GUTS CHECK: Balanced attacks, Robinson rolling, Sixers ahead

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won vs Detroit 117-108
  • Won at Cleveland 108-97
  • Won vs New Orleans 109-94

Taking Care of Business

Last week we discussed the need for the Heat to emerge 6-1 or 5-2 in this next 7 game stretch. A 3-0 undefeated week has them tracking nicely to accomplish that feat.

And wow, has this been fun to watch. The ball zipping around on offense, finishing possessions with swished threes, forcing turnovers that lead to more buckets, has made this 9-3 more entertaining than maybe 9-3 should feel. The team just looks, interacts and performs as cohesively as any group has since the Big 3 era. That’s a big deal.

Balanced Attack

Last week, we saw quality contributions from pretty much everyone. Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo – the list goes on and on. Actually, wait a minute, do not pass go, click on this link to read The Launching Pad by Nekias Duncan. No, seriously, abort this column and read TLP.  We are lucky to have him breaking down Miami Heat basketball. Nekias is a beast.

I think we can all agree that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been the two main pillars for this team so far. That is such a welcome sight. It can be argued that this duo has been the most effective two-way duo in the entire Eastern Conference.

 

Conceptually at least, Justise Winslow has been the most viable candidate to complete a trio that would complement each other gracefully.

As we know, (even though it feels like we really don’t know very much) Justise Winslow is still out with a concussion. This has forced others to continually step up.

There is something to be said for the Heat’s early season reality. The third wheel has been unpredictable moment to moment, never mind game to game. It has always been someone different depending on the matchups. One night it’s Nunn, next it’s Dragic. Tyler Herro here, Chris Silva there.

This feels more sustainable when you consider it isn’t solely based on one player carrying the load or the team shooting the lights out at an unbelievable clip. I know it sounds cliché but this is a prototypical team effort. Amazing what happens when one of the best coaches in the league gets a roster that fits.

Player to Watch

Duncan Robinson is further along than I think any of us could have predicted. Uneven play to start the preseason and the first week of the regular season had Robinson as a player that many Heat fans called to be removed from the rotation.

However, it appears Robinson is in this rotation to stay. His combination of deadly shooting, size and passable defense have proven to be a net positive.

Team sources have maintained to me since before Opening Night that they were prepared to find minutes for Robinson, they see him as a player that can have a Jason Kapono like gravitational pull that helps surrounding scoring threats.

Although he may never get to the 49-50% from deep as Kapono did in his short Heat stint, Robinson is currently attempting double the amount per game (5.8 v. 3.1) and shooting 54% from the corners. If Robinson can provide the type of gravity that players like Kapono and Ellington have in years past, on a team that shares the ball like this one, it may prove to be an indispensable safety valve all season.

In 28 MPG last week Robinson averaged 12.3 ppg, going 9/21 from behind the arc (42.9%). He also chipped in on the defensive side, netting 4 steals which was more than his total in the first 10 games combined.

Currently on pace to come within striking distance of 200 3PT FGM, it’s safe to say Robinson has seized his increased minutes in the absence of Winslow and others.

The Philly Game

Between now and the next edition of GUTS CHECK, Jimmy and the Heat will visit the Sixers. I cannot wait for that game. Mark your calendars folks, Saturday November 23rd at 7:30 pm EST. Process versus Culture in the flesh.

Jimmy versus a hostile Philly crowd, with this group of dogs behind him. Easily the early favorite for the game Heat fans are looking forward to most thus far.

Who knows, maybe Jimmy will also put in a good word with Embiid as a fit next to Bam right?

How on earth did that game not get scheduled for national television? Flex schedule anyone?

Davis: Dolphins must draft wisely, not focus on one player

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The most significant development of the weekend for the Dolphins occurred far from Hard Rock Stadium.

Matter of fact, nothing was gained in the desultory 37-20 loss to the Bills on Sunday, not even in relation to next year’s draft. At 2-8, the Dolphins remain positioned to pick fourth behind the Bengals, Redskins and Giants.

It is pure speculation what that means in the wake of the devastating injury to Alabama quarterback Tua Tagavailoa on Saturday.

#TankForTua has given way to #PrayForTua.

One can only hope that Alabama team orthopedic surgeon Dr. Lyle Cain’s optimistic report following surgery on Tua’s right hip Monday in Houston proves accurate. Cain said in a post-op statement: “Tua’s prognosis is excellent, and we expect him to make a full recovery.”

Whether or not a full recovery equates to Tua being able to perform at the level of his brilliant collegiate career, which ended abruptly on one unfortunate landing, won’t be known for many months.

Dolphins news: DeVante Parker turned back the clock Sunday

And it is immaterial how his health may affect Dolphins draft plans.

As an observer, I am more interested in athletes than teams. The special ones are a treasure. So I’m rooting for Tua foremost — for his sake but also for the hope of seeing his talent blossom in the NFL regardless of what uniform he might wear.

Comeback complicated for Tua

Whether he will get that opportunity remains to be seen.

The comments of Dr. Louis Levitt, in a report by CBS Sports, provide an indication of the complex variables of Tua’s injury — a dislocated hip with a fracture to the posterior wall — and the recovery process he faces. A similar injury ended Bo Jackson’s NFL career.

Levitt, vice president and secretary for The Centers for Advanced Orthopaedics in Washington, D.C., told CBS Sports: “… the perfect scenario, the ball is back in the socket, there are no loose fragments in the socket, it is a single piece of the socket that can easily be put back. He doesn’t get any complications and then, if all the Gods shine down on him, he then can probably get back to playing and retain his professional potential within a year.”

Again, the primary concern is for the well being of a young athlete whose future has been clouded by an injury that is rare even in the violent sport he plays.

As it relates to the Dolphins, it illuminates the folly of trying to tailor the fortunes — or misfortunes — of an entire season with the aim of being in position to draft a particular player.

This most confusing Dolphins season, which had some fans rooting for losses to improve draft position,  has gotten more so.

Already some Dolfans are shifting focus to LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, while others want the team to take a chance on Tua making that full recovery.

All of which is premature and wasted energy. It will be weeks before Tua is permitted to put weight on his surgically repaired hip and months before he can try to attempt football maneuvers. As a junior, he may not even enter the 2020 NFL draft.

Houtz special: Despite injury, Dolphins should draft Tagovailoa

What about Kap?

If you want to speculate, why not throw the name of Colin Kaepernick into the mix? The controversial exile quarterback, showed in a special workout Saturday that he is able as well as eager to get back into the league.

The bottom line is, in stripping down the roster, Dolphins GM Chris Grier has accumulated a load of draft picks, including three first-round choices in 2020.

He will have ample opportunity to address some of their many needs, including a quarterback. And with an estimated $117 million in cap space ahead of next season, there will be flexibility in signing free agents to fill other needs.

The one thing Sunday’s one-sided loss to the Bills underscored was how widespread Miami’s needs are. The Dolphins can’t run (23 yards on 13 carries, ouch!) or stop the run (168 yards, 4.9 per carry allowed). They can’t protect the quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick sacked seven times) or muster a pass rush (zero sacks of Josh Allen).

Rather than pinning hopes on one presumed savior QB, it will come down to choices — as it always does.

Thus the concern is not that a couple of wins have taken the Dolphins out of the running for the first overall pick. It is that too often in the past, they have simply made the wrong choices.

Tony Capobianco photo gallery from Dolphins’ loss to the Bills

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Launching Pad: Nunn’s buckets, Butler’s passing, Bambidextrous

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 9-3 (3-0, 2nd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 107.7 (113.6)

• Defensive Rating: 101.1 (102.7)

• Net Rating: plus-6.5 (plus-10.9)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.7 (64.4)

• Pace: 102.15 (97.5)

• Time of Possession: 14.3 seconds (14.6)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard

• Minutes: 11

• Offensive Rating: 117.4

• Defensive Rating: 60.0

• Net Rating: plus-57.4

• True-Shooting Percentage: 68.7

• Pace: 107.66

The Big Number: 1.434

Roughly 1/8 of the way through the NBA season, the Miami Heat remain one of the best shooting clubs in the league. They rank fourth in three-point percentage (38.4), and have five players shooting well above league with moderate-or-better volume.

Meyers Leonard is shooting a blistering 61.9 percent from deep, which makes it even more perplexing that he’s only averaging 1.9 attempts on the year. The man took four (4) threes this week!

What makes the shooting scary is that it’s come on the back of good looks. The Heat are the most efficient team in the NBA on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. They’re generating 1.434 points per possession on those looks via Synergy. A 48.8 percent clip on those shots pace the league by nearly three percentage points.

Your primary culprit: Duncan Robinson. He’s an absurd 19-of-26 (!!!) on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. When you combine that with his mostly-fine defense, it’s becoming harder to make the case that he should return to the bench when Justise Winslow returns.

Weekly Trends

1. Kendrick Nunn keeps shooting

Nunn has had an absolute roller coaster of a season so far. He’s been historic, borderline unplayable, and sneaky good all in a three-week stretch. Just look at these splits.

First five games: 22.4 points on 17.0 shots, 52/48/100 shooting split

Next four games: 9.3 points on 11.0 shots, 34/19/60 shooting split

Last three games: 21.7 points on 17.0 shots, 51/43/80 shooting split

If there’s been one source of consistency from Nunn, it’s been his willingness to take shots when he feels they’re makable.

To his credit, Nunn has been one of the NBA’s best volume pick-and-roll threats. Among 55 players that have logged at least 90 pick-and-roll possessions (passes included), Nunn ranks 9th in efficiency (1.065 PPP). He’s ahead of guys like LeBron James (1.052), D’Angelo Russell (1.032), Kyrie Irving (1.008), James Harden (1.0), and Trae Young (0.983).

Nunn has the profile of a three-level scorer so far. He’s converting roughly 65 percent of his shots at the rim, 47.4 percent of his middies, and 41.2 percent of his above-the-break threes. His ability to make shots with forward momentum — pull-up jumpers, floaters, hang-in-the-air layups — have made him difficult to defend with a head of steam, especially in transition.

 

 

Nunn’s a hot-and-cold bucket-getter at this stage. Luckily for the Heat, he’s running hot right now.

2. Point Jimmy

Who the heck is this guy?

When the Heat added Butler, they were expecting to add a bonafide number scoring option. Through nine games, Butler only has one 25-plus point outing under his belt. His 18.4 scoring average, if it holds, would be the lowest it’s been since the 2013-14 season.

Yet, the vibe right now is that his passive style is intentional.

Butler is averaging a career-high 7.2 assists, well above his previous high of 5.5 in 2016-17. He’s made it a point to empower the players surrounding him. It’s why Nunn can afford to shoot until his arms fall off. It’s why Bam Adebayo can stretch himself as an intermediate threat.

Via NBA.com’s tracking data, Adebayo and Nunn are Butler’s favorite targets, receiving 11.7 and 9.8 passes per game from him respectively. Adebayo is converting 61.5 percent of his shots off of Butler passes, while Nunn is boasting a 50/50 shooting split.

Butler is spreading the wealth, and doing so in a myriad of ways. He’s operated as the post hub of Miami’s split action sets, run pick-and-rolls, engineered transition opportunities, and found guys in scramble situations.

 

 

At a certain point, Butler will have to assert himself more as a scorer. For now, though, it’s hard to argue with the process or the results.

3. Bam’s off-hand work

Speaking of assertiveness, let’s give a quick hat-tip to Adebayo for doing a little bit of everything on offense. I talked about him in this space last week so there isn’t need to rehash everything. One thing that I missed was his off-hand improvement.

It appears Adebayo has made a concerted effort to become an ambidextrous finisher. Before the Heat’s matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday, I made a compilation of all of his left-handed finishes this season.

He only logged one shot attempt with his left on Saturday, a missed dunk off of a lob. Still, a 7-of-15 clip (46.7 percent) for a big that struggled with non-dunk finishes with either hand last year is something to build on.

Set Play of the Week

Runnin’ in circles

It feels like the Heat are adding in a new off-ball screening wrinkle every week. The play I wanted to focus in on looks like their post split action flipped on its head. Instead of going north-south, the Heat are working east-west beyond the arc.

 

 

The Heat busted out this bad boy a few times against the Detroit Pistons. The logic is sound: let’s put stress on Detroit’s weak perimeter defenders until they make a mistake.

This play gives off the look of staggered screen action for Robinson (running off two angled picks), but then Robinson curls inside. This serves as the first read. If the Pistons don’t switch, that will leave Luke Kennard trailing Robinson, and Bruce Brown following Nunn over a screen from Adebayo. With Nunn being a plus-shooter, Andre Drummond would have to stay high to take away a pull-up triple.

Of course, the Pistons switch, so the Heat flow into part two of the action. Nunn is still scheduled to come off the Adebayo screen, but with the switch and Kennard’s positioning, he isn’t able to come off cleanly. But thanks to Kennard essentially face-guarding, Nunn is able to reverse course, creating a 2-on-1 on the other side of the screen.

Brown sees the Nunn-Robinson screen coming and tries to call out the switch, but by then it’s too late. A push-off from Robinson creates an extra foot or two of space. Butler feeds Robinson, and he drills the bomb.

Improv is fun, folks.

Alabama Athletics

Houtz Special: Despite injury, Dolphins should draft Tagovailoa

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Despite a season-ending injury, the Miami Dolphins should still have significant interest in Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tank for Tua

For as long as we can remember, Tank for Tua has been the preferred plan by most Dolphins’ fans.  And truth is, after starting the season 0-7 it was the only thing fans had to look get excited for. But like everything that happens with this team, nothing ever goes according to plan.

So, of course the Dolphins won Tua straight games and looked to be eliminated from the #Tankovailoa sweepstakes.

On one hand, this was a good thing.  Because it showed promise in Brian Flores and the rest of Miami’s coaching staff.  After all, they have done an outstanding job developing players, and have remained competitive despite an XFL-caliber roster.

Unfortunately, winning games means they would miss out on the quarterback they were believed to have their hearts set on.  Sure, there were alternative methods to achieve this goal, but they would be extremely costly. But again, expect the unexpected.

Flash forward to Saturday. With just under four minutes to play in the second quarter of a commanding 35-7 first-half lead over Mississippi State, Tagovaiola landed hard on his right hip. Several reports said he was unable to walk and was heard “screaming in agony”.  Later, we would find out from an team doctor that it was a hip dislocation, which would end his once promising season.

We can all sit here and speculate on who is at fault.

Maybe we can blame Nick Saban for not taking his star QB out sooner.  Perhaps he should have sat him all together, in a game many believed ‘Bama would win handily.

Then again, maybe it’s Tua’s fault, for wanting to be a team leader and play – despite the ankle injury – and prove to the world he is that damn good.

Nevertheless, hindsight suggests this mistake was costly.  Not only for Alabama’s playoff aspirations but for Tua, who was expected to enter the 2020 NFL Draft as the potential #1 overall pick.

Now neither is expected to happen.

Where do the Dolphins go from here?

Obviously, the Dolphins still head into the 2020 NFL draft with a war chest of draft picks-and still have aspirations of finding their next franchise QB.  Could they take Oregon’s Justin Herbert? Maybe, Georgia QB Jake Fromm? Perhaps they draft Jordan Love or Jalen Hurts to develop a year, with hopes of being the guy in 2021? Or maybe, they stay the course and draft Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa.

That’s right, folks.

The 2020 QB Class is loaded with plenty of potential talent. But with potential, comes uncertainty. And no one can sit here and honestly say, they know what is going to come of the aforementioned QBs.

So, why not stay the course?  Why not, draft the QB the Dolphins had their eyes on all along?

Many years ago, Miami’s medical staff made the decision to sign Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees, and that decision still haunts this fanbase until this very day. So sure, maybe the Dolphins’ medical staff makes another grave mistake, but at what expense?

Why pass on Tua in a draft where Miami currently has THREE first-round draft picks? In fact, most draft picks are nothing more than a gamble anyway, so why not gamble on one of the most talented players at the most important position in football?

In a strange way, the injury might have actually helped the Dolphins’ chances of landing Tagovailoa. Because prior to the injury, many believed he was a surefire top-5 draft pick. A player that if Miami wants to get, they would need to move heaven and earth to do so.  Now, they can win a few more games in 2020 and select the Alabama QB with the first of their day one draft picks.

Conclusion

According to AL.com, ‘sources’ believe the Alabama QB could be ready to play football in 6-8 months.

Obviously, this is all speculation. But if the report are true, I would have no problem with Miami selecting Tagovailoa with the first of their three first-round draft picks.  Joe Burrow is good but in my opinion, there is no better QB in the 2020 NFL draft than Tua. And if the Dolphins finally  want to get out of the 7-9 hell they have found themselves in since Marino’s retirement, they will take the chance.  Tagovailoa can sit a year and learn behind Fitpatrick or whatever other veteran QB the Dolphins deem fit. But they owe it to themselves, to their loyal fanbase, to draft the best QB in the country.

That QB to me is Tua Tagovailoa.

This article was written by Josh Houtz (@Houtz) and he really, really wants the Dolphins to draft Tua Tagovailoa

Sights & Sounds: Hurricanes Basketball Beats Quinnipiac 80-52

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The Mourning Edition: Miami Heat’s Winning Time Is Coming Early

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Welcome to the first dispatch of The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The Miami Heat shouldn’t be breathing this easy.

Not when they’re playing faster than any team in franchise history. Not when they’re incorporating a host of newcomers, including every-night starter Kendrick Nunn and second-team-minutes-per-game leader Tyler Herro. Not when they’re already working around a number of absences, both for injury reasons and…let’s just say otherwise.

That’s enough to tire any team out; yes, even one that bills itself as the Association’s “best-conditioned, hardest-working…” you know the rest.

But the Heat aren’t wheezing in the slightest. They keep running opponents off the floor, usually shortly after the opening tip gets tossed.

They’ve already had their most lopsided quarter in franchise history, when they amassed a 46-14 first-frame advantage over a Rockets team on a 60-win pace. That was the most extreme example of their out-of-the-gate sprints, but their early execution has been so precise, world-class surgeons should take not.

Their first-half net efficiency rating is an NBA-best plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions. No one else is clearing double digits, and only three other teams sit north of plus-7.5. Their assist percentage through the first 24 minutes is an absurd 71.3. To put that number in context, the Golden State Warriors paced the category last season at 66.8.

They have top-six efficiency marks on both ends through the first two frames. No other team can make that claim, and only the Milwaukee Bucks—last season’s wins leader—also land in the top 10 on each end.

Obviously, there are two halves to a game, and once we expand to full-game statistics, Miami goes from the NBA’s best team to one of its best. (If you have to downgrade, that’s the best way to do it, right?) The team’s actual net rating is plus-5.8, which is “only” tied for fifth.

That says two things about this squad.

The first is that it can be really, really good. The Heat are playing connected basketball at both ends—score one for #TheCulture—and basically everyone inside of the rotation seems comfortable in his role and capable of executing it.

“I know what championship basketball looks and feels like. I’ve been a part of some championship teams,” Nunn said. “The culture here is just for that.”

This also means the Heat haven’t been as effective after intermission.

Frankly, they’ve rarely needed to be. They’re steamrolling lesser clubs so early that they’re able to sleepwalk Big Three-style through second halves. Battling complacency and boredom—and perhaps tired legs lately with more injuries popping up—Miami hasn’t always stepped on the necks of opponents after knocking them down.

This group is good enough that its first punches are landing with a haymaker’s force, so even two-quarters-and-change of effort and intensity has been good enough to dispatch bottom feeders. The Heat are one of only six teams with an undefeated record against sub-.500 teams.

Still, Miami can’t count on 24-minute routs always being enough, even if it has fired up a few victory cigars at halftime already.

“NBA basketball games are long,” Erik Spoelstra said. “And you have to play all the way through to the end.”

Spo’s right. It’s a tedious, nit-picky process, but letting off the gas too much can prove problematic.

At the same time, it’s the middle of November. That the Heat are even encountering this problem already is incredible, and the fact it’s perhaps emerging as an early focus says everything you need to know about this start.

Finding a killer instinct is one of the final steps of in building a basketball juggernaut. Miami revamped its roster this summer and has reshuffled the rotation already in-season (multiple times over). To be this far ahead of the learning curve at this stage of the game with this many moving parts is a testament to Pat Riley’s vision, Spo’s guidance, Jimmy Butler’s leadership and the culture-infused cohesiveness this core has created.

If the Heat continue staying a step or two ahead, then the ceiling keeps rising and wildest dreams become expectations, if not eventual realities.

Inter Miami: con nuevos jugadores, pero sin DT

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Bruno Gómez, de 90+Cinco (Cinco Razones Deportes Network), analiza la situación actual del Inter Miami, que ha ido poco a poco anunciando a sus nuevos jugadores esta semana a través de sus redes sociales, pero que aún no ha asomado nada de quién será el director técnico del equipo, que debuta en Marzo de 2020 en la MLS.

Jugadores anunciados esta semana:

– Víctor Ulloa (mediocampista)

– Drake Callender (guardameta)

– Jay Chapman (mediocampista)

– Grant Lilliard (defensor)

 

WATCH: Dolphins coach Brian Flores calls media on the carpet

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Every once in a while, the media receives pushback from those they interview. Reporters in charge of interviewing Bill Belichick and Adam Gase know what that’s like, in different ways. On Thursday, however, a certain member of the Miami Dolphins media got called on the carpet by coach Brian Flores.

And when we say called out, we mean like a middle school student caught whispering to the kid next to him kind of called out. At the end of the press conference, the Sun Sentinel’s Safid Deen laughed at something coach Flores was saying. Flores then cut himself off, turned to Deen, and asked him what he thought was so funny. The exchange can be found at the end of this video.

Clearly, Flores doesn’t find the concept of keeping a cool head to be amusing. What is amusing, admittedly, is listening to Deen try and explain himself. Like he had to explain to the class why he was laughing during the lecture. Unfortunately, the video makes it hard to hear Deen’s response.

Fortunately, the Dolphins transcribed the event as it played out. When asked to explain why he thought it was funny, Deen said this:

“I don’t know. We asked about Shaq Calhoun a couple weeks ago. I mean, we didn’t ask about Shaq Calhoun a couple weeks ago – he came up unsolicited – so it’s nice to hear you want your players to kind of keep an even head about everything.”

The incident in question happened a few weeks ago, when Flores made rookie Shaq Calhoun inactive in response to what Flores called the ‘rookie wall.’ Clearly, Brian Flores didn’t think it was worth laughing over.

Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for six years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung

Dolphins Locker Room Report: Nov. 13

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