Dolphins should consider these numbers before signing Tua long term

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So Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier wants to sign quarterback Tua Tagovailoa long term, does he?

Well… Grier better take a look at some of these numbers that I pulled, before he commits to Tua any longer than his 5th-year option. 

We all know by now that Tua is a fantastic NFL quarterback who can put up some impressive Top-5 numbers during the regular season…

 

— 1st in pass yards

— 5th in pass touchdowns

— 5th in QB rating 101.1

— 5th in accuracy 69.3

 

And to add on top of that… Tua played in all 17 games in 2023 – a feat he hasn’t reached since entering the NFL. Previous to that, he never completed a full season due to injury.

But is he a Top-5 talent? That’s a clear “no”.

Is he an assassin? Still waiting on that.

How does he perform against winning teams and high-profile quarterbacks? Dolphins Nation is disappointed and left wanting after losses to the Eagles, Ravens, and being swept by the Chiefs and the division rival Bills. Not to mention that the Miami Dolphins scoring dropped from putting 30 points on the Jets in mid-December to 22 versus the Cowboys, to 19 versus the Ravens, to 14 versus the Bills, to 7 versus the Chiefs on Wildcard Weekend. 

 

 

Is it all Tua’s fault? No. 

Player injuries, coaching, and play-calling play a factor as well.

But he and the offense have had multiple chances to respond in these final 3 losses, and they’ve failed.


And Tua is the franchise quarterback for now …  and if Grier has his way… for the foreseeable future. 

But here are some areas of concern the Dolphins front office needs to consider, before locking up Tua Tagovailoa to a longterm deal: 

 

Before and after Halftime

Tua’s overall passer rating during the first half of games is better than the second half. And his passer rating goes down as each quarter of the game ends. Starting from 117.3 in the first quarter, and dropping to 109.2 in the second, 92.3 in the third, and 75.9 in the fourth. 

In the first half of games, Tua has 20 touchdowns to 6 interceptions for a passer rating of 112.2.

In the second half, 9 touchdowns to 8 interceptions for a passer rating of 85.5 respectively.

 

Tua did not play well in the 4th quarter

In the 4th quarter of 2023 regular season games, Tua has 4 touchdowns which is tied for 7th-most. But the top 7 spots in that respective category, involve 25 quarterbacks.

Tua is also tied for 5th-most interceptions with 3, and an overall passer rating of 75.9 in the 4th quarter.



Tua did not perform well in primetime

In late games this season, Tua has a win-loss record of 1-3. With a touchdown-interception ratio of 3-4, and a passer rating of 84.0.

 

December & January


During 2023 regular season December and January games — his total win/loss record is 3-3 with a TD-INT ratio of 7-4 for total average passer rating of 82.0.  

During Wildcard weekend in Arrowhead, he passed for 199 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. With a 51.3% completion, and 63.9 passer rating.

 

Tua was not good under pressure

Pro football focus ranks him 30th versus overall pressure with a grade of 54.4. He is tied with Carson Wentz. 

 

Dolphins training camp

 

Leading, Tied, Trailing

When leading, Tua’s completion percentage is 70.18%, 9 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and 98.2 rating. While being sacked 9 times.

When tied, 69.16%, 7 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 114.0 rating, while being sacked 5 times.

When trailing, 68.51%, 13 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 97.8 rating, while being sacked 15 times. 

 

Playoff record

Tua’s playoff record is 0-1. However, he could’ve been to the playoffs twice, if he would’ve not had concussion issues towards the end of 2022. If he played in the 2022 Wildcard Round in Buffalo that season, at best his playoff record would be 1-1. At worst, 0-2. 

But the Dolphins still lost 4 games in a row before Tua was ruled out for the rest of that season. During that span, Tua played poorly in 3 out of his last 4 games. 

Just like he didn’t play well or well-enough during the final stretch of this 2023 season or against the Chiefs in Arrowhead. 

So do the Miami Dolphins want to sign a proven clutch quarterback or just a high-level regular season quarterback who will take you to the dance, but leave you in playoff purgatory? 

The Cowboys signed Dak Prescott to big money a couple years ago. His playoff record is now 2-5.

The Vikings keep re-investing into Kirk Cousins. His playoff record is 1-4.

Tua can very-well be on his way to becoming part of this category.

Or perhaps… He’s already there. 

 

******

For more Miami Dolphins content, check out the Three Yards Per Carry and AllDolphins podcasts.

 

Tua Tagovailoa says he doesn't feel pressure going into next season on the final year of his contract.

Pressure Point: Dolphins’ collapse raises questions about future with Tagovailoa

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A season that showed potential to be something special for the Miami Dolphins ended the same place as every other one this century.

On the trash heap.

Surprisingly it was Mike McDaniel’s highly acclaimed offense and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa that led the way to the dumpster, culminating in a noncompetitive 26-7 wild-card loss at frigid Kansas City on Saturday night.

Would have been difficult to imagine when the Dolphins were dropping 70 points on the Broncos in the third week of the season and Tagovailoa was on his way to leading the NFL in passing yards.

Rarely have grandiose — even historic — stats added up to so little. Because although Tua amassed Marino-like passing numbers and earned his first Pro Bowl selection, the true measure of his season was in how he and the offense came up short against teams that reached the playoffs.

The Dolphins went 1-6 in games against the Bills (twice), Eagles, Chiefs (twice) and Ravens. In those games they scored 20, 17, 14, 22, 19, 14 and 7 points.

Tua shrunk in biggest games

Notably, in the three season-ending losses Tagovailoa had his worst passer ratings of the season: 71.9 against the Ravens, 62.7 against the Bills and 63.9 against the Chiefs. He had four touchdown passes and five interceptions in that stretch.

In each of those games his performance paled in comparison to the opposing quarterback — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

If this comes across as a harsh assessment, consider that a big topic of the Dolphins’ offseason will be if or when they will pursue a long-term contract extension with their quarterback. Tua is due to make $23.1 million in 2024, the final season of his rookie contract.

The going rate for top quarterbacks these days is north of $50 million a year.

The Dolphins may wait until after next season to decide whether to offer Tua a new contract. Whenever that may occur, his agent can point to an impressive array of stats in building a case that he belongs in that category.

To be sure, Tua accomplished a lot this season and provided some dazzling moments, particularly in spectacular connections with Tyreek Hill. He finished with a league-leading 4,634 yards, 29 touchdown passes and a passer rating of 101.1.

Significantly, for the first time in his career he started every game and didn’t miss any time due to injury. He led Miami to an 11-7 record and its second consecutive playoff appearance.

Fins still winless in playoffs since 2000

But the season cannot be considered a success — and this burden ultimately rests with the head coach — after the Dolphins squandered a three-game lead in the AFC East in the final five weeks and ended with another one-sided loss on the road in the first round up the playoffs.

The Dolphins are now 0-6 since their last playoff win in 2000 while being outscored 164-62. Even the 2000 team got rolled the next week 27-0 by the Raiders. The only game that was even close was the 34-31 loss last year at Buffalo.

It is in that context that the disappointment of this season is magnified: nearly a quarter century without a single win in the playoffs. The cast of players, coaches and decision makers keeps changing, yet the path always leads back to the same crossroad to nowhere.

The latest roster overhaul begun in 2019 was going to finally fix that. The Dolphins were going to find their franchise quarterback, by golly, and a coach to break the chain of lost seasons.

That quest seemed to be coming together in the first 12 games of this season with Tua leading McDaniel’s innovative offense that was the talk of the league. But production diminished late in the season, particularly against the better teams.

Will Miami pursue extension for Tagovailoa?

Ultimately, that 70-20 trouncing of the Broncos and feel-good routs of other middling teams served only as build up to a bigger letdown.

“We were definitely expecting us to be a really good team this year. We definitely weren’t expecting a first-round exit,” Tyreek Hill said after the season-ending loss to the Chiefs.

Now the franchise reverts to another juncture of uncertainty about the future and troubling questions arise entering the offseason. Is Tagovailoa the right quarterback to invest in long term? Is McDaniel the coach to lead the way out of the wilderness?

Not that either is headed out the door. But it is understandable that patience is thin. The NFL is all about results right now. That has become expected of young quarterbacks more than ever in recent years.

Mahomes rocketed to immediate stardom. C.J. Stroud made an immediate impact for the Texans as a rookie this season and already has a resounding playoff win under his belt.

At his best, Tagovailoa is a remarkably accurate passer. He remained healthy all season and improved his record as a starter to 32-19. But his struggles against the better teams is troubling. His record in December and January games is 10-11.

In mulling whether to make a potential $250 million investment in Tua, the Dolphins must assess whether he is a quarterback who can just get them to the playoffs or can he elevate his game to win in the postseason.

Re-signing Wilkins should be top priority for Dolphins

The aftermath of a season that promised much more than it ultimately delivered will bring other immediate challenges on personnel matters. Most important, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, coming off a monster season, can become an unrestricted free agent.

On the bright side, Wilkins said after Saturday’s loss that he would like to stay with the Dolphins. It remains to be seen where the money and ambition leads.

Hill said: “Unfortunately, every locker room is going to be different every year, salary cap and guys wanting to get paid and going other places. I feel in my heart that if this team were to come back together this is the right group of people to win. We got everything what it takes. You can see that the defense came along, and as an offense, we have to be able to put drives together and help those guys out.

“We just can’t be a bunch of front-runners. Next year I feel like we’ll learn from it.”

For the Dolphins, hope always points to next year.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Jaylen celebrates after scoring the clinching touchdown for the Miami Dolphins in the win against the New Orleans Saints.

For the Dolphins…. you’re saying there’s a chance?

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With the Miami Dolphins now 4.5 point underdogs in one of the soon-to-be coldest weather games in NFL History, their chances of coming out of Kansas City still alive in the Wildcard Round are not looking good.

It’s true, on the surface, the trusted stock in the Miami Dolphins is down right now after losing the division crown to the rival Buffalo Bills who seem to always have their number.

Mike McDaniel looks like a coach that can’t make halftime adjustments.

Tua Tagovailoa looks like a quarterback who can’t win a big game.

And Tyreek Hill seems to get a case of the dropsies whenever these big games arrive.

On defense, the Dolphins are banged up entering this game.

They will be without their high-profile cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) which will leave Eli Apple on the opposite side of star Jalen Ramsey. Kader Kohou will likely be in the slot.

The pass rushing unit has taken a huge hit this year. LB Jaelan Phillips tore his Achilles versus the Jets, LB Bradley Chubb suffered a torn ACL on New Year’s Eve, and LB Andrew Van Ginkle hurt his foot
in the team’s regular season finale. LB Jerome Baker, who is an adequate blitzed, hurt his wrist and will require surgery. None will be available to chase down Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead Stadium.

 

*******

But the Dolphins have a secret weapon on defense for this game — experience.

And not just any type of experience.

Experience from 3 longtime veterans who have totaled 243 sacks collectively in their careers. And although they are relatively new to the team, Melvin Ingram, Justin Houston, and Bruce Irvin all have experience chasing after Patrick Mahomes.

Ingram did it when he was a member of the Chargers.

Justin Houston sacked Mahomes as a member of the Colts.

And Bruce Irvin claims he sacked Mahomes twice as a member of the Raiders, but he may have mistakenly meant Alex Smith.

Houston and Irvin who both joined the team this week say they’ve played in similar defensive systems like defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s system, so they believe they can get acclimated quickly.
Houston still sees himself as a pass rusher, and Irvin says he moves faster than his 36-year age. The Dolphins are hoping all 3 veterans have enough left in the tank, and can combine their football knowledge to make a difference not just for this game, but for the rest of the postseason should the team win on Saturday.

But despite the injuries, the Miami Dolphins still have a chance in this game, but that all depends on if they can fix what has ailed them in the final two weeks of the regular season.

The defense has been competitive, and they showed it last week when they only allowed a total of two touchdowns to the Bills.

The Chiefs receiving corps doesn’t offer much of a threat, but Mahomes’ improvising and Andy Reid’s ability to whip out the tricks during this time of the year does. Look for misdirection and the
occasional trick play. Also, the Dolphins secondary has been exposed on drag plays across the field when they played the Ravens, and the Chiefs offense is more horizontal this year than vertical, so look for
Reid to utilize some of those play calls when he has good matchups. I’d expect tight end Travis Kelce to feast off of these catches with Miami’s linebacking unit and safeties banged up.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins front-7 needs to continue their ferocity keep Chiefs running back Isaiah Pacheco, from violently running downfield. The Fins defense has suffered a lot of injuries, but that’s actually one aspect that doesn’t concern me too much. Defensive tackles Christian Wilkins, Zach Seiler, and run-stuffing linebacker David Long Jr. are still around to lead the charge.

What McDaniel cannot do is get away from the run too early before the Chiefs learn to stop it.

Tua Tagovailoa, with Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, had an uncharacteristically poor performance in the loss against San Francisco.

After grinding down the clock with the run on their final drive and kicking their way to victory over the Cowboys on Christmas Eve, the Dolphins picked up where they left off in Week 18 versus the Bills.
The Fins ran the ball for over 100 yards in the first half, but went away from it in the 2nd half when the Bills decided to give McDaniel looks that were intended to stuff the run. However, McDaniel ditched
the run game before the Bills ever actually proved that they could stop it. This got the Dolphins offense into trouble and led to a bunch of short drives and punts, which allowed the Bills to get back into
the game and take the lead. McDaniel needs to stick with the run game until the Chiefs prove they can stop it.

The Dolphins are better at running the ball than the Chiefs are defending it. So using running backs De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson Jr. is imperative considering the elements. If Raheem Mostert, who is
listed as questionable and has over 20 touchdowns for the season can play in this game, that will be bode very well for this offense. All of these backs can catch, and McDaniel and Tua need to remember that when they have these speedsters mismatched on Kansas City’s talented linebackers.

The offensive line has been riddled with injuries, but still playing quite well when it comes to the run blocking and giving quarterback Tua a pocket. Tua continues to avoid the sacks while getting the ball
out quickly, but still must prove he can go off script and make something happen when the team needs it in crunch time. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo has playcalled in a lot of big-time games throughout his career, and this game will be no different. Knowing that Tua isn’t the best escape-artist, I’d expected Spagnulo to blitz quite often while hoping to get the Dolphins offense in as many 3rd & long situations as possible. Considering the freezing temperatures, and the hardening of the football, throwing it deep probably isn’t the best option for Miami offense or when facing the Chiefs’  secondary. I would like to see more crossers and drag routes to see if Spangulo’s cornerbacks can keep up versus Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle’s presumed return.

What the Dolphins cannot allow is a big return or some kind of foul up on Special Teams.

Coming out of halftime versus the Ravens, the Dolphins allowed a kickoff return for a big return — demoralizing.

Against the Bills, after the defense got a stop — Dolphins special teams unit allowed a punt return for a touchdown to allow the Bills to tie the game 14-14. The Dolphins kickoff and punt coverage unit cannot allow short fields or easy scores to the Chiefs in a game with extreme elements where field position could be vital for victory.

 

 

******

Key to Victory: Take the lead and Pull Away

In Arrowhead Stadium, there has been too much Mahomes Magic at this time of year. This Chiefs team is beatable, but to avoid any miraculous late-game magic or dagger killing drives by Patrick
Mahomes, the Dolphins have to get off with fast start (like they usually do) and pull away. None of the cute Mike McDaniel attempting to go for it on 4th-down early in the game despite being in field goal
position — No. Take the easy points, and when you go down the field again, tack on some more points. Because this team has shown time and time again that they are a first half team in games versus playoff contenders, and they shown to little to prove that said problem is fixed.

You want to beat Mahomes?

Play smart, stop him early, tack on multiple scores, and keep the lead out of reach of his magic and Andy Reid’s creative play calling.

Maybe it’s time to realize Tua isn’t enough

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The Miami Dolphins lost Sunday Night to the Buffalo Bills 21-14, crushing their hopes to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008.

And they learned something…

They learned that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may not be enough to go all the way this season.

He may not be enough to go all the way in ANY season.

The team saw it, the fans saw it, I saw it.

 

 

*****

The Miami Dolphins lead the Bills at halftime, up 14-7, and what did we see in the 2nd half?

The Bills defense dominating, and Josh Allen finishing.

That’s when I came to ask myself: when does Tua Tagovailoa finish games for the Miami Dolphins? Especially, against teams headed for the playoffs. And especially versus teams with highly athletic
quarterbacks who he will likely face in the postseason when the games matter.

Did Tua win in Buffalo earlier in the season during the Miami Dolphins first meeting against the division rival Bills?

Nope.

Did Tua perform well in Germany when the team faced the Kansas City Chiefs and went down 21-0 by the end of the first half, and had the ball literally slip out of his hands on his final 2 plays of the game?

Nope.

Sunday Night Football in Philly, despite the defense tying the score 17-17 in the second half, the offense didn’t show up that entire half, and Tua melted once the 4th quarter started.

Facing a 4-8 Tennessee Titans team on MNF at home, and playing a rookie quarterback, the Titans gift wrap a win by giving the Dolphins a 14-point lead in the bottom 5 minutes of the game. How does Tua and the offense respond? Three and out; and a 6 play, 16 yard drive ending with a turnover on downs.

The Ravens game on New Years Eve? I couldn’t wait for 2023 to end after that 56-19 blowout.

And yes, Tua beat Dak Prescott and the Cowboys at Hard Rock Stadium on Christmas Eve. But you know what? That’s the Cowboys, they don’t play good on the road. And last time i checked, Tua and the Miami offense was responsible for only 1 touchdown in that game.

And last night on SNF, for the division crown, I saw a 2nd half filled with 3 and outs, 4 punts, and an interception.

Tua couldn’t find a way to put the team on his back at any point in the 2nd half, despite getting chance after chance by the defense. After Buffalo took a 21-14 lead, Tua had the opportunity on 2
different drives to make a statement. The results were a 3 and out, and a 4 play, 23-yard drive ending in an interception.

You know who I did see put the team on his back?

Josh Allen.

And it’s not to say Allen had a great game; he didn’t. Allen was responsible for turning over the ball 3 times. But he cleaned up his first half mistakes, and put the cape on in the 2nd half. Allen converted when the Bills backs where against the wall on late downs. Allen made killer throws. Allen took off with his legs. Allen broke tackles and made people miss. Allen converted on the upsy-daisy in
short yardage situations on long drives to kill the clock and keep the ball out of the Dolphins hands.

Allen did things that Tua just can’t do.

Allen is an assassin, and he has those special physical qualities which allow him to make unreal plays when the game is on the line.

So does Jalen Hurts when he’s doing the Brotherly Shove, Lamar Jackson when he’s pulling so much attention that it’s leaving receivers open, Patrick Mahomes in clutch time….

Tua’s special quality is his accuracy.

But those quarterbacks are accurate too…

They also have everything else.

My point is: if Tua can’t beat these quarterbacks during the regular season when the stakes are low, how is he expected to do that in the postseason when it’s win or go-home?

 

******

Mike Hernandez is a new contributor to Five Reasons Sports Network. You can find him at @MadmanMikeDD

Pressure Point: Heat’s on Tua, McDaniel as Dolphins face chilly prospects in playoffs

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So, what’s the mood, Miami Dolphins fans, excited about the playoffs?

Your team finished the regular season 11-6, its most wins in 15 years. It’s headed to the postseason in back-to-back seasons for the first time in more than two decades.

And yet, anger and dejection is palpable throughout South Florida after watching a bevy of annoying Buffalo fans celebrate their Bills snatching the AFC East title on the Dolphins’ home field on the final night of the season. Just the latest Dolphins debacle played out before a national audience.

Ya got us again, Dolphins.

No team is as adept at luring its fans into skydiving without a parachute as the Dolphins.

They outdid themselves this time. Redefining epic collapse, the Fins squandered a three-game lead in the division over the final five games. Instead of opening the playoffs at home, they must travel to face the defending champion Chiefs in freezing Kansas City.

Tagovailoa disappears in second half

At the most important moment of season that brought so much acclaim to Tua Tagovailoa and the offense, it was Tagovailoa and the offense that failed miserably in the second half of the 21-14 loss to the Bills.

That and an inexplicable lapse on special teams in allowing a 95-yard punt return by Deonte Harty.

Vic Fangio’s defense did its part in holding Josh Allen and the Bills to two touchdowns and forcing three turnovers (two interceptions and a brilliant strip-sack by Christian Wilkins) plus an inspiring stop at the goal line by Jerome Baker to end the first half.

The defense clearly wore down in the fourth quarter — losing two more edge players from its depleted corps of outside linebackers (Andrew Van Ginkel and Cameron Goode) was a factor. But the second-half undoing was squarely on Mike McDaniel’s highfalutin offense.

The Dolphins totaled just 47 yards of total offense in the second half while holding the ball for only seven minutes. In five possessions after the half, they punted four times (three were three-and-outs). The final indignity saw Tagovailoa overthrowing seldom-used Chase Claypool for his second interception of the game.

“We never felt like they stopped us. That’s the tough part about tonight,” veteran left tackle Terron Armstead said. “We had some missed opportunities. I, myself, had a terrible false start and I feel like I screwed the team. We lost momentum after that. It just kind of sucked the energy – not necessarily sucked the energy – but just a very bad penalty to take that five-yard loss. So man, I completely screwed the team right there, and it was hard for us to get back on track after that. I take full accountability for that.”

McDaniel’s offense struggles against top teams

There was plenty of accountability to be directed at the head coach and playmakers as well.

After rushing for 101 yards in the first half while building a 14-7 lead, Miami ran the ball only three times in the second half.

Tua, who led back-to-back 75-yard touchdown drives in the second quarter, was out of sync after the intermission. Even Tyreek Hill, who celebrated his TD catch with a gymnastics routine worthy of Simone Biles, had a couple of drops.

McDaniel said: “It seemed like take a turn each drive. We weren’t able to really get the momentum of the drive going, which is what happens when myself as a play caller decides to pass, anticipating that we have an advantageous look. I think at this point in the season you have to trust a lot of things and it didn’t work out. It goes really to the whole group because we were running the ball well. They changed their box count which wasn’t like they changed defenses. They just called more eight-man front and you have to be able to adjust with the defense and make plays in all phases, and we were unable to do that tonight.”

For all the praise directed toward McDaniel as an offensive innovator, he is starting to resemble Adam Gase 2.0.

A lot of the gaudy stats generated by the Dolphins’ league-leading offense have the luster of fool’s gold. When needed most, McDaniel’s offense hasn’t delivered.

In six games against teams going to the playoffs, the Dolphins scored 20, 17, 14, 22, 19 and 14 points. They won only one of those games, the 22-20 comeback against the Cowboys.

Tagovailoa outplayed by Jackson, Allen

Leading the 64-yard drive to the winning field goal in the final 3 ½ minutes against Dallas was Tagovailoa’s finest moment. In the two losses since then — 56-19 disaster at Baltimore and Sunday against the Bills — the Dolphins’ supposed franchise quarterback was thoroughly outplayed and overshadowed by the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Buffalo’s Allen.

Tua’s passer rating against the Bills was 62.7, his worst of the season. Second worst was 71.9 at Baltimore.

Granted, Allen is prone to mistakes. He threw two interceptions and lost a fumble Sunday. But in the fourth quarter he took over the game and enforced his will. Facing third and 13 on a clock-killing drive, Allen rumbled through Dolphins defenders for 15 yards.

While McDaniel is 20-15 as Dolphins coach, he’s 3-11 against teams that have made the playoffs the past two seasons.

Make no mistake, McDaniel and Tagovailoa aren’t going away next season. But the reckoning Dolphins ownership and management must contemplate is where can this franchise go with them? And what are the options for alternatives?

Long shot to break drought in playoffs

Because a season that appeared headed for a breakthrough is now back to a well worn crossroad to nowhere, facing a likely one-and-done in the playoffs. There have been four of those (including last year at Buffalo) since the wild-card win in overtime over the Colts in 2000.

According to CBS Sports HQ Research, the Bills are the fourth team in NFL history to win a division after being down three-plus games with five or fewer games to play. (1973 Bengals, 2008 Chargers, 2022 Jaguars). After floundering at 6-6 and firing their offensive coordinator, they now take the momentum of five consecutive wins into opening the playoffs at home as the second seed in the AFC.

For Miami, it’s off to playoff purgatory at Kansas City where temperatures for Saturday night are forecast to drop as low as minus-2 degrees.

“We can’t dwell on what has happened,” Armstead said. “We’re the six seed. We got to go play Kansas City, let’s go. Let’s go do it. Let’s make it happen. We go up there and get a big win against the defending champs, on to the next.”

Who knows, the NFL is full of surprises. Some may view the Chiefs as less formidable right now than the Bills, who would have returned to Miami Gardens if the Dolphins had prevailed.

But seriously, the prospects of Tua leading an upset in frigid and foreboding Arrowhead Stadium? I’m not putting cash on it at the Hard Rock Sportsbook.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins had a rough day in rout at Baltimore.

Pressure Point: Dolphins must regroup from painful loss to battle Bills for AFC East title

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A crappy New Year’s Eve in Baltimore left the Miami Dolphins staggering with a throbbing hangover.

The vision of the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC was swept away in a 56-19 embarrassment against the runaway Ravens.

Granted, all was not lost for Miami. The division title is still there for the taking with a season-ending showdown looming against the Buffalo Bills. The winner will claim the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

But the effects of this Dolphins debacle won’t wash away with a couple of aspirin. An already concerning injury situation worsened with two key defensive players leaving on a cart: cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb.

Chubb, having a Pro Bowl-worthy season, appeared to suffer a significant knee injury while attempting to make a tackle in the fourth quarter.

In addition, Tua Tagovailoa was briefly in the medical tent after he dinged his left shoulder while sliding on a fourth-down scramble in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins should have been punting in what was by then a lost cause.

Home field at stake vs. Bills

Fitting that it will come down to a must-win against the Bills for Miami to claim its first AFC East title since 2008. The Dolphins will have the advantage of home field, where they have been nearly unbeatable with Tagovailoa.

But will they have a healthy Tagovailoa? At the podium afterward he said his shoulder was sore.

The quarterback’s shoulder and availability will be the focus of the week.

As for the sting of the defeat, Tagovailoa said, “We’re right where we need to be as a team, regardless of the outcome of today, and we’ll be better for it. Hopefully we get to see these guys again.”

The road to the Super Bowl will go through Baltimore after the Ravens clinched their second No. 1 seed in franchise history.

The Dolphins secured a place in the playoffs with last week’s win over Dallas. They’ll be vying with the Bills to host a first-round game. Otherwise Miami will draw an unenviable road assignment.

Jackson, Ravens worthy No. 1 in AFC

While the top seed in the conference was at stake Sunday, it never felt actually within reach for Miami despite a picture-perfect opening touchdown drive and a 10-7 lead after the first quarter. Because the Dolphins defense, which has played so well for most of the season, had no answer to Lamar Jackson and his receivers.

A loss at Baltimore wasn’t surprising. But the gulf between the teams was, well, staggering.

Want to know what a No. 1 seed looks like? The Ravens provided the answer in dominating and demoralizing the Dolphins in every aspect of this runaway.

And if you want to know what an MVP candidate looks like, Jackson is the model.

The Ravens’ multi-talented QB pitched a perfect game with five touchdowns, 321 yards and a 158.3 passer rating. It was his third career game with a perfect passer rating, tying the NFL record.

Tagovailoa started well but couldn’t keep up, finishing 22 of 38 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions.

Dolphins’ fast start not enough

The day began promising for Miami with a 75-yard drive in eight plays capped by an 8-yard pass from Tagovailoa to Cedric Wilson Jr. in tight coverage.

After The Ravens answered with an 85-yard scoring drive, the Dolphins had another go-ahead touchdown in reach, but Tyreek Hill inexplicably dropped it in the end zone.

It didn’t help that star cornerback Howard left early with a foot injury. Not that Howard could have done much to slow the Ravens, who seemed to have a step or 10 on Miami defenders all day.
The Ravens scored touchdowns on five of their first six drives (not counting one play at the end of the half).

A long kickoff return to open the second half and a short touchdown drive pushed Baltimore’s advantage to 35-13, and it only became more painful from there.

When the Dolphins created a glimmer of hope with a fumble recovery in the third quarter, Tagovailoa overthrew Hill for an interception on the next play.

But most painful was seeing Chubb carted off with what had the look of a season-ender.

As to whether Chubb and Tua should have still been in the one-sided game at the time they were hurt, coach Mike McDaniel said, “I would like to have a time machine for sure.”

Both teams came into the game suffering the effects of December in the NFL.

Dolphins missing key players

The Dolphins’ offense was missing 1,000-yard rusher Raheem Mostert and 1,000-yard receiver Jaylen Waddle, as well as starting right guard Robert Hunt.

The Ravens, with the league’s No. 1 defense, were coming off a short week after their Monday night win at San Francisco. They were missing safety Kyle Hamilton, one of the best in the biz, as well as cornerback Brandon Stephens. Ravens guard Kevin Zeitler was also out.

The Dolphins were fortunate to have their starting secondary back together with safety Jevon Holland active for the first time since injuring both knees Nov. 24 against the Jets. Cornerbacks Howard and Jalen Ramsey, both listed as questionable late in the week, were also on the field. But Howard didn’t make it through the first quarter.

This time of year, everyone playing is dealing with ailments. So both teams could point to impaired rosters.

As it turned out, Baltimore was the king of pain, dishing out a thorough beating.

The question will be whether the Dolphins can shake off the hangover and meet the challenge of their division nemesis.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Jason Sanders kicked five field goals for the Dolphins in the win over the Cowboys.

Pressure Point: Dolphins give S. Florida a Merry Christmas; New Year brings more challenges

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How special was the Miami Dolphins’ last-second win on a walk-off field by Jason Sanders against the Dallas Cowboys?

The last time the Dolphins gave their fans such a Christmas gift was the “Mare Christmas” win of 2000 — dubbed by my former colleague Harvey Fialkov — on Dec. 24, 2000 when Olindo Mare kicked a field goal into the wind with 9 seconds left for a 27-24 win against the Patriots at Foxboro to clinch the AFC East title.

A week later the Dolphins defeated the Indianapolis Colts in a wild-card playoff matchup. They haven’t won a playoff game in four tries since then. They have only one AFC East title since, in 2008.

Sunday, it was again a kicker giving Dolfans a playoff present with a last-second kick in a 22-20 win. It was Sanders’ fifth field goal of the day in which he became the first Dolphin to kick three longer than 50 yards in a game.

That was just a footnote to the bigger picture. This win changed so much for the Dolphins and their quaterback, Tua Tagovailoa.

Finally, the national narrative of the Dolphins beating up on also-rans and getting run over by playoff-caliber teams vanished. Poof!

The Dolphins and Cowboys both came into Sunday 10-4 and leading their divisions. Now there can be no more talk about the AFC East-leading Dolphins having no wins over a team with a winning record.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel had a long, rambling answer about what this win meant to the team. The bottom line was: “This team was fully confident and knew it would take all 60 minutes. So it’s a cool one to be a part of. I think a lot of the guys are happy because their Christmas isn’t ruined.”

Dolphins save Christmas

But it was much more than that.

Very important that Tagovailoa, who has been constantly denigrated despite his successes, led the Dolphins on the 12-play, 64-yard drive to set up Sanders’ winning kick over the final 3:27.

It was a signature moment that Tua very much needed, especially after Miami’s previous possession went three-and-out and was followed by a 17-play touchdown drive by the Cowboys which gave Dallas its only lead of the game.

When safety DeShon Elliott was called for pass interference in the end zone on fourth down to give Dallas another set of downs at the Miami 1, the Fox telecast showed a very young Dolphins fan on the brink of despair about the call. Thousands of much older fans who have suffered with this team for decades were feeling the exact same emotions at that moment.

So many Dolphins dreams have died in December. There was a collective feeling it was about to happen again.

Then came Santa Tagovailoa driven by a battered but game offensive line and his band of swift elves.

The Dolphins’ winning drive included two key third-down conversions, on a screen pass to Tyreek Hill and a run up the middle by Jeff Wilson, Jr.

And finally, there was the No. 1 Christmas elf, Jason Sanders, to deliver the item at the top of South Florida’s wish list.

“I feel like every guy on the team knew what was at stake,” Hill said of the final drive, “and plus it was a big moment for us. We can look back at the course of the game. We have Tennessee being the last game we could have won and we didn’t deliver. So this game right here was kind of like the mentality game for us.

“When everyone on the offensive side, during meetings, we said, look, whenever we have a chance to score or win the game, or end the game with the ball, we’re going to do that. And that’s something that’s been communicated throughout our meetings and stuff like that, because we just can’t be called the best offense, we can’t be called explosive, we have to be able to have good drives and the way Tua orchestrated the last drive, it was a thing of beauty.”

More heavy lifting on New Year’s Eve

So Merry Christmas, Dolfans. As for Happy New Year, well, that’s going to be another big challenge.

The final day of 2023 has the Dolphins traveling to Baltimore vying for the all-important top seed in the AFC, which Miami held briefly before the Monday night collapse against the Titans.

The top-seeded team gets a bye on the first weekend of the playoffs. The second seed has to host a wild-card game.

Plus, the Buffalo Bills are still lurking and dangerous. The Dolphins need a win over the Ravens or a Bills loss to the Patriots to clinch that elusive first division title in 15 years.
Otherwise, that will be decided when the Bills visit Miami in the regular-season finale.

So while the comeback win against the Cowboys freed the Dolphins of some weighty stigmas, there is still some heavy lifting just head.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Bradley Chubb had three sacks for Dolphins in rout of Jets.

Pressure Point: Dolphins’ defense dominates Jets, builds confidence for stretch run

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The Miami Dolphins got exactly what they needed Sunday, a stifling performance by a revved up defense and big day receiving from Jaylen Waddle.

That produced a had-to-have division win over the New York Jets before undertaking a season-ending three-game gauntlet against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills.

The 30-0 rout didn’t negate the effects of the 14-point collapse in the final three minutes in losing to the Titans on Monday night. It did show a sense of urgency that coach Mike McDaniel promised from his team.

“I can’t overstate how it was a punch to the gut last week,” McDaniel said. “I’m as proud as I’ve been with any performance since I’ve been here.”

With star wide receiver Tyreek Hill inactive due to an ankle injury, the Dolphins needed to lean on the defense. Vic Fangio’s unit responded with a dominant effort.

Chubb, Sieler, Wilkins lead Dolphins defense

It did appear to be cathartic for the defense, which harassed and unnerved Zach Wilson, the reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week. The Jets QB was 4-for-11 with just 26 passing yards before leaving before halftime with a head injury.

Led by pressure up front from Bradley Chubb, Zach Sieler and Christian Wilkins, the Dolphins held the Jets to four net yards — minus-10 passing — in the first half while registering five sacks.

It was the fewest yards allowed in the first half of an NFL game since Dec. 13, 2015 when Denver limited the Raiders to minus-12 yards in the first half.

For the game, they held the Jets to 103 yards with an average of 1.9 yards per play.

It was the second-lowest yardage output in a game in Dolphins history — they held Buffalo to 76 yards in 1973.

They finished with six sacks and four takeaways.

Chubb finished with three sacks, two forced fumbles and seven total tackles, including two tackles for loss.

It was solid redemption for the costly penalty Chubb took for throwing his helmet during the meltdown against the Titans.

McDaniel lauds character win

Sieler, a defensive tackle with a sudden nose for the end zone, recovered a fumble and came a yard shy of a touchdown in back-to-back games. Sieler also batted down a pass, had a sack, two quarterback hurries and a tackle for loss in addition to the fumble recovery.

Safety Brandon Jones had a pair of interceptions.

While the Jets’ toothless offense was a shadow of what the Dolphins will face in the next three weeks, the level of play of the defense gives reason for optimism.

After a slow start to the season, Fangio’s crew has overshadowed Miami’s offense in recent weeks, the fourth quarter against the Titans notwithstanding.

That trend of refuse-to-lose defense will need to continue in the weeks ahead.

At 10-4 the Dolphins control their playoff fortunes. But they still carry the stigma of not having beaten a a team over.500 this season with 10-4 Dallas and 10-3 Baltimore coming up before a season-ending date with the Bills at Hard Rock Stadium.

McDaniel was effusive in praise of the character his players exhibited in bouncing back from a devastating defeat while dealing with questions about the health of players at numerous positions.

Terron Armstead returned from multiple injuries and played the whole game at left tackle. Liam Eichenberg did a creditable job filling the void at center after Connor Williams’ season-ending injury and was awarded a game ball.

Waddle, Mostert stand out on offense

Waddle did his part to compensate for the absence of Hill, who tested his injured ankle pregame. Waddle had his best game of the season with eight catches for 142 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown from Tua Tagovailoa on a streak down the sideline.

That had Dolphins owner Steve Ross doing “The Waddle” celebration dance.

“We shouldn’t change who we are because one guy is out,” Tagovailoa said.

Nonetheless, except for that long heave to Waddle, which CBS analyst Tony Romo referred to as a “big-arm” throw, Tagovailoa mostly stuck to small ball with screens, quick outs and assorted short but accurate tosses.

Tua completed his first 11 passes and finished 21-for-24 for 224 yards and a passer rating of 119.4.

It was a good day to pad stats, and running back Raheem Mostert continued his assault on the Dolphins’ record book with two touchdown runs. That gave him 17 rushing touchdowns, 19 overall touchdowns. Broke broke team marks of Ricky Williams and Mark Clayton, respectively.

“Everyone knew what we put out Monday was embarrassing. We didn’t want to feel that feeling again,” Tagovailoa said.

This is the last of the feel-good wins on the schedule. Going forward, the opponents are all playoff caliber with Super Bowl aspirations.

The weeks ahead will finally tell the story of the character and mettle of these Dolphins.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Andrew Van Ginkel returned an interception for a touchdown for the Dolphins in win at Washington.

Pressure Point: Dolphins showcase depth as stand-ins stand out in rout

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No surprise that the Miami Dolphins easily dispatched another of the lesser teams that they have made a habit of bullying this season.

This time the patsy was the overmatched Commanders and the outcome was never in doubt on the way to a 45-15 rout Sunday at Washington. It boosted Miami to 9-3 — for the first time since 2001 — and extended the Dolphins’ lead in the AFC East to three games over idle Buffalo (bye week).

It was an opportunity for Miami stars to add to their impressive resume of eye-opening accomplishments. Notably, Tyreek Hill became the first Dolphins receiver with two touchdown receptions 60 yards or longer since Paul Warfield in 1971.

More on the numbers later. But what stood out most from a Dolphins standpoint was the way it showcased their depth with a number of players excelling as stand-ins for injured starters.

The poster boy for that was Andrew Van Ginkel, who stepped into the void created by Jaelan Phillips’ season-ending Achilles injury and turned in a high-energy performance. Van Ginkel jumped a short pass by Sam Howell and turned it into six points. He also flushed Howell into a sack.

Emmanuel Ogbah, who also saw his role increase due to Phillips’ injury, had one of the three sacks on Howell, his fifth of the season.

Baker injured in collision with teammate

Safety Brandon Jones also had a productive day filling in for Jevon Holland (knee). Unfortunately, in making a touchdown-saving tackle, Jones inadvertently wiped out teammate Jerome Baker, injuring the linebacker’s left knee.

Duke Riley stepped in for Baker and immediately made his presence felt, matching David Long Jr. with a team-high seven combined tackles (four of them assists).
While it is a tribute to the depth of talent, the accumulating of injuries is concerning. Once again the offensive line was affected.

Star left tackle Terron Armstead, who always seems to be dealing with multiple issues, added another when he exited with an ankle injury. Robert Hunt, who returned at right guard, aggravated his hamstring and was unable to finish.

As has has often been the case throughout the season, the shuffled line gave a credible showing and allowed no sacks.

Achane returns with strong performance

Meanwhile, rookie running back De’Von Achane, returned from aggravating a knee injury two weeks ago and had a game-high 72 rushing yards (4.3-yard average) and two touchdowns. He also had three catches for 30 yards.

Hill, with 157 yards on five receptions continued on pace to become the first receiver with 2,000 yards in a season. The Cheetah pushed his season total to 1,481 with five games remaining. He’s averaging 123.4 yards a game.

With those TD catches of 78 and 60 yards pushing his season total to 12 and helping Miami streak to a 31-7 lead at halftime, Hill is building a strong case as a non-quarterback MVP candidate.

It also produced another innovative touchdown celebration.

Tua Tagovailoa bounced back from a mistake-marred performance against the Jets with one of his better statistical performances of the season, completing 75 percent of his passes (18 of 24) , a 141.0 passer rating, the two TD tosses to Tyreek and no turnovers (he had two interceptions including a pick-6 and lost a fumble against the Jets).

In addition, Running back Raheem Mostert had a 2-yard run for his league-leading 14th rushing touchdown. He’s two away from tying Ricky Williams’ Dolphins season record.
Except for injury concerns, it was another feel-good win for a Dolphins team chugging toward their first AFC East crown since 2008.

Curiously, they still don’t have a win over a team with a record above .500 — the Broncos were 6-5 before a 22-17 loss to Houston on Sunday. But with home dates the next two weeks against the 4-8 Titans and Jets, they may have the division sewn up before the closing stretch against the Cowboys, Ravens and defending division champion Bills.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

The Dolphins' Jaelan Phillips has an Achilles tendon give out as he began to rush the passer in the second half against the Jets.

Pressure Point: Jaelan Phillips’ injury taints Dolphins’ win, renews turf complaints

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What should have been a feel-good win for the Miami Dolphins with a thorough trouncing of the rival Jets instead left a sickening aftertaste due to the loss of a defensive standout to an apparent serious leg injury.

The sight of Jaelan Phillips, who was blossoming into a dominant force as an edge player, being carted off the field after collapsing with an Achilles tendon injury without being engaged in contact turned a 34-13 win into a heartbreaker for the Dolphins on Friday at Met Life Stadium in the Meadowlands.

Until then the visual of the day was a spectacular 99-yard interception return by Dolphins safety Jevon Holland off a “Hail Mary” throw by the Jets’ Tim Boyle just before the end of the first half.

Curiously, it was 39 years to the day since the most infamous Hail Mary in the annals of Miami football. It was Nov. 23, 1984 that Boston College QB Doug Flutie uncorked a desperation heave that carried more than 60 yards and came down in the hands of his roommate Gerard Phelan with 6 seconds left to snatch victory from the Miami Hurricanes in a 45-41 thriller.

Flutie’s Miracle in Miami is often referred to as the “Hail Flutie”.

Jets flop with ‘Fail Mary’

Boyle’s ill-fated fling was quickly being referred to on social media as a “Fail Mary.” It was indicative of the failings of an inept Jets offense that has been reeling without direction since losing quarterback Aaron Rodgers to an Achilles injury in the season opener.

Rodgers’ injury occurred on the same Met Life Stadium artificial turf that been derided by players as a dangerous surface. There have been quite a few serious injuries attributed to the unforgiving surface there.

“It’s tough, especially playing on this turf,” Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert said after the game. “You saw what happened to Rodgers in the first game. We’ve got to do something about this turd. Obviously, it’s still a major problem. It just has to change.

“The reason why guys are against the [artificial] turf is there’s no give to the turf.”

Losing Phillips is a tough blow to a Dolphins defense that continued its resurgence with another dominant performance. The injury is devastating for Phillips who overcame injuries that nearly ended his football career in college.

Phillips’ injury stirs emotions

Before the injury, Phillips was having another outstanding game with four tackles, a sack, two quarterback hits, and three tackles for loss.

Later, Phillips tweeted: “Absolutely devastated, but I feel strength in knowing that this is all a part of God’s plan, and that I have an incredible team and support system around me. I’ll be back stronger than ever.”

Phillips, who the Dolphins drafted in the first round after one season at the University of Miami, has merged as a favorite not only of Dolphins fans but of teammates.

“He’s going to know that he’s loved and he’s missed, but we’re going to go out there and ball for him,” ~ Holland said in a TV interview immediately after the game.

Meanwhile, the signature play of the game was Holland picking off Boyle’s pass and weaving through through futile pursuit by the Jets. Vital because it followed Tua Tagovailoa throwing a pick-6 that cut the Miami lead to 10-6, putting the Jets back in the game despite managing only two first downs and 47 yards of total offense in the half.

Another Tua interception then set up Boyle’s ill-fated heave with 2 seconds remaining. Instead, Holland’s coast-to-coast dash made it 17-6 Miami at the intermission and the outcome was never in doubt after that.

“That was one of the best plays I’ve ever seen,” Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle said. “That was a crazy play that we needed.”

“That was very reminiscent of [hall-of-famer] Ed Reed,” coach Mike McDaniel said.

The Dolphins improved to 8-3 and are sitting pretty in the AFC East lead and as one of five three-loss teams in the conference.

Dolphins one of five three-loss teams in AFC

They were also 8-3 at this point last season before losing five in a row.

There is plenty of reason to feel better about their position right now. The next three weeks they face the 4-8 Commanders away, and the 3-7 Titans and the 4-7 Jets at home.

Miami’s fate in the regular season figures to be decided by the closing gauntlet of Cowboys, Ravens and Bills.

As in recent weeks, the Dolphins defense continued to impress more than the offense that was the talk of the NFL early in the season but has been erratic lately.

The defense had seven sacks and limited the struggling Jets offense to 2.9 yards per play.

Fins have things to fix on offense

Offensively, the turnovers were troubling and the health of the line continues to be a concern.

Star left tackle Terron Armstead left the game early with another injury. With backup Kendall Lamm also ailing, they had to call on the third choice of Kion Smith.

Nonetheless, I was glad to see McDaniel stick with the rushing game even though room to run was sparse against a tough Jets defense. The Dolphins averaged a mere 3.3 yards a carry in the first half. But they ended up with 167 yards and an average of 4.5, including two second-half touchdown by Mostert.

Most impressive was the 15-play, 92-yard drive that consumed nine minutes and put the game well out of reach at 27-6.

It must be a good sign that the Dolphins has progressed to where even lopsided wins get picked apart. But it’s tough to feel bad in any way about a rout of the hated Jets on the road.
Unfortunately, the injury to Phillips left a deep pain in the gut to the team and its fans.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.