It’s Time To Stop Doubting Tyler Herro

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[steps to podium]

[taps mic]

Hi, hello, is this thing on?

[Adjusts collar]

My name is Nekias Duncan, and I was wrong about Tyler Herro.

It’s typically unwise to have any definitive opinion on rookies, but this one seems pretty obvious.

To say that I was vocal about my displeasure of his selection would be an understatement. There may or may not have been discussions of a shift to Hawks coverage.

I made the mistake of hammering home Herro’s weaknesses and underselling his strengths. I didn’t take his “prove the haters wrong” ethos seriously enough; it’s especially egregious for two reasons.

1) This feature from Bleacher Report’s Mirin Fader laid out Herro’s background beautifully. This isn’t your typical bookmark-a-tweet-for-motivation guy; he’s shrugged off death threats and vandalism from a young age.

2) After the brief stint of mediocrity the Heat went through, and the success of the Bam Adebayo pick specifically, the Heat zeroing in on Herro the way they did should’ve been a clear sign that they saw something special.

That didn’t stop me from being upset with the pick. The takes I let fly on draft night were laughable at best, cringeworthy at worst. They’re going to be laugh fodder for quite some time. Honestly, it’s well deserved.

It’s so well deserved, that I’m going to make the job a little easier for everyone. I took the “pleasure” of listening back to the draft night pod I did and transcribing everything I said. I will not bore you with all of the “come on, mans” , but I will gladly own up to the biggest things I got wrong.

Think of this piece as The Laughing Pad instead of The Launching Pad.

(Direct quotes in bold, analysis underneath.)

Like, he hasn’t shown – I mean he went to Kentucky, so obviously that plays a part – but he hasn’t shown flashes of being a real creator. So I don’t understand what they saw.

For the sake of clarity, it’s important to note that I was speaking through the lens of potential star potential. From the limited amount of Kentucky I had seen at the time, Herro did not seem like a true break-you-down prospect,

Of course, my view lightened a bit once I saw more of him. That led to me writing this piece on his offensive upside, and then somehow coming away more impressed after Summer League play.

Tyler relocates well and can hit spot-ups. He’s not flinging off-balance threes like Wayne [Ellington] was. And maybe he gets there when he improves the footwork, but if that’s the upside, it doesn’t make sense. Miami needs shot creation – sign a shooter.

Technically true! Herro isn’t hitting threes with the finesse that Ellington did. He does a much better job of establishing his base, and is better shooting off the dribble than Ellington was.

 

Herro has shown comfort getting himself out of jams, favoring a mean right-to-left stepback jumper. Via Synergy, he’s generating 0.96 points per possession on off-the-dribble jumpers, placing him in the 63rd percentile. Second Spectrum’s tracking data has Herro at 15-of-28 (53.6 percent) on stepbacks, with a 4-of-10 clip (40 percent) on stepback triples.

Also, it turns out the Heat didn’t need to sign a shooter. Duncan Robinson (42.5 percent on 6.5 attempts) has more than filled that slot.

If you’re going to take a flier, take the flier on KPJ (Kevin Porter Jr.) and hope that he can create.

Here’s how these two stack up in isolation + pick-and-roll creation.

Porter Jr: 64 possessions, 47 points (0.734 PPP), 23-of-64 from the field (35.9 percent)

Herro: 108 possessions, 81 points (0.75 PPP), 32-of-84 from the field (38.1 percent)

Neither are great marks, and it’s worth noting the difference in .. um .. team quality. The fact remains that Herro has been better, and the gap widens (at least statistically) once you factor in passing (0.924 PPP vs 0.787 PPP).

If you’re gonna take a 6’5ish guard that can do some stuff, take Nickeil Alexander-Walker if you’re gonna go that route. At least he can create some in pick-and-roll. He’s not a great athlete, but he has some length.

More numbers, shall we?

NAW: 21-8-7 per 100 possessions, 32/32/69 shooting split, 0.856 PPP in pick-and-roll (passes included)

Herro: 24-7-3 per 100 possessions, 45/39/83 shooting split, 0.914 PPP in pick-and-roll (passes included)

Oddly enough, both players entered this year’s draft with finishing questions. Herro’s lack of length was harped on by yours truly, while NAW’s lack of vertical pop was a cause for concern.

Through the early portion of the season, Herro has been below average (52.8 percent at the rim, via Synergy), while NAW has been outright dreadful (39.5 percent).

As much as I got harped on for the Brandon Clarke love because of his 6’8 wingspan, Brandon Clarke is the second best athlete in the draft. Who *also* has ridiculous IQ defensively. So at least there’s a path to making that work. What does Tyler do [on that end]?

Rebound. The answer is rebound.

There are other things to note. Herro has been mostly fine as a positional defender. He’s generally where he needs to be off the ball, tracks pretty well over screens, and has the dig-and-recover sequence down when enemies attack the basket.

His ability to end possessions is just not something I saw coming. “Gritty” is generally a white-flavored buzzword, but he genuinely doesn’t mind mixing it up for tough boards.

 

 

Herro’s 14.1 defensive rebound rate outpaces notable guard rebounders like James Harden (13.8) and Jimmy Butler (13.1), and is right in the wheelhouse of Memphis Grizzlies wunderkind (and big man) Jaren Jackson Jr. (14.4).

Do the Heat want to throw Herro on elite scorers with regularity? Probably not. Practice stories and an impressive showing against Devin Booker aside, Herro does struggle to contain quicker guards off the dribble.

But were his defensive shortcomings a bit overblown? Probably so. He’s smart, physical, and helps the team end possessions. The flash plays are nice when they come, but he’s ultimately done his job.

Oh … I would take Rui [Hachimura if available]. Again, the bar is the floor, but also .. man that’s tough. If Tyler had an average frame, then you could say ‘well Kentucky normally compresses their guys’ roles and he can already shoot some, so maybe he has some hidden playmaking ability and he can be fine on defense.’ But the guy has a 6’3 wingspan. Like, he has alligator arms.

1) OOF.

2) Even with the caveat that Rui has been a little better than expected, that’s … oof. The phyiscal tools are tantalizing, but he’s been a not-at-all-insignificant part of the Wizards’ historically bad defense.

3) Every single one of those Kentucky caveats were true, even with the “alligator arms.”

I did this with Bam, so obviously I *want* to be wrong. But, like, nah. This is different than the Bam pick.

It’s quite different from the Bam pick for a very specific reason: Herro has shut me up with a lot more force.

Adebayo has been incredible this season, placing his name firmly in talks for the Most Improved Player award, the Defensive Player of the Year award, and the All-Star team.

Herro has been, at the absolute worst, the third best rookie in this year’s class. Winning Rookie of the Year isn’t out of the question, especially if Zion Williamson doesn’t see the floor much this season.

The Heat have nailed back-to-back end-of-the-lotto picks and I didn’t like either of them at the time of their selection. Either I’m an incredible jinx — maybe! — or this organization deserves a lot more credit (and faith) for their ability to scout.

It’s probably the latter.

Season Ticket: This Miami Heat start is real… and spectacular

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You know it when you see it.

You know it when you hear it.

And we’ve seen it. We’ve heard it. We’ve seen how these Miami Heat players have interacted with each other since training camp in West Palm Beach, or even prior, when the group workout clips started circulating on social media, including the ones of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, the new Heat heartbeat welcoming the fresh-faced, drippy prodigy to the NBA and team fraternity, no pledging or hazing required. We’ve heard how the front office and coaching staff has spoken about this collective, about how selfless they are, about how connected they are, about how hungry they are, about how versatile they are, about how precocious they are. “This has a chance to be one of my favorite groups,” a Heat official who has been with the team for more than two decades told me in early September. “Just watch. People are underestimating us. This has a chance to happen fast.”

And we believed them. Or at least I believed them. I even put your money where my mouth was, suggesting you go over the 43 wins that the Las Vegas oddsmaker set on the futures table, suggesting you look seriously at Bam Adebayo as a Most Improved Player candidate, Erik Spoelstra as a Coach of the Year option and even Butler as a Most Valuable Player darkhorse. My co-hosts on Five on the Floor took a little more time, perhaps. But they came around too. They saw what I saw and kept saying — if you give Spoelstra an less cluttered roster full of motivated players with a defensive mindset, special things can happen.

So we’re not surprised about this, not completely, not on the Five on the Floor podcast. Impressed, but not surprised. Not that it’s gone well. This well? Starting 17-6, after a 110-105 overtime victory against the Chicago Bulls on Sunday evening, giving them as more wins than 25 of 29 other teams? Winning all 10 home games, after underperforming badly at American Airlines Arena in recent seasons? Losing only to teams that are currently in the playoffs, with all but Minnesota well over .500 entering Sunday’s play? Doing this while shelving more than $25 million (James Johnson, Dion Waiters) for assorted issues; while missing two of the three primary ballhandlers (Justise Winslow, Goran Dragic) of late; while relying on two rookies (Herro, Kendrick Nunn), one 19 and one undrafted, as two of their five leading scorers; while counting on two more projects (Duncan Robinson, Chris Silva) in the rotation?

Posting the same record through 23 games as the LeBron-Wade-Bosh Big Three Heat did in each of their final three seasons together, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14? And two games better than that Hall of Fame-stacked squad did in its first season together (2010-11)? A game better than the Heat started in Shaquille O’Neal’s first season (2004-05)? Four games better than the Heat started after acquiring Alonzo Mourning (1995-96)? And, of course, nine games better through 23 than during Dwyane Wade’s rookie season?

OK, maybe a little.

But it’s real.

This is what the Heat are — or at least, this is the floor. There likely won’t be a championship, not yet, but there won’t be a collapse. Barring a major injury, something more significant to a primary contributor than what has caused Winslow and Dragic to miss 18 combined games, with both soon to return, this team should continue to improve as the season progresses. There’s simply no reason they shouldn’t. Yes, there will be bumps. Every season, every roster, has them. The Big Three teams had them. So why wouldn’t these guys? We’ve already seen Nunn encounter some, especially on the road against better opponents, with prepared teams taking advantage of his tunnel vision. We’ve seen Adebayo pass when he should shoot; that played a prominent role in his seven turnovers Sunday, the only nit in his otherwise superlative statline. We’ve seen Butler struggle more with his jumpshot than in recent seasons. And we haven’t seen enough of Winslow and Butler together to know whether, offensively, it can really work.

But you know what else we’ve seen?

Trust in each other.

Passion under pressure.

Growth individually, and together.

And winning at less than their best.

Take Sunday. Yes, take it. Embrace it, in all of its ugliness. Choppy. Uneven. Unsightly at times. And yet, when it mattered, when the customary closer (Butler) had lost his legs, when his shots were coming up short — when he was already so weary that he would spend several minutes slumped in his locker stall later, acknowledging his exhaustion — he turned to a kid who was born exactly one year prior to George W. Bush’s first inauguration. A kid most of Miami didn’t want Pat Riley to select, even with John Calipari’s endorsement and that Kentucky pedigree. A kid who wore the loudest outfit on draft night but speaks to media members in the quietest voice. A kid who has that ideal combination of conformity and cockiness, who wants to work and then work his opponents over. A kid who won over a demanding, star teammate in a way that three former No. 1 overall picks (guys named Towns and Wiggins and Simmons) clearly did not in previous stops.

A kid who scored 27, including three three-pointers at critical times after a slow start to the night, including 16 of the Heat’s final 18, including 11 in overtime.

“You saw in college, with the biggest moments, that’s where he was playing his best,” Spoelstra said Sunday of Herro. “If your max player trusts you in these moments….”

That Butler does. Implicitly.

“We’ve got a lot in common, to tell you the truth,” Butler said. “But more than anything, I respect the way he works, the way he carries himself.”

Their big/little brother bond is obvious. Been obvious. And that trust has been remarkable and refreshing.

But not more than Herro trusts himself. He trusts his shot like he trusts his wardrobe. As he told me when I asked in camp who has the most “drip” in the NBA: “I do.” Who’s second? “No one’s close.”

Sunday, the Bulls weren’t close enough to him on the floor. Not after Butler drew the defense. Not after scrambles.

Not when it counted.

It looked like he was seeking those opportunities. To be the hero or goat.

At 19.

Sunday night, he stood in front of the locker stall that LeBron and Shaq once did.

“Uh, yeah,” Herro said. “I don’t shy away from taking the big shot. I have a lot of confidence. So down the stretch, Jimmy trusts me with the ball. He got me it in good spots, and I knocked down a couple of threes.”

Matter of fact.

Surprised the Bulls weren’t closing out harder?

“They had to pick their poison, either Jimmy or me,” Herro said, with a hint of a laugh.

Then he remembered he’s a rookie. On a team like this. Where everyone praises. Everyone trusts. No one steps out too much, drip or no drip.

“… Or… there were three other guys on the floor with us, that will hurt them too. So they had to pick their poison.”

Some fans picked up and left when LeBron did. It got too difficult. Too many Henry Walkers and Danny Grangers. Too little Bosh. Too many poor offseason decisions, at least during 2016 and 2017. Too much heartache when Wade bolted, at least until he returned. Too little that was real, even that 30-11 finish to 2016-17 that duped the front office even more than it did the public. But this organization never stays down too long. It reinvents. It reinvigorates. It reminds you of what it has been, and likely will be again. Sunday, a kid who looks nothing like Wade brought back memories of how Wade introduced himself way back in 2003, with moments like these, moments that let you know he was different, and his teams would be different. Moments that made you look forward to years. Moments that confirm what we’ve been seeing and hearing since the spring and summer, when the moves all started to make sense — and if you started paying attention then, or even now, you picked a damn good time to come back.

Ethan J. Skolnick has covered the Miami Heat since 1996, and now hosts the Five on the Floor podcast. 

 

The Mourning Edition: The Miami Heat’s First Quarter Checkup

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Welcome to The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The Miami Heat are the NBA’s most predictable team.

Unless they’re not.

They both are who we thought they were and nothing like we imagined. And they might metamorphose several times over during the upcoming months.

They have core philosophies built around dogged defense and cohesive culture, but so much about this iteration of South Beach’s finest remains unknown.

Miami might be way ahead of schedule. Or it may not be ready for the Association’s aristocracy. It could have its first alpha scorer of the post-Big Three era. But Jimmy Butler isn’t always looking for his shot, and a lot of times, he shouldn’t.

This could be a slow climb toward title contention. But if Pat Riley gets antsy, maybe he consolidates the prospect collection in a megamove for an accelerating star.

That’s a long-winded way of saying even at the quarter-mark of the 2019-20 season, it’s unclear who these Heat are⁠—or what they can become. Still, there’s enough data on file for us to take stock what’s real, what maybe isn’t and what could change down the road.

The Foundation

There are three key cogs in this Miami machine: Butler, Bam Adebayo and Justise Winslow. (If you’re unclear whether Winslow belongs in that triad, you should try watching a game some time.) OK, it’s really five with Riley and Erik Spoelstra added to the mix.

Under that quartet, the backbone becomes obvious. It’s defense, versatility and a military-like commitment to conditioning designed to exhaust the opposition.

“Miami’s always been the team that everybody around the league respects because they play hard, they have a DNA, they have an identity,” Phoenix Suns coach Monty Williams said.

“Their approach never changes in terms of who they are,” Golden State Warriors skipper Steve Kerr said during a recent visit to South Florida. “They’re always tough, defensive-minded.”

Some stoppers may be stingier than others, but the expectations are consistent across the board. When sharpshooting rookie Tyler Herro showed up, they tasked him with guarding Butler⁠—on day one.

Roughly two weeks into his NBA career, Herro booted Butler out of the way so he could defend Devin Booker, one of only 11 players ranked among the top-25 in points and assists per game.

That’s the manifestation of culture, the transfer of hoops DNA.

That’s how a team overhauls its roster—five of last season’s top nine in minutes played are gone, and one is out of the rotation (Dion Waiters)—and still snags the eighth overall spot in defensive efficiency, with ample room for improvement.

On the offensive end, the team-wide commitment to movement is no different.

When Butler arrives with a $140 million contract in hand and four All-Star selections to his credit and still shares the sugar, how can the rest not fall in line? No one has pondered that question, because everyone is on board. Miami, which doesn’t really have a natural point guard on the roster, sits sixth in assist percentage and seventh in points created by assists.

As Spo likes to put it, the Heat are “building habits.” The more they can carry forward, the more sustainable this success becomes.

The Possible Pitfalls

If the campaign closed today, Miami would have its third-highest winning percentage in franchise history.

Clearly, this club is better than almost everyone realized. But is it really headed toward a more successful season than three of the four Big Three campaigns? That’s probably asking too much of this roster.

Butler looks comfortable as a closer and capable of typically delivering whatever this team needs. But he doesn’t always seize control of this offense in moments when it’s obviously waiting on his guidance.

“Sometimes he’s too passive,” Bam Adebayo said earlier this season. “I got to get on his ass a little bit when he’s too passive. I got to over there and whisper in his ear and be like, ‘Yo, we didn’t bring you here to just pass.'”

Two of the Heat’s top-five scorers are freshmen. Some might chalk that up as Herro and Kendrick Nunn having advanced ability and maturity, and that’s partly true. But the players are still rookies, and it shows when they play away from AmericanAirlines Arena or against the league’s top competition.

Herro has been a 54.0 percent shooter and 48.7 percent three-point sniper inside the AAA. Away from it, those numbers plummet to 38.1 and 32.9, respectively. With Nunn, he loses nearly five field-goal percentage points (46.1 to 42.6) and more than 14 percentage points off his perimeter conversion rate (44.2 to 30.2) when he balls away from Biscayne.

The two have also struggled against the juggernauts. Boil down their production to contenders only—Boston, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Toronto—and Nunn becomes a 30 percent shooter (20 from deep) while Herro lands at 35.2 (32.6).

It’s emblematic of their offensive struggles overall against the league’s stone walls. As Heat.com’s Couper Moorhead observed, the Heat are 29th in offense against top 10 defenses and shot an anemic 31.8 percent from distance in those games.

None of this means the sky is falling. But there were reasons we all looked at this roster before the season and wondered if it had enough scoring or sniping.

The Growth Potential

The quarter checkup on the Heat gets no more encouraging than this—They have a 16-6 record despite being in the early stages of their evolution.

Butler will only get more comfortable grabbing control of this attack, as he already has with two triple-doubles in his last three games. Adebayo will keep developing on the offensive end; his flashes make you salivate. Winslow will find his niche, or given his Swiss Army knife abilities, maybe a dozen different niches.

Spo has some aces up his sleeve he may not reveal for months. His possible closing lineup of Butler, Adebayo, Winslow, Herro and Kelly Olynyk has logged just six minutes together. Swap out Herro for Goran Dragic, and you have a quintet that’s yet to see the floor.

Derrick Jones Jr. or James Johnson could give this rotation a new twist. Riley might give it a more dramatic makeover if a second star fits his price range and doesn’t disrupt the 2021 financial outlook.

We’ve seen plenty from the Heat, but almost assuredly not their best.

“We’re capable of it,” Butler told reporters recently. “We are. When we lock in and we worry about ourselves and we get lost in it and play hard, we’re going to be a very good team.”

GUTS CHECK: Dragic Delivers, Herro Heroics, Jimmy the Closer

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Lost at Houston 117-108
  • Won vs Golden State 122-105
  • Won at Brooklyn 109-106

Current Record: 14-5, 3rd in the Eastern Conference

 Goran Guts

After seeing Dragic nearly dealt this summer I was resigned to the possibility that Dragon was the player most likely to be traded out of everyone on the entire roster. A $20 million dollar expiring contract? Former All Star, veteran point guard available via trade? It felt inevitable he would be a hot name on the NBA trade rumor mill all season.

Forgive me Gogi! I was so wrong.

Dragic is flat out balling. Nearly indispensable most nights, he has proven to be a key cog off the bench in this new role. Goran Dragic is doing the things that earn you Heat Lifer status.

Dragic is firmly in the early race for 6th man of the year honors, particularly if the Heat continue to win at it’s current mid .700% clip.

Forget a mere expiring contract, barring an unforeseen star level talent becoming available, I don’t see a reasonable scenario where it make sense to trade Dragic. He’s been a Top 3 player since Opening Night.

It helps that Jimmy is in Goran’s corner in such a major way.

Did anyone see that coming? Does anyone even have the guts to tell Jimmy otherwise?

Seeing Dragic accept whatever role necessary to help impact winning, approach this season with vigor that is showing by virtue of the rejuvenated shooting touch (among other things) really begs the question – will Miami explore retaining Dragic on a team friendly deal (if possible) this summer?

An argument could be made that the emergence of Kendrick Nunn, combined with the commitment to Justise Winslow makes the idea of retaining Dragic long term appear far-fetched. However, I think we might be surprised at what unfolds in that regard when the time arrives next summer.

Herro Heroics

I don’t really have a bunch of stats handy to support this next statement but here goes…

Tyler Herro is going to be a star. A STAR.

He is the most polished Heat rookie in the history of the franchise. Yeah, it’s precisely like that.

Kid is so smooth. Absolutely insane body control, footwork, ability to maintain his follow through no matter the circumstance. I think I’m in love.

The way he raises up and gets his looks despite sometimes being pressured (at an athletic disadvantage I might add) is straight out of the Ray Allen book of shot making.

For now, the Heat should consider Tyler Herro the closest thing to an untouchable player they have on the roster. (Jimmy & UD excluded).

Meyers Leonard for the Culture

5 on the Floor podcast extraordinaire Alphonse Sidney’s main man is earning Heat Culture clout left and right.

That comment makes Heat fans want to run through walls for Meyers. Who knew the Heat would get such a significantly better fit both on and off the court when they swapped Whiteside for Leonard? We all did.

Shame on us for not identifying a young player playing for a contract who is taking advantage of the Culture.

Box score watchers will scoff at Leonard’s ability to secure a long-term deal of any significance this summer. However, if he works together with the organization on a potential one-year deal, he could conceivably secure a wink-wink mid-level exception pay back in summer 2021 from the Heat. They love what he brings to the team.

Always Be Closing: A Butler Chronicle

What we watched unfold at the end of the game in Brooklyn was the living embodiment of why you obtain the Jimmy Butlers of the world. Why you do it at all costs. Having a player that can impose his will and steal games, particularly on the road, is not quantifiable on the stat sheet.

Jimmy took complete control of the end of the game against Brooklyn in a way that was downright comforting to watch. The way he dictated tempo and forced the refs to make decisions was the stuff Heat Culture Alphas are made of. We finally have that guy again!

As always, IRWT.

That’s it for this week, but let’s say it loud and clear…all in together now….

This Heat team is for real.

Launching Pad: Bam’s Barriers, Winslow’s Return, Herro’s Happy Feet

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 14-5 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 109.5 (114.3)

• Defensive Rating: 103.5 (107.0)

• Net Rating: plus-6.0 (plus-7.3)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.1 (59.6)

• Pace: 101.1 (99.8)

• Time of Possession: 14.5 seconds (14.7)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk

• Minutes: 10

• Offensive Rating: 160.0

• Defensive Rating: 109.5

• Net Rating: plus-50.5

• True-Shooting Percentage: 77.2

• Pace: 98.73

The Big Number: 31.1

You can bank on three things in this thing called life: death, taxes, and the Heat having one of the best defenses in the league.

As of today, the Heat rank 7th in defensive rating. They’ve done so behind a “drop” scheme that has effectively kept opponents out of the paint (7th fewest rim attempts allowed). On the other hand, they’ve also bled three-point attempts, particularly above the break. Opponents are attempting nearly 28 above-the-break triples per game, the 6th most in the league.

The good news: teams are only converting 31.1 percent of those looks, a number that only ranks behind the Chicago Bulls (31.0) and the Denver Nuggets (30.5).

That specific portion of the Heat’s defense will be tested this week with match-ups against the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, and the Washington Wizards. All three squads have pull-up artists that can make the Heat pay from deep if the ball pressure isn’t there.

Weekly Trends

1. Bam’s half-court struggles

We talked about Miami’s half-court offense in last week’s edition, but mostly within the context of their loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. The general verdict was that the Heat needed more on-ball juice from the perimeter, and there needed to be some sort of plan for Bam Adebayo.

It’s safe to say we got a glimpse of that in Sunday’s match-up against the Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets bigs, as they generally do against non-shooters, basically ignored Adebayo in the half-court. Their “one-man zone” kept Jarrett Allen or DeAndre Jordan at the basket while Adebayo operated from the perimeter.

Just look at the contrast between how Adebayo guards Jordan, and how that flips on the other end.

 

 

For the most part, the results weren’t great. Adebayo missed some jumpers, forced some passes, and ultimately looked flustered. The fact that he finished with 17 & 16 is a testament to his never-ending motor.

There’s some work to be done here. A bunch of this rides on Adebayo and his confidence. He needs to become respected as an on-ball threat. That won’t come without reps.

If teams are going to instruct their centers to basically ignore him outside of the paint, he needs to do one of two things for himself. Either he has to pull the trigger on more mid-range attempts (he’s 15-of-31 on shots between 10-19 feet), or he has to use the runway teams are giving him to explode to the basket.

More of that, please.

The Heat also need to also need to make sure they’re putting Adebayo in positions to succeed when teams employ that strategy. If they aren’t going to break from their handoff counters (which isn’t a bad thing), we’re going to need to see more of the Tyler Herro-Adebayo pairing. Herro is the best pull-up shooter the Heat have, and will be able make aggressive “drop” defenses pay if they play with a huge cushion.

2. Justise Winslow’s return

Miami’s favorite enigma returned to action on Wednesday against the Houston Rockets. His minutes haven’t exactly been limited since he’s been back (30.3), but Erik Spoelstra has notably (and, to this point, correctly) decided to bring Winslow off the bench.

Nothing from Winslow’s three-game stint should be surprising. The playmaking flashes have still been there:

 

 

He’s defended pretty well when he’s been on the perimeter. His 4th quarter defense against Spencer Dinwiddie on Sunday was particularly impressive. Winslow remains quite good at wiggling through screens and staying connected to ball handlers.

On the flip side, Winslow hasn’t had much success at all as a scorer. He’s hit half of his shots at the rim (4-of-8) and has been a disaster outside of the paint. The three-point shot isn’t just off right now; it looks different.

I’m no shot doctor, but it seems like he’s tinkered with his release point in an effort to speed things up. It may very well pay off in the long run, but it’s hard not to cringe at stuff like this:

 

 

Winslow coming off the bench has also meant playing a ton of minutes at the 4 defensively. It … hasn’t looked great. Winslow at the 4 should be complemented by a shift towards switching. Instead, the Heat have mostly elected to maintain their “drop” principles, leading to some pretty ugly miscommunications.

Time will heal some of those wounds. As ugly as it’s been for Winslow at times, the Heat have still been much better with him on the court since he’s returned. The offense plays faster and shoots better from the field. The defense is stingier and has a higher success rate ending possessions.

It’s okay to be concerned with Winslow’s half-court fit, but just remember there’s a multi-year sample at play with the Heat outscoring their opponents with Winslow on the floor.

Be patient.

3. The balance of Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro was rightfully dubbed with the “knockdown shooter” rep coming out of Kentucky. Some of us [coughs] questioned what else brought to the table, and he’s mostly shut some of us [clears throat] up with plus-passing feel and a growing catalog of get-out-of-my-way contested rebounds.

Still, the shooting is the calling card. Herro’s numbers are almost unprecedented for a rookie. They include, but are not limited to:

-a 40.4 percent from three on over five attempts

-a 1.57 (!!!) point per possession clip on spot-ups (99th percentile, via Synergy)

-an 82.7 adjusted field goal percentage on spot-ups

-a 1.83 point per possession clip on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (98th percentile)

Herro isn’t just a great shooter; he’s (statistically) on the path to become a true defense shifter in that regard. It’s easy to be impressed by his touch, but his footwork (settle down, Mr. Ryan) is what really steals the show when you watch. It doesn’t take much time or effort for him to set up shop, and that allows him to flow into pull-ups or side-step attempts easier than most.

 

 

Whew.

Bonus: Kelly Olynyk has found his groove

If you thought a six-minute outing against the Nets would prevent me from talking about Kelly Olynyk, you are sadly mistaken.

(His section was replaced by Herro’s, so I guess you weren’t that mistaken.)

Olynyk struggled to adjust to Miami’s screen-heavy offense in the early goings of the season. Over the past week or so, he’s found ways to inject his brand of spontaneity. The pitch-and-go chemistry with Winslow has picked up where it left off. He’s drilling above-the-break threes. Heck, his willingness to take them is a breath of fresh air in comparison to Miami’s starting center.

His play-style is plodding and weird. It never looks like it’s supposed to work, but it just … does?

 

 

The Heat have been nearly 19 points per 100 possessions better with Olynyk on the floor over their last five games. It’s safe to say he’s back in the flow of things.

Set Play of the Week

Draggin’ along

If you paid any attention to the Heat this preseason, you would’ve immediately picked up on their increased frequency of pick-and-rolls featuring two screeners. “Double Drag” is a common action across the league; Heat fans in particular should remember Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks doing whatever they wanted out of it last season.

The fundamental purpose of Double Drag is to strain multiple defenders at once. Against (what’s left of) the Golden State Warriors, the Heat added some decoy action to further scramble them.

The possession begins with Winslow bringing the ball up the floor. Goran Dragic executes an Iverson cut (running off two staggered screens) before receiving a pass on the right wing. The drag screen action then begins with Herro and Chris Silva as screeners.

The starting position of the pick-and-roll is already unusual; the added wrinkle of a spacer (Herro) slipping the screen is something that Steve Kerr would specifically appreciate.

The Warriors end up committing two to the ball, leaving Herro open in the corner. Dragic finds Hero, who caps off the possession with a pump fake, a side-step, and a rainbow.

GUTS CHECK: Recent Success, The Next 10, Spurs Trades, Sixers reaction

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won vs Cleveland 124-100
  • Won at Chicago 116-108
  • Lost at Philadelphia 113-86
  • Won vs Charlotte 117-100

Reflection Eternal

The week of Thanksgiving brings about a time for reflection of course.

Back on November 12th, the Heat returned home to face the Pistons after most recently losing in Los Angeles to move to 6-3 on the season. Despite losing 2 out of 3 on that west coast swing I talked about how the next 7-game stretch provided opportunity for the Heat to take off.

The goal was to go 6-1 in the next 7 games. Fast forward to today, and they did just that. The Heat knocked off the Hornets last night in impressive fashion to move to 12-4 on the season. 7-0 at home.

This is how I approach each season. Break it up into chunks. Especially with a team full of young players finding their way in new roles.

Consider the last two weeks of Miami Heat basketball a success. Short term mission accomplished.

It’s okay to be happy about where we are at this point of the season. Complaining is merely optional.

The Next 10

The Heat’s next 10 games culminate on the road in Dallas on December 14th. The significance of the timing to follow is that players signed last summer in 2019 free agency will be eligible to be traded on December 15th.

This also will mark the Heat surpassing the first 25 games of the season, with that being a magic number for the front office as it evaluates the roster. The 25 mark is intended to represent the first deep dive into viable trade scenarios. Which I have been told was the plan in place all along.

Side note: Heat will explore Demar Derozan and LaMarcus Aldridge if the Spurs press the eject button on this season.

Riley has pursued both in the past and the fact that many trade packages being floated could/would preserve 2021 flexibility makes for particularly intriguing short term options. Issue will be cost. Riley has been especially fond of Aldridge since his Blazer days.

However, I wouldn’t even rule out consideration being made to parting with Winslow if it meant they could shed Dion Waiters and James Johnson in the process. Just my 2 pennies. However, I think they rather see Winslow, Butler and Adebayo play together for an extended stretch before making any rash decisions.

Anyway, let’s look at the next 10 games in a snapshot:

Wed, 11/27 at Rockets

Fri, 11/29 vs Warriors

Sun, 12/1 at Nets

Tue, 12/3 at Raptors

Wed, 12/4 at Celtics

Fri, 12/6 vs Wizards

Sun, 12/8 vs Bulls

12/10 vs Hawks

12/13 vs Lakers

12/14 at Mavericks

Coach Spo talked about finding out what the team was made of versus Philadelphia (more on that in a second) but truthfully this next 10 games will tell us infinitely more.

The goal for this stretch?

7-3 and you consider it a resounding success. 6-4 is probably the realistic target. 6-4 or better would be enough to continue to approach any roster shakeup with caution. You probably even take 5-5 in the grand scheme. But at that point you start to explore potential upgrades, particularly buy low candidates. Cough LMA/Demar cough, cough.

4 of the next 5 games on the road, 3 against East playoff teams (plus 1 against a team that owes us an ass beating) makes the most immediate portion of our next 10 games the most daunting.

Got Guts?

In closing, what in the hell happened from Heat Nation on Saturday and Sunday after that Sixers loss?

Get a grip. It’s one game.

I’ve seen firm declarations about Philly’s size and the Heat’s matchup issues. I understand the potential challenges, but it’s November. We did not get any favors from the schedule Gods and were overdue for a bad shooting night.

Relax.

Josh Richardson went crazy, that isn’t happening over the course of a playoff series. If it does, that would be Hornets Jamal Mashburn all over again wouldn’t it? Gross to ponder. Luckily, Jimmy Butler isn’t Eddie Jones.

I think we will be surprised at how all of these perceived “mismatches” look when the teams meet again. Adjustments will be made. Despite what you may read on social media, Bam Adebayo can combat Joel Embiid playing him for the pass without turning into Brook Lopez.

Also, Justise Winslow is needed against a team like Philadelphia more than any other matchup.

Speaking of Justise, it sounds like #JustiseBetter now health wise. Hopefully we see him play in his hometown of Houston, TX on Wednesday.

 

Launching Pad: Half-Court Hiccups, Silva Slips, Duncan Decision

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 11-4 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 108.2 (110.1)

• Defensive Rating: 102.5 (107.7)

• Net Rating: plus-5.7 (plus-2.4)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.0 (60.4)

• Pace: 101.46 (99.0)

• Time of Possession: 14.4 seconds (15.0)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Chris Silva, Kelly Olynyk

• Minutes: 12

• Offensive Rating: 116.7

• Defensive Rating: 75.0

• Net Rating: plus-41.7

• True-Shooting Percentage: 61.2

• Pace: 92.41

The Big Number: 1.04

I’m here to make the case that the Heat are, at least statistically, the weirdest offensive team in the league. They’re insanely efficient, leading the NBA in true-shooting percentage. They’re also dead-last in turnover rate, giving it up on nearly 19 percent of their possessions. We’ll get into the nuts and bolts of their half-court offense shortly, but they’ve scored at the 7th best per-possession rate in the league.

If it were even possible, the Heat are even more confusing as a transition team. Despite ranking 12th in transition efficiency (110.6 points per 100 transition opportunities), they are the worst team in the NBA in converting buckets after turnovers. Their 1.04 point-per-possession mark is well below the 29th ranked Portland Trail Blazers (1.10).

You would think that kind of thing will regress positively as the year goes on, but it’s hard to put anything past this offense.

Weekly Trends

1. The Heat’s half-court elephant

Before I really dig in here, let me lay out the obvious caveats that have and will be ignored on Twitter.

Yes, the Miami Heat are really good, and have performed as an upper-echelon team in the East to this point.

Regular season games can inform, but it would be malpractice to overreact to one (1) game, particularly one on the road, and especially one on the road after playing less than 24 hours beforehand.

The Heat have been without Justise Winslow, who is, conservatively, their third best player. His versatility on both ends of the floor unlock a lot of what the Heat want to accomplish. His absence hurts in high-leverage match-ups.

Now, with that being said …

[takes a deep breath]

The Philadelphia Sixers showed just how far away the Heat are from being true contenders in the East on Saturday night.

It isn’t so much about the score, though a 113-86 drubbing doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence. There was some randomness at play that made the result look much worse than it was. For instance, the trio of Robinson, Nunn, and Meyers Leonard went a combined 0-of-9 from three. Most of those shots were wide open.

The process was worrisome, though. More specifically: the Heat have been able to flow with a cut-heavy, pass-happy half-court offense that just doesn’t work against teams as lengthy as Philadelphia. The Heat have already struggled with turnovers. When you have Joel Embiid playing eight or so feet off of Bam Adebayo as he operates from the elbow, life becomes much harder.

There’s nothing wrong with an egalitarian approach offensively. There’s value in empowering everyone, and Jimmy Butler has spearheaded that on and off the floor. I do think, however, it’s worth exploring just how much of that approach comes out of necessity.

The Heat’s most frequent pick-and-roll ball-handlers (passes excluded) — Goran Dragic, Nunn, and Butler – have generated 202 points on 240 possessions (0.841 points per possession). That number is simultaneously being brought down by Butler’s rough start (0.629 PPP) and held together by Nunn shooting 50 percent in those situations.

The Heat needed Butler to lead the charge on Saturday, and he couldn’t. Bad nights happen, so it shouldn’t be some sort of huge indictment. But this is the kind of match-up that validates Trade Machine Truthers; the Heat still appear to be a creator short. Winslow’s return will help, but Nunn may be the Heat’s best secondary shot creator. That .. isn’t a great sign through the lens of contention.

2. Catch ’em slippin’

Chris Silva has become a bit of a cult hero. His per-game numbers don’t jump off the page, but it’s hard not to like him when you pay attention. He’s a Dirty Work All-Star, doing his damage as an offensive rebounder and rim challenger.

(He hacks a ton — averaging 9.5 fouls per 36 minutes. That needs to be cleaned up soon.)

Silva sets good screens off the ball, but opts for slipping in pick-and-roll. He changes direction incredibly well, and has a good feel for defensive gaps. Once he senses a crease, he finds the pocket and dives right into it.

 

 

Silva has only registered seven possessions as the roller in pick-and-roll, via Synergy, but has already racked up 13 points. He’s a perfect 5-of-5 from the field as the roll-man, and four of those come via slips.

I’m all for calling him The Big Slipper — a play off of Wilt Chamberlain’s “Big Dipper” moniker.

3. Duncan Robinson’s starting claim

I’ve hinted at it before, let’s get definitive: Duncan Robinson deserves a full-time starting spot.

Robinson’s primary value comes as a spacer. He’s drilling 40.2 percent of his threes on hefty volume (6.5 attempts). Only 10 other players are shooting at least 40 percent on six or more attempts. Robinson is elite as a stand-still threat, but throws defenses for a loop with his off-ball movement. Whether he’s coming off screens or reading ball-handlers, Robinson bends defenses with his ability to relocate.

 

 

As of now, Robinson is still holding his weight defensively. He keeps his head on a swivel and mostly rotates on time. We’ve seen some nice strip/block flashes in transition, which … yeah, I didn’t really see those coming based on what he showed last season.

Robinson’s name appears in three of the Heat’s top five lineups that have been used this season, which is impressive considering that excludes the current starting lineup (plus-13.6). As long as the Heat aren’t blitzed defensively with him on the floor, there’s really no reason to pull him from the lineup.

Set Play of the Week

Going against the grain

Defending shooters in today’s NBA is tough enough. When coaches employ them as screeners (hello, Steve Kerr), defenses are forced into uncomfortable decisions. Fight over? Switch? Pray?

As covered in last week’s edition, the Heat have been getting mileage out of looping their shooters around in hopes of causing confusion. It’s what makes this play even more notable.

 

 

Above, Robinson kicks off the action by wrapping around Tyler Herro. The next option, assuming a switch comes, is for Robinson to screen for Herro before he flares out behind Silva. Fortunately for the Heat, switch doesn’t come.

Robinson’s defender stays attached, which would be fine if Robinson wasn’t now three feet from the rim. Robinson seals him off; Dragic delivers the pass, and the ball goes through the hoop.

It was one of many, many, many examples of the Bulls being exploited defensively. It’s also a window into how much of a pain it is to track shooters in tight spaces.

TEAM – Together. Everyone. Achieves. More. The 19-20 Heat.

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Ever since LeBron spurned Miami for Wasteland – Cleveland, HEAT fans have been desperate for the NEXT move. Even new signings are immediately viewed as “tradeable assets” to acquire the next guy. As children of Riley, we’re born and bred with the mindset of always keeping an eye on the future. We all fall victim to the trade machine. December 15 is practically a holiday on Twitter as we flood our timelines with hypothetical “who says no?” trade scenarios.

 

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Except, this season feels different. This current HEAT roster has quickly captivated the hearts of local fans and the attention of the national media. The energy, the selflessness, the toughness – THIS is what Miami Heat basketball is supposed to look like. For the first time since 2014, HEAT fans are living in the moment. Don’t believe me? Look for yourself….

 

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Not since 2003 have the Miami Heat had such a lovable squad. This is the most cohesive HEAT team I can remember in years! It’s not only that the pieces fit perfectly, it’s the way they play together.

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And that motto we love to throw around that defines our CULTURE – the hardest-working, best conditioned, most professional, unselfish, toughest, meanest, nastiest team in the NBA– is exactly how we would define the 2019-2020 HEAT team. It’s never been more evident than Wednesday night when Duncan “SNIPERSON” displayed his lethal stroke from downtown, draining NINE three pointers against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Every guy on the HEAT bench was on their feet with excitement as the ball went through the net.

What other franchise can take G-League players and turn them into legit NBA rotation pieces or, in the case of Kenrick Nunn, potential stars? Fans can talk themselves into believing they have a chance with any team, but this year, the Eastern Conference is truly up for grabs. And at a time when most HEAT fans are usually banging the table for Riley to work his trade magic, we are instead collectively rooting to see what this group as currently constructed can accomplish in the playoffs.

 

HEAT fans have patiently waited for a team to take the reins and lead the CULTURE into the franchise’s next phase, the A.W. (After Wade) years. And Jimmy Butler is the perfect leader for this franchise at this moment in time.

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And don’t look now, but Chris Silva is making that 30 on his back look more like 40 with his Udonis Haslem-esque warrior mentality. No question, this team is likely another move away from contending for a championship. But our biggest strengths are our depth and team unity. One trade can completely blow that up. We’ve seen what a difference one guy can make (Hey Hassan!) on team morale. Instead, fans are rallying behind a group of guys that are more focused on winning than personal stats. A group of guys that are looking to make plays for their teammates instead of themselves. A group of guys that will scratch and claw their way for every last rebound. And a group of guys that genuinely love playing for each other.

 

That’s the type of Miami Heat team fans will go to battle with 8 days a week!

 

How could we look towards the future, when we’re so in love with the present?

 

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The Mourning Edition: The Ceiling Has Blown Through The Roof

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Welcome to The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The NBA still hasn’t noticed what’s brewing on Biscayne.

Save for the sporadic cursory glances, no one has bothered taking much stock of the new-look Miami Heat. For the select few who have, their opinions on the team that Pat Riley built land somewhere between skepticism and outright pessimism.

Jimmy Butler says he’s as happy as ever after finding a spot that fits his personality. Doubters wonder how long the honeymoon will last.

The stat sheet regards the Heat as all-caps ELITE: tied for fourth in winning percentage, third in net efficiency. Power rankers shrug their shoulders and say, ‘Yeah, but who’ve they played?’

Miami landed eighth on the most ESPN rankings, while Royce Young quipped, “The schedule set them up for a three-game winning streak.”

Grand scheme, sure, the Heat get noting for playing a dominant month of basketball. But why have hoops heads decided this is the one early-season storyline no one needs to trust?

Is it really all because Butler had some messy divorces in his past? What if it just took him a few tries to find his perfect match? If at first you don’t succeed, right?

Remember, the good vibes started long before the win column ballooned.

“I feel that the way they go about everything here is the right way,” Butler said at his introductory press conference. “That’s what I am banking on. That’s why I am here.”

He might be a four-time All-Star now, but he’s also the player who went unranked out of Tomball (Texas) High School, who opened his college career at Tyler Junior College, who wasn’t selected until 30th overall in the 2011 draft (which he now leads in win shares) and who didn’t average double-digit points until his third NBA campaign.

His story of overcoming impossibly long odds is one shared by nearly everyone inside of this organization.

Goran Dragic was a second-round pick in 2008 and didn’t become a full-time starter until his age-26 season. Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Udonis Haslem and Chris Silva were all undrafted. Even head coach Erik Spoelstra is an old video coordinator who worked his way up through the ranks, and despite winning a pair of titles, he still seems underrated.

Even the “blue chips” aren’t what they seem.

Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro were lottery picks, but neither landed in the top 10. Adebayo was recently left off a Team USA team that had trouble attracting and retaining top talents. The Ringer graded the Herro selection as a C and questioned if he’d even stay on the floor. Justise Winslow, the 10th pick in 2015, has critics within the Heat’s own fanbase.

“Everybody is an underdog here,” Butler said at training camp. “If they’re not, they go about it as if they are.”

What if that shared mentality and willingness to work has bonded this locker room tighter than any he’s been involved in? What if he’s found something here that he was missing elsewhere?

Or, and I know this is a novel idea, what if we don’t play armchair psychologist and instead hear Butler express his contentment and just take his word for it until we have a current, valid reason to do otherwise?

His happiness can change everything. It already looks like it has.

He looks completely comfortable in his pass-first, score-when-needed role, and so does everyone else in the offense. This team has the Association’s second-highest assist percentage and no real natural point guard on the roster. Butler’s impact is real, and it’s spectacular, and doubting it only for the fear it might eventually get rocky seems like a miserable way to live.

As for the schedule-obsessed skeptics, good-to-great teams have long established that standing by beating up on bottom-feeders. Last season, the champion Toronto Raptors barely had a winning record against .500-or-better teams (22-20); the 50-win Utah Jazz (20-21) and 49-win Boston Celtics(17-25) were in the red.

Good-to-great clubs handle the teams they should and more or less tread water against anyone else. That’s exactly the model Miami has followed to this point. It has a perfect 7-0 mark against losing clubs—one of only four undefeated records against them—and a 3-3 mark against .500-plus teams, counting wins over Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks and James Harden’s Rockets.

ESPN’s RPI says the Heat have faced the eighth-toughest schedule so far. Why, exactly, is their path behind held against them?

Maybe people are just running out of other reasons to doubt. The absence of a second star seemed worrisome until Bam Adebayo blossomed into that role. The longer guys like Nunn, Herro and Robinson keep rolling, the harder it is to see the rug being pulled out from underneath them.

And let’s not forget, Winslow has barely broken a sweat with this group. If he can find a way to coexist with Butler—at this point, doesn’t Spoelstra deserve the benefit of the doubt?—this team’s potential climbs even higher.

Already, though, the outlook has changed. The Heat had a chance to be pretty good; they’ve made themselves great instead.

“We can’t keep surprising people,” Butler said after the latest win, the team’s third double-digit triumph in a row. “We’re for real. I don’t think anybody wants to play against us, and that’s the way we want to keep it.”

The Heat aren’t going away, regardless if the rest of the hoops world notices or not.