Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.
The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses
• Record: 36-20, 4th in the East (1-1)
• Offensive Rating: 112.0 (118.7)
• Defensive Rating: 108.7 (110.9)
• Net Rating: plus-3.3 (plus-7.8)
• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.6 (61.2)
• Pace: 99.58 (105.0)
• Time of Possession: 14.7 seconds (13.5)
Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)
Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
• Minutes: 12
• Offensive Rating: 131.0
• Defensive Rating: 85.7
• Net Rating: plus-45.3
• True-Shooting Percentage: 63.7
• Pace: 114.64
The Big Number: 57
The Bam Adebayo-Duncan Robinson partnership has been a revelation for the Heat’s 8th ranked offense. Adebayo’s ability to pass and screen, paired with Robinson’s ability to shoot off movement, makes for a natural fit. Most of their two-man dances come via dribble-handoff, burning teams that dare to employ drop coverage against them.
Adebayo has assisted on 57 Robinson threes, making them the NBA’s most profitable duo. The rest of the top five, via PBP Stats:
2) Damian Lillard to CJ McCollum, 53
3) Chris Paul to Danilo Gallinari, 49
4) LeBron James to Danny Green, 47
T-4) Jrue Holiday to JJ Redick, 47
Weekly Trends
1. Bam off the bounce
If it feels like Adebayo has been covered a ton in this space, it’s because he has been.
He has basically quintupled his drive volume from last season (0.8 to 3.9) while raising his efficiency from 38.7 percent to 59.6, via Second Spectrum tracking data.
You read that right: Bam’s conversion rate has skyrocketed nearly 21 percentage points while driving five times more than he did last year.
With teams catching on to his tendency to drive baseline, he’s started to counter with in-and-out dribbles and drives from the triple threat position. This jab-and-jam sequence against Tristan Thompson was absolutely filthy.
It’s not uncommon to see Bam take the ball up the floor. Thanks to the free-flowing nature of Miami’s offense, we’ve been treated to some impromptu pick-and-roll reps.
Very quietly, Bam has generated 53 points on 50 pick-and-roll possessions (1.06 PPP, passes included), via Synergy. If you thought the James Johnson-Goran Dragic inverted two-man game was fun, imagine what Bam-led pick-and-rolls are going to look like moving forward.
At this point, three-point shooting is the only hole in Bam’s offensive game. If his work in the Skills Competition is any indication*, that’ll probably come within a year.
*It shouldn’t be, but work with me here.
2. Unlocking Kelly Olynyk
With Meyers Leonard still on the mend with an ankle injury, the Heat have leaned more on Kelly Olynyk. It’s been an up-and-down season for him, to say the least. He struggled to adjust to Miami’s offensive shift to begin the year, which made his defensive shortcomings look even more glaring.
The Heat haven’t leaned on Olynyk’s improv work like they did last season. Instead, they’ve made more of an effort to utilize his shooting. Pick-and-pop bigs already serve as kryptonite against drop schemes. When you have a guy like Olynyk flying off flare screens, you’re putting even more strain on defenses.
First off, that’s a solid (if not slightly illegal) lead block from Kendrick Nunn. Olynyk gives the subtle shove, receives the pitch and fires in one fluid motion. It’s a guard-like sequence that he makes look easy.
Olynyk has only logged four (4) off-screen possessions this season, via Synergy. He’s scored nine points on 3-of-4 shooting, including that clip above. The Heat flow out of HORNS Flare all the time. Inverting that action for Olynyk is probably something they should go to more often.
3. Jae Crowder just can’t miss
We’re only working with a five-game sample, but Jae Crowder has been Miami’s most productive acquisition from their deadline deal. He’s defended well across both forward spots, and has mostly held his own against guards on switches.
That was expected, though. Crowder has been a serviceable-at-worst defender for most of his career. The real surprise of the Crowder Experience has been his three-point shooting.
Crowder is shooting a blistering 54.8 percent from deep on 6.2 attempts. Not only are those well above his career marks (33.7 percent, 4.2 attempts), he’s feasting on a diet of shots like these:
Since joining the Heat, Crowder is generating nearly 1.3 points per spot-up possession, and over 1.6 points per transition possession via Synergy. To put those numbers into perspective, Crowder has been a more efficient shooter than JJ Redick (1.09), and has scored at a more efficient rate than Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.12 PPP).
The regression is going to come at some point, but it’s hard not to be impressed with the shot-making Crowder has provided so far.
Set Play of the Week
The Sneak Attack
Sadly, I don’t have the technical name for this one. However, Miami’s opening set against the Cavs immediately caught my eye.
The possession kicks off with a pitch to Duncan Robinson on the right wing. Nunn attempts to set a down screen for Derrick Jones Jr, but his defender (Cedi Osman) is already hanging below the free throw line. He’s able to duck under the screen, though this is mostly decoy action.
Nunn pops back up to receive the ball from Robinson, kicking off a 1-5 pick-and-roll. This is the point where the positioning matters.
This is a left-flowing pick-and-roll, which is key for two reasons.
1) Nunn is driving to his dominant hand.
2) Adebayo is rolling right, which means the only defender that could “tag” him on the roll is Collin Sexton. Who is Sexton guarding? Only the most dangerous off-movement shooter in the league right now.
Sexton naturally drops for a second. He quickly realizes that Adebayo isn’t rolling to the basket. Adebayo cuts his roll short before setting a screen for Robinson to pop out to the top of the key.
All-Star Weekend was a busy one for the Miami Heat.
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were the headliners, becoming the first pair of Heat teammates since LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to grace the All-Star game floor.
Adebayo added a Skills Challenge trophy to his cabinet — and some money to Butler’s ongoing three-point tab. Between that and Butler ethering the Raptors, it’s safe to say the Heat stars showed out.
Beyond that, the Heat were able to put some of their “others” on display. Tyler Herro was set to play in the Rising Stars game, but an ank- er, foot — injury during Miami’s blow-out win over the 76ers knocked him out.
Kendrick Nunn was there to carry the mantle, scoring 16 points in Team USA’s 151-131 victory.
Duncan Robinson represented the Heat in the three-point contest, though his score (19) underwhelmed relative to his regular season success.
The winner of the weekend, as controversial as it may be, was Derrick Jones Jr. To say he entered the weekend confident would be a massive understatement.
Jones Jr. didn’t quite live up to his nothing-but-50s prediction, but he was able to bring the title home over Aaron Gordon. Not only did he rack up high scores in the contest, he was able to secure a shoe deal with Puma to cap off his weekend.
Now, the real fun starts. The Heat (35-19) have 28 games left to build up good habits and solidify their rotation. They’re currently the 4th seed — a fine place considering their competition, and in line with their preseason goals for home court advantage.
“We’re getting to the point of the season where the rubber’s kinda meeting the road,” Duncan Robinson tells Five Reason Sports over the weekend.
“We no longer want to be that ‘fun’ team or whatever. We want to push into that next level. With the playoffs on the horizon, our main focus is to position ourselves the best that we can.”
This also serves as an important stretch for the Heat’s young guys. The Heat need them for the playoff push, sure. But if we know anything about Pat Riley, it’s that he’ll push the chips to the middle of the table for a bonafide star.
The Heat are set to make splashes in each of the next two summers. If maneuvering is needed, some of the young pieces will be casualties, for lack of a better phrase.
With that, let’s take stock of the Heat’s young gunners.
The Heat love Herro, their bleep-you, guard-me-if-you-can rookie with some big moments under his belt. He’s been better than, um, some people have anticipated. His offensive feel, three-point shooting, intermediate touch, and pick-and-roll chops are positives already. As he continues to adjust to NBA speed and physicality, Herro should shine playing off the Butler-Adebayo combo.
The defense is a bit of a problem. His off-ball instincts are fine, but the lack of length and burst — lateral and vertical — limits his ceiling on the ball. Miami has been a better team with Herro on the bench. That isn’t a massive indictment — it’s normal for rookies — but his defense is worth monitoring.
Status: (virtually) untouchable
Herro has been taken off the table in trade talks. Bradley Beal, a “former” Heat target, is probably the worst player the Heat would consider trading Herro for.
In short, unless a top-10 player that is 28 or younger becomes available, Herro is going to be a member of the Heat.
Nunn kicked off the season on fire. He scored from all three levels offensively, and consistently blew up ball-screens on the other end. The makings of a two-way terror were on display; the Rookie of the Year award was heading to Miami.
Then, we hit November.
Nunn started getting back-cut. The missed passing windows become more egregious. The three-point shooting regressed a bit. He was still fine — good, by rookie standards — but some of the allure wore off.
Now, Nunn is working his way back from an Achilles injury. It’s been rough lately — 9.9 points with a 30/24/80 shooting split over his last seven games — but we shouldn’t lose sight of what Nunn is, and how far he’s come.
His three-level scoring chops are still legit. You can trust him to take the right shot against Drop coverage. His comfort around the elbows with jumpers or floaters will be important against teams like Philadephia. The game has slowed down a bit, evidenced by his moderate bump in assist-to-turnover ratio since December 1st (1.5 to 2.4).
Like Herro, Nunn is still a bit of a screen magnet defensively. It’s a bigger issue because he’s at the point of attack, and the Heat have been squishy on the interior. Him becoming a competent screen navigator is wildly important to his ceiling.
Status: important but movable
Nunn is the kind of secondary scorer the Heat need alongside Butler, who is more battering ram than pull-up artist. The Heat were also reportedly willing to include Nunn in a three-team deal that would’ve netted them Danilo Gallinari.
In short: Nunn is a prime candidate to be cashed in.
It’s important to note that there is no real attachment to Nunn; he was an end-of-season signing that has blown up more than anyone could’ve reasonably projected. He serves an important role, but selling high for an established guy isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Robinson is, at worst, a top five shooter in the NBA. He’s nearly automatic on catch-and-shoot looks, and is Ellington-esque as an off-movement shooter. The Heat leverage his marksmanship by involving him in countless dribble-handoffs, and using him as a low screener to flummox defenses.
Before the season, Erik Spoelstra said Robinson was one of the best shooters in the world, and that it was up to him to prove it.
It’s, uh, safe to say he’s proven it this season.
Status: important
Robinson is arguably Miami’s most important offensive player. Their offensive rating drops over seven points with Robinson on the bench. He’s their best weapon against drop coverage; his off-movement shooting via dribble-handoffs put defenses in impossible situations.
As good as Robinson is offensively, he’s just as much of a mess defensively. Teams have begun to pick on him more aggressively, and that will ramp up during the playoffs. The Heat desperately need to become average — or slightly below — to fully maximize him.
Even with that, it’s hard to imagine Robinson being expendable. He’s essentially a 6’8 Ellington with more passing chops. The Heat have the defenders to flank Robinson with — Butler, Adebayo, Andre Iguodala, and Jae Crowder to name a few. If Herro or Nunn hold their weight as on-ball defenders, the Heat can probably survive with Robinson as the only minus defender on the floor.
Miami’s confident high flyer finally has the hardware to solidify himself as the game’s most absurd dunker.
Jones Jr. is more than a dunker, though. He’s a prolific offensive rebounder, sneaky-good half-court finisher (1.29 PPP, 79th percentile via Synergy), and a bit of a terror defensively. We know what Jones Jr. does in Miami’s zone, but his on-ball defense has improved immensely from last season.
Jones Jr. still feels a bit incomplete offensively. His handle is improved, but still loose. The footwork on drives gets a bit iffy. The jumper, or lack thereof, is the canyon-sized hole that needs to be closed. For what it’s worth, he recognizes that his jumper will unlock everything.
“If I have to choose one thing [to work on], it’s my jumper,” Jones Jr tells Five Reasons Sports.
“I have the ball-handling to do what I want. I have the athleticism to do what I want. Once I get that shot — I got it — but when it gets consistent, that’s a wrap.”
We shall see.
Status: safe for now
From my view, Jones Jr has been the most expendable part of the Heat’s young core precisely because of his offensive skill set. He doesn’t quite handle the ball well enough to play the 3, and isn’t a good enough shooter to provide real value as a stretch-ish 4.
To his credit, he’s done a fantastic job of using gaps to his advantage. More space from the perimeter has allowed him to build up runways for putback slams. He’s a smart guy off the ball, and that’s valuable.
The Heat deciding to trade Justise Winslow and hang onto Jones Jr, a free agent this summer, should be seen as a vote of confidence. They like what he brings to the table, and believe in how hard he works. If the shot does come around, the Heat may just have their 4 of the future.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/Kendrick-Nunn-photo-All-star-scaled.jpg14312560Nekias Duncanhttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgNekias Duncan2020-02-19 13:47:382020-02-19 15:27:43Examining the Miami Heat’s Young Core
The Justise Winslow era wasn’t supposed to go like this.
When he fell to the 10th pick in 2015, the consensus was that Pat Riley and the Miami Heat got the steal of the draft in the form of a teenage wing with promising offensive potential and rare defensive versatility. He was a champion, a product of the Duke program that the Heat organization has been so fond of. Under the tutelage of Dwyane Wade Justise was supposed to blossom into stardom and take the torch from his mentor, leading the team into the next era.
None of that worked out quite right. After an impressive rookie year his mentor left, injuries cut his sophomore season short, a crowded backcourt forced him to play out of position more frequently than was preferable, and the holes in his offensive game made it difficult to fit him back into a rotation that was largely constructed in his absence.
When he was on the floor and not squeezed into an awkward spot in the lineup, he was undeniably good. He had his shortcomings, sure, but his defense was as good as advertised and his playmaking ability shocked a lot of fans. Before the acquisition of Jimmy Butler there wasn’t a player on the team who could make some of the passes Justise made with relative consistency. Winslow made huge strides as a shooter in a relatively short amount of time, and at times it looked like he was becoming the borderline all star everyone wanted him to be. If he had been able to stay on the court for a prolonged period he would’ve been incredibly valuable to a young competitive Heat team that struggles to defend the perimeter at time. Unfortunately, for Justise, that was a huge if.
Justise Winslow hasn’t had one recurring injury that would raise a huge red flag like in the case of Greg Oden or Joel Embiid (who has been successful despite health concerns), and it is difficult to know how serious his recent injuries are. What we do know is that he couldn’t stay on the floor for an extended stretch and it didn’t look like that was going to change in the near future. As fans and media members, we can talk about whether what they got back in the Grizzlies trade was an adequate return but, at a certain point, that’s all irrelevant. It has become clear that the Justise Winslow era in Miami ended some time before Pat Riley got on the phone with the Memphis front office. To fault either party for the deterioration of the relationship would require knowledge we don’t have. The only certainty is that the relationship was over.
The Grizzlies got a great young talent. If Justise Winslow thrives in Memphis, it should be a surprise to nobody. But his shortcomings as an off-ball offensive talent will always make it complicated to cleanly slot him into a rotation and Pat Riley understandably decided that a competitive Miami team didn’t have the time to continually work the oft-injured Winslow back into a rotation that is running relatively smoothly. Memphis is still young, they can afford to have the patience that a player like Justise necessitates.
Many Miami Heat fans (myself included) were attached to Winslow. He’s a promising, personable young player who has been refreshingly open about his mental health. Any success he has in Memphis should delight the fans who loved him. It should not necessarily serve as an indictment of the Heat organization. Miami needed the flexibility and Justise Winslow needed the fresh start. Best of luck to both parties.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/Justise-screen-shot-.png654949Jack Alfonsohttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgJack Alfonso2020-02-09 08:50:572020-02-09 09:24:26Justise Winslow in Miami, promise unfulfilled
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/20200127_191639.jpg17132284Alejandro Villegashttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgAlejandro Villegas2020-01-27 19:10:592020-01-27 19:19:24Erik Spoelstra on Kobe Bryant’s legacy and his memories with him: “He was just unparalleled”
He’s a toxic teammate. A terrible influence. A ticking time bomb.
Too demanding. Too selfish.
Too much me, not enough we.
That’s what we heard about Jimmy Butler, not from one spot, not from two spots, but from three.
Issues in Chicago. Trouble in Minnesota. Tension in Philadelphia.
A star, for sure, but not someone who could necessarily shine in a galaxy. Not someone you’d unequivocally trust on your side, especially when a squad started showing cracks. Not someone who would could lead as the primary piece, or support as the second, or sacrifice as the third. Not someone worthy of a maximum contract, certainly not of significant length, when he wasn’t capable of drawing out the maximum from those around him.
That’s what we heard.
From media. From executives. From coaches. And, yes, from players.
Now hear from his Miami Heat teammates about each’s initial meeting with the franchise’s new centerpiece.
You never get a second chance to make a first impression?
Here, finally at home, Jimmy Butler never needed one.
******
The Sidekick: Bam Adebayo
“His first impression was, he didn’t come in here with the ‘I’ mentality, or this is my team, or I’m gonna do it this way and nobody else can tell me (anything). He came in with open arms, he followed our culture, and he bought in. And now you are starting to see a different Jimmy. Jimmy isn’t the type of dude that wants to be the guy who other teams say he is. He says I’m the heart of this team but a lot of times we feed off of Jimmy’s energy. You know the Jimmy energy when you feel it. He’s just one of those guys, man, he’s all about winning.”
“I played against him a little bit, but we just knew each other because I knew D-Wade and he knew D-Wade. So it wasn’t like we had a first encounter then. But then we started playing pickup and we started building the connection, and you see it on the court. We developed the connection of basketball first and, once we got settled in, it kind of became more of a friendship and a brotherhood.”
“We are feeding off each other, we are finding each other. Coach Spo knows we are a great trigger together, and we are trying to really impose our will on teams with that.”
The Slovenian Soccer Pal: Goran Dragic
A preview of the Jimmy Butler piece posting at 1pm on Butler and his teammates pic.twitter.com/o2KpWfLUpr
— Five Reasons Sports Network (@5ReasonsSports) January 24, 2020
“I didn’t know him well. I knew that he was a great player. Usually when we played, sometimes he was guarding me, so I knew how tough he was. And then we just developed a chemistry. He’s a huge fan of soccer. Me too. So we bond with that. And then when we are on the floor, I try to look for him, I try to get him some easy baskets, and we got that chemistry. I don’t know how. But it’s fun. And I need to admit, he’s a really funny guy. I didn’t (think) he was so funny. But when you are around him most of the time, he’s a clown.”
“Man, where was the first time we met, bro….”
(Butler approaches in locker room)
“Was it training camp?”
“The first time we met?” Butler repeats. “All-Star weekend, motherfucker!”
“OK, but not then,” Dragic says. “This year, this year.”
“Uh, training camp,” Butler says.
“Yeah, training camp,” Dragic says. “He was working out at 3 a.m., I was sleeping.”
(Laughter)
“Come here, my brother, see you tomorrow,” Butler says, with a hug and kiss. “Thank you brother.”
“Yeah, he’s a great guy. And I don’t understand. You know, you hear a lot of rumors in this league, when he was in Minnesota. I mean, I like that he challenges guys. You know? I like the challenges. Sometimes the guys are too sensitive in this league, and if he tells you something, it’s not personal, it’s only because he wants for the best of the team. And he wants the same thing from you. And that’s something that I really appreciate about him.”
It is suggested to Dragic that Butler doesn’t like entitled players.
And that the Heat, with only two top-10 picks, fit a different profile than past Butler teams in the NBA.
Butler, after all, was drafted 30th.
“He understands. Nothing was given to us. I’m not saying that the first rounders, it was given. But we have a little bit different path to get here. You know, I remember when Jimmy came to the league. He was basically only a defender. And you can see how he developed. I’m happy for him. He’s a great NBA player, and I’m happy to have him here.”
Friends of Butler say he has tried to model his Heat behavior after that of Dragic, since Dragic is the second-most tenured player on the team behind Udonis Haslem.
“With this kind of caliber of player, each team he goes, he cannot fit wrong. Because he’s got the ability to adapt, to fit into different systems to play. And he’s such a smart player. For me, when I came here, of course, it was D-Wade, CB (Chris Bosh), those were the main guys. I just tried to fit in. Those guys helped me a lot too. I personally talk a lot to Jimmy. I try to ask him what he sees, tell him what I see, especially when we play together. A lot of action goes towards him, and he backcuts, I try to get him some easy layups, because the defense keys on him, so it’s really tough to get those shots.”
The Sage: Udonis Haslem
“Everybody asks me this, about what happened with Jimmy in other places. I don’t know what you want me to say. You put him in the cage with a bunch of cats, he’s gonna growl. You put him in a kennel with a bunch of dogs, he’s gonna be right at home. That’s really all I got to say about that. I don’t know what people want me to say. I don’t understand what they’re asking, about where he was. He fit in right here perfectly.”
“I already met him through D-Wade. The only thing I was really curious about was the country music thing, but he sold me. I got a couple country music things that I’m into right now. And I bought in. And I’m vibing.”
The Sniper: Duncan Robinson
“I didn’t know him at all. We played against him last year. I think I might have checked into one of the games we played against him. My first interaction was in an open gym. He just raised the level right away with his competitiveness. He and I had a couple of interactions where we went back and forth. I think that maybe it wasn’t necessarily something he expected from me but, at the same time, there are a lot of competitive guys in this locker room. He enjoys that. Just kind of having that competitive spirit be returned. He’s been awesome. He’s raised the level of our practices, our workouts, our games, obviously, and just been a great presence in this locker room.”
“Yeah, I vividly remember the first time. He went under a handoff on me, and I shot it behind and made it, and said, ‘Don’t ever go under my handoffs.’ I reminded him of that. And I think he proceeded to post me up on the other end. We just went back and forth. Just kind of normal jargon.”
“He definitely fits what this organization is about, and I think that’s why he was drawn here. He’s been awesome with me, and just pushing me, and really being in my ear. He’s been a tough critic on me, but I welcome that. And I think it’s made me a better player. He’s a great dude, man, he really is. I’ll (even) tolerate the (country music) more than other guys. I don’t really actively choose to listen to country music. But I don’t get annoyed with it like the other guys in this locker room. I’m kind of used to it.”
The Surprise Starter: Kendrick Nunn
“First meeting with Jimmy was probably in the locker room. He came in the locker room over the summertime. Right before training camp. He’s just a good guy. I’d seen him put in a bunch of work, so that was my first impression of him. I was just seeing how hard he worked. And the work he put in. I knew what type of guy he was up front. I knew we would have a connection because I’m the same type of guy.”
“He does appreciate (guys who didn’t have it easy). Of course I had to show him, because he probably didn’t know much about me. But just him watching me work and how I go about things, I think he appreciates that. He tells me too. He congratulates me on little things and he embraces it for sure.”
When does Nunn think Butler noticed him?
“Probably the preseason, when I had the 40 (against Houston). I mean, I caught a lot of guys with that. It was a different feel. He trusted me more on the court.”
Now they are starting together: what does Butler want?
“Just being accountable. It’s a collective effort on the court, where sometime during the game, where you need to hold your own. Whether that’s mano a mano of you guarding someone, holding your own. I showed I can do that, and he likes that, he embraces that. He tells me to continue to go about things how I am, continue to grind, work hard with my head down, and good things will come.”
Can he correct Butler now?
“Yeah. I’ve built that relationship with him. We’ve been starting the entire season together. So we have definitely been building communication. Our chemistry is building more and more every day. Spacing is one. Because I know guys normally stay attached to him. And he screens a lot and gets other guys open. So that’s what he usually tells me, when I try to go screen for him, he tells me to space out and then he’ll come screen for me and maybe he’ll draw two and leave me open. It’s been good.”
The Soarer: Derrick Jones, Jr.
“Me and Jimmy, when we met, we both let each other know our passion for the game, our love for the game, and our love to compete. First time actually meeting and talking, we were playing pickup. We got to see how each other work. We were on the same team the whole time. We got to see how each other played. And I loved it. I mean, people say this and that about Jimmy but, to me, he’s the ultimate competitor. He just wants to win, man. At the end of the day, that’s why I’m here.”
“It was just with us, in Miami. I mean, I knew of him before that, had conversations on the floor playing against each other, but actually being on the same floor, on the same team, it was different. I loved it. We got to feel out each other’s game. Like right now, I feel like when me and Jimmy are on the floor together, I told him, I’m gonna be man on ball, and you just go ahead and roam. Just do what you do. You’re a great on-ball defender but I feel like Jimmy’s best attribute is as an off-ball defender. Just let me guard the man, and you do what you got to do to get your steals.”
“Everybody in our locker room, we have a legendary work ethic. And I feel like we all gonna click regardless. We love to play the game, we love to win, we got ultimate competitors in here. When Jimmy first got to this team, like I say, I started watching all his highlights on YouTube and everything. I was just picking up on where he left off of. I see little places where I can help myself with him. Just put myself out there where I’m vulnerable to anything. I’m never the type to be mad about him criticizing my defense or anything. Whatever he got to tell me, I know it’s always gonna be good and it’s always from the heart. And we want to win, so whatever he got to say, I told him I’m all ears.”
“That’s our guy. That’s the culture here. We love it here, we love each other. They’re like my brothers. I’m never gonna let my brother go out there by himself. Whenever he got something to say, I got something to say right with him.“
The Staunch Supporter: Meyers Leonard
“Jimmy and I, shoot, we went to three meals in like a 16 hour span in Toronto. My wife’s like, ‘Dang, you’re spending a lot of time with Jimmy.’ I’m like, ‘I want to get to know the guy.’ And he invited me to dinner. I went and then, all of a sudden, the next day, we’re having lunch and dinner again. He gets it. And it does start from the top, which is Spo and his staff. And then a guy like Jimmy, you bring a guy like that in, that you wonder well, people have said, ‘Well, Jimmy Butler’s an asshole.’ No, no. Jimmy Butler’s not an asshole. I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again. Jimmy Butler simply loves to compete, he’s competitive as hell. Wants guys to want to win, wants guys to want to work hard. And I don’t see any issue with it. We’re making millions of dollars to play basketball. That should be a pretty simple task.”
It seems like he doesn’t stomach entitlement from others, anywhere.
“Uh huh. Uh huh. I got to give you a couple stories, I just have to. I was telling (wife) Elle that I need to find a way to get to know Tyler (Herro), I’ve just got to find a way to do it. I had caught wind during one day of an offseason workout that Tyler was gonna be in early the next morning. So I said to Tyler, ‘Hey, what time are you showing up in the morning?’ He said, ‘I think we’re gonna be in at 6:30.’ I said, OK, perfect, I’ll be there. And I told Elle it’s because I wanted to get to know him, and I wanted him to start to trust me, and show him that he can come to me with any problems, any questions, anything. I mean, I’ve been around the league. And so I show up, and in a full sweat on the other end is Jimmy Butler. And I’m thinking to myself, ‘What in the hell? I didn’t know this guy was in town.’ But I respected that so much. So anyways, we get the work out done and Jimmy says, ‘Hey, big fella, good to see you man, I see you are working hard, this is gonna be a fun season.’ And now fast forward a couple weeks, now we’re in training camp, I catch wind that Jimmy now is gonna be working out at 3:30, or 3 a.m. it was. And I was like, no way in hell I’m gonna let our leader be there by himself. I’m just not gonna do it. This has nothing to do with publicity. The only thing it has to do with, I’m gonna show Jimmy, if he’s gonna put this amount of work in, I’m gonna be right there next to him, by his side. Sure enough, we work out, it was great. It was just simply that I wanted to show him, I guess, my willingness to work hard and be right there alongside of him.
— Five Reasons Sports Network (@5ReasonsSports) January 24, 2020
“And then the last piece was slowly but surely, Jimmy knows I care about winning, I play my role, I’m a locker room guy, I communicate, I do all those things. But I wanted to get to know him better. So again, we spent a pretty decent amount of time together, just talking about life, talking about basketball, on and on and on. Jimmy’s great, man. He really really is. And anybody who has been around him, in the right environment, would know that about Jimmy.”
The Savant: Tyler Herro
“I met Jimmy at his house in Chicago over the summer, when I went to work out with him. My first impression? I don’t know. I liked him. I liked the guy, I don’t know. Obviously, he took me under his wing. He’s like a big brother to me. He teaches me a lot on the court, even off the court I learned a lot from him. I don’t know what the assumption was, that he was a bad teammate or this, that or the third. But he’s been great for us and our locker room. Obviously, he’s our best player. And he’s a big reason why we are second or third in the East right now.”
“I hit him up, just know I’m the new rookie on the team. I don’t know if you’ve heard about me. I pretty much just texted him. I got his number through somebody and hit him up, let him know. And he was like, ‘If you want, you can come to Chicago and work out with me for a week. I was like, ‘Yeah. I’m with it.’ Yeah, yeah. We worked out for a couple days. We flew to Miami for a day, because he was buying a house. So I went with him to buy his house in Miami, and then we flew back that same night after a soccer game. I think Neymar was playing where the Dolphins play. And then we headed back to Chicago for a couple days and that was it.”
Why the quick connection?
“First, I respect him in a big way, everything that he’s done. I like guys who are going to impact a locker room, like this one, in a good way. He pushes everyone. When I first met him, I knew he was my type of guy when we were getting up at 5 in the morning going to work out. That’s the same stuff I do. I think once he sees that I was 19, and I was working like him, I think he respected me.”
“Probably the first time he came to Miami, for good, right before training camp, it was probably like September 20th I’d say. And we had an open gym run, 5-on-5, and I was guarding Jimmy and he was guarding me. It wasn’t like we were talking back at each other, it was just some competitive trash talk. I think that was another point where I think he respected me, I could talk to him like a grown man. Obviously I gained his respect. I’m continuing to build his trust.”
“Uno. We play a lot of Uno. He’s beaten me at that too. We played medicine beach ball. He’s beaten me at that. The only thing I’ve beaten him at so far is dressing.”
Jimmy Butler: The Star
Why is he so happy here?
Asked @JimmyButler why he is smiling every day here…
— Ethan J. Skolnick of @5ReasonsSports (@EthanJSkolnick) November 19, 2019
*******
Photos by John Kozan (@BrassJazz) other than Haslem photo by Ethan J. Skolnick. Jimmy Butler was offered for an interview for this story. We ultimately decided that his teammates said it best. Season Ticket is sponsored by Sirvanti Men’s Custom Clothiers in South Miami. Call Blanca at (305) 310-2085 for a consultation.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/Jimmy-with-team-Brass-1-scaled.jpeg17092560Ethan Skolnickhttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgEthan Skolnick2020-01-24 13:04:562020-01-25 10:25:12Season Ticket: Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat & Fresh First Impressions
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/20200120_201346-scaled.jpg14402560Alejandro Villegashttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgAlejandro Villegas2020-01-20 21:50:542020-01-20 21:51:21James Johnson on his four threes and key block: “I am here to help the team with whatever we need”
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/20200120_201933-scaled.jpg14402560Alejandro Villegashttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgAlejandro Villegas2020-01-20 21:47:052020-01-20 21:47:05Goran Dragic after the hard-fought win against the Sacramento Kings: “I don’t know how we won this game”
Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.
Since we last touched base:
Won at Indiana 122-108
Lost at Brooklyn 117-113
Lost at New York 124-121
Current Record: 27-12, 3rd in the East, tied for 4th best record in the league
Win Now or 2021 Plan? Or both?
Today a clip from ESPN’s Brian Windhorst began circulating regarding the Heat’s plans to build another super team. Which could as a surprise to no member of Heat Nation.
It was then punctuated by tweets from two former players that elude to the possibility of the best player on planet Earth (& current Milwaukee Buck) Giannis Antetokounmpo being the Heat’s top priority.
I think everyone realizes by now that every team will have Giannis as a top priority that summer. The mystique surrounding Riley, allure of Miami as a destination and the fact that Antetokounmpo & Heat star Bam Adebayo share an agent all have added flames to this fire.
However, as the Heat come off 2 bad losses to subpar teams, with question marks about the sustainability of their hot start and the current team’s ceiling, fans have been firing up the trade machine since Sunday evening.
Can the make a win now move without sacrificing 2021 plans? Some have been skeptical.
FWIW, we get asked a lot about potential moves to improve this team now.
So wrt any move this year, ask yourself this: will it jeopardize a super team in 2021? If the answer is yes? It ain’t happening https://t.co/eEgXlOrTIq
Could they trade for a player that the franchise’s new superstar Jimmy Butler has advocated for – Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday – without sacrificing this shot (of all shots worth shooting) at the Greek Freek in summer 2021?
Let’s investigate.
First, we must establish that this reckless fake trade speculation is arriving on your doorstep in far less elaborate packaging than say the great Albert Nahmad has done here.
This is just rough math (let’s call it Culture rounding) aimed at giving you a snapshot at how the Heat could conceivably position itself to acquire a player such as Holiday before the February trade deadline and also preserve the flexibility necessary to sign Giannis.
To know how much the Heat will have to spend in 2021, we first would need to speculate on what contracts need to be included in the trade for Jrue Holiday.
For the sake of this exercise – let’s assume it takes at minimum a package that resembles Justise Winslow, Kendrick Nunn, Kelly Olynyk and a draft pick of some kind.
One important note about the following potential scenario – it would unfortunately make it hard for the Heat to retain Derrick Jones Jr and Goran Dragic – although there could even be ways of making that happen if the players and organization were aligned on plans.
If we then operate under the assumption that the Heat make no other long-term salary commitments prior to 2021, and renounce any lingering cap holds, this is what the Heat’s cap sheet would look like heading into that summer:
Jimmy Butler $36M
Jrue Holiday $26M (lets assume he opts IN – which could be considered unlikely)
Tyler Hero $4M
KZ Okpala $1.8M
Chris Silva $2M cap hold
Bam Adebayo cap hold $12.8M
Duncan Robinson cap hold $2M
Ryan Anderson dead cap $5M
2020 1st Round Pick 2nd year salary: $2M
4 minimum roster charges: $4M
That brings the total committed salary to $95M or so heading into summer 2021.
The salary cap for 2021 is projected to be $125M
That leaves the Heat with somewhere around $30M in cap space.
Giannis Year One Max is projected to be $37M.
So, the Heat find themselves around $7M short.
However, if you can find a team to take KZ Okpala and the player you select with your 2020 1st Round Pick (if it hasn’t been traded by then) you gain back $4M.
That get’s you to $34M in cap space.
Renounce the cap hold of Silva and you get to $36M – only $1 million short of the year one Giannis max total.
Then all that would be left to do is convince Giannis to do an unprecedented, unfathomable act, something that has never been executed in Miami Heat history.
He would have to sacrifice a relatively small amount of his year one annual income (relatively speaking) to land in Miami on a super team. And yes, seeing how this version of the Heat would have Butler, Holiday, Giannis, Bam, Herro & Robinson as its core – I think we could deem them a potential super team.
Sounds impossible, if we hadn’t already seen players do it to team up down here in the past.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/ButlerBam-scaled.jpeg17092560Greg Sylvanderhttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgGreg Sylvander2020-01-14 21:40:492020-01-14 21:40:49Guts Check: Try to win now or wait for 2021? Heat can do both
A 1-2 road trip isn’t the end of the world. Heck, losing to the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks (yuck) isn’t all that bad. They’re two losses in an 82-game schedule that, to this point, the Heat have probably overachieved in.
The way that those games were lost, however, is pretty frustrating.
241 American points were given up over the weekend, all in regulation. The Kyrie-and-KD-less Nets — with a rusty Caris LeVert to boot — probably shouldn’t have that sort of success. Neither should the Knicks, a hodgepodge of trade fodder surrounding a wet-behind-the-ears wing with a questionable jumper.
But alas, this is the way the Heat’s defense has been trending.
If you’ve been following The Launching Pad, you would’ve picked up on the Heat’s weekly defensive rating rising every week. Since December 1st, the Heat have a defensive rating of 111.3 (23rd). They’ve gone 14-7 in that stretch, but a 21-game sample means their defensive shortcomings don’t classify as a blip.
The Heat’s defense is like an onion — it stinks and it’ll make you cry, if it hasn’t already. More importantly for this discussion, there are layers to this problem.
Understanding the Scheme
DISCLAIMER: You’re more than welcome to skip the next section if you’re even marginally X’s & O’s inclined.
To understand where the cracks in Miami’s defense are coming from, you must understand what the Heat want to accomplish, and how they want to get there.
The Heat employ a “Drop” scheme against ball screens, which calls for the perimeter defender to fight over screens while the big man drops (aha!) into the paint. When done correctly, a drop scheme:
1) runs the perimeter player off the three-point line and funnels him inside
2) Puts the defensive big man in position to take away a (clean) rim attempt or a lob attempt to a rolling big
3) Allows help defenders to stay attached to guys in the corner, since pick-and-rolls are defended 2-on-2
4) encourages pull-up 2s or floaters, which are generally less efficient shots than 3s or shots at the rim
There are natural holes in that scheme. Pick-and-pops are coverage busters since the defensive big is tasked with hanging in the paint. It’s partly why guys like Karl-Anthony Towns are nearly impossible to deal with.
Pull-up artists — your Dames, your Kembas, your Trae Youngs — are particularly lethal if they can run their man into a screen. With the big in the paint, there’s no real chance for a contest on a quick pull-up unless you’re sending help elsewhere.
The Numbers
By virtue of their scheme, the Heat want to take away rim attempts first, corner shots second, above-the-break threes third, and let offenses feast or famine on in-between shots.
The Heat are doing precisely one (1) of those things well.
Via PBPStats, the Heat rank 9th in percentage of shot attempts allowed at the rim (30.6). They’re 26th in percentage of corner threes allowed (10.5), 28th in above-the-break threes (32.0), and don’t particularly force long mid-range shots either.
When you look at the efficiency of those shots, the story basically flips.
Despite the Heat limiting rim attempts, they’ve been the NBA’s worst defense at actually defending those shots (66.86 percent). Enemies haven’t had success on their above-the-break threes (31.9 percent, 4th), corner threes (35.1 percent, 4th) or long mid-range jumpers (37.3 percent, 4th).
That kind of split begs the question: why are the Heat so bad at shot prevention?
Problems at the head
It starts up top, figuratively and literally.
The key to a drop scheme is the perimeter defender staying connected to the ball-handler. If he doesn’t do that, the burden shifts to the rest of the team to scramble. With the NBA being spacier than ever, scramble drills feel like death sentences. Cracks turn to craters reeeeally quickly.
This isn’t an example of a scramble drill. In fact, I’d say this was one of Miami’s best defensive reps from the Nets game. Meyers Leonard does a surprisingly good job of meeting Spencer Dinwiddie at the level of the screen. He hesitates on the contest, and Dinwiddie makes the shot. That’s still a pretty solid process with an unfavorable result.
What this is an example of, however, is Kendrick Nunn dying on a screen. This has been happening quite often since the first month of the season. He started the season hot as a point-of-attack defender, often “jumping” the screen — feeling where the pick is coming from and getting into the ball-handler’s body before the screener can even make contact — and staying attached.
Teams got privy to that, and we saw more guards start to back-cut him. Since then, Nunn has been a bit slower in his approach to attack screens. It’s led to less backdoor cuts, but he’s allowed himself to get screened, putting the rest of the defense in limbo.
As productive as Goran Dragic has been offensively, he’s been … let’s say the exact opposite of that on the defensive end. Dragic’s inability to stay connected on screens is a big reason why he’s in a bench role to begin with.
Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson have been mostly fine as team defenders. They know when and where to rotate, and can execute simple dig-and-recover sequences when they aren’t directly involved in the action.
When they are attacked, either on or off ball, their lack of quick-twitch athleticism make them liabilities. Robinson in particular has struggled to stay connected. Here’s an off-ball rep:
Aaaaaaaand here’s a pretty important on-ball rep:
Not great!
The Nets sought out Robinson late in the 4th and essentially got what they wanted every time down. The clip above also sheds light on an obvious but not-discussed-enough fact of the Heat’s defense: they really don’t like switching.
Overcompensating
Super Bam highlights aside, the Heat want to keep things simple. Via Second Spectrum tracking data, the Heat have ranked 25th in screens switched per 100 possessions in each of the past two seasons.
That’s not inherently a bad thing. But when the crux of your defensive principle is staying attached, and your players can’t do that, you’re going to give up the shots the Heat have been giving up.
First and foremost, this is a fantastic set play from the Nets. A big reason this play works is because they knew Leonard didn’t want to leave the paint. Running Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot off a screen to occupy Bam was a smart wrinkle to take him and Leonard out of the play simultaneously.
Having Bam and Leonard switch that initial screen would’ve allowed Bam to hang at the top of the key to help defend the Joe Harris-Jarrett Allen action. Instead, Allen washes out Robinson with a screen, which leads to a scramble drill.
In lieu of switching, the Heat try to compensate by flooding the middle of the floor. I’ve talked a little about the Heat’s defense at the “nail” — the point of the floor slightly above the middle of the free throw line. Jimmy Butler has played a ton of free safety from that area this season, which has led to plenty of pick-sixes.
It’s a risk-reward dance that Butler has mostly won this season. In addition to jumping passing lanes, Butler also has the freedom to “dig” more aggressively into the paint for surprise strips. Things can go pretty poorly whenever Butler loses a bet.
The Heat’s commitment to taking away the middle is a big reason why they play so much zone. Having guys like Butler and Derrick Jones Jr. makes middle penetration and entry passes darn-near impossible. When teams are able to find the soft spot of the zone, bad things happen pretty darn quickly.
The Heat’s zone has generally been used as a change-of-pace option; as of late, it feels like its usage has come out of necessity.
How does it get better?
Depending on how you consume Heat basketball (or, I guess, basketball in general), this answer will either anger you or excite you.
This isn’t getting better without some personnel changes. It’s hard to imagine Erik Spoelstra deciding to get more switch-y. With this group, I’m not sure you can really afford to. Simplifying things can only take you so far.
If you guessed that this would be the section that I mention the name of one Justise Winslow, you would be correct!
It’s hard to overstate just how important a healthy Winslow would be for this defense. At his best, he’s the Heat’s second best perimeter defender and their best screen-avoider. Giving some of the Nunn, Dragic, Herro, or Robinson minutes to Winslow would be quite the upgrade.
(I’d also encourage you to check out the timeline of our own Christian Hernandez — @ICanBeYourHerro — if you want some of the ugly lineup numbers the Heat have dealt with at guard.)
Sadly, Winslow is still dealing with a back injury. There’s no telling when he’ll be 70 percent, much less when he’ll be back to his calling-Ben-Simmons-a-BAN self.
Maybe another week of this convinces Pat Riley to hit up Pelicans GM David Griffin to inquiry about Jrue Holiday. On a less exciting note, calling up the Sacramento Kings to check in on disgruntled Dewayne Dedmon to beef up the front court would make some sense.
Until then, your best bet is to hope some rest, good ol’ fashioned film review yelling, and home cooking can reinvigorate this group.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/JimmyMeyersMSG-scaled.jpg17092560Nekias Duncanhttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgNekias Duncan2020-01-13 19:29:302020-01-14 10:51:55What’s Wrong With the Miami Heat’s Defense?
Butler goaded Warren into an ejection after an offensive foul on Butler drew taunting applause from the Indiana forward.
The two were going at it all game and the physicality finally reached a boiling point.
Perhaps Warren did not realize that Butler is probably only the third baddest you-know-what on the Heat.
Full sequence:
-TJ Warren fouls Jimmy Butler. Butler REALLY doesn’t like it.
-Butler keeps yelling “I’m tough.”
-Warren invites him to continue the discussion outside.
-Later, Warren is ejected and Butler blows him a kiss 🤣 pic.twitter.com/tAJwVTRL84
Meanwhile some, let’s say, old school basketball minds think Butler was in the wrong.
A bad example for the young fans of the National Basketball Association.
Totally classless response from a talented star of @MiamiHEAT Butler doesn’t get it as so many kids watching @NBA & his every move / man take some lessons from @KingJames@AntDavis23@StephenCurry30 etc
Jimmy Butler has been fined $35,000 for engaging in an altercation and escalating the incident on social media postgame. TJ Warren fined $25,000. Guess the NBA decided they weren’t in the same f—g league.
— Five Reasons Sports Network (@5ReasonsSports) January 10, 2020
Perhaps you receive less punishment if you forget the whole thing ever happened.
Alejandro Villegas
Alejandro Villegas
