Launching Pad: Bam’s Buckets, Nunn’s Growth, Zone Success

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 21-8 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 110.7 (116.8)

• Defensive Rating: 105.8 (113.5)

• Net Rating: plus-4.9 (plus-3.3)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.0 (62.1)

• Pace: 99.84 (99.00)

• Time of Possession: 14.6 seconds (14.8)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard

• Minutes: 41

• Offensive Rating: 124.4

• Defensive Rating: 102.4

• Net Rating: plus-22.0

• True-Shooting Percentage: 66.6

• Pace: 97.8

The Big Number: 40.0

“We just didn’t guard nobody, man, from the beginning of the game. I think that’s the direction that we’re trending in right now. I feel like we got to take it personal. That doesn’t mean enough to us right now, to man up and take the challenge.”

That was was Jimmy Butler following the Heat’s loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz dropped 118 on the Heat, including a 13-for-36 outing from three. The attempts matter more than the makes here; they came often and easy, much as they have all year against the Heat.

Per tracking data from Cleaning The Glass, the Heat allow the second largest share of three-point attempts in the league. 40 percent of enemy shots come from beyond the arc, slightly besting the Toronto Raptors (40.1) for the highest clip in the league.

The Heat have survived because those shots … just haven’t gone in. Opponents have shot just 31.2 percent on above-the-break threes (2nd in the NBA) and 36.2 percent on corner triples (8th) this season.

You can blame, if that’s the word, a lot of this on the scheme. You’re generally banking on teams taking tough pull-ups against a “Drop” scheme. When you combine that with shaky defense at the point of attack (miss you, Justise), and some liberal help rules from the “nail” — you can get a brief intro here — the Heat are at risk of some swing-swing-shoot sequences that bleed open looks.

 

Pay attention to Tyler Herro in that clip. That ends up being a tough shot because it’s for Solomon Hill, but it was mostly open. There was no real reason for Herro to help down in the first place.

The Heat want to be disruptive in that area, but they have to be smart about it if they want to limit attempts moving forward.

Weekly Trends

1. Bam, thriving in the middle

When we saw Bam Adebayo face off against the Sixers on November 23rd, he was greeted with the most aggressive version of “Drop” coverage he had seen all season. Joel Embiid played no less than eight feet off of him, basically daring Bam to do … anything, really.

Narrator: he didn’t do anything, really.

Adebayo finished the game with 12 points on 5-of-9 shooting, though the impact went beyond those numbers. With Embiid conceding that much space, he effectively eliminated Miami’s cut-heavy offense. DHO action with Adebayo went nowhere; his indecision off the bounce stunted an already-limited offense. It was ugly.

Adebayo has turned into a true offensive threat since that game, particularly in the middle of the floor.

He’s sprinkling in jumpers with more regularity:

The floater is coming along, with either hand:

And, buddy, is he showing off some juice off the dribble:

Before that Sixers game, Adebayo had only eclipsed 17 points four times. He’s averaging 17.5 points in the 14 games since, with four games over 20. He’s shot 22-of-46 (47.8 percent) on shots between 5-14 feet during that time frame.

As he’s become more comfortable in the intermediate area, the offense has become more difficult to defend.

2. Kendrick Nunn is calming down

Nunn has been a revelation for the Heat this season. Not only is he the Heat’s second leading scorer (16.4), he’s currently the highest scoring rookie in Heat history.

(Yes, he is currently outpacing Dwyane Wade by 0.2 points.)

Nunn’s scoring repertoire is impressive. He can drill pull-up triples, has an assortment of moves in the middle, and can finish at the rim with either hand. Three-level scorers are incredibly hard to find; three-level scorers that can bring plus-value in other areas are nearly impossible.

Nunn is more of the former than the latter right now, which is still a win for the Heat. His limitations as a passer have been pointed out by yours truly. He has routinely called on his own number when making a pass might’ve been a better option.

To his credit, he’s seen the floor better over the past couple of weeks. It’s especially worth highlighting now because he’s been able to strike a nice shoot-pass balance while scoring effectively. He isn’t making CP3-esque reads in the half-court, but he’s hitting the easy stuff — and doing so in a timely manner.

Nunn may be an older rookie, but he is a rookie nonetheless. His decision-making has gotten better over time, and that should continue as he becomes more accustomed to the speed of the game.

3. Zoning up

The more things change, the more things say the same. Erik Spoelstra doesn’t mind getting weird to shift the odds in his favor. He’s done so with his growing usage of the 2-3 zone over the last three years, a trump card that has done more good than evil.

Only two teams — the Washington Wizards (196 possessions) and Toronto Raptors (189) — have played more possessions in zone than the Heat (145). Of the 14 teams that have logged at least 30 possessions, the Heat rank third in defensive efficiency. allowing 0.848 points per possession.

Having guys like Derrick Jones Jr. and Jimmy Butler at the head of the zone is patently unfair. Their length and instincts make it nearly impossible to thread the needle on skip passes. Their closing speed up top also makes it difficult for drivers to penetrate the lane.

As with most schematic things in the NBA, putting more reps on tape will inevitably lead to solutions. The Grizzlies and Sixers (particularly late in the 4th quarter) were able to swing the ball around and generate corner 3s. The Heat give up enough of those in their base defense; they don’t need to do the same in zone.

Still, the zone has been an effective change-up for them this season. The scary thing is that it could get better whenever Justise Winslow returns.

Set Play of the Week

Floppy, with a twist

In terms of half-court actions, it generally doesn’t get more common than “Floppy” — screening action near the baseline in an effort to spring a shooter (or two) free.

What you normally don’t see is a big man on the receiving end of the screen.

Kelly Olynyk is having a down year overall, and we’ll probably need to discuss his role at some point. When he is on the court, he’s still one of the more unique weapons in basketball. He marches to the beat of his own drum in dribble-handoffs, but at his most basic, he’s a darn good shooter.

The very nature of a stretch big stresses defenses out. It ruins “Drop” coverage because it either concedes open looks, or pulls enemy big men out of the paint. Olynyk brings an added element as an off-movement shooter. He’s an awkward watch, but still fluid enough to balance himself and fire off the catch.

The Knicks had no chance here, but have they really had one in 20 years?

Complexity of a Jrue Holiday fit for the Miami Heat

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What the hell are the Miami Heat this season? Are they a contender? A feel good story? A team waiting for 2021? All of that? It’s weird, they are weird and with greater expectations comes urgency.

And that changes everything.

The Heat are loaded with contracts that make it easy to match any star player they would want, they have young attractive rotation players and now they are heavily linked to Pelicans guard, Jrue Holiday. For the Heat is the star guard worth cashing their chips?

The answer is kinda complicated and it doesn’t come without risks. Holiday has a 2021 player option for $26 million and should he opt in it will leave Miami without a max slot for the summer of Giannis. On the flip side, Miami could be a move or two away from the Finals and that’s all this organization wants. A chance. A shot at the title. 

The framework around the deal is the elephant in the room. If it does happen it’s conceivable that the package would include Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow and other salary to match. Considering the Heat are up against hard cap, it will take careful maneuvering and perhaps even a third team involved in any trade. It’s been said that the deal would have to include Tyler Herro which might be the deal breaker for the Heat. However if Pat Riley, cap wizard Andy Elisburg and company can negotiate around that, would the move make basketball sense? The question then becomes: does the move put them over the top into the conversation for the Finals?

Start here: Holiday isn’t a plus shooter by any means. His last three seasons, his three point percentages have been 34, 33 and 34. Playing him alongside Bam Adebayo, who doesn’t space the floor, could really limit the Heat’s offense down the stretch. Holiday would likely be a catch and shoot option in late game offense with Jimmy Butler triggering sets and Holiday is at just 34 percent on catch and shoot threes this season, consistent with his overall shooting. Thus, playing Adebayo, Holiday and Jimmy Butler (28 percent from three this season) in crunch time, as would be the case every night, would create spacing trouble. 

Naturally, it’s important to note that Justise Winslow is struggling this season even more than Holiday this season from deep, at 23 percent. Without question, Holiday is an offensive upgrade to Winslow.

I don’t think it can be argued that adding a recent All-Star and All-Defensive Team player would hurt the Miami Heat. Holiday makes them better no question, but losing two ball handlers for one brings Miami’s margin for error down significantly and Winslow’s size allows the Heat to be a more versatile defensive team. It’s a give and take that ultimately probably nets positive.

There are some concerns offensively but you trust that stars will figure those out, while you lose an elite wing defender you gain one at guard. Holiday would most likely move Kendrick Nunn to a bench role similar to what was being asked of Goran Dragic, to score in bunches and protect leads. The Heat would ask Derrick Jones Jr. to defend bigger wings more often, so long as he’s not part of a trade package. They still might be a wing defender short come playoff time, with names like Simmons, Harris, Brogdon, Giannis, Middleton, Siakam, Brown, Tatum, Hayward on the list of players Winslow would be asked to defend. Is Jones Jr. the playoff answer for that? 

Risking 2021 cap space for what would be Miami’s third best player also raises questions and this is why the move isn’t so cut and dry. This season the Heat have one shot at a needle-moving player because Dragic’s 19 million expiring contract is the big thing that would help them match salary and Winslow is the one attractive young piece the Heat might move. Saving these for a better player than Holiday might be the way to go, but it’s also possible a better player doesn’t become available. 

This team hasn’t been healthy lately as well, and to make knee jerk moves when their third and fourth best players have been out is premature. Without the extra ballhandlers Miami has been easier to defend, depending significantly on dribble-hand off sets and shooters hitting off the curls. It’s a far cry from the Heat’s Horns-heavy motion offense which feature multiple dribble and shooting threats that had Miami’s offense humming. 

It’s unlikely this trade alone puts them over the Sixers or the Bucks and it might come at the expense of 2021 if Holiday opts in. There is an argument to be made that with so many teams having cap space he would try for one last payday. Yet it’s still a risk that he punts on that or an injury would compel him to opt in. Theoretically the Heat can ask him to opt out and bring him back over the cap with his Bird Rights. So there are angles the Heat can play if things break their way. 

With the Heat ahead of schedule and Butler having a timer on his prime there is now a sense of urgency that wasn’t with the Heat in October. Even if they don’t make a move they still sit half a game out the two seed in the East (and half a game out of sixth), with a star, talented young players and a max salary slot in 2021. There are worse positions to be in and the Heat have to look in the mirror and decide what gambles are worth taking for the short term at the expense of 2021 flexibility.  The clock is ticking. To Jrue or not Jrue, that is the question. There’s no easy answer. 

 

Giancarlo Navas (@GNavas103) is the host of Miami Heat Beat.

Guts Check: Bam Adebayo has No Ceiling

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won in OT vs Atlanta 135-121
  • Lost vs the Lakers 113-110
  • Won in OT at Dallas 122-118
  • Lost At Memphis 118-111

After the emotional fatigue associated with the ESPN Heat Index of the Big 3 era, I am usually leery nowadays when the Heat get national recognition. Always equal parts grateful and guarded. I can’t help but feel a bit protective of our finally-fun-again basketball team.

Fun again being a key point I want to marinate on briefly. Yeah I know they lost last night in Memphis, but they were bound to have a short rotation and multiple overtimes catch up with them. Let’s not let one bad loss cloud our thinking. This has been FUN.

First, we marveled at the play of Kendrick Nunn for a couple weeks, then we got acquainted to the Bucket Bros, then came Duncan Robinson shooting flames, Goran Dragic carrying the team off the bench for stretches. Among all those storylines it’s amazing to consider that the leap Adebayo is taking is easily the most impactful development on the entire roster.

What Bam Adebayo is doing is impossible to ignore.

As I always say, he has no ceiling. It’s not mere hope trafficking folks, this dude is the truth. He’s a top 22 player at age 22. On his way to being top 10 or 12 eventually. He has 2 triple doubles already this season, becoming the youngest Heat player ever to accomplish that feat.

A big man getting triple double with assists. Adebayo subscribes to the “don’t talk about it, be about it” method of earning triple doubles. Not often does a player that isn’t ball dominant have the chance to become a top 10 guy. To call him a rare talent is an understatement.

The league is on notice. Evidence by his recent Eastern Conference player of the week award announced yesterday.

Adebayo is a Chris Webber, Draymond Green, Kevin Garnett hybrid. He seems to unlock a different part of his game each night and him becoming this good this fast is jaw dropping.

Of course, Bam has much to go to be mentioned with the likes of Webber and Garnett. Yet the way in which Adebayo works at his craft bodes well for his development into a player who can become as decorated as those greats. He has the chance to be that good.

At one time, Heat fans often considered Bam a player that potentially would have to be sacrificed in the move to bring a superstar to the team. Now it appears his presence on the roster may be the deciding factor in another superstar deciding to join Jimmy & co in Miami.

Oh, and just so we’re clear: Adebayo has been labeled essentially untouchable by Heat brass according to a source.

So as the trade deadline approaches, remember that any trade rumor you see that mentions his name can be dismissed as bogus fodder. I don’t think a single fan will disagree with that decision by the Heat either.

Now let’s get him to Chicago for the All-Star game so he can mingle with the league’s best all weekend and talk up the Culture.

Bam has a chance to be a superstar magnet. I don’t think it should be discounted how important it is for the Heat to have seemingly surrounded Jimmy with such a great cast. Adebayo’s ascension is the kind of happening that makes the Heat’s 2021 pitch an entirely different conversation than we initially expected.

The Heat insist they would have selected Bam even if Donovan Mitchell was available in 2017. At first, I scoffed at the notion. Now I have been left to praise.

Launching Pad: Derrick’s Defense, Butler’s Bullying, Struggling Shooters

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 19-7 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 110.0 (115.0)

• Defensive Rating: 105.0 (111.4)

• Net Rating: plus-5.0 (plus-3.6)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.6 (58.1)

• Pace: 99.94 (98.96)

• Time of Possession: 14.6 seconds (14.6)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Derrick Jones Jr., Bam Adebayo

• Minutes: 26

• Offensive Rating: 153.8

• Defensive Rating: 92.6

• Net Rating: plus-61.2

• True-Shooting Percentage: 73.1

• Pace: 96.75

The Big Number: 9.4

There’s been a weird thing going on with the Heat’s offense this season. As of this morning (December 16th), the Heat rank in the top six in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, true shooting percentage, and assist rate. Teams that score that efficiently and share the ball that well generally rank better than 10th (which is fine!) in offensive rating.

Those teams generally don’t turn the ball over like the Heat do.

Their preference – and at times, reliance – on half-court cuts lead to some ambitious passing. The Heat currently rank 29th in turnover rate (16.7 percent), only ahead of the Atlanta Traes (16.9). That’s partly why their offensive rating was five points higher than their season average, despite their true shooting percentage being a shade lower than their normal average.

Surprisingly, it’s easier to score when you maintain possession of the ball.

Weekly Trends

1. Derrick Jones Jr: Swiss Army Knife

On Thursday, I asked Derrick Jones Jr. where he was most comfortable on defense. Does he like hounding guards? Tracking like-sized 3s? Roaming as the weak-side helper at the 4?

His response: wherever the team needs him. He called himself “positionless” and said, matter-of-factly- that he can “guard 1-through-5.” It’s hard to argue with him after the week he just put together.

It started with him getting the Trae Young assignment on Tuesday.

He then spent time defending LeBron James:

And thennnnn he got to bang with Kristaps Porzingis on Saturday.

This is on top of his usual work as the head of Miami’s zone

Jones Jr. still has hit warts on that end. The angles he takes when navigating pick-and-rolls still leave a bit to be desired. True post threats can give him the blues; Anthony Davis took his lunch money on the few possessions he defended him on Friday.

All in all, it’s hard to complain about the work Jones Jr. has done defensively. He’s clearly improved. That, along with the organized chaos he provides as a transition threat and offensive rebounder, gives him a clear path to closing minutes.

2. The Butler Drove it (and drove it and drove it and drove it)

Jimmy Butler is finally starting to find his groove as a scorer. He’s up to 21 points per game after a conservative start to the year. The jumper hasn’t really come around yet, but he’s compensated by taking it to the rim. Over and over and over again. Much like Goran Dragic, Butler has a way of dislodging defenders with a subtle shoulder check:

Butler hasn’t been as successful at the rim as he has been in other seasons. His 64 percent clip inside of three feet is the lowest mark he’s posted since the 2016-17 season. However, the sheer volume of his drives — 15.5, via Second Spectrum — is the highest it’s ever been. He averaged 19 drives this past week and averaged 8.3 free throw attempts as a result.

Those drives do come at a cost. He’s been exhausted at the end of games and has said as much. Dead legs aren’t going to help an already-shaky jumper get back to form, particularly the pull-up jumpers he likes to take. For now, Butler is willing his way to the hoop — and willing the team to close wins.

3. Struggles from the shooters

I wrote my formal apology to Tyler Herro last week. So of course, he proceeded to forget how to shoot. His three games since that piece: 8.7 points on 10.7 shot attempts, and a 25 percent clip from deep to boot.

Clearly this is my fault.

The shooting will come around; he’s taking mostly good shots, the footwork is fine. There seems to be a slight hitch in his gather, but that may be some slight fatigue-based compensation. If we could revisit Friday’s contest against the Lakers, there is one thing that seems worth discussing.

The handle, while improved, isn’t quite there yet.

Avery Bradley has his shortcomings as a defender – small, isn’t super versatile because of it, whatever – but he’s an absolute menace at the point of attack. Bradley routinely picked up Herro 70-or-so feet from the basket to disrupt his rhythm and it mostly worked.

Herro didn’t display the burst needed to get by. His go-to escape move, a spin to either direction, was a bit sloppy and didn’t create the separation necessary to reset. This was probably his best rep of the night:

That will get cleaned up over time, though the degree of that cleaning-up process is still up in the air.

On the other end of the spectrum is Duncan Robinson. While he hasn’t had a blip in shooting – he canned 51.6 (!) percent of his threes on 10.3 attempts – there has been a drop in quality on the other end. Robinson had been surprisingly “fine” on that end, but the clips of him failing to track shooters or navigate screens are starting to mount.

These are both missed shots, but the process here … isn’t great:

As long as he continues to shoot like a literal Splash Brother, it’ll be easier to overlook his defensive shortcomings. If that shooting starts to slip, his productivity on defense will need to rise to compensate.

Set Play of the Week

Role Reversal

Miami’s post-split action has been giving teams fit all year long. This rep is no different:

The play kicks off with Bam Udoh – er, Adebayo – and Tyler Herro crossing paths. Herro sets a screen for Adebayo, hoping to create an easy bucket underneath. It doesn’t work, so the action continues. This time, Herro sets a down screen for Kelly Olynyk, putting the defense in quite a bind.

Do you fight over the screen and risk Herro springing free for a three?

Do you switch it and create a small-on-big mismatch for Olynyk?

The correct answer: there is no correct answer.

That’s the beauty of using guards that can shoot as screeners in actions like this. Unless you have a switch-y big man, there’s no real way to prevent a mismatch from being created. This is straight from the Steve Kerr handbook, with Herro operating as the Heat’s version of Stephen Curry.

Herro sets a darned good screen The defense freezes, allowing Olynyk to spring open. Adebayo delivers the goods, as he has been all year from that spot.

Guts Check: Put Away the Trade Machine

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won at Toronto 121-110
  • Lost at Boston 112-93
  • Won vs Washington 112-103
  • Won in OT vs Chicago 110-105 
    • 3rd in the Eastern Conference, 17-6 .739

Put away your trade machines.

I know you love a good transaction, but now is not the time. Have the guts to be patient.

Until you see this group lose a handful of games in a short window or struggle for a month straight, the Heat is inclined to stand pat. As they should be. No Kevin Love proposals please. Even Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are no longer viable by my view.

Everything is going exactly to plan.

The goal was to have one star attract another star with the help of a core group that checks all the boxes. The ascension of Bam Adebayo and inevitable rise to stardom from Tyler Herro will make this Heat group as desirable as any Heat roster that went into free agency with max space to offer a superstar ever (aside when they had space to offer three maxes, but let’s exclude that for the rest of eternity)

Pat Riley is going to keep eyes open on the trade market. Particularly for any star players that may quietly get shopped and eventually shake loose that would accelerate this build. Or maybe they look at adding a win now vet that doesn’t compromise 2021. That said, reality remains that the type of player worthy of compromising 2021 flexibility is not likely to become available. Any option is more stop gap than gap fill.

This is about setting the table.

Head into summer 2021 free agent meetings with Riley & staff, flanked by Jimmy, Bam & Tyler. Nunn, Robinson, Silva, Okpala all ready to contribute. A core group that exudes this type of connection is noticed by other players.

I can tell you definitively that it was noticed by Bradley Beal.

He won’t be the last player to have that imprint left upon them.

While the urge will always be there to consider names like Kevin Love, Blake Griffin or Chris Paul being potential “missing pieces”, this urge will only intensify the better this team plays. Ignore it, suppress it until it dissolves.

Riley has been known to push all his chips to the middle the table, so any star that even becomes remotely available must be considered. I get that. But consider Riley’s chips not quite stacked high enough yet for him to go all in.

The notion that a Giannis-Miami pairing would end up being the best situation for the best player in the league is still a speculative theory all things considered.

By next December it may appear a no brainer.

The other no brainer? Trusting this organization to strike when the time is right in this scenario.

For now, enjoy THIS team. If you have the guts.

It’s Time To Stop Doubting Tyler Herro

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[steps to podium]

[taps mic]

Hi, hello, is this thing on?

[Adjusts collar]

My name is Nekias Duncan, and I was wrong about Tyler Herro.

It’s typically unwise to have any definitive opinion on rookies, but this one seems pretty obvious.

To say that I was vocal about my displeasure of his selection would be an understatement. There may or may not have been discussions of a shift to Hawks coverage.

I made the mistake of hammering home Herro’s weaknesses and underselling his strengths. I didn’t take his “prove the haters wrong” ethos seriously enough; it’s especially egregious for two reasons.

1) This feature from Bleacher Report’s Mirin Fader laid out Herro’s background beautifully. This isn’t your typical bookmark-a-tweet-for-motivation guy; he’s shrugged off death threats and vandalism from a young age.

2) After the brief stint of mediocrity the Heat went through, and the success of the Bam Adebayo pick specifically, the Heat zeroing in on Herro the way they did should’ve been a clear sign that they saw something special.

That didn’t stop me from being upset with the pick. The takes I let fly on draft night were laughable at best, cringeworthy at worst. They’re going to be laugh fodder for quite some time. Honestly, it’s well deserved.

It’s so well deserved, that I’m going to make the job a little easier for everyone. I took the “pleasure” of listening back to the draft night pod I did and transcribing everything I said. I will not bore you with all of the “come on, mans” , but I will gladly own up to the biggest things I got wrong.

Think of this piece as The Laughing Pad instead of The Launching Pad.

(Direct quotes in bold, analysis underneath.)

Like, he hasn’t shown – I mean he went to Kentucky, so obviously that plays a part – but he hasn’t shown flashes of being a real creator. So I don’t understand what they saw.

For the sake of clarity, it’s important to note that I was speaking through the lens of potential star potential. From the limited amount of Kentucky I had seen at the time, Herro did not seem like a true break-you-down prospect,

Of course, my view lightened a bit once I saw more of him. That led to me writing this piece on his offensive upside, and then somehow coming away more impressed after Summer League play.

Tyler relocates well and can hit spot-ups. He’s not flinging off-balance threes like Wayne [Ellington] was. And maybe he gets there when he improves the footwork, but if that’s the upside, it doesn’t make sense. Miami needs shot creation – sign a shooter.

Technically true! Herro isn’t hitting threes with the finesse that Ellington did. He does a much better job of establishing his base, and is better shooting off the dribble than Ellington was.

 

Herro has shown comfort getting himself out of jams, favoring a mean right-to-left stepback jumper. Via Synergy, he’s generating 0.96 points per possession on off-the-dribble jumpers, placing him in the 63rd percentile. Second Spectrum’s tracking data has Herro at 15-of-28 (53.6 percent) on stepbacks, with a 4-of-10 clip (40 percent) on stepback triples.

Also, it turns out the Heat didn’t need to sign a shooter. Duncan Robinson (42.5 percent on 6.5 attempts) has more than filled that slot.

If you’re going to take a flier, take the flier on KPJ (Kevin Porter Jr.) and hope that he can create.

Here’s how these two stack up in isolation + pick-and-roll creation.

Porter Jr: 64 possessions, 47 points (0.734 PPP), 23-of-64 from the field (35.9 percent)

Herro: 108 possessions, 81 points (0.75 PPP), 32-of-84 from the field (38.1 percent)

Neither are great marks, and it’s worth noting the difference in .. um .. team quality. The fact remains that Herro has been better, and the gap widens (at least statistically) once you factor in passing (0.924 PPP vs 0.787 PPP).

If you’re gonna take a 6’5ish guard that can do some stuff, take Nickeil Alexander-Walker if you’re gonna go that route. At least he can create some in pick-and-roll. He’s not a great athlete, but he has some length.

More numbers, shall we?

NAW: 21-8-7 per 100 possessions, 32/32/69 shooting split, 0.856 PPP in pick-and-roll (passes included)

Herro: 24-7-3 per 100 possessions, 45/39/83 shooting split, 0.914 PPP in pick-and-roll (passes included)

Oddly enough, both players entered this year’s draft with finishing questions. Herro’s lack of length was harped on by yours truly, while NAW’s lack of vertical pop was a cause for concern.

Through the early portion of the season, Herro has been below average (52.8 percent at the rim, via Synergy), while NAW has been outright dreadful (39.5 percent).

As much as I got harped on for the Brandon Clarke love because of his 6’8 wingspan, Brandon Clarke is the second best athlete in the draft. Who *also* has ridiculous IQ defensively. So at least there’s a path to making that work. What does Tyler do [on that end]?

Rebound. The answer is rebound.

There are other things to note. Herro has been mostly fine as a positional defender. He’s generally where he needs to be off the ball, tracks pretty well over screens, and has the dig-and-recover sequence down when enemies attack the basket.

His ability to end possessions is just not something I saw coming. “Gritty” is generally a white-flavored buzzword, but he genuinely doesn’t mind mixing it up for tough boards.

 

 

Herro’s 14.1 defensive rebound rate outpaces notable guard rebounders like James Harden (13.8) and Jimmy Butler (13.1), and is right in the wheelhouse of Memphis Grizzlies wunderkind (and big man) Jaren Jackson Jr. (14.4).

Do the Heat want to throw Herro on elite scorers with regularity? Probably not. Practice stories and an impressive showing against Devin Booker aside, Herro does struggle to contain quicker guards off the dribble.

But were his defensive shortcomings a bit overblown? Probably so. He’s smart, physical, and helps the team end possessions. The flash plays are nice when they come, but he’s ultimately done his job.

Oh … I would take Rui [Hachimura if available]. Again, the bar is the floor, but also .. man that’s tough. If Tyler had an average frame, then you could say ‘well Kentucky normally compresses their guys’ roles and he can already shoot some, so maybe he has some hidden playmaking ability and he can be fine on defense.’ But the guy has a 6’3 wingspan. Like, he has alligator arms.

1) OOF.

2) Even with the caveat that Rui has been a little better than expected, that’s … oof. The phyiscal tools are tantalizing, but he’s been a not-at-all-insignificant part of the Wizards’ historically bad defense.

3) Every single one of those Kentucky caveats were true, even with the “alligator arms.”

I did this with Bam, so obviously I *want* to be wrong. But, like, nah. This is different than the Bam pick.

It’s quite different from the Bam pick for a very specific reason: Herro has shut me up with a lot more force.

Adebayo has been incredible this season, placing his name firmly in talks for the Most Improved Player award, the Defensive Player of the Year award, and the All-Star team.

Herro has been, at the absolute worst, the third best rookie in this year’s class. Winning Rookie of the Year isn’t out of the question, especially if Zion Williamson doesn’t see the floor much this season.

The Heat have nailed back-to-back end-of-the-lotto picks and I didn’t like either of them at the time of their selection. Either I’m an incredible jinx — maybe! — or this organization deserves a lot more credit (and faith) for their ability to scout.

It’s probably the latter.

Season Ticket: This Miami Heat start is real… and spectacular

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You know it when you see it.

You know it when you hear it.

And we’ve seen it. We’ve heard it. We’ve seen how these Miami Heat players have interacted with each other since training camp in West Palm Beach, or even prior, when the group workout clips started circulating on social media, including the ones of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, the new Heat heartbeat welcoming the fresh-faced, drippy prodigy to the NBA and team fraternity, no pledging or hazing required. We’ve heard how the front office and coaching staff has spoken about this collective, about how selfless they are, about how connected they are, about how hungry they are, about how versatile they are, about how precocious they are. “This has a chance to be one of my favorite groups,” a Heat official who has been with the team for more than two decades told me in early September. “Just watch. People are underestimating us. This has a chance to happen fast.”

And we believed them. Or at least I believed them. I even put your money where my mouth was, suggesting you go over the 43 wins that the Las Vegas oddsmaker set on the futures table, suggesting you look seriously at Bam Adebayo as a Most Improved Player candidate, Erik Spoelstra as a Coach of the Year option and even Butler as a Most Valuable Player darkhorse. My co-hosts on Five on the Floor took a little more time, perhaps. But they came around too. They saw what I saw and kept saying — if you give Spoelstra an less cluttered roster full of motivated players with a defensive mindset, special things can happen.

So we’re not surprised about this, not completely, not on the Five on the Floor podcast. Impressed, but not surprised. Not that it’s gone well. This well? Starting 17-6, after a 110-105 overtime victory against the Chicago Bulls on Sunday evening, giving them as more wins than 25 of 29 other teams? Winning all 10 home games, after underperforming badly at American Airlines Arena in recent seasons? Losing only to teams that are currently in the playoffs, with all but Minnesota well over .500 entering Sunday’s play? Doing this while shelving more than $25 million (James Johnson, Dion Waiters) for assorted issues; while missing two of the three primary ballhandlers (Justise Winslow, Goran Dragic) of late; while relying on two rookies (Herro, Kendrick Nunn), one 19 and one undrafted, as two of their five leading scorers; while counting on two more projects (Duncan Robinson, Chris Silva) in the rotation?

Posting the same record through 23 games as the LeBron-Wade-Bosh Big Three Heat did in each of their final three seasons together, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14? And two games better than that Hall of Fame-stacked squad did in its first season together (2010-11)? A game better than the Heat started in Shaquille O’Neal’s first season (2004-05)? Four games better than the Heat started after acquiring Alonzo Mourning (1995-96)? And, of course, nine games better through 23 than during Dwyane Wade’s rookie season?

OK, maybe a little.

But it’s real.

This is what the Heat are — or at least, this is the floor. There likely won’t be a championship, not yet, but there won’t be a collapse. Barring a major injury, something more significant to a primary contributor than what has caused Winslow and Dragic to miss 18 combined games, with both soon to return, this team should continue to improve as the season progresses. There’s simply no reason they shouldn’t. Yes, there will be bumps. Every season, every roster, has them. The Big Three teams had them. So why wouldn’t these guys? We’ve already seen Nunn encounter some, especially on the road against better opponents, with prepared teams taking advantage of his tunnel vision. We’ve seen Adebayo pass when he should shoot; that played a prominent role in his seven turnovers Sunday, the only nit in his otherwise superlative statline. We’ve seen Butler struggle more with his jumpshot than in recent seasons. And we haven’t seen enough of Winslow and Butler together to know whether, offensively, it can really work.

But you know what else we’ve seen?

Trust in each other.

Passion under pressure.

Growth individually, and together.

And winning at less than their best.

Take Sunday. Yes, take it. Embrace it, in all of its ugliness. Choppy. Uneven. Unsightly at times. And yet, when it mattered, when the customary closer (Butler) had lost his legs, when his shots were coming up short — when he was already so weary that he would spend several minutes slumped in his locker stall later, acknowledging his exhaustion — he turned to a kid who was born exactly one year prior to George W. Bush’s first inauguration. A kid most of Miami didn’t want Pat Riley to select, even with John Calipari’s endorsement and that Kentucky pedigree. A kid who wore the loudest outfit on draft night but speaks to media members in the quietest voice. A kid who has that ideal combination of conformity and cockiness, who wants to work and then work his opponents over. A kid who won over a demanding, star teammate in a way that three former No. 1 overall picks (guys named Towns and Wiggins and Simmons) clearly did not in previous stops.

A kid who scored 27, including three three-pointers at critical times after a slow start to the night, including 16 of the Heat’s final 18, including 11 in overtime.

“You saw in college, with the biggest moments, that’s where he was playing his best,” Spoelstra said Sunday of Herro. “If your max player trusts you in these moments….”

That Butler does. Implicitly.

“We’ve got a lot in common, to tell you the truth,” Butler said. “But more than anything, I respect the way he works, the way he carries himself.”

Their big/little brother bond is obvious. Been obvious. And that trust has been remarkable and refreshing.

But not more than Herro trusts himself. He trusts his shot like he trusts his wardrobe. As he told me when I asked in camp who has the most “drip” in the NBA: “I do.” Who’s second? “No one’s close.”

Sunday, the Bulls weren’t close enough to him on the floor. Not after Butler drew the defense. Not after scrambles.

Not when it counted.

It looked like he was seeking those opportunities. To be the hero or goat.

At 19.

Sunday night, he stood in front of the locker stall that LeBron and Shaq once did.

“Uh, yeah,” Herro said. “I don’t shy away from taking the big shot. I have a lot of confidence. So down the stretch, Jimmy trusts me with the ball. He got me it in good spots, and I knocked down a couple of threes.”

Matter of fact.

Surprised the Bulls weren’t closing out harder?

“They had to pick their poison, either Jimmy or me,” Herro said, with a hint of a laugh.

Then he remembered he’s a rookie. On a team like this. Where everyone praises. Everyone trusts. No one steps out too much, drip or no drip.

“… Or… there were three other guys on the floor with us, that will hurt them too. So they had to pick their poison.”

Some fans picked up and left when LeBron did. It got too difficult. Too many Henry Walkers and Danny Grangers. Too little Bosh. Too many poor offseason decisions, at least during 2016 and 2017. Too much heartache when Wade bolted, at least until he returned. Too little that was real, even that 30-11 finish to 2016-17 that duped the front office even more than it did the public. But this organization never stays down too long. It reinvents. It reinvigorates. It reminds you of what it has been, and likely will be again. Sunday, a kid who looks nothing like Wade brought back memories of how Wade introduced himself way back in 2003, with moments like these, moments that let you know he was different, and his teams would be different. Moments that made you look forward to years. Moments that confirm what we’ve been seeing and hearing since the spring and summer, when the moves all started to make sense — and if you started paying attention then, or even now, you picked a damn good time to come back.

Ethan J. Skolnick has covered the Miami Heat since 1996, and now hosts the Five on the Floor podcast. 

 

The Mourning Edition: The Miami Heat’s First Quarter Checkup

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Welcome to The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The Miami Heat are the NBA’s most predictable team.

Unless they’re not.

They both are who we thought they were and nothing like we imagined. And they might metamorphose several times over during the upcoming months.

They have core philosophies built around dogged defense and cohesive culture, but so much about this iteration of South Beach’s finest remains unknown.

Miami might be way ahead of schedule. Or it may not be ready for the Association’s aristocracy. It could have its first alpha scorer of the post-Big Three era. But Jimmy Butler isn’t always looking for his shot, and a lot of times, he shouldn’t.

This could be a slow climb toward title contention. But if Pat Riley gets antsy, maybe he consolidates the prospect collection in a megamove for an accelerating star.

That’s a long-winded way of saying even at the quarter-mark of the 2019-20 season, it’s unclear who these Heat are⁠—or what they can become. Still, there’s enough data on file for us to take stock what’s real, what maybe isn’t and what could change down the road.

The Foundation

There are three key cogs in this Miami machine: Butler, Bam Adebayo and Justise Winslow. (If you’re unclear whether Winslow belongs in that triad, you should try watching a game some time.) OK, it’s really five with Riley and Erik Spoelstra added to the mix.

Under that quartet, the backbone becomes obvious. It’s defense, versatility and a military-like commitment to conditioning designed to exhaust the opposition.

“Miami’s always been the team that everybody around the league respects because they play hard, they have a DNA, they have an identity,” Phoenix Suns coach Monty Williams said.

“Their approach never changes in terms of who they are,” Golden State Warriors skipper Steve Kerr said during a recent visit to South Florida. “They’re always tough, defensive-minded.”

Some stoppers may be stingier than others, but the expectations are consistent across the board. When sharpshooting rookie Tyler Herro showed up, they tasked him with guarding Butler⁠—on day one.

Roughly two weeks into his NBA career, Herro booted Butler out of the way so he could defend Devin Booker, one of only 11 players ranked among the top-25 in points and assists per game.

That’s the manifestation of culture, the transfer of hoops DNA.

That’s how a team overhauls its roster—five of last season’s top nine in minutes played are gone, and one is out of the rotation (Dion Waiters)—and still snags the eighth overall spot in defensive efficiency, with ample room for improvement.

On the offensive end, the team-wide commitment to movement is no different.

When Butler arrives with a $140 million contract in hand and four All-Star selections to his credit and still shares the sugar, how can the rest not fall in line? No one has pondered that question, because everyone is on board. Miami, which doesn’t really have a natural point guard on the roster, sits sixth in assist percentage and seventh in points created by assists.

As Spo likes to put it, the Heat are “building habits.” The more they can carry forward, the more sustainable this success becomes.

The Possible Pitfalls

If the campaign closed today, Miami would have its third-highest winning percentage in franchise history.

Clearly, this club is better than almost everyone realized. But is it really headed toward a more successful season than three of the four Big Three campaigns? That’s probably asking too much of this roster.

Butler looks comfortable as a closer and capable of typically delivering whatever this team needs. But he doesn’t always seize control of this offense in moments when it’s obviously waiting on his guidance.

“Sometimes he’s too passive,” Bam Adebayo said earlier this season. “I got to get on his ass a little bit when he’s too passive. I got to over there and whisper in his ear and be like, ‘Yo, we didn’t bring you here to just pass.'”

Two of the Heat’s top-five scorers are freshmen. Some might chalk that up as Herro and Kendrick Nunn having advanced ability and maturity, and that’s partly true. But the players are still rookies, and it shows when they play away from AmericanAirlines Arena or against the league’s top competition.

Herro has been a 54.0 percent shooter and 48.7 percent three-point sniper inside the AAA. Away from it, those numbers plummet to 38.1 and 32.9, respectively. With Nunn, he loses nearly five field-goal percentage points (46.1 to 42.6) and more than 14 percentage points off his perimeter conversion rate (44.2 to 30.2) when he balls away from Biscayne.

The two have also struggled against the juggernauts. Boil down their production to contenders only—Boston, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Toronto—and Nunn becomes a 30 percent shooter (20 from deep) while Herro lands at 35.2 (32.6).

It’s emblematic of their offensive struggles overall against the league’s stone walls. As Heat.com’s Couper Moorhead observed, the Heat are 29th in offense against top 10 defenses and shot an anemic 31.8 percent from distance in those games.

None of this means the sky is falling. But there were reasons we all looked at this roster before the season and wondered if it had enough scoring or sniping.

The Growth Potential

The quarter checkup on the Heat gets no more encouraging than this—They have a 16-6 record despite being in the early stages of their evolution.

Butler will only get more comfortable grabbing control of this attack, as he already has with two triple-doubles in his last three games. Adebayo will keep developing on the offensive end; his flashes make you salivate. Winslow will find his niche, or given his Swiss Army knife abilities, maybe a dozen different niches.

Spo has some aces up his sleeve he may not reveal for months. His possible closing lineup of Butler, Adebayo, Winslow, Herro and Kelly Olynyk has logged just six minutes together. Swap out Herro for Goran Dragic, and you have a quintet that’s yet to see the floor.

Derrick Jones Jr. or James Johnson could give this rotation a new twist. Riley might give it a more dramatic makeover if a second star fits his price range and doesn’t disrupt the 2021 financial outlook.

We’ve seen plenty from the Heat, but almost assuredly not their best.

“We’re capable of it,” Butler told reporters recently. “We are. When we lock in and we worry about ourselves and we get lost in it and play hard, we’re going to be a very good team.”

GUTS CHECK: Dragic Delivers, Herro Heroics, Jimmy the Closer

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Lost at Houston 117-108
  • Won vs Golden State 122-105
  • Won at Brooklyn 109-106

Current Record: 14-5, 3rd in the Eastern Conference

 Goran Guts

After seeing Dragic nearly dealt this summer I was resigned to the possibility that Dragon was the player most likely to be traded out of everyone on the entire roster. A $20 million dollar expiring contract? Former All Star, veteran point guard available via trade? It felt inevitable he would be a hot name on the NBA trade rumor mill all season.

Forgive me Gogi! I was so wrong.

Dragic is flat out balling. Nearly indispensable most nights, he has proven to be a key cog off the bench in this new role. Goran Dragic is doing the things that earn you Heat Lifer status.

Dragic is firmly in the early race for 6th man of the year honors, particularly if the Heat continue to win at it’s current mid .700% clip.

Forget a mere expiring contract, barring an unforeseen star level talent becoming available, I don’t see a reasonable scenario where it make sense to trade Dragic. He’s been a Top 3 player since Opening Night.

It helps that Jimmy is in Goran’s corner in such a major way.

Did anyone see that coming? Does anyone even have the guts to tell Jimmy otherwise?

Seeing Dragic accept whatever role necessary to help impact winning, approach this season with vigor that is showing by virtue of the rejuvenated shooting touch (among other things) really begs the question – will Miami explore retaining Dragic on a team friendly deal (if possible) this summer?

An argument could be made that the emergence of Kendrick Nunn, combined with the commitment to Justise Winslow makes the idea of retaining Dragic long term appear far-fetched. However, I think we might be surprised at what unfolds in that regard when the time arrives next summer.

Herro Heroics

I don’t really have a bunch of stats handy to support this next statement but here goes…

Tyler Herro is going to be a star. A STAR.

He is the most polished Heat rookie in the history of the franchise. Yeah, it’s precisely like that.

Kid is so smooth. Absolutely insane body control, footwork, ability to maintain his follow through no matter the circumstance. I think I’m in love.

The way he raises up and gets his looks despite sometimes being pressured (at an athletic disadvantage I might add) is straight out of the Ray Allen book of shot making.

For now, the Heat should consider Tyler Herro the closest thing to an untouchable player they have on the roster. (Jimmy & UD excluded).

Meyers Leonard for the Culture

5 on the Floor podcast extraordinaire Alphonse Sidney’s main man is earning Heat Culture clout left and right.

That comment makes Heat fans want to run through walls for Meyers. Who knew the Heat would get such a significantly better fit both on and off the court when they swapped Whiteside for Leonard? We all did.

Shame on us for not identifying a young player playing for a contract who is taking advantage of the Culture.

Box score watchers will scoff at Leonard’s ability to secure a long-term deal of any significance this summer. However, if he works together with the organization on a potential one-year deal, he could conceivably secure a wink-wink mid-level exception pay back in summer 2021 from the Heat. They love what he brings to the team.

Always Be Closing: A Butler Chronicle

What we watched unfold at the end of the game in Brooklyn was the living embodiment of why you obtain the Jimmy Butlers of the world. Why you do it at all costs. Having a player that can impose his will and steal games, particularly on the road, is not quantifiable on the stat sheet.

Jimmy took complete control of the end of the game against Brooklyn in a way that was downright comforting to watch. The way he dictated tempo and forced the refs to make decisions was the stuff Heat Culture Alphas are made of. We finally have that guy again!

As always, IRWT.

That’s it for this week, but let’s say it loud and clear…all in together now….

This Heat team is for real.

Launching Pad: Bam’s Barriers, Winslow’s Return, Herro’s Happy Feet

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 14-5 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 109.5 (114.3)

• Defensive Rating: 103.5 (107.0)

• Net Rating: plus-6.0 (plus-7.3)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.1 (59.6)

• Pace: 101.1 (99.8)

• Time of Possession: 14.5 seconds (14.7)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk

• Minutes: 10

• Offensive Rating: 160.0

• Defensive Rating: 109.5

• Net Rating: plus-50.5

• True-Shooting Percentage: 77.2

• Pace: 98.73

The Big Number: 31.1

You can bank on three things in this thing called life: death, taxes, and the Heat having one of the best defenses in the league.

As of today, the Heat rank 7th in defensive rating. They’ve done so behind a “drop” scheme that has effectively kept opponents out of the paint (7th fewest rim attempts allowed). On the other hand, they’ve also bled three-point attempts, particularly above the break. Opponents are attempting nearly 28 above-the-break triples per game, the 6th most in the league.

The good news: teams are only converting 31.1 percent of those looks, a number that only ranks behind the Chicago Bulls (31.0) and the Denver Nuggets (30.5).

That specific portion of the Heat’s defense will be tested this week with match-ups against the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, and the Washington Wizards. All three squads have pull-up artists that can make the Heat pay from deep if the ball pressure isn’t there.

Weekly Trends

1. Bam’s half-court struggles

We talked about Miami’s half-court offense in last week’s edition, but mostly within the context of their loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. The general verdict was that the Heat needed more on-ball juice from the perimeter, and there needed to be some sort of plan for Bam Adebayo.

It’s safe to say we got a glimpse of that in Sunday’s match-up against the Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets bigs, as they generally do against non-shooters, basically ignored Adebayo in the half-court. Their “one-man zone” kept Jarrett Allen or DeAndre Jordan at the basket while Adebayo operated from the perimeter.

Just look at the contrast between how Adebayo guards Jordan, and how that flips on the other end.

 

 

For the most part, the results weren’t great. Adebayo missed some jumpers, forced some passes, and ultimately looked flustered. The fact that he finished with 17 & 16 is a testament to his never-ending motor.

There’s some work to be done here. A bunch of this rides on Adebayo and his confidence. He needs to become respected as an on-ball threat. That won’t come without reps.

If teams are going to instruct their centers to basically ignore him outside of the paint, he needs to do one of two things for himself. Either he has to pull the trigger on more mid-range attempts (he’s 15-of-31 on shots between 10-19 feet), or he has to use the runway teams are giving him to explode to the basket.

More of that, please.

The Heat also need to also need to make sure they’re putting Adebayo in positions to succeed when teams employ that strategy. If they aren’t going to break from their handoff counters (which isn’t a bad thing), we’re going to need to see more of the Tyler Herro-Adebayo pairing. Herro is the best pull-up shooter the Heat have, and will be able make aggressive “drop” defenses pay if they play with a huge cushion.

2. Justise Winslow’s return

Miami’s favorite enigma returned to action on Wednesday against the Houston Rockets. His minutes haven’t exactly been limited since he’s been back (30.3), but Erik Spoelstra has notably (and, to this point, correctly) decided to bring Winslow off the bench.

Nothing from Winslow’s three-game stint should be surprising. The playmaking flashes have still been there:

 

 

He’s defended pretty well when he’s been on the perimeter. His 4th quarter defense against Spencer Dinwiddie on Sunday was particularly impressive. Winslow remains quite good at wiggling through screens and staying connected to ball handlers.

On the flip side, Winslow hasn’t had much success at all as a scorer. He’s hit half of his shots at the rim (4-of-8) and has been a disaster outside of the paint. The three-point shot isn’t just off right now; it looks different.

I’m no shot doctor, but it seems like he’s tinkered with his release point in an effort to speed things up. It may very well pay off in the long run, but it’s hard not to cringe at stuff like this:

 

 

Winslow coming off the bench has also meant playing a ton of minutes at the 4 defensively. It … hasn’t looked great. Winslow at the 4 should be complemented by a shift towards switching. Instead, the Heat have mostly elected to maintain their “drop” principles, leading to some pretty ugly miscommunications.

Time will heal some of those wounds. As ugly as it’s been for Winslow at times, the Heat have still been much better with him on the court since he’s returned. The offense plays faster and shoots better from the field. The defense is stingier and has a higher success rate ending possessions.

It’s okay to be concerned with Winslow’s half-court fit, but just remember there’s a multi-year sample at play with the Heat outscoring their opponents with Winslow on the floor.

Be patient.

3. The balance of Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro was rightfully dubbed with the “knockdown shooter” rep coming out of Kentucky. Some of us [coughs] questioned what else brought to the table, and he’s mostly shut some of us [clears throat] up with plus-passing feel and a growing catalog of get-out-of-my-way contested rebounds.

Still, the shooting is the calling card. Herro’s numbers are almost unprecedented for a rookie. They include, but are not limited to:

-a 40.4 percent from three on over five attempts

-a 1.57 (!!!) point per possession clip on spot-ups (99th percentile, via Synergy)

-an 82.7 adjusted field goal percentage on spot-ups

-a 1.83 point per possession clip on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (98th percentile)

Herro isn’t just a great shooter; he’s (statistically) on the path to become a true defense shifter in that regard. It’s easy to be impressed by his touch, but his footwork (settle down, Mr. Ryan) is what really steals the show when you watch. It doesn’t take much time or effort for him to set up shop, and that allows him to flow into pull-ups or side-step attempts easier than most.

 

 

Whew.

Bonus: Kelly Olynyk has found his groove

If you thought a six-minute outing against the Nets would prevent me from talking about Kelly Olynyk, you are sadly mistaken.

(His section was replaced by Herro’s, so I guess you weren’t that mistaken.)

Olynyk struggled to adjust to Miami’s screen-heavy offense in the early goings of the season. Over the past week or so, he’s found ways to inject his brand of spontaneity. The pitch-and-go chemistry with Winslow has picked up where it left off. He’s drilling above-the-break threes. Heck, his willingness to take them is a breath of fresh air in comparison to Miami’s starting center.

His play-style is plodding and weird. It never looks like it’s supposed to work, but it just … does?

 

 

The Heat have been nearly 19 points per 100 possessions better with Olynyk on the floor over their last five games. It’s safe to say he’s back in the flow of things.

Set Play of the Week

Draggin’ along

If you paid any attention to the Heat this preseason, you would’ve immediately picked up on their increased frequency of pick-and-rolls featuring two screeners. “Double Drag” is a common action across the league; Heat fans in particular should remember Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks doing whatever they wanted out of it last season.

The fundamental purpose of Double Drag is to strain multiple defenders at once. Against (what’s left of) the Golden State Warriors, the Heat added some decoy action to further scramble them.

The possession begins with Winslow bringing the ball up the floor. Goran Dragic executes an Iverson cut (running off two staggered screens) before receiving a pass on the right wing. The drag screen action then begins with Herro and Chris Silva as screeners.

The starting position of the pick-and-roll is already unusual; the added wrinkle of a spacer (Herro) slipping the screen is something that Steve Kerr would specifically appreciate.

The Warriors end up committing two to the ball, leaving Herro open in the corner. Dragic finds Hero, who caps off the possession with a pump fake, a side-step, and a rainbow.