The Miami Dolphins made the decision this week to stand pat during Tuesday’s trade deadline, ultimately opting neither to trade for or away impact players. If one were to listen to the team, however, one thing would be clear: This is a roster and a coaching staff that believes they are still competing for a spot in the playoffs this season. As unrealistic as that may seem to the fanbase-embittered by a 2-6 start, or an outside observer, this is the path they have chosen, and no amount of complaining about said path will change it. The path to the postseason, however, is a slim one, like tightrope suspended in the air between skyscrapers, slim. There are a couple facts that the Dolphins can take solace in, in undertaking this perilous journey, though, like the fact that the AFC is in a very weak position this year featuring a wild card race that contains the Steelers, who are very likely in barring a surprising collapse, but two remaining spots to be fought over featuring the likes of the Broncos, the Chargers, the Bengals, the Colts and the Jets. As well as the fact that the Dolphins have the second easiest strength of schedule remaining with opponents’ combined win percentage reaching a paltry .405. Let’s take a dive into that schedule, shall we? 

Week 10 @ Los Angeles Rams: W

The first test for the playoff push will come on Monday night in Los Angeles versus the Rams, a team that is no stranger to overcoming slow starts, as in 2023, they started 3-6 before finishing 7-1 over their remaining eight games and making the postseason at 10-7, and in 2024 are now 4-4, and winners of three straight following a 1-4 start through their first five games. The Rams feature a dynamic offense headed up by a still borderline elite Matthew Stafford at Quarterback and a trio of skill position players that can match the top three of any offense in Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. For the purpose of this exercise, however, the Dolphins will be given a win. The Dolphins’ offense has been slowly building up over the last couple of weeks to the point that they feel on the verge of an explosion, and facing off with a young Rams defense that is 28th in opponents yards per play so far in 2024, this is a prime spot for it. The defensive side of the ball is where the challenge emerges for the Miami Dolphins, however, as over the last two weeks they have allowed 28 points, and 30 points, respectively to the Arizona Cardinals and the Buffalo Bills. The flip side of this is that reinforcements seem to be on the way in a relative hurry, and with the likes of Kader Kohou, Jevon Holland and Zach Sieler expected to suit up on Monday night in Los Angeles, the defense will be improved just enough to allow the Dolphins to come away with the victory on Monday night. Record: 3-6

Week 11 vs. Los Vegas Raiders: W

Now, this is where momentum can really get going for the Dolphins, following a hypothetical win versus the Rams, they get a Raiders team at home that does not have much to play for at this point, on top of that, the return of Bradley Chubb is looming in the background, This could be a soft landing spot to bring him back into the fold. If so, the Dolphins defense could finally start to hit its stride this week to add to a Dolphins offense that would be really rolling at this point. 

Record: 4-6

Week 12 vs Patriots: W

In week 12, the Dolphins will face off with the Patriots at home, having already beaten New England on the road during Tagovailoa’s absence. Both of these teams will be much different come week 12, though. As Tua will be behind center for the Dolphins in this one, while Drake Maye has taken the mantle up at Quarterback for the Patriots since their last meeting, to pretty solid success thus far, if we’re being honest. However, this is a Patriots team that is not good, not defensively, not offensively, and with the Dolphins offense starting to hit its stride, as well as a defense that should be jelling with Bradley Chubb back in the lineup, the Dolphins should cruise at home versus the Patriots in this one. 

Record: 5-6

Week 13 @ Green Bay Packers: L

Week 13 takes the Dolphins up to Green Bay on Thanksgiving night to do battle with the Green Bay Packers in what is a double whammy of bad omens for the Dolphins, a prime time game that is also likely to be played in less than ideal weather. While I believe that this one can be made close by a Dolphins run game better equipped to succeed in games with poor weather conditions, ultimately,the Dolphins come up short as a defense that has not forced many turnovers over the course of the season are unable to turn over the turnover prone Jordan Love, and so on Thanksgiving night, the Dolphins get sent back to Miami still hungry for a victory. Record: 5-7

Week 14 vs. NY Jets: W

In week 14, the Dolphins have their first of two annual matchups with the New York Jets, this one coming in Miami Gardens to take on Aaron Rodgers and company. These are two teams hoping to have similar trajectories at this point, however with the Jets having a (slightly) more difficult schedule leading into this game, the Jets could be coming in with a 4-8 record, largely killing any postseason dreams for Gang Green, and with the mercurial Aaron Rodgers under center for these Jets, the landing gear may be coming off at this point. The Dolphins will need a victory in this one, with Tua continuing his strong play at this point with an offense that has its full arsenal and a line that has been much improved since mid season, as well as a defense that should only improve as they get healthier. Record: 6-7

Week 15 @ Houston Texans: W

Now, undoubtedly, this is the most ambitious victory of the Dolphins’ bid to save the season to this point, however, a key point: the Houston Texans play inside of a dome, this is not the Miami Dolphins going to Green Bay or Buffalo in December, this is Miami playing a team on the road in an atmosphere that benefits greatly their offense. While the defense should, and probably will struggle to contain the Texans offense, CJ Stroud has not yet been quite as sharp as he was last season to this point, and at this point I have the Dolphins track team on offense just barely eking out a victory over the Texans in Houston to get themselves back to .500 heading into a pivotal three game stretch likely to determine their playoff fate in 2024. Record: 7-7

Week 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers: W

Week 16 sees the San Francisco 49ers fly across the country to Miami in a sequel to 2021’s student-master matchup which saw Kyle Shanhan come up victorious in San Francisco over the Dolphins. The Niners will undoubtedly be a stronger team than they appear now after welcoming back arguably the league’s best offensive weapon in running back Christian McCaffrey and having him back in the fold for a few weeks at this point. The Niners defense, however, is not quite as sharp as the one that stifled the Dolphins offense at Levi Stadium in 2021, and combined with a flight across three time zones, the Dolphins pick up another signature victory to regain full control of their destiny. Record: 8-7

Week 17 @ Cleveland Browns: W

Week 17 takes Miami up to Cleveland in a game which will once again test Miami’s ability to compete in cold weather games, however, this time around they will be playing a team in the Cleveland Browns that is likely to be tanking for their next quarterback at this point with Deshaun Watson having suffered a season-ending Achilles injury earlier in the season. The Browns, having sold off Amari Cooper and Za’Darius Smith already this season, are a much lesser roster than the one that entered the 2024 season for Cleveland. While this one may present major trap game potential for Tua Tagovailoa and company, I am placing this one cautiously, but firmly in the ‘W’ column. Record: 9-7

Week 18 @ New York Jets: W

The Dolphins closing matchup of the 2024 season sees them head to East Rutherford, New Jersey to face their most hated rival in a potentially make or break matchup with the Jets. This is one that could potentially go either way as it is likely to be a cold weather game versus a team that would love nothing more to play spoiler for the Miami Dolphins, but this is a game in which the Dolphins run game will have to win the day for Miami behind the three headed monster at running back of De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jaylen Wright. Defensively, the Dolphins will have to generate pressure against a Jets offensive line that has been susceptible to allowing Aaron Rodgers to be taken to the ground, if the Dolphins wish to complete the comeback, they must go through the Jets. Record: 10-7

As unlikely as it may be, if the Dolphins wish to make the postseason, and that is their stated goal, it will take winning eight of their last nine games to leave little doubt. While improbable, the schedule does allow for it if all breaks right for the Miami Dolphins. This is a group that believes, especially now healthier than they have been almost all season, they are better than the 2-6 record they have accrued to this point. This final nine games is where they will have to prove it if they wish to make this anything other than a lost year in a sea of lost years in the last two decades plus.

The Miami Dolphins were unable to overcome themselves in Sunday’s 28-27 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, marking the second consecutive game that Mike McDaniel’s group had lost after leading by double-digits in the second half. There are many glaring points that fans can rightfully point to in throwing the blame around for the loss, arguably none more impactful than the safety on a botched snap between Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Center Aaron Brewer, which directly resulted in eight Cardinals points in the third quarter.

The game was one which was supposed to mark the triumphant return of the aforementioned quarterback, who had missed the previous four games, a span in which the Dolphins sputtered to a 1-3 record, due in large part to an offense that was ranked dead last in the league over that period. And so, at 2-5, the Miami Dolphins, a team which had Super Bowl aspirations in the offseason, find themselves on the brink. Fittingly, the team staring at them from the other side, ready to push them into obscurity for the remainder of 2024, and potentially beyond, considering what the ramifications of such a loss may be, is the Buffalo Bills. This is not just any opponent for these Miami Dolphins, these Bills have been the Achilles heel for the McDaniel era Dolphins, as they have absolutely dominated Miami in recent years, in fact, following the Dolphins first matchup with the Bills in the Tua/McDaniel partnership, a 21-19 victory in September of 2022, the Dolphins have lost six straight to their archrivals, with an average margin of defeat of 12.4 points in that span. Fast forward to this week’s game, and that 12.4 points feels as though it pales in comparison to what may happen on Sunday in Buffalo, just as the Dolphins have been spiraling, this is a Bills team that has been firing on all cylinders of late, winners of three straight, the latest of which being an impressive 31-10 drubbing of the Seahawks in Seattle while still incorporating newly acquired star receiver Amari Cooper into the fold. Certainly, overcoming these Bills on the road in a hostile environment is a herculean task for Mike McDaniel and company, armed with a defense that was just ripped to shreds by a Cardinals team that exposed the Dolphins linebackers in pass coverage, a fact that Josh Allen will be sure to exploit with the likes of Dalton Kincaid at his disposal, and an offense that has seemingly struggled to get its feet under itself for the better part of a calendar year now, with struggles going beyond even Tagovailoa’s recent absence.

Winning, however, is the only option for this group, if they want to remain this group, that is. While coach McDaniel has expressed that owner Stephen Ross is still in his corner at Monday’s press conference, each week that goes by with a loss makes that support look more and more like the dreaded “vote of confidence” we seem to always hear about before a coach’s dismissal, and considering the opponent on Sunday, and the stakes, with falling to 2-6 all but ending the season, makes this game arguably the biggest of McDaniel’s tenure. Lose, and the fate is sealed, as the Dolphins likely spiral to a 4-12 or 5-11 record, dooming all of those involved in the creation and curation of this roster, General Manager Chris Grier, included. IF, the Dolphins pull off the seemingly impossible and win, however, the possibilities of the season open back up. Not only would such a victory bring them to 3-5, which, on the surface seems relatively unimportant in the grand scheme of things, it is what such a win would mean for the team symbolically. To beat this opponent, the team which has been the measuring stick for the rest of the AFC East, and has single handedly owned the Dolphins for the better part of the last three seasons, could be exactly the flashpoint that the team could rally around in turning the tides of their 2024 season, conquering their biggest foe at their most desperate moment.

The question then becomes, how, exactly can the Miami Dolphins accomplish such a feat? I have spent quite a bit of time thus far emphasizing just how unlikely of a victory this would be for Miami, and for good reason, it truly can not be overstated, but the games are not played on paper. The short answer is, and this may be disappointing to hear for many fans, but it starts with a similar game plan, albeit not totally the same, that the Dolphins had prior to the wheels falling off in week two versus the Bills. In the first half of week two, the Dolphins had turned the ball over three times (twice via interceptions, once on downs) giving Buffalo a field no shorter than 49 yards on three scoring drives resulting in 17 of their 24 points in the first half. The culprit of these turnovers? Overagression. Each time, these turnovers were a result of the Dolphins attempting to do too much. From Tua Tagovailoa targeting Grant DuBose and Robbie Chosen downfield despite being well-covered, to a decision to go for it on 4th down from Buffalo’s 45 yard-line that had resulted in a sack rather than staying patient and pinning the Bills back deep into their own territory.

This is not necessarily to say that the Dolphins would have won if they had simply been more patient, playing a more conservative game, but the scoreboard certainly would not have looked the way that it did heading into the half. The Dolphins had rushed for 101 yards on 20 carries in the first half, with De’Von Achane accounting for 69 of those yards on 14 carries. The passing game, however, was more problematic, and the core of where I think changes can and should be made. Tua Tagovailoa went 13-18 for 94 yards with two costly interceptions. Limiting those turnovers in week 10, will be key, along with using a full stable of rushers. In the previous matchup with the Bills, Miami was limited in the backfield to De’Von Achane, and Jeff Wilson, Jr. as Raheem Mostert missed the game with a chest injury suffered the week prior, and Jaylen Wright having not yet cracked the running back rotation (he still hasn’t fully). This is a Dolphins team now that is even better equipped to run the football, and do so to great effect, as over the last three weeks, the Miami Dolphins have averaged 177 yards per game on the ground on 35 attempts, good for five yards per carry. With a more effective run game, and a healthier stable of backs, Miami should be able to run with decent success in week nine, and they will need to stick with it.

The passing game is another story altogether, while more effective versus the Cardinals in week eight than in previous weeks, it was still a far cry from what many had expected of the Dolphins offense with their main signal-caller at the helm as they were only able to muster 234 yards in the passing game, good for just 6.2 yards per attempt. In the midst of writing this piece, I decided to look back at the first game versus the Bills in September (gross, I know) but one of the things that I found, specifically in the passing game, was…interesting. In Mike McDaniel’s offense, in most offenses really, but more specifically in this offense, space is king. The Dolphins first half offensive game plan was clearly to try and get the skill players out in space, this resulted in a flurry of pop passes, screens, throws to the flat and the like. Normally, versus a team who is flooding the middle of the field, like the Bills were, in order to try and take the Dolphins bread and butter concepts away, this would work. The issue in the previous matchup, though, was that it did not. The reason for this has been somewhat cleaned up by the Dolphins in recent weeks, as the perimeter blocking in this game was just atrocious offensively.

The more interesting takeaway that I noticed was the success the Dolphins had when doing the inverse, which is, spreading the defense out wide in order to better attack the middle of the field in the passing game. On throws to the outside (I used outside the formation here, rather than outside the numbers, because those throws almost didn’t exist) Tua Tagovailoa was 10-14 for 48 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions (one on a botched throwaway attempt). When throwing over the middle of the field, Tagovailoa was much, much more effective. Excluding the 10 yard pop pass to Tyreek, he completed seven of ten passes for 91 yards, and a pick. When context is added to these numbers, they become much more impressive, as the interception was to Grant DuBose, and while the throw was too aggressive for my liking considering the coverage and the target of the pass, it hit him right on the chest before being popped up into the air and intercepted, and the other two incompletions were on a throw over the middle to Tyreek that is on the money if he is not (arguably) held, and a dropped touchdown pass by Julian Hill. Once again, I stress, this is not me pleading my case that the Dolphins could have, or should have, beaten the Bills in week two, but rather highlighting concepts that could bring success in a do-or-die week 9 matchup for Miami. On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins are coming off of their worst performance by far of the 2024 season for Anthony Weaver’s defense. To their credit, they were down their best defensive lineman in Zach Sieler, a player who the Dolphins will desperately need on Sunday if they wish to contain the Bills’ offense, but the bigger issue versus the Cardinals were the linebackers, specifically. Jordyn Brooks and David Long, Jr. were arguably two of the Dolphins best defenders, stuffing runs, and yes, even covering pass-catchers in the first matchup with Buffalo that saw the defense limit Josh Allen to 139 yards passing and only two (!) yards rushing, these two will have to have a massive bounce back game if Miami hopes to contain these high-flying Bills in week nine.

As for Buffalo, this is a different Bills team than the Dolphins previously saw in week two, however, as in recent weeks the Bills have acquired Wide Receiver Amari Cooper from the Browns, and had rookie running back Ray Davis emerge in recent weeks as a legitimate thunder to James Cook’s lightning. The Dolphins secondary will certainly face a more challenging group of skill players this week than they did in round one versus Buffalo, but this is an improved secondary as well, for Miami, as in recent weeks they have seemed to clean up some of the miscommunication issues that had resulted in long touchdowns early in the season. The key, as always, will be to contain Josh Allen, a tough ask for a unit that struggled to do so with Kyler Murray on Sunday, resulting in multiple completions down field on extended plays. No matter how improved the secondary is, or how high of a level Jalen Ramsey is playing at, there is no secondary on the face of the planet that can cover the Bills if Josh Allen is given free reign to extend plays seemingly infinitely as he is known to do, this is where the defensive line will be key on Sunday, the Dolphins must find a way to win on first and second down in order to put the Bills in challenging third and long scenarios, this doesn’t guarantee that Allen can’t or won’t put on his Superman cape, he undoubtedly will, at some point in the game, but the Dolphins must make the degree of difficulty as high as possible. So, what does this all mean for Sunday? Do the Dolphins pull off the improbable in Buffalo? Can Mike McDaniel and the rest of the coaching staff pull a rabbit out of their collective hats?

Only time will tell. One thing is certain, however, and that is that for the sake of the season, for the sake of this brain trust, and the sake of this build, the Dolphins make their last stand this Sunday.

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Eric Wiedeke (@EricWiedeke) appears on Final Yard and Pulse of Fins Nation and Prize Picks shows on the Five Reasons Sports Network.