For the first 21 minutes of Sunday’s competitive affair at Miami-Dade Arena, the Heat’s vain play from Friday night continued. As halftime approached, supporters grew anxious as NOLA’s lead ballooned to 16 points.  Then, Miami flipped like a light switch and found a pulse on offense.

In the first quarter, the Pelicans were ravaging the paint, converting easily without all five Heatles getting back on multiple possession changes, and beating the hosts in the half-court.  Jonas Valanciunas overpowered Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler in the post, then hit an elbow jumper when #13 sagged off him.

In transition, CJ McCollum used a pick on the left wing to slither to the nail for a jumper in front of Adebayo in drop coverage.  On a broken play with eight seconds left on the shot clock, CJ reset at the top of the key and blew by Victor Oladipo for an unchallenged make at the rim.  Orlando Robinson was the Heat’s closest big man, but he was jammed by Larry Nance Jr’s back screen.  

All three of Trey Murphy III’s first-half baskets came on fastbreaks.  As the Heat jogged back, he sprinted hard, running the right and left lanes.  

NOLA routinely doubled Butler in the mid-post, a strategy used successfully by the Mavericks on Friday.  Through 24 minutes, Butler had five points, none coming in the half-court.  Ball movement was not up to standards for the sixth straight quarter. And Miami’s marksmen, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, shot four blanks for the period.  

In the last few minutes of the half, Miami scratched its way back with a 10-0 run. Defensively, they strangled NOLA at the point of attack by intercepting a couple of passes, creating its fastbreak chances.  It all started with the charge Lowry drew on Nance in transition.  

Herro nailed a triple on the left wing on account of Robinson picking up #14’s first miss from the same spot.  Next, Lowry snatched Herb Jones’ errant pass from the right wing to the other for a break that finished with a soft Oladipo layin.  

Dribbling back into Miami territory, McCollum forced a switch against Herro, but Oladipo doubled.  Trying to pass out of the blitz to Jones, Butler deflected the rock, Oladipo recovered it and gave it right back to JB for the layup plus a free throw.

On the next play, Adebayo and Oladipo blitzed McCollum again on the wing.  Both defenders overwhelmed him, and #4 pulled the ball out of his grasp, then hit Herro with a hit-ahead pass he scored on. 

In the last 24 minutes, Miami secured the perimeter.  New Orleans converted four out of 16 attempts and committed 12 of its 24 turnovers.  The Heat also found a way to get to the line for 18 of its 27 tries, finishing the night with 22 made freebies.  

With three minutes left, the Pelicans were down two points.  Through nine minutes of the fourth quarter, the rivals were shooting 50% from the floor.  Subsequently, Lowry scored the following nine points for the Heat.  

The first bucket was a step-back triple on the right wing against Nance in drop coverage.  On the succeeding offensive possession, Jaxson Hayes bit on a fake at the post.  Lowry maneuvered around him for a banker off the glass.  For the third bucket, he took rookie Dyson Daniels off the dribble at the key for a two-foot shot.  His last basket was a pull-up jumper in front of Nance at the elbow.  

In a game that both squads combined for 45 turnovers, six Heatles recorded a steal, and they won the points off turnovers battle 15-10.  It’s incomparable to how Dallas smoked them in the same stat, 31-10.

At the postgame presser, coach Erik Spoelstra was humorful about the team’s 21st game decided by five points or fewer.  “Every night.  This is must-see, must-be TV and action live.”

On the topic of vintage Lowry looking for his spots, he praised his QB.  “That last three minutes, he read that intuitively.  Anytime we were trying to make a pass, they were making a deflection or a steal.  It was more get to an action and get a shot on goal.  He’ll felt that.  He understood that…”

It’s a shame no one asked him why Lowry hasn’t recognized those situations for most of the season. 

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For the second time in a week, the Miami Heat came up winless on primetime TV. First in Atlanta on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, then on Friday, in Dallas for a second-half buzzsaw as brutal as JFK’s ride through the city. The team’s tape review will assuredly be as horrifying as the Zapruder Film.

Miami only logged three assists and six field goals in the first quarter. The Mavs’ length in man-to-man coverage, plus double-teaming Jimmy Butler in the half-court, froze the Heat’s offense. Bam Adebayo, uncharacteristically, laid five close-range duds in the period and didn’t record his first basket until a minute into the second quarter, his sixth attempt. The two positive team signs that followed were that Miami found chances at the line and Victor Oladipo never went cold.

The Heatles managed to slow the game down with its 27 charity stripe shots, but that didn’t stop the wild horses. When Miami deployed drop coverage against Luka Dončić in pick and roll, Adebayo was the low man unable to contain his drive to the cup. Again in PNR, this time against Caleb Martin playing tight, Dončić dribbled left towards the wing, stepped back and canned a triple.

The end of the first quarter was an omen. With three seconds left, Luka caught the ball at midcourt off a sideline inbound, assisted by Dwight Powell’s screen on Adebayo. Martin reached and missed on the steal, leaving Dončić dribbling towards the right wing. From 37 feet away, he splashed over Max Strus’ late contest.

Through 12 minutes, Miami was down by 14 points. They managed to cut the deficit to nine at the intermission, led by Oladipo’s four out of four made shots and Adebayo and Tyler Herro remembering how to score.

Vic isolated Powell for a running hook with no help, blew by Reggie Bullock for a layup, hit two shots after curling into the lane aided by a screen and buried a transition triple. Bam hit a couple of layups in transition with one tap-in off Herro’s miss from the left wing. Like an elite offensive lineman, #13 provided the openings for his man, Herro, to creep into the paint on two of his baskets. Tyler’s other two field goals came zipping past Tim Hardaway Jr. for a pull-up and a turnaround hook in the low post.

Of course, what followed was the turd quarter. This festering issue came back like the unwelcome yearly tax bill. In this frame, the Heatles were beat on the glass by six and misfired on 13 out of 19 shots and three of its six free throws.

Kyle Lowry’s first-quarter spark didn’t have an encore. He recorded a couple of transition baskets and then made one free throw through 12 minutes in quarters two and three. He didn’t take a shot in his eight minutes of second-half action.

Errors were also made on the other side. Even on a SLOB pass, a late switch on Dončić, the inbounder, left Spencer Dinwiddie open on the right wing for a triple. Defending PNR, Miami blitzed Luka with Oladipo and Martin up top on the right. It was no thang. Dončić passed over both of them, finding the roll man, Powell, in the middle for a bank shot.

Unfortunately for the visitors, there was no mercy rule after 36 minutes. Courtesy of the Mavericks’ 25-point lead, Butler and Lowry rested during the final period. The most alarming stat of the evening was Miami was wiped out in points off turnovers, 31-10, in favor of Dallas.

Coach Erik Spoelstra said postgame the night was wasted. “We were never able to have that competitive disposition that we’ve had virtually all season long…”

Politely, Spo told everyone his team gave up.

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The Miami Heat is currently enjoying its best (and healthiest) stretch of basketball this season. They’ve won 12 of their last 18 games and appear poised to make up lost ground over the remaining 37 games. In the midst of finding a rhythm, a scintillating two-game stretch from Gabe Vincent has ignited an interesting debate among Heat fans:

Should Vincent continue to start at point guard, even when Kyle Lowry returns to the lineup?

Before setting the stage, we have to get one thing clear: shame on Lowry. The sole fact that this is even up for debate is an indictment on his tenure in Miami. Sure, there have been some good moments. But ultimately his impact has not lived up to the near $30 million yearly price tag it took to acquire him. Because of that, two-impressive games from Vincent against the Milwaukee Bucks’ JV team was all it took for fans to begin beating the drum. Let it be known that this discussion has much more to do with Lowry than it does with Vincent. Let’s proceed.

At face value, the Heat are an average team offensively. At least that’s what the numbers indicate. They are outscoring opponents by less than a point per 100 possessions (0.4) and it has them sitting in the 52nd percentile as a result.

With Lowry on the floor, the numbers get worse.

Across the 1,257 minutes he’s played this season, Miami is a -2.4 per 100 possessions. That’s a pretty big sample size. As for Vincent, the numbers tell an entirely different story. The Heat is a +2.8 per 100 possessions in his 782 minutes on the floor this season.

In nearly every advanced stat, Miami is a negative with Lowry and a positive with Vincent – both offensively and defensively.

That said, it would be naive to derive an opinion from solely looking at just one source of individual advanced stat. After all, injuries have forced Miami to trot out a plethora of different lineup combinations and taking a closer look could paint a better picture.

The Heat’s most-used lineup this season has been that of Lowry – Tyler Herro – Caleb Martin – Jimmy Butler – Bam Adebayo. This group has seen a total of 405 possessions together and has been solid in every way. They are outscoring teams by more than nine points per 100 possessions and forcing turnovers on 18.4% of opponents possessions. That’s like, really good. (It’s also an indicator on where Miami would be if they could just stay healthy).

Things get even more interesting if you substitute Vincent for Lowry with the rest of the group staying the same. Are you ready for these numbers? In Vincent’s 68 total possessions with the rest of Miami’s starters, the Heat are outscoring opponents by 23.5 points per 100 possessions and humming with a 61.1 eFG%. I know, it’s a very small sample size, but we’re here to have some fun, right?

It’s plain as day. Vincent has been more valuable to the Heat this season during his time on the floor per the numbers. Overreacting to a few good games and making drastic changes isn’t wise. But with Lowry continuing to operate on career-low efficiency and Miami flirting with play-in territory, they are running out of time to figure it out.

Vincent has the hot hand. His offensive spark is exactly what the Heat need to jumpstart their climb back to being one of the many juggernauts of the East.

 And if one thing is true it’s this: Erik Spoelstra isn’t afraid to ride the hot hand. Just ask Duncan Robinson.

The Heatles went 2-0 in the miniseries against the Fawns between Thursday and Saturday in Miami. Giannis Antetokounmpo sat because of knee soreness, a gift for the hosts that assisted in padding its league record. Now, for the first time this season, the Heat are four games above .500.

Miami’s 2-3 zone followed up its masterful work securing the interior and influencing the Bucks to almost exclusively play from the outside. Over both games, Milwaukee logged a meager 44 points in the paint. Yet, on Saturday, the Bucks got five more attempts in the square (25) than it had previously. Although, Miami held them to 24.4 percentage points below the league average in the restricted area (40%).

More evidence that the zone neutered the Bucks: Bobby Portis, who converts 69% of tries at the rim and half from 3-10 feet, for the season, missed two in the restricted area and shot 33% in the rest of the lane, plus Brook Lopez attempted just one shot in the box.Typically, half of Lopez’s looks come from the paint.

Miami started the first half sizzling from deep, primarily behind the marksmanship of Kyle Lowry’s understudy, Gabe Vincent, who made five out of seven 3-pointers for the period. While he took spot-up shots and splashed trays off the dribble, he was as radiant as the Wolf-Rayet star.

Vincent’s first two-pointer didn’t come until early in the second quarter. A failed pick by Orlando Robinson minimally freed Gabe from AJ Green in the right corner. Green went over the screen, taking away the driving lane, but Vincent pulled up for a long contested two that swished.

Next, as #2 dribbled in transition, Bam Adebayo screened Grayson Allen at the top of the key. Vincent used the opening to get to the nail for his second jumper, unbothered.

For his third midrange shot of the half, Adebayo, again, shielded his defender in the halfcourt at the top. Vincent stepped into the lane, attacked Portis in drop coverage, and hit a floater covered by the low man and his initial matchup, Allen.

At the intermission, Vincent had 21 points. His efficiency from the field continued in the last 24 minutes but on a smaller volume of three out of four made buckets with an assist, a rebound and a pair of steals. He finished the game with 27 points, two shy of the career high he set on Thursday.

At the postgame press conference, Vincent said, “I think I was just in a rhythm, and my guys did a really good job of getting me open time and time again. Whether that’s shutting the screen or cutting, or finding me when I’m open in the corner… They did a good job of that, and I made some shots. That always helps.”

These back-to-back games for Vincent scoring at least 20 points have only happened four times in his career. The first time was in 2021, between Jan. 12-14. The second was later that year, from Dec. 15-17. The third was in 2022, on Feb. 28 and March 2. His latest was Thursday and Saturday. For whatever it’s worth, the starting point guard for this team, Lowry, has only done that three times in a Heat uniform through one and a half seasons.

The production at the one spot has been so unreliable this year for the Heatles that Vincent’s last week of play should instantly spark a controversy over who gets the shine and who becomes the squire. This is not an overreaction to facing a two-time MVP-less squad. The last time Lowry recorded at least 20 points in a game was on Dec. 23, and he’s done it in six of his 36 nights of action. Keep in mind there are currently 42 players qualifying for league leaders who are averaging at least 20 a night.

For the record, holding that average for a starting point guard is unnecessary. But shooting above 40% for the season is. This puts Miami in an awkward spot because both Lowry and Vincent are below that.

Age has diminished Lowry’s ability. If Vincent doesn’t take his spot he should eat a large chunk of the veteran’s minutes.