NBA Lottery Mock Draft: Cunningham and company

This Thursday we will see the lives of 60 young men change forever, finally reaching their dream  of being drafted into the NBA. In today’s mock draft, we will be focusing on the most valuable  picks: the Lottery picks, #1 – #14. I will be pinpointing the best fits for both the team picking and  for the prospect being selected, not necessarily who we believe the teams will pick but more so  who they should pick.  

Without further ado, let’s begin. 

 

#1. Detroit Pistons – Cade Cunningham (FR, Oklahoma State,  PG/SG/SF) 

Essentially the consensus #1 overall prospect, Cunningham is one of the cleanest, most  complete prospects to enter the draft in the past decade. Cade is a 3-level scorer who can  create his own shot just as easily as he can create one for his teammates, splendid rebounding  with natural defense instincts while also taking full advantage of his length in the passing lanes.  If there is one complaint of Cade it would be that he is a good, not great athlete and can be a bit  Careless with the basketball, averaging four turnovers during his lone year at Oklahoma State.  Having an NBA ready body at 6’8, 225lbs, being every bit of a 2-way player and having the  playmaking abilities of a lead guard, he would slot in on almost any team, especially one devoid  of talent such as the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has needs at every position except PF with Jerami Grant taking the leap this past season. A high floor, high ceiling prospect such as Cade is just  what Pistons fans have been waiting for to lead their storied franchise back to the promise land. 

Draft Grade: 95/100 

NBA Comp: Grant Hill with a jump shot 

 

#2. Houston Rockets – Evan Mobley (FR, USC, PF/C) 

The draft truly begins at pick #2 with the Rockets being in a favorable position to begin their  rebuild after trading away former MVPs Russell Westbrook and James Harden in the past year.  While I was contemplating plugging in G-League standout Jalen Green, With the emergence of  Kevin Porter Jr the fit isn’t quite there and the skill sets would be rather redundant, Mobley just  makes too much sense for Houston. A rare talent in his own right, Mobley has all the tools NBA  teams are looking for in a modern big man, starting with his diverse offensive portfolio. A  capable ball handler with both his left and right hand who has advanced passing IQ for a big  man, excelling in dribbling hand-offs, and making live reads. In terms of scoring, he can score  from all over the court in the half court setting and fast break. Mobley has been praised for his  jump shot and has developed a consistent mid-range J but has work to do with his three ball to  become a true threat from deep. All this about his offense and we haven’t even gotten to his 

best trait, being an anchor on defense. Having the switchability desired for modern bigs thanks  to his smooth hips and elite length as a true 7-footer with a whooping 7’4” wingspan, He uses  these same traits as a high-end rim defender, averaging 2.9 blocks per game and most  impressively for me, only being called for 2.1 fouls per game. My biggest knock on him is his  lanky body type, he needs to add muscle and mass to his frame to continue his development  and maximize his impact. All in All, Evan Mobley is the prototype for what NBA executives are  looking for in today’s game. 

Draft Grade: 92/100 

NBA Comp: Myles Turner/Bam Adebayo Hybrid 

 

Loading
Loading...

 

#3. Cleveland Cavaliers – Jalen Green (2002, G-League Ignite,  SG) 

Possibly the most explosive player in this draft class, Jalen Green has all the tools needed to  be one of the top scorers in the league. Green possesses elite athleticism, which can best be  seen on display in the fast break and an outstanding leaping ability that rivals the likes of Aaron  Gordan and Zach LaVine. With his physical tools he has a knack of getting to the rim and  putting some electric jams on display. While not the best shooter, he has a smooth base and  form to his jumper along with the ability to create space to let it fly from anywhere on the floor.  He does, however, tend to get complacent and settle for the jumper too often which can be  frustrating at times, especially when he has the clear athletic advantage to blow by his defender  90% of the time. Jalen owns a wicked handle which is just amplified by his quick twitch athleticism, having an arsenal of step backs, crossovers and hesitation dribbles that leave his  defenders frozen on the court. In terms of play making, he is more of a natural SG with the  ability to initiate an offense but can’t necessarily be counted on to be a floor general. On the  negative side, despite his physical gifts, Jalen has had a negative impact on defense, lacking  the base fundamentals and having the tendency of getting lost when trying to navigate through  screens. The hope is that with the proper coaching he can improve on that side of the ball. For  the Cavs, this selection, to the dismay of their fans, would most likely spell the end of the  SexLand era in Cleveland as Collin Sexton has been on the trade block this offseason, as  reported by Five Reasons own Adam Borai and Greg Sylvander in late June, and bringing in  Jalen Green may be the final nail on the coffin. 

Draft grade: 90.5/100 

NBA Comp: DeMar DeRozan/Zach LaVine 

 

#4. Toronto Raptors – Jalen Suggs (FR, Gonzaga, PG) 

After a great run in the March Madness tournament, highlighted by his iconic game-winning  shot to eliminate UCLA in the final 4, Jalen has shot up draft boards and, in our mock, finds  himself as the successor to Kyle Lowry in Toronto. Suggs, an exceptional athlete in his own  right, uses his quick first to relentlessly attack the basket with a rare combination of grace and  

power plus he has the bounce to put anyone on a poster if you aren’t careful. He excels in the 

fast break putting pressure on the defense while always on the lookout for an open teammate.  His jumper is good, not great and it can be expected to improve as he develops in the league,  but if the defense leaves him too much space, he can make them pay. He is a great playmaker  using his court vision to find the open man in various ways and not scared to throw into tight  windows. Jalen’s calling card, however, is his defense. Displaying excellent defensive IQ, can  navigate through an ocean of screens and is a bulldog with his on-ball defense, never shying away from playing up on D and being a menace in the passing lanes. With the probability that  Kyle Lowry is on his way out this offseason, Suggs slots in perfectly in his role and will be  someone that Raptors fans will grow to love. 

Draft grade: 92/100 

NBA Comp: Kyle Lowry/DeAaron Fox  

 

#5. Orlando Magic – Jonathan Kuminga (2002, G-League Ignite,  SF) 

This is the spot in the draft where it gets a bit messy. With the top four prospects gone,  prospects #5- #10 are all similar in terms of talent, and each having their own warts that might  scare teams off. Jonathan Kuminga, while talented, falls into this group. A plus athlete with a  NBA ready body, attacks the basket and cuts to the rim with reckless abandon, once he gets a  full head of steam it is increasingly difficult to stop him from getting to the rack. Obviously, he is  a wrecking ball in the fast break showcasing his straight-line speed and covers up ground rather  quickly. Kuminga’s problem is he hasn’t developed much since entering the G-League, he has  been battling lower leg injuries for the past year and a half which always makes GMs rather  hesitant. He lacked natural defensive instincts to consistently be reliable on that end, seems to  lack interest on that end as he has been caught being lackadaisical off ball and lazy on-ball. His  poor shooting splits (39%/25%/62%) make it clear he has a lot of work to do before he can be  considered a 3-level scorer or have defenses respect his jumper. Kuminga has all the physical,  natural gifts to be an impact player and potentially an all-star in the NBA, but he needs to make  drastic changes to his offensive skill set, and he needs to apply effort and interest on the  defensive end. He will be an interesting project that may pay dividends for Orlando, who will be  heading to their 2nd official rebuild since the Dwight Howard Trade. 

Draft grade: 88/100 

NBA Comp: Jaylen Brown Lite 

 

#6. OKC Thunder– Scottie Barnes (FR, Florida State, SF/Point  Forward) 

OKC can go a multitude of directions with this pick, and I honestly don’t think they have a set  gameplan or preference since the Big-4 prospects have been selected. With the treasure  chest of draft picks only seen on 2k rebuilds, GM Sam Presti has his work cut out for him. 

Scottie is a legit 1-4 defender with the length and frame needed to guard centers in spots.  Plays with a lot of passion and effort which makes life near impossible for opposing ball  handlers when he is guarding them one-on-one and has no problem switching on screens.  Has great discipline and is engaged off the ball where he takes advantage of his length in the  passing lanes, making him a great fit in any defensive scheme. On offense, he was tasked as  the play initiator and playmaker and he excelled in that spot, showcasing his ball skills, court  vision and overall basketball IQ. The biggest negative for Barnes is his lack of scoring in the  half court, not having a reliable jumper, doesn’t have a quick first step to blow by defenders,  his ball handle is adequate but not enough to freeze defenders and he has trouble creating  space and getting his own shot, even if does find space his jump shot from anywhere on the  court is non-existent at the moment. He is the type of player that OKC has been taking  chances on to develop in recent years and he fits in nicely, having the chance to develop his  offensive game with the proper coaching and putting in the hours in the gym. If he can develop  a respectable stand still jumper in catch and shoot situations, he will have a long career in the  NBA as one of the scariest 3&D players around. 

Draft grade: 86/100 

NBA Comp: OG Anunoby/Draymond Green Hybrid 

 

#7. Golden State Warriors – Franz Wagner (SO, Michigan,  Forward) 

The Golden State Warriors are in a sticky situation. With the core of Steph, Klay and Draymond  entering the final stages of their careers, they need to either trade their picks for an All-star level  talent, or draft quality NBA Ready prospects they believe can help them right now. In this mock  

we don’t do trades, therefore we are slotting in Forward Franz Wagner. Franz is every bit of a  two-way player, being a Swiss army knife that can cover a variety of roles. An instant impact  defender, he has a natural feel for the game and reads defense well enough to at times beat his  man to his spot. Offensively he can be trusted to use his size and court vision to execute dribble  handoffs and keep the ball moving and make accurate passes. He has a sweet stroke from  downtown, being the ideal 3&D player the moment he steps on the court. very efficient with the  basketball and someone who will benefit greatly from playing alongside the two greatest shooters in NBA history. 

Draft grade: 83/100 

NBA Comp: Shane Battier 

 

#8. Orlando Magic – Moses Moody (FR, Arkansas, SG/SF) 

After the selection of a boom or bust prospect in Jonathan Kuminga, we see the Magic taking a  safer, more surefire player in Moses Moody. Moody is one of the more Physical guards in this  draft, having an excellent frame and wingspan to make the lives of opposing guards a misery. 

Very active on ball defender and displays his defensive IQ when roaming off ball and never  looks lost on defense. Offensively he has a reliable jumper from 12-18 feet and has a decent  standstill jumper form 3. Moody can get to the rim but is not a very good finisher and can’t be  relied on as a 1st option at the next level mainly due to the fact he struggles to create his own  shot against good defenders. Excellent rebounder has a nose for the ball once it’s in the air. 

Draft grade: 82/100 

NBA Comp: Elfrid Payton/Andre Iguodala Hybrid 

 

#9. Sacramento Kings – Kai Jones (SO, Texas, C/PF) 

Kai Jones is a raw but talented big man who with proper coaching can have a long career in  the NBA. Regardless of how the league evolves and transforms, there will always be a  demand for rim protectors and Jones provides just that while also having the mobility to switch  between screens on to smaller players. He does however still need to improve his defensive  IQ, having picked up basketball deep into his teens, he at times gets lost on rotations. He is an  ok rebounder, and he doesn’t have the physicality you would want but he will get there once  he fills out his frame at the next level. The shooting mechanics aren’t there just yet, but I  project he will be a decent 3-point shooter as he progresses. With the likely departure of  Richaun Holmes this offseason, Kai will be able to eventually take care of that starting center  spot for Sacramento. 

Draft grade: 82/100 

NBA Comp: Dewayne Dedmon/Nerlens Noel 

 

#10. Memphis Grizzlies – Josh Giddy (2002, Adelaide 36ers,  Combo Guard) 

Well, this pick was formerly of the New Orleans Pelicans until they traded it to off-load Eric  Bledsoe and Steven Adams on to the Grizzlies along with a 2022 top-10 protected Laker pick  and pick swaps. I originally had Sharpshooter Chris Duarte slotted in here for the Pelicans, a  team that is in dire need of some floor spacing for Zion and co. for Memphis though, i like the fit  of Josh Giddy for them. Josh played in the same league LaMelo Ball did, the NBL in Australia.  In his lone season on the 36ers, he put on display his exceptional playmaking ability, especially  considering he is 6’8. His height helped him pull down 7.1 REB per game, so expect him to be a  triple double threat one he gets settled in the NBA. offensively Giddy gets to the basket with  ease and had an excellent finishing rate of 64.1% at the rim in the half-court setting. His jumper  needs some work as it isn’t very consistent, mainly from beyond the 3pt arc. Defensively,  although he has the size advantage over move guards, he tends to get blown by on the regular,  not being able to keep up with shiftier players. He has shown glimpses of an adequate off-ball  defender and he should improve with age and experience. I think the fit is there next to Ja  Morant in Memphis, allowing Ja to be able to focus on getting buckets while he and Giddy share  playmaking duties.

Draft grade: 82/100 

NBA Comp: Lonzo Ball/Jalen Rose 

 

#11. Charlotte Hornets – Davion Mitchell (RS Junior, Baylor,  SG/PG) 

The selection of Kai Jones by Sacramento in this mock draft would be disastrous for the  Hornets, as that is the perfect play to plug in at the 5 spot. The good news for them is they  might have gotten a bit of a steal picking up Davion Mitchell. I’ve seen mocks with Mitchell  going as high as #7, which just highlights his talent. Mitchell continues the theme we’ve seen in  this draft class, a high-level defender with excellent off ball IQ on defense. Can easily create his  own shot and can put his opponents on skates with his wide array of dribble moves. Gets to the  rim with ease despite his size (6’0) and is a nice playmaker who can handle the pressure of a  double team and tight on ball defense. Some teams may be skeptical of his 3-point shooting  this year due to the fact he is a below average free throw shooter and he shot 31% from beyond  the arc in his RS Sophomore season. In Mitchell, LaMelo Ball has his long-term running mate at  the guard spot being able to carry the load on the defensive side and making both Terry Rozier and Devonte Graham expendable. 

Draft grade: 84/100 

NBA Comp: Mo Cheeks/Avery Bradley Hybrid 

 

#12. San Antonio Spurs – Alperen Sengun (2002, Turkey, C/PF) 

The Spurs have been floating around in purgatory for the past few seasons, and this seems to  be the offseason where they hit the hard reset with the departure of Lamarcus Aldridge and  DeMar DeRozan’s pending free agency. San Antonio has historically had great results drafting  international players, with a list that includes Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili & Tiago Splitter. Now  they get a chance to continue the legacy with Turkish prospect Alperen Sengun. I’m going to  be very honest, as much as I love basketball, I don’t spend too much of my time following the  Turkish Super League, I do have YouTube though, so this pick and assessment is based  completely off YouTube highlights, welcome to the 21st century. Alperen does have some buzz  as a high-end offensive player with potential to improve defensively one he fills out his frame a  bit as at the moment he’s a bit of a tweener, not to sure if he’s a center or power forward right  now which in the modern NBA isn’t too much of a problem. There is always a fear with these euro prospects, a fear of the unknown as an NBA fan not knowing what to expect and a fear of  drafting the next Darko Milicic. However, with the developmental program the spurs have in  place, I believe this young man will have at the least a decent NBA career, and if he can put all  the tools together… look out. 

Draft grade: 83/100

NBA Comp: Jahlil Okafor/Domantas Sabonis  

 

#13. Indiana Pacers – Usman Garuba (2002, Real Madrid,  PF/SF) 

The Pacers are another interesting team to pick a prospect for because they have so much  talent on this team but faced a mountain of injuries this past season and with new coach Rick  Carlisle, are seemingly looking to make a playoff push. Indiana allowed the 6th most PPG last  season with 115.35, already having a bevy of offensive talent so I believe Usman is the perfect  fit to grow on this team. High effort player, he is a nightmare on defense roaming around the  court and causing deflections, contesting shots and intercepting passing lanes. On offense he  can be trusted to find the open man and has a dependable handle if you’re not asking him to do  too much. Offensively there is a lot of work to be done and Indiana has the staff to help him,  plus with players like Caris LeVert, Domantas Sabonis and Malcom Brogdon around, Usman  should be able to focus on what he does best, wreak havoc on opposing offenses. 

Draft grade: 80/100 

NBA Comp: Dennis Rodman/Precious Achiuwa Hybrid  

 

#14. Golden State Warriors – James Bouknight (SO, UConn,  SG/PG) 

Golden State just has a Knack for having prospects fall to them on the draft board, and it  happens again in this mock with James Bouknight. A very talented combo guard, James was  the engine of the UConn offense this season with a usage rate of 32%. He will not be getting  anywhere close to that usage rate with the warriors for the next few seasons, but that may be to  his benefit as he focuses on working on the weaker parts of his game like his three ball and on ball defense. James has an incredibly quick first step, applying pressure on opposing defenses  to protect the paint and alongside his slick handle, makes for a lot of fun to watch scoring  possessions. A threat in the passing lanes, he has shown he can be engaged on the defensive  end and has the athleticism to be a plus on-ball defender with time. In my honest opinion, I  don’t believe James or Wagner, drafted #7 in this mock, play for the Warriors this season as I  sense they are looking to make a major upgrade on the roster for one last playoff push.  However, if they are unable to and end up with a young core of James Wisemen, Franz  Wanger and James Bouknight, they will be hands and in good position to pounce if and when a  star is made available during the season. 

Draft grade: 84/100 

NBA Comp: Collin Sexton/Jamal Crawford

 

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

JRod’s Corner: Giannis’ Win Brings Back Facetime Talk

It seems like the talking heads on your favorite and maybe not so favorite sports outlets have been very concerned with who can and cannot be the face of a league.

Stephen A. Smith was lambasted for declaring that Angels phenom, Shohei Ohtani, could not be the face of Major League Baseball because he needs an interpreter. Cries of xenophobia rained down upon the pundit and he publicly apologized. While the lack of English may affect Ohtani’s marketing dollars, he is certainly the most popular player and the face of MLB with Fernando Tatis, Jr right behind him.

Now another commentator, Emmanuel Acho, says it is impossible for newly crowned NBA Champion, Giannis Antetokounmpo, to be the face of the NBA. Acho’s remarks were less anti-foreigner. Kinda.

Listening back to Acho’s segment — which Speak for Yourself has since deleted because the reaction was so negative — he says that to be the face of the NBA needs to be “relatable”. Really? What more relatable than the American dream? I guess Acho doesn’t view the NBA as an immigrant’s league. Antetokounmpo, who is from Greece, has been a twitter darling since his debut in 2013 posting about trying Kool-Aid, eating corn dogs and drinking smoothies for the first time.

But let’s get back to Acho’s “relatable” argument. He goes on to mention LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and Michael Jordan. They were the faces of the NBA because we knew their stories. The good, bad and ugly of it. And according Acho, we just don’t know much about Giannis.

At 26 years old, The Greek Freak has done it all in the NBA. Literally.

Five-time All-Star, two-time MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, NBA Champion, Finals MVP. He’s a Hall of Famer right now!

If Giannis keeps winning; we will know his stories. That’s why Bron, Kobe, Magic, Larry and MJ were the faces of the NBA and Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone and Charles Barkley were not. Championships.

Stephen A. and Emmanuel are cooking up hot takes. It’s their job. It’s show business. I get that. We’re going to seeing a lot more of Giannis. The endorsements are coming, the late-night TV shows, the books and even the movies. Ready or not it’s showtime meets facetime.

 

You can follow Jim Rodriguez at @JRodShow on Twitter and Instagram. 

 

*****

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

Ranking Every Miami Heat Free Agency Target: Part 2

A look at who Miami should or shouldn’t look to sign and how they’d fit on the roster moving forward.

Welcome back to all the Miami basketball fanatics who can’t get enough transaction talk. If you missed the first part of this series where I covered ball-handlers, make sure to read it here before diving into part two. It’s shaping up to be an exciting summer of moves from a handful of teams. Miami will undoubtedly be a mover and a shaker after the way last season left a bad taste in everyone’s mouths. So let’s talk about some wings that are out there to alleviate that bitterness.

Wings:

No, we’re not talking about wings you’d get at a sports bar. Instead, this section will be about the vital commodity that never goes out of style in the NBA. It may have seemed the Heat had a plethora of wings at their disposal over the past couple of seasons, but that was simply a mirage. The wings they had were either too small for certain lineups or only adequate at one end of the floor. Yet, you watch as the teams currently fighting in the Conference Finals have an endless basket of wings they can put on the floor. The best teams all year had wings that we’re able to give their coach flexible lineup options.

The good news is that Miami should be looking to add wings for Coach Spoelstra to work with next season. The bad news is that the options in the Free Agency class are minimal. However, we’re going to go through all the available options today, starting with an excellent one.

Kawhi Leonard (PO, UFA if PO declined):

Age: 30

Fit: 10/10

Reliability: 7/10

Attainability: 2/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 10/10

It’s the summer of players whose initials are KL and played in Toronto. Much like with the other KL, Miami would very much enjoy the services of Kawhi. The playoffs have shown how important it is to have a “bucket-getter” in moments when the offense gets bogged down. These moments demand a player who can take the ball and get to his spots at any given time, especially when those spots are in the mid-range where defenses concede most of their shots. The only downside is his recurring health issues that have his reliability at 7 for this exercise. Honestly, it feels a little high to even have him at that.

You would think Kawhi would be the perfect match. Well, the major hold-up in this potential marriage would be Leonard’s seemingly unbreakable bond with playing in his hometown. It’s tough to read what goes on in most players’ minds, but Kawhi is like trying to read a Cyrillic book without glasses. I don’t think he’ll leave unless something drastic were to happen in the coming weeks. He was close to a finals appearance if not for an injury, and I’m sure he thinks there’s unfinished business. But I will remind everyone that he did want to play with Jimmy Butler in LA before settling for Paul George.

Tim Hardaway Jr (UFA):

Age: 29

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 9/10

Attainability 5/10

Win-Now Player (slight hint of upside)

Overall Rating: 7/10

A name that is very familiar for the South Florida Faithful since the 90s. The name ring a bell, but the playstyle of the man they call THJ is vastly different than his father. While Tim Hardaway Sr. turned into a pretty good shooter in his own right, he was never the sharpshooter his son has turned into. Hardway Jr. has made an argument that he was the core piece dealt in the Knicks-Mavericks Porzingis trade. While I’ve seen some people clamor to bring the prodigal son home, I’m still not entirely convinced. Hardaway Jr. has been a very up and down player throughout his career, and for the second time in a row, he’s performed best when in a contract year.

I’d be very cautious of asking for a semi-one-dimensional player who is adequate on defense but would demand a lot of money. If that’s the case, I’d rather bring back Duncan Robinson, to whom you’d at least hold the bird rights. On the other hand, paying Tim Hardaway Jr. nearly 24 million a year would be a shaky proposition.

Evan Fournier (UFA):

Age: 28

Fit: 4/10

Reliability: 7.5/10

Attainability: 7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 4.5/10

Another name Heat fans should be familiar with, even if the memories are unsavory. Having an RSHK sign in Miami has worked out before with the likes of Wayne Ellington. The difference is that Wayne didn’t cost much, and Fournier would demand a much higher payday. But, outside of the money, I’m not a fan of the fit as a whole. While the former Magic guard does well in secondary creation, he’s very prone to ball-stopping and falling in love with his own shot. He also gives back most of his points on the defensive end due to his size and lack of strength. He’s very much a Plan E type of guy in free agency. I would look out for him if his market were to shrink, and he’d have to settle for a mid-level type of deal.

Kelly Oubre Jr. (UFA)

Age: 25

Fit: 6/10

Reliability: 6/10

Attainability: 7.5/10

Half-Upside/Half-Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 6.5/10

Kelly Oubre went through a season that perfectly encapsulated his career up to this point. Looking like a disaster at the beginning, followed by patches of really nice two-way play. He can drive a fanbase crazy with his peaks and valleys and on-court decision-making. Miami can talk themselves into bringing out the best version of an enigmatic SF/PF the same way they did James Johnson. The price here is a huge indicator if this marriage is possible. I definitely wouldn’t be opposed to a buy low bid for his services the same way Johnson was signed. The market should dictate how much Miami is willing to pursue Oubre. Do Heat fans want another up and down player named Kelly on the team? The Kelly-Coaster Part 2 does have a nice ring to it.

Will Barton (PO, UFA if declined):

Age: 30

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 5.5/10

Attainability: 6/10

Win Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

I’ve always been a fan of the man they call “The Thrill” since his Portland days. He’s always been a competitor and, by all accounts, a great teammate. He can give you a basket if needed and knows how to work with a skilled big man. There are times where he can throw up some very ill-advised jumpers that’ll drive you crazy, but that nickname is there for a reason. At the same time, I may be overstating his ability to break down defenders; there’s noticeable injury history that comes with it. His price will also depend on how much value he holds to teams more desperate at the wing position. But if the price is right, he’d fit right in with the system in place or a different system altogether should things change.

Trevor Ariza (UFA):

Mar 29, 2021; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30) defends against Miami Heat forward Trevor Ariza (8) at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mike Stobe/POOL PHOTOS-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 36

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability 7/10

Attainability: 9/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 7/10

We’ve reached our first Heat player, and the ratings may seem a bit weird to everyone reading this. Let me explain; these are the rating IF Ariza is willing to take on a minimal deal and role. A small mid-level or a veteran’s minimum deals are the ideal scenarios. Ariza was a seamless fit into what Miami could have asked for from a mid-season plug and play starter. However, he should only be brought back on the basis that he’ll be playing off the bench and taking on the Iguodala role. His body is probably at the point where he can’t play long stretches at the 4 anymore. Anything past a bargain price will likely be goodbye to Mr. Ariza.

Norman Powell (PO, UFA if declined):

Age: 28

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 9/10

Attainability: 2/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

Much of what I said about Will Barton can be repeated for Norman Powell. They’re very similar players in that they can be as ignitable as they are prone to droughts. At the same time, Norm does have an edge regarding staying healthy and defensive abilities. Powell’s size can hurt against teams featuring bigger lineups. He’s best used as a 2 but has shown an ability to guard up for small stretches. The major hurdle will be the asking price and the Blazers not wanting to lose him for nothing. Those obstacles will more than likely put this possible partnership on hold this summer.

Duncan Robinson (RFA, Heat hold Bird Rights):

PORTLAND, OREGON – FEBRUARY 09: Duncan Robinson #55 of the Miami Heat reacts during the final seconds of play in the fourth quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers during their game at Moda Center on February 09, 2020 in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Age: 27

Fit: 9/10

Reliability: 9.5/10

Attainability: 9/10

Win-Now Player with some upside

Overall Rating: 8/10

Our next Heat player has caused plenty of debate dating back to the middle of February. Should you pay Duncan? Is his cap hold worth bringing back? As is the case with most of the wings on this list, it all depends on the price and what other moves are made alongside. I think Duncan is an incredible shooter that can be schemed out of playoff series like many one-dimensional shooters before him. He still has plenty to improve on, and maybe that potential is enticing enough to sign for 18 million a year. To me, it’s about what other moves would be made in addition to a possible 15-18mil a year deal. If that’s the only big move you’re making, it’s a failed offseason.

It’s going to be interesting to see which way Miami operates with a player that seems to be the focal point of their offense at times (sometimes to their detriment.) There is also the possibility Duncan can be used in a sign-and-trade scenario to acquire a player(s) that would improve the rest of the roster. To me, he is a luxury, as most sharpshooters have proven to be if the roster around him is good enough. Miami must make their roster better to unleash his luxury or risk more of the same stagnation.

Nicolas Batum (UFA):

Age: 32

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 7/10

Attainability: 7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 9/10

No one could have imagined Batum returning to his Portland form after such a chaotic tenure in Charlotte. He became the perfect wing for the Los Angeles Clippers in an instant. Sliding into his role perfectly as the connecter on offense and a solid defensive player with intuitive rotations and pre-rotations. Batum has shown a willingness to play the 4 if asked, and his age isn’t as much of a red flag as you’d think. Depending on how Miami fills out the roster at the top, they should keep an eye on Batum’s price. He might have played himself out of both Miami and Los Angeles’s price range, but he’s worth being alert for.

Josh Hart (RFA):

Age: 26

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 8/10

Attainability: 3/10

Win-Now Player with some upside

Overall Rating: 9/10

If “plug and play” had a face, it would be a large picture of Josh Hart smiling. He fits on to so many rosters, including Miami’s. He’s a solid enough shooter, a pretty good defender, and he does all the little things you need from your role players. He’s a younger version of Batum in this sense. He can play small spurts at the 4 but is best used as a 3 and even a big 2 guard. His two-way ability makes it that he is an easy plug alongside Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.

The obvious large hurdle for Miami is Hart’s restricted free agency. New Orleans has been said to love Hart and wants to keep him there for the long term. Miami’s only hope is that between now and August 2nd that the relationship sours quite a bit.

 

You know what time it is — it’s the rapid-fire segment! You might see a few familiar names here and there.

Alec Burks: It should be interesting to see what sort of deal Burks demands in the market. He’s a microwave-type scorer and can give some excellent bursts of offensive basketball. I don’t think he’ll settle for a low-level deal and should fetch something from a team looking for bench scoring.

Jeff Green: Jeff has made a career of being a solid wing player that knows his role and is willing to adapt to the role the teams need. He’s been on minimum deals for the past handful of years and would be worth a look.

Justise Winslow: It would be surprising if Memphis were to pick up his option, and that’s not something anyone saw coming 2 years ago. I wouldn’t mind a buy-low deal for the former player, but it’s hard to see Miami and Winslow reuniting after a messy breakup still fresh on both minds.

Kent Bazemore: Bazemore can be quite an infuriating player. If you pulled your hair out at Mario Chalmers, you’d pull your skin out with Kent. He should be a smart veteran player, but he does not live up to the billing.

Solomon Hill: Bring back the legend on a minimum deal!

Wayne Ellington: It’s still surprising how Detroit didn’t trade or waive Ellington at the deadline last season, considering his contract situation. Nevertheless, teams looking for cheap shooting off the bench will be looking at the former Heat player. Both parties left on good terms and have had nothing but praise for one another since their split. I don’t think anyone would mind a vet minimum reunion.

Alex Caruso: A solid backup guard who plays excellent defense will always garner interest from Miami. The Lakers might be keen on retaining Caruso, but there will be plenty of eyes on his situation in the final few days of free agency.

Doug McDermott: Doug has quietly turned himself into an excellent paint scorer. He shot 67.7% on 5 attempts a game on shots within 5ft. For comparison, Luka Doncic was at 66% on 4.8 attempts. He’s always been a pretty good shooter, so if Robinson were to leave or get traded, McDermott would be a decent cheaper backup.

Andre Iguodala: Yeah, I don’t think Andre’s coming back. He’s definitely a Plan Z guy, and I imagine he’ll get a deal in Golden State to retire into the San Francisco Sunset.

Reggie Bullock: Another Wayne Ellington type of player with a bit more size. I imagine he’ll have some loyalty to NY due to his best year coming with the Knicks.

Torrey Craig: A Sioux Falls Skyforce legend would definitely not be a bad pickup for cheap. He’s a nice piece off the bench that had a good bounce back in Phoenix after a rough go at it in Milwaukee. He’s always been a good energy guy who can knock down a corner 3 and would be a younger Ariza-like option.

Tyler Johnson: Let’s list off another former Heat player for the fun of it. A reunion for a small deal with Tyler wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Tyler’s always been a great teammate, and his shooting has gotten better since his last few Heat years.

 

Thanks again for reading Part 2 of the Free Agency series. I’ll be back to cover the frontcourt options of the class next week as we inch closer to August 2nd.

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

 

What’s the Real Value of Miami’s Duncan Robinson?

To say the 2020-2021 season did not go as the Miami Heat planned would be an understatement. Fresh off an NBA Finals appearance, and I do mean fresh off as they were just two months removed, the Heat battled injuries and Covid issues en route to a sixth-place finish in the East and a first-round exit. That means Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg have an advanced start on putting their offseason plan into motion.

 

One of the first orders of business is what to do about 6’7 sharpshooter Duncan Robinson. The third-year man out of Michigan is at the end of his rookie contract that made him an extreme bargain at just $1.6 million last season. The Heat will assuredly offer him a qualifying offer of $4,736,102 this offseason making him a restricted free agent. The question on a lot of minds is what is Robinson’s value and what will his market look like come late summer.
In a year marred by absences for the rest of the roster, Robinson played and started all 72 games for the Heat. He took a small setback in points per game from 2019-2020 from 13.5 to 13.1, but saw considerable dips in other key shooting areas. From last year to this, Robinson’s field goal percentage fell from 47.0 to 43.9, his three-point percentage from 44.6 to 40.8, and his free throws from 93.1 down to 82.7.
Much of those dips can be attributed to a very taxing last calendar year. Many of the league’s star players missed time, felt fatigue, and even the defending-champion Lakers had to play in the play-in games before getting trounced in the first round by the Suns. All that to say, context is important when evaluating anyone this season.
Loading
Loading...
Even despite some falls from the year before, Robinson stacked up very well with other sharpshooters in the NBA. The only guys to average more than Robinson’s 3.5 three-point field goals made per game were Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Buddy Hield, and CJ McCollum. That is pretty great company to keep. Some may read that and figure Robinson is on that list due strictly to being a high-volume shooter. Out of the 15 players who shot at least eight three-pointers per game, only four shot above 40 percent from deep: Curry (42.1), Zach LaVine (41.9), Robinson (40.8), and McCollum (40.2).
Robinson is known across the NBA is an elite shooter, but what goes under-the-radar is his improvement on the defensive end of the floor. Last season, he was third on the Heat (behind Jimmy Butler and Victor Oladipo) in defensive win shares at 0.113, which was also good enough for 35th in the entire association. He also had a defensive rating of 108.3, which was better than guys like Kawhi Leonard, Jrue Holiday, Russell Westbrook, Bam Adebayo, Oladipo, and Draymond Green. That’s not to say he is a better defender than the names listed, rather to prove his value cannot just be limited to his shot.

******
So where does that leave Robinson in terms of contract value? I ran through 10 players who for one reason or another drew parallels to Robinson: Joe Ingles, Gary Trent Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr., Davis Bertans, Fred Van Vleet, Devonte’ Graham, Joe Harris, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Evan Fournier, and Malik Beasley. Everyone in the group made at least 2.6 threes per game and shot at least 36 percent from beyond the arc last year. All 11 also average at least 36 percent from three for their careers, as well.
Out of the group, Robinson ranked fourth in three-point percentage last year, and is first on the list for his career. Only Beasley averaged as many threes made per game last year (both at 3.5), with no one coming close to Robinson’s 3.3 per game average for his career. Of course that last part is no surprise as he holds the record for the fastest player to 500 threes in NBA history. His 13.1 ppg in 2020-2021 was only higher than Ingles, Bertans, and Fournier, but his 12.3 for his career is the fourth-highest behind just Fournier, Hardaway Jr., and Graham.
On the defensive side, Ingles had the highest DEF WS ranking of the group at 16, followed by Graham at 24. Robinson’s 35th puts him third, and considerably higher than some on the list. For example: Hardaway Jr. was 202, Fournier 208, Beasley 295, and Trent Jr. all the way at 363.
For comparison sake on salaries, here is each player’s most-recent contract, the year it was signed, and their age when they signed it:
Ingles: Four-year, $52 million signed in 2017 when he was 29, though he has since added a one-year extension to take him through 2021-2022.
Hardaway Jr: Four-year, $70.95 million in 2017 when he was 25.
Bertans: Five-year, $80 million in 2020 when he was 28.
Van Vleet: Four-year, $85 million in 2020 when he was 26.
Harris: Four-year, $75 million in 2020 when he was 29.
Bogdanovic: Four-year, $72 million in 2020 when he was 28.
Fournier: Five-year, $85 million in 2016 when he was 23.
Beasley: Four-year, $60 million in 2020 when he was 24.
Loading
Loading...
Graham (26-years-old) and Trent Jr. (22) are in the same boat as Robinson as their rookie deals are expiring this offseason. That puts all of the other between $13 million and $21.25 per year, with the majority coming around the $17-18 million per annum mark. Robinson is in the middle of the pack at 27 years of age, older than most when coming into his first marquee contract.
That means the reasonable expectation for someone like Robinson should have a floor of around $16 million with a ceiling of a little over $20 million when drawing comparisons. Many have looked to Harris’s deal when he re-signed with the Nets last offseason as a potential barometer. The two are very comparable statistically on offense, with Robinson holding a statistical edge on defense.
Will Miami look to invest that kind of money into Robinson is another question. After going undrafted in 2018, he signed a two-way deal with Miami and the Sioux Falls Skyforce before blossoming into an every-night starter just a year later. Riley & Co. have shown loyalty to its homegrown projects in the past such as Tyler Johnson and to a degree Hassan Whiteside (who started with the Kings before falling into basketball purgatory until making it back to the Skyforce and Heat).
While the others did not work out in Miami’s favor, the front office has been extremely high on Robinson. In the last year, Dan Le Batard said he heard conversations within the organization they believe Robinson’s ceiling could be as high as Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson. When comparing the two, Robinson scored ahead of Thompson in 3PM and 3P% in their last full-season (2020-2021 for Robinson and 2018-2019 for Thompson), and 3PM and 3P% for their careers. Robinson ranks even further in those categories ahead of Thompson when you compare his third and first three seasons against Thompson’s third and first three. Thompson is considered to be an elite wing defender, a leg up over Robinson.
Robinson is still not at Thompson heights to this point, and no one would argue against that, even Duncan himself. What is interesting is his potential, and when or if Miami believes he can reach that point given that he is already 27. Shooters are being paid at a premium as the league evolves, with the former Michigan product figuring to have no shortage of suiters.
Will teams with lots of cap space such as the Knicks, Spurs, or Mavericks come calling? Four of the names on the list, including Fournier, Hardaway Jr., Graham, and Trent Jr. will all be on the market this summer to one degree or another. Will one sign first then set the market for the others? Does giving Robinson a healthy extension preclude Miami from long-term flexibility, something that is always at a premium in that front office?
All of that will be answered later this summer as Riley and Elisburg decide just how much Miami runs on Duncan.
*****

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

Ranking Every Miami Heat Free Agency Target: Part 1

A look at who Miami should or shouldn’t look to sign and how they’d fit on the roster moving forward.

 

The sun is shining as Summer has officially started in the northern hemisphere. We can feel the heat, but we’re all missing the Heat while watching the NBA playoffs unfold. These unpredictable and chaotic games haven’t been enough to satisfy the appetite of the fanbase. The fans have been fantasizing and photoshopping every possible player with a Heat jersey. If “we move” is the saying, the fanbase has been like a nomad moving every way possible.

I will try to nourish the unrelenting hunger for movement by giving a quick rundown of every possible Free Agent that may or may not be on the team’s radar. It’ll be a little different, however. I’ll be giving a ranking on every player of 1-10 based on a myriad of categories that will range from age, fit, and health reliability. Going over if the player is a “win now” or “upside” acquisition. Each list of players in this series will be going through Ball Handlers, Wings, Bigs, etc. So enough talk, let’s have some fun!

Ball Handlers:

For this portion of the preview, we’ll be looking at guys who would be under the traditional “point guard” role but also ones who play best when they’re breaking down defenses with a quick dribble. We all witnessed how much Miami could have used a guy to break down a defense to set up Bam Adebayo. But, unfortunately, no one could pressure the rim and cause rotations unless you were Jimmy Butler on the roster last season. So what options will be available for Miami to fill that void left behind Goran Dragic’s aging body? Well, let’s start with a familiar name linked to Miami all of last season.

Kyle Lowry (UFA)

Age: 35

Fit: 10/10

Reliability: 7.5/10

Attainability: 9.7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 10/10

Kyle Lowry’s obviously been on the minds of every Heat fan through most of the season and even as soon as the season ended. And for a good reason. Kyle is the type of player that Miami needed throughout the season. A three-level scorer who put pressure on the rim and set up others while picking his spots. Lowry is the most “plug-and-play” free agent on this list. Despite the age, I think Miami should look to acquire him any way they can. And they’ll have plenty to work with given that they can offer him what he’d want. Not to forget the Jimmy Butler friendship that has cultivated for the past handful of years. The human nature aspect can’t be understated in all of this. But there is also a possibility that it works against Miami. He could decide to work his way to Philadelphia, where he’s from. That involves a lot more hurdles for the Sixers that wouldn’t arise with Miami. Most Heat fans have operated under the assumption he’ll sign with them but proceed with cautious optimism.

 

DeMar DeRozan (UFA)

Age: 32

Fit: 4/10

Reliability: 8.5/10 (remember this is health-related)

Attainability: 7.5/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 5/10

DeMar DeRozan is without question a bucket and a problem, as the kids say. He was one of the best isolation scorers based on Points Per Possession. He’s done all this while improving his passing and becoming a Point Forward at this point in his career. DeMar also is, by all accounts, a great teammate and human being. Having said all that, I really don’t see this being the choice Miami should make for their big splash acquisition. You may ask, “well, how about a small splash?” Even then, I don’t think this move is what the Heat should go out of their way to accomplish. DeRozan does a lot of the same things Jimmy Butler does for Miami. The redundancy is too much for my liking overall. He’s also a player who still doesn’t have a reliable spot-up jumper and requires the ball in his hands a considerable amount to be productive. I’m not even going to bring up the playoff numbers. He also might be looking to get more years somewhere else where this could be his final large and lengthy payday.

 

Mike Conley (UFA)

Age: 33

Fit: 9/10

Reliability: 7/10

Attainability: 8.5/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

Mike Conley was one of the best stories of last season for a lot of basketball fans. He finally got that All-Star notch to his belt that eluded him for so long. He helped the Jazz on their way to a 1 seed and provided secondary ball handling with Donovan Mitchell at his side. Conley is almost a diet version of Kyle Lowry overall. The fit would be very smooth and provide another player that can collapse a defense and punish rotations. There are some yellow (not red) flags when it comes to Conley, however. He did have a rough season prior that could be attributed to his trouble with getting fully healthy. The veteran point guard also had a rough end in terms of health this past season and postseason. So the injury history is there, but the fit would be undeniable.

 

Lonzo Ball (RFA)

Age: 23

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 9.5/10

Attainability: 5.5/10

Upside Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

We’ve reached our first restricted free agent on this list and one of my favorite ones at that. I’m the biggest Lonzo cheerleader here at 5 Reasons, and if anyone says otherwise, they are lying. While listed as a point guard, Lonzo is far superior when used like a secondary creator instead of an initiator. He still struggles to really get to the rim and break down defenders throughout a game. But he’s 23, and you can see how much he can grow when put into the right environment. His 3 point shot has already come along faster than even I thought it would. The problem is how much Miami will be willing to offer and if other teams will outbid them. He’s a young player that many other teams, including the Pelicans, would be willing to pay. I expect he’ll be one of the last big names signed during Free Agency, as it seems to go with RFAs.

 

Dennis Schroeder (UFA)

Age: 27

Fit: 6.5/10

Reliability: 8/10

Attainability: 6.5/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 6/10

We now get to a player that I’m not particularly high on, to say the least. But, theoretically, Dennis should give you the things you missed last season. He’s a good defender who CAN pressure the rim with his speed and has gained a decent 3 point shot. That’s the problem with Schroeder; he’s much better in theory than actual practice. He falls in love with himself a little too much and isn’t as malleable as the rest of the ball handlers on this list. The asking price might also be a little too much than the Heat would be willing to offer. He’s more of a Plan D in terms of what they should be looking for this offseason.

 

Spencer Dinwiddie (UFA)

Age: 28

Fit: 6.5/10

Reliability: 6/10

Attainability: 5/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 6.5/10

Dinwiddie is an interesting player to watch this free agency. However, his value might be foggy with an ACL injury that he’s working his way back from this offseason. As a result, teams will be reluctant to give him a huge contract and settle for a short 2-year deal if the market plays out like I think it will. I don’t think Miami will be one of the teams anxious for his decision. They certainly have space, but I imagine they’d rather give that money to Duncan Robinson. He’s a good 3 level scorer, but not one Miami needs to catapult them to where they want to go.

 

Victor Oladipo (UFA)

Age: 28

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 3/10

Attainability: 10/10

Win-Now Player/Upside-ish

Overall Rating: 6/10

We’ve reached our first current Heat player on this list, and it’s an interesting one, to say the least. But, unfortunately, we only got a small glimpse of what Oladipo would have given the team if he had stayed healthy. The defense was there, as we all expected. He was getting to the rim and didn’t need a screen to do it. He would also make it a priority to get Bam Adebayo the ball. The perfect fit! Well, the injuries have another story to tell. Injuries ruin everything, don’t they? The only thing the injury will do is allow the Heat to offer a one-year “prove it” contract to Oladipo that is reasonably priced. The upside of this would be that you have one of the best value contracts if he were to get healthy and back to a semblance of old Vic. Unfortunately, I don’t think there will be a ton of teams lined up to offer him quite the money he turned down in Houston. But if they do, Miami will more than likely let him go. Wherever he ends up, I’ll be rooting for him to get healthy.

Chris Paul (PO/UFA)

Age: 36

Fit: 10/10

Reliability: 8/10

Attainability: 2/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 10/10

Remember everything I said about Kyle Lowry’s fit? Well, apply that to Chris Paul but make it midrange instead of free throws. Not even 2 years ago would I have expected to see his reliability be this high? He may be older, but he seems to have found a way to keep his body going in a way every player approaching 40 can dream of. The big problem for Miami is that it will take quite a bit to pry him away from Phoenix. If the Suns were to win the title, it would be nearly impossible. It was reported that Paul would turn down his player option in hopes of getting a longer deal for a decent bag in return. Miami could put a decent offer on the table, but the emotional aspect and potential deal the Suns could offer might trump that. Chris Paul will elude the Heat once again, much to the fanbase’s dismay.

 

Kendrick Nunn (RFA, Miami owns Bird Rights)

Age: 26

Fit: 6/10

Reliability: 8/10

Attainability: 6.5/10

Upside Player?

Overall Rating: 5/10

Miami has seen what Kendrick Nunn is, and I think they’re done with his services. Miami may have looked at the playoffs to see which players are 16 game players and which are 82 game players. Nunn is a nice scorer who’ll get you some buckets throughout a season but doesn’t seem to strike me as a guy the Heat will go out of their way to retain. The attainability would be much lower if Miami didn’t have his Bird Rights. I expect to see him on a team that’s looking to build their youth next season.

 

We’re going to do some rapid-fire nominees for this last cluster of players that could be nabbed for a mid-level type of deal.

Cam Payne: Young, exciting, and much-improved backup in Phoenix. He’ll be a hot commodity for teams looking for depth. I expect the Suns to retain him with his Early Bird Rightsintact. Keep shooting sideways, Cam.

Ish Smith: A veteran who’ll more than likely ask for a minimum deal from whoever will have him on the roster. It feels like the man has been on every team. Could I see Miami adding him on a minimum deal? I can’t see why not. Gotta bring in the RSHKs sometimes.

Jeff Teague: No.

Elfrid Payton: Want a backup point guard that does nothing that well? Well, you could enjoy the Elfrid Payton experience for as little as no money this offseason!

Kris Dunn: Defense! But he doesn’t do much else. Can’t even get on the court, sadly.

Derrick Rose: I expect him to re-sign with NY for money Miami will not entertain to offer. It seems like a place he wants to retire, as well.

Dennis Smith Jr: A young project you could maybe take a flier on. His dunks are cool!

 

Thanks for reading part 1 of this series as we get closer to Free Agency. Stay tuned next week for part 2, where I’ll be going over the wings of the class.

How the Heat Get Past Giannis and Crew Again  

Some keys for the first round series…

 

Duncan Robinson Staying Out of Foul Trouble.

This series is massive for Duncan Robinson and him showing to the Heat he can stay on the floor in the playoffs defensively. Duncan is a restricted free agent this summer and will be seeking 17-20 million per season. Offensively he is worth it with all he does for Miami’s movement and creating for others that way. Defensively he has improved tremendously this season, but the playoffs are different, and time will tell if he is playable late in games on that end. Many games this season Duncan has picked up two quick fouls in the first quarter and that takes him out of the game early and he struggles to get his rhythm back. Many of those fouls are touchy soft fouls that many other players in the league wouldn’t be called for but Duncan must avoid those. 

****

Bam Being Assertive Early & Often. 

Jimmy didn’t play in any of the three regular season matchups, Bam only attempted a total of 29 field goals in those three games and only 13 free throw attempts. Thankfully for Miami Jimmy is healthy now but even with Jimmy playing Bam needs to be looking to score. Milwaukee will be playing their drop coverage and Brook Lopez will be guarding Bam a lot. Bam must make them pay no matter if that’s hitting the mid-range jump shots or going to the rim and finishing or getting fouled and shooting free throws. In the series vs the Bucks last year he averaged 15.8 combined shot attempts and free throws per game. That number needs to be much closer to 25 in this series if Miami wants to win. As Jimmy always talks about in his press conferences Bam has so much potential and you see it in so many ways. He’s an elite defender guarding anyone from point guard to center, running the offense creating for others and it’s time to see him be more consistent and aggressive as a scorer. 

 

 

******

Kendrick Nunn Attacking the Drop Coverage.

Kendrick Nunn has had a roller coaster of a season going from starting at Point Guard to being out of the rotation. The Bucks are a matchup that Nunn has always been able to exploit in his career. Last year in the bubble Nunn dealt with some personal issues as discussed on the Five On The Floor podcast, he was still most productive vs the Bucks compared to any other team in last years playoffs prior to Goran Dragic’s injury. Nunn averaged over 13 minutes a game in that series and in the Pacers series only appeared in one game and in the Celtics series only played in the first three games of that series. Nunn has scored 10 or more points in 15 of the 18 games since Victor Oladipo suffered a season ending injury. Five of those games Nunn scored over 20 points including 31 vs the Bucks in their final regular season matchup. Nunn will have the midrange shots available in this series that he likes to take. If he hits those shots it will open up things for the Heat’s offense and could flip the series in Miami’s direction. 

 

*******

Playoff Jimmy Doing What He Does. 

Jimmy Butler is often referred to as simply Playoff Jimmy in the playoffs. Heat fans got a great look at that in the bubble. Jimmy during the regular season is still a great player but during the regular season he’s rounding his body into form to get ready for the playoffs. He is able to lock in on one opponent over two weeks and his preparation shows. Last year the Bucks had two-time reigning MVP and Defensive Player of The Year Giannis Antetokounmpo and yet Jimmy Butler was the best player on the floor. Jimmy wants to play the best and he wants to be matched up with the best in the game. During the fourth quarter vs the Bucks in the bubble Jimmy was seen yelling at the Bucks bench “He can’t guard me!” after finishing over Giannis. If Jimmy plays like he typically does in the playoffs and gets the help needed from others you have to like Miami’s chances to defeat Milwaukee on the big stage again. 

 

One prediction I will make is that Milwaukee native Tyler Herro will have a game in Milwaukee where he is the difference in a pivotal road win. Shoutout to Five On The Floor’s own Greg Sylvander who always has the guts, Heat in Five. 

Loading
Loading...

*****

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows.com or call 954-791-8882

Heat vs. Bucks: The First Round Matchup Everyone Deserved

An NBA regular season filled with tons of chaos, uncertainty, and constant injury problems has come to its end. We arrived at the only logical place a constantly illogical season could come to — a first-round matchup featuring the two teams that clashed in a series that caught many by surprise in the Orlando Bubble last year. A series in which Miami thoroughly outplayed and embarrassed a Milwaukee team that looked like a deer in headlights.

The soul of the Bucks was removed and eaten alive by the Heat and Jimmy Butler. Miami would reach the NBA Finals in a run that captivated the fans in such an indescribable way. It would lead to an offseason filled with questions and doubts about the future for the Bucks and their fans. Two divergent paths paved by an unexpected series. Milwaukee would attempt to answer these questions by putting all the chips on the table for what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

The Bucks traded for Jrue Holiday in a move that screamed of understandable desperation to ensure Giannis Antetokounmpo’s stay in Cream City. The gamble paid off as Giannis would go on to sign a Super Max Contract later that offseason. For Miami, it was much less drastic with some minor signings here and there. The big move they did make was giving Bam Adebayo a max contract of his own.

The regular season felt as if both teams were tuning up and training for this very moment. Imagine a Rocky-like montage, only it lasted 5+ months, and if Miami’s side included even more weights (IE: a shorter turnaround + protocols) holding them down. Everyone on the outside wondered where it would all lead towards in the end. Much like a Rocky movie, the end game features a rematch scripted to perfection.

We could have gotten a Heat-Hawks series or a Bucks-Knicks matchup — but what fun would that have been? Those same divergent paths once forged have crossed each other again. This series will have either made this season worth it for one fan base or lead into another offseason filled with questions needing answers. If Miami loses, there might get an empty feeling out of “what was this year all for?” If Milwaukee falters, it could lead to the most extended look in the mirror that Giannis and the franchise will ever encounter. The same point LeBron James and the Cavaliers had after losing to the Boston Celtics in 2010.

The difference being that Giannis has already decided to be in Milwaukee for the long term. More heads will roll, and I imagine those would include Coach Mike Budenholzer and maybe a prominent player. Could that player be Khris Middleton? I’m not advocating for that, but the front office might see it a different way, especially if Middleton has a tough series.

But the feeling of pure ignorance and bliss that Miami would get from a win would fuel the supposed “Cocky Heat Fan” for eternity. A victory that would make this season worth something when it looked like all was lost. While this may seem like such a small victory, for a team that’s dealt with as much as the Heat have, it’s bigger than that. Things really do change when circumstances throw different curveballs at you.

The win would also push back at all the “bubble fluke” talk throughout the past year. And for Milwaukee, they would have conquered their demons and somewhat justified the offseason moves in only one round. These types of stakes make the playoffs so fun, and we should be grateful to get it this early. Everyone will get more answers in this series than they would have gotten with the other alternatives.

It won’t only be the teams and fans getting and giving these answers, but for some individual players, like I mentioned earlier with Khis Middleton. Giannis will find out if it was right of him to put this much trust in the team when he could have waited until he was a Free Agent to test the waters. Bam Adebayo will have another opportunity to show everyone why he will be a force to be reckoned with for the next decade. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro can show everyone that it wasn’t the bubble that made them such deadly snipers from 3. Jrue Holiday and Goran Dragic with an opportunity to swing the series as the x-factors they’ve been dubbed.

Kendrick Nunn out to prove to the front offices that they should stick around past this season and that the playoffs last year were an aberration. We’ll all get to see so many of these storylines unfold in a series that will be the most fun in the Eastern Conference. Personally, I’m very excited to see the chess match that Erik Spoelstra and Jimmy pull on the Bucks and Mike Budenholzer. We’ve seen the adjustments and lengths Coach Spo is willing to go to throughout the course of a playoff series. Budenholzer may have shown a willingness to do new things during the regular season, but these are the playoffs. It’s an entirely new kind of animal in comparison. And we all know the mind games Jimmy Butler can create to throw you off balance. I look forward to seeing what he has in store this time around.

Milwaukee played everyone in their last regular season to lock up this matchup, indirectly saying they’re ready for the Heat. Miami squandered a couple of games they should have captured during the regular season but played their best basketball during the last month and a half to ensure their place. These are the beds that both these teams made themselves, and now they’ll have to lie in them. Well, more like fight in them to make sure someone gets a good night’s rest.

The basketball is going to be amazing, chippy, and filled with memorable moments. Everyone will get the answers they seek. There’s no waiting around for the second round of the conference finals. The time is now to see what they’re made of. No one flinched when this matchup was on the horizon. Now we’ll see who blinks first when it comes to the actual games. In a season that felt so empty, this is an opportunity to make it feel slightly filled. The NBA’s first-round series are rarely as compelling as this one will be. Let’s bask in the fun that’s about to happen in front of us.

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows.com or call 954-791-8882

Chris Bosh: Unique, Dynamic… and a Hall of Famer

Dynamic tends to describe the action of events in the reactionary. We view, we process and we describe. Christopher Wesson Bosh never waited to be described as dynamic. He just was.

Over the course of a 12 year career he defined himself by being indefinable. Iconic moments and legendary stories laid in the wake of his dominance, and while he did dominate the basketball court, he also dominated our fascination. It was Chris’s world, and we were just along for the ride. So lets take one more trip with him back in time and recap five of my favorite Bosh moments:

 

1. Game 7 June 9th 2012 Eastern Conference Finals — Heat/Celtics

When a dunk in Game 1 of the Indiana series sidelined him, surgery must of been on his mind, after watching Mike Miller suffer a similar injury earlier in the season. You would have never known it was though. Chris stayed positive, and that positivity was rewarded with a MRI that reflected no tear in the abdominal muscle. He would return, it was just a matter of how, and when.

While Chris rehabbed and began treatment, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra had to adjust. We all remember the “stare” from LeBron James, and what he did to the Celtics in TD Garden to save the season, and possibly Spoelstra’s tenure, in Game 6. But it wasn’t just him. Bosh was on the floor, and he made an impact: 19 points, 8-for-10 from the floor and eight rebounds. The King of Dragons himself (favored nickname in china, no seriously!) played a critical role in holding Kevin Garnett to one of his worst games in the series, all while still playing in pain. 

 

2. Feb 7, 2007 — Orlando/Toronto 41 points

Bosh was already a 2-time all star, and that year was selected to the game with the 2nd most votes for a forward. On this night in the Air Canada Centre, the arena echoed with MVP chants, with a smile all over his face.

41 Points | 8 RBs | 3 AST | Bosh had arrived.

 

3. The Rebound — Game 6 2012 SAS/MIA  

One of my favorite tweets from Chris Bosh was sent on Jul 7, 2020. It quote-tweeted Jeff Eisenband, who asked to describe a favorite sports moment. Chris responded in customary fashion: “I got a rebound and made a pass.” So Chris. So everything he exemplified in a heat uniform. The constant pro, always deflecting, always lifting up his teammates. Ray Allen’s shot saved a season, but Chris Bosh’s rebound saved legacies: 13 men stand today with their hands a little heavier from rings because Chris did the thing he always did since entering the league. Gave maximum effort, and complete willingness to be the best teammate he can be.

Can you hear the Mike Breen call in your head too?



 

4. The Video-bombs…

Chris is a goofball, he understood the importance of levity to team chemistry. Since he was one of the more learnt, introspective men in the league, I must assume this videobombing was a calculated decision. What made some of those heat runs so entertaining and so damn enjoyable was the love that came across in his interactions with teammates. Specifically you knew that as the 27-game win streak was growing in 2012, so was the brotherhood, the camaraderie….and their title chances. Ill never forget those winner circle postgame interviews and I like to think, as much development happened there as on the practice court.

 

 

5. His Miami Superman Moment: Dec. 29 2013  in Portland

There’s something so iconic about LeBron rushing the court at Portland with a strained groin, to then take some shots at Chris’s chest before draping a cape over his shoulder. (In retrospect that probably had to hurt)

It’s easy to forget, after watching LaMarcus Aldridge play last year, but he was a dominant force at the time for the Portland Trail Blazers, a difficult task for any defender. Bosh’s 37 points may be the grabber, but the battle in the trenches with Aldridge was part of the story too. Aldridge put up 20 shots that night. The team continued to trust his offense and Bosh continued to trust his grit. Limiting Aldridge to 22 points on those attempts puts Miami at the end of the game to call up one play.

Spoelstra likely knew he needed to go the guy who had earned the moniker Big Shot Bosh. The problem was he wanted to tie, and Chris, wanted to win. The play that won the game was changed, because the player who always accepted the moment,saw the opportunity to write his own ending. The ball is inbounded from Norris Cole to Dwyane Wade, who bobbles slightly before driving to the basket, pulling Aldridge away, allowing Bsh to clear far behind the arc. The pass is made, the shot is fired, the rest is history.

Though with Chris Bosh, making history would become habit.

 

 

Ready or Not, The Miami Heat Are Arriving

The Miami Heat have experienced more than the usual ups and downs of a regular NBA season this year. And who could blame them with such irregular circumstances clouding this uncertain season? From the lowest points of starting Gabe Vincent for almost a week. To losing to shorthanded Clippers and Warriors teams in back-to-back games in February. The dark grey cloud of underperforming and the “bubble fluke” moniker looked as though it was starting to accumulate mass the further the season went on after a loss to the shorthanded Hawks in Atlanta.

Little did the fanbase know the team was slowly getting their rhythm together and smoothing the edges as they worked in Trevor Ariza and Dewayne Dedmon. The loss in Atlanta may still be frustrating, but it looks more like a hiccup than a reflection of what the team is starting to represent. After all of that work of building consistent habits — we’re witnessing the fruits of their labor come together now. The team you’re starting to see on the floor may have taken a while to get revved up, but it’s got a full tank of gas (unlike most of Florida) now and is ready for the race of the Postseason.

Those games in January where everything was as off-kilter as you can imagine didn’t help much. Neither did the roster’s construction that took until about a month ago to finally start making sense. Everyone was getting a late start into this unholy mess of a season. But now that the mess is clearing itself up by way of the trade deadline burden being gone, the PF spot filled up by Ariza, and the bench giving huge contributions. This team is finally resembling Miami Heat basketball.

Everyone has settled into and thriving in their respective roles at the perfect time. Jimmy and Bam are the 1-2 punch leading the charge. Kendrick Nunn has settled nicely as the starting guard playing within himself alongside them and giving timely baskets when he can. Duncan Robinson is not only hitting three-pointers at a nearly automatic level but has made amazing strides on the defensive end. The bench duo of Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro has been on fire since Tyler came back from his injury, shooting 57% from 3 with a +20 Net Rating. Dewayne Dedmon and Trevor Ariza have plugged those holes the team desperately needed while not taking any mess from anyone.

This is all everyone wanted to see shine through as the light at the end of the tunnel. Now we see the usual “March” run that Erik Spoelstra teams go through, only it’s slightly delayed due to the scheduling around this chaotic season. “I want to win. We just know what we’re capable of,” Jimmy Butler said after the blowout win against the 76ers. They know they’re starting to break the shackles of this covid season towards what could be another memorable postseason run.

The trials and tribulations of this year could have broken them. They just as easily could have said, “it’s not our year,” and packed it in like the Boston Celtics. The loss versus Atlanta might have been the final blow for any other team in their position, but they pushed through. Jimmy Butler gave them a kick in the pants they so desperately needed not too long ago, both on and off the floor. Their record since Butler’s returned from his Covid-related absence stands at 32-19, which is 4th best in the east during that span.

That kick that Jimmy gives is like that of a horse you never want to be on the wrong side of. You’re either riding with him, or you’re getting bucked off as swiftly as possible. And this Heat team looks like they’re ready to be the cavalry. This recent stretch has felt like them sending a message to the rest of the league that they’re not afraid of anything, anyone, and any team. Jimmy Butler said to TNT, “nobody intimidates us.”

It certainly looks that way when you watch that killer instinct start to return to them. Udonis Haslem’s game against the 76ers was the perfect encapsulation of the energy the team is manifesting right now. No fear only pure unwavering action, boss. They’re not afraid of a team led by Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. They have Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Not to mention a coach in Erik Spoelstra that knows what it takes to adjust throughout a playoff series. They’re going to throw everything and everyone imaginable at Philadelphia in a series should they meet.

Atlanta? New York? The lack of a homecourt advantage doesn’t scare them. They’re battle-tested, unlike those likely first-round opponents. Milwaukee? Sure they added Jrue Holiday, but that mental space Miami owns in their heads can’t be overlooked. I’m not saying this will be easy by any means. I’m not even guaranteeing a win for Miami either. But do you want to doubt a Jimmy Butler and Erik Spoelstra-led team to vanquish Giannis and Coach Budenholzer once again?

I’m not here to tell you Miami should be considered the favorites. But there’s a path here for them to get to the Conference Finals once again. As last year proved, a path is all they need as long as Jimmy Butler is the one leading them through it, no matter how treacherous it may seem. There’s no better guiding light.

And what a delicious dish it would be to serve to the bigger outlets and “bubble fluke” pushers than another deep playoff run. Do you think the guys in that locker room don’t hear those whispers themselves? We’re talking about a team filled with guys who have been counted out and misunderestimated numerous times. We’re in for a wild ride this postseason, and I would not have sounded this enthused only a month ago. As one of Jimmy Butler’s favorite singers, Taylor Swift, said, “these things will change. Can you feel it now?”

Erik Spoelstra never sacrificed throughout the year for a few cheap regular-season wins here and there. He stuck with his plan and now it’s paying off. Jimmy Butler is averaging the lowest minutes of his career thanks to this plan. That lift on his jumper looks as good as it ever has in his Miami tenure. Butler is more than ready to be fully unleashed on whichever opponent wants to try him. The offense looks like that well-oiled machine we’ve grown accustomed to. They’ve been a top 5 team in terms of offensive rating since April. Imagine telling that to someone not too long ago.

It may have been a bumpy right filled with plenty of unexpected stops, but this is what the fans have been waiting for. Everyone seems to have found their guts. Nothing is scarier than a Miami Heat team with rhythm, led by a top 2 Coach, a rested proven playoff superstar and a fear of no one. The team will take the battle to whoever stands in their way. I’m ready to watch them fight and to make their opponent never feel comfortable. I hope you’re ready too.

Dewayne Dedmon Revived a Dying Heat Bench

The death of the NBA’s traditional big man has been well documented for the past decade. Traditionalists have pointed to the league’s infatuation with the three-point line as the main culprit — as well as players not looking to score on the block like Tim Duncan or Hakeem Olajuwon. In reality, big men have adapted and come in so many different shapes and sizes. You have Nikola Jokic punishing guys on the inside with his lumbering post moves that feel like the world’s most violent pillow fight. But he also can step out to the three-point line and serve up a sweet jumper or dissect you with his passing on the elbows.

Then there’s Joel Embiid and his brute strength, touch, and array of moves mesmerizing from the low block in his own way. Even if you’re not in this elite class of Centers, there’s still room for you in today’s game. You can be a rim runner who provides rim protection or a stretch five coming off the bench for spacing. This is a league where there is room for Rudy Gobert, Nerlens Noel, Dwight Powell, and Kelly Olynyk.

But for the Miami Heat this season, it’s been a roller coaster of finding any semblance of a solid backup Center. The only player who that could have been, in Kelly Olynyk, was forced to start alongside Bam Adebayo due to the team’s lack of Power Forward at the time. Chris Silva and Precious Achiuwa were far too up and down (mostly down) for any semblance of a steady bench big.

After the trade that sent away the long-haired Canadian, Miami’s search would get even dicier. Nemanja Bjelica was seen as the obvious plug-in for Kelly. But the Belly Olynyk experiment failed in only a week. Precious Achiuwa was called out of the bullpen once again by Erik Spoelstra. Those minutes went as well as you would guess. Would Coach Spo and the team find that solid backup Center that seemingly every team in the league has? Where would their Nerlens Noel/Dario Saric/Marc Gasol/Naz Reid come from?

No one could have guessed that the answer would come in the form of a player who hadn’t seen an NBA court for over a year. Dewayne Dedmon arrived in Miami and secured the role with only a couple of auditions under his belt. The name wasn’t flashy like Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin, or LaMarcus Aldridge at the time. Everyone was skeptical if he would even get playing time when the team inked him for the rest of the season. It seemed to the public Miami had only done the signing to avoid being fined for not having enough players on the roster.

But as always, Erik Spoelstra and the staff knew something we didn’t. They had a plan for the 7-feet tall big man with a 7’4 wingspan. They worked him in little by little until he had earned the minutes and trust from Coach Spo. The activity on the offensive glass was akin to Brian Grant in his heyday. The ability to set such solid screens and give the guards even more room to operate despite not being a spacer. Dedmon offered legitimate vertical spacing off the bench that was reminiscent of Chris “Birdman” Andersen.

He was filling in a role the Heat and their fans had yearned for so long—a backup center allowing you to rest your star in Bam Adebayo while simultaneously giving you a boost. They’re no longer buying time with their backup big. The team is making actual runs with their bench units — which were foreign to the team for most of the year. Dedmon has allowed a much better balance all around and given roster flexibility to the team as a whole. It isn’t as important as having a healthy Victor Oladipo, but it’s still important for a team dealing within the margins like Miami is doing.

Dedmon has been malleable in terms of fitting in with so many of the Heat’s important perimeter players. The Net Ratings of lineups featuring Dedmon with the rest of the regulars include a +27.2 with Jimmy Butler, +31.1 with Trevor Ariza, +26.7 with Kendrick Nunn, and a +18 with Goran Dragic. That last number is important because Dedmon and Dragic will see many of their minutes together for the rest of the season. Goran has talked about their chemistry and how hard Dedmon plays while still being really smart in his limited minutes. It’s given him a pick and roll partner who sets punishing screens and allows him to operate in more space.

They’re still working out the kinks, as Goran admitted in a recent postgame presser. But if this is what tinkering looks like, then it’s a good sign for what it’ll look like once they seriously start gelling. While the defense hasn’t been as impressive as the other end — it is still miles ahead of where the team’s bench was not too long ago. Dedmon’s size and wingspan are more of a deterrent to players who get into the lane. Bjelica and Achiuwa weren’t providing that same juice.

Dedmon has also shown the staff that he is willing to learn different coverages and adapt to those styles, whether coming out and blitzing or dropping back. He is much better at meeting the offensive player at the screen than Bjelica was while providing the necessary time for his teammates to recover and getting back to his initial man. He’s a vet who has seen every coverage in the book and won’t hesitate to adjust to whatever the team needs from him.

Everyone wanted the big flashy name during the transaction period a couple of months back. The DeMarcus Cousins of the world were constantly brought up as if they were the saviors of the season. The Miami Heat didn’t need a savior; they needed solid. They needed what the Washington Wizards had gotten when they swiped Daniel Gafford from the Chicago Bulls. The league is filled with so many rotation-level big men that could come in and give you a solid 15-20 minutes. Players that you don’t need to sign to big contracts because they’re easier to replace, in a way that the Running Back has become in the NFL.

The Heat finally found their Dion Lewis or James White after a search that looked like it would end in more Precious Achiuwa minutes. He may not start a game this season, but the productive change of pace he gives on a nightly basis was more than I expected him to give. The big man isn’t dead; it’s still around and playing a key role all around the league, as guys like Dedmon have demonstrated. It may not be flashy, but they’re getting the work done. Work that Miami has finally found getting done after so many applicants.