GUTS CHECK: Recent Success, The Next 10, Spurs Trades, Sixers reaction

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won vs Cleveland 124-100
  • Won at Chicago 116-108
  • Lost at Philadelphia 113-86
  • Won vs Charlotte 117-100

Reflection Eternal

The week of Thanksgiving brings about a time for reflection of course.

Back on November 12th, the Heat returned home to face the Pistons after most recently losing in Los Angeles to move to 6-3 on the season. Despite losing 2 out of 3 on that west coast swing I talked about how the next 7-game stretch provided opportunity for the Heat to take off.

The goal was to go 6-1 in the next 7 games. Fast forward to today, and they did just that. The Heat knocked off the Hornets last night in impressive fashion to move to 12-4 on the season. 7-0 at home.

This is how I approach each season. Break it up into chunks. Especially with a team full of young players finding their way in new roles.

Consider the last two weeks of Miami Heat basketball a success. Short term mission accomplished.

It’s okay to be happy about where we are at this point of the season. Complaining is merely optional.

The Next 10

The Heat’s next 10 games culminate on the road in Dallas on December 14th. The significance of the timing to follow is that players signed last summer in 2019 free agency will be eligible to be traded on December 15th.

This also will mark the Heat surpassing the first 25 games of the season, with that being a magic number for the front office as it evaluates the roster. The 25 mark is intended to represent the first deep dive into viable trade scenarios. Which I have been told was the plan in place all along.

Side note: Heat will explore Demar Derozan and LaMarcus Aldridge if the Spurs press the eject button on this season.

Riley has pursued both in the past and the fact that many trade packages being floated could/would preserve 2021 flexibility makes for particularly intriguing short term options. Issue will be cost. Riley has been especially fond of Aldridge since his Blazer days.

However, I wouldn’t even rule out consideration being made to parting with Winslow if it meant they could shed Dion Waiters and James Johnson in the process. Just my 2 pennies. However, I think they rather see Winslow, Butler and Adebayo play together for an extended stretch before making any rash decisions.

Anyway, let’s look at the next 10 games in a snapshot:

Wed, 11/27 at Rockets

Fri, 11/29 vs Warriors

Sun, 12/1 at Nets

Tue, 12/3 at Raptors

Wed, 12/4 at Celtics

Fri, 12/6 vs Wizards

Sun, 12/8 vs Bulls

12/10 vs Hawks

12/13 vs Lakers

12/14 at Mavericks

Coach Spo talked about finding out what the team was made of versus Philadelphia (more on that in a second) but truthfully this next 10 games will tell us infinitely more.

The goal for this stretch?

7-3 and you consider it a resounding success. 6-4 is probably the realistic target. 6-4 or better would be enough to continue to approach any roster shakeup with caution. You probably even take 5-5 in the grand scheme. But at that point you start to explore potential upgrades, particularly buy low candidates. Cough LMA/Demar cough, cough.

4 of the next 5 games on the road, 3 against East playoff teams (plus 1 against a team that owes us an ass beating) makes the most immediate portion of our next 10 games the most daunting.

Got Guts?

In closing, what in the hell happened from Heat Nation on Saturday and Sunday after that Sixers loss?

Get a grip. It’s one game.

I’ve seen firm declarations about Philly’s size and the Heat’s matchup issues. I understand the potential challenges, but it’s November. We did not get any favors from the schedule Gods and were overdue for a bad shooting night.

Relax.

Josh Richardson went crazy, that isn’t happening over the course of a playoff series. If it does, that would be Hornets Jamal Mashburn all over again wouldn’t it? Gross to ponder. Luckily, Jimmy Butler isn’t Eddie Jones.

I think we will be surprised at how all of these perceived “mismatches” look when the teams meet again. Adjustments will be made. Despite what you may read on social media, Bam Adebayo can combat Joel Embiid playing him for the pass without turning into Brook Lopez.

Also, Justise Winslow is needed against a team like Philadelphia more than any other matchup.

Speaking of Justise, it sounds like #JustiseBetter now health wise. Hopefully we see him play in his hometown of Houston, TX on Wednesday.

 

Launching Pad: Half-Court Hiccups, Silva Slips, Duncan Decision

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 11-4 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 108.2 (110.1)

• Defensive Rating: 102.5 (107.7)

• Net Rating: plus-5.7 (plus-2.4)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.0 (60.4)

• Pace: 101.46 (99.0)

• Time of Possession: 14.4 seconds (15.0)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Chris Silva, Kelly Olynyk

• Minutes: 12

• Offensive Rating: 116.7

• Defensive Rating: 75.0

• Net Rating: plus-41.7

• True-Shooting Percentage: 61.2

• Pace: 92.41

The Big Number: 1.04

I’m here to make the case that the Heat are, at least statistically, the weirdest offensive team in the league. They’re insanely efficient, leading the NBA in true-shooting percentage. They’re also dead-last in turnover rate, giving it up on nearly 19 percent of their possessions. We’ll get into the nuts and bolts of their half-court offense shortly, but they’ve scored at the 7th best per-possession rate in the league.

If it were even possible, the Heat are even more confusing as a transition team. Despite ranking 12th in transition efficiency (110.6 points per 100 transition opportunities), they are the worst team in the NBA in converting buckets after turnovers. Their 1.04 point-per-possession mark is well below the 29th ranked Portland Trail Blazers (1.10).

You would think that kind of thing will regress positively as the year goes on, but it’s hard to put anything past this offense.

Weekly Trends

1. The Heat’s half-court elephant

Before I really dig in here, let me lay out the obvious caveats that have and will be ignored on Twitter.

Yes, the Miami Heat are really good, and have performed as an upper-echelon team in the East to this point.

Regular season games can inform, but it would be malpractice to overreact to one (1) game, particularly one on the road, and especially one on the road after playing less than 24 hours beforehand.

The Heat have been without Justise Winslow, who is, conservatively, their third best player. His versatility on both ends of the floor unlock a lot of what the Heat want to accomplish. His absence hurts in high-leverage match-ups.

Now, with that being said …

[takes a deep breath]

The Philadelphia Sixers showed just how far away the Heat are from being true contenders in the East on Saturday night.

It isn’t so much about the score, though a 113-86 drubbing doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence. There was some randomness at play that made the result look much worse than it was. For instance, the trio of Robinson, Nunn, and Meyers Leonard went a combined 0-of-9 from three. Most of those shots were wide open.

The process was worrisome, though. More specifically: the Heat have been able to flow with a cut-heavy, pass-happy half-court offense that just doesn’t work against teams as lengthy as Philadelphia. The Heat have already struggled with turnovers. When you have Joel Embiid playing eight or so feet off of Bam Adebayo as he operates from the elbow, life becomes much harder.

There’s nothing wrong with an egalitarian approach offensively. There’s value in empowering everyone, and Jimmy Butler has spearheaded that on and off the floor. I do think, however, it’s worth exploring just how much of that approach comes out of necessity.

The Heat’s most frequent pick-and-roll ball-handlers (passes excluded) — Goran Dragic, Nunn, and Butler – have generated 202 points on 240 possessions (0.841 points per possession). That number is simultaneously being brought down by Butler’s rough start (0.629 PPP) and held together by Nunn shooting 50 percent in those situations.

The Heat needed Butler to lead the charge on Saturday, and he couldn’t. Bad nights happen, so it shouldn’t be some sort of huge indictment. But this is the kind of match-up that validates Trade Machine Truthers; the Heat still appear to be a creator short. Winslow’s return will help, but Nunn may be the Heat’s best secondary shot creator. That .. isn’t a great sign through the lens of contention.

2. Catch ’em slippin’

Chris Silva has become a bit of a cult hero. His per-game numbers don’t jump off the page, but it’s hard not to like him when you pay attention. He’s a Dirty Work All-Star, doing his damage as an offensive rebounder and rim challenger.

(He hacks a ton — averaging 9.5 fouls per 36 minutes. That needs to be cleaned up soon.)

Silva sets good screens off the ball, but opts for slipping in pick-and-roll. He changes direction incredibly well, and has a good feel for defensive gaps. Once he senses a crease, he finds the pocket and dives right into it.

 

 

Silva has only registered seven possessions as the roller in pick-and-roll, via Synergy, but has already racked up 13 points. He’s a perfect 5-of-5 from the field as the roll-man, and four of those come via slips.

I’m all for calling him The Big Slipper — a play off of Wilt Chamberlain’s “Big Dipper” moniker.

3. Duncan Robinson’s starting claim

I’ve hinted at it before, let’s get definitive: Duncan Robinson deserves a full-time starting spot.

Robinson’s primary value comes as a spacer. He’s drilling 40.2 percent of his threes on hefty volume (6.5 attempts). Only 10 other players are shooting at least 40 percent on six or more attempts. Robinson is elite as a stand-still threat, but throws defenses for a loop with his off-ball movement. Whether he’s coming off screens or reading ball-handlers, Robinson bends defenses with his ability to relocate.

 

 

As of now, Robinson is still holding his weight defensively. He keeps his head on a swivel and mostly rotates on time. We’ve seen some nice strip/block flashes in transition, which … yeah, I didn’t really see those coming based on what he showed last season.

Robinson’s name appears in three of the Heat’s top five lineups that have been used this season, which is impressive considering that excludes the current starting lineup (plus-13.6). As long as the Heat aren’t blitzed defensively with him on the floor, there’s really no reason to pull him from the lineup.

Set Play of the Week

Going against the grain

Defending shooters in today’s NBA is tough enough. When coaches employ them as screeners (hello, Steve Kerr), defenses are forced into uncomfortable decisions. Fight over? Switch? Pray?

As covered in last week’s edition, the Heat have been getting mileage out of looping their shooters around in hopes of causing confusion. It’s what makes this play even more notable.

 

 

Above, Robinson kicks off the action by wrapping around Tyler Herro. The next option, assuming a switch comes, is for Robinson to screen for Herro before he flares out behind Silva. Fortunately for the Heat, switch doesn’t come.

Robinson’s defender stays attached, which would be fine if Robinson wasn’t now three feet from the rim. Robinson seals him off; Dragic delivers the pass, and the ball goes through the hoop.

It was one of many, many, many examples of the Bulls being exploited defensively. It’s also a window into how much of a pain it is to track shooters in tight spaces.

TEAM – Together. Everyone. Achieves. More. The 19-20 Heat.

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Ever since LeBron spurned Miami for Wasteland – Cleveland, HEAT fans have been desperate for the NEXT move. Even new signings are immediately viewed as “tradeable assets” to acquire the next guy. As children of Riley, we’re born and bred with the mindset of always keeping an eye on the future. We all fall victim to the trade machine. December 15 is practically a holiday on Twitter as we flood our timelines with hypothetical “who says no?” trade scenarios.

 

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Except, this season feels different. This current HEAT roster has quickly captivated the hearts of local fans and the attention of the national media. The energy, the selflessness, the toughness – THIS is what Miami Heat basketball is supposed to look like. For the first time since 2014, HEAT fans are living in the moment. Don’t believe me? Look for yourself….

 

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Not since 2003 have the Miami Heat had such a lovable squad. This is the most cohesive HEAT team I can remember in years! It’s not only that the pieces fit perfectly, it’s the way they play together.

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And that motto we love to throw around that defines our CULTURE – the hardest-working, best conditioned, most professional, unselfish, toughest, meanest, nastiest team in the NBA– is exactly how we would define the 2019-2020 HEAT team. It’s never been more evident than Wednesday night when Duncan “SNIPERSON” displayed his lethal stroke from downtown, draining NINE three pointers against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Every guy on the HEAT bench was on their feet with excitement as the ball went through the net.

What other franchise can take G-League players and turn them into legit NBA rotation pieces or, in the case of Kenrick Nunn, potential stars? Fans can talk themselves into believing they have a chance with any team, but this year, the Eastern Conference is truly up for grabs. And at a time when most HEAT fans are usually banging the table for Riley to work his trade magic, we are instead collectively rooting to see what this group as currently constructed can accomplish in the playoffs.

 

HEAT fans have patiently waited for a team to take the reins and lead the CULTURE into the franchise’s next phase, the A.W. (After Wade) years. And Jimmy Butler is the perfect leader for this franchise at this moment in time.

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And don’t look now, but Chris Silva is making that 30 on his back look more like 40 with his Udonis Haslem-esque warrior mentality. No question, this team is likely another move away from contending for a championship. But our biggest strengths are our depth and team unity. One trade can completely blow that up. We’ve seen what a difference one guy can make (Hey Hassan!) on team morale. Instead, fans are rallying behind a group of guys that are more focused on winning than personal stats. A group of guys that are looking to make plays for their teammates instead of themselves. A group of guys that will scratch and claw their way for every last rebound. And a group of guys that genuinely love playing for each other.

 

That’s the type of Miami Heat team fans will go to battle with 8 days a week!

 

How could we look towards the future, when we’re so in love with the present?

 

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The Mourning Edition: The Ceiling Has Blown Through The Roof

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Welcome to The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The NBA still hasn’t noticed what’s brewing on Biscayne.

Save for the sporadic cursory glances, no one has bothered taking much stock of the new-look Miami Heat. For the select few who have, their opinions on the team that Pat Riley built land somewhere between skepticism and outright pessimism.

Jimmy Butler says he’s as happy as ever after finding a spot that fits his personality. Doubters wonder how long the honeymoon will last.

The stat sheet regards the Heat as all-caps ELITE: tied for fourth in winning percentage, third in net efficiency. Power rankers shrug their shoulders and say, ‘Yeah, but who’ve they played?’

Miami landed eighth on the most ESPN rankings, while Royce Young quipped, “The schedule set them up for a three-game winning streak.”

Grand scheme, sure, the Heat get noting for playing a dominant month of basketball. But why have hoops heads decided this is the one early-season storyline no one needs to trust?

Is it really all because Butler had some messy divorces in his past? What if it just took him a few tries to find his perfect match? If at first you don’t succeed, right?

Remember, the good vibes started long before the win column ballooned.

“I feel that the way they go about everything here is the right way,” Butler said at his introductory press conference. “That’s what I am banking on. That’s why I am here.”

He might be a four-time All-Star now, but he’s also the player who went unranked out of Tomball (Texas) High School, who opened his college career at Tyler Junior College, who wasn’t selected until 30th overall in the 2011 draft (which he now leads in win shares) and who didn’t average double-digit points until his third NBA campaign.

His story of overcoming impossibly long odds is one shared by nearly everyone inside of this organization.

Goran Dragic was a second-round pick in 2008 and didn’t become a full-time starter until his age-26 season. Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Udonis Haslem and Chris Silva were all undrafted. Even head coach Erik Spoelstra is an old video coordinator who worked his way up through the ranks, and despite winning a pair of titles, he still seems underrated.

Even the “blue chips” aren’t what they seem.

Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro were lottery picks, but neither landed in the top 10. Adebayo was recently left off a Team USA team that had trouble attracting and retaining top talents. The Ringer graded the Herro selection as a C and questioned if he’d even stay on the floor. Justise Winslow, the 10th pick in 2015, has critics within the Heat’s own fanbase.

“Everybody is an underdog here,” Butler said at training camp. “If they’re not, they go about it as if they are.”

What if that shared mentality and willingness to work has bonded this locker room tighter than any he’s been involved in? What if he’s found something here that he was missing elsewhere?

Or, and I know this is a novel idea, what if we don’t play armchair psychologist and instead hear Butler express his contentment and just take his word for it until we have a current, valid reason to do otherwise?

His happiness can change everything. It already looks like it has.

He looks completely comfortable in his pass-first, score-when-needed role, and so does everyone else in the offense. This team has the Association’s second-highest assist percentage and no real natural point guard on the roster. Butler’s impact is real, and it’s spectacular, and doubting it only for the fear it might eventually get rocky seems like a miserable way to live.

As for the schedule-obsessed skeptics, good-to-great teams have long established that standing by beating up on bottom-feeders. Last season, the champion Toronto Raptors barely had a winning record against .500-or-better teams (22-20); the 50-win Utah Jazz (20-21) and 49-win Boston Celtics(17-25) were in the red.

Good-to-great clubs handle the teams they should and more or less tread water against anyone else. That’s exactly the model Miami has followed to this point. It has a perfect 7-0 mark against losing clubs—one of only four undefeated records against them—and a 3-3 mark against .500-plus teams, counting wins over Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks and James Harden’s Rockets.

ESPN’s RPI says the Heat have faced the eighth-toughest schedule so far. Why, exactly, is their path behind held against them?

Maybe people are just running out of other reasons to doubt. The absence of a second star seemed worrisome until Bam Adebayo blossomed into that role. The longer guys like Nunn, Herro and Robinson keep rolling, the harder it is to see the rug being pulled out from underneath them.

And let’s not forget, Winslow has barely broken a sweat with this group. If he can find a way to coexist with Butler—at this point, doesn’t Spoelstra deserve the benefit of the doubt?—this team’s potential climbs even higher.

Already, though, the outlook has changed. The Heat had a chance to be pretty good; they’ve made themselves great instead.

“We can’t keep surprising people,” Butler said after the latest win, the team’s third double-digit triumph in a row. “We’re for real. I don’t think anybody wants to play against us, and that’s the way we want to keep it.”

The Heat aren’t going away, regardless if the rest of the hoops world notices or not.

GUTS CHECK: Balanced attacks, Robinson rolling, Sixers ahead

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won vs Detroit 117-108
  • Won at Cleveland 108-97
  • Won vs New Orleans 109-94

Taking Care of Business

Last week we discussed the need for the Heat to emerge 6-1 or 5-2 in this next 7 game stretch. A 3-0 undefeated week has them tracking nicely to accomplish that feat.

And wow, has this been fun to watch. The ball zipping around on offense, finishing possessions with swished threes, forcing turnovers that lead to more buckets, has made this 9-3 more entertaining than maybe 9-3 should feel. The team just looks, interacts and performs as cohesively as any group has since the Big 3 era. That’s a big deal.

Balanced Attack

Last week, we saw quality contributions from pretty much everyone. Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo – the list goes on and on. Actually, wait a minute, do not pass go, click on this link to read The Launching Pad by Nekias Duncan. No, seriously, abort this column and read TLP.  We are lucky to have him breaking down Miami Heat basketball. Nekias is a beast.

I think we can all agree that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been the two main pillars for this team so far. That is such a welcome sight. It can be argued that this duo has been the most effective two-way duo in the entire Eastern Conference.

 

Conceptually at least, Justise Winslow has been the most viable candidate to complete a trio that would complement each other gracefully.

As we know, (even though it feels like we really don’t know very much) Justise Winslow is still out with a concussion. This has forced others to continually step up.

There is something to be said for the Heat’s early season reality. The third wheel has been unpredictable moment to moment, never mind game to game. It has always been someone different depending on the matchups. One night it’s Nunn, next it’s Dragic. Tyler Herro here, Chris Silva there.

This feels more sustainable when you consider it isn’t solely based on one player carrying the load or the team shooting the lights out at an unbelievable clip. I know it sounds cliché but this is a prototypical team effort. Amazing what happens when one of the best coaches in the league gets a roster that fits.

Player to Watch

Duncan Robinson is further along than I think any of us could have predicted. Uneven play to start the preseason and the first week of the regular season had Robinson as a player that many Heat fans called to be removed from the rotation.

However, it appears Robinson is in this rotation to stay. His combination of deadly shooting, size and passable defense have proven to be a net positive.

Team sources have maintained to me since before Opening Night that they were prepared to find minutes for Robinson, they see him as a player that can have a Jason Kapono like gravitational pull that helps surrounding scoring threats.

Although he may never get to the 49-50% from deep as Kapono did in his short Heat stint, Robinson is currently attempting double the amount per game (5.8 v. 3.1) and shooting 54% from the corners. If Robinson can provide the type of gravity that players like Kapono and Ellington have in years past, on a team that shares the ball like this one, it may prove to be an indispensable safety valve all season.

In 28 MPG last week Robinson averaged 12.3 ppg, going 9/21 from behind the arc (42.9%). He also chipped in on the defensive side, netting 4 steals which was more than his total in the first 10 games combined.

Currently on pace to come within striking distance of 200 3PT FGM, it’s safe to say Robinson has seized his increased minutes in the absence of Winslow and others.

The Philly Game

Between now and the next edition of GUTS CHECK, Jimmy and the Heat will visit the Sixers. I cannot wait for that game. Mark your calendars folks, Saturday November 23rd at 7:30 pm EST. Process versus Culture in the flesh.

Jimmy versus a hostile Philly crowd, with this group of dogs behind him. Easily the early favorite for the game Heat fans are looking forward to most thus far.

Who knows, maybe Jimmy will also put in a good word with Embiid as a fit next to Bam right?

How on earth did that game not get scheduled for national television? Flex schedule anyone?

Launching Pad: Nunn’s buckets, Butler’s passing, Bambidextrous

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 9-3 (3-0, 2nd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 107.7 (113.6)

• Defensive Rating: 101.1 (102.7)

• Net Rating: plus-6.5 (plus-10.9)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.7 (64.4)

• Pace: 102.15 (97.5)

• Time of Possession: 14.3 seconds (14.6)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard

• Minutes: 11

• Offensive Rating: 117.4

• Defensive Rating: 60.0

• Net Rating: plus-57.4

• True-Shooting Percentage: 68.7

• Pace: 107.66

The Big Number: 1.434

Roughly 1/8 of the way through the NBA season, the Miami Heat remain one of the best shooting clubs in the league. They rank fourth in three-point percentage (38.4), and have five players shooting well above league with moderate-or-better volume.

Meyers Leonard is shooting a blistering 61.9 percent from deep, which makes it even more perplexing that he’s only averaging 1.9 attempts on the year. The man took four (4) threes this week!

What makes the shooting scary is that it’s come on the back of good looks. The Heat are the most efficient team in the NBA on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. They’re generating 1.434 points per possession on those looks via Synergy. A 48.8 percent clip on those shots pace the league by nearly three percentage points.

Your primary culprit: Duncan Robinson. He’s an absurd 19-of-26 (!!!) on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. When you combine that with his mostly-fine defense, it’s becoming harder to make the case that he should return to the bench when Justise Winslow returns.

Weekly Trends

1. Kendrick Nunn keeps shooting

Nunn has had an absolute roller coaster of a season so far. He’s been historic, borderline unplayable, and sneaky good all in a three-week stretch. Just look at these splits.

First five games: 22.4 points on 17.0 shots, 52/48/100 shooting split

Next four games: 9.3 points on 11.0 shots, 34/19/60 shooting split

Last three games: 21.7 points on 17.0 shots, 51/43/80 shooting split

If there’s been one source of consistency from Nunn, it’s been his willingness to take shots when he feels they’re makable.

To his credit, Nunn has been one of the NBA’s best volume pick-and-roll threats. Among 55 players that have logged at least 90 pick-and-roll possessions (passes included), Nunn ranks 9th in efficiency (1.065 PPP). He’s ahead of guys like LeBron James (1.052), D’Angelo Russell (1.032), Kyrie Irving (1.008), James Harden (1.0), and Trae Young (0.983).

Nunn has the profile of a three-level scorer so far. He’s converting roughly 65 percent of his shots at the rim, 47.4 percent of his middies, and 41.2 percent of his above-the-break threes. His ability to make shots with forward momentum — pull-up jumpers, floaters, hang-in-the-air layups — have made him difficult to defend with a head of steam, especially in transition.

 

 

Nunn’s a hot-and-cold bucket-getter at this stage. Luckily for the Heat, he’s running hot right now.

2. Point Jimmy

Who the heck is this guy?

When the Heat added Butler, they were expecting to add a bonafide number scoring option. Through nine games, Butler only has one 25-plus point outing under his belt. His 18.4 scoring average, if it holds, would be the lowest it’s been since the 2013-14 season.

Yet, the vibe right now is that his passive style is intentional.

Butler is averaging a career-high 7.2 assists, well above his previous high of 5.5 in 2016-17. He’s made it a point to empower the players surrounding him. It’s why Nunn can afford to shoot until his arms fall off. It’s why Bam Adebayo can stretch himself as an intermediate threat.

Via NBA.com’s tracking data, Adebayo and Nunn are Butler’s favorite targets, receiving 11.7 and 9.8 passes per game from him respectively. Adebayo is converting 61.5 percent of his shots off of Butler passes, while Nunn is boasting a 50/50 shooting split.

Butler is spreading the wealth, and doing so in a myriad of ways. He’s operated as the post hub of Miami’s split action sets, run pick-and-rolls, engineered transition opportunities, and found guys in scramble situations.

 

 

At a certain point, Butler will have to assert himself more as a scorer. For now, though, it’s hard to argue with the process or the results.

3. Bam’s off-hand work

Speaking of assertiveness, let’s give a quick hat-tip to Adebayo for doing a little bit of everything on offense. I talked about him in this space last week so there isn’t need to rehash everything. One thing that I missed was his off-hand improvement.

It appears Adebayo has made a concerted effort to become an ambidextrous finisher. Before the Heat’s matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday, I made a compilation of all of his left-handed finishes this season.

He only logged one shot attempt with his left on Saturday, a missed dunk off of a lob. Still, a 7-of-15 clip (46.7 percent) for a big that struggled with non-dunk finishes with either hand last year is something to build on.

Set Play of the Week

Runnin’ in circles

It feels like the Heat are adding in a new off-ball screening wrinkle every week. The play I wanted to focus in on looks like their post split action flipped on its head. Instead of going north-south, the Heat are working east-west beyond the arc.

 

 

The Heat busted out this bad boy a few times against the Detroit Pistons. The logic is sound: let’s put stress on Detroit’s weak perimeter defenders until they make a mistake.

This play gives off the look of staggered screen action for Robinson (running off two angled picks), but then Robinson curls inside. This serves as the first read. If the Pistons don’t switch, that will leave Luke Kennard trailing Robinson, and Bruce Brown following Nunn over a screen from Adebayo. With Nunn being a plus-shooter, Andre Drummond would have to stay high to take away a pull-up triple.

Of course, the Pistons switch, so the Heat flow into part two of the action. Nunn is still scheduled to come off the Adebayo screen, but with the switch and Kennard’s positioning, he isn’t able to come off cleanly. But thanks to Kennard essentially face-guarding, Nunn is able to reverse course, creating a 2-on-1 on the other side of the screen.

Brown sees the Nunn-Robinson screen coming and tries to call out the switch, but by then it’s too late. A push-off from Robinson creates an extra foot or two of space. Butler feeds Robinson, and he drills the bomb.

Improv is fun, folks.

Sights & Sounds: Hurricanes Basketball Beats Quinnipiac 80-52

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The Mourning Edition: Miami Heat’s Winning Time Is Coming Early

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Welcome to the first dispatch of The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The Miami Heat shouldn’t be breathing this easy.

Not when they’re playing faster than any team in franchise history. Not when they’re incorporating a host of newcomers, including every-night starter Kendrick Nunn and second-team-minutes-per-game leader Tyler Herro. Not when they’re already working around a number of absences, both for injury reasons and…let’s just say otherwise.

That’s enough to tire any team out; yes, even one that bills itself as the Association’s “best-conditioned, hardest-working…” you know the rest.

But the Heat aren’t wheezing in the slightest. They keep running opponents off the floor, usually shortly after the opening tip gets tossed.

They’ve already had their most lopsided quarter in franchise history, when they amassed a 46-14 first-frame advantage over a Rockets team on a 60-win pace. That was the most extreme example of their out-of-the-gate sprints, but their early execution has been so precise, world-class surgeons should take not.

Their first-half net efficiency rating is an NBA-best plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions. No one else is clearing double digits, and only three other teams sit north of plus-7.5. Their assist percentage through the first 24 minutes is an absurd 71.3. To put that number in context, the Golden State Warriors paced the category last season at 66.8.

They have top-six efficiency marks on both ends through the first two frames. No other team can make that claim, and only the Milwaukee Bucks—last season’s wins leader—also land in the top 10 on each end.

Obviously, there are two halves to a game, and once we expand to full-game statistics, Miami goes from the NBA’s best team to one of its best. (If you have to downgrade, that’s the best way to do it, right?) The team’s actual net rating is plus-5.8, which is “only” tied for fifth.

That says two things about this squad.

The first is that it can be really, really good. The Heat are playing connected basketball at both ends—score one for #TheCulture—and basically everyone inside of the rotation seems comfortable in his role and capable of executing it.

“I know what championship basketball looks and feels like. I’ve been a part of some championship teams,” Nunn said. “The culture here is just for that.”

This also means the Heat haven’t been as effective after intermission.

Frankly, they’ve rarely needed to be. They’re steamrolling lesser clubs so early that they’re able to sleepwalk Big Three-style through second halves. Battling complacency and boredom—and perhaps tired legs lately with more injuries popping up—Miami hasn’t always stepped on the necks of opponents after knocking them down.

This group is good enough that its first punches are landing with a haymaker’s force, so even two-quarters-and-change of effort and intensity has been good enough to dispatch bottom feeders. The Heat are one of only six teams with an undefeated record against sub-.500 teams.

Still, Miami can’t count on 24-minute routs always being enough, even if it has fired up a few victory cigars at halftime already.

“NBA basketball games are long,” Erik Spoelstra said. “And you have to play all the way through to the end.”

Spo’s right. It’s a tedious, nit-picky process, but letting off the gas too much can prove problematic.

At the same time, it’s the middle of November. That the Heat are even encountering this problem already is incredible, and the fact it’s perhaps emerging as an early focus says everything you need to know about this start.

Finding a killer instinct is one of the final steps of in building a basketball juggernaut. Miami revamped its roster this summer and has reshuffled the rotation already in-season (multiple times over). To be this far ahead of the learning curve at this stage of the game with this many moving parts is a testament to Pat Riley’s vision, Spo’s guidance, Jimmy Butler’s leadership and the culture-infused cohesiveness this core has created.

If the Heat continue staying a step or two ahead, then the ceiling keeps rising and wildest dreams become expectations, if not eventual realities.

GUTS CHECK: West Coast Miami Heat Waiters Drama, Looking Ahead

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Welcome back to Guts Check. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and an expression of the soul of the Heat fan base. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Lost at Denver, 109-89
  • Won at Phoenix, 124-108
  • Lost at Los Angeles Lakers, 95-80

Let’s review a few of my key takeaways from last week, and what we should be looking towards.

More Defense, Less Drama

What a difference a week makes?

The 3 game West coast trip left Miami 1-2 on the trip, 6-3 on the season. They had an impressive win in Phoenix sandwiched in between two tough losses in Denver and Los Angeles.

However, the more troubling elements surrounding the team over the last 3 games have less to do with the Heat’s play and more to do with off the court & injury report issues.

Let’s quickly recap:

  • Dion Waiters earned a team suspension of 10 games for conduct detrimental to the team.
    • I’m not going to spend too much time rehashing this bizarre scenario, but if it makes you feel any worse this appears to be the punctuation to a handful of similar issues as it pertains to Dion. This is now becoming a trend for Waiters and Miami. The team has been at odds with Waiters for far too long and both parties have been left to throw hands up at each other. This isn’t likely to end in nice fashion.
  • Justise Winslow appears to have apparently finished a game while concussed and has now been forced to miss several games following that head injury.
    • Injury aside, Winslow’s uneven start is not viewed as concerning according to a team source. The thought being, time to further build chemistry with Jimmy Butler, improve his shooting and stay healthy will translate to positive momentum for the starting point guard. If the shooting doesn’t come, the Heat are going to have some interesting decisions to make long term.
  • The injury bug has also hit the Heat by the likes of Tyler Herro and Kelly Olynyk. (Not to mention Derrick Jones Jr. remains sidelined).
    • The Heat can’t afford to lose the spacing that Herro and KO provide. Let’s keep our fingers crossed both Herro and Olynyk, listed as questionable tonight, can suit up.

However, all things considered, I think any rational Heat observer would take 6-3 to start this season.

Looking Ahead

The key for this team that will determine if homecourt in the East playoffs is achievable has a lot less to do with how they perform on three game west coast trips and much more to do with how they handle an upcoming 7 game stretch like what lies ahead.

Tuesday Nov 12 vs. Detroit

Thursday Nov 14 at Cleveland

Saturday Nov 16 vs New Orleans

Wednesday Nov 20 vs Cleveland

Friday, Nov 22 at Chicago

Saturday, Nov 23 at Philadelphia

Monday, Nov 25 vs. Charlotte

6-1 should be the goal, 5-2 you also take. However, you can’t stumble through these portions of the schedule. These are the clusters of winnable games that pad the W/L record (especially the home games) to protect against those nights in Denver or other west coast trips in the future.

While aside from Philadelphia, the Heat’s next 7 opponents may lack marquee game appeal, this will be a telling two weeks of Heat basketball.

Player to Watch

Kendrick Nunn is firmly on my radar this week.

Honestly, I still don’t really even know what we have in this kid. How Nunn bounces back from his recent “struggles” relative to his blazing hot start, is probably what I am most curious to find out this week. Defenses are taking advantage of his aggressive style of defense and forcing him to do more than just score.

Nunn has seemingly played his way into the rotation regardless, but the question will become how entrenched as a starter he is, and how effective can he be late in games as teams tighten the screws on defense.

The other player I am anxious to watch this week is Jimmy Butler. Because duh.

As many of those scoring sprees (like we saw in Phoenix) we can witness from a superstar of Butler’s caliber in a Heat uniform, the better. It feels damn good to have a player who can do that type of heavy lifting night in and night out. Plus, he gets respect from the officials.

Some might say Jimmy Butler has the guts.

That’s a wrap until next week.