Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Heat’s Late Game Rally Not Enough In Madison Square Garden

The playoffs are supposed to start in April, but the New York Knicks and Miami Heat didn’t get the message. In the season’s first encounter, both squads, only two games apart in the standings before the match, broke the other’s schemes.

The Knicks went to man-to-man coverage and switched defenders against screens initially. Facing pick and roll, Knicks center Jericho Sims dropped, allowing Bam Adebayo breathing room at the nail after the dive. But the hosts’ active hands and doubling Jimmy Butler after the catch in the lane forced five turnovers too.

New York ran its pick-and-pop action with RJ Barrett and Julius Randle. The Knicks’ big man swished two jumpers from the corners and splashed one more catch-and-release shot from the left wing. Randle was also mismatch-hunting and commanding the extra help of another defender when Kyle Lowry or Tyler Herro switched on him. This breakdown allowed him to hit Quentin Grimes, the open man in the right corner, for a triple.

New York started by making its first six out of eight shots. Barrett attacked Herro off the dribble every chance he could, converting seven out of nine baskets defended by #14 through four quarters. Additionally, he made a wide-open bucket in the lane after Randle was doubled in the post, plus blowing by Caleb Martin and Lowry for three field goals.

Midway through the first quarter, New York got on a three-on-two fastbreak. It looked like an easy basket as Herro and Martin swarmed in on Barrett, and he dished it to Randle, who had no one in front of him at the cup. But Martin hit an extra gear and came away with a rejection from the blindside of the left-handed Randle. Butler also had two takeaways, and Gabe Vincent had one in the first half.

On the other side, Adebayo showed why he was recognized as a second-time All-Star, awarded minutes before the game. On the baseline, #13 faced up Isaiah Hartenstein, maneuvered into the paint, hesitated, then canned a well-contested fade away. Next, he faked a handoff to Herro at the top of the key and zoomed by Hartenstein for a destructive slam over Evan Fournier. For his penultimate field goal of the period, the Knicks (somehow) lost sight of him in transition as the rock pinballed back from the wing to Adebayo, running his lane for an unbothered jam.

The closing of the first half was a disaster for the visitors. Miami suffered a seven-point gashing in the last minute, only countering with an Adebayo midrange pullup over Sims.

In the third quarter, Miami lived up to its name, raining fire from deep. Herro hit a catch-and-shoot triple and two more, assisted by Adebayo’s screens versus the on-ball defender, while seeing Sims in drop coverage at the top. Lowry, Strus and Martin each hit a 3-pointer in the third quarter, raising Miami’s output in that department to six out of 12.

But Miami’s defense wasn’t as sharp in the second half as it had been through most of the first, and they rarely got to the line. In the last 24 minutes, Grimes and Barrett combined for 12 out of 16 field goals. Since the Heat couldn’t stop the ball handlers at the perimeter, the 2-3 zone was ineffective, and the interior was exposed and clobbered for 56 points.

With over seven minutes left, Miami was down 11 points but managed to cut the deficit to two in crunch time on an Adebayo baseline jump shot over Hartenstein. As the clock ticked down, the Heat over-helped on Barrett’s drive, leaving Grimes open in the corner for a 3-pointer. Herro and Barrett then proceeded to trade baskets. Subsequently, Adebayo intercepted a sideline inbound and was fouled hard on the break by Randle. At the charity stripe, he buried both. Miami was down a point.

When Herro and Butler blitzed Barrett on the left wing, he passed the rock to Grimes, cutting down the middle. It’s a pity the refs didn’t see him travel after the catch, but Grimes then dished to Hartenstein cutting on the baseline as Strus, the low man, came forward to contest.

With a chance to tie, Herro missed from the right wing. The Heat stole New York’s recovery but lost it right back off a bad pass by Strus. Hartenstein started the break, ending with a Randle dunk to take a five-point lead.

Strus made up for his error by splashing a SLOB triple up top. Afterward, New York turned it over on the inbound because Randle slipped, and Miami got the ball. At first, it was called a foul on Adebayo, but coach Erik Spoelstra challenged the call, getting it overturned.

The Heat had 2.1 seconds left for a shot. The Knicks defended well, denying an open pass to everyone but Herro, who curled to the left corner. He took an off-balance jumper over Randle and Barrett. He missed.

At the postgame presser, Spo said his team’s fight to get back into the match was part of its DNA as they’ve been in the most close games of 30 teams. “There were some key swing moments, particularly in the beginning of the fourth quarter where they were able to take control a little bit and get it to almost 10 points. We had to dig our way back…”

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Bam Adebayo Deserves to be an All-Star

Ten of the 24 All-Star slots have been chosen. Fans, media and players each had a say in who got picked. It’s now on the league’s coaches to fill out the remaining spots. Snubs are expected, as they are every year, but some are sure to ruffle feathers.

The All-Star Game is an undignified popularity contest. I’d love to say I couldn’t care less who participates, but enough selections, or lack thereof, could make the difference on a potential hall of fame ballot.

For example, champion Jrue Holiday of the Milwaukee Bucks is one of the league’s best two-way guards. He’s been a pro for 14 years and was an All-Star once, along with four defensive team selections. Holiday’s squads have won seven playoff series. If he retired today, I fear voters five years from now wouldn’t show his career the respect it deserves because he wasn’t a regular at the game when he should have been. Never mind his pro averages of 16 points with six assists and four rebounds per game.

The Miami Heat’s Bam Adebayo is another stud who has gone unrecognized. He earned an All-Star bid in year three, the season Miami finished two wins shy of its fourth championship. In that campaign, he logged 15.9 points on 55.7% efficiency, along with 10.2 rebounds and 5.1 dimes a night. As a third-year player, 71.5% of his field goals were assisted.

Adebayo is much more polished offensively and a prolific scorer in the box. When he recognizes drop coverage with the ball, he takes a couple of dribbles and pulls up in the lane. After a pick, he’s waiting for the rock back to inflict severe damage on the rim. Through 46 games this season, Adebayo leads the NBA in points scored in the interior with 728.

A few years ago, Bam depended on teammates to help him score. This year, sixty percent of his field goals are assisted. He is now capable of creating his own shot.

He’s a legit 21 and 10 guy, plus a top-five defender in the league. In my book, those dudes are perennial All-Stars. In Adebayo’s case, he may not get in, and he’s been the best player on the team this year. He didn’t even get enough votes to show up on the first 10 names of the fans’ returns. That’s an indictment on Miami supporters for not voting enough for their guy. Leaving it up to the coaches is a coin flip.

The coaches who pick, of course, know more than the people covering the game for their careers or those watching for pleasure. But instructors watch film on the opponents the team is preparing for. Beat writers miss a lot of the action, too, when covering their team as a few games are going on.

The reason for making it or not might come down to the coaches watching enough film on Adebayo. Hopefully, in his case, they have because the tape is evidence of a big man who defends smaller forwards and guards at the perimeter. It shows a center that is the brain and backbone of Miami’s 2-3 zone.

The Heat’s best defenders next to Adebayo are Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo and Caleb Martin. Each of them has missed more time than #13. Butler has logged 36 of Miami’s 51 games. Oladipo has participated in 25 and Martin in 41. Adebayo has missed five games this year, but he’s been the most crucial reason the Heat have the best paint protection of 30 teams. His ability to stop the ball outside and bother a shot inside blows up opposing offenses.

Following Miami’s win at home over Boston on Jan.24, uncharacteristically, coach Erik Spoelstra said Adebayo should have been an All-Star last year and that he deserved it this season. “He missed five weeks. So what? He was playing at an All-Star level. There’s been other guys who have missed a month or five weeks and still got in…”

With the 14 remaining reserve spots set to be selected on Feb. 2, Adebayo has one more opportunity to show he belongs in the star-studded festivities. That will come on tour in Cleveland on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Bam Adebayo disrespect only helps Miami

Every time I open up my Twitter app it’s filled with casuals comparing him to whoever scored more points than him that night.

 

I’ve had enough.

 

As if that’s not aggravating enough, it appears that ‘points per game’ Twitter is a microcosm of how (too) many NBA fans actually think. It’s the sole reason why Adebayo can’t be seen inside the top 10 for frontcourt All-Star votes. Kyle (Pink Sweater) Kuzma and Paolo (18-29) Banchero have more votes than him for crying out loud.

 

This sickness doesn’t stop with points either. The same argument can be applied to any other stat.

 

Take the Defensive Player of the Year race for example. Bam is the anchor for a top 5 defense and is the most versatile defender in the league. He makes guarding 1-5 look effortless at times.

 

Apparently, that doesn’t matter. Outside of Heat fans and media, you won’t hear anyone make the case for Bam. Those finalists are awarded to the players who average the most blocks per game.

 

(While we’re on the topic: ‘Points per game’ Twitter or “*insert stat* per game’ Twitter is reserved for only the most casual of casual NBA fans. It is the holy grail of casual. If you ever want to tell someone you don’t watch NBA games without telling them, just start your argument with per-game averages.)

 

End of rant.

 

Whichever way you slice it, Bam is often overlooked. And as frustrating as it is, it’s exactly what the Miami Heat need.

 

Don’t get me wrong. I absolutely want Bam to be celebrated for his elite on-court play. As a matter of fact, his lack of recognition and accolades is the inspiration behind this piece.

 

But among all of the disrespect, a new Bam is unlocked. It’s a Bam with a chip on his shoulder. And it’s dangerous for the rest of the league. The disrespect fuels him. It ignites a fire on the court that can’t be contained.

 

That’s exactly what happened in Tuesday’s win over the Celtics. With Miami’s offense continuing to struggle from three (and every spot on the court for that matter), Bam took things into his own hands.

 

He dropped 30 points and 14 rebounds on 12-22 shooting (21 points and 12 rebounds in the second half) and willed Miami to a win without Jimmy Butler.

 

Possession after possession, he carried Miami’s offense while anchoring their defense. Elite.

 

In his post-game press conference, he was asked if making an All-Star statement on national television was on his mind: “No, not really. It was the rivalry. They booted us from the Eastern Conference Finals last year”, Adebayo said.

 

While some of that may be true, I’m not buying it as the sole reason for his aggressiveness.

 

To get a real glimpse of Bam’s mentality on Tuesday, we need to shift our focus to seconds after the final buzzer sounded. With sweat dripping off his face, TNT’s Jared Greenberg closed the post-game interview by saying “hopefully we’ll see you in Salt Lake in just about a month.”

 

Bam responded by saying, “I should be in Salt Lake”. A direct contrast to his mentality and comments when asked by the media.

 

He wasn’t done.

 

Shortly after, he spoke to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald. Bam didn’t hold back:

 

“There are guys that shouldn’t even be on that list”, he stated.

 

“But it’s fan voting. That’s what it is and you got to live with that. I mean, right now I’m in a position where it’s based off the coaches in the East. Now that, I’m going to be [upset] about if they tell me somebody else has played better than me this year considering I’m leading the NBA in paint points and I’m one of the reasons why we’re winning. So for me, it’s just that fan voting is fan voting. I’ll let that be. But when it comes to coaches voting, that’s when I feel like I deserve to be in it.”

 

Go off, Bam! Call them out. This isn’t passive. This is cut-throat talk from a max player.

 

Regardless of how many times he plays it cool, Adebayo cares. He feels the disrespect. And when he feels disrespected, you get Tuesday night’s stat line.

 

That’s exactly what this team needs; an aggressive Bam.

 

Miami is 20-10 in games where he shoots at least 15 shots.

 

To all the casual fans, coaches, and players – continue to fade Bam all you want. It only makes the Miami Heat dangerously potent.

******

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Heat Leave Celtics Green With Envy

True to form, the Heatles found themselves in their 22nd game, decided by five points or fewer. Despite any shortcomings this outfit has had this season, supporters, the press and team personnel are almost always guaranteed to be biting nails or sitting at the edge of their seats witnessing a dub or tumble.

On Tuesday, for TNT’s primetime matchup of Celtics @ Heat, both squads were undermanned in this fourth encounter of the year. Boston won the first two on Oct. 21 in Miami and Nov. 30 at home. On Dec. 2, the Heat won in overtime on the road.

The first quarter moved along at a snail’s pace because of 16 fouls committed by both teams and 21 free throws taken. Almost five minutes into the game, Boston had the luxury of the bonus. Then, on one possession, the Celtics committed four penalties in 28 seconds. Not even disgraced house rep of New York’s third district George Santos perpetrated that many and so quickly.

Through 12 minutes, Max Strus’ sharp shooting carried his group offensively. He splashed a catch-and-release triple on each wing, then dribbled once after pump-faking Grant Williams out of bounds for a trifecta in the corner. Attacking the drop, he turned the corner of Bam Adebayo’s screen and got into the lane for a nine-foot jumper in front of Robert Williams, protecting the rim.

As the half continued, Bam Adebayo scored his first basket following his spike against Derrick White’s floater that sparked the fast break. Catching a feed from Gabe Vincent in the restricted area, #13 only had the 6-foot-1 Payton Pritchard in front. He converted an easy hook shot.

Aside from Strus’ early contributions and Adebayo’s second-quarter scoring, no one else was reliable. The Heat’s guards missed all 11 3-point attempts in the period. From the field, the hosts logged 32.7% efficiency and 33.3% from behind the arc while down eight points and getting gashed on an 11-0 run by Boston to close the quarter.

On the other side, in that stretch, Jayson Tatum mercilessly got into the lane, driving by and shooting over Tyler Herro for three baskets. At the top of the key, when Adebayo switched on to him, JT stopped on a dime for a step-back 3-pointer.

In the third quarter, Adebayo recorded five of his 12 field goals. He slashed into the paint for a driving hook, plus a layup, dunked once and hit a pair of pick-and-pop jumpers at the nail.

Victor Oladipo was the only other Heatle to make multiple buckets in this span. Picking up a miss from Tatum, Vic sped off on the break and hit a floater over Pritchard. Off a miss from Oladipo from deep, Lowry picked up the long rebound and hit him again for a shot from the corner. For the next one, Lowry turned past Vic’s screen on Tatum to attack Luke Kornet in drop coverage. The pick forced JT’s switch on Lowry, who found his man open on the left wing for a triple.

At the start of the fourth, the Heat was down nine, but it saved its best for last. Miami’s aggressive 2-3 zone held Boston to 13 points on 23.8% shooting by primarily making them operate from the outside.

Haywood Highsmith was the Heat’s difference maker off the bench. Coach Erik Spoelstra rolled with him, playing him all 12 minutes of the fourth. Caleb Martin was a nonfactor, having picked up five fouls in 11 minutes through three quarters.

When Adebayo dashed into the middle of the paint, he was met by three defenders. Highsmith intelligently saw the breakdown on the baseline, cut and finished under the hoop. Then, he hit a shot in each corner. On the first, he got open after the dribble handoff to Tyler Herro that Boston blitzed on. On his last, the Celtics ran a 1-2-2 zone. With R. Williams at the low post, he had too much ground to cover after Highsmith caught it 24 feet away from the cup.

In the final period, Adebayo logged nine points and eight rebounds. With the score tied at 95 with 23 seconds left, Adebayo caught the ball at the nail, faced up Pritchard, then raised for a jumper over him, plus G. Williams coming in as the help side shot blocker.

With Miami up two, Boston’s coach Joe Mazzulla didn’t call a timeout. Next, Tatum wasted 14 seconds before making up his mind to pass to the corner, but it was intercepted by Herro. The visitors immediately fouled with .9 seconds left. They committed another on Highsmith with .2 left. He made one out of two. Boston managed to get a shot off after its timeout, but it air-balled.

After the game, when Spo was asked about Bam potentially playing in the All-Star Game, he said, “Certainly, I am rooting for it. I thought he should have been an All-Star last year…”

On the team’s performance, Spo praised their coherency and confidence in understanding how Boston would attack late in the game.

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Heat Survive Against the Pelicans

For the first 21 minutes of Sunday’s competitive affair at Miami-Dade Arena, the Heat’s vain play from Friday night continued. As halftime approached, supporters grew anxious as NOLA’s lead ballooned to 16 points.  Then, Miami flipped like a light switch and found a pulse on offense.

 

In the first quarter, the Pelicans were ravaging the paint, converting easily without all five Heatles getting back on multiple possession changes, and beating the hosts in the half-court.  Jonas Valanciunas overpowered Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler in the post, then hit an elbow jumper when #13 sagged off him.

 

In transition, CJ McCollum used a pick on the left wing to slither to the nail for a jumper in front of Adebayo in drop coverage.  On a broken play with eight seconds left on the shot clock, CJ reset at the top of the key and blew by Victor Oladipo for an unchallenged make at the rim.  Orlando Robinson was the Heat’s closest big man, but he was jammed by Larry Nance Jr’s back screen.  

 

All three of Trey Murphy III’s first-half baskets came on fastbreaks.  As the Heat jogged back, he sprinted hard, running the right and left lanes.  

 

NOLA routinely doubled Butler in the mid-post, a strategy used successfully by the Mavericks on Friday.  Through 24 minutes, Butler had five points, none coming in the half-court.  Ball movement was not up to standards for the sixth straight quarter. And Miami’s marksmen, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, shot four blanks for the period.  

 

In the last few minutes of the half, Miami scratched its way back with a 10-0 run. Defensively, they strangled NOLA at the point of attack by intercepting a couple of passes, creating its fastbreak chances.  It all started with the charge Lowry drew on Nance in transition.  

 

Herro nailed a triple on the left wing on account of Robinson picking up #14’s first miss from the same spot.  Next, Lowry snatched Herb Jones’ errant pass from the right wing to the other for a break that finished with a soft Oladipo layin.  

 

Dribbling back into Miami territory, McCollum forced a switch against Herro, but Oladipo doubled.  Trying to pass out of the blitz to Jones, Butler deflected the rock, Oladipo recovered it and gave it right back to JB for the layup plus a free throw.

 

On the next play, Adebayo and Oladipo blitzed McCollum again on the wing.  Both defenders overwhelmed him, and #4 pulled the ball out of his grasp, then hit Herro with a hit-ahead pass he scored on. 

 

In the last 24 minutes, Miami secured the perimeter.  New Orleans converted four out of 16 attempts and committed 12 of its 24 turnovers.  The Heat also found a way to get to the line for 18 of its 27 tries, finishing the night with 22 made freebies.  

 

With three minutes left, the Pelicans were down two points.  Through nine minutes of the fourth quarter, the rivals were shooting 50% from the floor.  Subsequently, Lowry scored the following nine points for the Heat.  

 

The first bucket was a step-back triple on the right wing against Nance in drop coverage.  On the succeeding offensive possession, Jaxson Hayes bit on a fake at the post.  Lowry maneuvered around him for a banker off the glass.  For the third bucket, he took rookie Dyson Daniels off the dribble at the key for a two-foot shot.  His last basket was a pull-up jumper in front of Nance at the elbow.  

 

In a game that both squads combined for 45 turnovers, six Heatles recorded a steal, and they won the points off turnovers battle 15-10.  It’s incomparable to how Dallas smoked them in the same stat, 31-10.

 

At the postgame presser, coach Erik Spoelstra was humorful about the team’s 21st game decided by five points or fewer.  “Every night.  This is must-see, must-be TV and action live.”

 

On the topic of vintage Lowry looking for his spots, he praised his QB.  “That last three minutes, he read that intuitively.  Anytime we were trying to make a pass, they were making a deflection or a steal.  It was more get to an action and get a shot on goal.  He’ll felt that.  He understood that…”

 

It’s a shame no one asked him why Lowry hasn’t recognized those situations for most of the season. 

 

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Injury Bug isn’t all that’s biting the Miami Heat

On Wednesday, the Miami Heat had their best performance of the season. Forty-eight hours later, they were embarrassed by the Dallas Mavericks on national television.

 

That’s been the story of the 2022 Heat. Up and down. On and off. Hot and cold. If their season through 47 games were to be summed up using only one word, it’d be this: Volatile.

 

We can continue to pin this on health, but it’s way more significant than that. Something is broken. In reality, most of Miami’s wins during this ‘hot stretch’ have come against tanking teams or teams facing many injuries.

 

I know that hurts to hear, but it’s the truth. And in moments like this, truth is not the enemy. With 35 games remaining in the regular season and the trade deadline quickly approaching, it’s time to ditch the excuses.

 

So, where do we go from here? Well, before anything gets fixed, it must be addressed. I’m going to throw the ‘injuries’ excuse out with the trash and shine a light on a few issues the Heat must correct if they want to make another postseason run.

 

Three-Point Shooting (Or Lack thereof) 

 

Miami led the entire league in 3pt% last season (39.7%). A few games past the midway point, they are 26th (33.7%). This a problem. Especially considering Miami is among the slowest-paced teams in the league and relies heavily on their half-court efficiency.

 

It’s gotten so bad lately that Miami won’t even shoot them. Over the last two games, they’ve attempted only 28.4 threes – a number that would put them dead last in the league.

 

This was evident against Dallas on Friday, as Miami went into the half with two three-point makes compared to the Mavericks’ 11. Two. You can’t expect to win many games with a discrepancy like that. Fortunately for the Heat, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo were aggressive offensively and kept the game *somewhat* close. This trend continued in the second half and Miami wound up being outscored 4-18 from three-point land.

 

It appears that Miami knows this is its Achilles heel. So much so, that there were few times when guys simply passed up a good look. This has resulted in oversharing and, ultimately, poor-quality looks with the shot clock winding down.

 

Take this example from Oladipo. Miami is down by 16 points midway through the third (turd) quarter. Kyle Lowry pump fakes, collapses the defense, and kicks out to Oladipo on the perimeter. Rather than taking the three in rhythm, Oladipo pump fakes and settles for a contested 19-foot jump shot.

 

https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2023/01/20/0022200686/376/08137b32-c927-1f0b-f95a-f3c4a4f690f4_1280×720.mp4

 

Situations like this must stop. If teams are going to double-team Jimmy Butler like the Mavericks did last night, guys have to be ready to shoot. It’s all fun and dandy to have talented mid-range assassins on your team in Bam Adebayo, Herro, and Oladipo, but when teams are taking double the amount of threes and making four times as much, you have a problem.

 

What is a Kyle Lowry?

 

Are you ready for Lowry’s numbers over his last 8 games?

 

6.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on 35/20/75 shooting splits.

 

$30 million.

 

I’m not even going to mention any hypothetical trades or suggest that Gabe Vincent should start ahead of him. Put simply, the Heat have to get him going.

 

It’s clear that his impact has been diminished with Butler, Herro, and Adebayo handling the ball a bit more, but Lowry has also been a potato off the ball. If he’s not going to shoot, as evidenced by his eight total FG attempts over the last two games, it completely neutralizes Miami’s offense.

 

I will give Lowry his flowers for pushing the tempo and getting the Heat out and running after misses, makes, and turnovers. That was evident in his return against the Pelicans on Wednesday. But the role he is needed for at this point in his career requires him to be a threat offensively. If he won’t (can’t) do that, then I propose this question:

 

What do the Heat have to lose by starting Vincent?

 

Max Strus Needs To Get Loose

 

It’s been a long time since we’ve heard the catchphrase, “the Strus is loose”. Max is shooting less than 32% from long range over his last 10 games and a hair over 33% for the season. As Miami’s only true “sniper”, this can’t happen.

 

His lack of efficiency is even more troubling when you consider that he’s often being hunted on the defensive side of the ball. Pull up the tape from Friday’s loss to the Mavericks. Luka Doncic was going at him early and often and each time resulted in either a made basket or a foul.

You could say it’s up to Erik Spoelstra to get him going, but it simply comes down to Strus hitting shots. According to Synergy, Strus knocked down 47% of his unguarded catch-and-shoot threes last season.

 

That number has fallen to 42% this year.

 

For the crowd that says teams have scouted him and that’s led to his decreased efficiency – Strus has been left unguarded 1% less this season according to Synergy. A small decrease, but it goes to show nothing drastic has taken place from other teams.

 

It’s quite simple: Strus has to be more efficient from downtown.

 

Have Some Guts

 

Remember Game 5 of the 2022 Eastern Conference Semifinals? Heat vs. Sixers. Series tied 2-2.

 

Miami had just lost two straight after going up 2-0 and Philadelphia had all the momentum. Things looked bleak. Miami’s back was against the wall. How did they respond?

 

Miami won by 35 points.

 

How about a round later in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics? Facing elimination in Game 6, Butler drops 47 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, and four steals to force a Game 7.

 

I bring that up because this organization thrives in these types of settings. At present day, it’s been an up-and-down roller coaster of a season. It’s tough to be optimistic about this team as currently constructed. I get that.

 

But one trade deadline and a few spots of positive regression later and this team are more than capable of rolling into the playoffs with home-court advantage. And we already know how teams feel about playing the Heat in the postseason.

 

In the words of fellow Five Reasons contributor Greg Sylvander, “Have some guts!”

We’re within striking distance and Pat Riley knows that.

 

Besides, winning feels so much better with a little adversity.

********

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Mavericks Annihilate Heat

For the second time in a week, the Miami Heat came up winless on primetime TV. First in Atlanta on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, then on Friday, in Dallas for a second-half buzzsaw as brutal as JFK’s ride through the city. The team’s tape review will assuredly be as horrifying as the Zapruder Film.

Miami only logged three assists and six field goals in the first quarter. The Mavs’ length in man-to-man coverage, plus double-teaming Jimmy Butler in the half-court, froze the Heat’s offense. Bam Adebayo, uncharacteristically, laid five close-range duds in the period and didn’t record his first basket until a minute into the second quarter, his sixth attempt. The two positive team signs that followed were that Miami found chances at the line and Victor Oladipo never went cold.

The Heatles managed to slow the game down with its 27 charity stripe shots, but that didn’t stop the wild horses. When Miami deployed drop coverage against Luka Dončić in pick and roll, Adebayo was the low man unable to contain his drive to the cup. Again in PNR, this time against Caleb Martin playing tight, Dončić dribbled left towards the wing, stepped back and canned a triple.

The end of the first quarter was an omen. With three seconds left, Luka caught the ball at midcourt off a sideline inbound, assisted by Dwight Powell’s screen on Adebayo. Martin reached and missed on the steal, leaving Dončić dribbling towards the right wing. From 37 feet away, he splashed over Max Strus’ late contest.

Through 12 minutes, Miami was down by 14 points. They managed to cut the deficit to nine at the intermission, led by Oladipo’s four out of four made shots and Adebayo and Tyler Herro remembering how to score.

Vic isolated Powell for a running hook with no help, blew by Reggie Bullock for a layup, hit two shots after curling into the lane aided by a screen and buried a transition triple. Bam hit a couple of layups in transition with one tap-in off Herro’s miss from the left wing. Like an elite offensive lineman, #13 provided the openings for his man, Herro, to creep into the paint on two of his baskets. Tyler’s other two field goals came zipping past Tim Hardaway Jr. for a pull-up and a turnaround hook in the low post.

Of course, what followed was the turd quarter. This festering issue came back like the unwelcome yearly tax bill. In this frame, the Heatles were beat on the glass by six and misfired on 13 out of 19 shots and three of its six free throws.

Kyle Lowry’s first-quarter spark didn’t have an encore. He recorded a couple of transition baskets and then made one free throw through 12 minutes in quarters two and three. He didn’t take a shot in his eight minutes of second-half action.

Errors were also made on the other side. Even on a SLOB pass, a late switch on Dončić, the inbounder, left Spencer Dinwiddie open on the right wing for a triple. Defending PNR, Miami blitzed Luka with Oladipo and Martin up top on the right. It was no thang. Dončić passed over both of them, finding the roll man, Powell, in the middle for a bank shot.

Unfortunately for the visitors, there was no mercy rule after 36 minutes. Courtesy of the Mavericks’ 25-point lead, Butler and Lowry rested during the final period. The most alarming stat of the evening was Miami was wiped out in points off turnovers, 31-10, in favor of Dallas.

Coach Erik Spoelstra said postgame the night was wasted. “We were never able to have that competitive disposition that we’ve had virtually all season long…”

Politely, Spo told everyone his team gave up.

 

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Gabe Vincent starting over Kyle Lowry is the Spark Miami Needs

The Miami Heat is currently enjoying its best (and healthiest) stretch of basketball this season. They’ve won 12 of their last 18 games and appear poised to make up lost ground over the remaining 37 games. In the midst of finding a rhythm, a scintillating two-game stretch from Gabe Vincent has ignited an interesting debate among Heat fans:

 

Should Vincent continue to start at point guard, even when Kyle Lowry returns to the lineup?

 

Before setting the stage, we have to get one thing clear: shame on Lowry. The sole fact that this is even up for debate is an indictment on his tenure in Miami. Sure, there have been some good moments. But ultimately his impact has not lived up to the near $30 million yearly price tag it took to acquire him. Because of that, two-impressive games from Vincent against the Milwaukee Bucks’ JV team was all it took for fans to begin beating the drum. Let it be known that this discussion has much more to do with Lowry than it does with Vincent. Let’s proceed.

 

At face value, the Heat are an average team offensively. At least that’s what the numbers indicate. They are outscoring opponents by less than a point per 100 possessions (0.4) and it has them sitting in the 52nd percentile as a result.

 

With Lowry on the floor, the numbers get worse.

 

Across the 1,257 minutes he’s played this season, Miami is a -2.4 per 100 possessions. That’s a pretty big sample size. As for Vincent, the numbers tell an entirely different story. The Heat is a +2.8 per 100 possessions in his 782 minutes on the floor this season.

 

In nearly every advanced stat, Miami is a negative with Lowry and a positive with Vincent – both offensively and defensively.

 

That said, it would be naive to derive an opinion from solely looking at just one source of individual advanced stat. After all, injuries have forced Miami to trot out a plethora of different lineup combinations and taking a closer look could paint a better picture.

 

The Heat’s most-used lineup this season has been that of Lowry – Tyler Herro – Caleb Martin – Jimmy Butler – Bam Adebayo. This group has seen a total of 405 possessions together and has been solid in every way. They are outscoring teams by more than nine points per 100 possessions and forcing turnovers on 18.4% of opponents possessions. That’s like, really good. (It’s also an indicator on where Miami would be if they could just stay healthy).

 

Things get even more interesting if you substitute Vincent for Lowry with the rest of the group staying the same. Are you ready for these numbers? In Vincent’s 68 total possessions with the rest of Miami’s starters, the Heat are outscoring opponents by 23.5 points per 100 possessions and humming with a 61.1 eFG%. I know, it’s a very small sample size, but we’re here to have some fun, right?

 

It’s plain as day. Vincent has been more valuable to the Heat this season during his time on the floor per the numbers. Overreacting to a few good games and making drastic changes isn’t wise. But with Lowry continuing to operate on career-low efficiency and Miami flirting with play-in territory, they are running out of time to figure it out.

 

Vincent has the hot hand. His offensive spark is exactly what the Heat need to jumpstart their climb back to being one of the many juggernauts of the East.

 

 And if one thing is true it’s this: Erik Spoelstra isn’t afraid to ride the hot hand. Just ask Duncan Robinson.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Gabe Vincent Shines in Kyle Lowry’s Absence

The Heatles went 2-0 in the miniseries against the Fawns between Thursday and Saturday in Miami. Giannis Antetokounmpo sat because of knee soreness, a gift for the hosts that assisted in padding its league record. Now, for the first time this season, the Heat are four games above .500.

Miami’s 2-3 zone followed up its masterful work securing the interior and influencing the Bucks to almost exclusively play from the outside. Over both games, Milwaukee logged a meager 44 points in the paint. Yet, on Saturday, the Bucks got five more attempts in the square (25) than it had previously. Although, Miami held them to 24.4 percentage points below the league average in the restricted area (40%).

More evidence that the zone neutered the Bucks: Bobby Portis, who converts 69% of tries at the rim and half from 3-10 feet, for the season, missed two in the restricted area and shot 33% in the rest of the lane, plus Brook Lopez attempted just one shot in the box.Typically, half of Lopez’s looks come from the paint.

Miami started the first half sizzling from deep, primarily behind the marksmanship of Kyle Lowry’s understudy, Gabe Vincent, who made five out of seven 3-pointers for the period. While he took spot-up shots and splashed trays off the dribble, he was as radiant as the Wolf-Rayet star.

Vincent’s first two-pointer didn’t come until early in the second quarter. A failed pick by Orlando Robinson minimally freed Gabe from AJ Green in the right corner. Green went over the screen, taking away the driving lane, but Vincent pulled up for a long contested two that swished.

Next, as #2 dribbled in transition, Bam Adebayo screened Grayson Allen at the top of the key. Vincent used the opening to get to the nail for his second jumper, unbothered.

For his third midrange shot of the half, Adebayo, again, shielded his defender in the halfcourt at the top. Vincent stepped into the lane, attacked Portis in drop coverage, and hit a floater covered by the low man and his initial matchup, Allen.

At the intermission, Vincent had 21 points. His efficiency from the field continued in the last 24 minutes but on a smaller volume of three out of four made buckets with an assist, a rebound and a pair of steals. He finished the game with 27 points, two shy of the career high he set on Thursday.

At the postgame press conference, Vincent said, “I think I was just in a rhythm, and my guys did a really good job of getting me open time and time again. Whether that’s shutting the screen or cutting, or finding me when I’m open in the corner… They did a good job of that, and I made some shots. That always helps.”

These back-to-back games for Vincent scoring at least 20 points have only happened four times in his career. The first time was in 2021, between Jan. 12-14. The second was later that year, from Dec. 15-17. The third was in 2022, on Feb. 28 and March 2. His latest was Thursday and Saturday. For whatever it’s worth, the starting point guard for this team, Lowry, has only done that three times in a Heat uniform through one and a half seasons.

The production at the one spot has been so unreliable this year for the Heatles that Vincent’s last week of play should instantly spark a controversy over who gets the shine and who becomes the squire. This is not an overreaction to facing a two-time MVP-less squad. The last time Lowry recorded at least 20 points in a game was on Dec. 23, and he’s done it in six of his 36 nights of action. Keep in mind there are currently 42 players qualifying for league leaders who are averaging at least 20 a night.

For the record, holding that average for a starting point guard is unnecessary. But shooting above 40% for the season is. This puts Miami in an awkward spot because both Lowry and Vincent are below that.

Age has diminished Lowry’s ability. If Vincent doesn’t take his spot he should eat a large chunk of the veteran’s minutes.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Victor Oladipo Makes His Teammates’ Jobs Easier

Heat culture revived Victor Oladipo’s career. Then he saved the outfit’s season. In five of his last six games, he’s scored in double figures and helped Miami capture four wins. The five weeks it’s taken for Vic to find himself had a significant impact on the club’s two-way production.

It’s a darn shame the NBA has no official comeback player of the year award anymore. For the past four seasons, Oladipo has been plagued with injuries that robbed him of his natural gifts.

Since his first game this season for Miami on Dec. 6, Oladipo has suited up 17 out of 19 times. Before his insertion in the rotation, the Heat placed 18th in October and 13th in November in defensive rating. In December, Miami was ninth and currently first in the same stat for the six games played in January (4-2).

Even when he arrived in Miami, badly needing a second surgery to address the lingering pain in his right knee tendon, he was still a bullet on defense. He played in four games prior to reaggrevating the injury while logging 25 minutes in a win against the Lakers at home.

Last season, Oladipo doubled that to eight regular season matches between March. 7- Apr. 10, 2022. In the team’s last outing of the year against the Magic in Orlando, Vic had a 40-point outburst. His finest performance in the playoffs for Miami came when it eliminated the Hawks in Game 5 at home. It was his only start in the postseason, and he recorded 23 points with three rebounds and three takeaways.

On Thursday against a depleted Bucks squad, Oladipo came off the bench for 14 points, eight assists, eight rebounds and a steal. In his 33 minutes, he assisted Miami in securing the paint (18 points allowed) and holding Milwaukee to 40.2% shooting from the floor.

On his first score, he sized up Milwaukee’s Jordan Nwora on the left wing, then hit a triple in his face.

Pick and roll with Orlando Robinson provided Vic the opening to slice into the lane for a reverse layup under the rim on his next basket. His interception of a loose ball at the top of the key ignited a one-on-one fastbreak against Pat Connaughton on the next one. In full stride, Oladipo spun past his defender for a finish before the tracking Nwora could disrupt the play with a chase-down.

On his fourth make, Bam Adebayo set a screen against Jevon Carter. Unwisely, Carter went under the pick, and #4 canned a 27-foot triple. For his last field goal, Oladipo recovered his own missed jumper with no Bucks in the restricted area and went back up for a putback layup.

For the first time this season, the Miami Heat are three games above .500. This position is nothing to brag about, but considering how poorly the year began for the club, the group’s stock is rising. Oladipo is a significant factor behind that and probably the team’s fourth-best player. He can create separation without a screen, a skill that’s eluded Kyle Lowry because of age. For this reason, Miami must ride the wave of Vic’s solid play as long as it can.

His impact makes his teammates’ lives easier on the court. Listen to Tyler Herro. Following Miami’s loss on Sunday to the Nets, he said, “I tell [Oladipo] when I’m playing off the ball, it helps me a lot when he’s in the game. Just cause they’re so focused on me. When Vic comes in it gives another threat who can shoot, attack and do really everything offensively… He looks for me in transition. I tell him to be aggressive as much as possible.”

If this production level from Oladipo continues, the probability of the Heat securing home-court advantage through round one of the playoffs doesn’t seem so unrealistic.