Duncan Robinson has really struggled this first half of the first of the five seasons he is signed for with the Miami Heat.

He’s struggling to get some shots in, and we’re struggling to understand what’s really going on and how he went from one of the most lethal shooters in the NBA to a less than average shooter in this season so far.

40 games in for him (The Heat has played 43), we can’t talk about a short slump anymore. We have to talk about a bad season!

But, wait a minute. Is Duncan Robinson’s season that far away from what he’s done in the past?

His general stats don’t really show that. Or at least, not to the extent that Heat Twitter, and most of our analysts in Five Reasons think.

After only two full seasons in the NBA with the Miami Heat, his numbers per game, in average, have only dropped a little bit. If you look at it in four or five years, you may not even notice it.

Yes, numbers don’t say everything, and I agree: Duncan Robinson is missing shots he was making in the past, and maybe just a bunch of good games helped him bump his averages up, but here’s the simple math (in a general scale):

Only taking into consideration his two full seasons (2019-20 and 2020-21), Duncan Robinson this season is averaging just two minutes less than his first full year, and less than four minutes less than his second full year. Spoelstra has lost some of his confidence on Robinson, but he’s still getting plenty of playing time.

His three-point attempts per game are almost the same. 8.6 per game this year, versus 8.5 and 8.3 in the years before. He’s actually shooting more (just slightly), and he’s definitively making less shots.

So far this season, Robinson has 119 threes in 343 attempts, for a 34.7%, way under his 40.8% from last season, and the 44.6% he had a couple of seasons ago. A 10% drop in two years (more or less, since we’ve had three seasons played in a very short time).

If he continues on this same path, it means Duncan Robinson would finish the season within the NBA average (for this season at 34.9% so far), but way under his average when he

Like Nekias Duncan stated in his article The Curious Case Of Duncan Robinson’s Shooting, what has surprised us the most is that, “oddly enough, it’s the easier shots — catch-and-shoot jumpers — the ones that aren’t falling”. The entire league, in average, is having a down year for multiple reasons.

It’s not just a Duncan Robinson issue, but it’s the issue we see every time we watch the Heat. Or not every time. Be fair with Duncan Robinson. He’s just being average, and you’re not used to it.  “Average” Duncan Robinson should be better than the rest. That’s why he got paid…

With Bam Adebayo coming back tonight, as ESPN reported a couple of days ago, we’ll see if Duncan gets a necessary spark. Teams have adjusted to Bam’s dribble handoff to Robinson in the past, and with Robinson having less gravity to get Adebayo open on a pick and roll,  I am not sure we should expect Duncan Robinson’s numbers to go up just because of this particular play, but hopefully I am wrong.

If you’re tired of my optimism based in cold numbers, you better go ahead and listen to what Ethan Skolnick, Greg Sylvander and Brady Hawk had to say about Adebayo’s return to the team (whenever it finally happens this week):

And also, check Brady Hawk’s Five Takeaways of the Loss against the Sixers here.

The Portland Trail Blazers are running out of time to turn their season around.  After 42% of the year, they’ve underachieved and sit at eight games below .500. Some of their record can be blamed on the injury report but most of it should be attributed to the poor product the Blazers have put on the court. 

Damian Lillard was diagnosed with an abdominal tendinopathy on Dec. 1, causing him to miss the next five games. In that span, Portland went 1-4.  Their only victory came against Detroit, one of two teams with single digit wins.  Yet, Lillard returned 11 days later in the loss at home against the Timberwolves, and it might have been too soon.  

Since his return, (8 games) Lillard appears to need more assistance getting open with the help of a screen. Most instances where he zips past a defender have come when he’s running down hill in transition with fewer moments of #0 beating his man in single coverage in the halfcourt.  Whenever Lillard initiates the offense in the halfcourt, Portland’s go-to option as of late is to have a teammate screen for him on either wing so he can pull up for a triple.  It’s becoming as predictable as Julius Randle of the Knicks cutting left. 

Another play Portland runs significantly is attack through the pick ‘n’ roll ball handler.  It’s used for 1/5 of their offense but the team isn’t scoring efficiently this way.  Portland is only converting 41.5% of their shots in this category while taking the eighth most attempts in the league.  This could potentially improve with the return of CJ McCollum.   He’s another dependable option to score as the pnr ball handler because of his swift ability to breakaway or stop on a dime.

This season under first-year coach Chauncey Billups, Portland has cut down on its isolation frequency.  In 2021, the Blazers led the NBA in iso usage (10.2%) and now only eight other teams run more one-on-one action.  Portland may have the ball stick less now (7.6), but their effectiveness attacking this way has decreased. While McCollum is out, most of the iso plays are going to Lillard, who has his teammates clear out for a possible lane or for space to take a jumper.  On more occasions, Dame Time is settling for a deep tray instead of blowing past his man.     

Defensively, the outfit is the worst team guarding in the NBA.  The Blazers are tied with New Orleans for last in the league in opponent 3-point percentage while also giving up over 48 points a night in their interior.  Much of this is due to poor communication, like not alerting a teammate of an incoming screen, a Blazer failing to inform another he’s switching, or not receiving help when stuck in a mismatch. 

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As an illustration, on Dec. 21 at New Orleans,Portland put the Pelicans in the bonus less than five minutes into the game.  Some of the penalties came defending a couple fastbreak layups by NOLA’s Josh Hart and Braondon Ingram and another was Jusuf Nurkić losing control on a loose ball.

Then on Dec. 31, Avery Bradley of the Lakers set a screen on Nassir Little on the right wing  anticipating LeBron James’ dive in transition.  James wrapped around the screen and Lillard was left on an island with him on the baseline.  In the moment of truth, Norman Powell did not help from the opposite baseline and instead stayed on Russell Westbrook in the corner. James then powered past Lillard to the basket for two plus the foul.

Four minutes into the same game, James stripped Powell’s right baseline cut and got out in transition after Westbrook flung the loose ball back to start the break.  Here Tony Snell of the Blazers can be seen jogging from the left corner until he reaches his team’s 3-point line.  

On Jan. 3, without Lillard (load management) at home, Portland outlasted the Atlanta Hawks, but not without the opposing squad dropping 131 points.  It was the fourth time this season their matchup scored at least 120 points at the Moda Center, but the only instance in which the Blazers won.  

Portland’s room for error is shrinking, but they are not out of the playoff hunt yet. Lillard and McCollum as recently as the bubble games showed that they could lead their team to wins at the end in the regular season to secure a final spot.  During that eight game stretch the Blazers finished 6-2.  This time around, performing late season heroics might be very challenging.  Every team is at risk of losing a key because of COVID-19 outbreak.  Missing the right players could derail a season.

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Kyrie Irving won.  It probably won’t be long either before the Nets change course on their decision not to bring him back.  

Inexplicably, the Brooklyn Nets swallowed their words in the middle of a league-wide covid outbreak. And they shouldn’t have.  It was only on Oct. 29 when team owner Joe Tsai said it wasn’t tenable for his star guard to compete on his own time. Eight weeks later, Irving’s lack of social awareness is the reason people miss his game and why the Nets have had to trod on through 30 without him.  

Given this impulsive change of direction, Irving is only available for 23 of Brooklyn’s 27 remaining away games while he stays unvaccinated.  Hopefully the Nets don’t confuse him with a groupie because they’ll only see him on the road.  But as of now, they are first in the east, and away from Barclays, the team has the best road record in the NBA at 11-3.  

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New York’s laws aren’t changing.  While Irving remains obtuse, his part-time gig of Cirque du Soleil basketball still leaves the Nets at a disadvantage come playoff time.  They’ll be without him in their building while he sits at home, twiddling his thumbs watching the game like the rest of us.  

Sure, Irving finally coming back will help them win more of the games they were supposed to.  But it doesn’t mean anything if he can’t be there in the trenches with his group when they need him the most.

And they do need Irving back badly, despite being “#1.”  James Harden has lost two steps because of age and weight.  Kevin Durant, as brilliant as his arsenal is, will get burnt out if he keeps averaging 37 minutes a night.  

In the previous postseason, Harden was limited in round 2 against the bucks because of a grade 2 hamstring strain.  In Game 4 of the same series, Irving sprained his ankle and couldn’t continue after Giannis Antetokounmpo undercut him.  Durant was left on an island with the team’s role players and nearly got them there if not for his size 30 sneakers.  

This star threesome could become the greatest trio that never was.  Irving, Durant’s and Harden have played only 13 games, a third of the way past year two together.  Sources tell me Vegas will start taking wagers soon on the over/under for the three linchpins playing 82 games collectively over the next 18 months. To their “credit,” the Nets record in their minuscule sample size was 10-3.  

Once Irving gets back on the floor, one can only hope that his fix of competing will overpower his reluctance to follow the advice of medical professionals.   

The necessity of a trade is sometimes the fault of a player not living up to his end of the contract or a front offices’ miserable ability at building a winner.  Assembling a quality squad through the draft takes years.  It only makes it more painful for those competing or the devoted supporters who spend their money and time on the product when the people in charge have no plan.

It seemed like there was an idea for the Sacramento Kings after the 2017 draft.  They got a gold claim in De’Aaron Fox, the most dynamic guard in the class who had just fallen in their laps.  But in the following years, Sac took two guys who play the same position as Fox and had another miscalculation picking Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic. 

The Kings have the longest active playoff drought in the NBA (15), and their best player, the Fox, is already on his second deal.  It’s the first year of a five-year contract worth  $163 million, the largest in the organization’s history.  Unfortunately, the Kings make roster upgrades at a snail’s pace.  The Fox might be on his third contract before this outfit breaks its abysmal streak of failure.

But they shouldn’t wait that long.  With three players who should have their opportunity to claim the QB spot, Sacramento got very lucky that Tyrese Haliburton is versatile enough to be a secondary initiator and tall enough to play shooting guard.  The problem is the team is too small if it plays the three of them at once, and the Kings reluctantly do so. 

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Usually, rebuilding teams in the lottery want their young guys competing with each other to build chemistry.  Three of the last four first-round picks for Sacramento (Fox, Haliburton, Davion Mitchell) have shared the floor in eight different lineups this season.  None of those rotations that Sacramento uses with its three point guards averages more than 8.2 minutes per game.  

Mitchell might have been the best player available, but if the Kings needed a guard that badly, perhaps they should have taken Chris Duarte, who is four inches taller and a more effective marksman.  He fell to Indiana at 13.  

On Nov. 21, the Kings fired coach Luke Walton adding another name to the graveyard of instructors who tried to turn the team around.  I’m not here to say Walton was anything special as a coach, but the blame for the team’s record cannot be entirely placed on him.  Perhaps he’d still have a job if former general manager Vlade Divac knew a generational talent when he saw one.  

Picking Mitchell in the previous draft was President Monte McNair’s choice.  Despite the poor start to the 2021/2022 campaign, the Kings have the ammo to make significant modifications to the lineup.  It starts with putting Fox on the trade market.  

 It was reported in July (before the draft) that Sacramento was one of the teams interested in Philadelphia’s disgruntled All-Star Ben Simmons.  The Kings had an opportunity to get him, but they didn’t want to include Fox or Haliburton in a deal.  And that’s why “scared money don’t make no money,” as Jeezy said.

Simmons was one of the finalists for the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2021.  The Kings are 28th this season in defensive rating, needing versatility and size in their frontcourt.  Simmons could have provided that and the threat of a ball-handler in exchange for Fox.  Philadelphia likely won’t be interested now in a swap with Sacramento after the emergence of Tyrese Maxey.

And that’s also why Grover Washington sang, “Good things come to those who wait, but not for those who wait too late.”  

More often than not players drafted in the late lottery don’t amount to as much as their top 10 counterparts. Over the past decade; there have been numerous examples to the contrary with guys like Devin Booker, Giannis Antetonkounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, and Bam Adebayo. They do get the benefit of less pressure to be great right away. The public will consider their development to take quite a bit longer than a player selected in the top 5. And most of this was true for the guys listed above. However, Tyler Herro wasn’t gifted that same leeway after 2 seasons.

Herro made a big splash in his first season that not many expected. Heat fans marveled at the timely shots he’d hit for a team that was spearheaded by the addition of Jimmy Butler. You saw why the Heat saw in him took him over guys like Grant Williams, Romeo Langford, and Sekou Doumbouya.

Then came the hiatus of the season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Herro took the sudden offseason as an opportunity to add his growing platter of hoop appetizers. Heat fans witnessed as he showed new tricks in his bag. Tricks that included better finishing, simple reads in the pick-and-roll, and crafty moves around the painted area. The organization could not have asked for more but he kept delivering with a solid playoff run.

Despite the way the media has covered the Heat since the FInals run, it was not something atypical for Herro. His playoff numbers were very similar to his regular season and lined up with those of his follow-up season. His 37 point performance vs the Celtics has clouded the view of NBA fans to the point of blind arrogance.

The Finals run caused everyone to expect even more the following season. The weight of expectations was unfair to someone who had already shown tons of improvement in between the hiatus, which was as long as an entire offseason. The crazy part is that he still improved his raw numbers despite a very obvious down year for him. He went through lingering injuries, no offseason, and trade rumors swirling throughout the year. The organization stuck with him and knew the reps he was getting would pay off in the future.

What we’re witnessing in the 2021-22 season is the reward for that patience. A player that fans were so quick to give up just 8 months ago. But even for someone like me who was buying the Herro stock everyone was selling, what I’m seeing is shocking even me. The way the game has slowed down for Tyler and the improvements to an already beautiful jumper is second to none. The freedom and joy he’s playing with are fueling a Miami bench to being one of the best in the league.

The most noticeable improvement I’ve seen to his scoring game is how deliberate he is at getting to his spots on the floor. Herro’s body language is saying “I’m getting to the elbow off this high pick and roll and you’re giving me an open 3 or I’m dribbling at my pace and getting to the mid-range.” He rarely looks rushed or out of control, always playing at his pace.

He’s still getting better with his finishing and learning the intricacies of the floater he added early in his career. Herro has already mastered using the backboard for tough finishes against bigger defenders. Finishing through contact is still not his strong suit but you see the promise there.

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There’s more you can point at from Herro this season but really the shotmaking has plainly been nearly elite-level. He’s getting to the level where it doesn’t matter how good the defense; that shots going in. There’s been countless of times his shots leave your mouth agape as if you were The Scream painting. Herro may not have the wingspan but his size for a 2-guard will allow him to get off shots on plenty of defenders. This is why the added height on his jumper has been so crucial for his jumper.

There are so many spots where he can get even better. He’s still learning how to use the leverage of defenses playing him so high and making faster reads on doubles and hard hedges. Herro’s already shown flashes of growth in these segments. It’s a matter of when not if he’ll smooth them out. The biggest thing that’ll truly get him into the consistent All-Star caliber player will be when he masters the art of the free-throw line.

The newly added strength has helped Tyler not get pushed off his spots so much. He has also shown more willingness and ability to fight through contact at the rim. The last step is to consistently get to the line for free points, especially as an 80+ percent shooter. He’s currently at only 2.7 FTA a game. If he were to jump that to even just around 4 FTA, it would be huge for him.

Those little things are truly the last few steps to him becoming THAT guy. As someone who’s been high on Herro, even I find it hard to believe how far he’s come. At 22-4-5 on 46/39/86 splits in his third season, the best has yet to come. The Devin Booker/CJ McCollum/Zach Lavine comparisons have been there but I’m done trying to compare him like that. We should enjoy watching Tyler grow into another late lottery gem uncovered by the Heat.

A player who’s gotten better every season so far isn’t stopping now. He’s setting records for Heat bench players left and right while being amongst the league leaders in 4th quarter scoring. No one expected what we’re witnessing to happen when he was drafted 13th in 2019. Think about what he’ll look like next season and the season after that. Heat fans should feel blessed that they were able to draft someone of his caliber so late in the lottery.

Tyler will start in the not so far off future and it might unlock even more of his game. But for now, he’s their weapon of mid-range destruction off the bench. After all, patience is how we got to this point. There will be bumps along the way, shooting slumps, and random hiccups. Don’t let any of those things deter your confidence in the young shooting guard; he certainly won’t. Everyone can start thinking about the next leap, but take some time to enjoy the current one.

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Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882