Mateo’s Hoops Diary: The Miami Heat Remain Dangerous

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The Miami Heat are going to run it back, and it’s not such a bad thing in the short term. With the latest news that Kevin Durant is staying put in Brooklyn, the only white whale Miami remains interested in is Donovan Mitchell.  But should they give up on that hunt for now?  

 

The market will be inflated for a long time due to the Rudy Gobert trade that sent five First Round Picks to Utah with four players from Minnesota in exchange for the Frenchman.  Conventional wisdom tells me the Jazz wouldn’t be interested in letting Spida go unless they net a haul like they did trading their big-man. 

 

There’s a shortlist of players that can go nuclear like Mitchell on offense- Utah doesn’t need to buckle on its asking price in negotiations because their guy is signed for the next three seasons. They already pulled off one historic exchange this summer.  There isn’t a rush to manufacture a second so soon.

 

The best chance Miami has of getting Spida in uniform is if they sign him when he’s an unrestricted free agent or devise a way to trade for him in two years when he has one season left on his contract.   

 

The best swap Miami could offer would be Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and two FRPs.  It’s a steep price but likely not enough unless Lowry’s spot is switched for Bam Adebayo, but that should be a dealbreaker.  

 

Mitchell is a masterful scorer, but he isn’t Dwyane Wade.  The similarities Spida has exhibited attacking the basket are reminiscent of Flash, but committing a trove of assets for a small guard who is only effective on one side of the ball should be a hard pass.  

 

The Heat have a late-game scoring issue that needs to be remedied, but solutions will likely come internally.  In Game 7s loss at home, anyone not named Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were ineffective on offense.  Boston was keying in Miami’s All-Stars throughout the game, and by the end of the night, their legs were dead.

 

When watching a team go down as the Heat did in the conference finals, it’s natural for fans or even team employees to want to feel the immediate gratification of improving the specific weakness.   

 

 It’s feasible the late-game scoring drags are fixed with a healthy Tyler Herro growing into the role of closer or Kyle Lowry having a bounce-back season as the main ball handler. Or even Victor Oladipo recapturing his former ability to get a bucket at will- fingers crossed.  One of Herro, Lowry, or Oladipo will have to be the third option alongside Adebayo and Butler in the Playoffs.

 

The Heat’s uncertainty at power forward is the team’s primary concern because the Butler era’s window for competing for a title is still open, but there is no telling for how long. He turns 33 on Sept. 14, but he is one of the legitimate difference makers in the NBA.  Miami shouldn’t waste its time on unrealistic options when other improvements are possible to keep Miami as lethal as last season.

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Former Heatle Jae Crowder, currently over in Phoenix, has one year left on his deal.  I doubt the Suns would want to let an effective 3-and-D wing like him walk as a free agent and get nothing back in return.  Perhaps Miami could explore bringing him back for the right price, and if not, next man up.  His tenure as part of the club was brief but integral in their 2020 Finals run. 

 

Sacramento’s Harrison Barnes is another complementary forward who would fit nicely in the Heat’s rotation.  The Kings are going all-in on the play-in tournament, but if the season goes sideways for them, maybe the Heat could make an enticing proposition for Barnes’ expiring contract before the trade deadline.  

 

 For now, Tucker’s absence will alter some of Miami’s defensive schemes. He won’t be around to guard the other team’s best perimeter player, be a weak side help defender on opposing drives or be a guy who can switch onto any opponent and bother them.  

 

When Tucker was a Heatle, Miami was good enough to contend. His efforts boxing out, rebounding, screening, defending, and spacing the floor made him the team’s leatherman multi-tool. Tucker would seldomly get beat defending the ball handler last season.  His instincts and force to stay in front of the rock let other Heat players stick to their matchup without helping.

 

Caleb Martin is a candidate for the Heat’s starting power forward slot.  He is a solid player, but if he can’t hold opponents in front of him, Miami’s defense could eventually suffer by repeatedly having to send help when Martin is caught in a mismatch.  Martin, who stands at 6’5, will likely guard a bigger or stronger player before a switch. To his credit, his defensive field goal percentage last year was 41.8% on 10.7 attempts by the opponent.

 

Yet, offensively, Martin at the four is practicable. His athleticism is a plus, and he is a comparable deep shooter to Tucker.  At the end of a cut, Martin has enough pop to attack from above on a dunk.  His willingness to go for the slam should grant him more trips to the free throw line in 2022/2023.  Playing next to defenders like Adebayo and Butler possibly will increase Martin’s transition opportunities where he can use his speed getting downhill to Miami’s advantage.  

 

Last season, Tucker logged 609 more minutes than Martin.  In that extra time, PJ hit 16 more triples than his former teammate, on a slightly higher rate (.2%) and volume (.1%).

 

Getting the starting nod should see an uptick in 3-point attempts for Martin and, if converted around a similar efficiency, will provide ample room for Miami’s cutters to attack the cup. 

 

If plugged in at the four, Martin’s role as a screener will be more important than ever to get his teammates and himself open.  It would utilize his explosiveness to run actions for him as the roll man looking to score after a screen.  

 

It was first reported on Five on the Floor, Miami was comfortable not signing a free agent four after Tucker’s departure because they view Martin as a better player than any on the market.  It’s possible the Heat are right, and there won’t be much drop-off in two-way potency in 2022/2023.

 

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: A New Era in the NBA

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The NBA is in the middle of a power shift.  The three most noteworthy players of the past generation are LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant.  While the three of them are still outstanding, the new faces of the league snuck in through the back door and will likely remain as the league’s premier ballers for close to a decade.  

 

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokić and Luka Dončić are the NBA’s next titans.  They may not win as many rings as James, Curry and Durant have combined, but that shouldn’t be the only criteria for evaluating their greatness.  Personal records factor in, and so do the moments that took your breath away watching them.

 

For Giannis, what earned my unyielding respect for his game was his 2021 postseason run.  In the Finals, he was the focal point of two highlight plays that will forever shine in championship lore.

 

First, it was the block on Deandre Ayton’s attempted lob.  The Greek Freak was assisting PJ Tucker with icing Devin Booker on a roll.  Booker noticed the attention and hoisted a pass to the 7-footer who stood in the restricted area.  Before Ayton could plunge it down the cylinder, Antetokounmpo was at his chest and rejected the ball towards Tucker.

 

That’s as close as you will get to seeing someone float like a butterfly and sting like a bee on the court.

 

The next play happened in Game 5.  Booker dribbled into a wall in the lane and when looking to pass out, was stripped by Jrue Holiday, who started the fastbreak.  Antetokounmpo was the first Buck to make it to the Phoenix’s paint.  Holiday then flung up a pass, and the Freak snatched it, and while taking a two-handed shove from Chris Paul to the gut, still slammed the rock through the cup.  

 

It was called a shooting foul but it should have got Paul tossed, even with 13.5 seconds left.  Pushing someone in the air is slimy.  When a player has taken flight, they are defenseless and should be avoided by the opposition unless making a play on the ball.  The only reason Giannis powered through Paul’s desperate cheap shot and landed on his feet is that he is a super freak plus close to a foot taller than his aggressor.

 

Antetokounmpo’s Jedi-like maneuver distracted the refs and most observers from calling what happened what it was.  A dirty play by Paul.

 

In the next game, the season finale, Antetokounmpo delivered his magnum opus by dropping 50 points for the title.  By the night’s end, he’d won all the major awards a player can earn in the league.  He was only 26 years old.  

 

Jokić, the reigning back-to-back MVP, is on his way to becoming a historic player if he isn’t already.  If his team gets around eight more wins than this past season’s win total while he produces comparable stats to his last two years, maybe the Joker becomes the fourth player in league history behind Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird to win three consecutive MVPs.  

 

Those are big ifs, but winning a pair in two seasons is a rare accomplishment. It’s only been done by 12 other guys.

 

The Joker’s near 7-foot frame neutralizes the effects of opposing double teams because he can precisely find an open man by passing over the top of defenders.  His post game is as polished as newly minted coins, and he can step away from the paint and torch his rivals from the outside.  

 

Jokić does it all on offense.  His 82 triple-doubles in the regular season and Playoffs will attest to it.  In 2021/2022, he elevated his game and logged a career-high in points and field goal percentage while playing without two starters (Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr).  In the absence of two of Denver’s top marksmen, Jokić operated in mostly clogged paints, and he was still untouchable.  

 

Few plays are as pleasing as his no-look passes or when he finds a teammate cutting backdoor or targets another man across court in the shooting pocket. The Joker’s strongest asset is his mind.  Ninety-nine times out of 100 that he steps on the floor, he’ll be the smartest dude in uniform.

 

Then there’s Luka.  A forward who can fill up the stat sheet like James, Bird and Rick Barry.  Who could forget how at 21 and 22 years old, Dončić was making the Kawhi Leonard and Paul George-led Clippers sweat bullets because they were unable to stay in front of him?  Or specifically, when he caught a sideline pass near midcourt, dribbled over to the left wing, and pulled up for a game-winning trifecta in Game 4 of Round 1 of the 2020 Playoffs?

 

Dončić is never the fastest man on the court, but it doesn’t stop him from getting anywhere he wants.  His strength and footwork allow him to create separation when he decides to cut inside or post up.  

 

Guarding Dončić is as enticing as picking your poison.  If he is defended in single coverage, he might casually drop a 40-piece.  If help is sent on each of his drives, he’ll cut up the scheme by finding a cutter on the baseline or a shooter outside.

 

Dončić entered the NBA workforce as an All-Star caliber player.  In four years, he ascended near the peak of his profession. 

 

If I had to start a team and the only three names in the hat were Antetokoumpo, Jokić  and Dončić, I could make the pick blindfolded and be elated at my prospects.  The league is theirs for years to come.  Just as Wilt Chamberlain passed the torch to Kareem, as Bird and Magic Johnson gave it up to Michael Jordan, the cycle repeats.  James, Curry and Durant will be replaced by Antetkounmpo, Jokić and Dončić.

Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Kevin Durant Undercut his Bosses

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The Brooklyn Nets are more dysfunctional than the Royal Family and are addicted to double-dipping in misery.

 

Kevin Durant summoned the trump card when he called for his coach and general manager to hit the chopping block.   If owner Joe Tsai turns on his own, KD will have a chance to sit with the other coach killers of the mess hall. Magic Johnson, Dwight Howard, Latrell Sprewell, Stephon Marbury, Carmelo Anthony, etc., please clear out a spot for the new head of the table.  

 

There’s also the option of keeping him.   I don’t think KD has the nerve to miss camp, yet letting him show up could result in an overwhelmingly uncomfortable situation to deal with.  Leaking this info to Shams Charania has emasculated Durant’s superiors, and his insolence could spread like a virus throughout the locker room.

 

But the more likely finale to this sad affair is that Tsai taps out of this deal and trades Durant for pennies on the dollar, crippling the team for years to come. Following the report of their meeting over in London, Tsai tweeted the front office and coaching staff have his full support, and they will do what’s in the best interest of the team.

 

Initially, I wrote the Nets were better off keeping KD.  The news has changed, and so has my opinion.  He is now more trouble than he’s worth.  The bridge wasn’t burned when he asked out, but it is now.  His plan, from an outsider’s perspective, appears to be that he’s going to break balls until he gets his way.   

 

The Celtics offered Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and a first-round draft pick for Durant’s services but were denied.  I find it unlikely that Boston will be as enthusiastic this time around to offer the same deal knowing how desperate the Nets must be.  Maybe Phoenix, Toronto and Miami are still in the mix too.

 

Durant should feel frustrated the team was pantsed in round one.  But before he calls out his bosses, it would be wiser to set Kyrie Irving straight for compromising the team’s season for fear of needles or wounding his pride.  It was Irving’s selfishness and pseudo-intellectualism that cost the team an opportunity for more favorable seeding.  It would have likely led to an easier opponent to start the Playoffs.  

 

KD didn’t even hold James Harden accountable.  Before Harden was shipped out, Durant never told his buddy to slim down.  Perhaps it would have soothed the stress on the Beard’s aching hamstrings.  

 

This underhanded move #7 pulled reeks of entitlement.  Where does he get the stones to orchestrate such a machiavellian tactic when he hasn’t lived up to his end of the deal?  After all, he did get a fat extension worth $198 million a year ago, and all he has to show for it is a sweep and complaints.  

 

The Slim Reaper is still a force of nature, but it doesn’t matter who it is. Giving any player in year-16 carte blanche is a dangerous gamble.  If he’s every bit as awful as LeGM over in Lakerland at building a team, the Nets might be forced to pack up their stuff and head back to New Jersey.

 

If Tsai hands over executive powers to Durant, the appointment of one of his sycophants as coach and general manager is likely his next threat.  Tsai should tell his disgruntled employee, thanks but no thanks, and start packing your bags.  Sean Marks was doing a fine job before Durant and Irving showed up. 

 

Steve Nash should have submitted his two-week notice the moment Irving said he didn’t need a coach, and Durant called it a “collaborative effort.”  For all of Nash’s faults, he never had the trust of his star players.  Neither did Kenny Atkinson before him, and he too got canned.  

 

Call it what you want.  Durant wants two human sacrifices to wash over his shortcomings.  The only thing that will absolve him of that is a self-led deep trip in the postseason or if he parachutes into another loaded squad and they save him.

 

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: It’s All on Zion Williamson

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The fate of the Pelicans rests on Zion Williamson’s plate. To protect themselves from their star player eating himself out of the league, NOLA will periodically weigh him to ensure he doesn’t exceed 295 pounds. Although, with the threshold being such a high number, they are giving Williamson a large amount of waist room.  

 

Yet, there’s no word on Williamson guaranteed money getting touched if he misses a certain amount of games. When I asked the Pelicans about it, they did not want to provide any other information about his contract, including how the 295-pound threshold was reached by both parties, how much Williamson is weighing now and what they’d prefer his measurements on the scale to be. 

 

However, #1 is committed to getting slimmer after missing an entire season (2021/2022) with a foot injury. He has employed the services of a new personal chef who works with other athletes. But it’s the least he could do after reportedly showing up last year weighing 330 pounds.

 

It’s news to me that a professional athlete couldn’t stay in shape when going through an injury to his extremities as he was surrounded by some of the best trainers and nutritionists in the world. 

 

Williamson and his camp should be elated that the only thing affecting his guaranteed money is something he can control. Given the explosive nature of his game, it’s reasonable to believe that lowering his density would alleviate some of the pressure on his joints, ligaments, bones and muscles when coming down. 

 

Williamson is legit. But he hasn’t done anything to deserve such a commitment from his team when he’s only played in 85 regular season games in three seasons. For the Pelicans to take the next step into contention after making their first Playoffs since 2018, Williamson will have to rewrite the narrative on his availability.

 

New Orleans valiantly challenged Phoenix through six games in round one before defeat. Despite a short trip to the postseason, the prospects of NOLA having a bright future were as clear as the Weddell Sea because of how much they pushed the Suns without Williamson on deck. 

 

Hypothetically, the series against the West’s top-seeded team would have transpired differently with #1 suited up. Perhaps New Orleans still gets taken out, but what is certain is the defensive strategy the Suns used would have been altered with Williamson on the floor because of the mismatches he creates. 

 

 Replacing Jackson Hayes for a healthy Williamson in the starting lineup would have given the Pelicans four players with the ability to create their own shot to open a game. If that many players can get a bucket on their own, it limits an opponent’s capacity to send help effectively. 

 

About 70% of Williamson’s field goal attempts come from within three feet of the hoop, and it’s usually a surprise when he fails to convert from close range. He is a danger to the rim and commands a double or trap near the paint with the ball in his hands in the halfcourt. That type of attention from the defense will make sure another Pelican will get open on the opposing baseline or perimeter. 

 

An effective tactic to deploy when Williamson returns this upcoming season is using him more as the roll man after a screen. In 2021, his PNR frequency was only 5.2%, scoring 1.4 points per game on those possessions. The screener always gets open if the man he roadblocked is trying to ice the ball handler. Williamson would have a short window to receive the ball and dash toward the cup. If his man is low defending the lane, he can attack the protection by taking a shot from up to 16 feet away or attempt to go through him to force the foul. 

 

Williamson not getting enough action in PNR is a coaching crime that falls on the shoulders of Stan Van Gundy and Alvin Gentry, aside from their inability to keep him in shape. 

 

Fortunately for the Pelicans, coach Willie Green managed to direct his squad into the postseason when the chances of it happening were slimmer than a straight razor to start the campaign. Such an accomplishment adds credibility to Green because snatching the eighth seed indicated the Pelicans were farther along in their development than expected. 

 

Adding Williamson to this group could make New Orleans one of the dark horse teams in the West. They already have two three-level scorers in Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, plus a shutdown perimeter defender in Herb Jones. Inserting a skywalker like Williamson around those guys is a luxury not many teams can say they have. 

 

But none of it will mean anything If NOLA’s first overall pick can’t get on the floor. The investment to build a compatible team around him is too large for the Pelicans to fail. 

Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Deandre Ayton is Worth Betting On

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Before it was too late, the Suns sobered up and matched Indiana’s offer sheet for Deandre Ayton.  Waiting an entire season after he was eligible for his rookie extension was a waste of time.  It only pissed him off, and now they can’t use him as trade bait to get Kevin Durant out of Brooklyn until Jan. 15, but Phoenix’s center can veto proposals this year. 

 

Ayton has improved every season of his career.  Considering his abilities as a finisher up to 16 feet away from the rim + his effectiveness guarding the interior, it’s still bewildering that Phoenix never appreciated his value until they were left with no choice.  Without him giving up touches, willingly sacrificing his body to get teammates open, and crashing the glass for extra possessions, the Suns would have never made the Finals in 2021.  

 

On offense, Ayton has turned into one of the league’s most efficient players, finishing each season in the top 20 in field goal percentage and the last two years in the top 20 in offensive rating.  

 

His 7-foot stature overwhelms defenders near the rim, making help necessary after the catch.  In the dunker spot, he can jump higher than his matchup and go back up for a close-range shot.

 

Attacking through pick ‘n’ roll is one of Phoenix’s choice strategies, using it on ¼ of their possessions. With Ayton as the roll man, he scores 5.4 points a night on 64% from the field.  Nonetheless, Ayton is underutilized as the scoring option in screen ‘n’ roll.  Unless the defense sends a weak side shot blocker or clogs the paint, #22’s size and soft touch present an advantage in a league that heavily relies on small-ball.

 

It’s important to note that Ayton’s activity as a screener buys teammates precious seconds being open while also giving him a small window to get the ball back.  In the regular season, he was fifth in screen assists averaged (5.4), with 11.6 points scored for the team with his help.   

 

It’s critical for big men to receive a steady diet of touches so all the work that goes towards defending the paint and getting teammates open doesn’t waver.  Twelve attempts a game for Ayton is not enough when he shoots 63.4% from the field, and the right way to play is inside out.  Not the opposite.  

 

For the Suns’ 2022 playoff run, they finished 10/13 games with more shots coming outside of the paint than in it.  That style of play can hinder big men, and it’s peculiar Phoenix didn’t counter with more of an inside game when Chris Paul couldn’t get to his mid-range shot in Round 2.  Ayton is a mismatch against most players who will defend him. If he bricks from close range, he can snag an offensive rebound unless stuck in poor positioning.  

 

 There are only five players in the NBA with a higher post-up frequency than Ayton (Robin Lopez, Joel Embiid, Jonas Valanciunas, Jusuf Nurkic, Kristaps Porzingis).  Phoenix’s center is second in that group in percentage of shots 0-3 feet from the basket (33.3) but first in made field goal efficiency in that zone (79.3).  When a player scores that well around the cup, it’s surprising if he misses next to the restricted area.  It might open up extra space on the perimeter if Ayton gets more looks with his back to the basket because of traps or doubles sent his way.  

 

The danger in focusing the attack from the outside is that it limits second chance opportunities. If a pivot is standing close to the rim while his team is heaving up an excessive amount of  3-pointers, most misses will be long rebounds and out of reach of big men.  

 

As the Suns’ second line of protection, Ayton was one of the most involved defenders in the league.  Despite missing 24 games in 2021/2022, he still put a hand in front of more attempts than 95% of the NBA with 659 contests. Opponents scored 44.3% of shots with Ayton in front of them.

 

His averages in blocks don’t jump off the stat sheet but his impact taking away lanes is a premium the Suns couldn’t afford to lose.  

 

At 24 years old, Ayton is not a finished product.  Big men take longer to develop than guards and forwards, which makes his future promising.  Keeping him around a Hall of Fame playmaker like CP3 and a proven gunslinger in Devin Booker should help expedite the process as long as Ayton isn’t forgotten about on offense.

 

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Nets Better Off Keeping Kevin Durant

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To some, Kevin Durant looks like an NBA labor hero for asking to skip town with four years and $198 million remaining on his deal.  Others see him as the dude trying to take the easy way out. 

 

As for his trade request, it would defy logic for the Brooklyn Nets to move Durant.  He’s perhaps the league’s most lethal scorer because of his arsenal and the mismatches a 6’11 frame creates. Yet, for some inexplicable reason, the organization is bending over backward, acquiescing to KD’s wishes and looking for a negotiating partner. 

 

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Durant doesn’t have any leverage.  Willingly putting him on the market is a dereliction of duty by the front office.  They have not realized that whatever could be sent back for him won’t be as impactful as the man who already wears the uniform.  Taking on assets for the future is risky as well.  There is no guarantee the players picked will hit.  

 

Keeping Durant ensures the team is always in the mix, competing or at least the headlines.  How many opportunities will any franchise get to have a guy like KD signed long-term?  He’s a made man who needs to be convinced the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.  

 

 Offensively, the Slim Reaper has no weaknesses and is one of the rare players in the NBA who would fit well next to any playstyle.  When a man as gifted as he has already committed to a team like that, the plan should be trying to fix whatever the differences between the two camps are.     

 

The team has Kyrie Irving riding shotgun for at least one more year.  The Nets should have asked Durant the moment he gave notice why he can’t make it work for $198 million?  Why can’t he commit to the team as they did to him while he spent an entire year recovering from an Achilles tear?  They believed enough in him to devote themselves for four years when no one knew what version of the Easy Money Sniper was coming back.  But here we are. The ink on Durant’s extension hasn’t dried, and his interests are elsewhere. 

 

Helping the team win 1/3 playoff rounds he’s participated in and only playing in 106 games as a Net in three seasons shouldn’t buy him the cache to make such an asinine favor.    

 

Ben Simmons still has not made his debut for Brooklyn.  His size, versatility, and explosive lateral quickness make him one of the NBA’s premier defenders.  He can switch on opponents in zone or man coverage, which will fix some of the Nets’ weak spots while also benefiting the offense by adding transition opportunities.  

 

There are few athletes in the NBA like Simmons.  In fact, Durant hasn’t played with a specimen like him since he was Russell Westbrook’s teammate in Oklahoma City from 2008-2016.  Simmons is a threat whenever he puts his head down and attacks the basket.  His role as a playmaker while sharing the floor with Irving would leave #11 in single coverage while playing off-ball.  Kyrie wouldn’t have to work as hard getting open to avoid traps and doubles.  

 

Running pick ‘n’ roll with Simmons as the screener for Durant or Irving could be a nightmare for opponents to guard.  The man setting the pick always gets open after the player he pinned shakes loose.  If Simmons gets the ball back on the roll, he can attack if the lane is clear, or if he catches a pair of help defenders, he could pass out to an open teammate on the baseline or perimeter.  In this play, the Nets could use Ben at center surrounded by a few sharpshooters like Joe Harris, Irving, and Durant to spread out defenders.

 

This team has never gotten close to maximizing its full potential.  Injuries were a factor but Irving selfishly avoiding taking the COVID vaccine negatively affected how the team performed as well.  Perhaps if he were available for more than 29 regular season games, the Nets would have been a higher seed than seventh and likely seen a different opponent in round one.  

 

Going forward, per Executive Order 62, courtesy of New York City mayor Eric Adams’ signature on March 24, Irving’s vaccination status won’t prevent him from contributing next season as it did in 2021/2022.

 

Management shouldn’t give in to Durant’s desires.  It’s perfectly feasible that Brooklyn’s star threesome can make things interesting next season.   Not giving Durant, Irving, and Simmons the chance to take the floor together would be a colossal failure.

 

If the Nets capitulate, it will prove they are an unserious organization.  

 

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Dallas Can’t Lose Jalen Brunson

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The Dallas Mavericks can’t let Luka Dončić’s top gun, Jalen Brunson, walk in free agency.  He was a fundamental cog in the team’s success- the most they’ve had in over a decade.  The outfit finally broke through in the 2022 postseason, winning a pair of rounds and distinguishing themselves as a group to be respected.  If Mark Cuban’s team wishes to build on what they have, he will likely need to overpay Brunson.

 

Dallas’ coveted free agent is a shifty combo guard approaching his apex.  He earned some stripes torching the Utah Jazz in the first round.  In that span, he averaged 27.8 points on over 48% shooting while spacing the floor and blowing past perimeter defenders for strong drives to the rim that often attracted help.  

 

In the open court, challengers weren’t fast enough to stay above his hip.  When opponents would go under a teammates screen, Brunson would bury triples on either wing.  Getting iced on pick ‘n’ roll, he still eluded two defenders by attacking the shot blocker for a finish at the cup.  

 

Brunson’s importance to the rotation cannot be understated. Dallas’ most used five-man lineup in the playoffs consisted of Reggie Bullock, Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith, Brunson and Dončić, logging 142 minutes in 15 games.  That same group was also the most utilized in the regular season, totaling 367 minutes in 40 games.   

 

Losing the team’s secondary playmaker and scorer would be too devastating a blow to recover from immediately.  Dončić would have more responsibilities as the primary ball handler and could be at risk of having dead legs in April from the added workload. 

 

Brunson, as the decision-maker with Dončić on the court, lets #77 get free in single coverage moving around the perimeter. It also allows Dončić to conserve energy because he’s not catching the same schemes as he does with the ball after crossing halfcourt.

 

Chemistry built through continuity is vital for a team.  A group must learn how to win together, but they also need to master overcoming the sting of defeat as a unit.  The on-court trust the Mavericks have developed over time paid dividends in the squad’s first season under Jason Kidd as head coach. Eight players returned from the previous campaign, but the team changed its guarding philosophy, and the group finished the year as the seventh-rated defense through 82 games and ninth-best in the playoffs. In 2020/2021, Dallas was 21st in the category for the regular season and 10th in the first round with Rick Carlisle as their instructor.   

 

The Mavericks were one of the three last teams standing. They are likely a few modifications away from being good enough to win a title.  Perhaps their offense is more potent next season with Tim Hardaway Jr. reintegrated into the lineup to space the floor for cuts by Brunson and Dončić.  Maybe they will orchestrate an essential trade for an effective role player by the February trade deadline.  But it won’t mean anything if they don’t show Brunson the money.

 

The season may have been one small step for Dončić, but it was a giant leap for the Mavs.

 

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Miami Heat 2022 Draft Board, with Historical Comparisons

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With Thursday’s NBA Draft finally here, I’ve put together a list of 25 players for my Miami Heat “Big Board”.  With help from Brady Hawk and Greg Sylvander sharing information about who Miami has worked out, I included those players in addition to prospects I felt were fits for the Heat’s system. The Heat are among many teams who may choose to move out of the late 1st round, so I included prospects who would be good fits in the 2nd round or even signed as undrafted free agents. To help Heat fans catch up, I’ve made a comparison to a historical Heat player they may be more familiar with!

 

EJ Liddell OSU 2021-22 Season Highlights | 19.4 PPG 7.9 RBG 49.0 FG%

  • EJ Liddell (6’6” F Ohio State) – Played as an undersized post for much of his time at Ohio State. Terrific switchable defender on the ball and protects the rim. In comparison to the other defensive-minded 4’s on this list, he brings the best complimentary offensive game right away. That being said, it can still use some polish with ball handling and passing skills.  Likely taken ahead of Miami’s 27th pick based on most mock drafts.  

Historic Heat Comp:  more athletic PJ Tucker

 

Jaden Hardy G League Ignite 2021-22 Season Highlights | 17.7 PPG 4.6 RPG 3.7 BLK

  • Jaden Hardy (6’4” G Ignite) – Provides a skill set that Miami lacks on its roster. Hardy has a deep bag of ball handling moves and can create a shot on his own. He seems to project immediately as a volume scorer off the bench with the potential to grow into a much more lethal scorer with more complimentary skills. Many rumors of him sliding could put him in range of Miami’s 27th pick.  

Historic Heat Comp: Dion Waiters

 

Blake Wesley 2021-22 Notre Dame Season Highlights | 14.4 PPG 2.4 APG 40.4 FG%

  • Blake Wesley (6’3” G Notre Dame) – The highest ranked player on most big boards that worked out for Miami. Wesley is an elusive ball handler and score-first player but still needs consistency in his shot and finishing. Near 7’ wingspan and athleticism provides a huge defensive upside. 

Historic Heat Comp: Kevin Edwards

 

“Serbian Sensation” Nikola Jovic 2021-22 Mega Mozzart Season Highlights | 11.7 PPG 42.8 FG% 35.6 3P%

  • Nikola Jovic (6’10” F Serbia) – With many defensive minded 4’s on this list, Jovic brings guard skills as nearly a 7 footer. Still a project that will need development on both ends, but his skillset is the mold for modern stretch 4’s. Defensively is a long way from capable of defending at even an average level in the NBA.  

Historic Heat Comp: younger Rashard Lewis

 

Naismith & SEC DPOY Walker Kessler 2021-22 Auburn Season Highlights | 11.4 PPG 4.6 BLK

  • Walker Kessler (7’0” C Auburn) – Athletic big and elite shot blocker. Needs to get stronger to defend NBA bigs. Good screener and finisher, only a roller at this point but has shown flashes of becoming a pick and pop big. 

Historic Heat Comp: Hassan Whiteside without the baggage

 

Jake Laravia Wake Forest 2021-22 Season Highlights | 14.6 PPG 55.9 FG% 38.4 3P%

  • Jake LaRavia (6’7” F Wake Forest) – Creative passer and good spot-up shooter. Doesn’t provide much off the bounce, but moves well without the ball. While he lacks elite athleticism, competes on defense and can defend multiple positions if he adds NBA strength. Fits what Miami likes at the 4, so likely why Miami worked him out. 

Historic Heat Comp: Shane Battier

 

Andrew Nembhard 2021-22 Gonzaga Season Highlights | 11.8 PPG 5.8 APG 45.2 FG%

  • Andrew Nembhard (6’3” G Gonzaga) – Coming into the draft at 22 years old, seems close to an NBA ready backup PG. High IQ creator and very physical guard on both ends. Three-level potential, but shot could use polishing. 

Historic Heat Comp: Beno Udrih

 

Caleb Houstan || Freshman Highlights ||

  • Caleb Houstan (6’8” F Michigan) – Another fit in the mold of what Miami wants in a complimentary piece next to Jimmy and Bam in the front court. Obviously the Juwan Howard connection at Michigan provides great insight into his projection in Miami. Great catch and shoot threat, high IQ passer, but limited off the bounce. Not the best athlete but should survive defensively. 

Historic Heat Comp: Markieff Morris

 

Christian Koloko | Arizona | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Christian Koloko (6’11” C Arizona) – Huge potential as shot blocker and finisher, but if you’re Miami, can he fit next to Bam without a jumper? He’s still very raw and would require added strength and development. In theory, he’s an intriguing prospect but not sure the fit is there for the Heat.  

Historic Heat Comp: Jarvis Varnado

 

National Champion Christian Braun 2021-22 Kansas Season Highlights | 14.1 PPG 6.5 RPG 49.5 FG%

  • Christian Braun (6’6” G Kansas) – Pesky, high-energy defender and superb athlete who thrives in the open floor. Needs to add NBA strength and consistent outside shot to stick in the league. Worked out for Miami and fits the mold of wings who the Heat have developed over recent years. 

Historic Heat Comp: Josh Richardson

 

Justin Lewis 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Justin Lewis (6’6” F Marquette) – Strong, long (7’2” wingspan), switchable defender. Worked out for Miami and would seem to be an ideal fit in their defensive system. Still needs polish offensively to compliment his defensive strengths. 

Historic Heat Comp: James Johnson without guard skills

 

Josh Minnott | Memphis | 2021-2022 Season Highlights

  • Josh Minott (6’8” F Memphis) – Elite athlete with high-flying bounce. Switchable defender with elite upside, but must add NBA strength to play small-ball 5. Offense is a huge project to develop with no real shooting, passing, or dribbling skills. Worked out for Miami and would address the lacking athleticism on the roster. 

Historic Heat Comp: Mark Strickland

 

Dereon Seabron | NC State | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Dereon Seabron (6’7” G NC State) – Athletic guard who specializes in getting downhill (80% of FGA at the rim). Poor shooter at this point so would require development in that area. Defensive-upside with his length. Miami worked him out and will fill the need for rim pressure on the perimeter. 

Historic Heat Comp: Qyntel Woods

 

Jabari Walker 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Jabari Walker (6’9” F Colorado) – Switchable defender who has high defensive upside. Not quite athletic enough to play the 3, not strong/big enough to survive at the 4. His offensive game needs polish to stick in the league long term. Miami worked him out and fits the mold they’ve used at the 4. 

Historic Heat Comp: more athletic Samaki Walker

 

Keon Ellis | Alabama | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Keon Ellis (6’6” G Alabama) – Creates havoc as an on-ball defender with this athleticism and length (6’9” wingspan). Worked out for Miami and would be ideal playing the top of their 2-2-1 press. Offensive upside is there, but needs polish. 

Historic Heat Comp: James Ennis

 

John Butler | Florida State | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • John Butler (7’0” F Florida State) – While certainly a development project, Butler is a 7 footer who can defend multiple positions and is a knockdown shooter (39%) from outside. Could develop into a pick and pop big, but needs to add strength (only 175 lbs.) to survive in the NBA. 

Historic Heat Comp: taller Okaro White

 

Moussa Diabate | Michigan | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Moussa Diabate (6’10” F Michigan) – Switchable defender with length (7’2” wingspan). Effective rebounder. Useful as a pick & roll big, but has limited offensive skill outside of that. Worked out for Miami and played for Juwan Howard at Michigan. 

Historic Heat Comp: Willie Reed

 

Jaylin Williams | Arkansas | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Jaylin Williams (6’9” F Arkansas) – Another defensive-minded 4, but lacks athleticism and shooting ability to fit the Heat’s mold. He is considered to be the best charge taker in the draft, so he already bought into the Heat Culture. Would need significant development on the offensive end to become an NBA rotation player. 

Historic Heat Comp: Grant Long

 

Julian Champagnie | St. John’s | 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Julian Champagnie (6’8” G/F St John’s) – Scorer who does most of his damage on the perimeter. Doesn’t have elite quickness, but can create shots off the dribble. Needs improvement off the catch and shoot mechanics likely would be tweaked. Has high defensive “two-way” upside and is already a very effective off-ball defender. Worked out for Miami. 

Historic Heat Comp: Rasual Butler

 

Jordan Hall: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report

  • Jordan Hall (6’7” G St Joseph’s) – Not a great athlete overall, but displays excellent passing abilities for his size. Will need to improve as a shooter and show ability to defend at NBA level. 

Historic Heat Comp: Shaun Livingston

 

2x Big East POY Collin Gillespie 2021-22 Season Highlights | 15.6 PPG 43.4 FG%

  • Collin Gillespie (6’3” G Villanova) – With Miami’s history of developing shooters, and Villanova’s history of putting guards into the league, this could be a great development match. Gillespie is a rare five-year senior who shot 42% from behind the arc who brings a mature control of running an offense. He plays with a high motor, but likely will struggle to defend NBA guard. 

Historic Heat Comp: Damon Jones

 

Jamaree Bouyea: 2022 NBA Draft Mini Scouting Report

  • Jamaree Bouyea (6’2” G San Francisco) – Likely an undrafted prospect, Bouyea could draw attention as an all-around point guard with great creation ability. His 6’7” wingspan and abilities away from the ball could be developed into a capable defender. 

Historic Heat Comp: Norris Cole

 

Jared Rhoden: 2022 NBA Draft Mini Scouting Report

  • Jared Rhoden (6’6” G Seton Hall) – Lacks elite athleticism, but was a volume scorer for Seton Hall. Could develop into an off the bench bucket getter with solid defense.

Historic Heat Comp: Kasib Powell

 

Trevion Williams 2021-22 Season Highlights

  • Trevion Williams (6’8” F Purdue) – Lacks in the defensive skills that are typically identified with a Heat forward, but projects as a pick and roll big with strong passing skills out of the short roll. Will need to improve his outside shot and find a way to survive defensively as a slower, undersized big. 

Historic Heat Comp: Yante Maten

 

Quenton Jackson Drosp 28 PTS In Win At No. 25 Alabama!

  • Quenton Jackson (6’4” G Texas A&M) – Combo guard who can provide scoring punch. Good athlete with two-way potential. Entering draft at 23 years old. Worked out for Miami. 

Historic Heat Comp: Khalid Reeves

 

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Steph Curry, Once in a Lifetime

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People like Stephen Curry come around once in a lifetime.  Today no one in the NBA puts more pressure on a defense with their arsenal than #30.  He is a marksman that can never be replicated. And likely a demi-god among us mortals.

 

When Curry sat at the post-game podium, the first question he got was how it felt to win his first Finals MVP.  He told the reporter to forget about it because he and his teammates were now champions.  

 

Someone was going to inquire about the award media “experts” had made such a fuss about Curry not having.  As if it somehow subtracted from his eminence that it was missing from his oversized trophy cabinet when it’s just a prize for a series.  

 

His response told you everything you’d need to know about him as a teammate.  He could have reflected on his achievement, but that didn’t matter to him.  Winning his fourth meant something different than the rest.

 

No surprise there.  Curry is a compulsive winner who experienced two years of postseason withdrawals because of injuries to him and other members of his outfit.  He reminded reporters and everyone watching live how many days it had been since the Warriors were last sent home- a year and six days.

 

Yet, it was three seasons ago when Golden State last got a sniff of the Larry O’Brien Trophy.  Coming off five straight trips to the Finals is usually the last amount of juice the finest dynasties can squeeze out of a run.  The Warriors were stubborn enough to finish their late encore.

 

In the first half of the series, Golden State lost two of the first three and still needed to play a fourth match on the road.  In Game 4, Curry scored 43 points coming off screens, attacking in transition and slicing through the paint.  Three nights later in San Francisco, Andrew Wiggins stepped up, leading the Dubs in scoring to take a 3-2 lead, sending the series back to Boston.

 

The Celtics couldn’t climb out of their ditch because they kept dropping while defending the pick ‘n’ roll and were ineffective hunting Curry. When #30 turned the corner of screens, Boston gave up enough space outside while covering the drive to the basket. The Celtics also shot 37% from the field with Steph as their matchup on 80 attempts, per NBA Stats. He was a two-way star.  Much to Boston’s surprise and that of part-time observers who still ignorantly believe Curry is the same player defensively he was seven years ago. 

 

Additionally, the Celtics’ short bench eventually bit their tail.  They relied upon seven guys for heavy minutes in the series.  Their legs were dead.  

 

Through the Warriors’ run, Curry scored 602 playoff points, with 187 of those coming in the Finals.  It was the most he logged against the club’s four opponents and the highest output he’s had in the championship round, per basketball reference.  

 

All this jewelry Curry has racked up winning in his career has elevated his street cred to heights only men recognized on a first-name basis understand. I’m not here to say whether or not he is better than any of those guys.  But he’s one of them now.  If Curry were to wear all of that bling in broad daylight, the sunshine reflecting on his ice could blind a bystander if he’s not careful. 

 

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Warriors need more from Draymond Green

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The Warriors should have filled out a missing persons report for Draymond Green.  Maybe it would help remind him of Game 4 at Boston Friday night. 

 

Golden State started Wednesday evening’s affair on their backfoot.  Boston had a double-digit lead in seven minutes because the Warriors were overhelping on non-threatening shooters causing them to be late on closeouts, while also having to play 4-on-5 offensively on innumerable possessions and getting assaulted on the glass.

 

Tatum looked for Curry on the perimeter through forced switches so he could have the smaller man on an island.  Advancing to the hole, Curry would get caught at Tatum’s hip, making help on the cut necessary but exposing the baseline or perimeter.  

 

Climbing out of a 12-point deficit at halftime is no simple task no matter how great the personnel on the losing side is.  The Warriors came out of the break sharper and outscored the Celtics through 12 minutes, 33-25, attacking on the fast break, running pick ‘n’ roll and capitalizing on second chance points. 

 

In the halfcourt, Curry used a double drag screen from Looney and Wiggins on the perimeter to get Horford on a mismatch.  Al dropped unnecessarily as Curry turned the corner of the screen at the top of the key and splashed a deep tray. 

 

Defending the screen and roll in transition, Boston’s big-man, again, dropped into the paint while Curry stopped on a dime at the right elbow and hit nothing but nylon. Horford must have thought he was still defending Miami’s Kyle Lowry from the previous series.

 

 Golden State was down four going into the final stretch but Boston’s counter, ramping up the RPMs defensively, was too large an obstacle to overcome.  It only made it easier for the Celtics to defend while Green was on the perimeter because of all the space given to him.  The Warriors only scored 11 points in the fourth quarter on 33% shooting from the field and 11% from deep.

 

This series could look a lot differently if Green was living up the reputation of his name.  It’s hard to convince anyone a player is performing up to expectations when they have more turnovers than made field goals three games into a series.

 

One can only wonder what would have been the Warriors fate Sunday night if the referees called double technical fouls on Green and Jaylen Brown for their entanglement.  In the regular season, more has been made out of less.  Green already had one technical foul.  He was lucky the refs didn’t have quick whistles.

 

The NBA Communications department said Zach Zarba’s ref crew handled the situation correctly by just calling it a defensive foul on Green in Game 2.

 

Regardless, of what the league says, it could reasonably be argued the situation warranted double Ts.  Brown escalated matters by swiping Green’s legs off his side and then Green shoved his back and pulled himself up by grabbing Brown’s shorts before they exchanged unpleasantries.  

 

The series sits at 2-1 favoring the Celtics, but in order for the Warriors to have a chance on the road in Game 4 they’ll need more than what their starting power forward is giving them. Green’s defense in Game 3 was out of control. He fouled out in crunch time and his final statline read 2 points on 1/4 attempts, 3 assist and 4 rebounds.  Celtics players defended by #23 shot 6/16 from the field, yet he only contested four of those shots because of his reaching habit.  Playing like a free safety hasn’t worked well for one of the NBA’s best help defenders. 

 

On Wednesday, the Warriors gave up 52 paint points.  That’s on the group because the perimeter is the first area guarded.  A defense can only do so much when there’s a breakdown up top.  It’s difficult to expect a waning player like Green to cover so much ground.

 

On the other side, Green has trouble getting open in the post or paint.  More off and on-ball screens would help.  The man scarifying his body always has a short window to get the ball.  And hitting open shots would be a plus instead of leaving enough bricks on the court to start the construction of a new arena.

 

The Warriors have been in this position before going into a Game 4 in a hostile environment but that was seven years ago and the Warriors are now looking at a younger version of themselves.  Curry was once the golden goose of the league like Tatum is today.  Thompson was the ideal right hand man.  Brown’s current role.  Green was the swiss army knife complimenting the two but his edge has dulled.  Smart is that guy now.  And Kerr.  He led them to the promised land as a rookie head coach.  Ime Udoka is two wins away from doing the same thing for Boston.

 

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