The Miami Heat have a path to defy expectations for a strong regular season by hitting five marks. Following an unceremonious first round exit in five games to the eventual champions Boston Celtics, the squad is arguably worse. 

 

The crew lost Caleb Martin to the Philadelphia 76ers and Delon Wright to the Milwaukee Bucks. The material replacements are Alec Burks, who played in 66 games and logged 18.4 minutes nightly last year; Kel’el Ware, the 15th pick in the draft plus Pelle Larsson, the 44th selection, and Keshad Johnson, an unchosen prospect; and Josh Christopher, a G-Leaguer in 2023-24.

 

If there’s any internal optimism, it comes from having Terry Rozier on deck, starting training camp, allowing for more cohesion. 

 

Let’s review five reachable benchmarks that could boost the club. 

 

Seventy games minimum for Jimmy Butler and more shots at close range

 

Butler has only logged at least 70 games twice in 13 seasons. That attendance rate isn’t enough, as the Heat depend on him to create most of the breakdowns on the court. Without him, the group only hits its fourth of sixth gear.

 

He must change the narrative, as Pat Riley talked about with Dwyane Wade years ago. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has one of his top regular seasons in black because he wants a new contract next summer. 

 

For that to happen, he must raise his shot attempts at 0-3 feet back up to 30%. He scored at a slightly above-average rate in that zone, which was a drop-off from the previous three seasons. In those campaigns, he averaged 70.9% accuracy in the restricted area. Notably, Butler’s potency at close range slightly decreased, but his trips to the line didn’t much- only by .75 tries. 

Getting the old Butler back would make the Heat “dangerous loomers” again.

Robinson builds on last year’s campaign 

 

Tyler Herro is the most probable candidate to start over Robinson. The former is a superior ball handler and inside-the-arc scorer. The latter is a dangerous deep threat and moves better without the ball. It’s unclear which direction coach Erik Spoelstra will lean, but if he starts Herro, Robinson must produce as he did last year. 

 

In 2023-24, he was a lights-out shooter, putting up 14.4 points on 47% accuracy, including 42.1% from deep, with three rebounds, three assists, and 1.4 turnovers with the initial group. As a reserve, he averaged 11.1 digits on 42.4% shooting, with 36.2% from 3-point range, plus two rebounds, 2.3 assists,and 1.4 turnovers per contest.

 

Providing higher than 40% of hoisted trays on over seven tries off the bench is the firepower the Heatles need from Robinson if Herro starts.  

 

Adebayo takes on a bigger role on offense 

 

Adebayo has been the second and 11th best paint scorer in the NBA over the past two seasons. This must continue while he becomes more of a focal point and adds range.

 

In the future, he needs to take more trips to the line. He’s averaged 5.6 feeebies per outing over the last five seasons. The main reason is likely that most of his attempts come in the interior non-restricted area because he has improved significantly as a jump shooter. Thirty-six and a half percent of his tries come from 3-10 feet as opposed to 24.5% at the cup. 

 

To get him to the line more, he would likely need to adjust his shot diet so he gets more rim rolls, slot cuts and baseline attacks. His goal should be taking at least eight freebies per contest plus two trifectas per game in 2024-25.

 

Ware provides good minutes 

 

The Heat’s new rookie, Kel’el Ware, shouldn’t be expected to play in every game, unless he is astonishingly the second coming of Alonzo Mourning. Keep in mind that when Nikola Jović’s back healed, the Heat were selective with their green prospect, shifting him to the G-League early in his second year then elevated his usage with the main group. 

 

Still, Ware will likely get around a dozen minutes per game when he’s used. Eventually, the plan is for him to work in different lineups, ones that include Adebayo. For now, when #13 sits, Ware cannot be someone the opponents hunt down—he needs to be a positive pick-and-roll defender. Additionally, he must be an impactful rebounder and mover without the ball to keep earning time. 

 

Continuous growth for Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jović

 

When next to the starters, Jaquez works well off-ball and can score double-digits without running sets run for him. He was also dependable, being ninth in fourth-quarter minutes (626.7) in 2023-24. Adebayo was sixth (643.2).

 

Next season, his goal should be continuing as the team’s primary bench player by upping his scoring. His post-game is productive and can be used in higher volume to take advantage of one-on-one matchups or to absorb the extra defender, then find the sniper. 

 

Furthermore, his deep shot needs tuning as only 32.2% of his tries were logged and over half came in the corners. NBA defenses always sag off that area to clog the paint. It’s essential that he buries those looks.  

 

Jović showed the Heat a lot in 38 starts last season. He is a strong and tall playmaker on the break and a release valve in the half-court. To follow up, he needs to tighten his handle and improve his finishing at the rim to become a dependable ball handler. 

 

Defensively, there’s a lot of work to do. Most of his time was spent covering forwards (49.1%) in 2023-24, giving up 51.9% of attempts. His length and frame are nice tools, but he must be more disruptive against dribble penetration.

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Nikola Jović lived through highs and lows during his sophomore year, but he’s made monumental strides since his first season. He got stronger by bulking up around 20 pounds, preventing opponents from overpowering him as often, and his 3-point percentage has nearly doubled.

 

He’s the likable young person who takes tips from players like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, laughs with them, and works diligently with assistant coach Malik Allen.

 

He logged about 20 minutes of action between Oct.30- Dec. 6 and played in seven G-League games, but now he is the power forward.

 

Jović’s smarts, speed, size and strength make him the club’s top decision-maker in transition. In fact, when he plays power forward, the squad scores 152.9 points per 100 transition plays, good enough for the 86th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. Furthermore, just 9.6% of his points came on the break in 2023-24, and 29% of his assists are in the open court.

 

But there are nights when coach Erik Spoelstra benches him early and others when he is unleashed. For example, in the Heat’s last game, he played 23 minutes, registering six points on 33% accuracy, with five rebounds and four assists; and in the outing before that, he tallied 23 marks on eight of 12 attempts, with eight boards and a dime in 39 minutes.

 

At age 20, he hasn’t evolved into a dependable half-court scorer, but that’s the next step. Currently, he’s mainly a catch-and-shoot option in this setting. The Heat need him to take extra shots at close range and finish more around the rim. He needs to tighten his handle, too, and he won’t be a dependable late-game option without it.

 

Down the line, he will likely turn into a high-caliber role player. A solid goal would be developing him into an athletic Boris Diaw- the French Magician was a creative passer and an average finisher at close range. The Heat should bring in former All-Star Goran Dragić (as our man at the network, Eternal Bast, suggested) to train with him and monitor his progress. Regarding elusive tricks and scoring, the Dragon is as fine a teacher as any.

 

A third-year leap relative to his improvements from his inaugural campaign until now would not only elevate the Heat, but extend Butler’s All-Star lifespan. On top of that, if Jović plays starter minutes next to Adebayo, the group doesn’t have a size issue in the back line. Jović is a decent rebounder, but the most used Heat lineup gave up an offensive rebound on 21.5% of opponents’ misses. This lineup included Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, Butler, Adebayo and Jović.

 

Adebayo bolsters résumé with second Olympic gold medal

 

The Heat’s center is on track for the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame following his second gold medal claim. He was the no.2 player for two Finals trips, has been arguably the league’s top defender for the last five years and is a top-shelf athlete. This span has included three All-Star selections plus five on the All-Defensive team.

 

Five more years producing at his rate should buy him a ticket into the honor’s club when he hangs his sneakers on a wire.

 

But who wants to depend on voter-determined accolades? Self-grabbed achievements instead of the elector awards (minus the MVP crown) would give his case extra credibility early. For example, leading the Playoffs in field goal percentage. He’d have to adjust his shot diet, but Jarrett Allen’s marks (67.6) in four games are reachable. Adebayo’s max in that category was 59.4% in 2021-22, but perhaps there will be expected Big Game Bam sightings as there were for Pat Riley’s former player, Big Game James Worthy.

 

His prime is starting and he has a final gear to get to on offense because he is taking more 3-point shots. If Adebayo becomes someone who isn’t just left open but eventually recklessly closed out to, he will have more chances to blow by rivals. Keep in mind, the captain was 11th (900) in paint points last season and second (1,098) the year before.

 

Following Team USA’s victorious run through the Olympics, Adebayo joins Dwyane Wade as the only player in Heat history with two Olympic medals. The former has two in gold and the latter one in gold and bronze.

 

Given his playstyle- an omnipresent defender with great leaping ability and a mid-range jumper- Team USA will probably target him for the 2028 Los Angeles campaign, too. And if Joel Embiid wasn’t pump-faking about competing for Cameroon, Adebayo’s experience and skills will be needed.

 

Last year’s Duncan Robinson (as a starter) is badly needed

 

Duncan Robinson is one of the best on the team at moving without the ball and was one of the league’s top snipers when starting. But he was a regular-shmegular as a reserve. As the former, he put up 14.4 points on 47% accuracy, including 42.1% from deep, with three rebounds, three assists and 1.4 turnovers. He logged 11.1 digits on 42.4% shooting, with 36.2% from 3-point range, plus two rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.4 turnovers per contest as the latter.

 

Additionally, when Robinson works with Rozier, Butler, Jović and Adebayo, the lineup feasts from the corners, making half its shots.

 

Playing more time with the group’s best players maximizes Robinson, who was one of the NBA’s most improved in 2023-24. He started scoring more inside the arc, upgraded his passing and elevated his defense.

 

He isn’t the on-ball threat Tyler Herro is, yet Robinson has gotten good at connecting with Adebayo when opponents trap the handoff.

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Steph Curry’s output and shooting tricks, plus Joel Embiid’s late surge, saved Team USA, preventing humiliation and a trip to the bronze medal game. Team USA has a date on Saturday with France to compete for the gold medal.

 

The first five minutes were an unyielding fireworks display, but the Serbs’ switching defense prevailed first, closing the quarter ahead by eight digits. Then they raced off to a 17-point advantage as six minutes remained at the half. 

 

The cause? Wack 3-point protection, Jokić‘s passing carved up doubles, and the Americans went soft on the glass.

 

Subsequently, the Americans countered with Curry Embiid and James’ deep shooting, slicing the deficit to 43-54 heading into intermission. 

 

At that point, Curry had 20 marks on 70% accuracy. The rest of Team USA logged eight of 21 shots. 

 

The Serbians followed up, converting seven of 16 attempts in the third quarter, finding success running the offense through Jokić on post ups and two-man actions. 

 

Midway through the frame, the Americans cut the score to 59-65 on Jrue Holiday’s 3-pointer set up by Curry. Yet, their counterparts retaliated with a 10-4 run to end the period. 

 

Team USA didn’t step up until the fourth quarter. There, Embiid scored seven straight points via jumpers in transition, plus at mid and close range in the half-court to cut the deficit to two. Next, James tied the match on a transition layup.

 

On the next possession, Jokić connected with Filip Petrušev, cutting on the baseline for a dunk as he was doubled by Kevin Durant and James in the middle.

 

Team USA closed the match with Curry flaring to the top of the key for a rattling trifecta plus scoring on the break. James finished a transition layup. And as Bogdan Bogdanović dribbled up court, Durant guarded him and forced a backcourt violation. 

 

Defensively, Team USA’s defense permitted zero of nine 3-pointers in the fourth quarter as its help defense cranked up. Serbia had made 15 of 30 triples through three quarters.

 

Team USA won 95-91, making 57.4% of field goals, including half from deep. Twenty-eight points were scored in the paint.

 

Additionally, LeBron James had 16 points on six of nine looks, with 12 rebounds and 10 dimes. Curry had 36 marks on 63% accuracy, with eight rebounds and two assists. And Embiid had 19 points on eight of 11 attempts, with four rebounds and two assists.

 

The players celebrated at mid-court and embraced for a postgame huddle led by James. 

 

James handled the on-court interview. When asked about starting the fourth quarter down 13 points, he said, “Gotta get it the hard way…Kudos to Serbia, but we came through. Chef Curry [had] a vintage Chef Curry game. Joel [Embiid] was big-time for us. We needed it.”

 

 

Kevin Durant and Bam Adebayo applied the pressure on offense. Jayson Tatum started over Joel Embiid and played an impactful 17 minutes after being a benchwarmer against Serbia. And Team USA strangled its rivals, conceding 42.1% of field goal attempts.

 

Early, LeBron James dictated matters, cutting up the baseline for a dunk, nailing a fallaway jumper through traffic, and scoring in the open court.

 

Defensively, Team USA gave the South Sudanese fits after allowing a seven-point burst. Devin Booker and Jrue Holiday slowed down the ball. Anthony Davis and Derrick White had denials in the backline, plus the latter stole the ball in the open court. Adebayo stripped the ball inside the key. And Anthony Edwards looted the rock in South Sudanese territory, resulting in a baseline floater for Adebayo. 

 

Through 10 minutes, the Americans led 26-14. The onslaught continued through the second frame as Tyrese Halliburton sprayed multiple trays, and Adebayo canned two-3-pointers and logged three dunks. They shot 54.3% from the field, including 43.8% from deep, with 40 digits coming from the reserves, and had 17 assists to five turnovers. Additionally, one trip for South Sudan to the line was authorized.

 

The South Sudanese converted 36.6% of attempts, 35.7% from long distance and totaled five bench points in the first half. 

 

Out of the break, South Sudan went on a 10-5 run to cut their deficit to 14 in the first few minutes, causing coach Steve Kerr to call a timeout and sub out five players. He inserted  White, Adebayo, Holiday, Edwards and Durant. Then White got screened from his blindside on the next play, putting him face first on the ground as Team USA gave up another tray.

 

Subsequently, the offense shot itself out of the mud with a new group. Edwards connected on a 3-pointer and buried three freebies. Adebayo slammed a lob through the middle on a pick-and-roll set. And White swished his third trifecta. 

 

The fourth quarter began with Team USA up 73-57.

 

Team USA suffered an 8-0 South Sudan run, cutting their advantage to nine marks partly because Anthony Davis was called for a suspect foul. But the Americans responded with a score by Stephen Curry, a catch-and-shoot bomb from Durant, an and-one layup by Booker, and a Davis rim roll to push the lead back to 19 marks.

 

The rest of the match was a formality. Team USA won 103-86, recording 52.9% of tries, 43.3% from 3-point range and 66 bench points.

 

Adebayo had 18 points on eight of 10 looks, with seven rebounds, one dime, one steal, two denials and two turnovers. Durant put up 14 marks on 40% shooting, making eight of nine freebies and registering two rebounds, three assists, three steals and a turnover. The other double-digit scorers were Edwards (13), James (12), Booker (10) and White (10).

 

For South Sudan, Nuni Omot logged 24 points on eight of 12 ventures, with two rebounds, two assists and two steals. Carlik Jones had 18 points on 42.1% accuracy, with three rebounds, seven assists, two steals and four turnovers. The other double-digit scorers were Bul Kuol (16) and Marial Shayok (12).

Adebayo handled the on-court interview. He said, “I’m not here to get 20 shots up. But when I’m open, shoot it.”

The United States is 2-0 in Group C.

 

Further comment:

 

The outrage regarding Tatum’s benching against Serbia was a non-story that was pushed as “disrespectful” by half-wits. James and Durant are the heavies on Team USA, and everyone else falls in line. Someone important will be left out each game, and against South Sudan, it was the former MVP, Embiid, for matchup reasons.

 

Assistant coach Erik Spoelstra must’ve been salivating as Adebayo drained two open threes. If that shot is a part of his arsenal, Miami’s center will take a significant leap next season (2024-25) on offense.

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The WNBA is at a recess until mid-August for the Olympics, but so far, through 62.5% of the season, some ladies have separated themselves from their peers. A former MVP is hellbent on seizing her crown. The rookie class is outstanding, with multiple All-Stars. And tons of people are watching- the All-Star Game on Saturday had its largest audience ever, which was a 305% increase from 2023, and the match between the Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky on June 23 was the most-viewed WNBA game in 23 years, per ESPN Press Room.

 

Let’s review the difference-makers in the league…

 

A’ja Wilson is having a season for the ages:

She’s the most dominant force in the league and cannot be stopped with double teams or physical action. Wilson is on pace to have the highest-scoring season in WNBA history, surpassing Jewell Loyd’s 2023 campaign with the Seattle Storm. And she’ll easily outdo Sylvia Fowles’ 2018 rebounding record (404) if she keeps the pace of snagging 12 nightly. Note: the WNBA season was 34 games in 2018 instead of 40 now. Even at a 34-match clip, Wilson is on track to claim the glass crown by a few boards. 

The Las Vegas Aces are a loaded outfit with four stars and last season’s Sixth Woman of the Year winner, Alysha Clark, but they struggled without the help of W’s top playmaker, Chelsea Gray. In that span, the reigning Finals MVP (Wilson) carried the group, but it was to a 6-6 record. It’s unclear how much the voters will punish her for that. Yet, she’s a massive favorite in the sportsbooks to win her third MVP trophy.  DraftKings and FanDuel have her odds at -3000. Caesars Sportsbook has her at -3500.  

On defense, Wilson is a shot blocker, which means she stays in the backline unless caught in a switch or covering an outside option. Still, she can hedge to contest in time, but if her teammates aren’t maneuvering past screens well then Wilson is compromised. 

Wilson is averaging 27.2 points on 52.2% accuracy for the season, including 39.5% from deep, with 12 boards, 2.9 blocks, 1.9 steals and 2.4 assists per game.  

Since Gray’s comeback, her first outing since Oct. 15, 2023 (Game 3 of the Finals), Wilson is putting up 26.4 points on 53% shooting, with 36.4% from 3-point range, 12.4 rebounds, 3.3 blocks, two steals and 2.2 assists. 

 

Not many guards better than Caitlin Clark: 

Caitlin Clark ended the rookie of the year race in July with her triple-double in a win against the New York Liberty and her 19-assist outing in a loss versus the Dallas Wings. Her helpings output is the new WNBA record, passing Courtney Vandersloot’s 18 against the Indiana Fever on Aug. 31, 2020. The only other players to register a triple-double this season are Alyssa Thomas (2) and Layshia Clarendon (1).

She is the most doubled perimeter player in the league, yet seven ballers ((with at least 20 games played) are logging a higher usage percentage (Sabrina Ionescu, Napheesa Collier, Jewell Loyd, Arike Ogunbowale, Chennedy Carter, A’ja Wilson and Kahleah Copper).

Clark is a superior playmaker to all of them because of her impact on her teammates and she’s the flashiest passer in the W, despite her high turnover count. To boot, the twice AP Player of the Year, is first in assists, first in double-doubles by a guard and third in minutes averaged. 

In transition, Clark will advance upcourt, producing herself or hitting a teammate in stride for an easy basket. Her most effective scoring method is attacking the rim, converting 63.2% of those attempts and that spot is second in her shot diet. Jumpers, pull-ups and step-back looks are taken with higher frequency, but supplied at an ineffectual rate, partly because of how close she is covered. Still, she’s tied for third in the league with Ogunbowale in 3-point baskets (71).

As her rookie campaign has progressed, she’s improved her assist/turnover numbers (2.27 through six games in July). That stat sits at a low 1.47 for the season, yet 99 of her 145 turnovers came from bad passes, per Basketball Reference.

So far, the latest number-one overall pick has been better than advertised, and her work is electrifying. Anyone who doubted her skills was worthy enough to make TEAM USA when the roster was released should review the fundamentals.

 

Chennedy Carter’s comeback is the best story this season:

The Atlanta Dream drafted Chennedy Carter fourth overall in 2020, but she didn’t last with the club because of conduct issues. Her next stop in Los Angeles ended prematurely for the same reason and she was out of the league in 2023. But this year, Carter is back and she’s been one of the best in the business and is at the top of her squad. 

Coach Teresa Weatherspoon initially had her coming off the bench for the first 12 games and then wised up because no one on the team breaks down a defender like her. The deep shot isn’t one of her weapons, but she supplies 72% of attempts in the restricted area, taking 29.8% of tries from that zone. Also of note: Carter hasn’t been a reserve since June 14, and she’s still second in bench points scored (155), trailing Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (185).

As a starter (12 games), Carter averages an insufficient 30.3 minutes per game. The former Aggie needs more time because she is likely the fastest player in the league with the ball, allowing her to create separation against her matchup without a screen. Her burst also establishes a lethal pick-and-roll ball handler option.

Her top game of the year was a winning effort on July 16 in Las Vegas against the Aces. Carter was the best guard in a game that featured Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray. She scored on backdoor cuts, mid range jumpers, drivebys and fastbreak opportunities.

Not all young people are ready to be professionals when they land a top gig because they are late bloomers, too. Carter is capitalizing on her chance at redemption and becoming the player she was destined to be.

 

Marina Mabrey on the Connecticut Sun: 

Marina Mabrey asking out of Chicago is an organizational failure because the team was more talented than its record indicated.

Before the exchange that brought Marina Mabrey to the Connecticut Sun for Rachel Banham, Moriah Jefferson, and two first-round picks, the squad had a puncher’s chance to come out of the East. The New York Liberty is still favored, but the Sun is a more formidable rival with extra firepower.

Mabrey’s shooting splits aren’t stellar, as she is more of a wildcard sniper, but she catches lots of attention and sets up her teammates well. A third of her made triples were unassisted, and she led the Sky in assists before the trade, too. 

For Connecticut, the scoring burden is loosened off DeWanna Bonner, Brionna Jones and DiJonai Carrington’s shoulders because of Mabrey’s gravity plus scoring competence. Alyssa Thomas doesn’t have to work as hard to get them involved, which should conserve some of her energy for the fourth quarter as well.

The Sun made the right move to maximize its championship window by bringing in a player not far from All-Star caliber. She might blossom into one playing on a squad as deep and well-coached as Connecticut’s.

 

Further comments:

Angel Reese is a winning player and an All-Star rookie. She’s a high-level defender, gets others open with screens, limits opponents’ possessions and buys more for her team by pounding the glass. She’ll ascend into the league’s first echelon when she polishes her scoring near the rim and connects on open jumpers regularly. 

Don’t underestimate the Minnesota Lynx. The recent Commissioner’s Cup champs are the top defense and passing unit in the WNBA but are weak on the glass. 

It’s a lost season for the Wings as its record sits at 6-19. Satou Sabally’s shoulder injury has decimated the defense and the offense lacks significant help. Wings games this season are about watching Ogunbowale, who leads the WNBA in minutes (38.4,  field goal attempts (20.1) and steals (2.7), try to drag her team to the finish line. 

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