Buckets to Biscayne: What Jimmy Butler Brings to Heat’s Defense

/0 Comments/in /by

It took a nerve-wrecking three-week rodeo with the Minnesota Timberwolves that eventually fell apart. A few months later, a three-team trade with the Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks blew up over a bad game of Telephone. It took the Portland Trail Blazers, the Los Angeles Clippers, and Tress Way-level punting of sleep for the Miami Heat to finally land Jimmy Butler.

But he’s here now. Officially.

We’ve talked plenty about the actual trade, and probably ugly-cried over Josh Richardson’s wholesomeness going to Philly, but that’s not what this piece is for. We’re here to talk about the man himself.

What does he do? How well does he do it? More importantly: Just how much can he help the Heat?

When I first started on this piece, I quickly realized it was going to run long, buddy. There’s so much to like about Jimmy Butler, professional basketball player. For your sake, and in the name of maximizing #clicks, I decided it made much more sense to turn a super profile into a two-part breakdown. We’ve already looked at what Butler brings to the table offensively. Now, let’s talk about the other end of the floor.

On-Ball Defense

This is what Peak Jimmy Butler looked like in 2017-18.

First, let’s admire Devin Booker being stuffed simply because it isn’t Justise Winslow.

On a more serious note, this is an incredible sequence. In, like, six seconds, Butler:

  • tracks Booker around a pair of screens
  • closes out before Booker even thinks about taking a corner three
  • regains his balance and stays chest-to-chest with Booker on the drive
  • contests with outside hand without falling for the pump fake
  • strips the ball on the way up

Effort. Physicality. Discipline. Disruption. That’s what Butler was. He put on his hard hat, laced up his boots, and got to work. You may have scored on Butler, but he was really going to make you earn it.

(I wonder how many more cliches I can fit in here.)

That, uh, is not the Butler we saw last season. There was a noticeable slip from his elite level. Part of that was general effort; he wasn’t necessarily a mess in Minnesota before being traded, but he didn’t defend with the same verve. Injuries played a part. A slight adjustment to Philadelphia’s switchier scheme also had Butler a little out of sorts.

Among 42 players that defended at least 12.0 shots per game, Butler ranked 40th in field goal percentage differential (+1.1), via Second Spectrum tracking data. In simpler terms, opponents shot roughly one percentage point better than their average when defended by Butler.

For what it’s worth, those numbers basically flipped during the postseason. Opposing players converted 34.5 percent of their shots with Butler as the nearest defender, a full 11.0 percentage points lower than their average.

Now for the obvious caveat: defensive metrics can be wonky, to be kind. Butler wasn’t as bad as the first number, nor was he as good as the second. As is the case with most things, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Butler absolutely had a down(right awkward) year. I would expect that to rebound some this season. Not many wings in the league move their feet as quickly or as well as he does when locked in. His hands are nothing short of elite — your pocket can get picked in an instant. Most importantly, he knows how to throw off a ball-handler’s rhythm without fouling. Even in an off year for him, those flashes were plentiful.

Among the 26 players that have averaged 1.5 steals over the last three seasons (min. 2500 minutes played), Butler has averaged the least amount of fouls (1.6). In fact, he and Kawhi Leonard are the only players to average more steals than fouls in that time span. If you want to go with “stocks” (steals + blocks), you can add Draymond Green, Trevor Ariza, and John Wall to the list.

Butler’s combination of length, quickness, and strength allows him to defend three positions at an elite level — four when teams downsize.

Smaller guards can be swallowed up — or flat-out bullied — when Butler steps up to the plate:

Like-sized wings don’t have much luck against him, either. Poor Kevin Huerter thought he could slip by Butler with a routine hesi’:

NOPE.

Here’s Butler matched up with Rudy Gobert after a missed shot. Gobert seems to be looking for a DHO recipient, which gives Butler ample time to flash his hands and poke the ball away:

Versatility aside, Butler serves as a glove-in-hand fit in Miami’s drop coverage scheme. At his best, Butler pesters guys over screens and takes away windows.

Butler is the kind of defender head coach Erik Spoelstra loves. He gives Miami another player that you can throw on an opponent’s best scorer without having to send extra help.

Off-Ball Defense

If you thought Butler was hard to deal with on the ball, trying passing the ball in his vicinity.

Actually, maybe you shouldn’t do that:

First, let’s acknowledge just how poor this pass is from Wall. He floats that sucker. It’s not quite an Eli Special, but it’s in the family. A second cousin, maybe?

Still, the pick by Butler gives you a glimpse of the kind of range and discipline he has. He digs down on the Wall drive then rotates back to Jeff Green. He navigates around Kelly Oubre (and the trailing JJ Redick) while staying attached to Green, all while keeping his arm up in the passing lane. The pass eventually comes, and Butler is in position to make the play.

If we’re going to stick with loose football analogies here, Butler reminds me a lot of Earl Thomas. There’s obviously a “pay me or trade me” parallel to be made from earlier in the season, but both guys are cerebral, heat-seeking missiles in space. It is amazing watching them diagnose the action in front of them before going balls-to-the-wall to cause mayhem. They’re very much calculated risk takers; because they’re so smart, they rarely get burned.

Here’s a Thomas-like play from Butler:

Celtics big man Daniel Theis establishes inside position in semi-transition with T.J McConnell fronting him. Kyrie Irving sees Theis (because how could you not?) and tries to loft in the entry pass. Unfortunately for Irving and Thies, Butler already knows where things are heading. He flies in from the weakside and knocks the ball loose at its apex. An easy-two turns into a change-of-possession in the blink of an eye.

It’s one thing to be a smart or instinctive defender. It’s another thing entirely to be both, and that’s exactly what Butler is. Best believe Spo is going to have fun watching Butler roam all over the place.

There’s a non-zero chance the Heat are going to trot out a lineup of Justise Winslow, Butler, Derrick Jones Jr., Kelly Olynyk, and Bam Adebayo this season. I have no idea how that unit will score, but God bless whoever tries to score against them.

Better days ahead for the Miami teams?

/0 Comments/in /by

While the sports world has been buzzing and all eyes on Los Angeles with the Clippers, Lakers, Rams, and Chargers all being relevant, maybe it’s time to start looking at the other coast.

The Miami Dolphins and the Miami Heat may  not too far behind, after offseasons that have them set up to compete for titles in coming years.

You just need to be patient.

Both teams have built solid foundations going forward.

Let’s look at the Dolphins, first. Finally, they have made some moves to build a solid foundation, from hiring new head coach Brian Flores to grabbed a low risk high reward quarterback in Josh Rosen, to accumulating a dozen selections in the 2020 draft, while possibly adding two others due to compensatory picks for Cam Wake and Ja’Wuan James. The Dolphins are projected to have over $100 million in cap space in 2020, with tons of youth on both sides of the ball already.

They just drafted four guys who can start on opening day (Christian Wilkins, Michael Deiter, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Isaiah Prince). And on defense, they have promising young players at every level (Davon Godchaux, Jerome Baker, Xavien Howard, Minkah Fitzpatrick).

On offense, Laremy Tunsil is one of the game’s best young left tackles. There are two good young running backs in Kenyan Drake and Kallen Ballage who complement each other well. The tight end, Mike Gesicki, could have a breakout season in Chad O’Shea’s offense because it will create mismatches for him. And then there’s DeVante Parker, who still has a chance to show something, if he can stay healthy.

Now we turn our eyes to the Miami Heat who in many ways have had the best offseason in the NBA acquiring Jimmy Butler and getting rid of the Hassan Whiteside contract. The first round pick, Tyler Herro, has been impressive, as much as anyone in summer league and certainly better than Heat fans expected. Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson appear ready to contribute. KZ Okpala, who we have yet to see, certainly is interesting: he’s 6-foot-9 and can shoot and handle. Justise Winslow, Derrick Jones Jr, and Bam Adebayo are still here, even after the Butler deal. And so is Goran Dragic, who can be moved to position the Heat for another star. They have relieved salary cap for the coming years specifically 2021 and found a player with star potential in Herro.

We can’t say we didn’t see this coming given Pat Riley’s track record over the last 25 years and he always had a master plan needless to say in a wide open NBA and especially a wide open Eastern Conference.

Miami has good young players and will add another superstar to the team in the coming years and will win a championship by 2022.

Yes, we said it.

And we can say this:

Both the Dolphins and Heat have solid foundation going forward and you can expect the foundations to pay off in a lot of wins and some championships. For the first time, since the Dolphins have been a bit slow, both teams have a clear direction going forward from top to bottom. The future is bright in Miami. Even if it didn’t seem that way until recently.

 

Jaccare Givens can be found at @KingJock24

Buckets to Biscayne: What Jimmy Butler Brings to Heat’s Offense

/0 Comments/in /by

It took a nerve-wrecking three-week rodeo with the Minnesota Timberwolves that eventually fell apart. A few months later, a three-team trade with the Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks blew up over a bad game of Telephone. It took the Portland Trail Blazers, the Los Angeles Clippers, and Tress Way-level punting of sleep for the Miami Heat to finally land Jimmy Butler.

But he’s here now. Officially.

We’ve talked plenty about the actual trade, and probably ugly-cried over Josh Richardson’s wholesomeness going to Philly, but that’s not what this piece is for. We’re here to talk about the man himself.

What does he do? How well does he do it? More importantly: Just how much can he help the Heat?

When I first started on this piece, I quickly realized it was going to run long, buddy. There’s so much to like about Jimmy Butler, professional basketball player. For your sake, and in the name of maximizing #clicks, I decided it made much more sense to turn a super profile into a two-part breakdown. In this piece, we’ll look at what Butler brings to the Heat offensively.

Shot Creation

What makes Butler one of the best players in the league, and so intriguing to the Heat, is his ability to get a shot off whenever he wants. He combines a slick handle, underrated footwork, and get-outta-my-face ruggedness to generate looks for himself.

Butler does most of his work in the pick-and-roll. He’s ranked in the 75th percentile or better in each of the past four seasons, per Synergy. He does a nice job of using his handle to get his defender leaning, then takes advantage of the space created to either pull-up on a dime or get to the rack.

He isn’t a Splash Brother by any stretch, but Jimmy’s jimmy (grow up) is good enough to beat drop or ICE coverage. Here’s a quick example from the 17-18 season:

The Spurs are in ICE coverage in that clip — watch how Kyle Anderson positions himself to force Butler away from the screen. Towns does a good job of connecting with Anderson on the screen, giving Butler even more room to attack downhill. With the space afforded to him, Butler pretty much waltzes into a jumper.

It’s the same ordeal against drop coverage. Here, Butler runs Josh Okogie into the Joel Embiid screen. Towns drops back way too far, allowing Butler the space needed to drill the jumper.

Of course, Butler in space can go the other way. He’s a guy that you can’t allow to get a full head of steam going downhill.

It’s not hard to imagine the kind of chemistry Butler can have with a guy like Bam Adebayo. Those screens could pry Butler loose, and Butler has proven that he can take advantage of any space given to him.

Don’t get it twisted: Butler doesn’t need a screen to get free. He doesn’t mind playing bully-ball against smaller defenders (more on that shortly), lulling defenders to sleep before pulling up, or switching gears on drives to create space for his patented turnaround jumper:

These shots aren’t, um, analytically friendly. However, they’re the type of shots that Miami needs during their third quarter lulls or late fourth-quarter possessions. In Butler, they have a guy they can rely on and feel good about.

Attacking Mismatches

Getting a smaller guard switched onto Jimmy Butler is like tossing steak to a lion. You know how it’s going to end — it’s just a matter of when. Denver Nuggets guard Malik Beasley is a fine defender. There isn’t much he can do with this:

Jrue Holiday, one of the NBA’s best defenders period, has absolutely no chance here:

Butler ranked in the 58th, 91st, and 56th percentile on post-ups from the 2015-16 season through the 2017-18 season. He generated a combined 0.818 points per possessions for the Wolves and Sixers last season, well below his norm. In general, Butler has no issue getting to his spots. He has even less of an issue rising up for shots over the outstretched arms of helpless defenders.

With the way Miami loves running inverted pick-and-rolls — think of the Goran Dragic-James Johnson pairing – there’s potential for switch-forcing action to really stress opposing defenses out.

Passing Chops

Wing creators are all the rage right now, and Butler certainly qualifies. His 4.8 assist average over the last three seasons ranks 14th among players 6-foot-6 or taller. Considering the roster and role changes he’s gone through over that time period, that serves as a small window into how effective he is as a creator.

This probably goes without saying, but Butler’s size allows him to see windows that aren’t present to smaller players. He can make the passes you need in pick-and-roll. He can float lobs or slip in passes to the roller if the big defender is in No Man’s Land, he can fit pocket passes into tight spaces, and he can find corner shooters if the help rotates down.

What impresses me the most about Butler is something simple: He always keeps his head up. Even if the defense doesn’t crack with his first or even second move, Butler makes sure to scan the floor for cutters. He really found a knack for finding guys slicing through the lane last season.

This is from the 2017-18 season, but it might be my favorite Butler assist:

Butler kicks off the play with a high pick-and-roll. Brandon Ingram is overzealous, and Butler takes full advantage by rejecting the screen and driving right.

The drive occupies both primary defenders (Ingram and Larry Nance Jr.), but also freezes Isaiah Thomas, who is ready to rotate over to take away a potential jumper on the pop from Gorgui Dieng. Andrew Wiggins reads the rotation from Thomas and darts into the lane.

Butler, who has picked up his dribble at this point, keeps his head up, spots Wiggins, and delivers a beautiful pass for the easy bucket.

Miami has been an equal opportunity offense for a few seasons now. That isn’t inherently bad — coaches generally want a “spread the wealth” system. But they want those by design, not by necessity. The latter has been the case for Miami because they simply haven’t had a guy good enough to carry their offense.

With Jimmy Butler in the fold, it’s safe to say they do now.

Christen Press, love, loss and the beauty of sport

/1 Comment/in /by

I think a lot of people who follow my work know me as a cryer.

I am a sensitive guy and stories tend to move me in visceral ways. In really really profound ways. It’s why I am drawn to sports, it’s theatre of the highest and most authentic order. It’s a tapestry of humanity played out by people we grow to very genuinely love. And so comes Christen Press’ goal in the ninth minute of a World Cup semifinal, burying a header (a technique she has self admitted to be bad at) in the back of the net to give the United States Women National team a lead they would never give back. She raises her hands and smiles to the heavens. “I am because of you” she says on an Instagram post with the iconic photo. “I love you mom” she says on another.

View this post on Instagram

I am because of you ♥️ 🙏🏾

A post shared by Christen Press (@christenpress) on

It’s gutting, its beautiful and it’s true to who she is. For Press this was more than a goal in a big spot, more than a tribute for her deceased mom, it almost felt like validation of a long and complicated career. A moment when everything came together in the most improbable way. A start she wasn’t supposed to have because Megan Rapinoe had a hamstring injury.

Christen Press’ road to be on the national team wasn’t so cut and dry. She was in and out of selection pools when she was young and she ultimately made a hard personal decision to leave her family and go play club soccer in Sweden. She was thrust into a new country, she started blogging while away from home, found meditation and yoga, all searching for not just inner peace but for a road for her dream. To play on this stage, to have this moment.

Her decision to leave home was proven to be the right one, it vaulted her career to a fixture on the national team despite playing with and behind generational talents at her position, Abby Wambach, Alex Morgan and Tobin Heath. She has won and scored in a world cup already, in 2015, and she has been in MVP conversations nearly every year in the National Women’s Soccer League, NWSL (the domestic soccer league).

This hasn’t however come without failures, her teams consistently failed to win championships despite being being a perennial playoff team and in perhaps her career defining mistake she missed a critical penalty against Sweden in the Olympics to give the Americans their earliest exit there. Since then she has been in and out of the starting lineup, usually filling in for an injured Tobin Heath or Alex Morgan but it was never truly her starting spot.

She was traded from her NWSL team The Chicago Red Stars to the Houston Dash and she refused to play in Houston. In a messy situation she went back to Sweden to play for Göteborg FC untill she was moved to a more favorable team. She got her wish and was sent to the Utah Royals to play with fellow national teamers Becky Sauerbrunn and Kelley O’Hara.

It’s been a strange career, all while Press is very open about her search for peace and happiness. She is one of the players suing US Soccer for equal pay, she started a company with Rapinoe, Heath and former USWNT star Megan Klinkenberg which wants to challenge how industry and gender function.

She has done a lot. A lot of failures, heartbreaks both personal and professional and so so so many successes. It’s why as she looked into the heavens I started crying. I knew everything that had to happen for this specificaic moment to happen. How it’s the intersection of so many points, experiences and tears. All to create this moment. Rapione had to not start, she had to go to Sweden, she had to miss the penalty against Sweden, it all had to happen. It’s all part of the story of that fateful header. “I am because of you” she said. “I love you mom” she said.

It’s more than your mom watching that loves you Christen. It’s the world.

Ten Players Sub-26 Who Bring Hope for Dolphins’ Future

/0 Comments/in /by

Miami isn’t expected to be very competitive in 2019, this we already know. 

However,  what many fail to realize, is that despite the treasure chest of 2020 draft capital they possess.  They also project to have a hefty amount of cap space in the near future.  And over the last several years, the Dolphins have started to groom their own talented crop of up-and-coming players.  After all, Miami has a ton of young talent that have shown potential.  Whether or not this new coaching staff can get the most out of those players, has yet to be determined.

Nevertheless, this team isn’t as depleted of talent as many believe.  With plenty of potential, and opportunity for players to take their game to the next level, the future is bright in South Florida.

Let’s take a look at ten players under the age of 26, that the Dolphins can begin to build their franchise around.

 

Laremy Tunsil, Left Tackle

In the next several weeks, the Dolphins will have a very important decision to make on starting LT, Laremy Tunsil.  After all, he has slowly become one of the premier offensive tackles in the NFL.  And after signing Xavien Howard to a lucrative new contract, Tunsil has to believe he’s next in line.  Which, assuming a new deal is reached, means Tunsil will likely be here for the next several years.  Good left tackles don’t grow on trees, and Tunsil is about as good as they come.  It may be a bit early to call him elite, but that is exactly where his NFL status is headed.  And to be completely honest, barring no significant injuries, he could very well go down as one of the best offensive lineman in Miami Dolphins’ history.

Christian Wilkins, Defensive Tackle

Without ever playing a down of professional football, Christian Wilkins future in Miami is as bright as any.  And although it is very likely his familiarity with Marion Hobby may have had something to do with him being selected by the Dolphins 13th-overall.  Wilkins may have been one of the safer picks in the entire draft.  Furthermore, I fully expect Wilkins to be at the forefront of that Dolphins’ defense for the next 5-10 years.  Most of all, I’m excited to see how Patrick Graham utilizes his versatility to play multiple positions.   And let’s not forget he scored a few touchdowns as a running back during his time at Clemson.  Wilkins can do it all.  And will make everyone around him that much better for many, many years.

Xavien Howard, Cornerback

We all know about the big pay day that Xavien Howard got prior to the start of OTAs. For those that don’t know, he signed a 5-year extension worth $76.5M, $46M guaranteed-back in March.  Which is all well and good for a 25-year old defensive back that looked to be one of the league’s true shutdown corners. There are very few press man-to-man corners in the NFL better than Howard.  And when the ball is in the air, he’s just as much entitled to it as the wide receiver. Howard was tied for the league lead in interceptions last season with 7. He really is a special talent, that the Dolphins have locked up for many, many years. Health will always remain a concern.  But make no mistake about it, when he’s healthy, Howard is as good as any cornerback in the NFL.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, Defensive Back

Time and time again, I have mentioned that Minkah Fitzpatrick will likely be Miami’s best playmaker, sooner rather than later.  And after proving in year one that he could play multiple positions, new HC Brian Flores is salivating over all the possibilities he has with FitzMagic.  Fitzpatrick is only going to get better and before everything is said and done, will be among the NFL’s elite players.  The question, however, is where will he play?  Obviously, he’s going to be versatile and has the ability to play on the outside, inside, or at safety.  But if all reports are true, Fitzpatrick may see more time in the slot, which is where he put up elite numbers at Alabama and as a rookie.  Hell, they even said he could play linebacker.  No matter where he decides to align, he will thrive.  Because he’s that damn good. 

Jerome Baker, Linebacker

Arguably the best linebacker on the Dolphins’ roster, Jerome Baker looked impressive during his rookie season.  And as a rookie, Baker combined for 79 tackles (4 TFL) . He also added 3 sacks, 1 interception and a touchdown, to his impressive rookie resume.  It has been questioned whether or not he would be used a bit less in the new defensive scheme.  That has yet to be determined.  In the end, he’s a quick, instinctive playmaker that can do it all.  And for as good as he is vs the run, he’s even more impressive vs the pass. Both Ohio State linebackers should be a part of the team’s long-term plan.

Raekwon McMillan, Linebacker

Baker may have been the more talented player in 2018, but McMillan is the guy I’m most excited about.  And I think in a New England-Style defense, he has the potential to be Brian Flores’ Dont’a Hightower.  He may never be a three-down linebacker and that’s okay, especially in today’s NFL.  But he’s more than capable in zone coverage and has shown the ability to make big plays vs the run.  The future is bright for this tandem.  Please don’t be surprised when McMillan is the bigger factor of the two Ohio State linebackers.

Kenyan Drake, Running Back

Kenyan Drake may always be remembered as the guy that capped off the Miami Miracle.  However, he’s much more than that. And after being limited by Gase’s poor play-calling, everyone should be excited about what Drake can do with a bulk of the touches.  Last season, Drake scored 4 touchdowns on the ground, only receiving 120 carries.  Additionally, he caught 53 receptions for another 477 yards and 5 touchdowns.  If O’Shea can utilize him properly, there’s the potential for his first 1,000 yard season.  The question however, remains, will the Dolphins re-sign Drake after the 2019 season?

Kalen Ballage, Running Back

No one knows how many carries Ballage will get in 2019, but we can certainly assume it will be more than 36.  And let’s not forget he did have that breakout game vs Minnesota, which was inflated by a 70-yard run. Nonetheless, he has a chance to see a significant uptick in production and could prove to be the long-term starter.  Unfortunately for Ballage, he needs to outperform Kenyan Drake, who deserves his own bulk of the lion’s share.

Albert Wilson, Wide Receiver

There might not be a more explosive player on the Dolphins’ offense than Albert Wilson.  And what he accomplished with limited opportunities in 2018 prior to his hip injury, was among the NFL’s best at his position.  Wilson has stated all offseason that he is fully healthy and ready for Week 1 of the season. If his body can hold up, he should have a huge impact in 2019 and beyond.  You would be hard pressed to find a receiver with the type of skills Wilson possesses.  He can do it all.

Bobby McCain, Cornerback

Early in 2018, Bobby McCain looked like he could play outside on the perimeter.  In fact, he made play after play in that Week 1 marathon vs Tennessee. And if he continued to show that tenacity and ability to keep the play in front of him, things would have been okay.  Instead, things spiraled out of control. No player in Flores’ defense is going to be one-dimensional. If rumors are true, however, McCain could be the Dolphins’ starting free safety in 2019.  And a change like this, could pay dividends for a guy that looked lost at times in 2018. 

Other potential players:

Josh Rosen

Davon Godchaux

Vincent Taylor

Jakeem Grant

Devante Parker

Mike Gesicki

 

 

Two G.O.A.T.s at UFC 239

/0 Comments/in /by

Where to watch: Saturday, July 6th, 2019, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada. Available on ESPN PPV.

The G.O.A.T returns this Saturday. I know what you are thinking. Yeah, I’m not paying good money to see Jon Jones annihilate No. 3 contender Thiago Santos to retain his Light Heavyweight Title. Well, that’s the main event. The co-main event is where I want you to concentrate your attention. The G.O.A.T I’m referring to is Women’s Bantamweight Champion Amanda Nunes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLcAUWXNb30

The avid combat sports fan is well aware of Amanda Nunes, and her dominance, but I feel as if the general public is a little late to this party. She first came to the public conscience in 2016 when she became the first openly gay Champion in UFC history. Amanda Nunes is engaged to fellow UFC fighter Nina Ansaroff, and you can follow their antics on @amanda_leoa on Instagram, or @Amanda_Leoa ‏on Twitter.

Nunes also has a local connection. She is from Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, but she fights out of the American Top Team Gym in Coconut Creek, Florida. If I am starting to sound like a fan of hers, well, I am. Nunes, after losing to Cat Zingano in spectacular fashion in September of 2014, has laid a path of destruction through a who’s who of Female MMA stars. Nunes is a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a Brown Belt in Judo, but make no mistake, her draw is that she has uncanny, scary power.

On July 9th, 2016, everything changed for Amanda Nunes. Not only did she defeat Miesha Tate for the Bantamweight Title, but UFC President Dana White recognized her as the draw that she is, and placed her at the upper tier among the highest paid in the UFC. This fight showed you how she is feared as well, as Tate, a woman who famously refused to tap out to Ronda Rousey and “allowed” for her arm to be broken to not give Rousey the satisfaction of a tap, looked visibly shaken/afraid of Nunes.

Nunes’ star was already on the rise, but after retiring the biggest star, male or female (Ronda Rousey) in UFC history in 48 seconds, she cemented her main event status. So much so, that it takes a champion like Jon Jones to share the headliner bill for UFC 239. One can argue that she shouldn’t share a co-main event, as she is a draw herself. Then came Cris Cyborg and an opportunity to become the only woman to hold championship belts in different divisions simultaneously.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLrecMQyvjE

To say that Cris Cyborg, for almost a decade was a terrifying figure is an understatement. Putting the insulting requests aside, many fighters including Rousey “challenged” Cyborg to a battery of tests to prove that she was not on performance enhancers. Plenty of “ducking” from the upper echelon of fighters in the UFC ensued. Only one fighter did not care. One fighter made weight accommodations, and jumped at the first possible opportunity. Amanda Nunes. What came next was the destruction of the seemingly indestructible Cris Cyborg in 51 seconds.

Now, another dangerous opponent, Holly Holm awaits. This fight could be really interesting in the sense that these are the two best female strikers in the sport. Holm’s size and range could give Nunes some problems, and force her to go deeper into her repertoire, and show those Black Belt Jiu-Jitsu chops. This is an exciting time for Women’s MMA, and no offense to Ronda Rousey, who accomplished plenty, but we now have a complete fighter carrying the banner. While Rousey sold PPV’s (Nunes has struggled as a headliner on PPV buys), Nunes through her dominance could eventually land her among the PPV kings/queens.

I’ll be watching on Saturday. I urge you all to do the same.

Alfredo Arteaga (@UptownReport) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.

El premio a la rotación de los Marlins

/0 Comments/in /by

La rotación de los Marlins de Miami ha sido por lejos lo mas destacado de este equipo en los primeros tres meses de campaña.

Tras la jornada del domingo, la rotación de los Marlins tiene la octava mejor efectividad de todas las Grandes Ligas, y la quinta mejor de la Liga Nacional.

Caleb Smith fue el principal artífice durante el primer mes de la temporada, y luego sus compases fueron acompañados por el resto de la orquesta, con un Pablo López haciendo ajustes, un Sandy Alcántara superando sus problemas de descontrol, Trevor Richards a la calladita sacando outs por montones con su cambio, y con unos jóvenes dando la cara cuando les ha tocado surgir.

José Ureña dio paso a Jordan Yamamoto por una lesión que aún no sabemos cuánto tiempo lo va a mantener lejos, y el novato ganó sus tres primeras salidas, permitiendo apenas dos carreras.

Eliéser Hernández y Zac Gallen también destacaron en sus salidas, y pese a pequeños sobresaltos en algunos episodios, han seguido por la misma línea que trazó Smith al comienzo de la temporada.

El premio a la rotación: Alcántara al All Star Game

Sandy Alcántara fue el escogido por el cuerpo técnico de la Liga Nacional para representar a los Marlins de Miami en el Juego de Estrellas de las Grandes Ligas.

El dominicano no ha sido el mas efectivo de los cinco primeros escogidos por Mattingly para integrar la rotación, pero de los que quedan saludables, es el que tiene mejor efectividad, con 3.86, en 16 aperturas.

Trevor Richards le sigue de cerca, con 4.02, en 17, y lo supera en ponches 83 a 65, y en promedio en contra, con .237 vs .255 que le batean a Alcántara.

Si se quería premiar a algún lanzador de los Marlins, Alcántara o Richards eran los escogidos, y al final, se decantaron por Alcántara.

Miguel Rojas se quedó en el círculo de espera

El campocorto de los Marlins se asomaba como una opción interesante para representar al equipo en el Juego de Estrellas.

Ha jugando un campocorto excepcional con jugadas espectaculares a lo largo de la campaña, y de mantenerse sano va a estar en la conversación para los considerados para el guante de oro en la Liga Nacional.

Su defensive WAR es el segundo mejor de la liga, con 1.6, solo detrás de Nick Ahmed, con 2.0.

Además, Rojas está teniendo un muy buen año con el madero bateando .287 (tercer mejor promedio de la Liga Nacional), .350 de OBP (cuarto en la liga detrás de Manny Machado, Corey Seager y Trevor Story con 20 dobles (empatado en el segundo lugar de la liga con nombres como Javier Baez, Trevor Story, Nick Ahmed y Paul DeJong).

En Junio terminó de ajustar su swing como primer bate del equipo, y para algunos, esto podía haberle dado el último empujón para ser escogido.

Al final, Paul De Jong y Trevor Story fueron los escogidos por la MLB según los votos de los fans y los votos de los propios jugadores.

Welcome to Pat Riley’s rightful final rush for relevance

/3 Comments/in /by

The tales all run together now, especially those about anything prior to 2010, which is all anyone still seems to vividly remember. But, back in 2003, before he pulled off the greatest coup in free agent history, the one that every other franchise has spent the past decade trying to replicate, Pat Riley pulled one over on Donald Sterling that even Sterling’s shady girlfriend couldn’t top.

The Heat were coming off an anomaly in Riley’s tenure to that point. They had experienced some euphoria, notably the fortune-altering acquisition of Alonzo Mourning, and some excellence from the teams that Mourning anchored. And they had experienced agony, whether those three playoff series losses to the lower seeded, ultra obnoxious New York Knicks, or Mourning’s horribly timed kidney disease, right when Riley had reshaped and refreshed the roster for a real run.

But they had not experienced irrelevance. Never. They were not boring. They were not forgotten.

Those 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons were different however. Different, as in dull. The first featured a collection of castoffs on close to their last legs, the Kendall Gills and the Jimmy Jacksons and the Travis Bests and the Cedric Ceballos’s, with the latter’s most considerable contribution coming in the form of the messy Cheetos he shared with teammates in the pre-game locker room. By the next season, Riley had turned most of those relics to dust, replacing with some younger pieces like Caron Butler. But the Heat won just 25 games and the Dolphins, of all things — with Ricky Williams rampaging and Jason Taylor terrorizing — were far more compelling. That, however, was just seen as a bridge period by the fans who still trusted him to build again.

They always believed he had a plan — and plans after the plan.

And this one was a doozy, preying upon the penurious nature of the Clippers’ repugnant owner and the vagaries of restricted free agency. He went after Elton Brand. When he might have really wanted Lamar Odom. Riley extended an offer sheet to the Clippers’ smart, skilled big man, knowing Sterling, to save face, might actually match that one. Brand wanted to be here, and was disappointed when he — having left his phone by his belongings on the beach — returned to the device to learn that he was heading back to the Sterling sweatshop. That’s when Riley swooped in and offered a contract to Odom, a versatile forward he had coveted since the draft.

Sterling didn’t match that one.

Odom resurrected his reputation in that good old Heat culture, enough that he became the key piece the Lakers — and specifically Kobe Bryant — wanted when their situation with Shaquille O’Neal soured. And so Riley fast-tracked the Heat not merely to relevance but, in 2005-06, a parade. That parade on Biscayne Bay he had promised.

So here we are again. The Heat are not as irrelevant as they were after that 2002-03 season. But they’re not especially interesting either, and this has gone on longer, ever since the Heat exchanged the likes of LeBron James for Danny Granger and Josh McRoberts and Shabazz Napier in 2014. With Wade retired (we think), there’s no star, nothing close, no one who is at a higher level, or even projects at a higher level, than the most productive or promising player on any other team in the league. Not one. Go through it. And this is coming from someone who likes The Kids quite a lot. And now, unlike then, faith in Riley among the fan base is shaken. The Twitter reaction not just to the Tyler Herro selection but especially to Riley’s roster explanations afterwards was strikingly strident. Many just want him to go at this point, not caring or even aware that this organization was going nowhere before him and not clear on who will make it go after.

Is everyone spoiled? Sure. But he made them that way. That’s his fault. The Heat’s youngish fans are his children. He made basketball matter here, matter way too much in their lives, simply through the cavalcade of players and personalities he introduced to this area, and now it doesn’t matter anything like it did, and he bears some responsibility for that too. The Heat botched much of the 2016 and 2017 summers, no matter why they say they made some of the moves they did. Nothing justifies granting four lucrative seasons to James Johnson after four good months in a career of largely unremarkable achievement. The Heat have done plenty of good in the interim, with smart extensions and creative additions. But they should be major free agent players now, for everyone who likes the beach and a lower tax rate, and they’re not, and that’s why.

And so, in the national conversation about the NBA, the Warriors matter, the Raptors matter, the Sixers matter, the Nets matter, even the freaking Knicks matter, until they overpay two role players because no one of note wants to come to the Mecca.

The Heat have not mattered in that discussion. Not like they should. Not like he should.

That’s why Riley has to get Jimmy Butler now.

For relevance.

Is Butler the star who I would choose to reset the course of the franchise? Hardly. He will be 30 this season, but may be 35 in Thibs years. He doesn’t shoot the three all that well, which is a concern as he ages and other actions don’t come as easy. He is a notoriously difficult teammate, though the Heat may need one of those — and they will welcome his absolute insistence against taking the slightest bit of shit. He’s going to be crazy expensive by the end of that deal, unless the salary cap nearly doubles.

But he’s a starter star, and the Heat need that.

Now.

He’s the star who may attract another, because no one on this roster is doing that. In fact, it’s Dwyane Wade — now free of the NBA’s inane tampering restrictions — who is the draw for Butler, who seems to see himself as the natural heir. Butler wants to be here. That’s clear. That’s been clear. Houston makes no sense, not with the two egos and ball-bouncers already in play there. Philly only makes sense if the 76ers offer a fifth year, which they seem disinclined to do when they have two mercurial max talents on the roster.

Butler may not be a lead guy on a champion.

But he’s not a third wheel either.

Here he would be first, until he is second, and his presence may help the Heat get the guy who supplants him. He would re-energize the fan base. He would re-energize Riley. He would re-energize Erik Spoelstra, who has appeared worn of late, and it can’t just be the baby. Maybe it’s the roster. If it is, that’s understandable.

But really, this is about Riley. It always is. This was Dwyane’s house, but he sits high in the castle.

Why the hell do you think he is still there, when there are capable replacements in the front office?

To watch a bunch of B-plus talents grow on their own?

Don’t we know better by now?

Riley told me, after LeBron left, that his plan was to win one more championship and disappear before the champagne even spilled. Just sprint out of the arena with his wife Chris, over to a plane, off to France, into solitude, and self-imposed irrelevance. Not the kind the Heat have now. By choice. Not by mistake.

Butler may not deliver a title, but he will deliver hope. He will deliver anticipation. He will deliver ticket sales. He will push the Dolphins back to the background, Manny Diaz back to the transfer portal. He will get an occasional ESPN crew out here. He will be an attraction. Not LeBron. Not Shaq. Not Zo. But something.

And the Heat have always been something under Riley.

Something to be seen. Something to be emulated. Something, at times, to be feared.

Not something to be ignored.

So this is it. They’ve been setting up for this. You can see it. They knew Butler wanted to be here. They have the best cap guy in the business, in Andy Elisburg. Jimmy just needs to say the word. If the Heat’s pitch moves him, money can always be moved. Chairs can be rearranged. Roles can be filled. This is the Riley way. Get the star. Figure it the f— out later. This is who he is. This is what he does. This is why he’s still here, even if some of you would rather he scram.

He has been an NBA prince and kingmaker, but he is still a Schenectady scrapper, told by his father to plant his feet and make a stand. This is the last stand, at least in this arena. This stretch of three offseasons. This is a role he seems to relish, as much as jostling with Jerry West in a practice, when he was little more than a sparring partner. He’s an avowed Republican who remains clinically obsessed with a famously liberal songwriter, someone who made sure that “The Rising” was playing as often as possible in his arena, even though few of his players thought of anyone but him as The Boss or would ever go to Asbury Park.

“Lost track of how far I’ve gone
How far I’ve gone, how high I’ve climbed
On my back’s a sixty pound stone
On my shoulder a half mile of line”

This situation isn’t nearly as important as what that song references. It’s not life and death. But for Riley, this is the calling. The climb back to relevance. The rising starts with Jimmy Butler, even if it can’t end there. Go get ’em, Pat. Close the deal. Sell what you’ve done, and what you can still do, to Butler. Sell some of your assets to Brand if necessary, now that your former free agent target could now be your trading partner, as the 76ers general manager. You’ve been around that long. But since you’re still here, time for one last rightful rage against the dying of the light.

 

Ethan J. Skolnick is the host of the new Five On The Floor podcast, and will be writing regularly about the Miami Heat for this site. 

Is it the time to call out Marlins fans?

/0 Comments/in /by

Fans have not supported the Miami Marlins this season, and some may say they don’t have a reason to.

Little by little, those excuses are falling off the table.

The Miami Marlins just swept the Philadelphia Phillies at their place to get their twentieth win in the last thirty five games.

Jordan Yamamoto had another great performance, even though he walked the first three batters he faced, coming up with a great comeback and keeping his ERA under 1.00 (0.95) in his first three outings.

For some, it is the right time to get to Marlins Park and support the team, now that they’re not just playing better baseball, but also sweeping playoff contenders with a young core group.

I am very excited with what we’re seeing this season, with young arms shining and a couple of bats waking up and supporting their pitchers to get wins.

After all, that 10-35 start had us all thinking this could be a negative record-setting season.

The Marlins are doing their best to put a competitive team on the field and the latest moves show they’re trying to win some games right now too.

However, I would not go too far and call Marlins fans out yet.

Even though the Marlins have had a positive month of June so far, and they’re winning in a much more consistent basis, they’re sitting with the worst record of the National League.

Three games behind the Giants, six games behind the Pirates, Reds and Mets and six and a half from the Nationals, their next rival at Marlins Park starting on Tuesday.

The Marlins are playing much better, but I still think we can’t just expect the fans to show up right away just because of that.

They have the third best ERA among starters in the majors, and that’s a great start of a rebuilding of a team.

Still, I am not sure Marlins Park will start filling up more just because of that.

On Tuesday Marlins fans will have a great opportunity to see one of the or the best pitcher in baseball in Max Scherzer, facing one of the best pitchers in the Marlins system in Zac Gallen for the first time.

Will the fans come to support the Marlins’ rookie?

I think it’s not that easy. Marlins fans have suffered different rebuildings and have never been a consistent fan base during regular season games here in Miami.

Even when the team had Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto, Gordon and José Fernández, the park didn’t fill up.

Nowadays, there’s just not a real link between the team and the community. That takes time to build, and the Marlins are in the right track.

But it’s too early to call out Marlins fans…

 

Cinco Razones Podcast will be recording their first episode in English to talk about the Marlins on Thursday at Marlins Park, so if you want to see them, and support the team, know they (Ricardo, Leandro, Alejandro, Dutch, and Tony) will be there this week. 

Exploring Tyler Herro’s Offensive Upside

/2 Comments/in /by

With the 13th pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, the Miami Heat select … Tyler Herro from the University of Kentucky.

Not Sekou Doumbouya, the International Man of Mystery.

Not Kevin Porter Jr., the domestic Man of Mystery with the most boom-or-bust equity in the draft.

Romeo Langford? Brandon Clarke? Nassir Little?

Nope, nope, nope.

The Heat valued the offensive promise of Herro, a 6’6 guard with a silky jumper and enough brashness to make Sidney Dean blush.

(No, not that Sidney Dean.)

The reaction to the selection was mixed, to be kind. The most common complaints revolve around Herro’s short wingspan (a little over 6’3) and a perceived lack of upside. He’s not growing longer arms – not legally, anyway – so that’s just something I, er, we have to get over. Is the second point fair or accurate?

Well, that’s what this piece is for.

The Good

It’s pretty easy to justify the selection. The Heat took the temperature (ha) of the league and recognized their need for shooting**. They needed someone that could not only convert catch-and-shoots, but could also bend defenses with off-ball movement. I would imagine they also grew tired of losing close games because of missed free throws.

**We’ll just ignore the fact that they traded two plus-shooters for tax shavings four months ago.**

Herro fits the bill. He graded out in the 70th percentile on spot-up possessions last season, via Synergy Sports. His 35.5 percent clip from three (31.9 percent from NBA three) isn’t elite, but his 93.5 percent mark from the free throw line is a great indicator of his prowess moving forward.

Kentucky had Herro run off a ton of pindowns to flow into jumpers or secondary pick-and-rolls last season. The foundational footwork, as well as his ability to quickly catch, square, and fire away is there to be an off-movement threat on the next level. He’s not a JJ Redick or Wayne Ellington-level mover, but there’s a reasonable path to hitting the next tier.

The Bad

There’s also room to criticize the pick.

Completely ignoring the other players on the board at the time, there should be legitimate concerns about how Herro’s defense translates. He fights hard and displays a solid understanding of what’s happening around him, but, man, it’s just hard to get past the lack of length and burst.

Herro has alligator arms and isn’t explosive laterally. He’s not going to be able to hang with the NBA’s speediest guards, nor does he have the length to consistently alter shots of bigger wings.  He projects mostly as a one-position defender.Within that specific context, the comparisons to Tyler Johnson are valid.

The Big Question

It’s pretty safe to bet on Herro being a plus-shooter with a capped defensive ceiling. The swing skill for Herro, at least to me, is overall shot creation. His ability, or inability, to do that for himself and others is what will determine how good that pick is.

Kentucky mostly used Herro as a secondary on-ball threat, particularly at the end of their motion/weave stuff in the half-court. It’s telling (and smart) that they worked to shift the defense before having Herro attack. In general, attacking bent defenses is a good thing that often leads to advantage situations. In the case of Herro, giving him a head start was a way to hedge against his lack of on-ball juice (more on that shortly).

We’ll start here, though: Herro generated a combined 75 points on 68 possessions in pick-and-roll or isolation situations (passing included) last season, via Synergy. That’s not an incredibly large sample, but a 1.10 points per possession mark is pretty darn good. Mix in his efficiency as an off-the-bounce shooter (0.991 PPP, 82nd percentile) and tear dropper (1.08 PPP on floaters), and there are positive indicators of creation ability hiding in plain sight.

The pick-and-roll possessions are what I really want to focus on. Not only does that make up the majority of the creation sample (52 of the 68 possessions), it’s the area the Heat need the most help in. The Heat finished 29th in pick-and-roll ball-handler offense (passes included), generating just 92.1 points per 100 possessions.

I went back and watched all 52 of Herro’s logged pick-and-roll possessions on Friday, and tweeted about some of them on Twitter, which you can find here. More than anything, I wanted to get a feel on, well, his feel. How quickly was he processing the coverages being presented to him? What passes are in his arsenal? What’s his pace like? Does he make sound decisions? Were there any advanced flashes — putting defenders in jail, timing passes, weakside corner skips on the move — or did he just play things safe?

I’ll say this much: I understand why the Heat have optimism, even if I don’t necessarily agree with all of it.

Passing Chops

The first thing that stood out to me is that Herro doesn’t make outright bad decisions. He committed seven turnovers in his 52 pick-and-roll possessions; only three of them came as a passer. The context of him being a secondary option matters, but it also speaks to the trust (albeit small, in terms of the sample) he earned at Kentucky to finish possessions.

Herro seems to have solid recognition skills. That should translate well at the next level. He uses the early portions of possessions to diagnose how defenses defend ball screens, then often chooses the right method of attack once the ball swings his way.

Ashton Hagans runs a pair of pick-and-rolls. The first comes during the initial push in transition, and you’ll notice Mississippi State tries to “ICE” the screen — the perimeter defender positions his body to force Hagans down the sideline instead of allowing him to get to the middle of the floor. After Hagans resets, he calls for a high ball screen in the middle of the floor, revealing Mississippi State’s preferred method of defending by bringing the big man up to “catch” the driver.

Herro downloads all of this.

The ball eventually finds Herro, who already knows the big will show somewhat high on the screen. Equipped with that knowledge, Herro releases an early forward pass to a slipping PJ Washington, completely catching the defense out of position. The pass isn’t well thrown, but Washington corrals it and attacks before getting fouled.

You can see a similar thing happen here:

Again, Herro reads what the big defender is doing in pick-and-roll before using that information for himself. As he tries to attack to his left, the big steps up to contain the drive. That leaves a window for a pocket pass, which Herro executes well.

The one consistent thing across Herro’s pick-and-roll film is his ability to read the big. That’s a legitimate positive. The next step, and what would raise his ceiling as a playmaker, is to shift focus to the help defender. That’s what separate good pick-and-roll players from advanced ones. In fact, it’s one of the things Justise Winslow said he’s picked up from Dwyane Wade over the last year or so.

Herro isn’t making advanced reads yet. In the 52 pick-and-roll possessions he logged, I was only able to see two (2) skips to the weakside corner. Even within the context of looking for flashes, that’s a pretty low sample. You’d like to see more of those when trying to project him as a plus-playmaker on the next level.

The good news is that Herro does have good feel and makes pretty good decisions. That’s a solid foundation to expand off of. If the reports of Herro being an absurdly high-level worker are true, and they seem to be, it’s easy to be optimistic that he could become more.

Scoring Repertoire

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Tyler Herro is a bucket.

We’re working with a limited sample here, but his efficiency as a pick-and-roll scorer still pops off the screen. 31 points on 25 possessions. 13-of-20 clip from the field. Adjusted field goal percentage of 72.5!

Herro’s end-game was often the pull-up jumper. Via Synergy, 12 of his 20 shot attempts were off-the-bounce jimmies. He drilled seven of them, giving him a 58.3 percent clip. That number isn’t sustainable – we might actually be looking at a Curry-like shooter then – but the film is encouraging. His handle isn’t great (more on that later) but he’s able to quickly shift from dribbler to shooter in one fluid motion. His balance is superb, and that allows him to float into, or fade away into comfortable looks.

Herro’s ability to read the big here is key. He watches their feet, mixing in subtle fakes to keep them off-balance. He doesn’t need much time (or space) to flow into his jumper, so one false move is all he needs to capitalize on.

Herro’s intermediate touch is why the Heat are excited about his three-level scoring potential. He has the shot repertoire necessary to beat “Drop” coverage. That includes less-than-analytically-ideal shots like floaters. He shot 14-of-26 on runners this past season, though obviously they didn’t all come in pick-and-roll situations. Still, it’s a great tool to have in the bag.

The issue is that Herro doesn’t have a particularly advanced handle, which would be fine if he had the explosiveness to compensate. He, uh, does not have the explosiveness to compensate.

Herro just can’t consistently puncture defenses on his own merit. He needs a bent defense and a great screen to get downhill, and even that isn’t enough to create separation all of the time. If he can’t slither through creases, he’s forced into one-on-one scenarios that will be much harder than he faced at Kentucky. The athleticism jumps a tier or two in the NBA, as does the length of the defenders he’ll face.

Herro won with tough shots at Kentucky, but the margin for error was already pretty thin. It’s going to be virtually non-existent on the next level. It’s unclear how much better he’ll get as an athlete, but he has to get stronger and gain a better understanding of attacking angles.

I’m just … not sure I see three-level scoring upside with Herro. The pull-up shooting from middy and deep will likely translate. The finishing is worth the skepticism. He was flat-out bad around the basket last season. He needed the floater to be successful. At a certain point, the lack of vertical pop and length is hard to overcome. That especially hurts if you’re hoping there’s some Devin Booker-esque hidden upside as a primary creator.

A small guy like Isaiah Thomas was always an elite finisher. Justise Winslow became a slightly-above average one last season, but he always had the first step (and size) to get to the rim whenever he wanted. Herro can’t consistently get there, and struggles to finish over length when he does.

One thing that’ll help for sure: he’ll have the best screen setters he’s had in his life.

Watching PJ Washington go through the motions as a screener was frustrating to me. I can’t imagine how Herro felt. The NBA is a spacier game in general. Bigger courts, better shooters. Getting lead blocks from Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk will give him even more space to work with. If you’re trying to find a path to success, it’ll be with the Heat giving him consistent head starts with off-ball action and hard screens, and Herro developing some craft or off-timing drives like a Goran Dragic.

There’s room for optimism with Herro offensively. As much as, uh, some people went to Tyler Johnson or Wayne Ellington comps, the film makes it clear that those examples are selling him short. There’s legit passing feel and pull-up equity present that the other two never had. Herro’s a little bigger than both, and will get stronger on the next level. There’s plenty to like here.

But if you’re hoping for a Booker or Donovan Mitchell-like surprise leap, you might want to hold your breath.