The tales all run together now, especially those about anything prior to 2010, which is all anyone still seems to vividly remember. But, back in 2003, before he pulled off the greatest coup in free agent history, the one that every other franchise has spent the past decade trying to replicate, Pat Riley pulled one over on Donald Sterling that even Sterling’s shady girlfriend couldn’t top.

The Heat were coming off an anomaly in Riley’s tenure to that point. They had experienced some euphoria, notably the fortune-altering acquisition of Alonzo Mourning, and some excellence from the teams that Mourning anchored. And they had experienced agony, whether those three playoff series losses to the lower seeded, ultra obnoxious New York Knicks, or Mourning’s horribly timed kidney disease, right when Riley had reshaped and refreshed the roster for a real run.

But they had not experienced irrelevance. Never. They were not boring. They were not forgotten.

Those 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons were different however. Different, as in dull. The first featured a collection of castoffs on close to their last legs, the Kendall Gills and the Jimmy Jacksons and the Travis Bests and the Cedric Ceballos’s, with the latter’s most considerable contribution coming in the form of the messy Cheetos he shared with teammates in the pre-game locker room. By the next season, Riley had turned most of those relics to dust, replacing with some younger pieces like Caron Butler. But the Heat won just 25 games and the Dolphins, of all things — with Ricky Williams rampaging and Jason Taylor terrorizing — were far more compelling. That, however, was just seen as a bridge period by the fans who still trusted him to build again.

They always believed he had a plan — and plans after the plan.

And this one was a doozy, preying upon the penurious nature of the Clippers’ repugnant owner and the vagaries of restricted free agency. He went after Elton Brand. When he might have really wanted Lamar Odom. Riley extended an offer sheet to the Clippers’ smart, skilled big man, knowing Sterling, to save face, might actually match that one. Brand wanted to be here, and was disappointed when he — having left his phone by his belongings on the beach — returned to the device to learn that he was heading back to the Sterling sweatshop. That’s when Riley swooped in and offered a contract to Odom, a versatile forward he had coveted since the draft.

Sterling didn’t match that one.

Odom resurrected his reputation in that good old Heat culture, enough that he became the key piece the Lakers — and specifically Kobe Bryant — wanted when their situation with Shaquille O’Neal soured. And so Riley fast-tracked the Heat not merely to relevance but, in 2005-06, a parade. That parade on Biscayne Bay he had promised.

So here we are again. The Heat are not as irrelevant as they were after that 2002-03 season. But they’re not especially interesting either, and this has gone on longer, ever since the Heat exchanged the likes of LeBron James for Danny Granger and Josh McRoberts and Shabazz Napier in 2014. With Wade retired (we think), there’s no star, nothing close, no one who is at a higher level, or even projects at a higher level, than the most productive or promising player on any other team in the league. Not one. Go through it. And this is coming from someone who likes The Kids quite a lot. And now, unlike then, faith in Riley among the fan base is shaken. The Twitter reaction not just to the Tyler Herro selection but especially to Riley’s roster explanations afterwards was strikingly strident. Many just want him to go at this point, not caring or even aware that this organization was going nowhere before him and not clear on who will make it go after.

Is everyone spoiled? Sure. But he made them that way. That’s his fault. The Heat’s youngish fans are his children. He made basketball matter here, matter way too much in their lives, simply through the cavalcade of players and personalities he introduced to this area, and now it doesn’t matter anything like it did, and he bears some responsibility for that too. The Heat botched much of the 2016 and 2017 summers, no matter why they say they made some of the moves they did. Nothing justifies granting four lucrative seasons to James Johnson after four good months in a career of largely unremarkable achievement. The Heat have done plenty of good in the interim, with smart extensions and creative additions. But they should be major free agent players now, for everyone who likes the beach and a lower tax rate, and they’re not, and that’s why.

And so, in the national conversation about the NBA, the Warriors matter, the Raptors matter, the Sixers matter, the Nets matter, even the freaking Knicks matter, until they overpay two role players because no one of note wants to come to the Mecca.

The Heat have not mattered in that discussion. Not like they should. Not like he should.

That’s why Riley has to get Jimmy Butler now.

For relevance.

Is Butler the star who I would choose to reset the course of the franchise? Hardly. He will be 30 this season, but may be 35 in Thibs years. He doesn’t shoot the three all that well, which is a concern as he ages and other actions don’t come as easy. He is a notoriously difficult teammate, though the Heat may need one of those — and they will welcome his absolute insistence against taking the slightest bit of shit. He’s going to be crazy expensive by the end of that deal, unless the salary cap nearly doubles.

But he’s a starter star, and the Heat need that.

Now.

He’s the star who may attract another, because no one on this roster is doing that. In fact, it’s Dwyane Wade — now free of the NBA’s inane tampering restrictions — who is the draw for Butler, who seems to see himself as the natural heir. Butler wants to be here. That’s clear. That’s been clear. Houston makes no sense, not with the two egos and ball-bouncers already in play there. Philly only makes sense if the 76ers offer a fifth year, which they seem disinclined to do when they have two mercurial max talents on the roster.

Butler may not be a lead guy on a champion.

But he’s not a third wheel either.

Here he would be first, until he is second, and his presence may help the Heat get the guy who supplants him. He would re-energize the fan base. He would re-energize Riley. He would re-energize Erik Spoelstra, who has appeared worn of late, and it can’t just be the baby. Maybe it’s the roster. If it is, that’s understandable.

But really, this is about Riley. It always is. This was Dwyane’s house, but he sits high in the castle.

Why the hell do you think he is still there, when there are capable replacements in the front office?

To watch a bunch of B-plus talents grow on their own?

Don’t we know better by now?

Riley told me, after LeBron left, that his plan was to win one more championship and disappear before the champagne even spilled. Just sprint out of the arena with his wife Chris, over to a plane, off to France, into solitude, and self-imposed irrelevance. Not the kind the Heat have now. By choice. Not by mistake.

Butler may not deliver a title, but he will deliver hope. He will deliver anticipation. He will deliver ticket sales. He will push the Dolphins back to the background, Manny Diaz back to the transfer portal. He will get an occasional ESPN crew out here. He will be an attraction. Not LeBron. Not Shaq. Not Zo. But something.

And the Heat have always been something under Riley.

Something to be seen. Something to be emulated. Something, at times, to be feared.

Not something to be ignored.

So this is it. They’ve been setting up for this. You can see it. They knew Butler wanted to be here. They have the best cap guy in the business, in Andy Elisburg. Jimmy just needs to say the word. If the Heat’s pitch moves him, money can always be moved. Chairs can be rearranged. Roles can be filled. This is the Riley way. Get the star. Figure it the f— out later. This is who he is. This is what he does. This is why he’s still here, even if some of you would rather he scram.

He has been an NBA prince and kingmaker, but he is still a Schenectady scrapper, told by his father to plant his feet and make a stand. This is the last stand, at least in this arena. This stretch of three offseasons. This is a role he seems to relish, as much as jostling with Jerry West in a practice, when he was little more than a sparring partner. He’s an avowed Republican who remains clinically obsessed with a famously liberal songwriter, someone who made sure that “The Rising” was playing as often as possible in his arena, even though few of his players thought of anyone but him as The Boss or would ever go to Asbury Park.

“Lost track of how far I’ve gone
How far I’ve gone, how high I’ve climbed
On my back’s a sixty pound stone
On my shoulder a half mile of line”

This situation isn’t nearly as important as what that song references. It’s not life and death. But for Riley, this is the calling. The climb back to relevance. The rising starts with Jimmy Butler, even if it can’t end there. Go get ’em, Pat. Close the deal. Sell what you’ve done, and what you can still do, to Butler. Sell some of your assets to Brand if necessary, now that your former free agent target could now be your trading partner, as the 76ers general manager. You’ve been around that long. But since you’re still here, time for one last rightful rage against the dying of the light.

 

Ethan J. Skolnick is the host of the new Five On The Floor podcast, and will be writing regularly about the Miami Heat for this site. 

With the 13th pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, the Miami Heat select … Tyler Herro from the University of Kentucky.

Not Sekou Doumbouya, the International Man of Mystery.

Not Kevin Porter Jr., the domestic Man of Mystery with the most boom-or-bust equity in the draft.

Romeo Langford? Brandon Clarke? Nassir Little?

Nope, nope, nope.

The Heat valued the offensive promise of Herro, a 6’6 guard with a silky jumper and enough brashness to make Sidney Dean blush.

(No, not that Sidney Dean.)

The reaction to the selection was mixed, to be kind. The most common complaints revolve around Herro’s short wingspan (a little over 6’3) and a perceived lack of upside. He’s not growing longer arms – not legally, anyway – so that’s just something I, er, we have to get over. Is the second point fair or accurate?

Well, that’s what this piece is for.

The Good

It’s pretty easy to justify the selection. The Heat took the temperature (ha) of the league and recognized their need for shooting**. They needed someone that could not only convert catch-and-shoots, but could also bend defenses with off-ball movement. I would imagine they also grew tired of losing close games because of missed free throws.

**We’ll just ignore the fact that they traded two plus-shooters for tax shavings four months ago.**

Herro fits the bill. He graded out in the 70th percentile on spot-up possessions last season, via Synergy Sports. His 35.5 percent clip from three (31.9 percent from NBA three) isn’t elite, but his 93.5 percent mark from the free throw line is a great indicator of his prowess moving forward.

Kentucky had Herro run off a ton of pindowns to flow into jumpers or secondary pick-and-rolls last season. The foundational footwork, as well as his ability to quickly catch, square, and fire away is there to be an off-movement threat on the next level. He’s not a JJ Redick or Wayne Ellington-level mover, but there’s a reasonable path to hitting the next tier.

The Bad

There’s also room to criticize the pick.

Completely ignoring the other players on the board at the time, there should be legitimate concerns about how Herro’s defense translates. He fights hard and displays a solid understanding of what’s happening around him, but, man, it’s just hard to get past the lack of length and burst.

Herro has alligator arms and isn’t explosive laterally. He’s not going to be able to hang with the NBA’s speediest guards, nor does he have the length to consistently alter shots of bigger wings.  He projects mostly as a one-position defender.Within that specific context, the comparisons to Tyler Johnson are valid.

The Big Question

It’s pretty safe to bet on Herro being a plus-shooter with a capped defensive ceiling. The swing skill for Herro, at least to me, is overall shot creation. His ability, or inability, to do that for himself and others is what will determine how good that pick is.

Kentucky mostly used Herro as a secondary on-ball threat, particularly at the end of their motion/weave stuff in the half-court. It’s telling (and smart) that they worked to shift the defense before having Herro attack. In general, attacking bent defenses is a good thing that often leads to advantage situations. In the case of Herro, giving him a head start was a way to hedge against his lack of on-ball juice (more on that shortly).

We’ll start here, though: Herro generated a combined 75 points on 68 possessions in pick-and-roll or isolation situations (passing included) last season, via Synergy. That’s not an incredibly large sample, but a 1.10 points per possession mark is pretty darn good. Mix in his efficiency as an off-the-bounce shooter (0.991 PPP, 82nd percentile) and tear dropper (1.08 PPP on floaters), and there are positive indicators of creation ability hiding in plain sight.

The pick-and-roll possessions are what I really want to focus on. Not only does that make up the majority of the creation sample (52 of the 68 possessions), it’s the area the Heat need the most help in. The Heat finished 29th in pick-and-roll ball-handler offense (passes included), generating just 92.1 points per 100 possessions.

I went back and watched all 52 of Herro’s logged pick-and-roll possessions on Friday, and tweeted about some of them on Twitter, which you can find here. More than anything, I wanted to get a feel on, well, his feel. How quickly was he processing the coverages being presented to him? What passes are in his arsenal? What’s his pace like? Does he make sound decisions? Were there any advanced flashes — putting defenders in jail, timing passes, weakside corner skips on the move — or did he just play things safe?

I’ll say this much: I understand why the Heat have optimism, even if I don’t necessarily agree with all of it.

Passing Chops

The first thing that stood out to me is that Herro doesn’t make outright bad decisions. He committed seven turnovers in his 52 pick-and-roll possessions; only three of them came as a passer. The context of him being a secondary option matters, but it also speaks to the trust (albeit small, in terms of the sample) he earned at Kentucky to finish possessions.

Herro seems to have solid recognition skills. That should translate well at the next level. He uses the early portions of possessions to diagnose how defenses defend ball screens, then often chooses the right method of attack once the ball swings his way.

Ashton Hagans runs a pair of pick-and-rolls. The first comes during the initial push in transition, and you’ll notice Mississippi State tries to “ICE” the screen — the perimeter defender positions his body to force Hagans down the sideline instead of allowing him to get to the middle of the floor. After Hagans resets, he calls for a high ball screen in the middle of the floor, revealing Mississippi State’s preferred method of defending by bringing the big man up to “catch” the driver.

Herro downloads all of this.

The ball eventually finds Herro, who already knows the big will show somewhat high on the screen. Equipped with that knowledge, Herro releases an early forward pass to a slipping PJ Washington, completely catching the defense out of position. The pass isn’t well thrown, but Washington corrals it and attacks before getting fouled.

You can see a similar thing happen here:

Again, Herro reads what the big defender is doing in pick-and-roll before using that information for himself. As he tries to attack to his left, the big steps up to contain the drive. That leaves a window for a pocket pass, which Herro executes well.

The one consistent thing across Herro’s pick-and-roll film is his ability to read the big. That’s a legitimate positive. The next step, and what would raise his ceiling as a playmaker, is to shift focus to the help defender. That’s what separate good pick-and-roll players from advanced ones. In fact, it’s one of the things Justise Winslow said he’s picked up from Dwyane Wade over the last year or so.

Herro isn’t making advanced reads yet. In the 52 pick-and-roll possessions he logged, I was only able to see two (2) skips to the weakside corner. Even within the context of looking for flashes, that’s a pretty low sample. You’d like to see more of those when trying to project him as a plus-playmaker on the next level.

The good news is that Herro does have good feel and makes pretty good decisions. That’s a solid foundation to expand off of. If the reports of Herro being an absurdly high-level worker are true, and they seem to be, it’s easy to be optimistic that he could become more.

Scoring Repertoire

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Tyler Herro is a bucket.

We’re working with a limited sample here, but his efficiency as a pick-and-roll scorer still pops off the screen. 31 points on 25 possessions. 13-of-20 clip from the field. Adjusted field goal percentage of 72.5!

Herro’s end-game was often the pull-up jumper. Via Synergy, 12 of his 20 shot attempts were off-the-bounce jimmies. He drilled seven of them, giving him a 58.3 percent clip. That number isn’t sustainable – we might actually be looking at a Curry-like shooter then – but the film is encouraging. His handle isn’t great (more on that later) but he’s able to quickly shift from dribbler to shooter in one fluid motion. His balance is superb, and that allows him to float into, or fade away into comfortable looks.

Herro’s ability to read the big here is key. He watches their feet, mixing in subtle fakes to keep them off-balance. He doesn’t need much time (or space) to flow into his jumper, so one false move is all he needs to capitalize on.

Herro’s intermediate touch is why the Heat are excited about his three-level scoring potential. He has the shot repertoire necessary to beat “Drop” coverage. That includes less-than-analytically-ideal shots like floaters. He shot 14-of-26 on runners this past season, though obviously they didn’t all come in pick-and-roll situations. Still, it’s a great tool to have in the bag.

The issue is that Herro doesn’t have a particularly advanced handle, which would be fine if he had the explosiveness to compensate. He, uh, does not have the explosiveness to compensate.

Herro just can’t consistently puncture defenses on his own merit. He needs a bent defense and a great screen to get downhill, and even that isn’t enough to create separation all of the time. If he can’t slither through creases, he’s forced into one-on-one scenarios that will be much harder than he faced at Kentucky. The athleticism jumps a tier or two in the NBA, as does the length of the defenders he’ll face.

Herro won with tough shots at Kentucky, but the margin for error was already pretty thin. It’s going to be virtually non-existent on the next level. It’s unclear how much better he’ll get as an athlete, but he has to get stronger and gain a better understanding of attacking angles.

I’m just … not sure I see three-level scoring upside with Herro. The pull-up shooting from middy and deep will likely translate. The finishing is worth the skepticism. He was flat-out bad around the basket last season. He needed the floater to be successful. At a certain point, the lack of vertical pop and length is hard to overcome. That especially hurts if you’re hoping there’s some Devin Booker-esque hidden upside as a primary creator.

I just…

If you're gonna be a two-level scorer as a guard, one of those levels has to be the rim.

It just has to be.

It just has to be.

It just. Has. To be.

— Jasmine Thomas Fan Acct. (@NekiasNBA) April 24, 2019

A small guy like Isaiah Thomas was always an elite finisher. Justise Winslow became a slightly-above average one last season, but he always had the first step (and size) to get to the rim whenever he wanted. Herro can’t consistently get there, and struggles to finish over length when he does.

One thing that’ll help for sure: he’ll have the best screen setters he’s had in his life.

Watching PJ Washington go through the motions as a screener was frustrating to me. I can’t imagine how Herro felt. The NBA is a spacier game in general. Bigger courts, better shooters. Getting lead blocks from Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk will give him even more space to work with. If you’re trying to find a path to success, it’ll be with the Heat giving him consistent head starts with off-ball action and hard screens, and Herro developing some craft or off-timing drives like a Goran Dragic.

There’s room for optimism with Herro offensively. As much as, uh, some people went to Tyler Johnson or Wayne Ellington comps, the film makes it clear that those examples are selling him short. There’s legit passing feel and pull-up equity present that the other two never had. Herro’s a little bigger than both, and will get stronger on the next level. There’s plenty to like here.

But if you’re hoping for a Booker or Donovan Mitchell-like surprise leap, you might want to hold your breath.

This is a re-post from last month…

Your Tankathon simulations were futile. Sorry. The Miami Heat will be drafting 13th.

With that finally being settled, the Heat Beat/Five Reasons crew will be rolling out some piping hot draft #content for you. We — as in myself, Greg “Leif “Sylvander, and Jack Alfonso — will kick things off with some general big boards, covering players that may be available around Miami’s range. We started with the guards; now it’s time to knock out the wings.

Tier 1

Cam Reddish, Duke, Freshman, Wing, 6’8” 218 lbs

Stats: 13.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 36/33/77 shooting split

Considered by many to be one of the most intriguing, yet unpredictable prospects at the top the 2019 draft class. Recent reports of the potential for Reddish to slide in the draft seemed impossible a year ago. His strength as a shooter seemed to fade as the season came to a close. That dip in outside shooting, combined with questions regarding his effort, intensity and defensive IQ have contributed to him potentially being this year’s Caron Butler or Justise Winslow who slides down the board.

Let’s start with the good. Reddish displays some of the traits that have drawn comparisons to Paul George, Gordon Hayward and Rashard Lewis. He’s a versatile scorer with outside shooting touch. His catch-and-shoot ability (particularly as a trailing player in secondary fast breaks) make him an attractive option for Miami who lack wing scoring and are intent on updating offensive schemes to help find ways to get easy buckets in transition. If he reaches his potential, Reddish’s upside is that of an All Star.

His lone year at Duke may be a sign that it may take more time for him to reach his potential than some anticipated. He struggled as a third banana alongside Zion Williamson and R.J Barrett. It felt like he could never find his groove in Duke’s cramped up offense, and that was reflected in his efficiency numbers.

That being said, his size, ball handling, passing and scoring make for a strong base skill set that eventually could blossom into the ability to even initiate offense from the wing, a la PG. He has the tools to be a good defender on the wing at the pro level. His 7-1” wing span is intriguing as the Heat continue to try to build a roster that is as position-less and switch-capable as possible.

In short – Reddish could be JR Smith or the next PG or discount bin KD. If he is there at 13, some within the Heat organization with Duke ties would be heavily inclined to select Reddish. -Leif

De’Andre Hunter, Virginia, Sophomore, Wing, 6’7”, 225 lbs

Stats: 15.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 52/44/78 shooting split

De’Andre Hunter is one of those prospects that can get you day-dreaming. Wingspan. Athleticism. Wingspan! Hunter has long arms. It may sound like a trivial thing to harp on, but it’s not. Miami’s three young guys are all versatile defenders, with the ability to guard at least two positions. Adding a guy like Hunter with his impressive wingspan, strong body, and consistent effort, could help turn the Heat into a nightmare for opposing offenses.

Hunter should be a good shooter at the next level. He also seems to be a smart guy with a feel for where to be on the floor. There aren’t any huge red flags in his game. The question for Hunter is, weirdly, upside. He’s not the youngest guy in the draft, and he’s not one of those guys who could just take over games at the college level. There isn’t much “shake” in his game, which puts a cap on his potential as a shot-creator.

I think Hunter will be a valuable role player on offense. If you’re looking for a go-to scorer, Hunter doesn’t seem to be that guy. If Miami calls his name on draft night, fans should still be thrilled. He just isn’t the sexiest prospect out there. -Jack

Tier 2

Sekou Doumbouya, France, N/A, Wing, 6’8 205

Stats (per 36): 13.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.0 blocks, 47/29/76 shooting split

Oooh, buddy, am I intrigued here.

Doumbouya is raw, but he has the kind of tools (hello, 7’2 wingspan!), athleticism chops, and ball skills to make him the type of late lottery flier the Heat should consider. There’s legit point-forward potential here, and that shines through when he’s running the open floor. He’s showcased some nice reads in half-court situations, but I’d like to see a little bit more.

He’s come on pretty strong overseas over the last month or so, getting accustomed to the physicality of playing against guys much older/stronger than he is. It’s not fair to make “Next Giannis” declarations; I have some questions (that’ll come in a breakdown further down the line) that gives me pause. However, it’s hard not to be excited about his ability to handle the ball and finish inside. His length and athleticism also makes him an ideal fit in a switch-y scheme, provided he gets stronger. -Nekias

Nassir Little, North Carolina, Freshman, Wing, 6’6 205

Stats: 9.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 48/27/77 shooting splits

Not many players disappointed relative to their pre-season hopes quite like this guy.

Little entered the season as one of the nation’s top five prospects, an tremendous athlete with an NBA-ready frame. He projected as arguably the best 3-and-D (and more) prospect in the class, but things quickly fell apart during his lone year at North Carolina.

Little showcased his athleticism in the open floor and show plus-impact as an on-ball defender. That’s pretty much where the positives ended. His lack of fluidity limited his shot creation abilities. The lack of feel reared its ugly head with questionable decisions with the ball, and a plethora of off-ball lapses on the other end.

There’s hope for him, of course. You can’t teach that kind of athleticism, and by all accounts he’s a tremendous young man with a great work ethic. The Heat would love him as a person. There’s a plus-shooter with the ability to abuse opponents on shaky close-outs in there. With more reps (and some patience), there’s potentially a good defender in there. For now, the mocks that have him going mid-late first round are well within reason.  -Nekias

Tier 3

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech, Sophomore, 6’5 205

Stats: 16.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 47/37/78 shooting split

I’m pretty confident calling NAW (boy, do I love that) one of the most skilled players in this draft. He isn’t just a good shooter, he’s a multidimensional one. He can make teams pay on spot-up attempts, come off pindowns or flares, or catch, pump, then fire off the bounce. There’s secondary creation ability to like, as he has all of the basic high pick-and-roll reads down. His ability to pull-up can hurt teams that employ “Drop” schemes”, and that’s certainly something the Heat need someone other than Josh Richardson to do on a consistent basis.

It’s cliche, but my concerns with NAW are all based on his athleticism. He just isn’t explosive, and I just worry that he won’t be the kind of three-level threat his skills should allow him to be. Airspaces will close quicker in the NBA. Teams are more physical at the rim, and he wasn’t this super elite finisher in college. He should be a fine team defender, and his near 6’10 wingspan should make him somewhat switchable. He may not be able to handle elite-quickness guys, but that’s what Josh Richardson or Justise Winslow should be there for. This would be a good value pick for the Heat if they trade back. -Nekias

Keldon Johnson, Kentucky, Freshman, Wing, 6’6, 211 lbs

Stats: 13.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 46/38, 70 shooting split

I’m sure Bam Adebayo wouldn’t be mad about getting to play with another high-flying Kentucky Wildcat.

Keldon Johnson has a lot of tools to be excited about. He’s an impressive athlete with a work ethic that could earn the adoration of the Miami Heat coaching staff. Physically, Keldon has everything you could possibly ask for in a young wing prospect. He has the potential to be a more-than-reliable defender, and his 38 percent accuracy from behind the arc should give people hope that he can do more than just jump at the next level. If Keldon puts it together he could be a valuable 3&D player with the ability to get out and finish in transition.

I have concerns about the shooting though. He shot a solid percentage in his one season at Kentucky, but his relatively low free throw percentage may be cause for concern with regard to his jumper. He’s certainly not a natural born shooter, and if he can’t succeed as a catch and shoot guy, his offensive utility becomes incredibly limited.

Johnson has good physical tools, but doesn’t seem like a guy you can count on to break down a defense. Creation in general seems like a question mark. He’s not a great passer or shooter. He isn’t the most creative scorer. I think Johnson has a spot in this league, but with his question marks on the offensive end, I worry that Miami is not that spot. -Jack

 

 

 

This is a re-post from late May….

Your Tankathon simulations were futile. Sorry. The Miami Heat will be drafting 13th.

With that finally being settled, the Heat Beat/Five Reasons crew will be rolling out some piping hot draft #content for you. We — as in myself, Greg “Leif “Sylvander, and Jack Alfonso — will kick things off with some general big boards, covering players that may be available around Miami’s range. We started with the guards and added the wings. Now it’s time to knock out the forwards.

Tier 1

Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga, Junior, Forward, 6’8” 215 lbs

Stats: 16.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 3.2 blocks, 71/27/69 shooting split

Can you say Miami Heat player? Defensive versatility is the calling card for Gonzaga’s best all around player last season. Clarke possesses the fast twitch athleticism and defensive IQ necessary to be an All-NBA defender. He has that type of upside on defense.

Clarke moves his feet on defense like Bam Adebayo when guarding quicker players and is explosive off the ground, especially on the 2nd or 3rd jump. These physical gifts help offset his lack of size as a projected 4 at the pro level. His versatility also should allow him to defend multiple positions, even as a small ball 5 or oversized 3. Again, the versatility is intriguing. Instincts and ability to slide into pretty much any defensive scheme make him a particularly intriguing option for the always defensive oriented Heat. His success as a pick and roll defender add to his intrigue as it pertains to fitting in Miami.

Clarke’s offensive development, particularly increasing his range to beyond 17 feet, will determine his offensive upside. He may end up a bit like Shawn Marion was as an offensive player, which while limited, can still be valuable. The one downside would be the Heat sorely lack offense and this pick would be almost solely about defense initially.

One scout I spoke with, on the condition of anonymity, said of Clarke: “Incredible finisher, great leaper, super mobile, excellent rim protector and shot blocker, can switch a bit on the perimeter, has some passing chops, shot is not completely broken. He was the 2nd, or at worst 3rd, best player in college basketball this year.”

While I personally think that opinion is probably on the slightly optimistic side for Clarke, it can’t be ignored that Clarke turned heads with his team first play and all around defensive dominance last season. Think Kenyon Martin meets Paul Millsap with a smidge of Jordan Bell, an evolved Taj Gibson and maybe even a little Paskal Siakam from a stylistic perspective. If the offensive scoring punch cannot be acquired at 13, I expect Clarke (if he makes it to 13) to be another primary player of consideration for Miami. -Leif

Tier 2

PJ Washington, Kentucky, Sophomore, Forward, 6’8” 235 lbs

Stats: 15.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 blocks, 52/42/66 shooting split

Early indications are the Heat are intrigued by the skill set and potential fit of Washington as a stretch 4 alongside the existing core of #TheKids. The Heat like the offensive versatility that Washington brings to the table. He’s also wiry strong in a way that lends itself to being able to eventually matchup physically with most 4s in the league. Heat strength and conditioning regiments will only further develop the already strong Kentucky forward.

While Washington is undersized in a traditional sense, measuring 6’ 6.5” barefoot and 6’8” in shoes, he has some of the physical traits that are typically coveted by Heat brass, posting 7′ 2.5” wingspan, 8′ 11” standing reach and 6.85% body fat. A front court duo of Adebayo and Washington has the potential to be a potent combination due to both players ability to pass and initiate offense. Heat fans will also recognize Washington’s signature elbow jumper, reminiscent of a similar shot cultivated by Mr. 305 himself Udonis Haslem.

Ball handling and post scoring project to be two of the biggest areas of opportunity for Washington to expand his game. Luckily those are not necessarily the aspects of the PF position necessary to fit alongside the Heat’s core, provided they eventually find a way to add another alpha play maker at another position.

Although some may say #13 may be a bit high for PJ Washington, he is currently among my leaders in the clubhouse should the Heat stay at 13. Although I will caution that is far too early to nail down the most likely candidates at the back of the lottery. Surprises are sure to unfold as the draft nears. That said, Heat fans should get to know PJ Washington. -Leif

Rui Hachimara, Gonzaga, Junior, Forward, 6’8 230

Stats: 19.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 59/42/74 shooting split

It’s easy to see the intrigue with Hachimara. He’s a good athlete with elite measurables (hello, 7’2 wingspan!) and has no issue getting buckets. The Heat not only need a bucket-getter, but a long term option at the 4. Hachimara appears to check those boxes.

He’s a monster in the mid-post with the ability to finish over and through contests. The three-point shot isn’t as good as the numbers advertise, but there’s enough touch there to project plus-impact in that regard.

There are just some very obvious holes that I can’t really get past.

The biggest one: Hachimura has virtually no feel for the game at all.

He’s an absolute train wreck defensively with no real ability to track two actions at the same time. It’s true that he hasn’t played basketball for long, but that’s also part of the problem. You can (mostly) improve your tangible skills with enough reps — ball-handling, shooting, finishing. Feel is a trait that you either have or you don’t. Unless you’re putting Hachimura in a switch-literally-everything scheme so he doesn’t have to think, it’s hard to see him being able to defend well enough to be a real impact player on the next level.

I want no parts. And don’t worry, he’ll be one of the players I break down with film to further hammer home the point. -Nekias

Tier 3

Grant Williams, Tennessee, Junior, Forward, 6’7 236

Stats: 18.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.5 blocks, 56/33/82 shooting split

We can get the negatives out of the way early. The perimeter stroke is questionable. Williams is very much a mid-post-and-in type of player. He projects as a 4 at the next level, and his size makes that an odd fit in Miami long term.

What makes Williams intriguing is what makes Hachimura a no-go as a prospect for me. He knows how to play the game. Williams sees the floor incredibly well and can make the skips needed to keep an offense flowing. Add in his ability to finish, and he projects as a guy that can dice teams up in short-roll situations. He’s also a darn good defender that doesn’t mind mixing it up with players with a size advantage.

A Williams selection would make the most sense if the Heat trade back to the 17-21 range. I’m not sure that happens, but he’s a Heat pick if I’ve ever seen it. -Nekias

Cam Johnson, North Carolina, Senior, Forward, 6’9” 210 lbs

Stats: 16.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 5146/81 shooting split

Johnson is an incredibly reliable shooter with beautiful form. In an NBA world where spacing is everything, on a Heat team that has often been desperate for snipers, a guy like Cam who can move well off ball and knock down shots consistently is precious as gold. Ideally, Johnson and J-Rich beyond the arc give Justise and Bam the space they need to work inside.

There are question marks though. I’m not particularly high on his defensive potential. He’s not a great athlete and he’s pretty lanky. He can possibly hold his own on defense, but I’ll be shocked if he’s ever above-average on that end.

The biggest concerns are his health and age. He’s already 23, which is fine, but he wouldn’t give the Heat much upside. He’s also had knee issues and hip surgery that call into question his ability to stay on the floor consistently. There’s a fit in Miami, but I think he’s a guy you trade back for.  -Jack

Mfiondu Kabengele FSU, Sophomore, Forward 6’10, 240 lbs

Stats: 13.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 50/37/76 shooting split

This is another under the radar prospect worth keeping an eye on for Miami. Kabengele is one of the best shooting big men in this draft. He has a nice stroke from mid-range and can also make open threes from everywhere. He’s physically imposing to the point that he is unlikely to be pushed around by very many NBA bigs from day one. His athleticism and potential for a potent face-up game are intriguing.

He reminds me of Serge Ibaka — not as good in the low post, but maybe a bit more versatile. Already being 22 years old may cap his upside, but it doesn’t concern me much. He’s still raw in many ways, so this pick would require patience. However, his combination of NBA frame, strength, and shooting make him worth monitoring. -Leif