Dolphins take an unnecessary risk on Rosen

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“Day Traders” often execute what is known in Stock Market parlance as a “Channel Trade.”

A “channel” is a tight trend line for a stock price, that goes from Support (down) to Resistance (up), consistently. This very tight trend is often called “consolidation” when the sentiment on the stock is positive. “The Street” considers this pattern, a sign of a dead/battleground stock, not to be invested in. The Day Trader however, can use this pattern, and the consistency of it for profit. In reality, what you are buying is not an appreciating asset, or something with growth potential. You are using technical factors for short term gain.

The Miami Dolphins just executed a channel trade.

Chris Grier, the general manager, executed a master stroke with the New Orleans Saints, by trading #48, and #116 for picks #62, and #202, and a 2020 second round pick. This move did come at some cost, (the 48th overall was positioned to get you any one of many good players available) but there was another shoe to drop soon. The Dolphins then quickly pivoted to shipping the 62nd overall, and a 2020 5th round pick to the Arizona Cardinals for former 10th overall pick in 2018, quarterback Josh Rosen.

Good trade, bad trade? What always matters is the player. Rosen was demonstrably awful last season, and on the face of it, this is a bad trade.

But no, what is the downside, asks the optimist.

“You got a 2020 2nd rounder.”

“He is not owed any real money.”

“He can still develop.”

These are the things being said to justify this trade. Yes, you recovered a 2nd rounder in the trade with New Orleans. But that does not make the picks you traded for Rosen expendable. Just the opposite. They are a waste. A channel trade made for a short term gain, with little chance for growth and, in my view, much greater downside potential than people think.

 

Full disclosure, I would have taken Josh Rosen at #11 in the 2018 NFL Draft, and said so on our 2018 NFL Draft Preview on the Three Yards Per Carry podcast.

I am not doing an “about face” however. I am making a new decision based on further information. You have outliers such as Troy Aikman, players that had very rough rookie campaigns that then went on to successful careers. But usually, if a QB prospect is destined to be good, he tends to show it right away. So, Rosen had some moments however, that make you think there is “more” there? Right? Right? Hello?

No. He did not. This is not hyperbole.

Josh Rosen played 14 games as a rookie. Of those 14 games, Rosen had below league average numbers, in completions, yards and passer rating in all 14 games. He had above league average numbers in QBR and yards per attempt once. Rosen’s 2018 campaign was historic in its futility, and it is rare,that a rookie QB never, ever, not once, shows any promise during that season. Rosen also managed to be extremely careless with the football. His 14 interceptions and his 10 fumbles made this one of the worst QB seasons in NFL history.

But he went 10th overall, and you get him for #62 this year!

No. He went 10th overall, and depreciated into a trade to recoup assets that were used to move up in 2018, while declaring a total loss. This was a liquidation sale. This trade, by any measure, was lopsided in Arizona’s favor. Josh Rosen had/has no value. The Cardinals had no leverage. The Dolphins accommodated Arizona by buying its quickly depreciating asset. Why? What for? The Dolphins now own that asset, and all that comes with it. The poor play, the whispers of his difficult personality, the wasted time devoted to his development, and the risk that it endangers plans to explore the 2020 QB class.

Even if the most likely scenario happens (Josh Rosen flames out in 2019, and the Dolphins are right in the thick of the QB prospect derby) you are still out the picks you paid for essentially a backup QB. This was wasteful management of draft capital. Think of this: What would Rosen need to do, short of becoming a star in year 2, to justify this trade? There is no way you won’t entertain the stacked QB class of 2020. So #62 and a 2020 5th rd. pick for a 1 year rental? For what? The surest way to damage the franchise, and get yourself and others around you fired is to keep buying increasing shares of depreciating assets. That is what occurred here. I remain hopeful about Chris Grier, but no longer as optimistic. As a fan of the team, I want him to succeed, so Josh Rosen just gained a big fan, but a short term outlook and chasing the assets of yesterday are a bad look and, worse, a bad sign.

 

Alfredo Arteaga (@UptownReport) is a host of Three Yards Per Carry. Photo screenshot taken from @Josh3Rosen.

Dolphins’ pick of Wilkins seems safe, smart

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DAVIE – How about it, Dolfans, are you jumping for joy about the pick of Christian Wilkins in the first round Thursday?

The ebullient defensive tackle from Clemson was after Miami selected him with the 13th pick. Wilkins was so delighted he leaped shoulder-first into stunned NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and followed it up with a chest bump and bear hug.

Whether or not Miami GM Chris Grier and Co. made the right call in selecting Wilkins over Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins – there were several other solid options on the boards at several positions – will be the debate that follows this Dolphins draft.

The first one to weigh in on that was Wilkins.

“He told us it was the best decision we ever made when we picked him,” Grier said.

Wilkins is immediately likable and interesting, and certainly not lacking for confidence. He said he can’t wait to get to Miami and try to help fill the void of Dwyane Wade’s retirement.

He’s got a winning personality. Now he must back it up on the field. That will take time to play out.

But it’s tough to quibble with the first choice. If the Dolphins considered Haskins the quarterback they’ve been seeking, he was there for them. Some other teams with quarterback needs also lacked conviction about Haskins before the Redskins took him two picks after the Dolphins grabbed Wilkins.

The big surprise was the Giants picking Duke’s Daniel Jones at No. 6. They will groom him as the successor to Eli Manning, whom he resembles in stature and style.

But the current NFL quarterback that most comes to mind in watching Jones is Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins, who showed some interest in Jones in recent weeks, certainly didn’t need to reprise that episode.

It was no surprise Miami opted for a defense player, considering coach Brian Flores’ background as a defensive coach in New England. Marion Hobby, the Dolphins’ new defensive line coach, recruited Wilkins and coached him as an assistant at Clemson.

What the Dolphins got Thursday was a needed building block. If this rebuilding team doesn’t lay a solid foundation on the offensive and defensive lines it won’t get far.

For all their shortcomings in 2018, none was more glaring than their inability to stop anyone.

An offensive lineman in one of the next two rounds would make sense with only Laremy Tunsil the only starter with pedigree.

Eventually, they must find a quarterback to lead them into playoff contention. But the available quarterback choices didn’t seem worthy of the No. 13 pick this time. As Grier pointed out recently, quarterbacks in the first round are hit-and-miss.

They may yet select a quarterback in this draft to compete with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, or that may become the top priority in 2020, when Tua Tagovailoa heads what is regarded as a loaded crop of passers.

The Dolphins have plenty of work to do in roster building before then. That began and continues the next two days.

This draft carries extra importance for the Dolphins because they have committed to building with young talent after striking out with high-priced free agents and other veteran signees in recent years.

 For this to be a clear success they need to land starting level talent in the first three rounds. It’s not easy to do, but it’s long past time for the Dolphins to exceed the norm.

Poor drafting has held Miami back for the past two decades and a big reason they’ve won just one game in the postseason this millennium.

This is Grier’s fourth year directing the Dolphins’ draft. The previous three have been a mixed bag in the crucial top three rounds.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, Laremy Tunsil and Xavien Howard were solid editions. Others, including Charles Harris, Mike Gesicki and Cordrea Tankersley have yet to pan out, and linebackers Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker are starters but still have some convincing to do that they are long-term answers.

Wilkins looks like a solid choice to start with. If the No. 1 pick was correct in his assessment, Grier only needs six comparable decisions over the next two days.

 

Craig Davis (@CraigDavisRuns) is a veteran newspaper writer who now contributes to Dolphin Maven and Five Reasons Sports, among other outlets. 

Dolphins Fans React To Christian Wilkins Pick

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With the 13th pick, the Miami Dolphins select…

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Today is the day, folks.

After months of speculating and smokescreens, the 2019 NFL Draft is finally upon us.

And unlike year’s past, NO ONE knows what the Dolphins plan to do during this weekend’s draft.

What we do know, however, is that the team has a plethora of holes to fill.  Miami desperately needs to address; quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, defensive back and safety.  Wide receiver and linebacker could also be viewed as positions of need.  Nonetheless, Chris Grier and his hired henchman, will look to find elite talent at areas of need.

Here’s a look at what the contributors at Five Reasons Sports believe the Dolphins will do in the first round.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Chris Wittyngham – Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
” I judge the NFL Draft based off of who did I fear the University of Miami playing. It’s why Daniel Jones can’t be good as an NFL player. I didn’t even know there was an NFL Draft pick opposing UM at quarterback when they played. And I didn’t know there was an NFL Draft pick opposing UM at quarterback after they played, even though Duke beat the Hurricanes. In that vein, the proposition of UM fraudulently winning the coastal and being smashed by Clemson up front was enough to make me not want UM to win the Coastal. So Clelin Ferrell it is.”

 

Ethan Skolnick – TRADE DOWN

What will the Dolphins likely do Thursday?

What they did so often under genius Adam Gase.
Punt.
Only this time it will be for the best. Miami isn’t one player, or two players, or even five players away. This is the time to accumulate picks, the way Jimmy Johnson did in 1996 and 1997. Take as many shots as you can. Maybe there’s a Zach Thomas in there somewhere.
So my guess: trade down, probably trade out of the first round.

 

Ricky J. Marc – Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
“It really seems like the Dolphins, after nearly two decades of post-Marino mediocrity, are prepared to turn over the kind of new leaf that has been at least seven years coming. Miami needs a QB. Say what you will about Marino’s legacy as it concerns winning a Super Bowl, but Miami hasn’t even been within striking distance of serious contention since the franchise’s last great rifleman retired.
Dwayne Haskins has the potential to be the best QB in this draft in what is likely another throwaway season for Miami. He finished in the top five last season in completion rate with 70% and third in the running for the Heisman Trophy. If he pans out under Flores, great—Miami has a quarterback for the future. If he doesn’t, life goes on. I just want to see some talent at the QB again.
Oh, and I’m still waiting for Miami to sign Colin Kaepernick. Clock’s ticking, Mr. Ross.”

 

Jeremy Tache – Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

“Because Dolphins”

 

Tito Benach –  Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

“The Dolphins go with Wilkins to pair him next to Davon Godchaux and shore up their run defense that hasn’t been a very productive unit in a long time. Adding Wilkins, a powerful and agile 3 technique, would be the first step to fixing the defensive line and open lanes for the linebackers to make more plays at the line of scrimmage.

The tempting option would be to potentially select an edge rusher; Clelin Ferrel and Montez Sweat seem like popular names, but reports have surfaced that Sweat’s medicals have scared teams off and he could slide as a result and Ferrel may even be taken before 13. For that reason, Dolphins take Wilkins and have two young, solid defensive tackles.”

 

Tony Capobianco – Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
“Lock it in!”

 

Carlos Jorge – Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
“I believe they will trade back. But if they stay at 13, I think the pick will be Wilkins from Clemson. It’s good place to start a rebuild in the trenches! Defense wins championships “

 

Josh Houtz – Jeffrey Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
“A lot of uncertainty surrounds the Dolphins and the #13 pick.  They could trade down, or up, depending on the talent available when Chris Grier is on the clock.  Haskins won’t be available and the odds of Jawaan Taylor or Jonah Williams falling out of the top-10 is slim to none.  Yes, there are plenty of defensive line options, but none more talented than Mississippi State’s Jeffrey Simmons.  He might not be able to play in 2019, but for a team looking to #tank this upcoming season, a red-shirt like Simmons is the right fit.  I bet Brian Flores is licking his chops at the very thought of Simmons in South Beach.”
Who do you think the Dolphins will select in the first-round?

Thirteen possible players for the Dolphins

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The NFL Draft is one day away.

I repeat, the 2019 NFL Draft is one day away.

With the draft quickly approaching, NFL teams are beginning to finalize their draft boards in anticipation for the big day.  After all, teams anxiously await for the draft every year, as it remains the last hurdle before the new NFL season begins.  Free Agency will remain the mainstay for adding proven talent for way, way too much money.  But good teams are built through the draft and that’s exactly what the new regime is hoping to accomplish.

Miami currently holds six picks in the 2019 draft.  Which means unless an elite player falls helplessly into their lap at 13, they’re going to move heaven and hell to trade down.  That’s not to say it will work, or that an elite player won’t fall, but the Dolphins are going to be on the move this draft season.  And will look to sure up their biggest needs which include [ QB/OL/DL/DB/S ]

Here are 13 potential players the Dolphins could select at #13 in this year’s NFL draft.

Dwayne Haskins, Quarterback, Ohio State

The odds that Dwayne Haskins falls to the Dolphins at #13 have seemingly increased over the last several weeks.  And depending on who you ask, Haskins has slowly become the No.3 QB according to respected experts and analysts alike.  Personally, I think he has all the traits you look for in a franchise quarterback.  And if somehow, someway he’s still available when the Dolphins are on the clock, you run to the podium with the pick.  Oh yeah, and for those who don’t recall, Stephen Ross was in attendance for the Wolverines game vs Ohio State this past season.  Michigan came into the game with the country’s No.1 ranked defense, before Dwayne Haskins completed 20/31 for 396 yards and 6 touchdowns.  For better or for worse, it got Stephen Ross’ attention.

Ed Oliver, Defensive Tackle , Houston

We continue to hear Ed Oliver’s name mocked to the Miami Dolphins, but for what reason I do not know.  The versatile defensive lineman from Houston, amassed 54 total tackles in 2018.  Dig a little deeper and you will see his 14.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks.  Throughout this draft process, Oliver has been the one player highly regarded by many as the next Aaaron Donald.  Now I know what you’re thinking, there’s no way this dude is that good.  Maybe not.  But to think he’s going to be available for the Dolphins in any scenario, is extremely unlikely.  Simply put,  Ed Oliver is the Minkah Fitzpatrick pick in this class.  His versatility is perfect for what Brian Flores and his coaching staff desire on the defensive line.  And if he’s available when Miami is on the clock, the pick could not be any easier.

Jaawan Taylor, Offensive Tackle, Florida

Drafting an offensive lineman with a top-15 draft pick will never be the sexy choice.  But once you start to realize how valuable trench play is to the success of an NFL team, it doesn’t look so bad on the surface.  After all, the ‘trenches’ is where games are won and loss.  And it’s safe to say several games in 2018 were lost due to poor offensive line play.  (Cough, Cincinnati, Cough) Nevertheless, after being outbid for Ja’Wuan James during free agency, the Dolphins have an opening at right tackle.  Yes, Jesse Davis is a potential in-house replacement, but Taylor is the best of this year’s class.  If quarterback is the plan in 2020, building the offensive line is a very wise decision.  Especially if the target is left-handed QB Tua Tagovailoa.

Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State

Every year, there’s a player or two I become enamored with throughout the draft process.  This year, that player is Florida State’s Brian Burns.  In 2018, Burns combined for 10 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 53 total tackles.  He was a pass rushing maven and proved  he could play at a multitude of positions on the Seminole’s defensive line.  His lanky frame isn’t overly concerning, but Burns could definitely benefit from adding additional mass at the next level.    Adding Burns to a Dolphins defense severely lacking a pass rusher would be a very smart move towards creating one of the league’s top defenses.

Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

As we have heard from some of the NFL’s biggest draft analysts, Montez Sweat might not be the best player on Mississippi State’s defensive line.  In fact, Jeffrey Simmons would likely be a top-5 pick if he were healthy.  A recent medical red-flag regarding his heart condition, has some teams rearranging their draft boards.  Again, a trade down would be ideal. but I fully expect Sweat to be drafted at the back end of round one, or top of round 2.  I believe Sweat will have success in the NFL, despite his concerns.

Christian Wilkins, Defensive Tackle, Clemson

Miami’s new defensive line coach is Marion Hobby, who spent several years with the Clemson Tigers.  Hobby has familiarity with many of Clemson’s top draft prospects, including Dexter Lawrence, Clelin Ferrell, and the aforementioned Wilkins.  Throughout his collegiate career, Wilkins proved to be a difference maker all over the Tiger’s defensive line.  And despite not getting a ton of recognition as one of the draft’s top prospects, it would surprise no one if his name was called before the bottom half of the draft.  Miami’s defense could use a player with his versatility and skill-set.

Jonah Williams, Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Much like Taylor, Williams could very well be off the board by the time the Dolphins are on the clock at 13.  Nevertheless, he’s a versatile lineman that has played against some of the best pass rushers in college football.  His ability to play offensive tackle and offensive guard at an elite level, makes him an intriguing prospect for every team desperate for offensive line help.  Williams should make a near flawless transition to the NFL game, and could be a Pro Bowl starter in year one.

Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson

Ferrell was a dominant run-stopper at Clemson and as 3 Yard’s Per Carry reported earlier this week, has a very good relationship with Dolphins defensive line coach Marion Hobby.  Ferrell does all the little things right and as I mentioned in the recent weeks, he reminds me of a younger, faster William Hayes.  Hayes, who many remember, was stout vs the run.  He also made an impact as a pass rusher.  I see Ferrell as a more polished prospect than Charles Harris.  I would not be surprised one bit if Ferrell is the pick at 13.

Jeffery Simmons, Defensive Tackle, Mississippi State

Simmons has slowly become my favorite option for the team at 13.  Miami is unlikely to compete in 2019, so taking a red-shirt freshman that can fully recover and make an impact when the Dolphins are ready to compete would be in the team’s best interest.  Obviously, a trade down would be ideal.  But you can’t pass on an opportunity to draft an elite player..  During his 2018 campaign he amassed 63 total tackles, 18 for loss and 2 sacks.

Greedy Williams, Cornerback, LSU

Williams, by most accounts, is considered the top defensive back in this year’s class.  And as Alfred Arteaga of 3 Yards Per Carry has mentioned over the last several weeks, he’s a legit possibility for the Dolphins at 13.  Williams might be the best press corner in this year’s class, which is a significant need for a team that has Xavien Howard and Bobby McCain as their top defensive backs.  That is assuming Flores decides to keep Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety.  Nevertheless, drafting Williams would be a great pick for a team looking to transition to a dime defense.

Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan

Ask anyone what the Dolphins biggest need is outside of quarterback, and pass rusher should be at the top of that list.  Unfortunately for Gary, a recent report of a torn labrum could see him fall mercifully in Thursday’s draft.  His boom or bust potential has always made him an intriguing prospect for Miami at 13.  And then there’s the obvious Michigan ties, which has to be a positive for the Wolverine’s top booster, Stephen Ross.  Gary should still go in round one, but would be a more obvious choice via trade down.  Nonetheless, whichever team drafts him, should get a versatile starter for many years to come.

Andre Dillard, Offensive Tackle, Washington State

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI5Ie9iob3A

In recent weeks, Dillard has sky-rocketed up NFL team’s draft boards.  A one time late first-round pick, could find himself drafted within the top-15 of Thursday’s draft.  Dillard may be better in pass protection than Taylor, but the difference between the two prospects is minor. If Miami is truly all in on Tua in 2020, they will need a right tackle to protect his blindside.  Aside from Taylor and Williams, Dillard is the top tackle in this year’s class.  Offensive lineman might not be a sexy pick, but he would make an immediate impact opposite of Laremy Tunsil, for many, many years to come.

Drew Lock, Quarterback, Missouri

Lock is a wildcard and for a team enamored by Josh Allen a year ago, if he falls their could be some interest.  After all, Lock is a more accurate and polished passer than Allen.  The only significant difference is Allen’s rocket launcher of an arm.  Denver seems like an obvious choice for the Missouri quarterback but if he’s available at 13, the Dolphins could be faced with a tough decision.  Should they wait until 2020? Or take a quarterback that could be a starter in the NFL for many years to come.  Whatever they decide, if a quarterback is their choice, the internal clock will begin ticking for Chris Grier and Brian Flores.

Josh Houtz (@Houtz) cooks in his spare time, when he’s not working on 65 things for Five Reasons Sports Network and Dolphin Maven

 

Premier League

Manchester City vs. Liverpool: The Final Countdown

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With two goals from Bernardo Silva (’54) and second-half substitute Leroy Sané (’66), defending champions Manchester City have defeated crosstown rivals Manchester United 2-0 in yet another edition of the Manchester Derby.

The win moves City temporarily (?) past league leaders Liverpool FC atop the table with three games to play and a sizable goal differential lead.

This is it.

Three Premier League games will decide this season’s Premier League Champion.

Not surprisingly, with the Premier League title still up for grabs, it’s now down to the following clubs:

Manchester City: the defending champion, who became the first Premier League club to finish a campaign with 100 points total in 2017-18, winning the title in dominating fashion; and

Liverpool FC: the upstart contenders dating back to the second half of last season, themselves emulating City’s 2018 start with an unbeaten run of their own behind the dazzling play of Mo Salah, Sadio Mané, and Roberto Firmino.

Salah, tied for the league lead in goals scored (19), has been named one of TIME’s 100 most influential people.

Liverpool have three Premier League matches remaining: Huddersfield (20th), Newcastle (13th), and Wolves (7th). Huddersfield have already been relegated.

In between those matches, they have two Champions League semifinal matches with European powerhouse FC Barcelona.

After finishing as runners-up to Real Madrid in last season’s UEFA Champions League campaign, Liverpool will be faced with the decision of prioritizing which matches to field a full team for stamina purposes.

This will surely tax Liverpool’s reserves. The Reds last won the Champions League in 2004-05.

Like Liverpool, City also have three matches left: Leicester City (10th), Burnley (15th), and Brighton & Hove Albion (17th). Brighton, just three points clear of relegation (34 points), will fight to ensure that they don’t trade places with Cardiff City (31 points) between now and mid-May.

With just three matches left (and nine points up for grabs), anything is possible.

Leicester will be fighting with Wolves for 7th, so none of these fixtures should be treated as easy wins for City.

City also have an FA Cup Final vs. Watford to concern themselves with, but that won’t be a worry until after the Premier League champion has been decided.

Because of tonight’s victory over United, City can become back-to-back Premier League champions by winning out, becoming the first club to repeat since United did it in 2008-09.

However, should Liverpool win out and City drop points with a draw or loss, the lead will remain firmly with the Reds, effectively crowning them champions for the first time since 1990-91, when they won the English Football League.

UPDATE: Here is how the Premier League will be decided this coming weekend.

The final breakdown for the Premier League’s last day, as it concerns Manchester City and Liverpool.

So who will be crowned champion? Stay tuned to NBC Sports—it’s setting up to be a wild finish this season.

—

Born in Brooklyn and raised in Boca Raton, Ricky J. Marc is an alumnus of the Obama White House and Cornell Paris Institute, a former Florida Senate Legislative Aide, and a graduate of St. Thomas University with a Master of Science in Sports Administration, where he is also currently completing his Juris Doctor degree.

You can follow him on Twitter at @RickyJMarc.

Should the Heat Take a Flier on DeMarcus Cousins?

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If you stay up for West Coast playoff games, you’re being treated — and I use that term loosely — to the Kevin Durant Revenge Tour.

Following the largest single-game collapse in playoff history, Durant has led the Golden State Warriors to back-to-back double digit wins. He went for an efficient 38-4-7 in Game 3, then followed that up with 33-7-6 in Game 4.

Noticeably missing from those wins was DeMarcus Cousins. The former All-Star is likely done for the postseason after tearing his quad. It’s a disappointing end to a season that was trending upwards. Cousins took a (financial) gamble on himself by accepting the mid-level exception in hopes of setting himself up for a big payday this summer. The injury obviously compromises that goal.

Enter the Miami Heat.

Well, maybe.

As of now, the Heat aren’t expected to have cap space. That could change, depending on what Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic decide to do with their player options. If both players opt out, the Heat could have roughly $15 million in cap space to play with. It’s not quite enough to get in the room for superstars like Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving, but that could put them in the room for guys that fall a couple of tiers below that level.

It’s hard to envision anyone throwing a long-term, high-dollar deal at Cousins at this point. He’s suffered a torn Achilles and a torn quad in consecutive seasons. Hitching your wagon to Cousins without proof that he’ll be a high level player — or that he can hold up — would essentially be malpractice.

A one-year flier, however, is an interesting scenario to think about. If the price range falls between $5-8 million (mid-level exception range), the Heat could be an intriguing option for Cousins. If the Heat have any edge right now, it’s the reputation of getting reclamation projects paid.

WHY IT MAKES SENSE

Quick — who is Miami’s best scorer?

Did you answer Dion Waiters, the bulky guard with the quick first step and even quicker trigger?

Is it Goran Dragic, equipped with his Iron Shoulder and fancy footwork?

How about Josh Richardson, the Heat’s leading scorer with a budding pull-up game?

Regardless of who you chose, did you feel good about your answer? I would imagine the answer is no.

This is where the flier begins to make sense. For a team that lacks a reliable go-to option, Cousins could possibly provide that. As a glorified 4th option, Cousins averaged 16.2 points in a little under 26 minutes a night this season.

Much like the year before, Cousins flashed the ability to dictate games from the mid-post and in. He’s able to devastate weaker defenders with his brute strength on the low block. If he doesn’t put defenders underneath the hoop, he has an array of fakes and impressive footwork at his disposal to get to his spots.

What makes him more dangerous is his passing ability. The Warriors liked to station him at the elbow — and sometimes here — to get into their post split action. Cousins was able to showcase the nice touch he has on bounce passes and lobs.

If Cousins simply returns to the form he showed this season, he’d be Miami’s most dynamic scorer and, at worst, their third best passer. It’s easy to envision him drawing help on the low block, then kicking it out to either Josh Richardson or Justise Winslow for them to attack a scrambling defense. For a Heat team that struggled to score, they need someone that can force defenses to rotate on a whim. Cousins can be that guy.

A lineup of Winslow,Waiters, Richardson, Bam Adebayo, and Cousins would feature five players that can pass and attack bent defenses. You would have to bank on Cousins regaining form as a shooter (27.4 percent on 3.2 attempts last year), but I’d argue that giving him more interior touches would allow him to establish a rhythm easier. Cousins wouldn’t make the Heat a top-ten offense on his own, but pushing the Heat towards the middle of the pack would be a massive win.

WHY IT DOESN’T MAKE SENSE

For a lot of folks, I imagine what Cousins could bring to the offense would outweigh any concerns they may have about his impact on the other end of the floor. I can’t pretend to be that guy.

Cousins was mostly fine as an interior defender. Via Synergy, opponents scored 0.541 points per post-up possession against Cousins, a mark that placed him in the 98th percentile. Opponents shot a shade over 45.1 percent at the basket (non-post ups) against Cousins, a stat that also comes courtesy of Synergy.

But this is when I remind you that Cousins spent 457 of his 771 minutes (nearly 60 percent) with Draymond Green and Klay Thompson on the floor with him. The Warriors had a 104.3 defensive rating in those minutes; that number ballooned to 115.4 with those two off the floor.

It’s much easier for big men to protect the rim when driving opportunities are limited, and the lanes are cramped when they get there. Still, Cousins is insanely strong and has quick hands in his own right. He’s averaged at least 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks in seven of his nine seasons.

But if you’re looking for the Heat to return to the playoffs and make legitimate noise, you have to think about who can be effective in a playoff setting. Cousins’ inability to defend in space leaves him susceptible to high pick-and-roll attacks. He isn’t nimble enough to hang with guards on switches, nor does he recover out to stretch bigs in a timely manner. With the torn quad, it’s possible he looks even worse on that end next year.

What would that look like in a series against, say, the Boston Celtics if they retain Kyrie Irving and Al Horford?

The Heat have a host of fine defenders; the Winslow-Richardson-Adebayo trio is incredibly rangy. But it may be pretty difficult to cover for him enough to make his offensive talents worth it.

Even that portion of the fit is questionable, depending on what your view of #TheKids are. If you feel like Adebayo could have a trajectory similar to Toronto’s Pascal Siakam, or if there’s another level for Winslow to reach, prioritizing (cheaper) spacers so they can soak up more on-ball reps may be a better long-term play.

 

Nekias Duncan (@NekiasNBA) of Miami Heat Beat is currently taking a flier on Game of Thrones. 

Final 2019 NFL/Dolphins Mock Draft: Greed is Good

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This is my last and final attempt at a Mock for this Draft Season and, after some uncertainty as to what some teams were thinking the top of this draft has become a little muddled. Once you get past the top two picks there are many ways you can go with each team/draft slot. As for your Miami Dolphins, it’s a certainty that they prefer to trade down and take one of Greedy Williams or Deandre Baker (that is my educated guess), but for the purposes of this Mock Draft, the Dolphins get a versatile, front line player.

1. CARDINALS – Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

No change here. Newly minted Cardinals Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury famously “called his shot” in October of 2018, as he said he would take Kyler Murray with the 1st overall pick if he could. Well, now he does. Josh Rosen ends up traded for 30 cents on the dollar to somebody that had a high grade on him in 2018.

2. 49ERS – Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State

Just a reminder that I was told that little brother Nick was better than big brother, pro bowler Joey. I was told this during Nick’s Freshman year at St. Thomas Aquinas.it shows on film. Nick Bosa is the best player in this draft, and one of the best Defensive End prospects in years.

3. JETS – Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

I have struggled with this one due to Josh Allen being such a good fit, but Quinnen Williams has solidified his draft stock in recent weeks, as a can’t miss interior Defensive Line prospect. Couple him with standout Leonard Williams, and you begin to have something on Defense.

4. RAIDERS – Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqWH6dOWTLw
John Gruden, and Mike Mayock famously “sent home” their entire Scouting staff this past week, and if the board shakes out like I have it here, they won’t need them to make this pick. Josh Allen gets comparisons to Demarcus Ware, and this writer, sees it. Raiders get a replacement for Khalil Mack at #4.

5. BUCCANEERS – Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

No change here, The writing is on the wall for Gerald McCoy, and he could be on the way out of Tampa Bay. A Trade of McCoy can save the Bucs some valuable cap space for Bruce Arians squad. Releasing him outright is not far fetched either. Best case scenario for McCoy fans is that you plug in a Ed Oliver to pay alongside McCoy in what could be one of the better DT tandems in the league. The more likely scenario is that Ed Oliver will replace McCoy, as the athletically Freakish Oliver has drawn some comparisons to All World DT Aaron Donald.

6. GIANTS – Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

Ok, you have seen the rumors of Daniel Jones being the pick here, but I don’t buy it. First of all, Haskins is clearly the better prospect, and taking Jones at #6 is the reach of all reaches. Passing on Haskins at this pick can prove to be fatal for your hopes of landing him later, even in a trade up (possibly with Miami?). Makes too much sense to just take Haskins here, and I am sticking to my guns on this one, Haskins to New York.

7. JAGUARS – T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

I initially had the Jaguars benefitting from Quinnen Williams dropping to them in my first Mock draft, but in this one, he is not available. You just spent in excess of $22 million a year for a shiny new quarterback in Nick Foles and the Jaguars seem pretty devoid of skill talent, to compliment him. T.J. Hockenson along with Hakeem Butler are my best offensive players available at this point, and seeing as Butler is dropping on some boards, the Jags step up and get a guy that NFL Network’s own Bucky Brooks says is a “Gold Jacket Candidate”.

8. LIONS – Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan

No change here, it’s too good a fit. Ziggy Ansah is a Free Agent and is likely not to return to Matt Patricia’s defense. Rashan Gary is a Michigan product that is exactly the type of versatile Defensive lineman that a Patricia defense craves. Some would say that this is a reach taking Gary this high, but the team, need, and player are too perfect a fit.

9. BILLS – Devin White, LB, LSU

No change once again. This is a no brainer at this point. Buffalo has some talent on Defense, but are devoid of a volume tackler in the linebacker unit. Drafting Devin White would also be a big boost for 2018 Draftee Tremaine Edmunds, who was playing somewhat out of position most of his rookie year. Devin White could be the best of a very strong Linebacker class. The Bills can use one. They get one at #9.

10. BRONCOS – Devin Bush, LB, Michigan

For as long as we remember, Drew Lock has been tied to the Broncos here by one insider or another. It never works that way, this far down in the draft. They are not taking him folks. So what else makes sense? Nick Chubb and Von Miller make a lot of sense. What makes sense is to get a guy in between those two stars to anchor this defense. Devin Bush is that guy. Sideline to sideline, playmaker as a “fill/spill” linebacker. Fearless, relentless, and would be the best linebacker in this draft if Devin White wasn’t so good. The one/two punch at LB in this year’s draft is as good or better than any in the last two years.

11. BENGALS – Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson

This has been a fluid spot, and your guess is as good as mine. So I am just going to go BPA (Best Player Available) for them here. Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins, Carl Lawson, Jordan Willis, and now Christian Wilkins makes for a very strong Defensive Line. It is conceivable that Wilkins can play in every technique, and in every position along the defensive line. That is a good thing to have. In a division where you have to contend with Big Ben, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson, a strong pass rush is the quickest path toward contention. Wilkins is a no brainer if the board shakes out this way.

12. PACKERS – Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzQ2IdJK22A
No change here, the Pack get very lucky to have Taylor drop to them . The best Offensive Tackle in the draft. David Bakhtiari returns as one of the best LT’s in football to protect Aaron Rodgers’ blindside, but Bryan Bulaga has not been reliable at RT as of late, due to injury and some ineffectiveness. The window to win in Green Bay is now, and Taylor is the most NFL ready Tackle available. He starts at RT for the Packers from day 1.

13. DOLPHINS – Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

I wrote this about a month ago: “For a team with many needs, why would they ad a player to a position group that is already pretty good? Precisely. Might as well start becoming “elite” at something. I’m a big fan of Reshad Jones, but I realize he is not for long for the Miami Dolphins and the real core of the secondary is All Pro CB Xavien Howard and now 2nd year standout, the versatile Minkah Fitzpatrick. Let’s face it, the Fins are under-manned to play the coverages and defenses that Head Coach Brian Flores wants to play. Greedy Williams reminds me of Antonio Cromartie or Aqib Talib. A perfect compliment to Xavien Howard as a boundary corner. Greedy is also very good in Man coverage, the style of coverage that Flores gravitates toward. Greedy, Xavien, Minkah is a head start on rebuilding this defense.”

It still stands today. Cold take me if you want, but the Patriots are notorious for a bent toward man coverage (1st in Man Coverage % last year, 2nd the year before) and the Dolphins just added their Defensive Coordinator as the new Head Coach. It’s not brain surgery to think that Brian Flores / Chris Grier will look at the best Man Coverage corner in the draft, see him alongside Xavien Howard, Minkah Fitzpatrick and think that they this is the fastest way back to relevance. A great secondary is a good thing to have. The Dolphins get almost 100% of the way there with one pick. Greedy Williams at #13, or maybe in a trade down? Anyway, Greedy Williams is the pick.

To quote a movie hero of mine Gordon Gekko, “Greed for lack of a better word, is Good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms, greed for life, for money, for love, for building a strong, imposing secondary in the NFL has marked the upward surge of mankind.” (I took severe liberties with that quote.) Anyway, time to get Greedy.

 

Alfredo Arteaga (@UptownReport) is one of the three hosts of Three Yards Per Carry, which posts once per week during the offseason and twice during the season.

GREENWICH ENTERTAINMENT

Screwball Proves Billy Corben is the Best Documentarian, Because Florida

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F&%k A Movie Theater is your weekly to bi-weekly to probably once a month guide to the best movies you can watch through streaming services. So skip the traffic, the crowds, the $472 popcorn and soda, the screaming babies, and the fart-filled seats of the movie theater, stay home, and stream some shit in the comfort of your own home. This week F&%k A Movie Theater reviews Screwball.

 

The latest Racontur documentary Screwball proves that Billy Corben is the best documentarian, because fuck Ken Burns. No filmmaker is as good at capturing the complete and colossal fuckery that is South Florida’s underbelly quite like Corben does. He did it with Cocaine Cowboys, Cocaine Cowboys Reloaded, and Square Grouper. And now he’s gone and done it again.

Screwball, which you can now stream on iTunes and Amazon, is Corben’s latest foray into the cartoonish weirdness that is South Florida, and further proof that when anything shady happens anywhere in the world, there is always and inevitably a connection to the Sunshine State. And Corben is so masterful at telling these stories, we kind of forgive him for that whole “Because Florida” schtick he always does on every….single…tweet…he…. sends… out….. WE GET IT, BILLY. JESUS.

Seriously though, Screwball is more than what you think it is. Yes, it’s about Miami’s own, former Yankees slugger, and current Boring Dad on Instagram, Alex Rodriguez. Yes, it’s about steroids in baseball (zzzzzzzzz). Yes, it’s about Miami. But it’s way more than that. Because the story that unravels the entire thing is bananas. Because, Florida (DAMN YOU, BILLY CORBENNNN).

Screwball centers around the 2013 performing enhancing drug scandal that gave Major League Baseball and everyone involved a proverbial nipple twist, got Big League stars like A-Rod, Manny Ramirez, and Ryan Braun busted for juicing their shit up, and got everyone to go, holy shitcheese Jose Canseco was right!

In a nutshell, the story goes thusly: Anthony Bosch, a Florida Man who got his medical degree in Belize because, fuck it, opened up a health clinic to rejuvenate older folks who wanted to take better selfies, and discovered a way to mix together a PED regimen so that it was barely noticeable during a piss test, if at all. Naturally, this eventually led Bosch to having old people who wanted to fuck like teenagers as clients, to Big League ballplayers who wanted to get an edge. Bosch also apparently gave these PEDs to high school athletes through parents permission because we live in a world where literally everything is terrible.

Add some shady Goodfellas type dudes, a pinch of conmen and criminals, and a dash of a dopey guy who threatens to blow the whole thing up, and you have yourself a helluva story. Throw a weirdo like A-Rod into the mix, and possibly, maybe, kinda, allegedly, could be, MLB doing some shady illegal shit of their own, and NOW you’ve got yourself a barnburner.

Just look at that trailer.

The first thing that pops into your head when you watch that trailer is, wow steroids are kinda fucking cool I think I wanna start taking some where is this Bosch character now anyone have his @? And the second, and probably more importantly, those kid actors!

That’s because the best part of Screwball is how Corben decides to tell the story by using some talented kids. Taking a page out of Comedy Central’s Drunk History, where actors reenact scenes by lip-synching off-camera narrators, Screwball uses child actors to play all the characters as the real life-people retell their story. Blake McCall, the kid that plays A-Rod, really captures A-Rod’s odd plastic image-obsessed nature, and absolutely NAILS his swing (also, Ian Mackles deserves an Oscar for portraying my former Miami New Times boss Tim Elfrink so masterfully. The kid is the next Daniel Day-Lewis. I’m not even kidding. So great. Ok, I made this about me. Sorry. ONWARD…).

Bottom line, if you haven’t watched Screwball, then do it. Especially if you’re into sports and especially if you live here in South Florida, where we have some kooky-ass characters living among us. ESPECIALLY IN POLITICS.

It’s funny, irreverent, and smartly done. And it’s another notch in Corben’s utility belt of awesome story-telling. Truly, Screwball represents yet another side to just how dysfunctional a place paradise is, and Corben masterfully builds an entire movie around a slightly subversive central idea about some guys who wanted to get rich quick, and a couple of guys who wanted to hit baseballs good, and how it all went to shit because people are stupid.

Screwball gets 4 out of 5 F&%ks
Greenwhich Entertainment, a documentary directed by Billy Corben. Running time 105 minutes. Available on iTunes, Amazon, FandangoNow, and Vudu.

Chris Joseph (@ByChrisJoseph) is a host of Ballscast, and has written for Deadspin, Miami New Times, CBS Sports, and several other outlets.

You get a mock draft! You get a mock draft!

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In four days the 2019 NFL Draft will begin.

And now that the big day has finally come, we begin to look back and remember all of the ups and downs from this year’s draft season. More specifically, mock drafts.

In the weeks leading up to the draft, hundreds upon hundreds of mock drafts are released.  Some ‘experts’ release as many as ten mock drafts. The reason for this is simple:

A) No matter how foolish or inaccurate they may be, fans love mock drafts.

B) This allows them to cover every possible scenario, making it more likely they ‘hit’ on a pick.

C) Many sites expect their writers to release weekly or bi-weekly mock drafts. If you write, they will come.

D) All of the above

So as we wait anxiously for the 2019 NFL draft to arrive, let’s take a look at some recent mock drafts and who the ‘experts’ have the Dolphins selecting.

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“Mock Drafts are like buttholes, everyone has one and most of them stink” – Thomas Jefferson

To begin, let’s take a look at some of the recent mock drafts on NFL.com

NFL.com

The first is from Chad Reuter.

Here, you can find his entire 2019 7-round mock draft. It’s quite interesting to say the least. In his most recent mock, Reuter has the Dolphins selecting Ohio State QB, Dwayne Haskins.

Now this isn’t the problem. The problem, however, is that he predicts a draft-day trade between two teams that despise one another.  In no world, would the Dolphins and Bills make a trade that benefits both teams.  No chance.

Next, we have a mock draft from one of the most well respected analysts in the game,  Daniel Jeremiah.

In his latest mock draft, Jeremiah has the Dolphins selecting uber-talented pass rusher Rashan Gary.  No, he may not have lived up to his full potential in college, but Stephen Ross loves Michigan and Rashan Gary would fill an immediate need on Miami’s defensive line.

Like Jeremiah, Charles Davis is one of the better draft analysts in the industry.  Here, he too addresses the Dolphins need for a defensive end, selecting the heavy-handed Clelin Ferrell.

Peter Schrager of Good Morning Football has Miami selecting another Clemson defensive lineman.

Some other notable NFL.com mock drafts.

Charley Casserly – Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

Bucky Brooks – Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

Lance Zierlein – Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

Adam Rank – Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

CBS Sports

Now that we got a pretty good idea of what the writers over at NFL.com would do at Pick 13, it’s time to take a look at what CBS Sports has to offer.

The first mock draft is from Ryan Wilson, who believes Dwayne Haskins will fall mercifully into the Dolphins lap at 13.  As you can see, this has become a popular pick among the ‘experts’ but remains unlikely.  However, if Haskins is available when the Dolphins are on the clock, Chris Grier and Co. should sprint to the podium.

We know how important the quarterback position can be, but who’s going to protect the Dolphins QB of the future?  Will Brinson believes Alabama’s Jonah Williams would be the perfect fit on their less-than-stellar offensive line.

Chris Trapasso also has the Dolphins solidifying the offensive line, selecting Washington State’s Andre Dillard.  Dillard is slowly climbing up draft boards and could find himself drafted in the top-15.

R.J White has the Dolphins trading down with Houston and selecting quite possibly the best defensive player in this class, Jeffrey Simmons.  As we all know by now, Simmons tore his ACL and will miss the entire 2019 season.  It is no secret that Miami will struggle to compete this upcoming season, so why not bring in an elite player that will be ready to make an impact in 2020?

Other notable CBS Sports mock drafts

Jared Dubin – Jonah Williams, OL, Alabama

Pete Prisco – Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

What we learned

In the end, mock drafts are a waste of time because no one knows exactly how the board will fall. Furthermore, each team has differing opinions on prospects.  So although one player might be considered a late-round pick by many, another team might view them completely different.  So yes, mock drafts are a waste of time.  But until we stop caring or giving them the time of day, mock drafts will continue to consume a large part of the draft process.

 

Josh Houtz (@Houtz) is currently working on a mock draft of Five Reasons Sports contributors. It is also a waste of time.