Bam Adebayo’s Aggression is the Key That Unlocks Miami’s Offense

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Through 45 games, the Miami Heat are settling in as an average team. At least that’s what the numbers indicate. The rotation has resembled a game of musical chairs more often than not, but the numbers are the numbers. They are 24th in points per 100 possessions, 26th in eFG%, and thanks to a top-4 defense, they are outscoring opposing teams by less than one point (0.4) per 100 possessions. So, yeah. Average.

 

There is one trend, however, that has permeated through the shaky offense: Bam Adebayo’s offensive aggressiveness.

 

It was clear early on that Bam’s calling card is defense. There are few players in the league more versatile that can guard 1-5 more effectively than Bam. Keyword – effectively. But offense? That was a different story.

 

Early on in his career, Bam was used more as a P&R lob toy for the likes of an aging Dwyane Wade or Tyler Johnson. (Bet you didn’t think you’d read Tyler Johnson’s name in a Heat article again).

 

Over the last couple of years, however, we’ve seen Bam’s offensive game blossom. Not just in stats and numbers but in his confidence.

 

A few short seasons ago the majority of his offense came from inside the paint. Per Cleaning The Glass, 67% of his field goal attempts came at the rim across his first three seasons. Teams recognized this and quickly started playing drop on Miami’s P&Rs. Opposing defenses were daring him to step up and take mid-range jumpers. Because Bam wasn’t comfortable, he would hesitate at times and it would neutralize Miami’s offensive possession.

 

Remember the 2021 playoffs against the Milwaukee Bucks? Sure, there was a slew of reasons why the Heat was swept, but one major takeaway was the Bucks’ ability to exploit Bam’s lack of confidence and aggression in the mid-range. As you can see in the examples below, they planted Brook Lopez in the paint and dared Bam to step up and beat them.

 

The result? Miami shot 39% from the field as a team and averaged a measly 98 PPG.

 

Offense = Neutralized.

 

https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2021/05/22/0042000121/293/fc40288a-5761-fa7b-9ce8-669fcc5840c6_1280×720.mp4

 

Brook Lopez is among the best centers when it comes to playing drop. More on that in a second.

 

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Since that series, Bam’s aggression is night and day. He’s stepping into pull-up jumpers with confidence and sinking them with career-high efficiency. As a result, Miami’s offense becomes potent. According to the data, 58% of Bam’s shots are coming from the mid-range this season. That puts him in the 99th percentile among other bigs. As for efficiency, he’s knocking down 46% of them. That’s a career-high and better than Kristaps Porzingis (45%) and Jayson Tatum (41%) this season.

 

Remember when Lopez and the Bucks’ drop defense exposed Bam in the 2021 playoffs? Well, he had a chance to redeem himself earlier this month when the two teams met. While this was just a normal January matchup to some, I viewed it as an opportunity to gauge just how far Bam has come offensively. With a healthy Lopez starting and plenty of drop in store, how would Bam respond?

 

He obliterated it right from the jump. It was clear the Heat made it a point to get him the ball early on offense. Rather than hesitating, he went right at Lopez.

 

These three possessions early on in the game are a great indicator of what an aggressive Bam does for Miami’s offense.

 

https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2023/01/12/0022200628/14/3d7c892c-e62a-897b-168d-f02b047f7557_1280×720.mp4

 

Anytime the Bucks showed drop, Bam took advantage.

 

https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2023/01/12/0022200628/24/8ea18097-b2ec-374b-2580-f0507a80ecdb_1280×720.mp4

 

After that make, it was clear that the Bucks’ coaches instructed Lopez to play closer to Bam on the P&R, rather than giving up an easy jumper.

See it here:

 

Two possessions later, Lopez sticks closer to Bam on the screen and it opens up a driving lane for Jimmy Butler. He cashes it in for two.

 

Put simply, an aggressive Bam opens up Miami’s offense. A passive Bam clogs it up.

 

As we saw above, when he was aggressive early on and attacked the defense, it opened up driving lanes for his teammates, namely Butler.

 

It’s no secret by now that Bam’s aggression is the key that unlocks Miami’s offense. The Heat is enjoying their best stretch of basketball this season, and Bam is averaging 23.3 points, 11.2 rebounds and 17.6 field goal attempts over his last 10 games. Coincidence? I think not.

 

Despite the average offensive numbers for the season, if the Heat can remain healthy and  THIS Bam shows up for the playoffs – watch out.

Gabe Vincent starting over Kyle Lowry is the Spark Miami Needs

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The Miami Heat is currently enjoying its best (and healthiest) stretch of basketball this season. They’ve won 12 of their last 18 games and appear poised to make up lost ground over the remaining 37 games. In the midst of finding a rhythm, a scintillating two-game stretch from Gabe Vincent has ignited an interesting debate among Heat fans:

 

Should Vincent continue to start at point guard, even when Kyle Lowry returns to the lineup?

 

Before setting the stage, we have to get one thing clear: shame on Lowry. The sole fact that this is even up for debate is an indictment on his tenure in Miami. Sure, there have been some good moments. But ultimately his impact has not lived up to the near $30 million yearly price tag it took to acquire him. Because of that, two-impressive games from Vincent against the Milwaukee Bucks’ JV team was all it took for fans to begin beating the drum. Let it be known that this discussion has much more to do with Lowry than it does with Vincent. Let’s proceed.

 

At face value, the Heat are an average team offensively. At least that’s what the numbers indicate. They are outscoring opponents by less than a point per 100 possessions (0.4) and it has them sitting in the 52nd percentile as a result.

 

With Lowry on the floor, the numbers get worse.

 

Across the 1,257 minutes he’s played this season, Miami is a -2.4 per 100 possessions. That’s a pretty big sample size. As for Vincent, the numbers tell an entirely different story. The Heat is a +2.8 per 100 possessions in his 782 minutes on the floor this season.

 

In nearly every advanced stat, Miami is a negative with Lowry and a positive with Vincent – both offensively and defensively.

 

That said, it would be naive to derive an opinion from solely looking at just one source of individual advanced stat. After all, injuries have forced Miami to trot out a plethora of different lineup combinations and taking a closer look could paint a better picture.

 

The Heat’s most-used lineup this season has been that of Lowry – Tyler Herro – Caleb Martin – Jimmy Butler – Bam Adebayo. This group has seen a total of 405 possessions together and has been solid in every way. They are outscoring teams by more than nine points per 100 possessions and forcing turnovers on 18.4% of opponents possessions. That’s like, really good. (It’s also an indicator on where Miami would be if they could just stay healthy).

 

Things get even more interesting if you substitute Vincent for Lowry with the rest of the group staying the same. Are you ready for these numbers? In Vincent’s 68 total possessions with the rest of Miami’s starters, the Heat are outscoring opponents by 23.5 points per 100 possessions and humming with a 61.1 eFG%. I know, it’s a very small sample size, but we’re here to have some fun, right?

 

It’s plain as day. Vincent has been more valuable to the Heat this season during his time on the floor per the numbers. Overreacting to a few good games and making drastic changes isn’t wise. But with Lowry continuing to operate on career-low efficiency and Miami flirting with play-in territory, they are running out of time to figure it out.

 

Vincent has the hot hand. His offensive spark is exactly what the Heat need to jumpstart their climb back to being one of the many juggernauts of the East.

 

 And if one thing is true it’s this: Erik Spoelstra isn’t afraid to ride the hot hand. Just ask Duncan Robinson.

The Miami Dolphins are still in the huddle as the clock ticks down on fourth-and-1.

Pressure Point: Dolphins give Bills a scare, but leave fans frustrated

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This is why they have playoffs, because there are no certainties in the NFL.

Not for the Los Angeles Chargers with a 27-0 lead, only to get swamped by an epic Jacksonville Jaguars comeback in a stunning 31-30 loss on Saturday.

For a while Sunday it looked like another Florida team might flip an improbable script with the Miami Dolphins turning a 17-0 deficit into a 24-20 lead, on the road with a third-string rookie quarterback against the highly favored Bills in their AFC wild-card game.

Ultimately, there was no Miami Miracle in Buffalo as what could have been the Dolphins’ greatest postseason comeback victory fell short 34-31.

While the effort and the scare they put into a bonafide Super Bowl contender was commendable, the ending was wrenching in a way that is characteristic of a franchise that never fails to string along its fans and leave them in agony.

This one will be remembered for the Dolphins’ final hopes fizzling after a delay-of-game penalty on fourth-and-short in the final two-and-a-half minutes.

Confusion on fourth-and-1

For all the good first-year coach Mike McDaniel did in getting the team to the playoffs for the first time in six years and within a whisker of upsetting a 14-point favorite, he will have to endure an offseason of bitter taste from questionable game management in the fourth quarter.

McDaniel repeatedly had trouble getting plays in to quarterback Skylar Thompson and the proper personnel package on the field in timely fashion. They had already burned all of their timeouts because of that issue.

This time there was no way to avoid the penalty. They were still in the huddle with five seconds left on the play clock.

So they went from needing less than a yard to fourth and a long five with 2:29 remaining.

On what would be Miami’s final offensive play, Thompson either didn’t see Tyreek Hill streaking open across the middle or the rush was on him too quick to make that throw. So Thompson looked to the right and was unable to connect with Mike Gesicki on a short pass. And that was that.

McDaniel said afterward that there was confusion with the officials on whether Salvon Ahmed had actually gotten the first down on the previous play.

“We thought we got the first down, so we were deploying some players for the first-and-10. And then it was articulated that it was fourth down,” McDaniel said in his postgame media session.

That was definitely a time when one of those previously squandered timeouts would have come in handy.

Whatever the reason, it made for an excruciating ending as the wind rushed out of the Dolphins’ season with a massive Pffft!

Efficiency in getting plays in and off is certainly an area for improvement as the Dolphins have often pushed the play clock to the final seconds this season. It became more of an issue Sunday with a rookie quarterback contending with a loud, hostile crowd.

Dolphins 0-for-4 since last playoff win

Bottom line, the Dolphins were one-and-done in the playoffs for the fourth time since they last won in the postseason 22 years ago.

They gave a much better accounting of themselves than in the previous three which were all routs by a combined score of 77-24.

It appeared like it would more of the same with Josh Allen and the Bills leading 17-0 early in the second quarter.

Turnovers had a lot to do with the arc of this game and everything to do with the Dolphins making a contest of it. Miami cashed in 18 points off three turnovers.
Allen came in with 14 touchdown passes and only one interception in his playoff career.

The Dolphins picked him off twice in the second quarter and forced him into a fumble that defensive lineman Zach Sieler scooped up for a go-ahead touchdown early in the third quarter.

The Bills regained the lead after converting a Thompson interception into a short touchdown drive.

But Thompson led an 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to bring Miami within three points with 10:53 remaining.

Thompson ended up completing 18 of 45 for 220 yards and one touchdown, with two interceptions and a passer rating of 44.7.

Would Tua Tagovailoa have changed wild-card outcome?

The rookie was often off target and slow getting passes off. But he didn’t get great help from his receivers, who had several notable drops.

Jaylen Waddle, in particular, looked like he was trying to catch a pot roast slipping off a greased platter with oven mitts until finally coming through with three catches in the fourth quarter.

Damar Hamlin, the Bills safety who needed to be resuscitated on the field in Cincinnati two weeks ago, watched on TV and tweeted following the game: “I have to give a huge shout out to the Dolphins. Made it a game. I’m so looking forward to more Bills Dolphins in the foreseeable future.”

Yes, the Dolphins bucked steep odds and made it closer than most of their fans may have hoped for. But the way it turned out left them feeling frustrated with the many mistakes, angry about the disorganization in game management and lamenting how the outcome could have been different with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa a healthy participant.

Unfortunately, health and availability has been elusive with Tagovailoa. Recurring concussions have put his long-term viability in question — the most recent head injury kept him out of the final two games of the regular season and the playoff.

Adam Schefter, of ESPN, reported Sunday that Tagovailoa “is expected to return as the Dolphins starting quarterback next season” and that he might have been cleared from concussion protocol had the Dolphins advanced in the postseason.

According to Schefter: “Medical professionals also are confident that Tagovailoa should be able to resume his NFL career next season, if not sooner, sources said.”

Like the outcome of Sunday’s game, that is just another uncertainty in the Miami Dolphins’ unending seasons of elusive hope.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Gabe Vincent Shines in Kyle Lowry’s Absence

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The Heatles went 2-0 in the miniseries against the Fawns between Thursday and Saturday in Miami. Giannis Antetokounmpo sat because of knee soreness, a gift for the hosts that assisted in padding its league record. Now, for the first time this season, the Heat are four games above .500.

Miami’s 2-3 zone followed up its masterful work securing the interior and influencing the Bucks to almost exclusively play from the outside. Over both games, Milwaukee logged a meager 44 points in the paint. Yet, on Saturday, the Bucks got five more attempts in the square (25) than it had previously. Although, Miami held them to 24.4 percentage points below the league average in the restricted area (40%).

More evidence that the zone neutered the Bucks: Bobby Portis, who converts 69% of tries at the rim and half from 3-10 feet, for the season, missed two in the restricted area and shot 33% in the rest of the lane, plus Brook Lopez attempted just one shot in the box.Typically, half of Lopez’s looks come from the paint.

Miami started the first half sizzling from deep, primarily behind the marksmanship of Kyle Lowry’s understudy, Gabe Vincent, who made five out of seven 3-pointers for the period. While he took spot-up shots and splashed trays off the dribble, he was as radiant as the Wolf-Rayet star.

Vincent’s first two-pointer didn’t come until early in the second quarter. A failed pick by Orlando Robinson minimally freed Gabe from AJ Green in the right corner. Green went over the screen, taking away the driving lane, but Vincent pulled up for a long contested two that swished.

Next, as #2 dribbled in transition, Bam Adebayo screened Grayson Allen at the top of the key. Vincent used the opening to get to the nail for his second jumper, unbothered.

For his third midrange shot of the half, Adebayo, again, shielded his defender in the halfcourt at the top. Vincent stepped into the lane, attacked Portis in drop coverage, and hit a floater covered by the low man and his initial matchup, Allen.

At the intermission, Vincent had 21 points. His efficiency from the field continued in the last 24 minutes but on a smaller volume of three out of four made buckets with an assist, a rebound and a pair of steals. He finished the game with 27 points, two shy of the career high he set on Thursday.

At the postgame press conference, Vincent said, “I think I was just in a rhythm, and my guys did a really good job of getting me open time and time again. Whether that’s shutting the screen or cutting, or finding me when I’m open in the corner… They did a good job of that, and I made some shots. That always helps.”

These back-to-back games for Vincent scoring at least 20 points have only happened four times in his career. The first time was in 2021, between Jan. 12-14. The second was later that year, from Dec. 15-17. The third was in 2022, on Feb. 28 and March 2. His latest was Thursday and Saturday. For whatever it’s worth, the starting point guard for this team, Lowry, has only done that three times in a Heat uniform through one and a half seasons.

The production at the one spot has been so unreliable this year for the Heatles that Vincent’s last week of play should instantly spark a controversy over who gets the shine and who becomes the squire. This is not an overreaction to facing a two-time MVP-less squad. The last time Lowry recorded at least 20 points in a game was on Dec. 23, and he’s done it in six of his 36 nights of action. Keep in mind there are currently 42 players qualifying for league leaders who are averaging at least 20 a night.

For the record, holding that average for a starting point guard is unnecessary. But shooting above 40% for the season is. This puts Miami in an awkward spot because both Lowry and Vincent are below that.

Age has diminished Lowry’s ability. If Vincent doesn’t take his spot he should eat a large chunk of the veteran’s minutes.

Rookie Skylar Thompson will start for the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card game against the Bills.

Pressure Point: Dolphins face unenviable task in playoffs, challenging offseason

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The difference between a hit and a flop is often paper-thin in the NFL.

For the Miami Dolphins, the 2022 season swung on a 50-yard field goal attempt by Justin Sanders in the final seconds of the regular-season finale last Sunday against the New York Jets.

Essentially a coin flip. Heads, he makes it and the Dolphins remain alive for the playoffs. Tails, he misses and the season ends with a sickening thud of a six-game losing streak.

Given how Dolphins fortunes had eroded in the final weeks, I wasn’t even sure I wanted Sanders to succeed until the kick split the uprights and long-suffering Dolfans erupted with joy. They certainly deserved a sip of satisfaction after the steady diet of crap sandwiches they’ve been fed by this franchise in this millennium.

The reaction to skidding into the final AFC wild-card spot (with help from the Bills defeating the Patriots) confirmed that it is always preferable for you team to make the playoffs under any circumstances — especially when the alternative would have been the ultimate despair of the worst collapse in franchise history.
The season-ending thud may well come Sunday at Buffalo against the AFC East champion Bills — all but the most unabashedly optimistic Dolphins fans expect it. But let’s take a moment to toast the success these Dolphins did have in the 2022 season.

McDaniel pulled off wild card

First-year coach Mike McDaniel, who was courted by no other team last offseason, led Miami to its first playoff appearance since 2016. He produced a much-improved offense and coaxed a breakthrough season from Tua Tagovailoa before the quarterback’s latest concussion kept him out of the last two games of the regular season and Sunday’s playoff. (More on Tua in a moment).

Superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill was named on Friday to the Associated Press All-Pro team for the fourth time in his first season with Miami. Hill set Dolphins’ records with 119 receptions and 1,710 yards.

Hill was clearly the team’s MVP as he proved to be everything the Dolphins hoped when they traded five draft picks to Kansas City and signed him for $120 million over four years.

The big surprise and the Dolphins’ major success story of the year was undrafted cornerback Kader Kohou playing well enough to be recognized with a place on the NFL All-Rookie team by the analytics website Sports Info Solutions. Kohou held up admirably while being targeted 106 times, the most among defensive backs in the league, posting a highly respectable 80.7 passer rating.

Kohou helped fill the void of Byron Jones missing the entire season. Signing him undrafted out of Texas A&M-Commerce somewhat offsets the mistake of picking Noah Igbinoghene in the first round in 2020.

Dolphins’ young talent stands out

Encouraging for the future, this Dolphins team has more standout players than seen in Miami in years. Most of them are young.
Second-year receiver Jaylen Waddle led the league in yards per reception (18.1) on 75 catches. His 1,356 yards ranked seventh in the league and were third in Dolphins history.

Defensive lineman Christian Wilkins has improved progressively and in his fourth season was an absolute beast. His 98 tackles were the most by an NFL defensive lineman since 1994 and a Dolphins record.

Zach Sieler’s 70 tackles ranked fifth among defensive linemen. Sieler, notably, was a waiver claim in 2019.

Linebacker Jaelan Phillips made a significant transformation in his second season from a pass-rush specialist to solid every-down defender with major improvement against the run. Pro Football Focus ranked him among the top 10 edge players in the league.

Tagovailoa’s future prospects a mystery

Still, the Dolphins will face a much more uneasy offseason than would be expected of a playoff team. Tagovailoa’s hazy football future is the main reason for that.
In addition, the defense underachieved despite the efforts of Wilkins, Phillips, Sieler, Kohou and the midseason addition of linebackerBradley Chubb — cornerback Xavien Howard and safety Jevon Holland didn’t have outstanding seasons but remain cornerstones in the secondary.

Shortcomings of the defense, which ranked bottom-third in the league in allowing 23.5 points a game, will need to be addressed. Will that start with a change at defensive coordinator or will Josh Boyer return?

But the most vexing concern is Tagovailoa. He led the league with a passer rating of 105.5 but missed 4 ½ games while suffering two and possibly three concussions.

If Tua is cleared to return to football and wants to continue his career, he will return as the starting quarterback next season. Considering the recurrence of head injuries and the slow recovery from the most recent concussion, that is no certainty.

Skylar Thompson to start in wild card game at Buffalo

McDaniel said early this week that his only concern was Tagovailoa “getting to full health as a human being,” not his playing career.
On Friday, McDaniel confirmed that Tua is out for Sunday and rookie Skylar Thompson will start against the Bills.

As for Tua’s progress in concussion protocol, McDaniel said: “The current stage is the same as it was last. He’s been around and been good and I’m just worried about his day-to-day health. I’ll let you know when it does advance, but besides checking on him and how he’s doing, it’s a big-time life adjustment when you go from playing to being out.”

The question of longevity makes investing long-term in Tua a risky proposition for the Dolphins. They don’t even have a first-round draft pick in 2023.

Dolphins 13-point dogs vs. Bills

Meanwhile, they will have Thompson, a rookie seventh-round pick, making his third NFL start and first playoff appearance opposite Josh Allen and the Bills.
No wonder the Dolphins are the biggest underdogs in this weekend’s playoffs, with the Bills favored by 13 points.

Coincidentally, the Dolphins went into their previous playoff game with back-up Matt Moore starting in place of Ryan Tannehill and were blown out 30-12 at Pittsburgh at the end of the 2016 season.

Dolfans certainly have reason to feel trepidation. In three wild-card appearances since they last won a playoff game (2000 season), they were lopsided loser by a combined 77-24 against the Ravens (twice) and the Steelers).

Asked about the perception that the Dolphins don’t have a chance at Buffalo, McDaniel said Friday: “I’m very used — that doesn’t make me, personally, blink. This just in — no one expected me personally to do anything that I’ve ever done, really. I think a journey of an NFL player is very similar with the amount of competition there is and how the parity is what it is. I think most guys on NFL teams have been told they couldn’t. It’s a really good football team that we’re playing, so we probably agree with people in that regard. … If we think we’re pretty good as well or have a higher opinion than everybody else, that’s not everybody else’s fault.

“If you’re happy with your investment, you can live with the outcome, regardless of what it is.”

So smile, Dolfans, your team is in the playoffs. It doesn’t happen often. It usually turns out ugly. The roster has been hit hard by injuries, but so has every other team at this stage of the season. The NFL is a league of attrition and surprises.

The Dolphins have two of the best receivers in football and other talented players mentioned above. Maybe with a couple starts under his belt, Thompson will perform more like he showed in preseason than he has so far in games that count and show that he may be a viable option for the future.

By the way, Thompson will have one thing in common with Dan Marino. They are the only rookies to start at quarterback for the Dolphins in the playoffs.
Getting to the playoffs, by whatever means, isn’t nothing. Might as well take a peek.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Victor Oladipo Makes His Teammates’ Jobs Easier

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Heat culture revived Victor Oladipo’s career. Then he saved the outfit’s season. In five of his last six games, he’s scored in double figures and helped Miami capture four wins. The five weeks it’s taken for Vic to find himself had a significant impact on the club’s two-way production.

It’s a darn shame the NBA has no official comeback player of the year award anymore. For the past four seasons, Oladipo has been plagued with injuries that robbed him of his natural gifts.

Since his first game this season for Miami on Dec. 6, Oladipo has suited up 17 out of 19 times. Before his insertion in the rotation, the Heat placed 18th in October and 13th in November in defensive rating. In December, Miami was ninth and currently first in the same stat for the six games played in January (4-2).

Even when he arrived in Miami, badly needing a second surgery to address the lingering pain in his right knee tendon, he was still a bullet on defense. He played in four games prior to reaggrevating the injury while logging 25 minutes in a win against the Lakers at home.

Last season, Oladipo doubled that to eight regular season matches between March. 7- Apr. 10, 2022. In the team’s last outing of the year against the Magic in Orlando, Vic had a 40-point outburst. His finest performance in the playoffs for Miami came when it eliminated the Hawks in Game 5 at home. It was his only start in the postseason, and he recorded 23 points with three rebounds and three takeaways.

On Thursday against a depleted Bucks squad, Oladipo came off the bench for 14 points, eight assists, eight rebounds and a steal. In his 33 minutes, he assisted Miami in securing the paint (18 points allowed) and holding Milwaukee to 40.2% shooting from the floor.

On his first score, he sized up Milwaukee’s Jordan Nwora on the left wing, then hit a triple in his face.

Pick and roll with Orlando Robinson provided Vic the opening to slice into the lane for a reverse layup under the rim on his next basket. His interception of a loose ball at the top of the key ignited a one-on-one fastbreak against Pat Connaughton on the next one. In full stride, Oladipo spun past his defender for a finish before the tracking Nwora could disrupt the play with a chase-down.

On his fourth make, Bam Adebayo set a screen against Jevon Carter. Unwisely, Carter went under the pick, and #4 canned a 27-foot triple. For his last field goal, Oladipo recovered his own missed jumper with no Bucks in the restricted area and went back up for a putback layup.

For the first time this season, the Miami Heat are three games above .500. This position is nothing to brag about, but considering how poorly the year began for the club, the group’s stock is rising. Oladipo is a significant factor behind that and probably the team’s fourth-best player. He can create separation without a screen, a skill that’s eluded Kyle Lowry because of age. For this reason, Miami must ride the wave of Vic’s solid play as long as it can.

His impact makes his teammates’ lives easier on the court. Listen to Tyler Herro. Following Miami’s loss on Sunday to the Nets, he said, “I tell [Oladipo] when I’m playing off the ball, it helps me a lot when he’s in the game. Just cause they’re so focused on me. When Vic comes in it gives another threat who can shoot, attack and do really everything offensively… He looks for me in transition. I tell him to be aggressive as much as possible.”

If this production level from Oladipo continues, the probability of the Heat securing home-court advantage through round one of the playoffs doesn’t seem so unrealistic.

 

 

 

 

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Historic Night for Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat

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On Tuesday, the Heat survived being undermanned and a meltdown of one of their own. Without Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin, Miami beat the Oklahoma City Thunder by a point in a match that had 10 lead changes, six ties, as well as personal and team records set.

To dictate evening affairs within the first few minutes, Miami had pierced the lane for 10 of its first 13 points. The only outside shot was a Max Strus triple, created by Jimmy Butler absorbing the defense on a post-up and having the ball swing outside until it reached mad Max in the corner.

The hosts sliced up the point-of-attack defense, found a weak spot in the post, plus logged two points off a recovery. On the second score for Miami, Orlando Robinson caught the ball a few feet from the basket following OKC’s blitz on Gabe Vincent. Swarmed by Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miami’s backup big man canned a four-foot hook shot.

Then, Strus took Jalen Williams off the dribble on the left wing for a lane floater in between SGA along with his initial defender.

The Heat bricked back-to-back triples in the same possession, but Haywood Highsmith, camping on the right baseline, recouped a second miss and went back up for a layup, using his left shoulder as a shield.

Pick and roll with Butler and Robinson sucked in the OKC’s 2-3 zone. Next, Butler passed to Vincent on the right wing. The opening in front allowed him into probe the lane for a shot at the cup.

As Giddey punctured the paint in transition, Robinson intercepted his pass to Eugene Omoruyi, sparking a boat race for Butler in the open court. In the interior, he muscled past SGA for a one-foot layup. Timeout OKC.

The Heat had defensive lapses in the first half, but stunningly, the Thunder recorded 56 points for the period. Max Strus fouled a 3-point shooter. Miami’s 2-3 zone was dissected allowing multiple backdoor cuts, which led to a spat between coach and pupil.

As Dewayne Dedmon was subbed out for Robinson a few minutes into the second quarter, Heat assistant coach Caron Butler scolded him for his ghastly zone coverage after giving up the baseline multiple times. Then D-Mac lost his cool. He whined at coach Spo before getting told to bounce to the locker room. On his way to the dressers, he smacked a surface that catapulted a massage gun onto the floor, stopping regulation. The refs then formally ejected him.

Dedmon’s insolence could have caused a young team or a damaged outfit to nosedive in the game after his theatrics. Fortunately for the Heat, even without combustible firepower or with their backup big’s volatile sideline crisis, they had enough against a rebuilding squad.

Yet, Miami’s ace through four quarters was Butler. He converted all 14 free throws in the first half and would finish the game a flawless 23 out of 23 from the charity stripe. His production tied Dwyane Wade’s record for most free throws made by a Heat player in a game set on Feb.1, 2007. This kind of action was like watching Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans disembowel a defensive line.

Butler’s dominion of the stripe assisted the Heat defensively because it took away fastbreak opportunities that the Thunder usually thrive in. OKC is third in the NBA in pace (102.35). On Tuesday, Miami slowed them down to nearly two points below their average (1.85) and shockingly scored more in the open court than the visitors (14-13).

The second half was ugly. Miami made only 33.3% of its field goals and 29.4% of its triples and was outrebounded 27-19. No one aside from Butler recorded more than three baskets (4) in the last 24 minutes.

In the fourth quarter, Strus, Vincent and Victor Oladipo played every minute. While down 96-91 with eight minutes left, OKC committed a clear path foul against Vic, giving him two freebies with Miami keeping possession. Oladipo buried both; then he hoisted up a 3-pointer from the left wing that missed. Strus back-tapped an offensive rebound to Vincent at the top of the key. Gabe took one dribble forward, splashed the triple, and one more at the line after a foul by Tre Mann to complete a six-point swing.

With 53.1 seconds left, the Heatles were down five points. An Oladipo transition triple on the left wing, two missed freebies by OKC’s Kenrich Williams, and Butler’s bucket plus his 23rd free throw, dug Miami out of its grave. That last point to put Miami over at 112-111 was Miami’s 40th attempted and made free throw of the night, setting a new NBA record.

After the game, Spo said he and his staff were enjoying being 1-0 in the second half of the season and that going to the presser was a buzzkill. On what occurred, he said, “To be able to get 23 free throws reminds me of another guy.”

Butler, as usual, was more excited about the dub than records. “I’m proud of my guys, and I hope my other guys get healthy so we can get back out there and compete as well.”

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Adebayo, Herro and Oladipo are Stunting on Tour

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Quietly, the Miami Heat have turned into road warriors. They’ve won eight out of their last eleven games away from FTX Arena, stretching back to Nov. 27.  One of the victories was against the San Antonio Spurs on neutral territory in Mexico City.

 

On Monday evening, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo continued stunting on tour and were Miami’s key players in consecutive road wins.  Two nights before in Utah without Jimmy Butler, Miami found itself in a second-half shootout.  

 

The defense against the Jazz wasn’t sharp, giving up 123 points, but it wasn’t an abomination either.  The Heatles locked down the interior, only allowing 32 points, but where they suffered was containing snipers behind the 3-point line.  It’s too much to give up, yet, it can be excused that time only because Butler was out and due to all of the encouraging signs seen on offense. 

 

Adebayo was a pick-and-roll merchant, finishing off passes from Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Herro.  On one sequence, after the pick, Adebayo caught a Herro pass at the elbow and spun into the lane for a fall-away jumper over Kelly Olynyk. He also hit four mid-range shots, one at the left elbow and three from both mid posts.  

 

Oladipo logged 23 points on 45% efficiency with three steals, five assists, five rebounds and a block.  He scored from three areas, hitting two inside the paint, one from mid-range, plus four triples.  When Vic isolated Lauri Markkanen at the top of the key, he drove right, dusting his mismatch and nailed a layup off the glass over Walker Kessler’s help side contest.  

 

Oladipo’s last close-range finish came with over six minutes left, with Miami down 107-104.  Again at the key, Oladipo went one-on-one, this time with Olynyk.  He drove right and hit the launching pad outside of the restricted area and challenged the active shot blocker, Kessler, for a ruthless jam with contact.  

 

Herro was cold from the outside.  Before the final play, he converted two out of nine shots beyond the arc but was an immaculate five of five in the interior.  Throughout four quarters, he wrapped around front-court screens for quick entry into the lane for floaters and pull-up jumpers while also punching one fastbreak dunk.

 

Strangely, it’s not a preferred strategy of coach Erik Spoelstra to have his team foul the other club when Miami is up three points, and the other team has the final possession.  This put the Heat in a position to potentially get hosed.  Miami’s Haywood Highsmith was called for a phantom foul on Lauri Markkanen’s triple to tie.  At the charity line, the Finnish assassin buried three.  Tie game.

 

On the last play of the night, the ball was inbounded to Herro with six seconds left.  Jordan Clarkson attempted full-court press, but a stun dribble by #13 froze him, getting his defender running at his right hip as he dribbled with his left.  Herro then took off one leg behind the arc, in between two defenders and another in front, for a triple that cashed as the horn sounded.   

 

On Monday night, Butler was back in the lineup for the game versus the Clippers.  Fortunately for the visitors, Kawhi Leonard missed his 23rd night of the season, giving the Heat a chance to throw more schemes at Paul George.  Miami ended the evening, limiting George to seven out of 16 shooting from the floor.  PG’s defensive field goal percentage against the five Heat players he switched onto was 60% on 10 tries.

 

The Clippers could barely score in the box.  The Heat’s 2-3 zone was masterful in dissuading close-range looks, only allowing 26 attempts in the interior for 28 points.

 

Miami was also solid attacking the glass, out-rebounding LAC by 14 when only having four fewer turnovers.

 

Butler had an off-game.  He was getting to the line but not making freebies at his usual rate while finding open teammates.  Once again, Bam, Tyler and Vic took over with serious contributions from Strus.  

 

Adebayo broke 30 points(31) for the fifth time this season and had at least 30 in back-to-back games for the second time in his career.  The first occasion was this campaign in wins over 

Washington and Atlanta on Nov. 25 & 27.  

 

With just over eight minutes left, Strus curled into the lane with the help of Adebayo’s screen.  He missed under the rim, but Bam trailed the play and put back a thunderous slam.  

 

Once more, he was a threat in pick and roll/pop with Herro.  Even against multiple solid contests from Ivica Zubac at the nail, Bam pulled up off the catch for two points each time.

 

Herro was explosive from deep, logging five out of nine made triples, all in between the wings. Off a handoff from Adebayo, Herro splashed a 3-pointer over the four tentacles of John Wall and Zubac.  

 

Three of Herro’s long-range missiles came off dribble pull-ups, one of them scored in transition in front of Reggie Jackson, who was dropped too low by the free-throw line.

 

While the Heat was up seven points with fewer than two minutes left, Herro crossed PG and got to the mid-post for a shot over the four limbs of Jackson and George to put Miami up nine.  

 

Oladipo has looked like the former Black Panther in his latest pair of games.  Against the Clippers, he recorded 15 points on six out of 11 shots and held his eight matchups to 38% shooting from the field.

 

Vic and Tyler were the only Heatles to play every fourth-quarter minute.  At the right wing, Oladipo broke down Luke Kennard and dribbled over to the nail for a one-legged step-back jumper.  Later in the period, he targeted Kennard again and found the switch when Strus curled to the key and split the screen.  Oladipo then dashed toward the restricted area for a soft kiss off the glass.  

 

With Monday’s win over the Clippers, Butler (21.3) has now fallen behind Adebayo (21.5) and Herro (21.5) in scoring average for the team, per NBA Stats.  #13 and #14 continue to climb the mountain of NBA development, and lately, it’s paid dividends for an outfit that has had its best player in and out of the lineup.  

 

The Heat’s record is now two games above .500 for the first time this season (20-18).  Perhaps they are turning the page on a poor start. 

Tua Tagovailoa will miss the Dolphins' game at New England and possibly more.

Pressure Point: Tua’s uncertain future puts Dolphins in a bind

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Maybe the Miami Dolphins will clinch that elusive wild card on Sunday. All they need is a win at New England — they’ve won four in a row against the Patriots — and a Jets loss at Seattle.

It would be a feel-good story with backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater leading his hometown team into the playoffs. But it would mask the reality of the star-crossed Dolphins, who don’t seem like a legitimate playoff team while reeling on a four-game losing streak and with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s future again clouded by another concussion.

They have gone from having the upper hand in the AFC East at 8-3 to clinging to the hope of the final wild card in the expanded playoffs.

They have a porous defense with an injury depleted secondary that ranks last in the league on the road — and they would be on the road for the playoffs.

But Tagovailoa’s latest concussion is the biggest reason for the Dolphins’ not so happy New Year.

Recurring concussions jeopardize Tua’s career

Tua’s unsteady December had already revived old questions about his ability to deliver at an elite level — he performed well at Buffalo but was poor to erratic in the other three losses.

It wasn’t even clear when he got hurt in last week’s loss to the Packers. His three interceptions in the fourth quarter sealed the Dolphins’ fate that day.

The two, and quite possibly three, concussions Tagovailoa has suffered this season are much more concerning for the immediate future of the franchise.

Durability has always been the main question about Tua. In college at Alabama it was lower body. With the Dolphins it’s been something every year. The recurring head injuries suggest his career may be on a short leash.

That farewell press conference, when a teary Tagovailoa steps to the microphone and says that in the interest of his own health and his family’s well being that he is done with football, could come at any time.

Maybe at the end of this season. Maybe after a couple more knocks to the head next season. With multiple injuries to his brain, Tua has certainly entered a danger zone.

Dolphins face offseason challenges

Tua may well return next week for the season finale against the Jets with a possible playoff start to follow. But uncertainty about the quarterback’s future puts the Dolphins in a predicament going forward.

They must decide by May whether to exercise Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option for 2024. Meanwhile, they are limited in resources if they decide he’s not the long-term solution they were banking on — or if his health prevents him from being that.

More from Five Reasons Sports: Three key for the Dolphins at New England

The Dolphins don’t have a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They will enter the offseason with less than $5 million in cap space.

Rookie Skylar Thompson, who impressed in extended opportunity in the preseason, has flopped so far in limited time during the regular season.

Dolphins’ season falling short of expectations

So for the moment the Dolphins’ fate is in the hands of journeyman Bridgewater, who has his own history of concussions.

With high winds expected Sunday at Gillette Stadium, the Dolphins would be wise to saddle up their running game and hope the defense can hold a not-great Patriots offense in check.

If they succeed in making it five in a row against the Belichicks and the Jets return winless from Seattle, it will be Miami’s first trip to the playoffs since the 2016 season.

That’s not nothing, but this season held the possibility of so much more just over a month ago when Tua was leading a five-game winning streak and hearing “MVP” chants at home.

The picture isn’t so rosy now, even with a possible playoff trip in store. The franchise may be encountering stronger headwinds just down the road.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Don’t Blame Kyle Lowry for the Miami Heat’s Mess

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In 18 months, Kyle Lowry has played in 103 games, regular season + Playoffs, for the Miami Heat. He’s helped them get to Game 7 of the eastern conference finals and is currently assisting the group in regaining ground in the standings (eighth, 17-17).

Since he got to Miami, Lowry has dealt with fair and unjust criticism. It’s written enough online that he hasn’t scored enough or got inside the paint with two feet as easily as in previous stops. One of the most common verbal jabs was that he looked too heavy.

Miami started well in 2021/2022. It masked the eye test of the unit’s lead guard performing below expectations. He played too much from the outside, and his numbers were down significantly. This season, he’s operating the same way, but the Miami Heat hasn’t achieved nearly the same level of success because of too many issues plaguing the team.

Likely the Heat’s no.1 problem is that Jimmy Butler has missed 38.2% of the season. Through Miami’s first 34 games in 2021/2022, JB appeared in 19 matches, and the Heat held a 21-13 record, per Basketball Reference. That type of achievement is unsustainable in back-to-back years in the NBA without a team’s best player.

This season has been filled with crushing disappointments at home. Did Lowry ominously drop off when he got to Miami, or is this the player he was for a while before wearing white hot?

Lowry will be 37 on March 25. He hasn’t taken more than half of his shots from inside the arc since 2015/2016. In those seven seasons after, #7 has only had three years where over 40% of his attempts were 2-pointers.

The Heatles aren’t as lethal from 3-point range through 34 games as they were when they got to the ECF. Then, Miami was second in the NBA in efficiency from the corners and second in percentage on above the break triples. This season, the Heat are 29th and 17th in those categories.

With the Heat not converting at the same rate as it previously did, opponents can now liberally send more help on drives or cuts to the basket, daring Miami into a drive-and-kick. That’s not a favorable coverage for someone who has lost a step or two.

Most times Lowry gets by a defender in the half court, he has the help of a screen. In the open court, he is dangerous because of his high IQ and on-target hit-ahead passes. The issue is that Miami is not a group that plays fast. They are 26th in transition frequency and 28th in pace.

Even if the Heat were to play quicker, I’m not sure how much Lowry’s body could sustain competing for the 35.9 minutes he is now before bumps and bruises emerge. He’s currently averaging two more minutes a night than last season and is on pace to play nine more games.

It’s an unrealistic expectation to hold someone in their mid-30s to the standard they set while in their prime. Some fools might continue to place too much responsibility on Lowry because of the dimensions of his contract ending in 2024. Whatever he earns is the fault of the front office, not his.

The front office’s gamble paid off splendidly last year. The Heat was probably a shot away from a second trip in three seasons to the NBA Finals. It was also one of the most exciting years for supporters in the franchise’s history. I won’t take that for granted.

The Heat are stuck in purgatory, but this season is only 41% over. I’ve seen stranger and more fortunate things happen to those less deserving, like the 2018/2019 Houston Rockets. On Dec. 12, 2018, the James Harden-led squad had won 12 games, and the outfit was 14th in the western conference. That team, inspired by a historic run from the Beard, finished as the fourth seed with 53 wins.

For the Heat to get the most out of Lowry, it will need its best players around consistently. Key guys in-and-out of the lineup hurts the team’s continuity.