All eyes will be on Tua, but will his lock on Mike Gesicki this season?
Entering a crucial fourth year, Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki looks to take the leap into the discussion as one of the game’s best.
So what will it take to get there?
In order to gain some perspective, a comparison to the best current NFL tight ends seemed like a nice place to start
Travis Kelce and now Darren Waller have emerged as the top two tight ends, with George Kittle still right there after an abbreviated season due to injury.
What Waller and Kelce have in common is an enormous target share, as both posted nearly identical numbers.
Waller led all NFL tight ends with 146 targets in 2020, with Kelce just behind him at 145.
The next highest tight end targeted was Logan Thomas with 110, while just two others broke 100 targets -Evan Engram (109) and T.J Hockenson (101).
Targets are just one part of the equation, what you do with them matters.
Kelce and Waller both hauled in over 72% of their targets in 2020, while Gesicki caught slightly over 62% of his.
Many factors contribute to this, whether it be different quarterbacks throughout the year or execution in other areas.
Nonetheless, there is plenty of room for improvement.
Mike Gesicki in 6 games with Tua (no Fitz coming in)
Tgts 38 Rec 25 Yards 290 TDs 3
Projections for a 17 game pace:
Tgts 107 Rec 70 Yards 821 TDs 8
Yes there are new weapons but Gesicki is talented enough to do this! Don’t Sleep on him! #FantasyFootball
— Steven “Coach” Pintado (@CoachStevenP) July 14, 2021
Let’s run some numbers.
Say Gesicki can accumulate 100 targets and improve his catch percentage even slightly to 68%.
That sets a floor of 68 receptions, which would be 15 more than Gesicki had in 2020.
Where Gesicki has already shown a high ceiling in comparison to other tight ends is in yards-per-reception.
Last year Gesicki ranked third among tight ends with 13.3 yards-per-reception, ahead of Waller (11.2) and Kelce (13.1).
With 68 receptions and at the same yards-per-reception, that would put Gesicki over 900 yards receiving.
Now with a 17-game slate, this seems even more attainable.
Gesicki tied for fifth among tight ends with six touchdowns, averaging one about every nine receptions.
Increased targets and improved catch percentage could see him at eight or even nine scores in 2021.
A stat line of 68/900/8 would all have been top five marks in the NFL last year.
Add an improved quarterback and more deep threats in Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller, Gesicki sits as a prime candidate for a breakout season.
Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/Gesicki-phi-scaled.jpg17112560David Eversolehttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgDavid Eversole2021-07-16 18:42:422021-07-16 18:42:42Can Mike Gesicki be a Top Five TE This Season?
When you look at the Miami Hurricanes roster, they have a collection of talented running backs. Some are more talented than others. Some also have more experience than others. With five in total, one name I would pay attention to is Don Chaney Jr.
He was not the main back in the Miami rushing attack last year. Rather, he played in spurts, and played well. Jaylan Knighton and Cam’Ron Harris made up the bulk of the Miami rushing attack last year, leading Chaney to hardly see any action. Even still, he was able to shine towards the end of the year.
Take the contest against Duke on December 5. In that game, he recorded nine carries for 62 yards. A couple weeks later, he provided strong production in the Cheez-It Bowl. He recorded six carries for 50 yards including a 27-yard rush that was his longest of the evening. He was a bright spot in what was a dismal game overall.
In that game, he was able to put this full skillset on display. He ran hard, and he ran physically. Those two traits in particular were things that were missing from the Miami rushing attack for a good portion of last season. He also hit the holes hard ,and it was not afraid to bear all over defenders when he needed to. With his performance in that game, he gave a potential preview what could be coming down the road.
His good end to last season is only one reason to be excited about his potential heading into 2021. The other reason is his impressive numbers in the weight room. Chaney told the media his squat was to 555 pounds, and his benchpress was up to 315 pounds. Those numbers are certainly not too shabby.
Between his good performance at the end of last season and work Chaney has put in this off-season, I see him having a breakout year. He could be a key piece for a Miami Hurricanes rushing attack that ranked seventh overall in the ACC in 2020. That number is not too shabby, but it’s one that can certainly be improved upon. Chaney could bring stability to that portion of the offense.
Chaney figures to be high on the depth chart for Miami in 2021, so he will have opportunities to prove himself. If he can show the same tenacity and physicality that he did at the end of last season, the starting running back job could be his for the taking sooner rather than later.
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Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/IMG_2817.jpg13692048Danny Jaillethttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgDanny Jaillet2021-07-16 17:38:582021-07-19 09:58:17Miami Hurricanes: Don Chaney Jr. poised to build off strong end to 2020
Th. Miami Hurricanes have started to see some commitments trickle in over the past couple of days, and they are still very much in play for some of others. One of those players is 2022 five-star defensive end Shemar Stewart.
Stewart is the seventh overall defensive end in his class, and the second overall player in his class from the state of Florida per the 247Sports Composite Rankings.
It’s worth noting that Miami is recruiting him via cornerbacks coach Demarcus Van Dyke as the primary recruiter. Van Dyke is on a little bit of a momentum swing as of late. He got cornerback Khamauri Rogers to commit on June 19. He also received a commitment from cornerback Chris Graves on July 9. In doing so, Miami has silently he can to put together an extremely strong group of corners.
This is certainly encouraging because corner has been a position that the Miami Hurricanes have struggled to recruit over the past couple of seasons. Now it is going to be a position of strength, assuming Miami develops them properly
This could bode well for Shemar Stewart
There have been a couple of developments over the past couple of days that have put Stewart a little bit into focus for Miami. For one, Josh Newberg of 247Sports put in a “high confidence” score for Stewart in his Crystal Ball prediction on July 11. Andrew Ivins and Steve Wiltfong both have put in Crystal Balls for Miami as well, but they are “low confidence” scores. The newest Crystal Ball could be a telling sign.
Secondly, there is no denying that Van Dyke has generated a little bit personal momentum on the recruiting trail. I truly believe that this could work in Miami’s favor. One could argue that Miami received two commitments at corner because that was a position of need.
However, there is always a recruiting pitch that coaches tell recruits. Van Dyke’s seems to be working. This could be another opportunity for him to strike while the proverbial iron is hot.
It will be interesting to see the correlation between Van Dyke’s success and Stewart’s recruiting process. It could be extremely evident, or it could not play a factor at all.
If Van Dyke can land another big recruit in the state of Florida, that would certainly reflect positively on him. Miami is going up against Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas A&M among others for Stewart. It will certainly not be easy, but judging by his recent success, I can see him luring in another big fish.
Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/IMG_2817.jpg13692048Danny Jaillethttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgDanny Jaillet2021-07-15 13:21:442021-07-19 09:58:58Miami Hurricanes: Demarcus Van Dyke gaining momentum with Shemar Stewart looming
It’s always fun to play the prediction game. I’ve already predicted the Miami Dolphins 53-man roster on both offense and defense, and I’ve even offered a perspective on the top five training camp battles to watch as it inches ever closer. But there is still one topic that hasn’t been elaborated on yet. In the spirit of my YouTube show – “Pulse of Fins Nation” – I asked you, the audience, what player you wanted to watch more than anyone else in training camp.
Name me one @MiamiDolphins player you want to see perform more than anyone in training camp…not counting Tua Tagovailoa. He goes without saying.
Immediately I disqualified Tua Tagovailoa. Obviously, everyone wants to see what he’s going to do. If he doesn’t perform, it likely won’t matter what anyone else on the team does. There would be no point in asking the question without setting those parameters. Tagovailoa is without a doubt the most polarizing figure in Dolphins history since…the last franchise QB Miami had on their roster, Ryan Tannehill.
So if we’re doing a countdown of the top five Dolphins to watch in training camp are, Tagovailoa tops the list, no questions asked. That’s why for the purposes of this story, he’s being disqualified. It’s too easy. So here are the top five Miami Dolphins to watch – according to you, the audience – not named Tua Tagovailoa.
5. Myles Gaskin – RB
Considering how much emphasis was placed on the running back position during the offseason, it’s no surprise that people want to see what Myles Gaskin does with another year as the lead back. Granted, it’s assumed the Miami Dolphins will use a committee approach, but Gaskin will always get first crack at it. It’s his job to lose.
The number of people coming out of nowhere to defend Gaskin is remarkable. It wasn’t that long ago that Dolphins fans wanted desperately for the team to draft a fresh running back, like Najee Harris. Now, there’s no choice but to hope that a potentially improved offensive line will make Gaskin look much better than last season.
.@Tua delivers a dime on the run to Myles Gaskin. #FinsUp
To play devil’s advocate, it’s not as if Gaskin is a bad running back. Far from it. He was a lot better than anyone expected him to be. In the ten games that he played, dealing with the reality of Covid-19 and an injured knee, Gaskin put together 972 total yards (584 rushing and 388 receiving) and five total touchdowns. Production was his claim to fame back in college, and that’s what he’s been doing in the pros. He’s not the fastest, not the strongest, not the most talented. However, he produces, just like he always has.
Everyone is waiting to see if an improved WR corps and offensive line will increase Gaskin’s level of production. He’s definitely an underdog type of player. He’s faced the possibility of being replaced several times throughout the offseason and he’s still standing. The coaching staff clearly has faith in him, camp will tell if that faith was well placed.
4. Xavien Howard – CB
Let’s make this abundantly clear right now. No one is suggesting that Xavien Howard needs to prove anything. He’s a top five cornerback in the NFL, a turnover machine that makes quarterbacks pay if they make a mistake. And, up until recently, he was the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history.
All these votes to see Xavien Howard in training camp are not referring to seeing him perform. They’re referring to seeing him show up to training camp in the first place. Howard’s holdout is well-documented at this point. For whatever reason, Howard is not happy with the Miami Dolphins. Is it the lack of remaining guaranteed money on his contract? Bruised ego due to the fact that his teammate Byron Jones is making more than he is? There’s no way to know for sure.
Only time will tell whether Howard decides to show up to training camp or not. If he does, then even if he plays disgruntled, Howard will play. Then the Dolphins can explore giving him more money later on after the salary cap stops being such a looming figure.
If he doesn’t show up, then there’s no question the defense will take a huge step back in 2021. That is, unless, another player steps up in a big way. More on that later.
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3. Jaelen Phillips – LB
Of all the rookies that the Miami Dolphins added to the roster this year, perhaps the one with the most upside of all is linebacker Jaelen Phillips out of the University of Miami. His history is well-documented. He briefly retired from football after all the injuries he suffered in college, but ultimately came back and singled himself out as a potentially elite pass rusher in the 2021 draft class.
It says a lot about a player that even with that injury history, a team still feels he’s worth drafting with the 18th overall pick. To put it in very simple terms, Phillips has a very good chance of becoming what Dion Jordan was supposed to be when the Dolphins drafted him 3rd overall in the 2013 NFL draft.
Strange how long ago that seems now.
Phillips is big, he’s fast, he can rush the passer and he can cover. He’s a perfect chess piece for Brian Flores to incorporate into the defense. His development will be crucial for the defense to take the next step into becoming the league’s most dangerous unit.
2. Jaylen Waddle – WR
Everyone knows what Waddle brings to the table. He is speed incarnate, and videos of how difficult he’s going to be to cover with the twitch he shows in route-running have fans salivating at the idea of watching Tua Tagovailoa throwing him the football again like the good ol’ days at Alabama.
Just like Phillips, Waddle is an extremely high-ceiling player, which seems to be the theme for the Miami Dolphins 2021 draft class as a whole. With the chemistry he has with Tagovailoa, Waddle projects to be an instant and regular contributor on offense. There’s also the distinct possibility that he’ll take the role currently held by Jakeem Grant as a kick and punt returner. Training camp will reveal a lot about the role the coaches have in mind for the rookie.
1. Noah Igbinoghene – CB
The number one player to watch in training camp is none other than Noah Igbinoghene. Make no mistake, this young player out of Auburn is the Miami Dolphins insurance plan for Xavien Howard. Based on what the reports are, he’ll need to be ready sooner rather than later. Howard seems to be making it a point to express he feels underpaid and underappreciated. Depending on who you ask, he’s either right or wrong. I, personally, don’t agree with Howard.
Nevertheless, Igbinoghene was drafted because of the high ceiling he presents. He may have struggled in his rookie season, but that’s to be expected with young cornerbacks. There’s always a learning curve, which varies in difficulty depending on the position. Cornerback is one of the hardest positions to transition from college to the NFL, and Igbinoghene is still very, very young.
His development has ramifications beyond this season. If Igbinoghene develops and turns into the type of player that coach Flores believes he can be, then the Dolphins won’t need to break the bank all over again to pay Howard and keep their elite secondary. They can trade Howard, get a ton more draft capital, and still have their plan intact. If he doesn’t develop, then Miami faces a scenario where they’ll have a disgruntled Howard who will essentially be able to demand a blank check whenever he wants. Maybe if they pay him a second time, he’ll calm down, but there’s no guarantee of that.
A lot is riding on Igbinoghene taking a huge next step in his second season. It’s no wonder why everyone is watching with baited breath.
Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for seven years. Follow him on Twitter:@LuisDSung
Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/Howard-1-scaled.jpg18502560Luis Sunghttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgLuis Sung2021-07-15 13:20:592021-07-15 13:20:59Fresh Perspective: Top 5 Miami Dolphins to watch in training camp
While the very concept of the All-Star Game may seem outdated, MLB clearly has the best of the four major sports.
It’s been six years since I last attended the MLB All-Star Game. It’s the type of event that takes a place like Cincinnati and turns it into a happening place. An argument could be made that the 2015 All-Star Game that featured their flamethrower of a closer mowing down three of the best hitters in the rival league and the Home Run Derby won by the hometown star was the biggest sporting event to happen in that city since the Reds winning the World Series in 1990 — the year I was born.
Most cities had plenty of time in advance to prepare for All-Star Week. Denver was tasked with putting the event together in the first week of the season and did an amazing job with it. Any market with a downtown ballpark is ideal for maximizing the event that is the All-Star Game. It would be interesting to see what Los Angeles does with it next year after missing out last year.
The crowd at Coors Field represent a comeback after a year that had us all hiding in homes and being away from each other due to a viral pandemic, a year where we all wondered when we will get to enjoy the game we love once again. It was more than a capacity crowd. Everyone was in their seats, and in the rooftop bar, and in the team store, and waiting in line for overpriced food.
It was a Coors Field sellout combined with a typical Marlins crowd. It felt like 2019 never ended.
The national anthem was a beautiful spectacle, starting with one of the stars of Hamilton singing and punctuating with a flyover and firework show.
The Colorado Rockies only had one representative in the game but they fans did get to see Nolan Arenado return to Coors Field as the starting third baseman for the National League after forcing a trade to the St. Louis Cardinals this past offseason after a divorce with the outgoing front office.
“Colorado deserves this,” Arenado said after being serenaded by the fans who knew him for ruling the hot corner for eight years.
Fireworks pierced the sky immediately after the words “play ball” were ushered by one very lucky kid.
We have been waiting for this moment for a long time.
The All-Star Game is meant to be an opportunity to see great moments from the game’s best, starting with Shohei Ohtani, who was the leadoff hitter and starting pitcher for the American League, the first ever to do so. There’s nobody in baseball who has had a better season like Ohtani, who is leading baseball in home runs with 33 while sporting a solid 3.49 ERA with 20 more strikeouts than innings pitched. A perfect inning and a couple at-bats and his day was done.
Perhaps the biggest moment of the game was Vlad Guerrero Jr. hitting a home run ball that nearly cleared the left field stands. He is one of three father-son duos to play in the All-Star Game.
“Dreams come true,” Guerrero Jr. said through a translator after the game. “Since I was a kid, I was thinking about this moment. I’ve worked all my life very hard and a lot of it is happening right now.”
The Miami Marlins, despite a season of struggles, should have had more than only one player in the game. However, Trevor Rogers was a good choice to rep the Marlins. The rookie leads all first-year players in ERA (2.31), innings (101 1/3) and strikeouts (122). He is certainly a shoo-in to win the National League Rookie of the Year.
“It’s something that we really dream of as a kid and growing up,” Rogers said, “here with the best guys in the world.”
While the game seemed like another lopsided American League victory, all anyone wants in a game like this is for the losing team to have a chance. It is even made all the more sweeter if your guy is the one to play the hero.
That wasn’t the case for Marlins fans but if you were a Chicago Cubs fan, Kris Bryant was your guy. With the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth inning, Bryant hits a Matt Barnes fast ball to left field. It would’ve certainly been a game changer had it not been for a sliding catch by Jared Walsh to end the inning.
In the end, a Japanese player started the game, an Australian closed it out and a Dominican won the MVP, all while representing the American League. Baseball is truly a global game.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/DSE2655-1-scaled.jpg18272560Tony Capobiancohttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgTony Capobianco2021-07-14 19:09:242021-07-14 19:23:45Observations from inside the MLB All-Star Game
Depending on who you talk to, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa either broke well past expectations for his rookie year, or he flopped harder than Jamarcus Russell did for the Raiders. So what can Dolphins fans expect in year 2? Will we see Tua take that leap and become an elite level QB in the league? Or will we see Tua descend into QB purgatory, and see the Dolphins back in the market? I believe Tua will rise to the challenge and become one of the top level QB’s in the league.
Tua’s Hip is Healthy
While Tua was in his final season of college at Alabama, he suffered a couple pretty serious injuries. He suffered a high-ankle sprain on October 19 against Tennessee. While that injury typically takes more than 6 weeks to heal properly, Tagovailoa was able to rehab and get back on the field in time to play his heart out in a home loss to LSU. The following week, the unthinkable happened. Tua, rolling left, got tackled awkwardly and dislocated his hip.
In a bang-bang play, Tua suffered what’s become known as the Bo Jackson injury. After being rushed into surgery and having to be very tentative with his hip, Tua was expected to make a full recovery. But what exactly did this mean?
As someone who has also suffered that dreadful injury, I can share that a full recovery is almost completely impossible with an injury like that. It takes about a year to fully recover from it, and Tua was trying to workout, throw, and run drills 5 months afterwards. We were already halfway through the NFL season, and Tua starting, by the time he should have been fully recovered from the injury.
When asked about his hip injury over 2 years ago, Tua said, “My hip feels ten times better than it did last year. I feel very confident coming into my second year”
Last offseason, Tua was trying to rehab a potentially life threatening injury while trying to dive into the playbook and get accustomed to NFL speed. This offseason, Tua has been able to focus more on getting a full grasp of the playbook and offensive schemes, developing chemistry with his receivers.
2. Tua’s Got New Toys
Last season, the Dolphins offense ranked 20th in passing yards/game, and 15th in points/game (ESPN). Out of 32 teams, the Dolphins ranked below average, and just barely above average in two important areas when it comes to passing the ball. Now it’s a little hard to be stellar when your number 2 receiving option in Albert Wilson opts out due to COVID-19 and your deep threat in Jakeem Grant suffered so many drops and, unfortunately, was unable to remain on the field. So what did the Dolphins do to try to bolster their passing game this offseason? They went out and got Will Fuller and drafted Jaylen Waddle.
Fuller, who was the deep threat option for Houston, ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at the combine in 2016. He was also PFF’s 9th highest graded receiver during his 2020 breakout campaign. Through 11 games, he hauled in 53 passes for 879 yards and 8 TD’s. Fuller also caught 70.7% of his passes, which was the highest in the league last season.
Jaylen Waddle on the other hand, was hauling in passes from a fellow first rounder at Tua’s old stomping grounds: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
Waddle was a highly sought after recruit who ended up deciding to join a stacked receiving corps at Alabama. As the 4th option during his freshman season, it was actually his most productive season at Alabama. Hauling in 45 catches for 848 yards and 7 TD’s, Waddle was able to find his numbers despite sitting behind 3 future first rounders. His sophomore campaign was also very productive, at 33 catches for 560 yards with 6 TD’s. Waddle was poised for his best season yet in 2020, with the top 2 options ahead of him heading to the NFL Draft, and posting 591 yards with 4 TD’s through 6 games, although he suffered a near season ending injury in a road game at Tennessee. Waddle fought his way back for the National Championship game though, and despite being hobbled by a clearly not fully ready ankle, Waddle was still a core peice to that Alabama offense.
3. Tua’s Experienced
Last offseason, Tua was a rookie, who was coming off a major career threatening injury, was trying to learn a playbook, dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic and protocols, as well as trying to adjust to the speed of the NFL. All that, for Tua to still start by mid season and carry the Dolphins almost to a playoff berth. Now, Tua has experience with NFL defenses and real time game speed. He learned under Ryan Fitzpatrick, and was able to watch how to command a 4th quarter offense without having to deal with the fire storm that is the 4th quarter of a close game in the NFL.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/E806ABD2-C53D-4014-8606-B93813D1E110.jpeg9861752Wyatt Fultonhttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgWyatt Fulton2021-07-14 13:53:452021-07-14 13:53:45Reasons to be Excited about Tua Tagovailoa’s Second Season
The state of Florida is at the center of the football universe. Not just because Tom Brady and the Tampa Buccaneers are defending Super Bowl Champions, or the Jacksonville Jaguars will be debuting their shiny new quarterback chosen with the first pick in the NFL Draft or the Miami Dolphins can be relevant for the first time in a generation. Not even the passionate fan base of their college football squads can match the hype surrounding this season. Florida is the belle of the “foot-ball” because legalized sports betting is coming. Ready, set, hike!
In May of this year, state lawmakers approved a gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe allowing legalized sports gambling. This would include old school brick and mortar walk up windows at Seminole casinos and a digital component with servers being located on tribal land for on-line wagers. It is a potential windfall for the Sunshine State as the compact would net Florida $2.5 billion in the first five years of the deal from the Seminoles. The deal still needs federal approval and already has opponents.
The Seminoles can choose to work with up to three on-line gambling platforms as part of the compact but two major outlets: DraftKings and Fan Duel have funded a separate political committee, Florida Education Champions, to legalize sports betting in the entire state and not have to deal exclusively with the Seminoles. This would open the door to not just on-line betting, but wagering at sports venues, other casinos, racetracks, just about anywhere in the state. Imagine the potential of filling your gas tank and laying a bet on the game. They are hoping to have that on the November 2022 ballot.
According to this page here, we could see Florida legalizing sports betting later this year. While it likely won’t be launched in time for the start of the NFL season, at least Florida residents can start signing up online. Once the bill passes legislation, it won’t be long till sports betting officially launches.
So, in South Florida, it’s good time to start prepping for the Dolphins 2021 season. The team rollercoastered to a 10-win season shattering their expected win total of six and finishing one win shy of a playoff appearance. It’s Tua Tagovailoa’s team now with Ryan Fitzpatrick in Washington and Tua has plenty of weapons through the air with DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki and rookie Jaylen Waddle. I’m still not sold on the ground game something that could keep them from hitting this season’s over/under total of nine. The season features a tougher schedule for Miami with opponents from the NFC South (Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers, Falcons) and AFC South (Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Texans). There are also games with the Raiders and Giants, and a short week Thursday night game against the Ravens, to go with the usual home-and-home sets with the Bills, Jets and Patriots.
Miami doesn’t get its first bye until after Week 13, so health could be a major factor, especially with the added 17th game this season.
I see a 9-8 finish, once again just short of the playoffs.
Whether it’s Dolphins, Buccaneers or Jaguars, what does all this mean for sports investors in the third largest state in the U.S by population? Legalized sports gaming is coming, and it will be here if all goes to plan, for this football season. More two dozen states have some form of legalized sports gaming. Florida is in the Red Zone and nearly across the goal line. So the real question is: are you ready for some football?
You can follow all of Jim Rodriguez’s picks at @JRodShow on Twitter.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/0A844256-E753-44F5-93DC-A7A5BD8ECA17.jpeg6001000Jim Rodriguezhttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgJim Rodriguez2021-07-14 07:52:452021-07-14 08:07:37It’s Time to Bet On (and In) Florida
What to Look For, Three Weeks Prior to Training Camp…
#1- The Dolphins will continue to be a “Blitz Heavy” Defense in 2021.
With the addition of Jaelen Phillips, a much needed boost to the pass rush was had, and a narrative developed that Miami can now “use 4” to get to the QB. Blitzing would not be as necessary, and the numbers they bring could go down. Not So. In 2020, Miami brought 5 or more rushers at the 5th highest rate in the NFL, and used Cover 0 at the highest rate PFF.com has tracked in the last 5 years. Miami likes to play Cover 1, and like to dictate to the offense on 3rd down. That entails fronts that make the offense adjust pass protection, and thus, requires multiple rushers in as many gaps as possible. Jaelen Phillips should help with the overall pass rush win rate which was mid pack at 40% last season. Sending numbers on defense is not a Bug for Miami, it’s a feature.
#2- Miami is now an 11 personnel team on offense. (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB)
Miami drafted a WR at 6th overall. That alone coupled with what they have on the roster says they need to get as many of these guys on the field as possible, but it doesn’t stop there. The signing of Will Fuller allows for more natural alignments with DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, etc. While Jaylen Waddle is the Slot threat, others can play alongside Fuller/Waddle in bunch formations, and force communication in the secondary. Getting speed on the field seems to be what the Dolphins were going for this offseason, and getting the defense to call switches will be a feature. While Waddle stretches the defense laterally, Fuller threatens vertically, Parker, Preston, etc., are free to negotiate routes they are best at running. Make no mistake, this unit was constructed to work in tandem, and thus, they must be on the field together.
#3- The “rebuild” is complete.
Miami tore down the roster, in it’s entirety in 2019, and has meticulously gone about filling every perceived hole on the roster. The Dolphins return 3 starters from 2019 to the 2021 team on offense (Jesse Davis, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki) and 4 on defense (Jerome Baker, Christian Wilkins, Eric Rowe, Xavien Howard). They have drafted, or signed, 15 starters for the 2021 team the last 2 offseasons. Most of these signings, represent longterm commitments from either, high Day 1, 2 draft picks, or significant free agent signings or trades. There is simply not as many holes to fill anymore. The Miami Dolphins window for a championship is now officially open.
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#4- The Miami Dolphins have high expectations.
On the gambling front, Miami is now favored in 9 of 17 games (was 10), and has an over/under win total that has reached 9.5 games. Both represent the highest numbers in near 20 years. Most analysts are picking the Dolphins to be a playoff team, and after nearly getting there last season, and winning 10 games, why not? Miami has also gotten praise for their offseason, from signing Will Fuller, to their latest draft class. Improvement is expected. Second year QB Tua Tagovailoa, has worked on his body, has had a complete offseason (no rehab) and is free of his obligations to rehabbing his Hip Injury from 2019. He should also be completely in tune with the playbook having immersed himself in it for an entire offseason. A big “jump” is expected from what by any measure was, a decent rookie year. 10 wins is not only a baseline for this team, but the minimum requirement.
#5- Miami might have the NFL’s most exciting team.
We know about the defense and it’s propensity to blitz, but the offense is now very different, and a far cry from it’s “ball control” tendencies in 2020. The Offense as constructed, is built to use combination routes to free up shot plays, and the acquisitions of Waddle/Fuller now open up the field laterally as well as vertically. Miami’s running game, should feature more outside zone, now boasting several RB’s that are very good at it (Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, Salvon Ahmed). The return game has players such as Jaylen Waddle, and Jakeem Grant (if he makes it) which are threats to take every kickoff or punt they receive for a touchdown. Simply put, the 2021 Miami Dolphins have a young roster, that is constructed on speed and the big play on offense, pass pressure and turnovers on defense.
Stats are Courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, ESPN.
Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/115A411F-7DDB-4742-BF90-319DC9608352-scaled.jpeg17072560Alfredo Arteagahttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgAlfredo Arteaga2021-07-07 21:09:572021-07-09 10:57:495 Things to know about the 2021 Miami Dolphins.
A look at who Miami should or shouldn’t look to sign and how they’d fit on the roster moving forward.
Welcome to the final installment of the Miami Heat Free Agency series. In case you missed any of the first two parts, check them out before reading part three. I went over ball-handlers in Part 1 here and wings in Part 2 here. For today’s final piece to the offseason puzzle, I’ll be looking at Frontcourt options. Last season Miami could never find that right player to start alongside Bam until Trevor Ariza did an admirable job on such short notice. The team had to also wait until the buyout acquisition of Dewayne Dedmon to get any semblance of a solid backup after Precious Achiuwa hit the rookie wall at 100 miles an hour.
Frontcourt Options:
Miami will hope not to swing and miss so hard this offseason the same way they did with the Harkless signing last year. I mentioned plenty of options in the previous installment that could fit into the PF spot — but I’ll stick to guys who played the four more throughout their careers. There is still a contingent of Heat fans (including a specific front office member) who say Bam should play the 4, and I don’t necessarily disagree with that assessment. It all depends on the type of 5 you’re getting. You certainly can’t have a big man like Dedmon who isn’t a considerable threat to shoot anymore. It all depends on the player and how much Bam develops his outside game. Without further ado, let’s get into some free agents.
John Collins (RFA, Hawks own Bird Rights)
Age: 24
Fit: 9/10
Reliability: 9/10 (reminder that this is in terms of health)
Attainability: 1/10
Half-Upside/Half-Win-Now Player
Overall Rating: 8.5/10
John Collins is the one player Heat fans want to pair along with Bam for the rest of their careers. A power forward that can play the 5 or even the 3, depending on the lineups. He can shoot from 3 at a respectable percentage on good volume and is also in the same age group as Adebayo. On the surface, it’s the perfect fit. While I think the fit would be pretty good offensively and even somewhat workable defensively, there are some worries. Collins is still prone to get pushed around by stronger players on the defensive and offensive end. You could see how much he struggled with guys like PJ Tucker, Jrue Holiday, and Giannis Antetokounpo. That can be addressed with some offseason core workouts and getting his base much more robust.
There’s also the part of his offense where he tries to do too much. Collins needs to stop trying to post-up guys as much as he does. It’s more than welcome when it’s a mismatch, but there were many moments throughout the playoffs where it was hard to watch. He would settle for a lot of tough mid-range jumpers that he would hit on occasion. I think his face-up game is something he should spend more energy on building. He’s much quicker than PJ Tucker but never once attempted to go into the triple threat position.
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I’ve called John Collins the Offensive Version of Aaron Gordon, which can be a bad thing or good depending on how you look at it. Both are players best suited for the PF spot in today’s game. They can try doing more than they’re capable of and are prone to disappearing from time to time. Is John Collins worth the investment you’d have to make to acquire him? That’s the question of his entire Free Agency. For the Atlanta Hawks, it’s a much easier answer considering the timeline, age, and their cap room. For a team like Miami, it’s considerably tougher. Collins will more than likely be out of their price range, and they’d have to think about waiting for an eventual Hawks match that might take up quite a bit of time in Free Agency. That time is precious is Free Agency, and Miami would get left at the altar settling as everyone around them gets cuffed up.
Richaun Holmes (UFA)
Age: 27
Fit: 2/10
Reliability: 7.5/10
Attainability: 5/10
Win-Now Player
Overall Rating: 5/10
Richaun Holmes has always been one of my favorite players in the league, dating back to his early Sixers days. Holmes worked his way through the end of the bench into a solid starting center using his great diving to the rim, energy, and unstoppable push floater. The guy has carved out a role that few saw coming in his Process Sixers days. This role might be a bit tricky to plug into Miami, however. Holmes is very much a traditional center that can get played off the floor by stronger 5s due to being undersized. He’s not quite mobile or enough of a shooting threat to fit into current NBA lineups.
The price Holmes will be looking at getting in his first big Free Agency is not much in the Heat’s window. Unless he were to take another mid-level type of deal to become a backup, this engagement seems very unlikely.
Lauri Markkanen (RFA)
Age: 24
Fit: 4/10
Attainability: 5.5/10
Upside Player
Overall Rating: 2/10
Once thought to be the centerpiece of the Jimmy Butler trade that got him to Minnesota, Lauri has fallen off quite a bit. Having Jim Boylen for a year of his development didn’t do him any favors. His relationship with the Bulls and their fans has been a contentious one at best. He’s looked like a new Finnish version of Andrea Bargnani becoming a 7-foot tall shooting guard. His defense is still mediocre at best while not having much versatility on either end.
You can talk yourself into tapping into that potential seen in his first few seasons, but it would depend on the cost. It won’t be complicated to pry him away from the Bulls, who seem done with his services. I expect him to get scooped up by a rebuilding team looking to grab a player on the cheap to unleash whatever untapped talent remains.
JaMychal Green (PO, UFA if declined)
Age: 31
Fit: 8/10
Reliability: 8.5/10
Attainability: 8/10
Win-Now Player
Overall Rating: 8/10
While JaMychal Green may not be the flashiest name, I think he’s the type of player Miami should look to grab if they use big money (wink Kyle Lowry) elsewhere. Since his last Grizzlies season, he’s been a solid PF and has adapted his style to the modern game while maintaining his toughness reputation. His defense is solid, and he isn’t too bad in space. I’m thinking more big picture with Green as a free agent. I predict the team will invest money in backcourt help and wing versatility, which opens the door for affordable PFs like JaMychal.
The only problem I see is his player option and desire to settle down. He could look to stay on a contender like Denver and sign a long-term deal. If not, Miami should be at his door to fill out the roster.
Jarrett Allen (RFA)
Age: 23
Fit: 3/10
Reliability: 9/10
Attainability: 1/10
Upside Player
Overall Rating: 4/10
While I may be a huge fan of Allen, he’s not the type of big Miami should be looking to acquire. He’s a young player that will get more offered from teams that don’t have a Bam Adebayo at their disposal. Allen is purely a rim running big that has shown great potential as a paint deterrent. Again, this would look a lot different if Bam’s best position was the PF spot, like so many seem to think. There’s also the big RFA in front of his name that’ll likely keep him in Cleveland. Now, maybe there’s a different player you could grab from Cleveland this offseason.
Paul Millsap (UFA)
Age: 36
Fit: 6/10
Reliability: 4.5/10
Attainability: 7/10
Win-Now Player
Overall Rating: 5/10
It wouldn’t be a Miami Heat offseason if there weren’t the possibility of a Paul Millsap signing. However, this season feels a little different than even last year did. The veteran Power Forward is another year older and has taken a step back regarding his shooting and overall role, which is why his fit rating isn’t as high as I would have had it in years past. He won’t be as much of a target by Miami and the rest of the teams looking for frontcourt help. Look for him later on in Free Agency for the mini-mid level or even the vet minimum. Millsap is a depth piece at this point of his career instead of starting PF on a contending team.
Serge Ibaka (PO, UFA if declined)
Age: 32
Fit: 8/10
Reliability: 4/10
Attainability: 4/10
Win-Now Player
Overall Rating: 7/10
Ibaka was a target of the Miami Heat’s last free agency, which left them without a decent PF/C. While Ibaka’s ability as a player that can switch every possession isn’t there anymore, he’s still decent at showing at the level of the screen in drop coverages. His shot-blocking may not be what it used to be, but the threat remains on opposing players’ minds. Serge is the type of Center you can play alongside Bam and even stagger their minutes around each other.
The big worry for Ibaka is his ability to stay on the floor regarding his health. He’s had some lingering issues the past few seasons that could scare teams away. It could also scare Ibaka into picking up his player option. Remaining in LA for 9mil and a possible run at a championship isn’t the worst road to take.
For the last time, we’ll be going into some rapid-fire options. This free agency class is shallow at frontcourt (much like the Heat), so the names might get weird from here on out.
Otto Porter Jr: A bargain bin option for the Heat shall they find themselves looking to fill out the roster. While the shooting has stayed, the same can’t be said for his defensive mobility. Porter Jr has lost a considerable amount of his step on that end of the floor, and it’s more than noticeable. Still, not a bad bench piece to add in the PF department for spot minutes.
Daniel Theis: The former Celtics player and Bam equivalent, according to some, makes an intriguing free agent. I don’t expect Miami to look his way much unless he suddenly got better at shooting or took on a bench role for cheap. I expect him to be back in Chicago more than Lauri considering how he played after the Vucevic trade.
Kelly Olynyk: The Maple Man himself will more than likely be out of Miami’s price range as he’s looking to get a payday plus a starting role. The Heat have already been down that road, and it’s unlikely they go there again.
Bobby Portis Jr: Portis’s case is very similar to that of JaMychal Green. It all depends on how the rest of the roster is filled, but he’s not a bad option once everything is clear. There could be quite a market for him, and he could get more lucrative deals elsewhere.
Dewayne Dedmon: I think Dedmon’s showing last season gave the Heat a reason to bring him back on a team-friendly deal. Miami looked hard for a decent backup big after Olynyk left, and they were very fortunate to have acquired Dedmon off the street. I don’t think anyone would mind another season together.
James Johnson: The former Heat player is coming off a decent stint in Minnesota and an uneven season split in Dallas and New Orleans. While he’s still too inconsistent from deep to be considered for a starting role — having him come off the bench isn’t a bad idea. He’ll more than likely only cost the veteran minimum as well. The relationship he had with the organization is more of what would give pause to everyone involved.
PJ Tucker: Tucker is in the same sort of range as James Johnson. They’ve both still got the defense and won’t be asking for too much on the open market. Miami has had interest before, and I wouldn’t put it past them to have some dialogue at the end of Free Agency if he were still available.
Markieff Morris: I’ve seen Markieff’s name pop up a decent amount in terms of targets, and I don’t get the appeal. Morris hasn’t been the shooter his brother is and tends to ball-stop without giving much offense in return. He’s certainly not a starting-caliber player and should get the minimum if he were to join the Heat.
Zach Collins: The other Collins entering restricted free agency suffered a foot fracture yet again a week ago that’ll likely end his tenure in Portland. I don’t see Miami buying low on Collins as he would waste a roster spot for the majority, if not all, of the upcoming season.
Dwight Howard: I’ll let Udonis Haslem answer that.
Hassan Whiteside: I’ll give my thoughts as soon as I stop laughing.
Andre Drummond: See, above.
Khem Birch: I think Khem will get a pretty good haul for himself this summer, considering where he was last season. I don’t think it will be with the Heat, however. If Miami hadn’t seen what it has in Dedmon, this would be a different story.
Mo Wagner: Now we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel. Miami did show interest this past season, but unless he’s German National Team Mo, I don’t see it happening.
Taj Gibson: Gibson plays the most 90s-like out of anyone still in the NBA. He proved to be a decent backup big, but I think he’ll be back in New York much like Dedmon will be with Miami.
Blake Griffin: Eric Reid’s favorite player will look to chase that ring that eluded him this past season. He was on the Heat’s radar as a buyout option but ultimately chose to go to Brooklyn. I expect him to return to the Nets, as I think the Heat’s priorities will be elsewhere on the roster.
Thanks to everyone who read all three parts of this series as Free Agency fast approaches. Hopefully, it’ll be one that’ll set up for a fun 2021-22 season. Let’s enjoy the Finals and immediately start photoshopping players onto Heat jerseys after. As if you ever stopped.
Trevor Rogers is the most deserving among the Miami Marlins to be named a National League All-Star but he should not be the only one.
When a team like the Marlins is 12 games under .500 this late into the season, it’s understandable for them to only have the mandatory one rep, but the fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of the worst teams in baseball, has twice as many All-Stars is a travesty.
Statistically speaking, an argument can be made for Marlins outfielder Adam Duvall and first baseman Jesus Aguilar making the NL All-Star team.
Duvall currently leads the National League in runs batted in with 60, and is also fourth in home runs with 19. If that is not good enough to make the All-Star team then what is?
Sure, he has 86 strikeouts, a .230 batting average and a .767 OPS, but if that’s good enough for Texas Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo (20 HR, 46 RBI, .233 BA), who is on the American League All-Star team as a reserve, then it should be good for Duvall.
Duvall is certainly more deserving than Los Angeles Dodgers outfielders Chris Taylor (10 HR, 42 RBI, .268 BA, .828 OPS) and Mookie Betts (10 HR, 31 RBI, .247 BA, .810 OPS), who got in as reserves based on name recognition and team affiliation.Aguilar is the only Marlin to have played more games (78) than Duvall (73). He has been the anchor of the lineup ever since arriving to Miami a year ago.
Aguilar leads all NL first baseman in RBI with 53. With 13 home runs, he is on-pace to finish with 25 HR and over 100 RBI, which is similar to his breakout season in Milwaukee in 2018.
Outside of Atlanta Braves’ Freedie Freeman, who was voted in as a starter by the fans, Dodgers slugger Max Muncy is the only reserve first baseman. Muncy has five more home runs and his .974 OPS blows the entire Marlins roster out of the water.
At the very least, Aguilar should be on the final vote ballot.
Pablo Lopez (2.97 ERA) and Sandy Alcantara (2.96 ERA) are certainly worthy of making the All-Star team, but 2021 has been a very good year for National League starting pitchers. Only German Marquez has a higher ERA than the Miami duo and as the Colorado Rockies’ lone All-Star, he pretty much has to be on the team.
Pitchers are usually selected to fill the quota and make sure that every team has a rep. Starters who pitch on the Sunday leading up to the All-Star Game have their roster spot replaced, while still being honored and enjoying the festivities.
So there is still a chance that Rogers isn’t alone in Denver on All-Star Week.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/DSC_0050-2-scaled.jpg17072560Tony Capobiancohttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgTony Capobianco2021-07-05 09:47:472021-07-05 09:49:15Along with Rogers, two other Miami Marlins should be All-Stars
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