Jaylen Waddle celebrates his touchdown catch in the Miami Dolphins' win over the Carolina Panthers.

Pressure Point: Dolphins, Tagovailoa have historic turnaround within reach

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The never-enough-crowd that is relentlessly sifting through Tua Tagovailoa’s 84-percent completion rate over the past two weeks for any nit to pick with the second-year quarterback is absolutely missing the point of what is transpiring with the Miami Dolphins.

Something remarkable is taking shape in their rise from a 1-7 half-season debacle in a potentially historic turnaround, now at four consecutive wins and more within reach.

After Sunday’s 33-10 dismantling of the Carolina Panthers, it is unquestionably realistic that the Dolphins could run through the next four middling opponents — Giants, Saints, Jets, Titans (sans Derrick Henry) — to set up a season-ending showdown with the Patriots.

No NFL team has made the playoffs after a 1-7 start. In 2015, the Chiefs were 1-5 and won 10 in a row to grab a wild-card spot.

Playoff format favorable

Considering there are three wild cards in each conference this season, there could be a lot at stake in that Jan. 9 encounter at Hard Rock Stadium if the Dolphins can get there at 9-7.

Too bad there are so many kill joys who dwell on whatever they wish Tagovailoa was — specifically Justin Herbert — rather than recognizing what he is becoming, which is looking better each week.

They brush off his performance against the Panthers — 27-of-31 (87.1 percent) for 230 yards and a passer rating of 108.5 — because most of the throws were short shots underneath the coverage. Some of the critics think passer rating is a bogus stat, so Tua gets no credit for that.

They can’t point to an ill-served interception this week, because Tua didn’t throw any.

Tau to Waddle winning combo

He did throw for a touchdown, and in my view it was his most impressive throw Sunday, an absolute dart into a tight spot to Jaylen Waddle for a 9-yard touchdown on third down to put Miami ahead to stay.

The Panthers aren’t a very good team, but they did come into Sunday with the top-rated passing defense in the league.

Most significant is the connection Tagovailoa is building with Waddle, who has 77 catches and is on pace for 109, which would be an NFL rookie record. While his season average is just under 10 yards per reception, Waddle averaged 15.2 yards against Carolina with nine catches for 137 yards.

Waddle said he’s been following the example of his former Alabama teammate.

“I think Tua grew as a player. I’m trying to grow as a player,” Waddle said. “Just learning what he do and his new knowledge and me going out there every week and learning something new and just putting it all together.”

Amazing stat: Since Tua returned from his rib injury in Week 6, Waddle has 50 receptions, most in the league during that span and second most in receiving yards with 528.

Dolphins still can’t run

Look, a lot of the Dolphins’ passing game is compensating for a lack of an effective running game. They averaged only 2.8 yards a carry Sunday, though newcomer Phillip Lindsay looked like a useful pickup in his first Dolphins test with 42 yards on 12 carries.

If your line can’t open holes and your running backs are limited, short passes are a logical option. Still, you need a quarterback to distribute the ball, like a good point guard, to a variety of receivers on time in space to keep moving the chains.

In three games since returning from his finger injury, Tagovailoa has done that with surgical efficiency. Beginning with the relief effort in the win over the Ravens, he is 62 of 77 (81 percent) for 661 yards, with three touchdowns and that one crappy interception against the Jets.

The key takeaway from those three games is the combination of growth Tua has shown and the reemergence of the Miami defense has yielded three wins by a combined margin of 42 points.

But let’s knock him because he didn’t hit Mack Hollins in stride on that long pass against the Jets that, oh by the way, did result in a 65-yard touchdown. And never mind that he’s operating without starting wide receivers DeVante Parker and Will Fuller.

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Tua thriving despite haters

Can’t recall a less objectionable player who has been as maligned as Tua, especially considering he wasn’t terrible even as he was going through growing pains at the toughest position in the most demanding sport.

Nonetheless, the hate continues to flow because, well, the Dolphins could have had Justin Herbert, who has the big arm and must certainly walk on water.

The possibility was that Herbert and Tagovailoa were both going to be very good NFL quarterbacks. We’re starting to see it now with Tua.

To me, the bigger talking point of this strange Dolphins season should be: Where was the defense we’re seeing the past few weeks during the 1-7 start?

This is the sort of freewheeling Flores defense that had a lot to do with the 2020 team going 10-6. That was MIA through the first half of the season.

On Sunday, they had five sacks, three interceptions and drove Cam Newton to the bench.

Rookies bolster Dolphins defense

So what changed? Maybe in part the speech coach Brian Flores gave after the seventh consecutive loss about believing in his players lit a fire. More tangible is the impact of rookies Jaelan Phillips, who had three sacks against Carolina, and safety Jevon Holland, who had an interception.

Stuff happens in football, and it rarely follows a predictable course. The Dolphins opened with a win at New England that probably wouldn’t have gone their way without the late takeaway by Xavien Howard. Subsequently, Miami lost in overtime to the Raiders and on last-second field goals to the Jaguars and Falcons. So they weren’t getting blown out in many of the losses.

Teams evolve over the course of a season, upward or down. Lately it appears these Dolphins may be closer to the team they were expected to be. And Tua may turn out to be a competent, winning NFL quarterback after all.

The social media age has illuminated that people hate to wait for anything. This Dolphins team may just be the lesson that sometimes the wait is worth it.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Quarter Season Takeaways from the Miami Heat’s Start

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Nineteen games into the season, with Chicago next, the Heat have shown they are a good team and now there is enough of a sample size to begin to draw some key takeaways on what they’ve shown thus far. The Heat are currently sitting at 12-7 while holding the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference, boasting the leagues #4 Net Rating, but they have hit a rut lately, going 5-5 in their last 10 games. What is there to be excited about? What is there to be concerned about? Why haven’t some things looked the way we expected, hopefully this article can help answer some of those questions.

Bam Adebayo: Growing pains of turning into a “Flat-out scorer?”

Before the season began, Pat Riley was quoted saying “I think you might see a flat-out scorer this year” when asked about Bam Adebayo’s development. About a quarter into the season, Heat faithful have seen a flat-out increase of .3PPG. The lack of raw statistical scoring improvements have made it tough to see why Riley would make these comments before the season.. Let’s take a look into why the man with “no ceiling” is capping out at 19 PPG.

The first question to ask is: Is Bam Adebayo taking the same kind of shots?

The short answer to this question is yes, for the most part. As shown in the charts below, there is a larger percentage of layups, which directly correlates to a higher FG% and a higher FTr (one of the most underrated components of scoring) There is also nearly double the percentage of fadeaways, which can be a valuable tool, but are objectively inefficient shots that hurt more than they help the offense. Outside of these non-drastic changes, Adebayo is still a predominantly jump shot based player on offense, which is not surprising given the fact that he is an undersized center.

The second question to ask: Is Bam Adebayo creating his own shot more?

19 games in, the answer is yes, Adebayo has seen an increase from 34% of his made field goals being unassisted in 20-21’ to 40.5% of his made field goals being unassisted in 21-22’. The increase in self-creation is a pro that has come with its cons, as Adebayo’s FG% has decreased by 5.4% or in terms of totals, he’s missing about half a shot more per game than he would have last year.

The third question to ask: Why is Bam Adebayo not scoring more per game?

As simple as it sounds, Adebayo’s in a scoring slump. In today’s NBA it’s quite strange for a “non-shooter” to be in a slump but here we are. After comparing his 20-21′ FG efficiency to this year’s, research showed that Pull-up shooting is down from 40.9% to 28.9%, Catch-and-Shoot is down from 46.5% to 36.7%, and Layups are down from 57.8% to 52.1%. Factoring volume into the equation, Adebayo is missing out on acombined 1.5 PPG by underperforming on his easily repeatable efficiencies from the year prior. The overall increase of play-finishing as opposed to play-initiating that he has had to do has led to some faulty process (short-range pull-ups, increase in fadeaways) that should be limited moving forward, but these are the growing pains to a complete shifting of role for a star in the NBA.

Perhaps this won’t resonate with most Heat fans but a 24-year-old perennial DPOY candidate with above average stationary playmaking skills and a 20 to 21 PPG skill set that does not rely solely on the creation of others, sounds like the type of player any franchise would want to build around.

Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry: Is the shooting gone?

Going into the season, the expectation was that Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson would be the premier 3-point shooters, who could combine to take a Butler and Adebayo offense to an elite level. Through 19 games, that sentiment could not be further from reality. The duo is combining to shoot 32.2% from 3 on 15.2 3 point attempts a game. This 3-point mark is good for .96 PPP, the same efficiency at which Tobias Harris scores in Isolation, yikes.

 

To make matters even more disheartening, their struggles are coming largely on the easier type of 3 point shot: catch-and-shoot opportunities (C&S). Robinson is shooting 32.1% on a league-leading 7.2 C&S 3 point attempts a game, and Lowry is shooting 28.8% on 3.1 C&S 3 point attempts a game.

There are two ways to view this:

1. The Heat are doomed because now they have inefficient, high-volume shooting around two non-shooting stars and that will lead to an offensive implosion come playoff time.

OR

2. Math will do what math does and see Robinson and Lowry revert to their previous good-to-great 3 point shooting averages, catapulting the Heat’s 6th ranked offense into the top 3, cementing the Heat as one of few elite teams in the league.

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Tyler Herro: The Premier Shot Maker?

Tyler Herro’s breakout is without question the most important development of the Heat’s first quarter of the season. The leap to being a play-finishing jump shooter is one of the toughest leaps to make in the NBA, it is one that now all-star caliber players such as Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Jaylen Brown, CJ McCollum and Zach Lavine have all made over the last few years. While it might be an overreaction to put Herro in this category after 18 games played, it is completely reasonable to place him on this kind of trajectory.

At 21 years old, Herro is currently averaging 21.8 PPG on 45/40/87 splits. While the raw statistics are great, the crux of Herro’s “leap” is the ability to create and make his shots at an incredibly high clip. Herro has progressively increased his % of unassisted shots each year of his career, starting at 39.3% in 19-20’, 44.6% in 20-21’ and now 59.6% in 21-22’.

Herro won’t dazzle by breaking a defender down off the dribble in isolation situations (6th percentile in Isolation) but he doesn’t particularly need to as he’s capable of rising up over a tough shot contest and getting to his spots without any wasted movement. The hardest shot to defend in all of basketball, the Pull-Up jumper, is one shot that the premier “scorers” in the league have in common.

Of the 13 players who take 9 or more Pull-Up jumpers a game, Tyler Herro has the 4th highest effective FG%, which weighs 3-point shots as 1.5 times more valuable than 2-point shots. Below is a bar chart to contextualize Herro’s leap as a pull-up shooter, and the players this puts him “in the conversation” with:

While Pull-Up shooting isn’t the only thing that Herro has going for him this season, this development of a reliable “tough shot maker” in the half court will go a long way towards the Heat hitting their ceiling as a team. The primary shot creator was a large question mark following the round one sweep against the Milwaukee Bucks, with Herro playing at this level, that question mark is slowly turning into one of the strengths of this Heat team.

Rebounding: Looks like an issue but is actually a strength?

Defensive possessions aren’t finished until the defense gets the rebound. An offensive possession isn’t finished until the defense gets the rebound. On paper, the Heat should be a very poor rebounding team, they often run lineups with Bam Adebayo (6’9) as their tallest player and starting lineup with an average height of 6’5.5. Despite the size disadvantage, the Heat have all the numbers of an elite rebounding team. The Heat are currently tied for 1st with the Utah Jazz at 53.1% total REB%, are 2nd in DREB% at 75.4% and are 6th in OREB% at 29.5%. A sizable upgrade from the Heat’s 22nd ranked rebounding last season. While some of the Heat’s flaws may come to light as the season goes on, finding a strength in such a consistent aspect of the game will help raise the floor of this team on a game-to-game basis.

The formula for the Heat should be to win the rebounding battle every night, and if the beginning of the season is any indicator, that formula correlates directly to winning. The Heat are 12-2 in games where they win the rebounding battle, with both losses being decided by 3 points.

While rebounds aren’t the first thing most point to on the box score after a win or a loss, it’s a way for the Heat to win around the margins, which is crucial for a team that is not as physically or offensively gifted as most others around the league.

Rim Pressure: Where does it come from?

The Miami Heat have turned into a jump shooting team this season, primarily due to the personnel on the roster. Jimmy Butler (13.3 Drives/G) is one of the NBA’s best at getting to the rim, Tyler Herro (10.4 Drives/G) is finding some downhill juice primarily from attacking switches on to Bigs and by playing with pace in pick and roll, outside of that, it’s anybody’s guess as to who on the Heat will be getting themselves to the rim. The easy finger to point is at Kyle Lowry, who started the season being virtually allergic to the rim, but has ramped up his rim pressure recently and become the Heat’s 3rd cog in the rim pressure attack at 7.9 drives/G over the last 8 games. Even with this incremental improvement, the Heat rank 29th in drives (36.1) and 28th in Restricted Area attempts (21.4) on the season.

While rim pressure isn’t the end-all be-all for this offense, having an added layer to the offense could make the offense harder to guard, forcing more rotations and likely resulting in either an open shot, a higher percentage attempt or free throws.

 

As shown in the graph above, there is less emphasis on rim pressure when the Heat lose games. Some of this is due to opposing switching schemes and the Heat not really having anyone who provides an advantage against a team with multiple strong, rangy, athletic, and switchable defenders (ala Boston Celtics); however, the majority of this is simply the Heat taking their foot off the gas pedal and deciding to turn a game into a shootout as opposed to the peak level of basketball they know they are capable of.

Outside of Tyler Herro and PJ Tucker, this team has been objectively bad at shooting the basketball, yet they continue to rely on shooting the ball down the stretch of games rather than imposing their will near the rim. This is both a mentality and a personnel issue which cannot be solved unless: Adebayo is able to get comfortable taking larger and slower or smaller and weaker defenders to the cup more often, or Victor Oladipo comes back and is able to provide some facsimile of his 13.5 drives a game that he gave the Houston Rockets in his 20 games with the franchise last season.

*More frequent and well-timed off-ball cuts from Herro, Lowry, Robinson, Martin and others could also be an in-house fix.

Of all the concerns that this team may have, rim pressure is the one that might be the hardest to fix. While Oladipo should be a welcome boost that all of Heat Nation is rooting for, it would not be wise to rely upon someone, who has played in 52 games since January 2019, to solve arguably the one fatal flaw with the offense.

 

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Road to the Orange Bowl: The College Football Rankings finally get interesting

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It took a while but the College Football Playoff committee finally put Cincinnati among the final four in their latest rankings.

All it took was Oregon losing big to Utah and falling out of the top ten to make that happen. The Bearcats rode their reputation built last year and their victory over No. 6 Notre Dame this year the No. 2 spot in the AP poll prior to the committee beginning their official ranking and knocking them and the rest of the American Athletic Conference down a peg.

The Bearcats have two more games against East Carolina and the inevitable matchup with Houston for the AAC title. At this point for Cincinnati, it’s a matter of, “don’t mess this up and you’re in.”

Both Cincinnati and Houston are undefeated in conference play and will be joining the Big 12 next year. The recent rankings should worry Cincinnati about the future, considering that the Bearcats are joining a conference that has been deemed irrelevant by the committee despite three teams in the top 10 and the prospect of back-to-back Bedlam deciding the conference title.

Cincinnati potentially making the playoffs is a long time coming. Since the turn of the 21st century, all of those sympathetic of the Group of Five conferences wanted was a fair opportunity. If there was a team like Boise State in the mid to late 2000’s, Cincinnati in 2009 or even Central Florida (another future Big 12 member) in 2017 that have been dominate and perfect entering bowl season, they deserve a chance to prove themselves and play for the ultimate prize.

However, the college football system, which has long been separated from the NCAA structure, starts every season automatically disqualifying half of the country. From the BCS computers to the roundtable of Stugotz that make up the CFP committee, it seemed like there was always this glass ceiling for those teams.

Had UCF been given a chance to play in the playoff in 2018 instead of an Alabama team that didn’t even play for the SEC title, maybe the Knights wouldn’t felt the need to rebel and thumb their nose at the dismissing system and declare themselves national champions by going undefeated and beating the team that beat Alabama.

Intriguing matchups

The matchups this week and next week are as interesting as ever. Finally, Ohio State vs. Michigan with high stakes. Loser loses out of a chance at the Big Ten title game and the playoff. The Iron Bowl at Auburn, which usually spells trouble for an Alabama team that can’t afford another loss. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State face off in Bedlam with Big 12 title implications and this time, the Cowboys are the higher ranked team.

And of course, Miami with a chance to finish the season with a winning conference record when the Hurricanes face a Duke team that is winless in the ACC.

And don’t forget Florida Atlantic, losers of three straight, battling Middle Tennessee with bowl eligibility on the line. The last time the Owls didn’t make a bowl game was in 2018, when they were a three-point loss against Charlotte away from accomplishing the goal.

And most importantly, FIU goes to Southern Miss with one more shot at a C-USA win and a chance to send Butch Davis off right.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Eyes on Adam Silver after LeBron, Stewart Scrap

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The NBA needs to show it still has some balls. LeBron James lost his self-control Sunday night in Detroit and delivered one of the most vicious blows seen on an NBA court since Metta Sandiford-Artest, formerly Ron, elbowed James Harden over nine years ago. 

 

Isaiah Stewart, a 20-year-old sophomore in the league, was the recipient of James’ brutality.  The strike left a gash above Stewart’s right eye and an understandable appetite to settle the score.  

 

Stewart was physically hurt by a man large and strong enough to leave a regular person comatose had they been the victim. 

 

When it happened, LA was down 12 points with over nine minutes left in the third quarter.  James and Stewart were battling for positioning as Jerami Grant attempted his second free throw.  Then bang.

 

James turned around, appearing instantly remorseful, but it was too late.  Stewart saw red and rushed after the Lakers star three times, unable to get close enough.

 

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It was one of the rare instances in modern NBA times in which a player wanted to throw hands.  James was fortunate the court was crowded with players and coaches from both teams, as well as refs and police, in between him and the young man he assaulted. 

 

What could have happened if James connected a few inches to the side and hit Stewart’s temple?  Possibly, a concussion or, even worse, permanent brain damage.  Hopefully, it’s something commissioner Adam Silver factors into his disciplinary ruling.

 

Adam Silver, commissioner of the NBA

 

James deserves all of the blame because he was cruel.   There is no chance this is news if he doesn’t forget how to act like a professional by attacking someone 16 years younger than him.  Stewart repeatedly going after James did not look good either.  But it isn’t fair to him for the league to expect him to compose himself when such a massive man could have broken his face.

 

Anger in such circumstances is a perfectly reasonable reaction.  Stewart should not get suspended for more than a game, and it would look odd if he does.  On Nov. 10, the NBA gave a slap on the wrist to MVP Nikola Jokic, suspending him a game for elbowing Markieff Morris in the back.  

 

 

James should get a minimum of five games, but Silver barely held Jokic accountable with his penalty.  It made the league look soft on disciplining those with status.  The same mistake should not be made twice in less than two weeks.

 

It was a sad look for the NBA.  The Pistons public address announcer had to tell fans not to approach the floor.  It was a sour reminder of Malice at the Palace, despite not getting close to the level of destruction that was caused 17 years ago.

Tua Tagovailoa celebrates after the Miami Dolphins defeated the New York Jets 24-17.

Pressure Point: Wins can’t mask limitations of Dolphins offense

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If the Miami Dolphins’ offense was dealt in a card game and I could keep or discard any of the cards, I’d hold on to three.

That would be Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki and Tua Tagovailoa. I’d take my chances on being able to draw better replacements for the rest.

Three consecutive wins, including 24-17 over the lowly (2-8) New York Jets on Sunday, didn’t change what has been evident all season about the limitations of Miami’s offense.

Sure, give the o-line credit for not allowing a sack against the Jets. And for opening some holes on the clock-killing drive in the final minutes.

Yes, a team averaging a league-worst 73.6 yards a game rushing coming into Sunday did net 115 yards (albeit on 3.5 yards a carry).

It doesn’t impress me much coming against a defense that was allowing 32.9 points a game, by far the worst in the league.

The win did keep alive the pipe dream that the Dolphins can somehow turn a 1-7 start to playoff potential. That .500 is a realistic possibility in the next few weeks is more a reflection of the next three weaklings on the schedule than any major strides made by the offense.

The defense has gotten its act together lately. The offense remains highly flawed, and that was on display again Sunday.

Long TD a rarity

The lack of any semblance of a power running game is a major handicap. Consequently, in short-yardage situations the Dolphins resort to trickery and the tedious Wildcat, which rarely delivers.

The passing game is almost exclusively underneath the coverage because the line can’t be counted on to hold off the rush to allow receivers to get deeper.

The exception was when Tagovailoa dodged pressure and took advantage of a Jets busted coverage for a mighty heave to Mack Hollins. The 65-yard touchdown pass was the longest of Tua’s career.

A TV camera captured the surprise on the face of co-offensive coordinator George Godsey in the press box.

Aside from that play, the Dolphins averaged 8 yards on their other 26 completions.

Keep in mind, the Jets started four rookies in the secondary. Last week Buffalo’s Josh Allen went deep on them all day in a 45-17 romp, completing 6 of 8 throws longer than 20 yards. The Bills had two receivers with more than 100 yards and five averaged more than 10 yards a catch.

On Sunday, Miami’s leading receiver Waddle (who has 4.2 speed) had eight catches but only 65 net yards. The Jets’ Elijah Moore had eight receptions for 141 yards.

Tua has ups, downs

The Dolphins are surviving on the short-passing game and they were very efficient with it Sunday.

Tagovailoa followed up his good work in the win over the Ravens by completing 27 of 33 (82 percent) for 273 yards, two touchdowns with one interception and a 108.7 rating.

Those numbers merit more respect than Tua will receive for his performance.

It was another positive step for the second-year quarterback, but it won’t quiet his critics and win over his detractors.

One reason is that Tua’s misplays tend to be glaring. Latest example, after directing a masterful scripted opening touchdown drive, he made a cringe-worthy overthrow for an interception that led to a Jets touchdown.

The bigger reason is that a team so long in quest of a franchise quarterback so badly wanted a special talent. Tua hasn’t shown to possess that skill level in comparison to the elite quarterbacks in the league.

Impressive in second half

Aside from the pick, Tua was very good at what he does well, especially in the second half when he threw both touchdown passes and led Miami to 17 points.

On the decisive touchdown drive, he was 8 for 8 for 68 yards, capped by a pinpoint 5-yard TD toss to Myles Gaskin while under pressure on third-and-goal.

His best throw of the day was the earlier third-and-7 conversion to Waddle just beyond the sticks to keep that drive alive.

Later, Tagovailoa made the sort of play that drives his critics nuts, holding the ball too long for a sack that would have taken the Dolphins out of field goal range. A questionable defensive holding call down field on the play bailed him out and Dolphins went on to get the field goal to seal the win.

Scrutiny of Tua will continue, most notably by Dolphins officials who have six more games to decide whether to keep their trust in him or seek an alternative in the offseason, be it controversial Deshaun Watson or someone else.

A surprising ray of playoff hope

The best Tua can do is keep getting the most out of a limited offense and chalking up Dubs in playoff pursuit.

Strange as it feels to say that after the dreadful start, there isn’t an unwinnable game the rest of the way, including the Patriots in the finale at home.

Four of the remaining games are a Hard Rock Stadium. The next four opponents — Panthers, Giants, Jets (again) and Saints — are a combined 15-25.
All they have to do is keep bucking long odds behind an offense of Tua, Waddle, Gesicki and a fistful of potential discards.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

 

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Miami Hurricanes

Miami Hurricanes Free to Dream As Last Vestiges of Lethargy Wash Away

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Blake James walked off the field in Tallahassee, the victim of his own hubris, the physical manifestation of the University of Miami’s collective lack of ambition.

The Hurricanes’ original sin was the overreaction to the Nevin Shapiro scandal. That reporting and the subsequent uninformed, hysterical media coverage resulted in a series of panicky, ill-advised moves that set the tone for a decade of futility.

The program had gone through several years of struggle at that time (following the 2010 season), so it did not mark the point where the school stopped winning.

What the scandal did, instead, was of far greater consequence, setting in course a series of events that still haunt this school today.

That moment was the moment when Miami stopped believing in the Dream of Miami. 

This was a program that was built on hubris, bravado, and unwavering belief in self combined with talent and an unquenchable thirst for excellence.

In 2010, the Miami Hurricanes went 7-5, losing the final game to South Florida in overtime. Randy Shannon was dismissed. 7-5 is fine at some schools, but this is Miami, and at Miami you win championships.

That offseason, the Shapiro Scandal happened.

In 2011, Miami finished 6-6. In the final game of the season, as the Hurricanes were getting throttled at home by a (at the time 3-8) 4-8 Boston College team, they announced a contract extension for Al Golden, adding on to an existing contract that cumulatively kept him employed until February 2021.

In one year, the standard went from 7-5 being fireable to 6-6 being extension worthy. From there, it was a downward slope into the abyss.

That was the shift, away from a relentless pursuit of winning, and toward status quo maintenance.

How does someone unqualified become Athletic Director?

How did the person in charge of ticket sales all of a sudden find himself running the Athletic Department?

Simple. By 2013, the Goldenization of Miami Athletics was complete. The focus had shifted from winning to excuse making, from championship results to mediocrity.

Remember the cloud? What exactly was that again? The school was so high on their own supply that when Miami was essentially cleared of wrongdoing with only minor penalties as a result of the Shapiro scandal, Golden hilariously claimed, with full support of the administration, that the week in which they were cleared was so challenging that they almost lost to a poor Wake Forest team.

Enter Blake James.

After Shawn Eichorst left for Nebraska, James was chosen to be Interim Athletic Director, satisfying the main criteria of being the first person Donna Shalala saw when she walked into the Hecht Athletic Center. And it was that decision that would lead to nearly a decade of half-baked, cynical, expenditure cutting moves that saw Miami languish as one of the worst athletic programs in the ACC. 

Blake James was not a likely choice to lead an athletic department, but he was a convenient vehicle for what Miami’s administrators new priorities were. Manny Diaz famously started calling the program “The New Miami” but in reality “The New Miami” started with the hiring of Blake James.

His hiring was the shift away from an athletic department and towards a marketing scheme, intent on convincing the public at-large that winning was priority one while behind-the-scenes the dedication was to cost control. The decision was made that on balance, rather than the risk spending big and perhaps still not winning big, it was preferable to run things on the cheap, knowing that doing so would all but eliminate the possibility of winning.  

James was the willing face of this strategy, the alleged great fundraiser who never seemed to have the ability or will to spend the money he was purportedly so brilliant at raising. He was so committed to perpetuating this status quo fraud on the South Florida community that he tried to keep Al Golden employed after Clemson’s 58-0 devastation of Golden’s Hurricanes, only to be forced to backtrack 24 hours later. That was a bridge too far. Not the idea that he would keep Al Golden forever, which was his desire. But he couldn’t sell that concept publicly and keep the delusion going, so Golden went.

 

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The Final, Inescapable Blunder

We can point to the absurdity of the Manny Diaz hire as the final, massive blunder that eventually lead to Blake James’ downfall, but ironically, it was the one thing he “did” right that set those wheels in motion.

Georgia’s firing of Mark Richt meant there was a well-qualified, alum of the school that was willing to take the job. And with someone like Richt at the helm, the administration’s lack of ambition became a footnote. 

When Miami needed money for the Indoor Practice Facility, Richt donated a million dollars from his own salary. He did not need the money having made so much at Georgia. And on the field, in 3 seasons, he had the Canes only 10-win season since 2003 and their only bowl win since 2006. While his final season wasn’t the best, he laid a foundation upon which a competent coach would have expanded the program.

And when Richt retired at the end of the 2018 season, he gave his Alma Mater one last gift. He did not take the money he was contractually entitled to.

So here was Blake James, with a bankroll, and a program that was overall healthy. He could have hired anyone. So what does someone who is in a station well above his ability, handed an opportunity that should never have come his way, do when presented with this gift?

He pays it forward, of course. Without conducting a head coaching search, James ran to Manny Diaz, and in 6 hours, Diaz was Miami’s head coach, and along with James, cut a fitting pair of unqualified, inexplicably hired people doubling down on Miami’s plan to maintain their low cost, mediocre approach. 

It’s hard to know why James hired Diaz.

Was it because he is that poor an evaluator of coaches that he didn’t realize Diaz did not have the demeanor, experience, or disposition to take on the monumental task of building upon Richt’s Foundation?

Was it because he was cheaper than a more qualified coach would have been?

Was it because he knew Diaz was someone that would not rock the boat?

Surely it wasn’t because Diaz laid out a firm, convincing vision for how he planned to return the program to a nationally competitive level, since the hiring process was so rushed that there was no time for that.

Whatever the reason, it was the final act of incompetence for Blake James. Sometimes, occasionally, unqualified people can sustain and even thrive by employing inside-the-box thinking. Best practices and standards developed over time by trailblazers can be borrowed by followers, much like the difference between a chef and a cook, with the chef inventing the recipe, and innovating, and the cook following the recipe. 

The market had spoken, the box so to speak. Manny Diaz’s level was Temple. Had James stayed inside-the-box and just hired any coach that a major program would have hired, he would probably still be employed despite his shortcoming.

But small thinking leads to small decisions, and he zigged when everyone else would have zagged, choosing to pay a buyout to bring back Miami’s unqualified, former defensive coordinator. Thinking outside the box is for qualified people, and James needed the box. 

At that point, the clock was ticking because in addition to a disastrous hire, Richt had raised the bar. There was no longer any patience for prolonged mediocrity.

 

The Dam Bursts

Finally, after years of intentional indifference, the house of cards collapsed this week.

A loss to the worst Florida State team anyone can remember was the symbolic end, but the die had been cast long before that. This was an athletic program, far beyond football, that was not only struggling but was aimless.

Miami’s athletics had no soul. It was just there, existing, with no goals, no ambition. A car stuck in neutral, trying to convince us that they were in 6th gear, one time actually using the slogan “Full Speed Ahead.”

And as the life was slowly squeezed out of Hecht, it was suicide, not murder. It wasn’t a scandal, it wasn’t the pandemic, it wasn’t external forces plaguing the school, it was an intentional strategy designed to spend as little money as possible to make the mendacious slogans viable, to traffic in hope. 

In Miami, we’re familiar with scams, and this one finally came to end on Monday.

Jimmy Johnson once said, “Treat a person as he is, and he will remain as he is. Treat a person as if he were where he could be and should be, and he will become what he could be and should be.”

After a decade of small-time thinking, Miami is finally choosing to break status quo, to not settle for what is, but to focus on what could and should be. 

And for a dejected, dormant, yet still prideful community, it was a change a long time coming.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports and generally covers the Miami Hurricanes. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

Tyler Herro’s 3rd Year Leap Is Real and Its Spectacular

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More often than not players drafted in the late lottery don’t amount to as much as their top 10 counterparts. Over the past decade; there have been numerous examples to the contrary with guys like Devin Booker, Giannis Antetonkounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, and Bam Adebayo. They do get the benefit of less pressure to be great right away. The public will consider their development to take quite a bit longer than a player selected in the top 5. And most of this was true for the guys listed above. However, Tyler Herro wasn’t gifted that same leeway after 2 seasons.

Herro made a big splash in his first season that not many expected. Heat fans marveled at the timely shots he’d hit for a team that was spearheaded by the addition of Jimmy Butler. You saw why the Heat saw in him took him over guys like Grant Williams, Romeo Langford, and Sekou Doumbouya.

Then came the hiatus of the season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Herro took the sudden offseason as an opportunity to add his growing platter of hoop appetizers. Heat fans witnessed as he showed new tricks in his bag. Tricks that included better finishing, simple reads in the pick-and-roll, and crafty moves around the painted area. The organization could not have asked for more but he kept delivering with a solid playoff run.

 

Despite the way the media has covered the Heat since the FInals run, it was not something atypical for Herro. His playoff numbers were very similar to his regular season and lined up with those of his follow-up season. His 37 point performance vs the Celtics has clouded the view of NBA fans to the point of blind arrogance.

The Finals run caused everyone to expect even more the following season. The weight of expectations was unfair to someone who had already shown tons of improvement in between the hiatus, which was as long as an entire offseason. The crazy part is that he still improved his raw numbers despite a very obvious down year for him. He went through lingering injuries, no offseason, and trade rumors swirling throughout the year. The organization stuck with him and knew the reps he was getting would pay off in the future.

What we’re witnessing in the 2021-22 season is the reward for that patience. A player that fans were so quick to give up just 8 months ago. But even for someone like me who was buying the Herro stock everyone was selling, what I’m seeing is shocking even me. The way the game has slowed down for Tyler and the improvements to an already beautiful jumper is second to none. The freedom and joy he’s playing with are fueling a Miami bench to being one of the best in the league.

The most noticeable improvement I’ve seen to his scoring game is how deliberate he is at getting to his spots on the floor. Herro’s body language is saying “I’m getting to the elbow off this high pick and roll and you’re giving me an open 3 or I’m dribbling at my pace and getting to the mid-range.” He rarely looks rushed or out of control, always playing at his pace.

He’s still getting better with his finishing and learning the intricacies of the floater he added early in his career. Herro has already mastered using the backboard for tough finishes against bigger defenders. Finishing through contact is still not his strong suit but you see the promise there.

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There’s more you can point at from Herro this season but really the shotmaking has plainly been nearly elite-level. He’s getting to the level where it doesn’t matter how good the defense; that shots going in. There’s been countless of times his shots leave your mouth agape as if you were The Scream painting. Herro may not have the wingspan but his size for a 2-guard will allow him to get off shots on plenty of defenders. This is why the added height on his jumper has been so crucial for his jumper.

There are so many spots where he can get even better. He’s still learning how to use the leverage of defenses playing him so high and making faster reads on doubles and hard hedges. Herro’s already shown flashes of growth in these segments. It’s a matter of when not if he’ll smooth them out. The biggest thing that’ll truly get him into the consistent All-Star caliber player will be when he masters the art of the free-throw line.

The newly added strength has helped Tyler not get pushed off his spots so much. He has also shown more willingness and ability to fight through contact at the rim. The last step is to consistently get to the line for free points, especially as an 80+ percent shooter. He’s currently at only 2.7 FTA a game. If he were to jump that to even just around 4 FTA, it would be huge for him.

Those little things are truly the last few steps to him becoming THAT guy. As someone who’s been high on Herro, even I find it hard to believe how far he’s come. At 22-4-5 on 46/39/86 splits in his third season, the best has yet to come. The Devin Booker/CJ McCollum/Zach Lavine comparisons have been there but I’m done trying to compare him like that. We should enjoy watching Tyler grow into another late lottery gem uncovered by the Heat.

A player who’s gotten better every season so far isn’t stopping now. He’s setting records for Heat bench players left and right while being amongst the league leaders in 4th quarter scoring. No one expected what we’re witnessing to happen when he was drafted 13th in 2019. Think about what he’ll look like next season and the season after that. Heat fans should feel blessed that they were able to draft someone of his caliber so late in the lottery.

Tyler will start in the not so far off future and it might unlock even more of his game. But for now, he’s their weapon of mid-range destruction off the bench. After all, patience is how we got to this point. There will be bumps along the way, shooting slumps, and random hiccups. Don’t let any of those things deter your confidence in the young shooting guard; he certainly won’t. Everyone can start thinking about the next leap, but take some time to enjoy the current one.

 

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: No Show John in Houston

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No one, at this moment, has a better NBA gig than John Wall of the Houston Rockets.  His job is so sweet the team doesn’t need him to break a sweat.  They’d prefer he mentor a group with an abysmal record when Wall himself knows little of winning at the pro level.  

 

Wall owes a debt of gratitude to James Harden, who left Houston in January, pouting and shouting, for the Brooklyn Nets.  NBA Insider Peter Vecsey explained to me last week that Harden signed off on Wall as Russell Westbrook’s replacement, but he foully elected not even to give it a chance.  

 

Next in line for some props is the operator Rich Paul, superagent of Wall and leader of Klutch Sports. The way I see it, Paul is walking all over Tilman Fertitta, the majority owner of the club.  The plan, reported back in September, was for Wall not to play as the team worked on a trade.  Even then, it was a confusing idea, given Wall only participated in 56% of last season.  Surely, suitors contemplating taking on such an extraordinary contract would probably want to see more.  

 

Thursday, ESPN reported Wall is unlikely to compete in 2022 as no other team is interested in his services at $44 million.  A buyout shouldn’t be expected either.  With that latest development, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be earning his money instead of benefitting from a no-show job.

 

Wall was good enough in 2021 to put up over 20 points per game after not playing for nearly two years, recovering from injuries. Almost a month into their campaign, the Rockets have one win, 13 losses and are on a 12-game losing streak.   It’s ludicrous to assume that Wall, who has received 5 All-Star nods in the past and still has game, can’t help this team.  

 

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The Rockets are at the beginning of a rebuilding project, and to their credit, Houston has nice prospects to build around.  Yet, the higher-ups are not helping this group as they should.  The average age of H-Town’s starting lineup is 24 years old.  It’s hard to win with young players in a man’s league when few veterans have a spot in the rotation.

 

If this soft tank job keeps up, the Rockets will match their 20-game losing streak of last season by Dec. 3.  Only 13 teams in NBA history have dropped 20 in a row, per The Athletic.  Houston might do it twice in two seasons, all for favorable positioning in the lottery.  

 

Perpetual losing is a tone-setter that poisons the minds of all those involved.  What kind of example is it for the young players on the Rockets when someone perfectly healthy doesn’t want to help them win?

 

Coach Stephen Silas paid his dues nearly 19 years as an assistant and scout to have an opportunity as he has now.  It isn’t fair to him that the organization and Paul have determined which players he can use.  

 

Wall committed to an extension as a member of the Washington Wizards in July 2017.  He didn’t sign up to play for the Rockets, but he should kick rocks.  Getting traded to where you don’t want to go is a part of the business.  This reluctance to play highlights his entitled behavior that will probably scare off those he is looking to woo from afar.

 

There’s no honor in tanking.  All the Rockets’ top brass are doing is putting peoples jobs in jeopardy.  

With Butch Davis departing, is it time for FIU to drop football?

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It’s one thing for a football coach to move on from a program that has fallen off with little sign of turning around.

It’s another thing to learn the extent of how much of a failing program it really is.

Butch Davis told Brett McMurphy of The Action Network that he will be out as FIU coach once his contract expires on Dec. 15. He also went scorched earth on just how little support the school gave the program throughout his tenure, even to the point of “sabotage.”

The shoulder pads and uniforms were a decade old. The coaching staff was not allowed to go on the road recruiting the past two years because of financial reasons and the COVID-19 pandemic. The school even posted the coaching job opening online five games into the season.

“This year has been a nightmare,” Davis told The Action Network. “You can imagine the players’ reaction when a head coach’s job was posted online. The administration has been sabotaging the program. Their decision to post the job has resulted in a major negative impact on the football program and our ability to recruit and retain players.”

Davis is as good as it gets for FIU, a school forever in the shadow of the University of Miami. When he arrived in 2017 to replace Ron Turner, the Panthers immediately started winning. FIU went to three straight bowl games for the first time in school history and even defeated the Hurricanes at the site of the old Orange Bowl in 2019.

The only other coach to succeed in FIU’s 20-year history is Mario Cristobal, who oversaw the Panthers’ only conference championship in 2010. With Davis instantly bringing success to the program but leaving after a disastrous season that saw 21 of 85 scholarship players either suffer season-ending injuries or leave the team for various reasons, is there a reason for the program to keep going any further?

This is nothing like Sports Illustrated suggesting the Miami Hurricanes shut down football for moral reasons or other nonsense of that nature. Questioning whether or not FIU football should close up shop is about a lack of resources, a lack of progress and quite possibly a lack of conference.

“The issues that we have, there’s no fix for,” Davis said during his postgame press conference following the Old Dominion loss in Nov. 6, “we’re playing 15-18 kids who shouldn’t even be suiting up.”

No quite similar to the Idaho situation

The Idaho Vandals joined the FBS in 1996 and then left after the 2017 season. Throughout their 20-year tenure in the highest level of college football, the best the Vandals could do was three bowl games, one for each decade, all of which were played in Boise. The Vandals were at least victorious in each bowl game in high scoring fashion.

The Vandals returned to the FCS to join the rest of their sports in the Big Sky Conference for lower costs and, quite frankly, similar reachable rewards. Idaho would never reach the College Football Playoff, but the FCS Playoffs are attainable with a good team.

Unlike Idaho, FIU doesn’t have a FCS conference to run back to. The Panthers started as an independent in the FCS ranks but only with the intention of transitioning to the FBS.

The Vandals play both their football and basketball games at the uniquely quirky Kibbie Dome, which seats 16,000.

FIU plays in a stadium that currently holds over 20,000 and has only seen two games in which attendance numbers reached that high, both during the 2011 season. The most recent game of high attendance came in 2016, where 18,524 came to see UCF beat FIU 53-14. The only home game Davis coached with a sellout crowd was in 2019 against Miami in LoanDepot Park, and it was mostly Miami fans.

Conference issues

When Idaho was in the FBS, two of three conferences the Vandals once called home dropped football. The Big West Conference discontinued football following the 2000 season and the WAC doing so in 2012 once everyone but Idaho and New Mexico State left the conference.

Conference-USA, FIU’s current conference, is in danger of a similar fate. In the recent realignment period, the C-USA went from 14 members to just five at one point. Nine schools, including FIU’s arch rival Florida Atlantic, have left for either the American Athletic Conference or the Sun Belt Conference.

The C-USA added independents New Mexico State and Liberty, as well as FCS powerhouses Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State to go with FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, UTEP and Western Kentucky and be over the required number (8) for a conference to remain linked to College Football Playoff money distribution. Even that number isn’t completely stable, as Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky once flirted with the chance at joining the MAC.

That alignment leaves FIU exclusively traveling west to different time zones to play conference opponents in the midwest and southwest. If the coaching staff had to save money by not recruiting on the road, how much of an expenditure will it be for regularly long travel?

Losing the South Florida arms race

When FIU embarked on its football journey, the Panthers weren’t going at it alone. Howard Schnellenberger started FAU’s program from the ground up in 2001 and coached the Owls until 2011. By that time, the Owls went from playing at a park in Ft. Lauderdale to their own 30k-seat stadium, which opened in Schnellenberger’s final season.

Both FAU and FIU were rivals in the same conference but with the Owls moving up to the AAC and establishing a history of hiring multiple high-profile head coaches and playing in a bigger, bowl worthy stadium for a decade, the rivalry seems played out.

The Owls haven’t lost to the Panthers since 2016, when Bachelorette runner-up Tyler Cameron lined up at tight end. It is becoming abundantly clear that the two programs are no longer equals and FIU lost the arms race.

Is the juice worth the squeeze?

FIU beating Miami in 2019 is as good as it gets for the program, which has played in five bowl games only won twice, both against Toledo. The Panthers caught lightning in a bottle but with a new coach coming in with the task of starting from below ground zero, reaching that high again seems unlikely.

It seemed logical to start a football program at the turn of the 21st century in a region filled to the brim with talent. 20 years in, with hand-me-down equipment, mass departures, a new-look conference that resembles an island of misfits and not at all geographically ideal, and lack of support from both attendance and the administration, it may make more sense to cut the program and reward the soccer program with the stadium.

Duncan Robinson: Patience or Panic?

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Three weeks into the Heat season, it has become impossible to ignore the noise surrounding Duncan Robinson’s shooting slump.  The topic has become more divisive to Heat Twitter – with some ready to promote Tyler Herro to the starting lineup and others patiently waiting for the slump to vanish.  I decided to look back at NBA history and attempt to identify parallels between Duncan and other three point specialists.  I also analyzed the shot profile from the past three seasons to see how Duncan’s role has shifted on this new Heat roster and how that could be playing into his early struggles.  Finally, I’ll jump into some adjustments that we could see to get Duncan back on track.

 

HISTORICAL PRECEDENT

 

When looking historically for a player comparison for Duncan Robinson, it’s almost unprecedented to find a player used so strongly as a three-point specialist.  Obviously the game has changed, and while the NBA added the three-point line in 1979, the volume of shots changed drastically in the past decade.  

 

After 11 games, 89.1% of Duncan’s field goal attempts come from behind the arc.  While that is clearly still a small sample size, his past seasons of 85.5% in 2020-2021, and a league-high 88.2% in 2019-2020 show the role he is designated within our offense.  This isn’t happening by accident, it’s by design.

 

It’s hard to blame Erik Spoelstra for this usage.  Duncan holds a top 20 career percentage (41.5%) in NBA history.  He shot 42.7% on over 1200 attempts during the past two seasons.  That is why the coaches, his teammates, and opponents continue to respect his outside shot despite early struggles.

 

Duncan is among 49 players in NBA history with above a 40% career three-point percentage.  In that group, only 18 players have attempted more three-point field goals than two-point field goals – and as expected, most of these came over the past decade.  Duncan leads that group with an astounding 6.5 three-point attempts to every two-point attempt.  The only other players above a 2:1 ratio?  Steve Novak 3.5 to 1, and Davis Bertans 3.4 to 1.  

 

While attempts tell one story, the most important thing is making those shots.  As we’ve seen many times, if Duncan isn’t hitting threes, what does he contribute offensively?  Currently this season, 85% of Duncan’s points came from behind the arc – which is actually third in the league behind Danny Green (90.5%) and Wayne Ellington (87.1%).  For reference, in the past two seasons, three pointers were responsible for 79.6% of Duncan’s points in 2020-2021 and 82.4% of his points in 2019-2020.  Not surprising, he was 2nd to only Danny Green (80.3%) last season, and edged out Wayne Ellington (82.0%) in 2019-2020.  

 

Over the Erik Spoelstra era, Duncan is not the first Heat player with a heavy ratio of threes.  Looking at single-season data, the Heat have had players such as Shane Battier, Mike Miller, James Jones, Wayne Ellington, Jae Crowder, Bill Walker, Luke Babbitt, and Yakhouba Diawara with better than 3:1 ratios.  (Bonus points if you anticipated Bill Walker, Luke Babbitt, or Yakhouba Diawara to be mentioned in this article)

 

With that precedent, clearly Spoelstra is comfortable with Duncan’s utilization.  And while I don’t think anyone would argue adding counters to his game is a bad thing, the Heat are comfortable showcasing the current version of Duncan Robinson.  But with the early season struggles, the elephant in the room is getting harder to ignore – what is wrong with Duncan this season?

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SHIFTING SHOT PROFILE

 

After diving down the rabbit hole of Second Spectrum data, I’ve tried to point out a few areas that stand out after 11 games.  I will make it clear that 11 games is a way too small sample size when compared to two full seasons, so remember that we are still early in the season!

 

With Jimmy, Bam, and the addition of Kyle Lowry, and the growth of Tyler Herro, there is no surprise that Duncan’s opportunities for catch and shoot threes are plentiful.  With those types of attempts up nearly one per game, his effectiveness has plummeted to a putrid 30.0% on those shots.  For comparison, he averaged 43% on those shots over the past two seasons.  He’s shooting significantly higher (50.0%) on one-dribble threes but on nearly six less attempts per game.  I’ll touch on the dribble later, but I can’t possibly buy into the idea that Duncan is better off the dribble.  In most cases, it will lead to a more contested shot because it allows the defender(s) to recover.  

 

The attention drawn by those scorers also allows Duncan to find wide open shots despite the attention that all defenses throw at him.  Unfortunately for the Heat, open shots haven’t translated into made baskets.  Duncan is shooting 31.0% on 3.8 open three-point attempts (closest defender 4-6 feet away), compared to 40.7% last season and 47.7% the previous season on 3.4 attempts.  

 

It’s not surprising that contested shots would have a lower field goal percentage, but the bar is high for a shooter like Duncan Robinson.  Over the past two seasons, Duncan has shot 41% (19-20) and 37% (20-21) on tightly contested three pointers where the defender is 2-4 feet away.  This season, Duncan is shooting 29.7% on those attempts.  Quite simply, Duncan has to be better in order to be considered one of the best shooters in the league.  

 

Finally, one of the intangible powers that is connected to Duncan is the concept of “gravity”.  With such an elite shooter, he draws the attention of defenses towards him, and thus allows his teammates to operate in more space away from him.  Part of that gravity is due to the elite shot making ability he has from outside the arc, but it is also due to the constant movement that Duncan brings to the Heat offense.  In past year’s, defending Duncan meant the challenge of constantly chasing him off pin downs, floppy actions, and DHOs.  This season however, the distance he’s traveling per game is down nearly 12%.  

 

What does that mean?  Being more of a standstill shooter is still a difficult proposition for defenders – staying even a step closer to Duncan makes help on drives more difficult, but it is certainly easier than chasing him around screens.  While not making too much of body language, Duncan cannot allow performance to impact effort.  His constant movement fatigues his defender and will continue to draw the attention of all five defenders on the floor.  Until teams completely disregard Duncan as a non-threat, he can impact defenses with his movement.

 

ADJUSTMENTS

 

So what is the counter?  We had belief after this offseason that Duncan was adding to his game and anticipated something like a shot fake into a 1-2 dribble pull-up.  With defenders closing hard to take away the arc, it seemed like a natural progression to allow Duncan to contribute inside the arc.  After 11 games, Duncan has attempted eleven shots inside the lane and one mid-range jump shot.  The one mid-range jump shot made me check multiple websites to verify because it seems almost unfathomable.  

 

Over the past two seasons, he only attempted 35 of these mid-range shots and was largely ineffective.  I trust that this was part of Duncan’s offseason training because he said it himself on The Long Shot podcast.  How is it possible that after 11 games, he has just one attempt in the mid-range?  

 

Could it be not so much what type of shot he is getting, or where those shots are coming from, but when those shots are happening?  Looking at last season’s data, Duncan’s three-point field goal percentage drops the deeper you get into the shot clock.  Why?

 

When Duncan is getting opportunities very early in the shot clock (18 seconds or earlier), you’d expect to see him running to the wing or the corner and getting hit ahead passes in transition.  Last season, Duncan shot 43.9% on just over 1 attempt per game.  The frequency of these attempts are understandably low, but it more importantly the threat forces the defense to defend sideline-to-sideline and baseline-to-baseline and opens up the middle of the floor for others to attack. That’s the base layer for any transition attack.

 

Much as been argued about the use of DHO but when utilized early in the offense as part of their secondary break, it allows an opportunity for Duncan to get loose (41.7% on attempts between :15-:18 on the shot clock) but also still provides enough time for the ball to switch sides of the floor and get to the next best action.  While some point that the Heat are “trying to get Duncan going” with the early DHO, it’s just part of layering actions together and much less about force feeding Duncan Robinson.

 

As the shot clock gets under seven seconds, it becomes problematic for Duncan to touch the ball.  His three point shooting percentage is sub-38% in these situations over the past season and even worse this year.  If he is not getting a catch and shoot opportunity, the odds of a successful possession drop significantly.  For all Duncan is great at, he’s not a great creator with the dribble or the pass.  It often leads to a poor shot, turnover, or shot clock violation.  

 

CONCLUSION

 

As mentioned before, Duncan’s three point ratio is almost unmatched in league history.  He’s a unique and very talented shooter, but I believe diversification needs to occur to balance nights when the outside shot isn’t falling.  Instead of a 6:1 ratio, Duncan needs to trend more towards the ratios of historical comparisons like Danny Green (1.8), Kyle Korver (1.6), Joe Harris (1.3), and JJ Redick (1.1).  I’d be much more comfortable with a ratio near 3:1 than his current pace.  

 

Although he’s surprisingly fairly effective finishing inside the restricted area, the focus should be on adding mid-range counters.  The problem is that growth occurs in the offseason not during the season.  So I wouldn’t expect to see drastic changes from Duncan’s shot profile anytime soon.  

 

The Heat should continue to utilize him early in their secondary break, and then allow the offense to flow into the next best action.  This doesn’t mean that Duncan needs to be part of every initial action, but he cannot be effective if utilized as a standstill shooter.  

That being said, I’m also a strong believer that the 1200+ shot sample size from two full seasons holds more value than less than 100 shots in the first 11 games.  While it appears to have become a mental struggle, he won’t be the first or last shooter to enter a slump, and so the most important signal for Heat fans is that they continue to create good shots opportunities for him to take and turn around this slow start.