami was wiped out in points off turnovers, 31-10, in favor of Dallas.

Coach Erik Spoelstra said postgame the night was wasted. “We were never able to have that competitive disposition that we’ve had virtually all season long…”

Politely, Spo told everyone his team gave up.

 

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Gabe Vincent starting over Kyle Lowry is the Spark Miami Needs

The Miami Heat is currently enjoying its best (and healthiest) stretch of basketball this season. They’ve won 12 of their last 18 games and appear poised to make up lost ground over the remaining 37 games. In the midst of finding a rhythm, a scintillating two-game stretch from Gabe Vincent has ignited an interesting debate among Heat fans:

 

Should Vincent continue to start at point guard, even when Kyle Lowry returns to the lineup?

 

Before setting the stage, we have to get one thing clear: shame on Lowry. The sole fact that this is even up for debate is an indictment on his tenure in Miami. Sure, there have been some good moments. But ultimately his impact has not lived up to the near $30 million yearly price tag it took to acquire him. Because of that, two-impressive games from Vincent against the Milwaukee Bucks’ JV team was all it took for fans to begin beating the drum. Let it be known that this discussion has much more to do with Lowry than it does with Vincent. Let’s proceed.

 

At face value, the Heat are an average team offensively. At least that’s what the numbers indicate. They are outscoring opponents by less than a point per 100 possessions (0.4) and it has them sitting in the 52nd percentile as a result.

 

With Lowry on the floor, the numbers get worse.

 

Across the 1,257 minutes he’s played this season, Miami is a -2.4 per 100 possessions. That’s a pretty big sample size. As for Vincent, the numbers tell an entirely different story. The Heat is a +2.8 per 100 possessions in his 782 minutes on the floor this season.

 

In nearly every advanced stat, Miami is a negative with Lowry and a positive with Vincent – both offensively and defensively.

 

That said, it would be naive to derive an opinion from solely looking at just one source of individual advanced stat. After all, injuries have forced Miami to trot out a plethora of different lineup combinations and taking a closer look could paint a better picture.

 

The Heat’s most-used lineup this season has been that of Lowry – Tyler Herro – Caleb Martin – Jimmy Butler – Bam Adebayo. This group has seen a total of 405 possessions together and has been solid in every way. They are outscoring teams by more than nine points per 100 possessions and forcing turnovers on 18.4% of opponents possessions. That’s like, really good. (It’s also an indicator on where Miami would be if they could just stay healthy).

 

Things get even more interesting if you substitute Vincent for Lowry with the rest of the group staying the same. Are you ready for these numbers? In Vincent’s 68 total possessions with the rest of Miami’s starters, the Heat are outscoring opponents by 23.5 points per 100 possessions and humming with a 61.1 eFG%. I know, it’s a very small sample size, but we’re here to have some fun, right?

 

It’s plain as day. Vincent has been more valuable to the Heat this season during his time on the floor per the numbers. Overreacting to a few good games and making drastic changes isn’t wise. But with Lowry continuing to operate on career-low efficiency and Miami flirting with play-in territory, they are running out of time to figure it out.

 

Vincent has the hot hand. His offensive spark is exactly what the Heat need to jumpstart their climb back to being one of the many juggernauts of the East.

 

 And if one thing is true it’s this: Erik Spoelstra isn’t afraid to ride the hot hand. Just ask Duncan Robinson.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Gabe Vincent Shines in Kyle Lowry’s Absence

The Heatles went 2-0 in the miniseries against the Fawns between Thursday and Saturday in Miami. Giannis Antetokounmpo sat because of knee soreness, a gift for the hosts that assisted in padding its league record. Now, for the first time this season, the Heat are four games above .500.

Miami’s 2-3 zone followed up its masterful work securing the interior and influencing the Bucks to almost exclusively play from the outside. Over both games, Milwaukee logged a meager 44 points in the paint. Yet, on Saturday, the Bucks got five more attempts in the square (25) than it had previously. Although, Miami held them to 24.4 percentage points below the league average in the restricted area (40%).

More evidence that the zone neutered the Bucks: Bobby Portis, who converts 69% of tries at the rim and half from 3-10 feet, for the season, missed two in the restricted area and shot 33% in the rest of the lane, plus Brook Lopez attempted just one shot in the box.Typically, half of Lopez’s looks come from the paint.

Miami started the first half sizzling from deep, primarily behind the marksmanship of Kyle Lowry’s understudy, Gabe Vincent, who made five out of seven 3-pointers for the period. While he took spot-up shots and splashed trays off the dribble, he was as radiant as the Wolf-Rayet star.

Vincent’s first two-pointer didn’t come until early in the second quarter. A failed pick by Orlando Robinson minimally freed Gabe from AJ Green in the right corner. Green went over the screen, taking away the driving lane, but Vincent pulled up for a long contested two that swished.

Next, as #2 dribbled in transition, Bam Adebayo screened Grayson Allen at the top of the key. Vincent used the opening to get to the nail for his second jumper, unbothered.

For his third midrange shot of the half, Adebayo, again, shielded his defender in the halfcourt at the top. Vincent stepped into the lane, attacked Portis in drop coverage, and hit a floater covered by the low man and his initial matchup, Allen.

At the intermission, Vincent had 21 points. His efficiency from the field continued in the last 24 minutes but on a smaller volume of three out of four made buckets with an assist, a rebound and a pair of steals. He finished the game with 27 points, two shy of the career high he set on Thursday.

At the postgame press conference, Vincent said, “I think I was just in a rhythm, and my guys did a really good job of getting me open time and time again. Whether that’s shutting the screen or cutting, or finding me when I’m open in the corner… They did a good job of that, and I made some shots. That always helps.”

These back-to-back games for Vincent scoring at least 20 points have only happened four times in his career. The first time was in 2021, between Jan. 12-14. The second was later that year, from Dec. 15-17. The third was in 2022, on Feb. 28 and March 2. His latest was Thursday and Saturday. For whatever it’s worth, the starting point guard for this team, Lowry, has only done that three times in a Heat uniform through one and a half seasons.

The production at the one spot has been so unreliable this year for the Heatles that Vincent’s last week of play should instantly spark a controversy over who gets the shine and who becomes the squire. This is not an overreaction to facing a two-time MVP-less squad. The last time Lowry recorded at least 20 points in a game was on Dec. 23, and he’s done it in six of his 36 nights of action. Keep in mind there are currently 42 players qualifying for league leaders who are averaging at least 20 a night.

For the record, holding that average for a starting point guard is unnecessary. But shooting above 40% for the season is. This puts Miami in an awkward spot because both Lowry and Vincent are below that.

Age has diminished Lowry’s ability. If Vincent doesn’t take his spot he should eat a large chunk of the veteran’s minutes.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Victor Oladipo Makes His Teammates’ Jobs Easier

Heat culture revived Victor Oladipo’s career. Then he saved the outfit’s season. In five of his last six games, he’s scored in double figures and helped Miami capture four wins. The five weeks it’s taken for Vic to find himself had a significant impact on the club’s two-way production.

It’s a darn shame the NBA has no official comeback player of the year award anymore. For the past four seasons, Oladipo has been plagued with injuries that robbed him of his natural gifts.

Since his first game this season for Miami on Dec. 6, Oladipo has suited up 17 out of 19 times. Before his insertion in the rotation, the Heat placed 18th in October and 13th in November in defensive rating. In December, Miami was ninth and currently first in the same stat for the six games played in January (4-2).

Even when he arrived in Miami, badly needing a second surgery to address the lingering pain in his right knee tendon, he was still a bullet on defense. He played in four games prior to reaggrevating the injury while logging 25 minutes in a win against the Lakers at home.

Last season, Oladipo doubled that to eight regular season matches between March. 7- Apr. 10, 2022. In the team’s last outing of the year against the Magic in Orlando, Vic had a 40-point outburst. His finest performance in the playoffs for Miami came when it eliminated the Hawks in Game 5 at home. It was his only start in the postseason, and he recorded 23 points with three rebounds and three takeaways.

On Thursday against a depleted Bucks squad, Oladipo came off the bench for 14 points, eight assists, eight rebounds and a steal. In his 33 minutes, he assisted Miami in securing the paint (18 points allowed) and holding Milwaukee to 40.2% shooting from the floor.

On his first score, he sized up Milwaukee’s Jordan Nwora on the left wing, then hit a triple in his face.

Pick and roll with Orlando Robinson provided Vic the opening to slice into the lane for a reverse layup under the rim on his next basket. His interception of a loose ball at the top of the key ignited a one-on-one fastbreak against Pat Connaughton on the next one. In full stride, Oladipo spun past his defender for a finish before the tracking Nwora could disrupt the play with a chase-down.

On his fourth make, Bam Adebayo set a screen against Jevon Carter. Unwisely, Carter went under the pick, and #4 canned a 27-foot triple. For his last field goal, Oladipo recovered his own missed jumper with no Bucks in the restricted area and went back up for a putback layup.

For the first time this season, the Miami Heat are three games above .500. This position is nothing to brag about, but considering how poorly the year began for the club, the group’s stock is rising. Oladipo is a significant factor behind that and probably the team’s fourth-best player. He can create separation without a screen, a skill that’s eluded Kyle Lowry because of age. For this reason, Miami must ride the wave of Vic’s solid play as long as it can.

His impact makes his teammates’ lives easier on the court. Listen to Tyler Herro. Following Miami’s loss on Sunday to the Nets, he said, “I tell [Oladipo] when I’m playing off the ball, it helps me a lot when he’s in the game. Just cause they’re so focused on me. When Vic comes in it gives another threat who can shoot, attack and do really everything offensively… He looks for me in transition. I tell him to be aggressive as much as possible.”

If this production level from Oladipo continues, the probability of the Heat securing home-court advantage through round one of the playoffs doesn’t seem so unrealistic.

 

 

 

 

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Historic Night for Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat

 

On Tuesday, the Heat survived being undermanned and a meltdown of one of their own. Without Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin, Miami beat the Oklahoma City Thunder by a point in a match that had 10 lead changes, six ties, as well as personal and team records set.

To dictate evening affairs within the first few minutes, Miami had pierced the lane for 10 of its first 13 points. The only outside shot was a Max Strus triple, created by Jimmy Butler absorbing the defense on a post-up and having the ball swing outside until it reached mad Max in the corner.

The hosts sliced up the point-of-attack defense, found a weak spot in the post, plus logged two points off a recovery. On the second score for Miami, Orlando Robinson caught the ball a few feet from the basket following OKC’s blitz on Gabe Vincent. Swarmed by Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miami’s backup big man canned a four-foot hook shot.

Then, Strus took Jalen Williams off the dribble on the left wing for a lane floater in between SGA along with his initial defender.

The Heat bricked back-to-back triples in the same possession, but Haywood Highsmith, camping on the right baseline, recouped a second miss and went back up for a layup, using his left shoulder as a shield.

Pick and roll with Butler and Robinson sucked in the OKC’s 2-3 zone. Next, Butler passed to Vincent on the right wing. The opening in front allowed him into probe the lane for a shot at the cup.

As Giddey punctured the paint in transition, Robinson intercepted his pass to Eugene Omoruyi, sparking a boat race for Butler in the open court. In the interior, he muscled past SGA for a one-foot layup. Timeout OKC.

The Heat had defensive lapses in the first half, but stunningly, the Thunder recorded 56 points for the period. Max Strus fouled a 3-point shooter. Miami’s 2-3 zone was dissected allowing multiple backdoor cuts, which led to a spat between coach and pupil.

As Dewayne Dedmon was subbed out for Robinson a few minutes into the second quarter, Heat assistant coach Caron Butler scolded him for his ghastly zone coverage after giving up the baseline multiple times. Then D-Mac lost his cool. He whined at coach Spo before getting told to bounce to the locker room. On his way to the dressers, he smacked a surface that catapulted a massage gun onto the floor, stopping regulation. The refs then formally ejected him.

Dedmon’s insolence could have caused a young team or a damaged outfit to nosedive in the game after his theatrics. Fortunately for the Heat, even without combustible firepower or with their backup big’s volatile sideline crisis, they had enough against a rebuilding squad.

Yet, Miami’s ace through four quarters was Butler. He converted all 14 free throws in the first half and would finish the game a flawless 23 out of 23 from the charity stripe. His production tied Dwyane Wade’s record for most free throws made by a Heat player in a game set on Feb.1, 2007. This kind of action was like watching Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans disembowel a defensive line.

Butler’s dominion of the stripe assisted the Heat defensively because it took away fastbreak opportunities that the Thunder usually thrive in. OKC is third in the NBA in pace (102.35). On Tuesday, Miami slowed them down to nearly two points below their average (1.85) and shockingly scored more in the open court than the visitors (14-13).

The second half was ugly. Miami made only 33.3% of its field goals and 29.4% of its triples and was outrebounded 27-19. No one aside from Butler recorded more than three baskets (4) in the last 24 minutes.

In the fourth quarter, Strus, Vincent and Victor Oladipo played every minute. While down 96-91 with eight minutes left, OKC committed a clear path foul against Vic, giving him two freebies with Miami keeping possession. Oladipo buried both; then he hoisted up a 3-pointer from the left wing that missed. Strus back-tapped an offensive rebound to Vincent at the top of the key. Gabe took one dribble forward, splashed the triple, and one more at the line after a foul by Tre Mann to complete a six-point swing.

With 53.1 seconds left, the Heatles were down five points. An Oladipo transition triple on the left wing, two missed freebies by OKC’s Kenrich Williams, and Butler’s bucket plus his 23rd free throw, dug Miami out of its grave. That last point to put Miami over at 112-111 was Miami’s 40th attempted and made free throw of the night, setting a new NBA record.

After the game, Spo said he and his staff were enjoying being 1-0 in the second half of the season and that going to the presser was a buzzkill. On what occurred, he said, “To be able to get 23 free throws reminds me of another guy.”

Butler, as usual, was more excited about the dub than records. “I’m proud of my guys, and I hope my other guys get healthy so we can get back out there and compete as well.”

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Adebayo, Herro and Oladipo are Stunting on Tour

Quietly, the Miami Heat have turned into road warriors. They’ve won eight out of their last eleven games away from FTX Arena, stretching back to Nov. 27.  One of the victories was against the San Antonio Spurs on neutral territory in Mexico City.

 

On Monday evening, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo continued stunting on tour and were Miami’s key players in consecutive road wins.  Two nights before in Utah without Jimmy Butler, Miami found itself in a second-half shootout.  

 

The defense against the Jazz wasn’t sharp, giving up 123 points, but it wasn’t an abomination either.  The Heatles locked down the interior, only allowing 32 points, but where they suffered was containing snipers behind the 3-point line.  It’s too much to give up, yet, it can be excused that time only because Butler was out and due to all of the encouraging signs seen on offense. 

 

Adebayo was a pick-and-roll merchant, finishing off passes from Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Herro.  On one sequence, after the pick, Adebayo caught a Herro pass at the elbow and spun into the lane for a fall-away jumper over Kelly Olynyk. He also hit four mid-range shots, one at the left elbow and three from both mid posts.  

 

Oladipo logged 23 points on 45% efficiency with three steals, five assists, five rebounds and a block.  He scored from three areas, hitting two inside the paint, one from mid-range, plus four triples.  When Vic isolated Lauri Markkanen at the top of the key, he drove right, dusting his mismatch and nailed a layup off the glass over Walker Kessler’s help side contest.  

 

Oladipo’s last close-range finish came with over six minutes left, with Miami down 107-104.  Again at the key, Oladipo went one-on-one, this time with Olynyk.  He drove right and hit the launching pad outside of the restricted area and challenged the active shot blocker, Kessler, for a ruthless jam with contact.  

 

Herro was cold from the outside.  Before the final play, he converted two out of nine shots beyond the arc but was an immaculate five of five in the interior.  Throughout four quarters, he wrapped around front-court screens for quick entry into the lane for floaters and pull-up jumpers while also punching one fastbreak dunk.

 

Strangely, it’s not a preferred strategy of coach Erik Spoelstra to have his team foul the other club when Miami is up three points, and the other team has the final possession.  This put the Heat in a position to potentially get hosed.  Miami’s Haywood Highsmith was called for a phantom foul on Lauri Markkanen’s triple to tie.  At the charity line, the Finnish assassin buried three.  Tie game.

 

On the last play of the night, the ball was inbounded to Herro with six seconds left.  Jordan Clarkson attempted full-court press, but a stun dribble by #13 froze him, getting his defender running at his right hip as he dribbled with his left.  Herro then took off one leg behind the arc, in between two defenders and another in front, for a triple that cashed as the horn sounded.   

 

On Monday night, Butler was back in the lineup for the game versus the Clippers.  Fortunately for the visitors, Kawhi Leonard missed his 23rd night of the season, giving the Heat a chance to throw more schemes at Paul George.  Miami ended the evening, limiting George to seven out of 16 shooting from the floor.  PG’s defensive field goal percentage against the five Heat players he switched onto was 60% on 10 tries.

 

The Clippers could barely score in the box.  The Heat’s 2-3 zone was masterful in dissuading close-range looks, only allowing 26 attempts in the interior for 28 points.

 

Miami was also solid attacking the glass, out-rebounding LAC by 14 when only having four fewer turnovers.

 

Butler had an off-game.  He was getting to the line but not making freebies at his usual rate while finding open teammates.  Once again, Bam, Tyler and Vic took over with serious contributions from Strus.  

 

Adebayo broke 30 points(31) for the fifth time this season and had at least 30 in back-to-back games for the second time in his career.  The first occasion was this campaign in wins over 

Washington and Atlanta on Nov. 25 & 27.  

 

With just over eight minutes left, Strus curled into the lane with the help of Adebayo’s screen.  He missed under the rim, but Bam trailed the play and put back a thunderous slam.  

 

Once more, he was a threat in pick and roll/pop with Herro.  Even against multiple solid contests from Ivica Zubac at the nail, Bam pulled up off the catch for two points each time.

 

Herro was explosive from deep, logging five out of nine made triples, all in between the wings. Off a handoff from Adebayo, Herro splashed a 3-pointer over the four tentacles of John Wall and Zubac.  

 

Three of Herro’s long-range missiles came off dribble pull-ups, one of them scored in transition in front of Reggie Jackson, who was dropped too low by the free-throw line.

 

While the Heat was up seven points with fewer than two minutes left, Herro crossed PG and got to the mid-post for a shot over the four limbs of Jackson and George to put Miami up nine.  

 

Oladipo has looked like the former Black Panther in his latest pair of games.  Against the Clippers, he recorded 15 points on six out of 11 shots and held his eight matchups to 38% shooting from the field.

 

Vic and Tyler were the only Heatles to play every fourth-quarter minute.  At the right wing, Oladipo broke down Luke Kennard and dribbled over to the nail for a one-legged step-back jumper.  Later in the period, he targeted Kennard again and found the switch when Strus curled to the key and split the screen.  Oladipo then dashed toward the restricted area for a soft kiss off the glass.  

 

With Monday’s win over the Clippers, Butler (21.3) has now fallen behind Adebayo (21.5) and Herro (21.5) in scoring average for the team, per NBA Stats.  #13 and #14 continue to climb the mountain of NBA development, and lately, it’s paid dividends for an outfit that has had its best player in and out of the lineup.  

 

The Heat’s record is now two games above .500 for the first time this season (20-18).  Perhaps they are turning the page on a poor start. 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Don’t Blame Kyle Lowry for the Miami Heat’s Mess

In 18 months, Kyle Lowry has played in 103 games, regular season + Playoffs, for the Miami Heat. He’s helped them get to Game 7 of the eastern conference finals and is currently assisting the group in regaining ground in the standings (eighth, 17-17).

Since he got to Miami, Lowry has dealt with fair and unjust criticism. It’s written enough online that he hasn’t scored enough or got inside the paint with two feet as easily as in previous stops. One of the most common verbal jabs was that he looked too heavy.

Miami started well in 2021/2022. It masked the eye test of the unit’s lead guard performing below expectations. He played too much from the outside, and his numbers were down significantly. This season, he’s operating the same way, but the Miami Heat hasn’t achieved nearly the same level of success because of too many issues plaguing the team.

Likely the Heat’s no.1 problem is that Jimmy Butler has missed 38.2% of the season. Through Miami’s first 34 games in 2021/2022, JB appeared in 19 matches, and the Heat held a 21-13 record, per Basketball Reference. That type of achievement is unsustainable in back-to-back years in the NBA without a team’s best player.

This season has been filled with crushing disappointments at home. Did Lowry ominously drop off when he got to Miami, or is this the player he was for a while before wearing white hot?

Lowry will be 37 on March 25. He hasn’t taken more than half of his shots from inside the arc since 2015/2016. In those seven seasons after, #7 has only had three years where over 40% of his attempts were 2-pointers.

The Heatles aren’t as lethal from 3-point range through 34 games as they were when they got to the ECF. Then, Miami was second in the NBA in efficiency from the corners and second in percentage on above the break triples. This season, the Heat are 29th and 17th in those categories.

With the Heat not converting at the same rate as it previously did, opponents can now liberally send more help on drives or cuts to the basket, daring Miami into a drive-and-kick. That’s not a favorable coverage for someone who has lost a step or two.

Most times Lowry gets by a defender in the half court, he has the help of a screen. In the open court, he is dangerous because of his high IQ and on-target hit-ahead passes. The issue is that Miami is not a group that plays fast. They are 26th in transition frequency and 28th in pace.

Even if the Heat were to play quicker, I’m not sure how much Lowry’s body could sustain competing for the 35.9 minutes he is now before bumps and bruises emerge. He’s currently averaging two more minutes a night than last season and is on pace to play nine more games.

It’s an unrealistic expectation to hold someone in their mid-30s to the standard they set while in their prime. Some fools might continue to place too much responsibility on Lowry because of the dimensions of his contract ending in 2024. Whatever he earns is the fault of the front office, not his.

The front office’s gamble paid off splendidly last year. The Heat was probably a shot away from a second trip in three seasons to the NBA Finals. It was also one of the most exciting years for supporters in the franchise’s history. I won’t take that for granted.

The Heat are stuck in purgatory, but this season is only 41% over. I’ve seen stranger and more fortunate things happen to those less deserving, like the 2018/2019 Houston Rockets. On Dec. 12, 2018, the James Harden-led squad had won 12 games, and the outfit was 14th in the western conference. That team, inspired by a historic run from the Beard, finished as the fourth seed with 53 wins.

For the Heat to get the most out of Lowry, it will need its best players around consistently. Key guys in-and-out of the lineup hurts the team’s continuity.

The Miami Heat Are Back At .500 (Again)

Without the headliners, the Heat beat the Timberwolves at home and improved to a .500 record (17-17) for the fourth time this season. It was the first night since Dec. 5 that Miami wasn’t a victim of the infamous turd quarter. 

 

Magnificently, while Miami was off target from the perimeter during the first half, they clobbered the Wolves inside and finished 18 out of 24 shots.  In this period, Minnesota couldn’t stay in front of Tyler Herro when he focused on the interior.  He used a Nikola Jović screen to dust D’Angelo Russell and snake dribbled into the lane for a floater.  

 

On his next pair of buckets, he drove left past Austin Rivers at the top of the key for an uncontested finish at the cup. On his last make of the first half, Herro isolated Rivers at the key.  Haywood Highsmith came curling from the post to set a pick, but #14 rejected it, reset, then drove left again past his matchup for a pull-up jumper in the paint.

 

Ahead of the intermission, Heat rookie Orlando Robinson logged 10 points on five out of six tries, plus six rebounds.  He ran inverted pick and roll with Victor Oladipo, and slammed the rock inside after the reception on his first evening score.  Another of his buckets came as the roll man after freeing up his teammate. Three more baskets were putbacks after diving to the rim.

 

Undermanned and up three points at halftime, in the middle of the madness of key players out of the lineup, the Heat likely found their backup center.  Because of injuries and matchups, the reserve five spot has been a revolving door this campaign.  Robinson’s recent work as a screener, roller and rebounder immediately makes him the best Robinson on the team and the main option at center when Adebayo sits and the team waits for Ömer Yurtseven to return from his ankle injury.

 

Max Strus finding his jumper and contributing five triples on 50% shooting, in addition to two dunks on cuts from the baseline, was also instrumental in Miami’s dub.  

 

As a unit, the Heat protected the ball well, only allowing nine turnovers (league average is 14.7) and four fastbreak points.  Minnesota’s 22 turnovers, nine of them coming off Miami steals, is the primary reason why the home team finished a three-point game taking 23 more shots.  In the second half, both squads scored 54 points, but the visitors shot 14.8% better from the field and 16.3% higher from 3-point range.

 

 It was surprisingly one of Miami’s finest wins of the season.  On most occasions, when a group is down their two best players, I am conditioned to expect them to lose.  Even with Minnesota having Karl-Anthony Towns absent with an injured calf, the Wolves still had two All-Star caliber players on the floor in Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert.

 

Up three points and with 2.5 seconds left, Miami was curiously defending a Jaden McDaniels sideline out-of-bounds pass with Kyle Lowry, the shortest man on the floor.  Luckily for the hosts, the entry pass was a bit wide to a cutting Russell, who couldn’t secure it.  Lowry got a swipe on the ball; then Victor Oladipo flung it into the air.  Next, the curtains closed.

 

The Heat still has a long way to go before they climb out of purgatory.

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: The Miami Heat Are Stuck

Decent teams don’t lose at home by 20 to a six-win group in December. Congratulations to the Detroit Pistons for its seventh win of the season. This is a genuine compliment. They did a tremendous service to observers watching the home outfit.

Whoever follows the Heat, if they needed another reason not to take this team seriously, they now have one. It doesn’t matter that Miami was missing Jimmy Butler. Detroit only had two road wins before they rolled into FTX(?) Arena and the visitors delivered the Heat its fifth home loss of the year.

Let’s not forget how last season, the Heat didn’t have that many Ls in its building until Jan.15.

It was dreadful enough that on Monday night, Miami couldn’t hang with a Grizzlies team down three starters. On Tuesday, the Heatles started the game shooting well from the field, ending the period with a 16.7-point differential in shooting percentage in their favor.

Yet, after 12 minutes, Miami was just up five points because they were recklessly taking care of the ball.

Defensively, Miami’s 2-3 zone was about as fierce as a golden retriever. The Heat barely had a three-point lead at halftime, thanks to Herro making all seven field goal attempts for 21 points in the period.

In the second half, Detroit connected on half of its 3-pointers, making 10. Six of those triples were splashed by Bojan Bogdanović. His pump fake at the top of the key even got Adebayo to leave his feet. Bojan then found Killian Hayes in the right corner for a give-and-go he finished as he avoided taking a charge under the rim.

While Detroit was inbounding under the basket, Miami was set up in its usual zone. Hayes noticed Herro too far from Bogdanović in the left corner and zipped a pass to his man. Tyler, too, bit on the Croatian sniper’s outside fake, leaping into the personal space of his teammates on the bench. Bojan dribbled to the post and converted a jumper over Max Strus and Herro, who managed to get back to the frame.

What the Pistons did to the Heat was a humbling reminder that botching defensive assignments will make solid players like Bogdanović resemble an all-time marksman like Klay Thompson. Debacles such as this often send supporters home frustrated over why they paid good money to see that when they could have stayed at home.

Victor Oladipo’s return was upstaged by a team who will likely pick at the top of the lottery in late June. In his 18 minutes, his speed was still there, and he could create separation easily. He made 2/5 jump shots and missed some makeable layups under the cup. He finished 3/9 from the field.

The hope traffickers might cling to the fact that only 30% of the season has passed and that picking up lost ground is achievable. Perhaps. But a few more nights like their last two is a fail-safe course on having guys mentally check out.

 

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For more on the Heat’s struggles, check out the latest episode of Five on the Floor.

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What’s most concerning is that this season is starting to feel similar to the Heat’s 2020/2021 campaign. Through 25 games that year, Miami’s record was 11-14. The same as what it is now.

The Heatles’ window, if it isn’t shut already, can’t afford to waste the precious time Butler is still a top player. Part of the reason he is still in that condition is because he’s played fewer chunks of the season each year since he arrived. Miami doesn’t have enough firepower to have continued success without him. As my colleague Ethan Skolnick pointed out in early October, he’ll likely never play at least three-quarters of a year again.

Aside from a heaven-sent trade, there aren’t many options to improve because ownership’s checkbook is aching. The Heat have a couple of draft picks available to deal, but they shouldn’t give those up unless the team is guaranteed to be right back in the thick of it. It doesn’t seem likely because for Miami to take back a good player, who is probably not on their rookie deal, they’d have to attach either Lowry or Duncan Robinson with a first-rounder and Herro.

If things don’t improve with Butler, the Heat might be stuck until Lowry is off the books in 2024. JB will turn 35 that September.

The team has committed to Adebayo and Herro long-term. Keeping those FRPs should be the priority to help build around them with quality and cheap labor as they keep ascending. The Heat are going to have to get better with what they have. Don’t kill the messenger.

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Grizzlies Maul Heat’s Interior

When it looked like the Heat were starting to turn things around, they blew a golden opportunity to get back to .500.  Visiting the Grizzlies at the birthplace of rock and roll (Memphis), Miami continued to get outplayed in the second half by a team down three starters.

 

Heading into halftime for Miami, there were already bad omens.  They’d only scored eight points in the paint to the Grizzlies’ 36.  Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler combined for 3/11 made shots.  And the Heat’s zone was dull.  

 

Yet, the score read 58-51 in favor of Memphis at the intermission.  

 

In the last 24 minutes, Butler showed up, scoring 14 points on 71% efficiency from the floor.  Yet the rest of the outfit struggled to finish.  Memphis’ 2-3 zone neutered the Heat’s long-range shooting in the second half after giving up 45.8% in the first.

 

Tyler Herro went 0/5 from 3-point range in that stretch.  He also missed a wide-open triple at the top of the key as the game was tied at 68 points in the third quarter.  Yet, he was the only Heatle to play all of the final period.

 

Adebayo was unrecognizable. In his previous nine games before Monday’s loss, he was logging 25.3 points and 9.9 rebounds.  It’s disappointing to watch him revert to the player he was last year.  Unless he wants to get permanently labeled the “Ultimate Tease,” he should never have nights where he only takes 13 shots unless Miami is boat racing a rival.  

 

Bam’s confidence was likely shaken by his poor shooting (2/7) in the first half. He took one fewer try following the interlude and finished with a laid-back stat line of 15 points on 38% shooting from the field, with five rebounds and four dimes.

 

Kyle Lowry recorded 3/8 3-point field goals.  The problem is they were the only shots he took.  He may not have the speed he once had, but he can’t be so disinclined to score at the rim.  If he’s not taking shots inside the arc after wrapping around a screen against the drop or scoring at close range, he is doing the other team a favor.

 

The fourth quarter was a meltdown.  Miami kept giving up the baseline and possession of the ball, putting themselves on their backfoot defensively.  They also bricked six shots at the top of the key.  Haywood Highsmith made the only triple for the Heat in the fourth quarter as he was left open up top because of miscommunication.    

 

The Heat barely scored 16 points in the last 12 minutes.  

 

The biggest surprise of the evening was how apathetic Miami looked defensively.  Usually, the three backline players covering the paint and corners seal off the interior at the first sign of a strike.  Memphis’ Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks, Santi Aldama, Steven Adams and Tyus Jones feasted in the lane, making 25/32 baskets in the square.  Counting the contributions of the other Grizzlies, they ran up 64 points in the paint.  

 

Coach Spo gave his thoughts on the inside protection after the game.  He said, “They dominated us in the paint.  We typically do that well.  We were not able to contain dribble penetration, cuts, offensive rebounding, pick and rolls to the paint.  That just looks like a misprint, 64 points in the paint allowed. It felt like they could have had quite a few more…”

 

Herro spoke to reporters in the locker room.  He said the Grizzlies were too comfortable in their assault of the rim.  

 

The loss drops the Heat to 11-13 and places them a game behind the Toronto Raptors for eighth place in the east.

 

Miami’s next game is at home on Dec. 6 against the abysmal Detroit Pistons (6-19), but it’s the second night of a back-to-back.  Miami is known to play up or down, depending on the level of competition.  Which version of them takes the stage Tuesday?