Three weeks into the Heat season, it has become impossible to ignore the noise surrounding Duncan Robinson’s shooting slump.  The topic has become more divisive to Heat Twitter – with some ready to promote Tyler Herro to the starting lineup and others patiently waiting for the slump to vanish.  I decided to look back at NBA history and attempt to identify parallels between Duncan and other three point specialists.  I also analyzed the shot profile from the past three seasons to see how Duncan’s role has shifted on this new Heat roster and how that could be playing into his early struggles.  Finally, I’ll jump into some adjustments that we could see to get Duncan back on track.

HISTORICAL PRECEDENT

When looking historically for a player comparison for Duncan Robinson, it’s almost unprecedented to find a player used so strongly as a three-point specialist.  Obviously the game has changed, and while the NBA added the three-point line in 1979, the volume of shots changed drastically in the past decade.  

After 11 games, 89.1% of Duncan’s field goal attempts come from behind the arc.  While that is clearly still a small sample size, his past seasons of 85.5% in 2020-2021, and a league-high 88.2% in 2019-2020 show the role he is designated within our offense.  This isn’t happening by accident, it’s by design.

It’s hard to blame Erik Spoelstra for this usage.  Duncan holds a top 20 career percentage (41.5%) in NBA history.  He shot 42.7% on over 1200 attempts during the past two seasons.  That is why the coaches, his teammates, and opponents continue to respect his outside shot despite early struggles.

Duncan is among 49 players in NBA history with above a 40% career three-point percentage.  In that group, only 18 players have attempted more three-point field goals than two-point field goals – and as expected, most of these came over the past decade.  Duncan leads that group with an astounding 6.5 three-point attempts to every two-point attempt.  The only other players above a 2:1 ratio?  Steve Novak 3.5 to 1, and Davis Bertans 3.4 to 1.  

While attempts tell one story, the most important thing is making those shots.  As we’ve seen many times, if Duncan isn’t hitting threes, what does he contribute offensively?  Currently this season, 85% of Duncan’s points came from behind the arc – which is actually third in the league behind Danny Green (90.5%) and Wayne Ellington (87.1%).  For reference, in the past two seasons, three pointers were responsible for 79.6% of Duncan’s points in 2020-2021 and 82.4% of his points in 2019-2020.  Not surprising, he was 2nd to only Danny Green (80.3%) last season, and edged out Wayne Ellington (82.0%) in 2019-2020.  

Over the Erik Spoelstra era, Duncan is not the first Heat player with a heavy ratio of threes.  Looking at single-season data, the Heat have had players such as Shane Battier, Mike Miller, James Jones, Wayne Ellington, Jae Crowder, Bill Walker, Luke Babbitt, and Yakhouba Diawara with better than 3:1 ratios.  (Bonus points if you anticipated Bill Walker, Luke Babbitt, or Yakhouba Diawara to be mentioned in this article)

With that precedent, clearly Spoelstra is comfortable with Duncan’s utilization.  And while I don’t think anyone would argue adding counters to his game is a bad thing, the Heat are comfortable showcasing the current version of Duncan Robinson.  But with the early season struggles, the elephant in the room is getting harder to ignore – what is wrong with Duncan this season?

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SHIFTING SHOT PROFILE

After diving down the rabbit hole of Second Spectrum data, I’ve tried to point out a few areas that stand out after 11 games.  I will make it clear that 11 games is a way too small sample size when compared to two full seasons, so remember that we are still early in the season!

With Jimmy, Bam, and the addition of Kyle Lowry, and the growth of Tyler Herro, there is no surprise that Duncan’s opportunities for catch and shoot threes are plentiful.  With those types of attempts up nearly one per game, his effectiveness has plummeted to a putrid 30.0% on those shots.  For comparison, he averaged 43% on those shots over the past two seasons.  He’s shooting significantly higher (50.0%) on one-dribble threes but on nearly six less attempts per game.  I’ll touch on the dribble later, but I can’t possibly buy into the idea that Duncan is better off the dribble.  In most cases, it will lead to a more contested shot because it allows the defender(s) to recover.  

The attention drawn by those scorers also allows Duncan to find wide open shots despite the attention that all defenses throw at him.  Unfortunately for the Heat, open shots haven’t translated into made baskets.  Duncan is shooting 31.0% on 3.8 open three-point attempts (closest defender 4-6 feet away), compared to 40.7% last season and 47.7% the previous season on 3.4 attempts.  

It’s not surprising that contested shots would have a lower field goal percentage, but the bar is high for a shooter like Duncan Robinson.  Over the past two seasons, Duncan has shot 41% (19-20) and 37% (20-21) on tightly contested three pointers where the defender is 2-4 feet away.  This season, Duncan is shooting 29.7% on those attempts.  Quite simply, Duncan has to be better in order to be considered one of the best shooters in the league.  

Finally, one of the intangible powers that is connected to Duncan is the concept of “gravity”.  With such an elite shooter, he draws the attention of defenses towards him, and thus allows his teammates to operate in more space away from him.  Part of that gravity is due to the elite shot making ability he has from outside the arc, but it is also due to the constant movement that Duncan brings to the Heat offense.  In past year’s, defending Duncan meant the challenge of constantly chasing him off pin downs, floppy actions, and DHOs.  This season however, the distance he’s traveling per game is down nearly 12%.  

What does that mean?  Being more of a standstill shooter is still a difficult proposition for defenders – staying even a step closer to Duncan makes help on drives more difficult, but it is certainly easier than chasing him around screens.  While not making too much of body language, Duncan cannot allow performance to impact effort.  His constant movement fatigues his defender and will continue to draw the attention of all five defenders on the floor.  Until teams completely disregard Duncan as a non-threat, he can impact defenses with his movement.

ADJUSTMENTS

So what is the counter?  We had belief after this offseason that Duncan was adding to his game and anticipated something like a shot fake into a 1-2 dribble pull-up.  With defenders closing hard to take away the arc, it seemed like a natural progression to allow Duncan to contribute inside the arc.  After 11 games, Duncan has attempted eleven shots inside the lane and one mid-range jump shot.  The one mid-range jump shot made me check multiple websites to verify because it seems almost unfathomable.  

Over the past two seasons, he only attempted 35 of these mid-range shots and was largely ineffective.  I trust that this was part of Duncan’s offseason training because he said it himself on The Long Shot podcast.  How is it possible that after 11 games, he has just one attempt in the mid-range?  

Could it be not so much what type of shot he is getting, or where those shots are coming from, but when those shots are happening?  Looking at last season’s data, Duncan’s three-point field goal percentage drops the deeper you get into the shot clock.  Why?

When Duncan is getting opportunities very early in the shot clock (18 seconds or earlier), you’d expect to see him running to the wing or the corner and getting hit ahead passes in transition.  Last season, Duncan shot 43.9% on just over 1 attempt per game.  The frequency of these attempts are understandably low, but it more importantly the threat forces the defense to defend sideline-to-sideline and baseline-to-baseline and opens up the middle of the floor for others to attack. That’s the base layer for any transition attack.

Much as been argued about the use of DHO but when utilized early in the offense as part of their secondary break, it allows an opportunity for Duncan to get loose (41.7% on attempts between :15-:18 on the shot clock) but also still provides enough time for the ball to switch sides of the floor and get to the next best action.  While some point that the Heat are “trying to get Duncan going” with the early DHO, it’s just part of layering actions together and much less about force feeding Duncan Robinson.

As the shot clock gets under seven seconds, it becomes problematic for Duncan to touch the ball.  His three point shooting percentage is sub-38% in these situations over the past season and even worse this year.  If he is not getting a catch and shoot opportunity, the odds of a successful possession drop significantly.  For all Duncan is great at, he’s not a great creator with the dribble or the pass.  It often leads to a poor shot, turnover, or shot clock violation.  

CONCLUSION

As mentioned before, Duncan’s three point ratio is almost unmatched in league history.  He’s a unique and very talented shooter, but I believe diversification needs to occur to balance nights when the outside shot isn’t falling.  Instead of a 6:1 ratio, Duncan needs to trend more towards the ratios of historical comparisons like Danny Green (1.8), Kyle Korver (1.6), Joe Harris (1.3), and JJ Redick (1.1).  I’d be much more comfortable with a ratio near 3:1 than his current pace.  

Although he’s surprisingly fairly effective finishing inside the restricted area, the focus should be on adding mid-range counters.  The problem is that growth occurs in the offseason not during the season.  So I wouldn’t expect to see drastic changes from Duncan’s shot profile anytime soon.  

The Heat should continue to utilize him early in their secondary break, and then allow the offense to flow into the next best action.  This doesn’t mean that Duncan needs to be part of every initial action, but he cannot be effective if utilized as a standstill shooter.  

That being said, I’m also a strong believer that the 1200+ shot sample size from two full seasons holds more value than less than 100 shots in the first 11 games.  While it appears to have become a mental struggle, he won’t be the first or last shooter to enter a slump, and so the most important signal for Heat fans is that they continue to create good shots opportunities for him to take and turn around this slow start.  

Fitting into a new situation can take time and patience for anyone. Whether it’s been arriving at a new school or a new job, we’ve all experienced the awkward orientation period. Trying to find where you belong while not stepping on the toes of those who are already there. For Kyle Lowry and the Miami Heat, that adjustment period seemingly took less than one day. It’s felt like Lowry has been in Miami for an entire decade when he’s only logged 6 games with the franchise.

It may be a surprise to some people just how quickly the two parties have clicked. In reality, it shouldn’t come as much of a shock when you delve into the details of this marriage.

Kyle Lowry has always been a player you can plug into whichever system you throw him in. He’s like the one size fits all sweatpants you can rock any day of the week. He can work both on-ball and off-the-ball at an elite level while making sure the team doesn’t skip a beat. Even if he doesn’t have the crazy assist numbers like Chris Paul, he’s still on that same level of a floor general.

It’s not just that Kyle lends himself to the rest of the team, but that they play off of him just as well. For Jimmy Butler it allows him to be more of a scoring threat.  He’s freed him of the burden of being the team’s only downhill creator. The same goes for Bam Adebayo, whose assist numbers have gone down as his scoring and rebounding go up. Lowry is helping Adebayo in ways Chris Paul did for so many big men, including DeAndre Ayton last season. Growing his confidence while getting him easy looks, whether that be in pick and rolls or early transition.

Tyler Herro has already raved about how much Lowry has helped his game on and off the court. Gushing about the way he gets everyone into the right spots to succeed. The Lowry-Herro 2-man lineups have a 118.2 ORTG 92.6 DRTG for a +25.6 Net. That’s some Small Sample Size Theater, but the chemistry is there. It’s reminiscent of the way he worked with Fred Van Vleet and his early days with Goran Dragic in Houston.

On the defense, you see how seamless he’s filled that point of attack hole that’s plagued the team the past few years. The way he talks and communicates (along with PJ Tucker) while taking charges has fit like a glove. This is much to the delight of Erik Spoelstra, who has always coached good defenses and preached those principles his entire tenure.

These are the reasons why Miami tried so hard to trade for Kyle Lowry last season and was their top priority this past summer. The Heat knew he would help their chances and also help improve their young players for the future. Miami knew what Kyle Lowry was all about. He’s the kind of player that has always caught the eye of the Miami Heat front office. A player that plays every possession like it’s his last and doesn’t back down from anything. Someone willing to take a charge in a damn All-Star Game is always going to catch Pat Riley’s attention.

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Kyle Lowry said after Miami’s recent win against Dallas that “Spo has kinda let me go out there and kinda just do things, and they’ve adjusted to me. They’ve been very adaptable to us.” The team has handed the keys to their new PG to take the car wherever at the speed he wants. Coach Spoelstra and the staff have utilized his tendency to put the pace and get out in transition. They know what Lowry is good at and want to utilize every aspect of his game. The Heat trust Kyle the same way they trusted Jimmy Butler when he first arrived. You don’t get that kind of faith from the organization that easily. You have to be a special kind of player and that’s what Lowry and Butler are.

They’re both cut from the same cloth and it’s no surprise the two are such close friends. Butler is even the Godfather to Lowry’s daughter. They’re no strangers to each other and both know about thriving in stable organizations that know what they’re doing. They know what it means to have an organization that holds everyone accountable and asks for the best out of each of their guys on a nightly basis. Lowry helped lay the foundation in Toronto for what is now an exemplary organization that teams look to emulate.

There are plenty of jokes on Twitter, but Kyle Lowry didn’t need the Miami Heat to “set him in the right direction.” He’s been one of the best players at his position the past decade-plus. What he’s doing in Miami is rocking with a team that’s on the same wavelength as him. They both want to win a title and share similar mindsets about what it will take to get there. Both parties see eye-to-eye on so many levels.

Kyle Lowry knows what Miami is all about and vice versa. They are going to do whatever it takes to get to their ultimate goal. No one outside the team expected this type of start. Most fans will tell you that it might take a month or so to hit their stride. What everyone didn’t count on was that Kyle has always been a “Miami Heat” player, in a sense, just without the jersey.

The Heat has allowed Lowry to be who he’s always been. They won’t dare change what made him who he is today. They’ve rolled the ball out on the floor and theoretically told him to “be Kyle to the highest degree.”

The thing about trying to fit in is that if you’re trying too hard, you’re never succeeding. The awkward part where you’re not sure of where you should be can throw you off so easily. The Heat made sure that Lowry never had to try and that the team will follow not only Jimmy’s lead but his as well. It’s easy to fit in when the moment you arrive you’re greeted with people like you.

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The world’s smallest violin plays a tune for the cries of James Harden.  The Beard had a long, fruitful run manipulating the rules on offense, and now with regulation changes implemented for the 2021/2022 season, #13 hasn’t been a regular at the free-throw line. 

The Nets are only 2-3, but Harden is only taking three free throw attempts per game in this small sample size.  It’s a sharp decline from his career average of 8.7 per night, or more alarmingly, his mean of over 10 charity shots a game the last nine years.

Returning from his sabbatical, a rotund Harden, still a Rocket, got to the line 16 times against the Trailblazers Blazers in the first game of the 2020/2021 season.  Traded to Brooklyn weeks later, in his Nets debut, Harden took 15 free throws. 

The NBA’s rule changes are slowing Harden down more than the extra body armor he carries on the court.  The Bearded One’s signature con would deceive officials when he would drive into a defender and hook them with his off-arm and pull up, creating contact.  The refs not biting on this slippery trick caused Harden to voice his displeasure to the press when asked about it on Monday after the loss to Charlotte. 

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“I just ask every official.  If they see a foul, call a foul,” said Harden.  “Sometimes I feel like, a couple minutes in a game, it’s already predetermined (the noncall).  I already have that stigma of getting foul calls.”

Before Harden arrived for his post-game press conference, coach Steve Nash tried to paint his star guard as a victim of unfair officiating. Which is rich because Nash whined to reporters last season about Trae Young using unorthodox maneuvers to create contact (abruptly getting in the way of a defender).

The reality of the rule changes is that this was the NBA’s adjustment to a dominant player. Historically, some of the very best the hardwood has seen have influenced change in the game.

In 1956, while Wilt Chamberlain was at Kansas, Tex Winter saw him dunk one of his free throws in a scrimmage.  Winter, the chairman of the Coaches Rules Recommendations Committee at the time, immediately complained about it at an NCAA convention in 1956 because “something’s got to be done.”  Winters revealed this in an interview with coach Nick Hauselman of BBALLBREAKDOWN in 2011.

While Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was in college, dunking was outlawed (1967) to try to limit his effectiveness.   Those fools at the NCAA are the reason the patented skyhook was so polished and devastating, and their ploy did not work.  UCLA won the next two titles, completing a three-peat. 

As recently as 20 years ago, when Shaquill O’Neal was perhaps the most dominant presence on earth, he forced the NBA to evolve and legal zone defense was born.  

For now, the Beard’s game has suffered as his scoring, facilitating and rebounding stats are down from last season.  What Harden has done in his career has pressured the NBA to weaken the advantage of the offensive player.   In the future, he shouldn’t complain.  This is what respect looks like.

We’ve reached the end of the Miami Heat preseason and South Florida sports fans couldn’t be happier. Miami has now played an entire regular season, postseason, and almost a whole preseason before the one-year anniversary of their Finals defeat. While preseason records are not indicative of what’s to come; there are some things you can take from these games. General playing style, rotations, and placement of roles are a few that tend to bleed into the regular season. I’ll be taking a look at a few of these examples and others that especially caught my eye throughout most of the games. Some of these will definitely excite Heat fans, but there are a couple of worrisome spots as well.

1: Tyler Herro’s Added Strength Helping His Jumper

One of the big stories coming into Miami Heat Media Day was the newly chiseled Tyler Herro. The former Kentucky Guard is out to prove a point this season. While you see many stories of guys gaining muscle during the offseason, nothing much comes from it once the games get started. “Muscle Watch” only goes as far as the player implements it into their actual play. For Herro, he’s already shown how beneficial the new weight has been for his play. One thing that caught my attention was how his lower body strength has improved an already pretty jump shot. You can see how much easier it is for Tyler to shoot coming off of screens now.

Last season (black jersey, mirrored above) he needed to dip lower in order to get more power. Now (white jersey) you can see how much easier it is for him to immediately go into the pull-up; no longer needing to exert as much strength.

The newly added lower body and core strength also help Herro get a higher apex on his jump shot. One of the shortcomings many had for Tyler out of college was his wingspan. It has been said that he can negate that with the height he possesses.

Now with the added height, he’s added it will be even easier for him to shoot over defenders. He’s making the game easier for himself and has led to great results so far. Hopefully, it continues into the regular season.

2: Selective Pace

During the opening of Media Day, Coach Spoelstra talked about the pace that Kyle Lowry would bring to Miami. Heat fans and media employees scoffed at the idea due to how slow the Heat have played since 2014. However, pace doesn’t always mean playing like the 2007 Golden State Warriors. Pace can also mean getting into sets quicker, attacking in semi-transition, or constant movement at a consistent rate.

Kyle Lowry has already shown how much he’s going to help in all of these phases. The various ways he can attack in transition and semi-transition are akin to what I remember Dwyane Wade and LeBron James did. Lowry is not the athlete that those two were, but the way he manipulates space and reads defenders is very similar. He has shown his mastery at reading the exact moment defenses start to relax in transition and exploiting it for easy baskets.

Lowry knows some of the players, including himself, on the team won’t be able to run throughout a regular season. That’s why he’s been selective in the opportunities so far. Veterans play to the team’s strengths and fans shouldn’t worry about running out of gas late in the season. It’s a nice change of pace to have a team getting into sets faster instead of waiting until 15 seconds on the shot clock.

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3: Backup Point Guard – Tyler Herro or Gabe Vincent?

Once again going back to Media Day, Gabe Vincent talked about the expectation of having more ball-handling duties. After the preseason it still feels like those backup point guard duties might be leaning the way of  Tyler Herro. While Gabe Vincent has shown he can be semi-capable in this role, Herro has shown so much improvement with his on-ball reps that it’s hard to argue with him not having the ball in his hands more.

Miami may have had a plan to give Gabe more responsibility, it looks like Herro’s newfound ways of attacking pick-and-rolls might have won him the defacto backup PG role. I imagine Lowry or Butler will be on the floor 98 percent of the time and the need for a definitive backup won’t be much of an issue. Hopefully, Vincent can focus on getting his jumper going to help the assist numbers of Herro early on.

4: The Markieff Morris Question

Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat have had a great track record of helping journeymen stretch 4s find their footing in the league. Players like Luke Babbitt, Okaro White, James Johnson, and Jae Crowder have had great success within the Heat system. However, Markieff Morris seems to be struggling to find what type of role he’ll be in early on. It is early but the returns are not strong so far.

Morris appears to be a player who’s best suited as a small-ball 5 on a team that already has a solid backup 5 in Dewayne Dedmon. It doesn’t hurt to have lineup versatility, but Morris isn’t good enough as a small 5 to warrant much hoopla. Markieff’s role will hopefully be figured out, or it seems much more likely Miami will be looking to add a different 4. Someone in the vein of Thaddeus Young to help during the buyout market or trade deadline most likely.

5: Bam Adebayo’s Score-First Mentality

We all heard the comments that Bam Adebayo made that he’ll look to be a shooter this season. The early returns after a full preseason lineup with those remarks. Adebayo averaged 18.7 FGA 7.4 FTA per 36 minutes in the dress rehearsals. Compare that to his 20-21 averages of 12.5 FGA and 5.5 FTA, it’s quite an uptick. Not only are his eyes focused on the rim at all times, but his teammates are constantly looking for him. Kyle Lowry has especially been a big part of Adebayo’s uptick in shots. It’s astonishing watching Lowry look for his big man on quick seals and transition opportunities. He’s using the athletic weapon on the Heat roster to his fullest powers.

Lowry is finally unleashing the big advantages that have been there for years for Miami. I expect Lowry to help Adebayo in the same way Chris Paul did DeAndre Ayton this past season. There will be some warts to deal with as well. Bam has had trouble finishing off self-created opportunities in the preseason. He has also health with his share of turnovers when his initial move is cut off. These sorts of issues should get ironed out with more reps and it will be fun when they do. It will be his first season truly being utilized in this role, so you can’t blame him for needing constant reps. He’s in for a big year and the Heat will go as far as he takes them.

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