For Dangerous Miami Heat, the Time is Now… and Beyond

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There aren’t many speakers in sports over the past half-century who can rival Pat Riley in eloquence, especially when he has a mission statement to share and some time to prepare. So it was odd, and a little alarming, at the conclusion of the disappointing 2018-19 season when — on his heels after two years of uncharacteristic personnel errors — he seemingly mangled the message.

“There’s no obstacles,” the Miami Heat president said. “Well, there are tons of them, but there’s none. So we’ll try to get past them if we can to add more to the team, if that’s a possibility.”

It wasn’t enough the sort of slogan you stitch a shirt for…..

Or was it?

Peering back now, one Jimmy Butler acquisition, one Tyler Herro drafting, one Bam Adebayo ascension, one Duncan Robinson breakout, one Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala addition, one global pandemic and one Bubble resumption later, it sounds like the most sage thing the septuagenarian has ever said. It’s almost as if he knew the Heat would be here now, in the second round against the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, again relevant, again attractive, again the franchise every other one fears because of its combination of continuity, geography, history and dare we say, culture.

It all makes me think of something a Heat executive told me at summer league, a full July ago, as Herro, Robinson and Kendrick Nunn were offering a sample of what was to come, the product of an organizational transformation bent on development and opportunity for the overlooked. “We have been in several building stages under Pat,” the executive said over breakfast. “This is another. We are better positioned than most believe we are. But some things have to pan out.”

And what hasn’t? Butler? Better fit, better leader, better playmaker than anyone expected. Adebayo? An All-Star before anyone expected. Herro? Who anticipated he’d be so confident so soon? Goran Dragic? More left than anyone thought. Robinson? As Heat broadcaster and former guard John Crotty said on Five on the Floor this week when asked if he’d ever seen a player come from so far from nowhere, in all his decades in the NBA: “No, no. I haven’t. Have you?”

No.

Not close.

And so here we are, on the final day of August, usually the deadest of all NBA months, and the Heat — believed to have the “bleakest future in the NBA” by the best of all NBA writers, Zach Lowe, not long ago — are suddenly a national darling. They are a threat at least a season before they should be, but that’s not the story.

The story is this is the floor.

This arrow points north again, way north. The Heat have the best collection of young talent, attractive contracts, proven management and elite coaching of any team in the league, with only the Toronto Raptors comparable, and Toronto has more offseason decisions to make, how to handle expiring contracts Fred Van Vleet or Marc Gasol or Serge Ibaka, all integral to this season’s success. Miami has free agents too, but the capacity to keep them all if they choose, at least for one season, or move on with others — like the uber-gifted, uber-secret KZ Okpala — training in wait.

And of course, they have a plan again.

A real plan. Not a sign middling players to long-term, restrictive deals plan.

Before Thanksgiving, prior to this sentiment becoming widely popular, I tweeted this:

I didn’t generate this sentiment entirely on my own.

It was presented to some in the organization and — though tampering rules prevented full disclosure — it was obvious this was intentional.

It was obvious that Giannis Antetokounmpo was LeBron James 2.0.

You remember LeBron before he took his talents to South Beach? Playing in an unglamorous, chilly market? Winning two MVPs but unable to attract another prime superstar, not Chris Bosh, not Amare Stoudemire, just elderly Shaq and fading Antawn Jamison and a limited shooter named Mo Williams? Giving it nearly a decade to work, entering the second half of his 20s, weary of hearing how he couldn’t get to the top when he wasn’t surrounded by top talent? Seeing a friend (Dwyane Wade) who had thrived in the Heat program? Who had won big in the Heat program?

Sound similar to what may happen now?

It did to some Heat officials.

So here we are.

Heat vs. Bucks.

The series the Heat wanted, and not just because they believe it to be winnable, with many of the matchups in their favor, particularly if Eric Bledsoe scuffles in big moments like he did last postseason, if some of the Bucks’ older bodies break down, if Khris Middleton (call him “swingman Mo Williams”) shrinks on the stage as he has at times.

They wanted it so Giannis can see up close.

See what he can have, and what he can be.

Here. In Miami.

See his training buddy, Bam Adebayo — with whom he shares an agent and a mentality — and what he can offer as a defensive complement.

See Jimmy Butler take some of the leadership and media burden off his shoulders, someone who will stick up for his teammates time and time again, so long as they work like him.

See the shooting, so much shooting, young shooting, from Herro to Robinson and beyond.

See how the consistently innovative Erik Spoelstra beats the notoriously stubborn Mike Budenholzer to adjustments.

See what Riley has built, after building and rebuilding and rebuilding again, almost for sport, rarely in doubt.

So this isn’t just a chance to beat Giannis. It is a chance to court him. Riley isn’t putting off retiring in Malibu for Oladipo. He isn’t waiting to turn over the reins to others to reach the second round. This is taking this franchise to the top again, in what would be his greatest trick, because so many wrote him off.

Washed Riley, they said.

Perhaps.

Or perhaps he was just getting wet to spear another orca.

“There are obstacles… but there are none.” 

Everything this season is already a win.

Now, for Riley and his Heat, there is suddenly nothing to lose. And they will only lose two games this series on their way to the Eastern Conference finals, stretching a remarkable comeback story deep into September and making a certain superstar start thinking more about starting again somewhere else, south.

 

Ethan J. Skolnick has covered the Miami Heat since 1996, and is now the CEO and Lead Content Editor for Five Reasons Sports Network.

 

Five Reasons Sports: Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Picks

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It’s finally here, the series most have anticipated since long before anyone heard of Covid-19. It’s the Miami Heat and the….

Milwaukee Bucks.

The Battle for the Soul of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

It also marks the return of Cocky Heat Fan.

We allowed our Fan-alysts at Five Reasons Sports to weigh in.

 

Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305):

Heat in 7. The Heat’s ability to throw multiple wing defenders at Giannis is what sets them apart. There’s clearly no way to fully stop Giannis Antetokounmpo, but I think Miami will slow him down in at least 2 or 3 games. Bam Adebayo will look to attack Giannis to try and get him in foul trouble, as he did during the season. But most importantly I believe this will be yet another huge leap for Duncan Robinson. Since Milwaukee allows an excess of threes, Duncan will expose this Bucks team, which will lead to a big Heat win in game 7.

 

Greg Sylvander (@GregSylvander)
Heat in 7. The trendy “Heat in 6” prediction feels too easy. Things are never that easy. However, I do understand why people are leaning in to Miami in this matchup. If any team presents the type of roster and coaching that can push Milwaukee to the brink it’s the Heat. If the Bucks keep one big on the floor, the player that I think becomes a major key for the Heat is Kelly Olynyk. Although I bet Milwaukee sizes down and goes with more of Giannis at the 5. He is so good (and so efficient) that if the Bucks go small and make threes they could win in 6 and it wouldn’t surprise me. But that prediction is bereft of guts. If you’ve got the guts you go Heat in 7.

 

Jannelle Moore (@Jannelle12)

Heat in 7. The Heat-Bucks match up is something that I’ve been looking forward to since their game in Miami before the season was suspended. Bam Adebayo was relentless on defense-forcing Giannis to the outside.  Speaking of outside shooting, the Heat was scorching from three in that game. Since then, the Heat has continued to play the Bucks tough. I expect nothing less. I expect Bam defending Giannis and the Heat deploying different variations of dribble handoffs to get their shooters open looks.  With that said, I take the Heat in seven.

 

Manny Chang (@MannyC_17)

Heat in 7. With players like Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson stepping up in the bubble for Miami, I see that depth being the difference overall in this series. Giannis can score 50 points, but those 50 points can result in a loss. Khris Middleton would have to step up game in and game out. I don’t see that happening. On the other hand, Jimmy Butler can score 15 points or less and still create a winning impact for his team. 

 

David Friedman (@TacoBoutSports)

Bucks in 6. Is Bam the answer to containing the reigning MVP? As we saw against Kawhi Leonard nd the Raptors in last year’s playoffs, if you can keep the Giannis freight train from endlessly steamrolling to the rim, you have a chance. The addition of Jimmy Butler gives Miami a Kawhi-ish defender, but Bam will ultimately determine how much of a chance the Heat have to beat the Bucks to move onto the Eastern Conference Finals. The homer in me says “Heat in 5”, but I’ll take the Bucks in 6 games.

 

Martin Bater (@MartinBaterSP)

Heat in 6. Jimmy Butler has become Playoff Jimmy, reaching another level. Now it’s time to witness Playoff Bam. Bam Adebayo’s defense on Giannis and his all-around offensive contributions will prove to be the difference for Miami.

 

Zack Buckley (@ZackBuckleyNBA)

Bucks in 6. Bam Adebayo is the Association’s best defensive option to throw at Giannis Antetokounmpo, so much as anyone is capable of pestering a soon-to-be two-time MVP. The Greek Freak’s supporting cast hasn’t exactly aced its postseason test, and add a slumping Khris Middleton (36.1 percent shooting in the first round) to the list of concerns. Saying that, the Heat might have too many one-way players to make this work. If they load up on defense, I’m not sure they score enough to win four games, and vice versa.

 

Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga)

Heat in 7. This is where it was supposed to end, but the Heat’s success versus the Bucks in the regular season and in the bubble (they had a giant lead they blew a few weeks back) is very real. The Heat use dribble penetration to get the Bucks moving sude to side leaving 3 pt. Shooters open, and it’s just hard envisioning the Heat losing to anybody if they are hitting threes. Oh…and they also have a smorgasbord of options to defend Giannis too. I originally thought about picking Bucks in 7, but couldn’t make a cogent case for it. I can for the Heat.

 

David Fernandez (@ByDLFernandez)

Heat in 7. The Miami Heat entered their second round series with the Milwaukee Bucks with literally nothing to lose. This season has been an unmitigated success, and any further player development or playoff prosperity Is just extra at this point. With that lack of pressure, their history of playing well against the Bucks, and the consistent shooting, the Heat will shock the NBA world with a 7-game upset of the heavily favored Bucks. Defensive weapons to deploy against Giannis will do enough to slow the superstar, and Miami’s team-approach will see someone different take on the hero mantle with each victory.

 

David Eversole (@DavidWEversole)

Heat in 7. The Milwaukee Bucks have been on a emotional journey thus far in the NBA Playoffs. It could be reasonable to expect a slow start as in their opening series against Orlando when they face the Miami Heat on Monday. Despite their solidarity off the court, expect no mercy from the Heat on it. Miami will throw everything at Giannis Antetokounmpo to make other players beat them. It will be a grind for both teams, I expect this one to go the distance.

 

Ricky J Marc (@RickyJMarc)

Heat in 6/7. In a year marred by COVID-19, social unrest, and a variety of other controversies, it’s a miracle we can even see the HEAT and Bucks go at it in a playoff series. The Bucks have been the darling of the Eastern Conference for the last two years on the back of a supremely talented unicorn from Greece, Giannis Antetokounmpo. The HEAT have been slowly chugging along in the post-LeBron (and now, for good, the post-Wade) era(s), and with the acquisition of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro via free agency and the NBA Draft, managed to develop into a legitimate thorn in the side of the league’s premier clubs. Through hard work, defense, and the confidence of its lead players, the HEAT have shown that they can match up with anybody, as we saw this season. Milwaukee is a great team, but as we saw last year, they still have a lot to prove. The easy bet is Bucks in six, but I’ll take it in the opposite direction. Miami will outwork, outshoot, and outlast this Bucks team, shocking the world in six/seven hard-fought games. We may even see a repeat of the 2016 offseason as a result, where Kevin Durant ended up joining the talented team that sent him home. If anyone can shock the world, it’s this HEAT team.

 

Josh Houtz (@Houtz)

Heat in 6. Believe it or not, before the NBA season resumed I put some $$$ on the Miami Heat to win the whole damn thing. After all, 95% of my followers love this team— so, I’m a fan whether I want to admit it or not. The Milwaukee Bucks and their 6’11 Greek god Giannis Anetokounmpo will be a tough matchup for the Heat. But with Jimmy Butler in top-form, Bam Bam Bigelow in the middle, and a dragon that not even Daenerys Targaryen can tame—Heat in 6.

 

Can the Milwaukee Bucks be the Catalyst for Real Action?

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In the wake of the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin the Milwaukee Bucks have boycotted Game 5 of the NBA Playoffs. 

 

The temperature of our society has been steadily raising.

Turmoil between the supposed protectors of our people and our citizens escalates daily.

Words have been written.

Statements have been added to jerseys.

Yet it continues.

 

The systemic racial divide in this nation has reached the point where talking and writing come up empty.

Where symbolic gestures are just that, a quickly forgotten acknowledgement of the situation.

The Milwaukee Bucks have actually taken a tangible and measured step.

 

With a platform that gives them a domestic and international audience, the Bucks seized a unique opportunity to take a stand.

 

The NBA followed suit, and soon all games that were scheduled on Wednesday were cancelled.

 

Milwaukee is one organization in the world of professional sports that would have been a candidate for this stand even before today.

 

The question remains if this will merely be a footnote in the struggle for equality in the “land of the free”.

Or a springboard to real dialogue, and actual progress towards true equality and freedom.

 

Either way, it shows that people with influence and a platform care.

We have to start somewhere.

 

 

How Erik Spoelstra Transformed the Heat’s Offense

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It’s a hectic scene in the Miami Heat’s locker room on the night of Dec. 13. To the immediate right is the franchise’s new star Jimmy Butler, recounting the last moments of a thrilling game to one of the biggest media scrums of the season. To the left is a Heat employee, chopping it up with Derrick Jones Jr and trying to figure out which pairs of shoes he’ll bring on the road.

Other players are clearing out, trying not to dwell on what happened 30 or so minutes prior. In a sense, they quite literally didn’t have time to. The Heat just lost a nail-biter to the LeBron-led Los Angeles Lakers, and they have a meeting with Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in less than 20 hours.

The Heat’s 113-110 loss to the Lakers was only their seventh defeat of the season to that point, putting them at 18-7 on the year. The loss also came under questionable circumstances; the NBA would later announce that Butler was fouled twice on the final possession – once before the inbound, and again during the potential game-tying three-point attempt.

From the outside, it’s easy to view this as a moral victory of sorts. The Heat took the Lakers to the wire, and very well could’ve won that game. For those who hadn’t watched the team closely to that point, the game served as a wake-up call. It was 48 minutes of proof that this team could beat anybody.

That isn’t how the Heat viewed it. 

This was a missed opportunity. There was an expectation to win. It isn’t enough to prove that they can compete with the top dogs; this should’ve been proof that they are a top dog.

That standard is why Miami wasn’t surprised when they started the season so well. That unwavering belief, that expectation of excellence, was instilled by head coach Erik Spoelstra months prior.

Laying the Foundation

While Butler was the prized signing of the summer, the acquisition of Meyers Leonard signified quite the shift for the Heat. Out went Hassan Whiteside, their max-contract interior force, and in came Leonard, a “spacer” that did most of his work in the background.

Spoelstra connected with Leonard almost immediately after the trade to get a feel for Leonard, as well as lay out his plans for him this season. 

“He came to L.A. to watch me work out two different times,” Leonard told me. “We went to lunch and he really wanted to get to know me. Which, first of all, that helped me understand just how much he cares.”

What further drew Leonard to Spoelstra was his commitment to improvement. Spoelstra rose through the Heat ranks as a video coordinator, scout and assistant coach before landing the head coaching job in 2008. His unorthodox path screams, “I work harder than just about everyone,” and that intensity was evident very early on from Leonard’s vantage point.

“The level of intensity is different,” Leonard said. “[Blazers head coach] Terry [Stotts] is a little more calm, cool and collected. The level of obsession Spo has with coaching is impressive. He is always bringing it, like, every day. I’ll never forget I was sitting in training camp during our first team meeting. He says, ‘I don’t want to wait,’ or something to that effect. ‘I don’t want to wait.’ So I’m like, alright, where is he going with this? 

“He’s like, ‘We have a very talented group of guys in this locker room, and coaches that are ready to make you guys better. I’m ready to start competing for a championship now.’ I’m like, wow, this guy’s with it!”

Not only is Spoelstra with it, he’s done it. He has been part of three championship teams in Miami, one as an assistant (2006) and two as the leading man (2012, 2013). It’s easy for newcomers to fall in line when you have that kind of pedigree. His video and scouting background, combined with his experience “in the trenches” allows him to connect on a deeper level. 

“This is a coach that’s made it to the top,” Solomon Hill told me. “I give credit to my past coaches, but [Spoelstra] has taken that next step, not just once, but a few times. Having that calm confidence about scenarios we may face kinda sets the standard.”

Hill also mentions that Spoelstra has an instant-recall about him, a nod to his scouting background.

“It’s crazy how his brain works,” Hill added. “He can tell you about a specific play against Dallas [in the Finals] that was a turning point, what happened here and what happened there.”

Spoelstra’s demeanor makes sense when you consider his path and background. It gives him instant credibility with players, and it’s a big reason why he and Butler have clicked.

That, and Spoelstra won’t hesitate to voice his displeasure.

“Thibs looks like he’d cuss you out in a heartbeat,” Butler told me. “Brett Brown didn’t look like that, he looked like a really nice guy. Spo looks like a really nice guy, right? He’ll cuss your a** out so quick.”

Being able to balance all of that – his experience, his intensity, his attention to detail and the human element – is what makes Spoelstra one of the best coaches in the NBA. 

“There’s the intensity, but there’s also the Spo that cares about you,” Leonard said. “The Spo that asks how you’re doing, and thanks you for what you bring to the table. It feels like he’s really in the trenches with us. It’s a very connected feeling with Spo, like you really want to go to war with that dude.”

Seeking out help

The main thing Spoelstra preaches is accountability. Knowing your role, accepting said role and giving everything you have. In order for him to hold others accountable, he has to do the work himself.

Spoelstra famously goes outside of the box to improve as a coach. He’s visited Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll to observe how Carroll runs things. Most notably, Spoelstra visited then-Oregon football head coach Chip Kelly to study his offense after Miami’s flop in the 2011 Finals. The Pace-and-Space Era began soon after, with Miami winning back-to-ball titles after they flipped their offense on its head.

This summer, Spoelstra attempted to make a similar shift. The Heat was (and is) known for their defense; Miami entered the summer having ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating seven of the past nine seasons. The offense, however, had been an inconsistent mess. That was especially true after LeBron James left the team after the 2013-14 campaign.

Spoelstra had new talent coming in. Butler was a perennial All-Star, a rugged-bucket getter set to give them a half-court boost they sorely missed. Replacing Whiteside with Leonard would give them more of a stretch element. Rookies Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn had shown real creation flashes during Summer League, though their regular season roles were in question.

Even with the shiny new toys, Spoelstra knew he had to reinvent himself. This time, he sought out the counsel of Jim Crutchfield, a coaching legend in the Division II ranks. Crutchfield took over at West Liberty University in 2004, quickly turning them into one of the winningest programs in the country over the next 13 years before resigning and taking over Nova Southeastern University.

Crutchfield compiled a 359-61 record from 2004-2017, giving him an 85.5 winning percentage. What intrigued Spoelstra wasn’t just the amount of winning, but the way Crutchfield racked up those wins.

“Over 15 years, we are averaging 100 points a game,” Crutchfield told the Miami Herald in an interview. “It’s not so much about points per game as efficiency and points per possession. We’re among the top in the country in points per possession. We do it via a motion offense.”

Spoelstra entered the offseason wanting to diversify the offense. With a seventh-place finish in offensive rating this season, it’s safe to say that goal was achieved. 

Xs & Spos 

Spoelstra didn’t copy-and-paste Crutchfield’s offensive philosophy. In terms of play types, the Heat’s offense looks almost nothing like Crutchfield’s. Via Synergy, nearly 28 percent of Nova Southeastern’s offensive possessions came in transition, while that figure was 13.3 percent for Miami.

However, you can see some similarities in their “early offense” actions, particularly with Bam Adebayo operating from the elbows.

The Heat have also expanded their toolkit in the pick-and-roll game. They’re running a larger share of them overall – 19.6 percent of their possessions have come via pick-and-roll this year versus 18.8 last year, via Synergy – and they’ve featured more bodies.

Via Second Spectrum, the Heat have run 7.2 “double picks” per game this season, up from 4.1 the year prior. Flowing out of the “Double Drag” alignment is something Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks, in particular, have made a staple, but the Heat have made good use of it as well. Among 61 players that have logged at least 100 possessions in “double pick” situations, the Heat have three players in the top-15 in efficiency: Nunn (2nd, 1.33 PPP), Goran Dragic (8th, 1.24 PPP) and Butler (12th, 1.21 PPP).

There were signs of more pick-and-roll variety in the preseason. When asked about it, Spoelstra expressed how he “loved the versatility” of his bigs. 

“Some of our offense is different quite naturally because of our personnel,” Spoelstra told me. “Meyers may make it look a little different with how he does it compared to bigs we’ve had in the past. Meyers’ shooting, Bam’s physicality and presence in the paint, [Derrick Jones Jr.] brings an immediate boost of energy when he comes into the game.”

Left out of that mix was Kelly Olynyk, who was recovering from a bone bruise in his knee at the time. Like Leonard, Olynyk went on to provide value as a floor spacer in ball-screen actions. Via Second Spectrum, Olynyk ranked fourth in the NBA this season in scoring efficiency (1.15 PPP) in pick-and-pop situations (min. 200 picks).

The Heat have done a better job of getting their ball-handlers downhill earlier in the clock. Via Second Spectrum, the Heat ranked 25th in points per possession (1.27) on shots within the first half of the shot clock. This year, their 1.35 mark is a hair behind the Dallas Mavericks for the league lead.

Of course, you can’t talk about Miami’s offense without mentioning their success with dribble-handoffs (DHOs). Via Synergy, the Heat lead the NBA in DHO frequency (8.8 percent of possessions), possessions per game (9.6), points per game (10.2) and efficiency (1.07 PPP).

Spoelstra has empowered Adebayo with more offensive responsibility, allowing him to flow into those two-man dances with Miami’s plethora of ball-handlers and shooters. The connection with him and Duncan Robinson has been particularly deadly.

 

Among DHO pairings with at least 100 possessions, the Robinson-Adebayo duo led the NBA in efficiency this season, generating an ungodly 1.32 points per direct handoff, via Second Spectrum. To put that into perspective, Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 1.14 points per possession in transition this season. 

Robinson is the biggest reason the Heat have been the NBA’s most prolific shooting team this season. He’s one of 28 players attempting at least 7.0 threes per game; he’s also the most efficient, draining 44.6 percent of those looks. 

Much like Adebayo, Spoelstra has given Robinson the ultimate green light to stretch himself. Spoelstra made waves when he called Robinson one of the best shooters on the planet, despite Robinson shooting just 28.6 percent from three in limited action last season.

Now, you could probably count on one hand the amount of shooters you’d take over Robinson in the league today.

Set for a Run?

The Heat now stand as one of the most interesting teams to track in this year’s playoffs. They will face the Indiana Pacers in round one, a team they won the season series against (3-1). In addition to the Heat arguably having the two best players in the series, the Pacers are entering the postseason with black marks on three of their five best players.

Victor Oladipo is still trying to work himself back from a right knee injury that robbed him of most of his 2019-20 campaign. Domantas Sabonis, a first-time All-Star this year, will miss the series due to plantar fasciitis. T.J Warren, freshly named to the NBA’s All-Bubble team, has been playing through plantar fasciitis all season, and that’s before getting into the trouble he’s had dealing with Jimmy Butler. An argument can be made that the Heat should not only win the series, but win it quickly.

A series victory over the Pacers would likely set them up for a showdown with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Heat won the season series, 2-1, and held a 23-point lead in the loss. They’ve shown they have the personnel to at least bother Antetokounmpo; that effort is spearheaded by the versatile Adebayo. 

Miami’s pick-and-roll and DHO attacks are uniquely qualified to neutralize the Bucks’ “drop” defense. With Milwaukee’s bigs hanging back to take away shots at the rim, it leaves them susceptible to the kind of looks that the Heat have thrived on all season. 

The Bucks will rightfully be favored in that series. They have the NBA’s best player in Antetokounmpo, a second All-Star in Khris Middleton and a deep cast of talented role players that allow them to go big or downsize however they see fit. 

But it wouldn’t be a complete shock if the Heat could pull off the unthinkable. 

Not to Adebayo, who thinks the Heat can “make a run and make noise and do a lot of things people said we couldn’t.”

Not to Butler, who told ESPN that he thinks the Heat can win a title this season.

And especially not to Spoelstra, who set the bar title-high at the beginning of the season. 

He doesn’t want to wait; neither do they.

 

Nekias Duncan (@NekiasNBA) works for a variety of outlets, but can be found frequently on Five Reasons Sports platforms, and has covered the past two NBA All-Star games for Five Reasons.

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NBA Bubble Trends: 3 Breakouts who will get Payouts

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You could say that, as strange as these circumstances are, they have actually created the purest form of basketball.

In the controlled environment of the NBA Bubble, players have minimal distractions other than the lure of cheap beer-shotgunning contests, Call of Duty confrontations and hopelessly broken golf swings. There are no families around to ask them to mow the lawn, or call the landscaper to “do it already.” No portly, potty-mouthed fans in the stands to question their athletic ability and mental acuity. No long flights to sap their stamina. Everyone is equal, in the sense of encountering the same odd, but stable, conditions.

So when players break out in Orlando, it matters. It shows they can handle change better than most, and rise above others. It’s particularly significant when those players are up for new contracts.

Here are three who won’t be anything close to free:

 

Fred Van Vleet, Toronto Raptors

No secret after the Raptors’ run to the title, the repeatedly overlooked guard from Wichita State has been Toronto’s best offensive player in the bubble. averaging 20.8 through four games on 46/43/87 splits while averaging 7.3 assists. For some reason, defenders keep going under screens against him, but the secret’s out about how important he is. So important that the Raptors can’t afford not to pay him, even with Kyle Lowry still impactful. He’s quite a good defender too, even when undersized in the post, as he showed against Miami’s Jimmy Butler.

What’s next: Without question, rudderless teams without point guards and with cap space (Knicks and Pistons come to mind) will come after him, forcing Raptors GM Masai Ujiri to make a choice, a choice that might include trading Lowry’s $34 million to keep Van Vleet — especially with Pascal Siakam due an extension and Marc Gasol and Serge Ibake free agents.

Betting Edge: Bet on Van Vleet playing big in the postseason too, with the Raptors a real shot to return to the Finals. Don’t read too much into Friday’s rout by Boston. The teams should match up evenly in the second round.

 

Gary Trent Jr., Portland Trail Blazers

A totally different player than his bruising father, the deep shooter from Duke has been fearless in the Bubble, averaging 8.8 attempts in his first four games and making a ludicrous 63 percent of them. For a team that seemed wingless beyond CJ McCollum, he’s become the X-Factor the Blazers needed to complement the return of their bigs. Is there enough of a sample size? Well, he’s at 40.9 percent from three for his career, and he’s beginning to show other offensive elements.

What’s next: Trent Jr. is in the middle of a three-year contract that pays him a relative pittance this season ($1.4 million prior to the Covid-19 prorate). Assume that the Blazers sign him to an extension before he becomes a restricted free agent, especially with McCollum so expensive, putting the eternally underrated McCollum in play for a trade.

Betting Edge: If the Blazers can get in the play-in game(s), Trent’s emergence and Jusuf Nurkic’s strength inside make them the favorite against any opponent, even if Portland needs to win two. And they are the only one of the possible play-in teams that can push the Lakers in the first round, because of all their shooting.

 

Joe Harris, Brooklyn Nets

He did win the Three-Point Contest in 2019, so it’s not a surprise he can stroke it. But the former Cleveland Cavaliers second-round selection has been forced to diversify his game in light of all the Nets’ injuries and opt-outs, and he was exceptional as they exceeded expectations with a 2-2 record to start. Harris averaged 19.0 points and 5.3 rebounds, taking as many twos as threes, and making 61.2 percent overall.

What’s next: An unrestricted free agent, he would seem to be an ideal fit as a third option with the returning Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but Brooklyn is about to have an expensive roster, and Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert are still in the offensive mix. Will the Nets see him as an accessory while another team (Knicks? Hawks?) sees him as a necessity.

Betting Edge: Whether Harris and the Nets get the 7th or 8th seed, it’s hard to see them winning more than a game against the Bucks or Raptors in a playoff series, in their current state. Still, Harris is dangerous enough to take the points a couple times.

Cancel Culture: Abandon This NBA Season

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Just cancel the season now.

 

I’m referring to the NBA but really you can apply this to just about every sport or at least all team sports out there. I’m even saying to cancel the season for the American Cornhole League, even though my appetite for the unnecessarily weird and stupidly irrelevant will not be sated.

 

More players are testing positive for COVID. More players are opting out of participating due to concerns about COVID. A major player (Damian Lillard) has been vocal with his concerns with regards to all players following the very rules meant to keep them safe and from spreading COVID while quarantined in the NBA bubble.

 

I get that the league and the teams will lose a ton of dollars. I get the direct and indirect economic impact that the NBA has. But the reverse of that is the league spending millions of dollars ($150M according to Brian Windhorst) to create an environment that will allow players to play and for the season to continue. Then there’s all the choreography behind the scenes to keep everyone distanced, fed, and entertained. I understand that as a result the league is more than likely going to have a greater return than any amount that they invested in by getting this season started back up. But at what human cost?

 

I may be in the minority, but to me there are some things that are just more important. Can the money being spent to restart the season be redirected to other worthy causes instead? There’s the cancer thing, the AIDS thing, the affordable healthcare thing…all sorts of worthy things would benefit.

 

Using this restart as a platform to call attention to the Black Lives Matter movement is an admirable one. But many of these athletes are of a high profile. They don’t need a court emblazoned with “Black Lives Matter” to help keep the cause going. And as much as it would’ve been cool to see, they don’t need jerseys that allow them to have messages supporting these causes in order to actually advance said causes. These players have a platform. They have access to channels to keep the movement going and, if they so choose, even have the means to create a platform or channel to keep the movement going.

 

PS, order your Light Skinned Opinions BLM shirt, the proceeds of which go to the Know Your Rights Camp.

 

And by the way, this is being held in Orlando which is in a state that has shown one of if not the greatest increases in COVID cases in the last week. I guess in the standings and win/loss columns, we are winning. The NBA is driving towards and not away from the fire that Gov. DeSantis has stoked. This is a governor whose own stubbornness and ineptitude is rivaled only by the stubbornness and ineptitude of the governors whose own states are leading in infection rates.

 

But back to sports.

 

It’s an odd circumstance. Let’s face it, there will be a debate as to whether there should be an asterisk next to this championship if the season even continues. Hell, Phil Jackson might even wander in from the plains of Montana to find dial-up internet just to give his gravelly-voiced opinion. Does anyone remember his thoughts on the first of many San Antonio Spurs championships? It came during a shortened season. His Phil-ness felt it tainted because: 1. it was shortened and 2. Michael Jordan had retired and he wasn’t coaching. Probably he thinks it’s mostly because he wasn’t coaching.

 

Regardless, there will be endless debates simply because the circumstances are so unprecedented. Unlike the 1999 or 2012 shortened seasons that at least went from commencement to conclusion without pause, this stoppage can be argued that the interruption came at the benefit to some and a detriment to others. Some teams needed the break to rest up players and heal their Joel Embiids. Other teams were rolling and now have to get that momentum back as they incorporate their JR Smiths. Still, there is the terrible reality that players are testing positive while others are simply opting out. These aren’t end-of-bench guys either. DeAndre Jordan, Avery Bradley, Davis Bertans, Trevor Ariza and others. With a variety of teams affected, can it be argued that the best team actually won? Sure. Can the counter be that those players would’ve had a negligible impact on winning even if they participated? Sure. And so I offer you Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers to fill out your bench.

 

There will certainly be endless debates based on “What ifs” should a champion be crowned. But that’s much of what spirited debates are centered on, right? What if the Dolphins had a running game? What if Jamal Mashburn didn’t pass off to Clarence Weatherspoon? What if the ref didn’t make a ridiculous pass interference call against UM in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl? What if Hillary didn’t take Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania for granted?

 

I am not anti-sports, as if you need proof of this as you read this piece on a sports site. And truthfully I will watch if the games are played. I understand there could be a certain hypocrisy to this. But when stacked against other hypocrisies such as social injustice and economic inequality…I’ll comfortably ride or die with mine.

 

But, for a hot second, dismiss the aspect of needing sports as a distraction. Is this really a time when we need a diversion considering all that is going on? Can we not instead refocus on bettering ourselves as human beings or at least as valuable members advancing society? I’m of the science believing camp that takes this pandemic seriously. Personally, I have family who are elderly and who have underlying conditions. I’m all in no matter what any Karen screams about. Rightly or wrongly, I put a greater degree of emphasis and importance on human capital instead of capital capital. It’s why I feel the NBA should cancel the season.

 

It sucks. I know. My favorite teams have such unbelievable stories and actually matter. Jimmy. Tyler. Tua! I am rooting for them no matter what because I am a diehard fan. Want proof? I actually once said out loud, “Tyler Thigpen? Yeah I can root for this team if he’s the starter.”

 

Ultimately I believe that team sports will return. But folks we probably just don’t need it right now. Teams need to (and perhaps they have planned for this) see that the expected monetary gain could be nothing compared to the prospective integrity loss should the pandemic strike someone who is—let’s say—a very recognizable and significant piece to the overall NBA machine. It shouldn’t get to that point. In one of the rarest if not only appropriate uses of this, “All lives matter” when it comes to caring for the superstar to the end of bench fill-in.

 

Though it’s not likely, I hope the league does the right thing. I hope teams do the right thing. But at this moment, the only team I’m rooting for is Team Fauci.

 

One last thing: Wear a mask.

 

Five X-Factors for the Miami Heat’s Playoff Run

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Merriam-Webster defines an X-Factor as a circumstance, quality, or person that has a strong but unpredictable influence.

You can also tack this definition on to the Miami Heat because they epitomize the essence of the X-Factor.

Their presence in the Eastern Conference is strong and unpredictable. Before the NBA suspended play in March, Miami held the fourth-best record in the conference at 41-24. Currently, they are within striking distance of the Boston Celtics for the third seed.

Given the circumstances and conditions of the reboot, there is no reason why the Heat can’t come out of nowhere and shock the league. If the Heat goes on a run during the reboot and carry that same momentum in the playoffs, look for these five X-Factors.

 

ANDRE IGUODALA

 

The Heat didn’t acquire SF Andre Iguodala for the regular season. They acquired him for the playoffs, and betting on him being a huge X-Factor in their success.  His value on defense is priceless. He is a versatile wing that can guard multiple positions. Don’t be surprised to see him paired with Bam Adebayo in certain lineups and situations. A duo of Iguodala and Adebayo switching on opposing offenses, locking down the perimeter and protecting the paint would be scary for the opposition.

Iguodala will also fit seamlessly with what coach Spo wants to do . The six years in the Bay setting the table for  Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson will serve him well in the second X-Factor to watch.

 

USE OF THE DRIBBLE HANDOFF

 

Miami leads the NBA in dribble handoff efficiency (1.06 points per possession) and frequency (8.8 percent over 9.6 possessions).  The Heat’s MO for the DHO can be found in transition and in the early stages of their offensive sets. In this situation, they look for the high percentage shot. Preferably, whoever shooting and knocking down efficient threes.

Pay attention when the Heat snags a rebound, and throw an outlet pass up court. Passing it up court creates space therefore making the DHO tougher to defend. Why? because a quickened pace makes it tough for the defense to set.

Watch Adebayo specifically in these situations. Let’s say Jimmy Butler comes up with the rebound and Adebayo sprints up the court to receive the pass. Adebayo catches it and go right into the DHO with a well-timed pass and a backscreen. Opposing defenses will struggle here because the defense has to decide what to give up. A three or the paint.  The third X-Factor should be feasting out there with the different ways the Heat will use the DHO.

 

DUNCAN ROBINSON

 

Robinson is shooting 44 percent from three, ranking fourth in the league in three-point percentage.  He takes 89 percent of his shots from behind the arch and have been assisted on 94 percent of his baskets. Robison is a classic spot up shooter that will be very effective in the offence. Remember the Heat’s proclivity to constantly DHO? Well, Robinson and his shooting is a big reason why.

Robinson leads the league with 3.2 points per game scored off of the DHO.  Obviously, the Heat taking advantage of that will be a given.

 

BAM ADEBAYO

 

Granted, Adebayo is one of the Heat’s main guys and in his first full season as a starter, he averaged 16 points and 11 rebounds per game.  He was in the midst of a breakout season until the COVID pandemic hit. What’s worth noticing about Adebayo and his development is whether or not he added something in his repertoire over the hiatus.  Imagine him returning with an improved mid range jumper and better handles?  Defenses will have to respect that jump shot and pick and rolls will be a lot more interesting.

 

GORAN DRAGIC

 

Coming off of a surgically repaired right knee this season, Goran Dragic was productive averaging 16 points and shooting a respectable 44 percent from the field, and 38 percent from the arc. In the reboot, Dragic will be a solid scoring option off the bench. What’s worth watching is how would his knee respond to the pressure and stress of playing eight games plus the playoffs in the bubble.  The shutdown may have allowed Dragic’s knees  to get some much needed rest, but the concern of re-aggravation  is valid.

 

The Miami Heat Town Hall on Race: Observations

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June 19, 2020 wasn’t just another commemorative celebration of the emancipation of the last Confederate slaves in the United States.

This particular Juneteenth hits a little bit differently than the ones in previous years. Jubilant remembrance and observance gave way to passionate and in-depth conversations about systemic racism in this country.  Helping lead the way in such discussions was the Miami Heat , as they hosted a virtual town  hall meeting.

“In many ways, this town hall is like our virtual team peaceful protest and we are protesting against systemic racism. Against the social injustices and inequalities , and the cases of police brutality against the Black community that we see far too often,”  says Heat coach Erik Spoelstra. “ We’re fed up with it, just like everyone else and we want to see change.”

 

 

 Here are some takeaways for the hour-long candid event……

 

INTERRUPTING THE PATTERN OF HATE BEGINS AT HOME

 

When asked to share his most memorable brush with racism, All-Star guard Jimmy Butler recalled a moment when he was 16 years old. Butler and his brother was walking out of a Walmart  when a man and a boy who appeared to be no older than six saw the two and the boy said to his father ‘those are the n-words’ you were talking about.

Butler’s moment was another example of racism being taught.

“The kid didn’t know any better,” Butler said, “The first thing that popped into my head is that you (the father) taught him that. There are things that you teach kids, and you choose to teach your kid how to hate.”

 

 

 

ACKNOWLEDGING WHITE PRIVILEGE 

 

    Meyers Leonard admitted that sometimes he feels uneasy as a non-Black player in the current climate of this country and how he sees his teammates treated. Leonard says that while he was raised to love all people and to differientate between right and wrong, he admits that he can’t fully relate to what his teammates are going through because of his race.

“It’s hard to understand because I’m white. I have white privilege. That is a fact. It doesn’t matter if  I grew up with nothing. I still have white privilege,” he said.

Leonard recalled an incident where despite being aware of his privilege as a White man, he didn’t use it in a way that he should have to defend and support a teammate.

“There’s been times when I was in Portland (as a member of the Blazers) , let’s just say a teammate came in and says I  got pulled over for no reason.  So I ask him about it like ‘what happened’ (He says) So I got pulled over for doing 36 mph in a 35 mph zone basically because he was a black man in a black neighborhood driving a nice car. They asked him where he was going and what he was doing. I didn’t say anything that day. ”  Leonard recalled.

During the next practice, Leonard apologized to the teammate. Whishing what he knew what to say but didn’t.  The lesson that Leonard took from that experience was to listen more to his teammates when they talk about incidents with police and other microaggressions.

 

EDUCATION

 

One huge example of systemic racism can be found in the education. The moderator mentioned how Blacks have to work twice a hard to get as much as other culture, and asked what could be done as a society to give equality in the education system. Solomon Hill believes that it starts by making the request known.

“I think the start is demanding opportunities at the local levels,” Hill says, “When you’re in sports, there are certain high schools that you go to. You go to that high schools because they give you the best possibility  to get a scholarship and to go up against the best talent. Everyone with a little money in their pocket want to send their kids to the best school”

Hill continues to say that sometimes those schools aren’t local. He cites underfunding as an obstacle, and how they create restrictions.

“If you can’t give them a great education, then what possibilities do they have to be lawyers and doctors?”  Hill asked.

ACCOUNTABILITY

 

    In Leonard’s first segment, he stressed holding officers, teachers, and people in power accountable for their actions. As the forum closed, Leonard also stressed holding White peers accountable.

“It starts with holding  your friend or your peer that maybe is white or whatever, accountable. If they do something wrong or don’t see it the way it really is. The reality is that you need to tell them. “

Leonard says that not even loved ones should be immune.

“Even if it’s a family member, put their asses in check.”

 

Jannelle (TJ) Moore has written for SB Nation, Complex Sports and several other outlets. 

Miami Heat one of teams that could surprise

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If 2020 taught us anything at all within the first six months, it would be:

  • Nothing is surprising and…
  • Not much is certain.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic suspended play, the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks were on a collision course to the Finals. Teams such as the Clippers and Raptors were solid contenders, while the Rockets and Celtics had a ‘puncher’s chance’. Now, a Lakers/Bucks match up isn’t necessarily a given and those other contenders aren’t a sure thing either.

As the NBA season resumes in Orlando, the conditions are right for an upset. A three-month layoff with no access to gyms and courts and re-energized bodies are idea conditions for a dark horse team to come out of nowhere and out of Disney holding the Larry in October (that sounds weird, right?)

There are four teams that have the potential to catch fire, build good habits and tendencies, and build a ton of momentum en-route to the title.

 

DALLAS MAVERICKS

 

    Luka Doncic’s emergence this season was not only fun to watch, it spearheaded the Mavs to a 40-27 record after missing the playoffs the year before. Currently they are within striking distance of the fifth seed-trailing Houston and Oklahoma City by 1 ½ games. They are also third in the NBA in scoring (116.4 points per game) and lead the league in offensive rating (115.8). Most of it is due to Doncic. However, Kristaps Porzingis becoming more acclimated in the Mavs’ system plays a part as well. When Dwight Powell ruptured his Achilles in January, it was Porzingis that stepped his game up-stringing together a 17 game stretch where he scored 20 points or more with 10 plus rebounds.

 

What to watch 

Having a prolific offense is great but when it comes to the playoffs, you have to be able to defend consistently. At season’s intermission, Dallas had a 106 defensive rating. Their biggest issue of concern? Defending the paint. Powell was ineffective in the lineup at protecting the paint. Since Powell is injured, it would be interesting to see if Mavs’ coach Rick Carlisle will move Porzingis to center for the playoffs. Before his injury, Porzingis’ defensive rating was 106.7 this year, it’s 109.4. Powell does the right things defensively as it pertains to form, but he just can’t defend the paint as well. There are good defenders on the team, and maybe the source of their problems on that end of the floor has everything to do with how these players are used.

Also, watch how they manage their depth. Two years ago, Dallas had a solid lineup off the bench, and what made it work was recognizing which combination of players played the best and capitalizing off of it. For example, Seth Curry played well off of JJ Barea. Maxi Kleber and Barea were solid defensively-and it worked. In fact, the Mavs’ ‘MOB’ squad, with the role players off the bench was their best line.  They will have to find a way to maximize these players. Curry is back. Barea and Kleber are still there. So it will be worth noticing what kind of combinations Carlisle will put on the floor.

 

MIAMI HEAT

 

It’s crazy how the Heat has been slept on this season. At 41-24, Miami owns the fourth best record in the East. Currently, they trail the third place Celtics by 2.5 games and two games ahead of Indiana. After playing the eight regular season games, the Heat is likely to finish no higher than the third seed since the Raptors are 5.5 games ahead in second.

When play stopped, the Heat featured a near immaculate 27-5 home record, the third best mark in the league. They were also forth in the East in terms of point differential (112.2 points per game on offence, 108.9 defense).  The duo of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo has paid off nicely. Not to mention the emergence of Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson also made the Heat an intriguing wild card team.

 

What to watch

 

    The Heat has the mettle to pull off an upset. That was very evident when the Heat beat Milwaukee at home a month before league suspension. In that game, the Heat was hell defensively. They held the Bucks to 40.7  percent from the field and 20.6 percent from three. Not only did they  trapped Giannis Antetokounmpo on the blocks, they put Adebayo on him as well. That’s significant because Adebayo is one of the few guys in the NBA that could effectively match up with Antetokounmpo in terms of speed and size. He also has the length to contest.

When a big and difficult defender like Adebayo is out of the paint, it is tempting to shoot threes and long jumpers because you can’t attack the paint. Remember, Antetokounmpo’s most glaring weakness is his outside shot.

If the Heat and Bucks meet up in the playoffs, notice how Erick Spoeletra will throw different schemes featuring Adebayo at Antetokoumpo.   Miami also has an X-Factor for the run in Andre Iguodala. Added at the trade deadline, Iguodala brings playoff-savvy and experience to a relatively young team. He’s also another solid defender and a playmaker that will help stabilize a second unit.

 

 

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

 

    Portland has had an interesting year to say the least.  Coming off of a Western Conference finals appearance a season ago, it seemed as if the Blazers were projected to remain a contender this season. However, injuries to key players happened and the Blazers spent this season languishing and hustling to make the playoffs.

At 29-37, the Blazers are ninth in the West and are among the teams invited to Orlando in hopes of a play-in for the eighth seed. Damian Lilliard has done all he could do to keep the Blazers’ playoff hopes alive in the midst of injuries. Don’t bet against him and CJ McCollum carrying the team in to the playoffs and even beyond.

What to watch

 

Before the season was suspended, the Blazers were on the verge of getting Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins back from injury.  A year ago, Nurkic injured his left leg, and was out for most of the season. In Nurkic, the Blazers lost a third scoring option and a solid interior defender. He was very close to a return before the shutdown-going to Santa Cruz to rehab. Now, with an additional three months of rest and rehab on his own, watch how the Blazers bring him back.  Since he hasn’t played all season, it is possible that Nurkic will be on minutes restriction for the final eight games. If he makes strides, look for coach Terry Stotts to gradually increase minutes.

In addition to how they will use Nurkic post injury, look for how the younger players such as Nassir Little, Anfernee Simons respond to games where the stakes are considerably higher. Those guys were thrust into playing more minutes in the season due to injuries to not only Nurkic and Collins but also Rodney Hood.  They will need to contribute to take the pressure off of Lillard and McCollum, in order to make a run.

 

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

 

    Remember, this is the team that pushed the Raptors to the brink of elimination in last year’s playoffs. So, it’s not surprising that the Sixers have 8-1 odds of winning the East and a 25-1 overall odds to win the championship.

Philadelphia, at 39-26 is sixth in the East, and was 13 games above .500 before suspension. They posted a league’s best 29-2 at home, but on the road, they were 10-24. In Orlando, there are no home court advantages and road records don’t matter. What matters is whether or not the Sixers have enough of talent to not to dwell on the laurels of home success and the agony of failures on the road.

Luckily for the Sixers, Ben Simmons is expected to be healthy after a back injury he sustained in February. Judging from his latest pictures floating around social media, it appears that he added some bulk as well. They also have a playoff battle tested vet in Al Hortford, to compliment the team. They have the potential to put it together for a deep run.

 

What to watch

 

Last month, Sixers coach Brett Brown said that he wants Joel Embiid to play about 38 minutes per game in the playoffs. His usage rate, post ups per game and three attempts have been similar to last season. Embiid’s production will need to increase during those minutes.

Simmons is already a tough defending point guard. In the playoffs, the question is if he can be effective offensively against a set half court defense. Is facilitating from the elbow, setting picks and rolling to the basket enough?  That depends of whether Simmons is comfortable and confident in his shot. If he isn’t he should be able to drive, create contact and hit free throws down the stretch.

 

****

Jannelle Moore (@Jannelle12)  is a new contributor to Five Reasons Sports Network. She has written for USA Today and SB Nation, among other outlets.

Hoop History: Ralph Sampson, 1982, & The NBA Draft

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You’re probably wondering who that random dude in the crowd is. That’s normal. I’ll spare you the detective work—his name is Ralph Sampson. Who is Ralph Sampson? I’ll spare you the reading time:

Here’s a terrifying prospect—in 1982, Ralph Sampson, who was in attendance for Game 1 of that year’s NBA Finals between the Sixers and Lakers, had the option of declaring for the NBA Draft through what was known at the time as the Hardship Exception.

After winning the NBA title over Philly in six games, the Lakers—shockingly—had the #1 pick that summer. They took James Worthy. Imagine a league today where the recently-crowned champion has a Top 2 pick in the NBA Draft.

The closest we’ve come to that has been the 2002-03 Détroit Pistons, who had the #2 pick in the ’03 Draft—as we already know, they went on to win the 2004 NBA Finals. Darko Miličić does. Suppose the Lakers take Ralph Sampson #1 overall?

Dominique Wilkins’ career numbers.

Or even Dominique Wilkins, as I mentioned earlier? Could you imagine Magic running the floor with Byron Scott and Nique for the next decade, especially considering the latter’s scoring output didn’t dip under 17 PPG until he turned 38 years old?

As a reference, James Worthy’s career would last only 11 years, forcing him into retirement in 1994 after a series of knee injuries ended his career at only 32 years of age. Injuries don’t care who you are, and we’ve seen how they’ve changed NBA History.

As we would eventually find out, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who had already turned 34 years old prior to the 1982 NBA Finals, would go on to play another seven full seasons in the NBA before retiring at the ripe old age of 42 at the end of the 1989 NBA Finals.

How much more could the Lakers have won with a dynamic duo of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Ralph Sampson up front? This means that Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon never form the Twin Towers in Houston. This means that there’s no Rockets upset of the Lakers in the 1986 Western Conference Semifinals.

Could this mean that a younger Sampson, not burdened with the fortunes of a franchise desperately in need of a new center with Moses Malone traded to Philadelphia, has a healthier career? Maybe. Do the Lakers, now equipped with Kareem and Sampson inside, still struggle with a dominant Malone inside the following season?

This is the fun part about these what-if scenarios. We might never truly know. Who knows, maybe the draft order, due to shifting talent in Houston and elsewhere, changes in the summer of 1984, meaning someone other than the Chicago Bulls is awarded the #3 pick. You know where this is going.

This means that Michael Jordan takes flight elsewhere—like Portland [they had the #2 pick here on Earth-1], Dallas [#4], or even—amazingly enough—in Philadelphia [5th] alongside his idol Julius Erving, Moses Malone, Mo Cheeks, and Bobby Jones (instead of Charles Barkley).

As a reference, the Sixers went 58-24 in 1984-85, and that was with Charles Barkley not starting for 22 games. Replace him with a young and superior Michael Jordan in that lineup, just two years removed from a dominant 1982-83 campaign. How do you count them out, even against a dominant Lakers team that season? With Sir Charles, they split the season series with L.A. (122-116, W on 12/07/1984; 104-109, L on 01/25/1985). Don’t they win with MJ instead?

And what does that mean for the rest of the decade? Imagine that if you must.

And it all starts with Ralph Sampson coming early out of college.

This is fun.

—

Born in Brooklyn and raised in Boca Raton, Ricky J. Marc, J.D., M.S. is an alumnus of the Obama White House and Cornell Paris Institute, a former Legislative Aide with both the Florida House of Representatives and Florida Senate, and a graduate of St. Thomas University with a Juris Doctor and Master of Science in Sports Administration.

Ricky currently resides in Paris, France, is the host of the The RJM Experience (available everywhere podcasts are found), and is the host of the upcoming STICK TO SPORTS: A Sports Podcast (That Isn’t) series.

Follow him on Twitter @RickyJMarc. His life matters.