Season Ticket: For Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa, it’s about what’s next

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And?

That’s the question that matters to Mike McDaniel, the Miami Dolphins’ coach with the zen sensibility. That’s the word he passes toward his premium, increasingly pugnacious passer, the one whose failure pleases so many, for reasons beyond any reason.

And?

“A human being has ears and eyes,” McDaniel philosophized on the Wednesday prior to the Dolphins’ season opener, a game they would win 36-34, on the road, from behind, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for 466 yards. “For Tua, it’s literally as boring as the same thing we’ve been talking through each and every practice, when anything goes right or wrong. And it’s like, ‘And?'”

And?

“It’s worry about the next play, worry about how we are getting from the huddle to the line of scrimmage, worry about your technique and fundamentals, and your assignments,” McDaniel continued. “And you have to hold that independently. Because the second you start buying into a bad play or a good play, you’re, you’re really wishing the future into existence. It’s hard enough to play in this league, you can’t worry about extra stuff…”

“It’s that process that, across all sports, anybody who has been successful over a period of time has that process to them, because you are only as good as the next play that you have. And you shouldn’t stand on entitlement of previous plays if they were good. Or you shouldn’t shame yourself if you didn’t like the result. That mental fortitude, that strong mindedness, is something that not many people have. Tua’s wired that way, that gives him a chance to succeed.”

And….. so here we are.

Game 2.

In New England.

And Tua Tagovailoa, who has shown himself as resilient and defiant as any athlete in the South Florida market in some time, rallying back from a major collegiate injury, suffering silently amid an initial coaching situation (hello Brian Flores) that seemingly sabotaged him, enduring the slings and arrows from the national media about his arm, his physique, his concussion susceptibility and everything else…..

Now that quarterback — 1-0, in the MVP conversation already, and more sure of himself than ever — must show that he can succeed amid success. That he can counter complacency. That he can keep soaring and take his team with him.

So that’s what is at stake for Tagovailoa tonight, in front of a national television audience and against a legendary coach against whom he’s had uncommon success, already 4-0 vs. the Patriots of Bill Belichick.

Can he prosper as a frontrunner when even as the No. 5 overall pick, he’s always been the underdog?

What’s his “and” when all has gone well?

Because we know when he does when it doesn’t. Tagovailoa has shown an uncanny ability to excel after an error, in just about every game (see Green Bay, Christmas) when he wasn’t concussed. It happened again after he misfired on a 3rd and 12 deep in Chargers territory, down 24-20 in last Sunday’s fourth quarter, with his pass for new favorite Braxton Berrios intercepted in the end zone. The Dolphins, for a change in a game they were manhandled on the defensive front, quickly forced a punt.

Tagovailoa entered.

And if you’ve been following his now four-season career, you knew what was next.

First play.

Tyreek Hill.

Thirty-five yards.

Touchdown, and the lead.

Someone with more time than I will compute his career passing rating on plays and drives directly following one of his miscues, but the odds are it’s triple digits.

How?

When that’s when so many quarterbacks shrink and cower?

I asked him that this Wednesday.

“I think that’s been a big growth for me this offseason, is being able to sort of erase the next play, and really hone in on what the next play requires of me,” Tagovailoa said. “The saying of ‘each play stands on its own merit’ is sort of the approach that I take when I’m given a play to go throw out there. Sometimes that play could be an interception or I could have gotten sacked on that play. We call it again. We can’t think, ‘OK, since you threw this interception, you are not gonna read it that way anymore, you’re gonna change how you read it.’ For me, it’s all right, each play stands on its own merit. How would you read this if you were in your flow? You would read it this way. That’s how I tried, the OTAs, this camp, that’s how I tried to get my frame of mind, as far as each play, and you’ve just got to out there and make the correction and continue playing.”

He did that last Sunday. He did that with the blonde bomber Justin Herbert on the other side, the favored gunner who is actually the real dink and dunker of the too, even if public perception tells you different. Herbert didn’t come through when it mattered. He rarely does. Tua does in most of the moments that matter: third downs, fourth quarters, and so on.

And Sunday in Los Angeles, he had a big number to show for it.

What of the ongoing concerns and complaints about whether he can throw deep?

“I don’t care,” he said, laughing. “I mean, I don’t care. 466 is, that’s what 466 is if I can’t throw deep. Thanks.”

466 was last week.

So was 36-34.

So now, for Tagovailoa and his Dolphins….

And?

 

The author, Ethan Skolnick, is the CEO of Five Reasons Sports.

Tua Tagovailoa will miss the Dolphins' game at New England and possibly more.

Pressure Point: Dolphins’ offense exhilarating in opening win; defense needs work

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Woke up still breathless from the Miami Dolphins’ thrill-a-minute 36-34 win win over the Chargers in the season opener at Los Angeles.

The numbers were staggering: 969 net yards by the two teams. There were nine lead changes. The Dolphins only punted once.

The Miami offense was a breathtaking journey on Mr. Tua’s Wild Ride with a heaping helping of Tyreek Hill.

The Dolphins put up 536 yards, including 466 passing by Tua Tangovailoa (28 of 45, three touchdowns, one interception, 110.0 passer rating.) He completed 11 of those passes to Hill, who with 215 yards and three TDs took a strong first step toward becoming the first receiver with 2,000 yards in a season.

Meanwhile, the Fins defense was a recurring gut punch that left you gasping for help.

Better late than never for Fins’ defense

Vic Fangio’s crew made its presence felt just in time to salvage the win and the new defensive coordinator’s esteem with two sacks and a forced intentional grounding.

Defensive tackle Zach Sieler, newly signed to a three-year, $30.75 million contract, got the first one. Then on fourth down, Jaelan Phillips and Justin Bethel met at the quarterback to end a day that otherwise belonged to high-falutin offense.

Kudos to them for that.

Usually what happens in these NFL shootouts is a very NBA-like result: whoever has the ball last wins.

It appeared headed that way after Jason Sanders missed the extra point after the Dolphins took the lead on Tagovailo’s last hook-up with Hill with 1:45 remaining.

The Chargers took over on their 25, needing just to advance into field-goal range. Their hopes died after five plays netted only eight yards.

An instant classic

It was another high-scoring classic that brought to mind the 1982 playoff epic won in overtime by the Chargers, 41-38.

An offensive shootout was not unexpected. What didn’t figure was that Chargers QB Justin Herbert’s handiwork would be mostly about handing off.

While Herbert threw for 228 yards and a touchdown (23 of 33), the Chargers amassed more yards (234) on the ground, and averaged more yards per play rushing than passing (5.9 to 5.5).

New Chargers OC Kellen Moore certainly brought a change in philosophy to the pass-happy Chargers, who in recent years lived or died wlth Herbert’s arm. They averaged just under 90 yards a game rushing last season.

In Moore’s first game in the role for L.A., he had Austin Ekeler (117 yards) and Joshua Kelley (91 yards) running roughshod over the Miami defense.

Dolphins can’t stop the run

The Dolphins never really slowed them down, let alone stopped the Chargers’ rushing attack.

In the end those two sacks and an earlier one by Kader Kohou that set up a Tua-to-Hill TD, were just enough for Miami.

If this Dolphins defense is going to be good enough going forward remains to be seen.

Certainly, expectations were much higher after Fangio was embraced as the team’s most important offseason addition.

A more conservative, less risky approach on pass defense than in recent years under Josh Boyer comes with Fangio. The porous run defense was alarming.

As was allowing touchdown drives of 94, 75, 75 and 75 yards.

Tagovailoa, receivers have field day

Exhilarating offense prevailed for Miami. Tagovailoa, Hill and Co. showed all they can be and that they can match scores with anyone if need be.

Tua’s performance wasn’t without flaws. He had two turnovers in the red zone, including a poorly thrown ball into the end zone that was intercepted.

But he came right back and hit Hill in stride on a streak along the sideline for a 35-yard touchdown. Rapid atonement has become a Tua hallmark.

He also showed a finishing touch by threading the winning 4-yard TD over a defender to Hill.

His most pressure-packed throw was the 47-yard completion to Hill on third-and-10 on that drive.

Also impressive was converting on third-and-15 with a pass on the run to Braxton Berrios. That jump-started a drive to a field goal that cut the Chargers’ lead to 31-30.

This time Dolphins rule middle ground

The bigger picture was the turnaround from what happened when these teams met last year. Remember how an injury-riddled Chargers defense applied press coverage and clogged the middle of the field and held Miami to 219 total yards?

This time Tagovailoa thoroughly carved up the Chargers secondary in the middle as his speedy receivers turned the game into what Chargers coach Brandon Staley aptly referred to as “a track meet.” Miami had nine plays of at least 21 yards.

Impact by multiple receivers

Another good sign was Tagovailoa had multiple completions to seven receivers. Tight end Durham Smythe, best known for his blocking, had three receptions for 44 yards. Tua made good use of secondary wideouts River Cracraft (three receptions, 40 yards including a touchdown) and newcomer Berrios (three receptions, 42 yards). Fullback Alec Ingold also had two catches for first downs.

Miami’s O-line stands tall

Perhaps most important, the offensive line didn’t allow a sack despite missing star left tackle Terron Armstead. Tagovailoa rarely felt heat from Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and other Chargers rushers.

The Dolphins’ run game showed promise early — Raheem Mostert had six carries for 32 yards and a touchdown in the first half — but then was abandoned.

Considering the Dolphins scored on seven of nine possessions (not counting a final possession of kneel-downs) it is difficult to find much fault with the offense or Tagovailoa’s performance.

It reiterated that as long as Tagovailoa, Hill and bookend wide receiver Jaylen Waddle are healthy, these Dolphins can be a force. But also that depth of talent on offense is more than star deep.

Going forward, an earlier wakeup call for the defense would be appreciated.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the platform formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Miami Dolphins 2023 Season Preview & Predictions: Defense

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The Josh Boyer era as defensive coordinator came to a close at the end of a disappointing injury-filled season. That unit, considered one of the most promising up-and-coming defenses in the league the past couple of years, is now commanded by the highly distinguished Vic Fangio. Having spent over thirty-five years coaching in the NFL, including three years as head coach, Fangio’s innovative schemes are heavily incorporated throughout the league. Having the creator himself running the Dolphins defense, brings a renewed optimism and energy to a unit that seems on the brink of taking off.

 

What exactly Fangio brings to the Dolphins, and the methods he uses to push his players to meet the high expectations people have placed on them will be a major early storyline throughout this season.

 

Identifying the players who have critical roles in ensuring this defense can become one of the league’s best, and what they must accomplish, is a great place to start.

 

Jaelan Phillips is very good, but can he be special? – Two things that have never lacked for Phillips are his incredible athleticism and physique, and a motor that never quits. Maxing out his work ethic and athletic gifts, got him to the very-good mark. Last season he was seventh in the league in total pressures (70) and hurries (44), but only twenty-first in sacks (7).

 

In order to max out the rest of his potential, he needs to become a finisher. Aside from instincts and athletic superiority, what makes players like Micah Parsons, TJ Watt, and Myles Garrett elite, are their diverse and refined pass-rush move-sets and technique. Phillips too often relies on his power and bull-rush to try and beat his defenders. Growing his bag of tricks with rips, chops, swims and spins will play a significant factor in whether or not Phillips reaches his ceiling.

 

Steady is the pace for Jevon Holland – Stats and numbers are a great tool for evaluating players, but they can sometimes be misleading. For instance, the numbers would show that Holland suffered a bit of regression in his second season. He allowed the sixth highest completion percentage amongst safeties (80%), however the secondary lost two significant starters at cornerback (Byron Jones, Nik Needham), and the safety who plays opposite him (Brandon Jones). The scheme was designed to run heavy-blitzes with the cornerbacks playing press-man. Being down such important personnel forced Holland to try and pick up a lot of slack.

 

This year should result in significant growth for Holland, as long as he maintains the trajectory he’s already shown. Fangio’s scheme is dependent on high-level play from the free safety, and he has a knack for bringing the most out of them. Over the years Fangio has developed All-Pros like Justin Simmons, Eddie Jackson and Dashon Goodson, Pro Bowlers Eric Reid, Donte Whitner, and Antoine Bethea, and others like Adrian Amos and Kareem Jackson.

 

While Jalen Ramsey is out for at least half of the season, and there are questions surrounding who will man the other safety position, Holland should have every opportunity to become the next notch on Fangio’s long list of star safeties.

 

Cam Smith needs to be a quick study, and Kader Kohou can’t have a sophomore slump – With Ramsey out until sometime in November, at the very least, the Dolphins can’t afford to see the injuries or struggles of last season become an issue again. There’s hope that Nik Needham will come off the PUP (physically unable to perform) list at some point this year, and you can’t control injuries, but in order for the secondary to play at a high level Kader Kohou needs to show last season’s surprise breakout wasn’t a fluke.

 

Second-round pick Cam Smith flashed early and often in training camp before suffering a shoulder injury. Luckily, he wasn’t sidelined long. He showed a penchant for making big plays at the University of South Carolina and has a hungry mentality. With Xavien Howard now at the ripe-age of thirty, Smith has a lot of expectations on his shoulders to help the cornerback position stay at a high level for years to come.

—-

 

Beyond the growth of the young players on the roster, there’s specific things the defense must do this season to become a top-ten unit.

 

The Dolphins must prove they can finally sack the quarterback, especially in the absence of a high blitz rate – Fangio’s system is not known for running many blitzes, something the Dolphins did at one of the highest rates in the league under Brian Flores and Josh Boyer.

 

When the team hasn’t sent the extra bodies, rushers have struggled to bring the quarterback down.  Part of the reason for that last year was the aforementioned struggles in the secondary. Despite having the third highest pass rush win rate in 2022, they only finished fifteenth in sacks. The year prior, with Howard and Byron Jones healthy, Miami had the fifth most sack in the league.

 

The new scheme will move the defense away from the man-to-man coverages they were used to, and will feature predominantly zone concepts. What makes Fangio one of the best is his ability to keep the quarterback guessing by continuously switching up the zone assignments post snap. This diminishes the passer’s ability to identify weaknesses pre-snap.

 

If the secondary and linebackers can maintain their zone assignments, it could force opposing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball longer while they make their reads, and give rushers opportunities at coverage sacks. They key will be Phillips, and Bradley Chubb showing they can manipulate the pocket and bring quarterbacks down, as well as Christian Wilkins proving he’s not just an elite run-stopper on the interior.

 

Speaking of a significant reduction in blitz plays, can the Dolphins continue to prove their run defense is stout – After finishing with the fifth highest run-block grade (78.2), thanks in large part to Wilkins (best run stop win rate in the NFL in 2022) and the newly re-signed Zach Seiler (4th highest run-defense grade, PFF), can they maintain a high-level without the help of the disguised blitz?

 

This scheme runs with light boxes that try and entice offenses to run the ball. The defensive lineman play gap-and-a-half, while trying to force the runner outside where the safeties have the responsibility of forcing stops. Both Brandon Jones and DeShon Elliott are known for playing in the box and stopping the run. Elliott finished with the tenth most stops (15) among safeties in 2022 (Lions). Jones, who suffered a torn-acl last season, is still working his way back. Holland can also defend the run, but will likely be tasked to defend the deep part of the field.

 

It’s time to shine for Jerome Baker and David Long Jr. – Both linebackers will play a significant coverage role in Fangio’s defense. For Baker, this will be an adjustment as he had a heavy role in the pass rush, and far fewer coverage snaps than most linebackers the past few years. That’s not to say he can’t do it however, as he has the necessary athletic requirements and has been sufficient in coverage throughout his career.

 

The addition of David Long has the potential to pay huge dividends for the Dolphins. He’s tailor-made for this scheme, and could help elevate the run defense even further. The biggest concern for him is health, as he’s missed eleven games over the past two seasons and has struggled with soft-tissue injuries.

 

For this defense to be successful, both Baker and Long need to play at the level they.re capable of, and stay on the field. While Duke Riley has proven to be a decent role-player at times, he nor last year’s third-round pick Channing Tindall have shown enough to inspire confidence in elevated roles.

 

Predicting the season…

 

-Reuniting Bradley Chubb with Vic Fangio will allow both Chubb and Phillips to become the players everyone thinks they can be. With a talented secondary, those two should have the time to get to the quarterback. Having a pass-rusher with the talent to be a 10+ sack per year player has resulted in Fangio’s defenses allowing five fewer points per game averages. With those two on the edge manipulating the pocket, and the return of Emmanuel Ogbah on passing downs, the Dolphins have no excuse for not turning potential into reality.

Jaelan Phillips: 11.5 sacks

Bradley Chubb: 7.5 sacks

Christian Wilkins: 6 sacks

Zach Seiler: 4 sacks

 

-Miami will see the return of impact plays from their role players. Having a healthy Ogbah could be a surprise x-factor to the defense. Another could come from a player who has made impact plays in the past, and that’s Andrew Van Ginkel. Both players should benefit from being in this scheme, assuming the secondary stays relatively healthy and can perform in coverage. It’s tough to predict specific stats for role players, but you can predict that they’ll make a significant mark throughout the season

 

-Xavien Howard will have his return to glory. Taking away the physical stress of having to play on an island against every team’s best receiver, should help keep ‘X’ healthy after suffering two nagging hamstring injuries in 2022. Putting him in the position to read, anticipate, and react to the quarterback will be a gift for a player who is special in large part because he’s among the best at doing those things. I wouldn’t be surprised if Howard manages a 4-6 interception season, and likely another trip to the Pro Bowl

 

-The Dolphins will see a couple of defensive All-Pros in 2023…

Jevon Holland

Christian Wilkins

…and a few Pro Bowlers as well

Xavien Howard

Jaelan Phillips

Wilkins

Hollan

 

-Miami will finish the season with a top twelve defense in yards, and top five in points with an average of under 20 ppg allowed.

 

Miami Hurricanes

The End of the Beginning

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As the ball nestled harmlessly onto the Brazos Valley turf, carrying with it the Canes’ ill-fated comeback attempt, a calm settled over the Hurricanes.

Amidst the cultish cheering of the maroon clad zealots those of us resplendently dressed in ostentatious orange filed out of Kyle Field beaten but not defeated. The result was disappointing, but the effort was there. And the Canes looked the part under the premise that Texas A&M was a talented, high quality opponent that Miami had outplayed on the road.

The reality was far different. Both teams were headed to disappointing 5-7 seasons and a tumultuous offseason of change.

What we saw that day in Aggieland was two programs that were headed in the wrong direction. When two teams fight to the last play, the cliche that is often uttered is “it’s a shame there has to be a loser.” Last year, when these two teams met, it was a shame there had to be a winner.

Mario Cristobal 2.0

When Mario Cristobal constructed the 2022 Miami Hurricanes coaching staff, he did so in a very un-Miami way.

For all the glitz and glamour of Miami, for the misappropriation of the term “South Beach,” for the stereotype of sunshine and palm trees, Miami itself is a self-made, hard scrabble town built on the backs of immigrants. What people from outside of Miami don’t realize is that those from the neighboring counties of Broward and Palm Beach are much more Miami than the glitterati you see on TV and social media. And the University of Miami football program mirrors that reality as the school for all of South Florida.

And so it was with great excitement with which we greeted our new money overlords that showed up over the last 18 months. Finally, Miami could spend money rivaling traditional college powers. The all everything staff was assembled. The Offensive Coordinator? Stolen from Michigan. The QB Coach? Was an Offensive Coordinator in his previous role. The LB coach? Was previously the Head Coach of 3 FBS schools and a National Championship Defensive Coordinator.

As John Hammond famously said in Jurassic Park, we “spared no expense.” And this worked out as well as that did.

By the end of the Canes’ season, the only thing left of the rotting carcass of that season was the undeniable truth surrounding the failure of that approach.

The Canes finally flush with cash had the ability to not only attract top coaches but to also place them in positions beneath their station. And while the administration, and Mario, finally had that money to spend on these coaches, they “were so preoccupied with whether they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should.”

And so the reboot started this offseason. Slowly coaches that were celebrated upon their arrival left out the back door. Their replacements? Unheralded assistants looking for their big break.

Replacing those that felt Miami was lucky to have them with hungry assistants viewing Miami as the stage from which they can ascend up the coaching ranks is a return to the roots of the program.

And of the city.

Culture Clash

Miami is not an easy place to play or win. In a crowded sports landscape, expectations abound. Despite 20 years of futility, there is still a championship or bust mentality.

This week’s opponent is the polar opposite. Texas A&M is tradition rich. While the Canes are often mocked for attendance (usually unjustifiably and with out-of-context images), the Aggies fill their stadium. The whole town (if you want to flatter it by calling it that) is centrally focused on the school’s football team.

So obsessive are the Aggies’ fans that they hold cheering practice called “Midnight Yell” the night before home games. The tradition of Yell Practice started in 1913, 12 years before the University of Miami even existed.

They have a chant for everything, with the crowd participation often detached from whatever is transpiring on the field. Their band is massive, spanning the entire field, executing maneuvers with military precision.

Famously friendly, they’ll greet you with a “howdy” and talk your ear off about traditions. Evangelists, the whole of them.

The Aggies mascot is a well-manicured, pampered female Rough Collie named Reveille.

They are everything Miami is not. And for that, I’m thankful.

The Miami Way

Cause amidst the pomp and pageantry, for all the traditions and revelry, do you know what’s missing? Winning.

Give me the half empty stadium, the searing humidity, the small private campus, the poor student in the bird costume trying not to pass out from heat exhaustion…part of Miami’s greatness is that the tradition doesn’t matter. The outlier school shall always remain the outlier school.

To the extent there are traditions: Running through the smoke, holding up 4 fingers at the start of the 4th quarter, and yes, the now defunct Turnover Chain, they are quickly co-opted by other schools.

Schools can copy those things, but they can’t copy what makes Miami unique, which is a local school where kids from the community go to make it big, lifting themselves and by extension the school and community.

The one tradition forged in the 80s, carried forward through to the early 2000s, that has been dormant for 20 years is the winning. And with it, the program has lost its swagger.

As the Canes enter this week, with the invaders from Texas coming to South Florida, it’s time to rediscover the famous Miami Pride. A program built on doing what it is repeatedly told is not possible has been overrun by a lack of self belief.

But I reject that premise. It’s time to be Miami again. When you go to College Station, they greet you with a “Howdy” in the parking lot and a warm welcome. And that’s fine for them.

In Miami? Win on the field, and if you want to fight in the parking lot (or in the stands, or in Publix), we’ll do that too. This is not about a resurrection, but a restoration.

We’re not to be intimidated, we’re the ones that are supposed to do the intimidating

First we deal with Jimbo, then Mack, then Dabo, then Mike. This year we start to settle all Family business.

And it is a Family. For all the differences between Miami and Texas A&M, Miami is a cult of its own. But the beliefs are not in centuries-old traditions, passed down from generation to generation, from back when Old Tex told his bull to skedaddle.

The only core belief for the Miami Family is a belief in Miami itself. We believe in each other. There is magic in the Magic City. Miami is simultaneously a noun, a verb, and an adjective.

It’s that belief in Miami’s otherworldliness that has brought it this far, and it is that belief that will carry it forward.

This program was built fighting and winning the battles that are categorized as impossible, often motivated by the mere statement that winning was not achievable. 

And that needs to begin anew on Saturday. There will still be trials and tribulations, times when the team struggles, bad losses. Such is the nature of sport, such is the nature of a rebuild.

Saturday is not the end of the rebuild. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a show host and writer for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. He also co-hosts Buckets, which covers Miami Hurricanes Basketball. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

Tua Tagovailoa

Miami Dolphins 2023 season predictions: Offense

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After finishing sixth in total yards in 2022, the Dolphins enter year two under Mike McDaniel with high expectations. Tua Tagovailoa is healthy after missing five and half games (including their playoff wildcard loss to the Bills) due to concussions. The offense in general, managed to elude any significant training camp or preseason injuries. There’s even some new faces, like free-agent additions WR Braxton Berrios, OL Isaiah Wynn, TE Tyler Kroft, QB Mike White, and a promising rookie with third round pick RB De’Von Achane.

The start of a new campaign usually comes with some excitement, a ton of hot-takes and predictions, but also some concern-driven narratives that can come from the nearly nine-months of a way-too-long offseason. A couple of these narratives should be addressed, and the subsequent anxiety calmed, before making any concerted projections for the 2023 season.

Debunking the narrative:

After seeing Tua suffer multiple concussions last year, the Dolphins again chose to ignore the offensive line

There’s a reason Chris Grier has stated that he’s much less concerned about the offensive line, than the fans and media. It’s a message that the organization has tried to drive home in consecutive offseasons now, and it’s time for people to understand (and accept) why.

The Dolphins scheme is built on defensive manipulation. They utilize shifts and motions, to misdirect the defenses and leave them vulnerable (the tight ends, and fullback play a huge role in getting defenders to bite). Most offensive play-calls also give Tua the option to run or pass, based off of his pre-snap reads, which he is among the NFL’s best at.

Aside from the scheme philosophy, Miami’s offense is built heavily on quick timing routes. That ensures that Tua, who has one of the fastest releases in the NFL (2.3 seconds), isn’t a target of pass-rushers for very long.

In regard to Tua’s injury concerns, none of his concussions were a direct result of bad offensive line play. Each time he was trying to extend a play, rather than simply throwing the ball away (the hit Tua took from Matt Milano against the Bills was flagged for roughing-the-passer).

Overall, the Dolphins have done a good job at identifying run-blockers that fit the heavier personnel that Miami requires for their disguise scheme. Isaiah Wynn and Lester Cotton are considered better run-blockers than pass, and Connor Williams was elite (85.1 run blocking grade, ProFootballFocus) in the same regard last season. Tight ends Durham Smythe and Tyler Kroft, and fullback Alec Ingold are all positive value blockers with critical roles in both pass protection, and the running game.

Debunking the narrative: Miami’s unsuccessful flirtation with top-level running backs this offseason shows a lack of confidence (despite stating they’re comfortable) with their current group,and that could foreshadow a disappointing end result for them

Chris Grier’s pursuit of names like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, D’Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook, and most recently Jonathan Taylor, is likely more about identifying a player that may put you over the top, rather than a lack of belief in what they currently have.

Raheem Mostert (4.9 yards per carry) and Jeff Wilson (4.7) had few problems picking up yards on the ground last season. While the team was ranked near the bottom in the league in rushing yards, they were also ranked 31st in rushing attempts. This offseason Mike McDaniel stressed that he plans to incorporate the run game more than he did last season.

Jeff Wilson will start the season on the injured-reserve list, but Salvon Ahmed and rookies De’Von Achane and Chris Brooks have shown promise throughout training camp and the preseason games. This is also the Dolphins most diversified group they’ve had in a long time, as each player brings their own skill-set to the running back room.

Points of emphasis for the 2023 season

Spread the love – Forcing the ball to one of, if not the most dynamic wide receivers in history, isn’t something people are going to question…if it’s working. The Dolphins have one of the most talented receiving duo’s in the NFL, yet Hill had 53 more targets last year. In game’s where Hill’s target share significantly outpaced Waddle’s, Miami had a 2-4 record. Now with the addition of Braxton Berrios, a healthy and prepared Cedrick Wilson, and potential development of Erik Ezukanma, there’s no reason the team doesn’t balance out their passing attack.

Tua must be smarter in adverse situations – He admittedly has always been the type of quarterback to try and make something happen, even when a play breaks down. Aside from the concussions (that’s plural) he sustained trying to do exactly that, creating off-script has never been a strength for Tua (and that’s okay). Instead of focusing on what’s downfield beyond the time the imaginary alarm goes off in his head that says it’s time to get rid of the ball, learn to embrace the check-down.

For the first time in his professional career, Tua has a very promising and dynamic pass-catcher at running back in rookie De’Von Achane. Durham Smythe and Tyler Kroft have proven throughout their careers that they’re capable safety-nets at tight end, and WRs Berrios and Wilson are accomplished in the slot with yards-after-catch (YAC) ability.

If all else fails, throw the ball away. The result of an incomplete pass out of bounds is likely better than forcing something on a broken play.

It’s time to see if McDaniel can make the correct in-game adjustments and play-calls – Whether it’s hubris, nerves, or over-thinking, McDaniel seemed too stubborn to the game plan last season. It was obvious (painstakingly at times), that the identity of the offense was going to be attacking the middle of the field in the passing game. Most of the time it worked beautifully, particularly in the five-game stretch against the league’s worst passing defenses, but like with any offense teams began to show successful counters. Instead of pivoting to a plan b or c, McDaniel continued to try and force the issue.

As stated, McDaniel has made it clear that he is looking to make more of a commitment to the run, an area of the offense that was successful yet heavily underutilized last season. While there’s no doubt that he’ll stay true to that, what will he do in the midst of adversity in-game. Miami’s week fifteen loss against Buffalo was a prime example of not utilizing the run-game in obvious situations. Despite rushing for 188 yards at a 7.8 yards-per-carry clip, McDaniel made the decision to pass on three third-and-short situations. All three times the pass went incomplete and the drive ended.

The Dolphins had a monster passing attack with Tua on the field last year, as he led the entire league in yards per pass. There’s no reason for the offense to go away from that success this year, but can Mike McDaniel show that when the situation is calling for the obvious choice, he won’t backslide and try and force a big play.

There will be a very big early indicator of how this offense has progressed in year two – Miami was one the most penalized teams in the NFL in 2022, especially pre-snap where they finished with the third highest amount (46). Along with penalties, other self-inflicted wounds like drops and play-calling caused the offense to leave too many points on the field. Despite ranking 7th in EPA (Expected Points Added), the Dolphins finished 17th in drive success rate (44.6%).

Heading into the second year in this scheme, while returning the majority of last year’s personnel, the team should look prepared, efficient, and be operating on all cylinders.

Now, on to some measured (and objective) predictions…

Cedrick Wilson Jr. will have a larger role in the offense then people may think.

After dealing with some nagging injuries last season, which may have stunted his ability to work in and grasp a complicated offense, Wilson managed a healthy and productive preseason. In his final year with the Cowboys, he did manage to accumulate 602 yards and 6 touchdowns, on 45 receptions. On top of that, he managed an impressive 5.6 yards after the catch, which played a factor in why Miami signed him last offseason.

Wilson did end up earning playing time late last season, and displayed some dependability as he finished the season with zero drops.

If he can manage to stay healthy, there’s no reason he can’t contend with Braxton Berrios for the third wide receiver spot. Unless McDaniel has plans to work Erik Ezukanma into the passing game, Wilson is currently the only proven bigger-bodied pass catcher in the receiver room.

De’Von Achane will see a limited role to start the season, but will flash a Darren Sproles/Danny Woodhead like receiving ability as the season goes on.

From all indications, Achane didn’t do much to stand out in his first training camp. He also sustained a shoulder injury in the Dolphins’ second preseason game against the Texans, which kept him limited for the remainder of camp. It’s likely safe to assume that McDaniel will take a calculated approach to working him into regular season snaps, especially with Ahmed possessing many similar qualities and having impressed throughout the exhibition season.

While many fans may be excited to see his potential in the backfield, Achane brings an element to the passing game that Miami hasn’t had since Kenyon Drake was on the roster. In a similar mold to what role Darren Sproles played for the Chargers, Saints, and Eagles, or Danny Woodhead for the Patriots, Achane can be a dangerous weapon in the screen game. With the threat that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle bring downfield, having an explosive home-run threat catching dump-offs and screens can really move a defense out of balance.

I expect Achane to dazzle with at least a handful of chunk plays in the passing game before the season is over. A prediction of 250-300 yards receiving shouldn’t be considered overzealous.

Tyreek Hill falls well-short of his 2,000 yard goal, and that’s a good thing.

Again, every indication is that the Dolphins will strive for a much more balanced offense in 2023, and that doesn’t just extend to the running game.

The target gap between Hill and Waddle should narrow, and with the addition of Berrios in the slot, and an improved Wilson, it seems far-fetched for Hill to even replicate the 1,710 yard season he had a year ago. That’s also taking into account that Miami should see an increase in targets to their backfield.

While it would be fascinating to see Tyreek hit that benchmark, doing so would likely mean that the offense didn’t hit the mark in other areas, or they suffered significant enough injuries. The best thing for the offense is to become multi-dimensional and make it even harder for defenses to overly focus on one specific facet.

Quick hit hot-takes (that I actually believe in)…

-Tua plays all seventeen games, and with a new safety-net in Berrios, and an added dynamic in Achane, he puts together the season Dolfans have been waiting for. 4,500 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions is the floor for ‘Uce’, and would likely result in the long-term contract extension he, the team, and fans are hoping for.

-Jaylen Waddle officially hits superstardom, as the young surpasses the old-ish. The third-year pro is too talented, and too dynamic to not continue growing. With defenses continuing to emphasize Hill, I’d expect Waddle adds quite a few more plays like the 84-yard touchdown sprint against the Packers, to his highlight reel. Waddle: 95 rec, 1520 yds, 8 tds
Hill: 101 rec, 1410 yds, 9 tds
Berrios: 41 rec, 465 yds, 3 tds
Wilson: 30 rec, 345 yds, 4 tds

-Don’t forget the tight ends, even if the Dolphins might have! Smythe has proven to be a reliable player, not only as a blocker but as a possession receiver as well. While i wouldn’t expect him to see a significant increase in usage in the passing game, even with Mike Gesicki now in New England, the tight end is just too far down the target share list in this offense. Aside from Smythe, Kroft has had a very similar role over his career, but may be a tad more favorable redzone threat.
Smythe: 28 rec, 257 yds, 2 tds
Kroft: 23 rec, 230 yds, 3 tds

-The running back room is the toughest to predict, especialluy with Jeff Wilson on the IR to start the season, and Mostert now 31 years young and three years removed from playing a full season (he only missed one game last year). How McDaniel splits the carries is one of the more intriguing questions entering week one. Mostert should lead the team if he stays healthy, but he shouldn’t be expected to carry too heavy of a load. Will the undrafted rookie and training camp surprise Chris Brooks pick up Wilson’s slack? Ahmed has flashed as a runner in limited opportunities, but he’s not a pass-blocker and doesn’t offer anything different than what Mostert gives (who is a significantly better blocker). Plus, there’s Achane.
Mostert: 170 att, 799 yds, 4 tds
Brooks: 149 att, 700 yds, 6 tds
Achane: 83 att, 423 yds, 1 td
Ahmed: 30 att, 138 yds

The Miami Dolphins are still in the huddle as the clock ticks down on fourth-and-1.

Pressure Point: Dolphins give Bills a scare, but leave fans frustrated

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This is why they have playoffs, because there are no certainties in the NFL.

Not for the Los Angeles Chargers with a 27-0 lead, only to get swamped by an epic Jacksonville Jaguars comeback in a stunning 31-30 loss on Saturday.

For a while Sunday it looked like another Florida team might flip an improbable script with the Miami Dolphins turning a 17-0 deficit into a 24-20 lead, on the road with a third-string rookie quarterback against the highly favored Bills in their AFC wild-card game.

Ultimately, there was no Miami Miracle in Buffalo as what could have been the Dolphins’ greatest postseason comeback victory fell short 34-31.

While the effort and the scare they put into a bonafide Super Bowl contender was commendable, the ending was wrenching in a way that is characteristic of a franchise that never fails to string along its fans and leave them in agony.

This one will be remembered for the Dolphins’ final hopes fizzling after a delay-of-game penalty on fourth-and-short in the final two-and-a-half minutes.

Confusion on fourth-and-1

For all the good first-year coach Mike McDaniel did in getting the team to the playoffs for the first time in six years and within a whisker of upsetting a 14-point favorite, he will have to endure an offseason of bitter taste from questionable game management in the fourth quarter.

McDaniel repeatedly had trouble getting plays in to quarterback Skylar Thompson and the proper personnel package on the field in timely fashion. They had already burned all of their timeouts because of that issue.

This time there was no way to avoid the penalty. They were still in the huddle with five seconds left on the play clock.

So they went from needing less than a yard to fourth and a long five with 2:29 remaining.

On what would be Miami’s final offensive play, Thompson either didn’t see Tyreek Hill streaking open across the middle or the rush was on him too quick to make that throw. So Thompson looked to the right and was unable to connect with Mike Gesicki on a short pass. And that was that.

McDaniel said afterward that there was confusion with the officials on whether Salvon Ahmed had actually gotten the first down on the previous play.

“We thought we got the first down, so we were deploying some players for the first-and-10. And then it was articulated that it was fourth down,” McDaniel said in his postgame media session.

That was definitely a time when one of those previously squandered timeouts would have come in handy.

Whatever the reason, it made for an excruciating ending as the wind rushed out of the Dolphins’ season with a massive Pffft!

Efficiency in getting plays in and off is certainly an area for improvement as the Dolphins have often pushed the play clock to the final seconds this season. It became more of an issue Sunday with a rookie quarterback contending with a loud, hostile crowd.

Dolphins 0-for-4 since last playoff win

Bottom line, the Dolphins were one-and-done in the playoffs for the fourth time since they last won in the postseason 22 years ago.

They gave a much better accounting of themselves than in the previous three which were all routs by a combined score of 77-24.

It appeared like it would more of the same with Josh Allen and the Bills leading 17-0 early in the second quarter.

Turnovers had a lot to do with the arc of this game and everything to do with the Dolphins making a contest of it. Miami cashed in 18 points off three turnovers.
Allen came in with 14 touchdown passes and only one interception in his playoff career.

The Dolphins picked him off twice in the second quarter and forced him into a fumble that defensive lineman Zach Sieler scooped up for a go-ahead touchdown early in the third quarter.

The Bills regained the lead after converting a Thompson interception into a short touchdown drive.

But Thompson led an 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to bring Miami within three points with 10:53 remaining.

Thompson ended up completing 18 of 45 for 220 yards and one touchdown, with two interceptions and a passer rating of 44.7.

Would Tua Tagovailoa have changed wild-card outcome?

The rookie was often off target and slow getting passes off. But he didn’t get great help from his receivers, who had several notable drops.

Jaylen Waddle, in particular, looked like he was trying to catch a pot roast slipping off a greased platter with oven mitts until finally coming through with three catches in the fourth quarter.

Damar Hamlin, the Bills safety who needed to be resuscitated on the field in Cincinnati two weeks ago, watched on TV and tweeted following the game: “I have to give a huge shout out to the Dolphins. Made it a game. I’m so looking forward to more Bills Dolphins in the foreseeable future.”

Yes, the Dolphins bucked steep odds and made it closer than most of their fans may have hoped for. But the way it turned out left them feeling frustrated with the many mistakes, angry about the disorganization in game management and lamenting how the outcome could have been different with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa a healthy participant.

Unfortunately, health and availability has been elusive with Tagovailoa. Recurring concussions have put his long-term viability in question — the most recent head injury kept him out of the final two games of the regular season and the playoff.

Adam Schefter, of ESPN, reported Sunday that Tagovailoa “is expected to return as the Dolphins starting quarterback next season” and that he might have been cleared from concussion protocol had the Dolphins advanced in the postseason.

According to Schefter: “Medical professionals also are confident that Tagovailoa should be able to resume his NFL career next season, if not sooner, sources said.”

Like the outcome of Sunday’s game, that is just another uncertainty in the Miami Dolphins’ unending seasons of elusive hope.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Rookie Skylar Thompson will start for the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card game against the Bills.

Pressure Point: Dolphins face unenviable task in playoffs, challenging offseason

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The difference between a hit and a flop is often paper-thin in the NFL.

For the Miami Dolphins, the 2022 season swung on a 50-yard field goal attempt by Justin Sanders in the final seconds of the regular-season finale last Sunday against the New York Jets.

Essentially a coin flip. Heads, he makes it and the Dolphins remain alive for the playoffs. Tails, he misses and the season ends with a sickening thud of a six-game losing streak.

Given how Dolphins fortunes had eroded in the final weeks, I wasn’t even sure I wanted Sanders to succeed until the kick split the uprights and long-suffering Dolfans erupted with joy. They certainly deserved a sip of satisfaction after the steady diet of crap sandwiches they’ve been fed by this franchise in this millennium.

The reaction to skidding into the final AFC wild-card spot (with help from the Bills defeating the Patriots) confirmed that it is always preferable for you team to make the playoffs under any circumstances — especially when the alternative would have been the ultimate despair of the worst collapse in franchise history.
The season-ending thud may well come Sunday at Buffalo against the AFC East champion Bills — all but the most unabashedly optimistic Dolphins fans expect it. But let’s take a moment to toast the success these Dolphins did have in the 2022 season.

McDaniel pulled off wild card

First-year coach Mike McDaniel, who was courted by no other team last offseason, led Miami to its first playoff appearance since 2016. He produced a much-improved offense and coaxed a breakthrough season from Tua Tagovailoa before the quarterback’s latest concussion kept him out of the last two games of the regular season and Sunday’s playoff. (More on Tua in a moment).

Superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill was named on Friday to the Associated Press All-Pro team for the fourth time in his first season with Miami. Hill set Dolphins’ records with 119 receptions and 1,710 yards.

Hill was clearly the team’s MVP as he proved to be everything the Dolphins hoped when they traded five draft picks to Kansas City and signed him for $120 million over four years.

The big surprise and the Dolphins’ major success story of the year was undrafted cornerback Kader Kohou playing well enough to be recognized with a place on the NFL All-Rookie team by the analytics website Sports Info Solutions. Kohou held up admirably while being targeted 106 times, the most among defensive backs in the league, posting a highly respectable 80.7 passer rating.

Kohou helped fill the void of Byron Jones missing the entire season. Signing him undrafted out of Texas A&M-Commerce somewhat offsets the mistake of picking Noah Igbinoghene in the first round in 2020.

Dolphins’ young talent stands out

Encouraging for the future, this Dolphins team has more standout players than seen in Miami in years. Most of them are young.
Second-year receiver Jaylen Waddle led the league in yards per reception (18.1) on 75 catches. His 1,356 yards ranked seventh in the league and were third in Dolphins history.

Defensive lineman Christian Wilkins has improved progressively and in his fourth season was an absolute beast. His 98 tackles were the most by an NFL defensive lineman since 1994 and a Dolphins record.

Zach Sieler’s 70 tackles ranked fifth among defensive linemen. Sieler, notably, was a waiver claim in 2019.

Linebacker Jaelan Phillips made a significant transformation in his second season from a pass-rush specialist to solid every-down defender with major improvement against the run. Pro Football Focus ranked him among the top 10 edge players in the league.

Tagovailoa’s future prospects a mystery

Still, the Dolphins will face a much more uneasy offseason than would be expected of a playoff team. Tagovailoa’s hazy football future is the main reason for that.
In addition, the defense underachieved despite the efforts of Wilkins, Phillips, Sieler, Kohou and the midseason addition of linebackerBradley Chubb — cornerback Xavien Howard and safety Jevon Holland didn’t have outstanding seasons but remain cornerstones in the secondary.

Shortcomings of the defense, which ranked bottom-third in the league in allowing 23.5 points a game, will need to be addressed. Will that start with a change at defensive coordinator or will Josh Boyer return?

But the most vexing concern is Tagovailoa. He led the league with a passer rating of 105.5 but missed 4 ½ games while suffering two and possibly three concussions.

If Tua is cleared to return to football and wants to continue his career, he will return as the starting quarterback next season. Considering the recurrence of head injuries and the slow recovery from the most recent concussion, that is no certainty.

Skylar Thompson to start in wild card game at Buffalo

McDaniel said early this week that his only concern was Tagovailoa “getting to full health as a human being,” not his playing career.
On Friday, McDaniel confirmed that Tua is out for Sunday and rookie Skylar Thompson will start against the Bills.

As for Tua’s progress in concussion protocol, McDaniel said: “The current stage is the same as it was last. He’s been around and been good and I’m just worried about his day-to-day health. I’ll let you know when it does advance, but besides checking on him and how he’s doing, it’s a big-time life adjustment when you go from playing to being out.”

The question of longevity makes investing long-term in Tua a risky proposition for the Dolphins. They don’t even have a first-round draft pick in 2023.

Dolphins 13-point dogs vs. Bills

Meanwhile, they will have Thompson, a rookie seventh-round pick, making his third NFL start and first playoff appearance opposite Josh Allen and the Bills.
No wonder the Dolphins are the biggest underdogs in this weekend’s playoffs, with the Bills favored by 13 points.

Coincidentally, the Dolphins went into their previous playoff game with back-up Matt Moore starting in place of Ryan Tannehill and were blown out 30-12 at Pittsburgh at the end of the 2016 season.

Dolfans certainly have reason to feel trepidation. In three wild-card appearances since they last won a playoff game (2000 season), they were lopsided loser by a combined 77-24 against the Ravens (twice) and the Steelers).

Asked about the perception that the Dolphins don’t have a chance at Buffalo, McDaniel said Friday: “I’m very used — that doesn’t make me, personally, blink. This just in — no one expected me personally to do anything that I’ve ever done, really. I think a journey of an NFL player is very similar with the amount of competition there is and how the parity is what it is. I think most guys on NFL teams have been told they couldn’t. It’s a really good football team that we’re playing, so we probably agree with people in that regard. … If we think we’re pretty good as well or have a higher opinion than everybody else, that’s not everybody else’s fault.

“If you’re happy with your investment, you can live with the outcome, regardless of what it is.”

So smile, Dolfans, your team is in the playoffs. It doesn’t happen often. It usually turns out ugly. The roster has been hit hard by injuries, but so has every other team at this stage of the season. The NFL is a league of attrition and surprises.

The Dolphins have two of the best receivers in football and other talented players mentioned above. Maybe with a couple starts under his belt, Thompson will perform more like he showed in preseason than he has so far in games that count and show that he may be a viable option for the future.

By the way, Thompson will have one thing in common with Dan Marino. They are the only rookies to start at quarterback for the Dolphins in the playoffs.
Getting to the playoffs, by whatever means, isn’t nothing. Might as well take a peek.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Tua Tagovailoa will miss the Dolphins' game at New England and possibly more.

Pressure Point: Tua’s uncertain future puts Dolphins in a bind

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Maybe the Miami Dolphins will clinch that elusive wild card on Sunday. All they need is a win at New England — they’ve won four in a row against the Patriots — and a Jets loss at Seattle.

It would be a feel-good story with backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater leading his hometown team into the playoffs. But it would mask the reality of the star-crossed Dolphins, who don’t seem like a legitimate playoff team while reeling on a four-game losing streak and with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s future again clouded by another concussion.

They have gone from having the upper hand in the AFC East at 8-3 to clinging to the hope of the final wild card in the expanded playoffs.

They have a porous defense with an injury depleted secondary that ranks last in the league on the road — and they would be on the road for the playoffs.

But Tagovailoa’s latest concussion is the biggest reason for the Dolphins’ not so happy New Year.

Recurring concussions jeopardize Tua’s career

Tua’s unsteady December had already revived old questions about his ability to deliver at an elite level — he performed well at Buffalo but was poor to erratic in the other three losses.

It wasn’t even clear when he got hurt in last week’s loss to the Packers. His three interceptions in the fourth quarter sealed the Dolphins’ fate that day.

The two, and quite possibly three, concussions Tagovailoa has suffered this season are much more concerning for the immediate future of the franchise.

Durability has always been the main question about Tua. In college at Alabama it was lower body. With the Dolphins it’s been something every year. The recurring head injuries suggest his career may be on a short leash.

That farewell press conference, when a teary Tagovailoa steps to the microphone and says that in the interest of his own health and his family’s well being that he is done with football, could come at any time.

Maybe at the end of this season. Maybe after a couple more knocks to the head next season. With multiple injuries to his brain, Tua has certainly entered a danger zone.

Dolphins face offseason challenges

Tua may well return next week for the season finale against the Jets with a possible playoff start to follow. But uncertainty about the quarterback’s future puts the Dolphins in a predicament going forward.

They must decide by May whether to exercise Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option for 2024. Meanwhile, they are limited in resources if they decide he’s not the long-term solution they were banking on — or if his health prevents him from being that.

More from Five Reasons Sports: Three key for the Dolphins at New England

The Dolphins don’t have a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They will enter the offseason with less than $5 million in cap space.

Rookie Skylar Thompson, who impressed in extended opportunity in the preseason, has flopped so far in limited time during the regular season.

Dolphins’ season falling short of expectations

So for the moment the Dolphins’ fate is in the hands of journeyman Bridgewater, who has his own history of concussions.

With high winds expected Sunday at Gillette Stadium, the Dolphins would be wise to saddle up their running game and hope the defense can hold a not-great Patriots offense in check.

If they succeed in making it five in a row against the Belichicks and the Jets return winless from Seattle, it will be Miami’s first trip to the playoffs since the 2016 season.

That’s not nothing, but this season held the possibility of so much more just over a month ago when Tua was leading a five-game winning streak and hearing “MVP” chants at home.

The picture isn’t so rosy now, even with a possible playoff trip in store. The franchise may be encountering stronger headwinds just down the road.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Tua Tagovialoa was dramatically outplayed by Justin Herbert in the Dolphins' 23-17 loss to the Chargers.

Pressure Point: Tua Tagovailoa faces biggest career test at Buffalo

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The surprise wasn’t how well Justin Herbert carved up the Miami Dolphins defense in the Los Angeles Chargers’ 23-17 win Sunday night.

Herbert is that good. He’s been showing it since he arrived in the NFL in 2020.

The surprise was how poorly Tua Tagovailoa played for the second week in a row on the West Coast.

Once is a bad game. Twice in a row is a trend.

The trend runs deeper than two weeks, as Simon Clancy @siclancy points out in highlighting Tagovailoa’s 0-4 career record in consequential December/January games on the road: four touchdowns, six interceptions, 64.29 passer rating. Margin of defeat, just under 21 points.

The 34-3 drubbing in the penultimate game of last season (Jan. 2) at Tennessee choked out playoff hope built on a seven-game winning streak, and it came against Miami’s former long-time quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

Sunday was another of those oh-so-Dolphins humiliations with Herbert, the quarterback they passed up in the 2020 draft, throwing for 367 yards while Tagovailoa had a paltry 145 yards, 35.7 completion percentage and 65.3 passer rating on another abysmal off-kilter day.

Tua needs bounce-back game badly

Even the NFL rubbed salt in the wound with a snarky headline on its YouTube highlights video of the game (later removed): “Justin Herbert shows Miami what they could’ve had.”

Look, it’s been clearly evident that the Dolphins left the better quarterback on the table in 2020 when they drafted Tua at No. 5 and left Herbert for the Chargers to take at No. 6.

The questions about Tua were always about Tua himself and had nothing to do with Herbert: Could he stay healthy and productive, given his injury history and stature? Could the Dolphins win with him?

There’s always been the possibility both teams could have come out of that draft with franchise-caliber quarterbacks.

Durability remains an issue, but in his third season the view of Tagovailoa was finally trending in that direction. With the Dolphins on a five-game winning streak and Tagovailoa putting up sterling numbers for accuracy, efficiency and down-field connections there were chants of M-V-P, M-V-P.

Two puzzling, off-target performances later in losses at San Francisco and L.A. have undone a lot of the headway he was making — a lot of it coming against the likes of the Lions, Bears, Browns and Texans.

Dolphins stymied by Chargers’ scheme

The stumble against the 49ers’ league-leading defense could be shrugged off to some extent. The Chargers should have been prime for picking, though. They were missing six starters on defense, including two in the secondary. The previous week the Raiders’ Davante Adams burned them for 177 yards on eight receptions.

Chargers defensive-minded coach Brandon Staley stymied the Dolphins by throwing press coverage at the Dolphins’ speedy receivers (35 percent of the time, according to Next Gen Stats) and clogging the middle of the field that Tua and his receivers like to exploit. The Dolphins managed only 219 total yards.

Even Tyreek Hill, except for the 60-yard TD catch when Michael Davis got his feet tangled and fell, had a pedestrian receiving day. Jaylen Waddle was mostly MIA.

Dolphins rookie coach Mike McDaniel’s aura as an innovative offensive mind lost some luster Sunday. He didn’t adjust to counter the Chargers’ coverage scheme, and McDaniel’s vaunted zone-blocking running attack didn’t find any traction for the second consecutive game. He didn’t even give it much of a chance.

Dolphins’ playoff fortunes diminishing rapidly

Now a Dolphins season that held more promise than Dolfans have seen in years is taking on the trajectory of a lead balloon.
With the chilling prospect of a snowy Saturday night in Buffalo just ahead.

A win against either the 49ers or Chargers would have given the Dolphins the chance to regain command of the AFC East with a win over the Bills. Now they are likely playing for a wild card and another tough assignment on the road.

If that.

These Dolphins have more issues than Tua’s misfires the past two weeks. The defense has been victimized by less distinguished quarterbacks than Herbert — Brock Purdy and Zach Wilson, for instance. The addition of Brandon Chubb hasn’t brought a notable improvement to a unit that has been subpar all season.

While L.A. was pressing Miami receivers, Dolphins defensive coordinator Josh Boyer opted for a weird conservative alignment just before the half with the Chargers facing third-and-goal at the Miami 17. Eight Miami defenders were spread out near the goal line, and Austin Ekeler was able to follow an escort of blockers to the 1. Ekeler scored from there on fourth down and the Chargers took a 17-7 lead at the half.

There has certainly has been a lot to question lately about this Dolphins team that seemed bound to break the mold from a painful past. Fortunes pivot quickly in the NFL.

Tagovailoa said recently that last season he questioned himself, wondering, “Do I suck?”

That would be a bit harsh now, given his overall body of work this season.

There is one way to get his season trending in the right direction again. Snowy Buffalo awaits.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Tua Tagovailoa, with Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, had an uncharacteristically poor performance in the loss against San Francisco.

Pressure Point: Dolphins need Tagovailoa to bounce back like franchise QB

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This one was (mostly) on Tua, and he knew it.

“No one really to blame but myself,” Tua Tagovailoa said after he misfired early and often in the Miami Dolphins’ 33-17 loss Sunday at San Francisco. “It sucks that we didn’t come out and do what we wanted to do collectively. Obviously, it starts with me offensively.”

This was prime example of why a franchise quarterback is so essential to rise to the top in the modern NFL.

It’s what distinguishes the rare breed that can make everything right when everything is going wrong.

Like when your defense is getting picked apart by a third-string rookie quarterback who entered the league as Mr. Irrelevant. And when you’re sophisticated zone-blocking running game is getting schooled by the one it was modeled after. And you’re facing the top-rated defense in the league without your best offensive lineman.

That’s what the Dolphins needed against the 49ers and Tagovailoa failed to deliver in the first big test of the late-season playoff push.

The frustrating part is that it was within his reach. There were ample opportunities that were missed, particularly in the first half. Receivers were open for significant gains. Pass protection was often better than may have been expected in the absence of cornerstone left tackle Terron Armstead.

Time and again Tua missed the open man. Badly.

Tagovailoa uncharacteristically inaccurate

The familiar Tua touch got misplaced somewhere on the way to Santa Clara. Several throws were too high for leaping receivers. Others fell short or off line.

It was so glaring that you started to wonder, who kidnapped Tua?

Particularly in the first half when he completed only 8 of 18 for 162 yards.

Tagovailoa came into the game second in the NFL in completion percentage 71 percent (on pace for a Dolphins season record). He finished Sunday completing just 54.6 percent of his attempts (18 of 33).

There were also interceptions on back-to-back possessions in the third quarter. The first came when intended target Jeff Wilson Jr. fell and ended Tua’s string of 193 passes without a pick.

His very next pass was also intercepted. The picks led to a pair of 49ers field goals.

“I missed guys. There is also some miscommunication of where guys should be breaking. But a poor performance on my part,” Tagovailoa said. “It’s hard to win a game when you’re not on your P’s and Q’s and you’re not dialed in.”

Third-string rookie Purdy golden for 49ers

For whatever reason, he wasn’t the accurate, efficient Tua we’re accustomed to seeing. Maybe he was rushing his throws in anticipation of the 49ers relentless pass rush.

Understandable with Nick Bosa bringing the heat all day. Bosa, the NFC’s Defensive Player of the Month for November, got a great start on December with three sacks, four quarterback hits, a forced fumble and two tackles for loss.

The NFL is a test of adversity, and the 49ers handled theirs much better with Brock Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 draft, stepping in after Jimmy Garoppolo exited on a cart with a season-ending foot injury and outshining would-be MVP candidate Tagovailoa.

Purdy had a huge conversion on under pressure on third-and 10 on touchdown drive just before the half that put San Francisco ahead to stay.

Games tend to turn on pivotal moments. Even with so much going awry for the Dolphins, the tide seemed to be swinging in their favor when they forced a punt on the first possession of the second half and an unsportsmanlike penalty on the return set up them up in 49ers territory. They advanced farther on a roughing-the-passer call against Bosa and then Raheem Mostert went 18 yards on what would have been Miami’s longest run of the game. But a phantom holding call on Robert Hunt negated it. Tua threw the first interception on the next play.

Loss not devastating to Dolphins’ playoff chances

The result certainly wasn’t all on Tagovailoa. He finished with 295 yards and two touchdowns, including a 45-yard toss to Tyreek Hill that pulled the Dolphins within a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. But it wasn’t the elite-level performance the Dolphins needed against an opponent like the 49ers.

It happens to the best of them. Patrick Mahomes fell short of his standards Sunday in the Chiefs’ loss to the Bengals.

Tua looked like a franchise QB in the early season comeback against the Ravens and in some dazzling efforts against lesser opponents.

The Dolphins need him to produce as that level in the vital games ahead, starting next Sunday night against the Justin Herbert and the Chargers. A win would enable the Dolphins to regain command of the AFC East the following week at Buffalo against Josh Allen and the Bills.

A very tall order indeed, made more difficult by the game being moved up a day to Saturday, Dec. 17.

It’s the sort of challenge that separates a franchise quarterback from a pretender.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns