NHL Playoffs: Breaking down the next round

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The NHL has released its official playoff schedule following the end of the Stanley Cup Qualifiers, where eight teams were eliminated to form the 16-team playoff bracket. While this year has been a year like no other, what with the COVID-19 pandemic halting play before the end of the regular season, the NHL will hold the Stanley Cup Playoffs now in its two hub cities, Toronto and Edmonton.

 

Eastern Conference

 

#1 Philadelphia Flyers (49-21-7) vs #8 Montreal Canadiens (31-31-9)

 

Both of these teams have underdog status after Philadelphia went from second place in the Metropolitan Division to the #1 seed after winning its three round robin matches and the Canadiens finished off an improbable 3-1 series versus the 5th seed Pittsburgh Penguins in the qualifying round.  While the Flyers are favored to win this series, they have been known to get lazy when they feel an easy matchup in the wind. The Canadiens are also coming off those big wins versus the Penguins, led by Jeff Petry (two game-winning goals) and goaltender Carey Price, whose experience far outpaces that of the Flyer’s 21-year-old goalie, Carter Hart. Price will have his work cut out for him defending the Flyers’ four 20+ goal scorers (Giroux, Couturier, Hayes, Konecny), however, so look for goaltending to make or break this series and don’t be surprised if Montreal pulls off the upset.

 

Game 1: Wednesday, Aug 12 8pmEST

 

 

#2 Tampa Bay Lightning (43-21-6) vs #7 Columbus Blue Jackets (33-22-15)

 

The Blue Jackets shocked the NHL when they swept the #1 ranked Lightning last season in the first round, which makes this rematch one of the most interesting series of the 2020 playoffs. The Lightning, who had tied the NHL regular season record for wins that year, as well as scoring a record-breaking 128 points, psychologically crumbled versus the Blues. This year, they’ll look to prove that last season’s early exit was just a fluke. However, Tampa Bay will be without Captain Steven Stamkos, who is dealing with a leg injury, for the foreseeable future. This should be a high-scoring series between two teams familiar with the playoffs (and with each other).

 

Game 1: Tuesday, Aug 11 3pmEST

 

 

#3 Washington Capitals (41-20-8) vs #6 New York Islanders (35-23-10)

 

The story to watch in this matchup will be that of Barry Trotz going up against his former Stanley Cup winning squad. The current Islanders head coach helped the Capitals win the franchises’ first championship just a couple of years ago, but now his road to the Cup leads through the Caps instead of with them. Despite the Islanders being the lower ranked seed, Trotz’s knowledge of the Capitals, who still have 12 players who were on that Cup-winning roster in 2018, will be imperative in this matchup, and could lead to the Isles stealing the show like they did in their qualifying round series versus the Florida Panthers.

 

Game 1: Wednesday, Aug 12 3pmEST

 

 

#4 Boston Bruins (44-14-12) vs #5 Carolina Hurricanes (38-25-5)

 

The Bruins return to play has been less than ideal, with the team losing all three of their round robin matches against the Flyers, Lightning, and Capitals. During that time, Boston only put together four goals, but their play did improve with each game and star goaltender Tuukka Rask was ruled unfit for play twice, which could have something to do with the losses. Rask is expected to play on Tuesday. Look out for individual play from the Canes’ Andrei Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho and the Bruins’ David Pastrnak. Svechnikov had his first NHL hat trick in Game 2 of the qualifying round versus the Rangers and has had a breakout season with 61 points in 68 games. Aho has momentum of his own as well, with eight points against New York (three goals, five assists) and 20 points in 18 NHL postseason games. But Pastrnak has been a machine this season, tying Alexander Ovechkin for the most goals (48) and finishing first in power-play goals (20) and third in power-play points (38).

 

Game 1: Tuesday, Aug 11 8pmEST

 

Western Conference

 

 

#1 Vegas Golden Knights (39-24-8) vs #8 Chicago Blackhawks (32-30-8)

 

The Blackhawks finished at the bottom of the Western Conference rankings in the regular season with just 72 points but managed to scrape into the Qualifiers with the 12th seed. In their return to play, Chicago has looked like a completely different team, winning the qualifying series versus the 5th-seeded Edmonton Oilers 3-1 with 16 total goals. The Hawks’ regular season woes are clearly behind them and they come into the series with a core of three-time Cup winners in Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Duncan Keith. However, the Golden Knights are having another championship-worthy season, finishing at the top of the Pacific Division in the regular season and winning all three of their round robin matchups versus the Stars, Blues, and Avalanche. Vegas also has upside at goalie with three-time champion Marc-Andre Fleury in the net, backed up by Robin Lehner, who played twice in the round robin games, winning each with a combined .903 save percentage. Meanwhile, Chicago’s goaltender Corey Crawford has been trending upward after struggling in the first two games of the qualifying round series. Though the Blackhawks have a lot going for them, it will probably not be enough to beat out the Golden Knights, who are quickly becoming familiar faces in the playoffs in only their third year of existence.

 

Game 1: Tuesday, Aug 11 10:30pmEST

 

 

#2 Colorado Avalanche (42-20-8) vs #7 Arizona Coyotes (33-29-8)

 

The Avalanche looked good in their round robin play with two victories over the Blues and Stars, including a shutout versus the latter, and a one-goal loss to the Golden Knights. General manager Joe Sakic, who had an illustrious 21-year career with the Avalanche, including two titles in ’96 and ’01, has stayed with the team long after his retirement from playing to put together one of the deepest rosters in the NHL. The Avalanche are led by young stars Nathan MacKinnon, a finalist for the Hart Trophy, and Cale Makar, a finalist for the Calder Trophy. Meanwhile the Coyotes are on somewhat new territory, this being their first time in the playoffs since 2012. However, they pulled off the upset over the sixth-seeded Nashville Predators in the Qualifiers and have lots of momentum coming into the first round. Goaltender Darcy Kuemper is hot right now, with a .933 save percentage versus the Preds.

 

Game 1: Wednesday, Aug 12 5:30pmEST

 

 

#3 Dallas Stars (37-24-8) vs #6 Calgary Flames (36-27-7)

 

The Stars have had a newsworthy season, if only because of the firing of head coach Jim Montgomery in December. Dallas replaced him on an interim basis with Rick Bowness, who was previously an assistant coach in the organization. It should be interesting to see how Bowness shakes things up, but both teams should have a fairly straightforward approach to the playoffs. The Stars will be looking for a shift in momentum, as they’ve been trending down for some time now, losing eight of their last nine, with the one win coming on Sunday’s round robin matchup versus the Blues, where Denis Gurianov managed to pull out the W in shootouts. The Flames, meanwhile, have been scoring big with 16 total goals in their 4-game series versus the Jets, including one six-goal outing and a 4-0 shutout to decisively take the qualifying round. Expect this series to be close and physical.

 

Game 1: Tuesday, Aug 11 5:30pmEST

 

 

#4 St Louis Blues (42-19-10) vs #5 Vancouver Canucks (36-27-6)

 

While the Blues took first place in the Central Division at the end of the regular season, not to mention winning the Cup last year, their return to play in 2020 has been shaky at best. St Louis lost all three of their round-robin contests versus the Avalanche, the Golden Knights, and the Stars, the last in a heartbreaking shootout. And history is not on their side in this matchup versus Vancouver. The Canucks have played the Blues three times in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the latest in 2009, and won all three times. Furthermore, Vancouver is hot from a 3-1 qualifying series versus Minnesota where they managed to shut out the Wild once and win the series in an OT thriller off a Christopher Tanev wrister 11 seconds into overtime. The Blues will need to take over the third period if they hope to win this series, as they entered the third with the lead in all three of their round robin games, only to be outscored by a total of 6-0.

 

Game 1: Wednesday, Aug 12 10:30pmEST

What Florida Panthers need in a new General Manager

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5 Things The Florida Panthers Should Look For in Their New GM

 

On Friday afternoon, the Florida Panthers suffered another loss filled with easily avoided mistakes to the New York Islanders in the qualifying round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The 5-1 defeat sent the Islanders to the next round and the Panthers home with a bitter, yet familiar, feeling. The last time the Panthers made the playoffs was in 2016, when they won the Atlantic Division but lost to the same team, the Isles, in the first round, which makes this last loss particularly hard to swallow. What have the Panthers learned from 2016? Not much, it seems, and not much in the last 24 years, dating back to the last time they won a playoff series. Something needs to change, and that started with the reported firing of longtime General Manager Dale Tallon immediately following the game.

Here’s what the Panthers need to look for in a new GM:

 

#1: High quality drafting

 

Tallon spent the first four years of his 10-year stint with the Panthers doing some impressive work in the draft. In his first year as the Panthers GM, he drafted defenseman Erik Gudbranson and forward Nick Bjugstad, both of which have since moved to different clubs but served the Cats well. Tallon continued to draft well over the next few years, taking a generational talent in center Aleksander Barkov (2013) and big Panthers names like Jonathan Huberdeau (2011), Vincent Trocheck (now on the Hurricanes), and Aaron Ekblad (2014). Some of his later picks, like seventh rounder MacKenzie Weegar (2013), have also proved prosperous. But drafting fell off after 2014 with few of the Cats’ picks getting ice time. 

 

If the Panthers want to be serious playoff contenders, they need a GM who can do what Tallon did in his heyday and draft young, talented players to learn under experienced veteran leaders. With the loss to the Isles, the Panthers can at least look forward to a chance at drafting Alexis Lafreniere if they get a good position in the lottery draft. 

 

#2: Reduction of contractual mistakes

 

As things go in any pro league, there are inevitable mistakes made when it comes to contracts, but the last few years have been a bit harder on the Panthers than many would expect.

 

Tallon’s previously salvageable legacy was effectively and brutally tarnished by the moves he made in the Vegas expansion draft. The loss of Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith for what amounts to nothing, as well as trading Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann to Pittsburgh (also for basically nothing but more contractual obligations), is too much to even get into. 

 

Then there’s the recent controversy over Mike Matheson. You could ask most Panthers fans over the last few years what they thought of Mike Matheson and they probably would’ve given you a glowing review of the 26-year-old defenseman. But Matheson is on the hot seat now after committing two excessively violent penalties against the Isles in the first two games of the series, including a hit against Johnny Boychuk which took him out of play for the rest of the series. Matheson was benched, and if the problems persist into next season, the Panthers may have a big problem offloading his contract, which has five more years and over $24 million left on it. 

 

But Matheson is chump change compared to the catastrophe that was the signing of Dave Bolland. In 2014, the Panthers signed Bolland to a five-year, $27.5 million contract. In two seasons, he played in only 78 out of 164 possible games due to injuries. Eventually, the Cats sent him to the Arizona Coyotes for a couple of picks, but Bolland never played another game. Just a few millions down the drain…

 

The Panthers new GM can’t make these mistakes. Players must be evaluated, not only for talent, but also for physical health and decision-making, especially when it comes to how they will represent the team. Not every player, no matter how talented they may be on the ice, is worth a long-term contract.

 

#3: Understanding of a winning formula (with an emphasis on consistency)

 

When the Cats won the Atlantic Division in 2016, it was because of a very specific player formula. The Panthers took their young core (Barkov, Huberdeau, Bjugstad, Trocheck, Ekblad) and let them grow under the leadership of hockey legends Jaromir Jagr and Roberto Luongo, as well as veterans like Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Brian Campbell, and Willie Mitchell, amongst others. 

 

Having a team of young stars is great, but you can’t blame them (at least, not entirely) when you run into consistency issues. Most young players won’t know how to win in a professional setting unless and until you teach them, and the easiest way to do that is to let winners teach them. The Cats’ consistency issues recently may be a result of having only four players over 30 on the roster. While deserved, it does say something that the team captain is only 24 years old.

 

#4: Development of a young goaltender

 

What can we say about Sergei Bobrovsky? The 31-year-old goalie has definitely had his moments this season, but his contract, signed by Dale Tallon, has definitely put the Panthers in the hole for the next six seasons. Bobrovsky lucked into a 7-year, $70 million contract with the Panthers only because of Tallon’s incompetence. 

 

The Panthers have cycled through a few young goaltenders since Roberto Luongo’s retirement, including AHL call-up Sam Montembeault, who had a few of his own moments as a backup to Bobrovsky, and Chris Driedger, who signed a two-year contract extension with the Panthers last year. Either or both of these two could turn out to be valuable aspects of the future of the organization, but they are also competing against the Panthers first round draft pick of last year, Spencer Knight. Knight is the first goaltender ever taken in the first round by the franchise, and was ranked as the top eligible goaltender in the 2019 Draft.

 

One of these three goalies needs to prove himself a standout to take over as Bobrovsky’s backup (and maybe even to supersede him). But it will take some development to make it happen, and that will have to fall on the new GM’s shoulders.

 

#5: Locking up stars Mike Hoffman and/or Evgeni Dadanov (or replacing them)

 

The Panthers new GM will also need to look at keeping two of their most valuable players, Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadanov, locked up for the next few years, after they become free agents this season. 

 

Hoffman was the Panthers third-leading goal scorer this season with 29 goals and 30 assists in the regular season and three in the qualifying round to lead the team. His talents lie especially in the power play, where he dominates, but he is productive in most, if not all, aspects of the offense. His price will likely come in at around $7 million a year, but if the Panthers can keep him on, it seems worth the cap hit. 

 

Dadanov, meanwhile, has proved himself a worthy addition after some swapping around early in his NHL career. The right wing has scored at least 25 goals in his last three seasons, topping off at 70 points in the 2018-19 season, and frequently joins Huberdeau and Barkov on the Panthers’ first line. 

 

The Cats will need to balance the two players’ worth on the ice with their worth in their wallets because it will almost certainly take some big bucks to keep either of them in South Florida. It seems likely that at least one of them will have to be let go.

NBA Bubble Trends: 3 Breakouts who will get Payouts

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You could say that, as strange as these circumstances are, they have actually created the purest form of basketball.

In the controlled environment of the NBA Bubble, players have minimal distractions other than the lure of cheap beer-shotgunning contests, Call of Duty confrontations and hopelessly broken golf swings. There are no families around to ask them to mow the lawn, or call the landscaper to “do it already.” No portly, potty-mouthed fans in the stands to question their athletic ability and mental acuity. No long flights to sap their stamina. Everyone is equal, in the sense of encountering the same odd, but stable, conditions.

So when players break out in Orlando, it matters. It shows they can handle change better than most, and rise above others. It’s particularly significant when those players are up for new contracts.

Here are three who won’t be anything close to free:

 

Fred Van Vleet, Toronto Raptors

No secret after the Raptors’ run to the title, the repeatedly overlooked guard from Wichita State has been Toronto’s best offensive player in the bubble. averaging 20.8 through four games on 46/43/87 splits while averaging 7.3 assists. For some reason, defenders keep going under screens against him, but the secret’s out about how important he is. So important that the Raptors can’t afford not to pay him, even with Kyle Lowry still impactful. He’s quite a good defender too, even when undersized in the post, as he showed against Miami’s Jimmy Butler.

What’s next: Without question, rudderless teams without point guards and with cap space (Knicks and Pistons come to mind) will come after him, forcing Raptors GM Masai Ujiri to make a choice, a choice that might include trading Lowry’s $34 million to keep Van Vleet — especially with Pascal Siakam due an extension and Marc Gasol and Serge Ibake free agents.

Betting Edge: Bet on Van Vleet playing big in the postseason too, with the Raptors a real shot to return to the Finals. Don’t read too much into Friday’s rout by Boston. The teams should match up evenly in the second round.

 

Gary Trent Jr., Portland Trail Blazers

A totally different player than his bruising father, the deep shooter from Duke has been fearless in the Bubble, averaging 8.8 attempts in his first four games and making a ludicrous 63 percent of them. For a team that seemed wingless beyond CJ McCollum, he’s become the X-Factor the Blazers needed to complement the return of their bigs. Is there enough of a sample size? Well, he’s at 40.9 percent from three for his career, and he’s beginning to show other offensive elements.

What’s next: Trent Jr. is in the middle of a three-year contract that pays him a relative pittance this season ($1.4 million prior to the Covid-19 prorate). Assume that the Blazers sign him to an extension before he becomes a restricted free agent, especially with McCollum so expensive, putting the eternally underrated McCollum in play for a trade.

Betting Edge: If the Blazers can get in the play-in game(s), Trent’s emergence and Jusuf Nurkic’s strength inside make them the favorite against any opponent, even if Portland needs to win two. And they are the only one of the possible play-in teams that can push the Lakers in the first round, because of all their shooting.

 

Joe Harris, Brooklyn Nets

He did win the Three-Point Contest in 2019, so it’s not a surprise he can stroke it. But the former Cleveland Cavaliers second-round selection has been forced to diversify his game in light of all the Nets’ injuries and opt-outs, and he was exceptional as they exceeded expectations with a 2-2 record to start. Harris averaged 19.0 points and 5.3 rebounds, taking as many twos as threes, and making 61.2 percent overall.

What’s next: An unrestricted free agent, he would seem to be an ideal fit as a third option with the returning Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but Brooklyn is about to have an expensive roster, and Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert are still in the offensive mix. Will the Nets see him as an accessory while another team (Knicks? Hawks?) sees him as a necessity.

Betting Edge: Whether Harris and the Nets get the 7th or 8th seed, it’s hard to see them winning more than a game against the Bucks or Raptors in a playoff series, in their current state. Still, Harris is dangerous enough to take the points a couple times.

Jesus Aguilar has emerged as a team leader with the Marlins and prime power source. (Craig Davis for FiveReasonsSports)

Pressure Point: Marlins answer haters with unlikely run of wins

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(Photo above: Marlins newcomer Jesus Aguilar, seen in spring training, has emerged as a team leader and power force with three  home runs.)

 

They have always been the Bizarro Marlins. A franchise that began with a knuckleball has taken more screwball turns than a runaway rollercoaster.

From two unlikely World Series championships without ever finishing first in their division, wholesale selloffs of their best players and a manager praising a dictator despised by the community to an ownership swap, contentious ballpark deal and the rise and heartbreaking fall of Jose Fernandez, the Miami (nee Florida) Marlins have always operated in an orbit off-kilter from the rest of MLB.

But we’ve never seen anything like Team Corona.

Stuck in a Philadelphia hotel under COVID house arrest for more than a week because more than half the team caught the virus. Throwing balled-up socks against mattresses to keep their arms from atrophying.

Somehow those who remained unscathed joined up with a ragtag collection of castoffs and prospects to sweep a four-game series from the Orioles in Baltimore this week to stake an unlikely claim atop the National League East.

Details on the Marlins’ sweep of the Orioles at Fivereasonssports.com

They did it with cardboard cutouts of the teammates who are in COVID-19 quarantine occupying seats near the visitors’ dugout at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Well spaced, of course, for social distancing.

Only the Marlins.

They are 6-1 going into Friday’s series opener against the Mets in New York, with a winning percentage of .857 that leads MLB as what was supposed to be a six-day trip will stretch into more than three weeks. It won’t end until they play Tuesday and Wednesday in Buffalo, of all places, against the orphaned Toronto Blue Jays.

The Marlins were mercilessly pilloried by social media and national media for the outbreak, especially after an unsubstantiated report that players had been out nightclubbing in Atlanta. That proved false, though mistakes in judgment were made that led to infections.

Some people were a whole lot more upset with the action of a baseball team than the inaction of many government officials throughout this pandemic. The reaction has been more understanding about the St. Louis Cardinals, one of baseball’s sacred cows, being similarly stymied by the virus.

In truth, this Marlins misadventure is at essence a human experience, just as the pandemic has been for all of us.

“We’re human beings, not just baseball players,” shortstop and team leader Miguel Rojas said in a virtual group chat. “We’re suffering from this virus. … This has to bring awareness. Not just to our team but to everybody throughout the league.”

Haters will hate. So hell with ‘em, right?

If you can’t appreciate what this team has been though — is still going through with 18 players quarantined in South Florida — and what it’s doing now, by all means go back to posting conspiracy theories on Facebook to drive friends and family batty.

If sports have any value amid a world-wide crisis, the Marlins are providing a pleasant diversion.

“Through all this, we’d like our story to be that we persevered through this, learned from it and moved forward,” manager Don Mattingly said.

How can you not admire this patchwork quilt of a ballclub?

They lost eight of 12 relief pitchers to COVID-19 and had to sign a bunch of retreads Mattingly hadn’t even met before he had to start calling them into games. Yet the bullpen was impeccable in the sweep in Baltimore, including preserving three one-run wins.

They had a 30-year-old Olympic speedskating medalist make his major-league debut by starting in the doubleheader win at two different infield positions. Miami native Eddy Alvarez was already an inspiring story when he went to the 2014 Winter Games following surgery on both knees to repair 12 tears in his patella tendons.

Eddy The Jet is a perfect fit with these resilient Marlins.

As The Associated Press reported, they are the first team to win at least six of its first seven games after losing 105 or more the previous year since the St. Louis Perfectos began 7-0 in 1899.

Can they keep it up? The deck is stacked against them with a grueling schedule to make up for lost time, including finishing with 27 games in 23 days. They also have a stretch with four doubleheaders in 10 days.

For what it’s worth, esteemed NBC6 meteorologist and Marlins fan John Morales @JohnMoralesNBC6 likes the Marlins’ chances better than South Florida’s in this hurricane season.

“I think this Marlins thing has legs. The lull in the Atlantic does not,” Morales tweeted.

Whether the team continues to soar in rarefied air or reality yanks them back to earth isn’t even the point.

What is already apparent is that the long downtrodden Marlins are finally on the way up. A depth of talent that has been long missing is evident in responding to losing half the roster with four consecutive wins.

Circumstances afforded the opportunity for several players to make big-league debuts, notably outfielder Monte Harrison and pitcher Jorge Guzman.

Harrison, acquired in the Christian Yelich trade, is finding his way at the plate but has already impressed with his speed and defense. Guzman, a flamethrower who came in the Giancarlo Stanton deal, was impressive in a 1-2-3 debut inning, then gave up back-to-back homers in the next.

Meanwhile, most of the top prospects are still playing Intrasquad games in Jupiter — hitters like JJ Bleday, Jesus Sanchez, Lewin Diaz and Jazz Chisholm as well as a potential future starting rotation.

Right now the Marlins’ rotation is Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez (both splendid in their Baltimore starts) and Who Are Those Guys as top three starters Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Jose Urena continue to recover from the virus.

They summoned 23-year-old right-hander Humberto Mejia, who hasn’t pitched above the High-A level, to start Friday in New York (Guzman was sent down). A cast of barely recognizable relievers is sure to follow.

“I’m going to have to write a book after this,” Mattingly said after the Marlins completed their first four-game sweep since 2016 and in the process made Mattingly the franchise leader in wins with 282 in his fifth season.

Mattingly noted that the team recognized the achievement with “a nice little bottle of bubbly for a train ride [to New York] you’re not allowed to eat or drink on. You don’t want to drink because you can spread the particles in the air. It was a nice gesture on behalf of the organization.”

Could only happen with the Marlins in the time of coronavirus.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Marlins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Thursday Trends: 3 Plays in the NBA Bubble

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So some things never change.

Like Dion Waiters’ belief being stronger than your doubt.

But in these Bubble-licious times, much is different than we anticipated. We should be used to odd circumstances by now — after all, who knew we would have a reality TV star overriding the science-based recommendations of one of the most decorated infectious disease specialists on the planet? Or that pizza delivery drivers would become essential workers? Or that the Miami Marlins would be in first place in baseball’s National League East on August 6 after playing just six games?

Here are three NBA trends not everyone saw coming, and how seriously you should take them:

 

“Cash Considerations” Cashing In

Yes, cash considerations. That’s what the Phoenix Suns got for forward TJ Warren and a second-round pick on NBA Draft night. Warren, best known previously for getting the finger and getting called “trash” and “soft” and “not on my f—- level” by the Heat’s Jimmy Butler. Warren has been above everyone level’s in Orlando, averaging 39.7 points in three games, all Indiana Pacers wins.

Will it continue?: Well, not to this degree, since a run like this would rank with anything Michael Jordan ever did -to anyone other than LaBradford Smith. But, while few noticed, Warren was shooting 61 percent in February and 51 percent in March, while averaging 19.9 points per game. So he’s good.

The Betting Edge: Do you trust Indiana in the playoffs? That depends on Domantas Sabonis and Vic Oladipo more than Warren. If the Pacers keep winning, they’ll likely finish 4th or 5th in the East, especially since they have two regular Bubble games left with the Heat. Then they’ll likely face the Heat. And, the Butler-Warren intrigue aside, the Pacers aren’t beating the Heat unless they can throw more at Bam Adebayo than just Myles Turner up front, and can exploit the Heat’s point of attack defensive issues with Oladipo. Will Sabonis (foot) come back? Will Oladipo (knee) round into form? If not, the Pacers are still a first round exit.

 

Raptors Rise 

They’re taking this Lockdown in the Bubble seriously, eh? First in defense through three games with a ridiculous 96.1 rating. Small sample size? Sure. But there’s no reason it can’t continue. The Raptors are quick, long, switchy and deep, and they did a number on the Heat’s offense Monday, frustrating sniper Duncan Robinson off the floor. This has been the NBA’s best team since February 15.

Will it continue?: Why wouldn’t it? Toronto is fully healthy for the first time all season, and has developed a game independent of Kawhi Leonard. Nick Nurse has already proven to be an elite coach. Plus, Kyle Lowry is good for a final minute flop that seals the deal.

The Betting Edge: Keep picking the Raptors until other bettors catch on. News seems to travel slow to the States for some reason (we are dismantling the federal post office here, after all), and even with a few NBA analysts catching on, it’s not like anyone really listens to Kendrick Perkins.

 

Lakers Clankers 

They’re first in the West for sure, having clinched that already, even with LeBron James somehow characterizing that as some sort of unexpected achievement. Anthony Davis is taking the leap after the leap after the leap, establishing himself as a top-5 player until his bad luck forces him to fracture an orbital bone, and LeBron — while disconnected at times so far — should pick up his play when it matters. But here’s the thing: beyond them, this team just isn’t that good offensively, and it’s mostly reflected in their shooting. Even with Rajon Rondo absent for now (which is for the best), the Lakers are making just 25 percent of their three point shots in the Bubble regular season games, and it’s hard to see how that gets much better. That’s the reason they were dead last in offensive rating in the Bubble through four games, at 96.6, which is what TJ Warren now scores for Indiana in a quarter.

Will it last?: Well, this is almost impossible to predict, since you’re counting on the likes of the aforementioned erratic Waiters, TMZ Kyle Kuzma and the always amusing JR Smith. (And what happened to Danny Green?). The question is how much it matters if the Lakers defend as they can, even without Avery Bradley, and Davis and James play to their potential together.

The Betting Edge: It’s difficult to trade 2’s for 3’s all game. If the Lakers draw Portland in the first round, they’re unlikely to lose, but the Blazers might be worth a play on the points a couple of times, with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum likely to do damage.

 

Tyler Herro is here to silence his doubters

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Tyler Christopher Herro is not someone who wants to just fade into the background. He is a brash rookie that doesn´t back down from anyone,  but his confidence doesn´t bleed into arrogance and he is also respectful of the coaching staff and the veterans that are eager to mold him into the next Miami Heat superstar.

Herro is the kind of shooter that the Miami Heat hasn´t seen since…well, ever. His seven three-pointers during a 134-129 win against the Washington Wizards set a Heat rookie record for threes made in a single game. The 20-year-old even already had his first signature moment in the NBA when he made American Airlines Arena go bonkers after a dramatic game-winning shot against the hated Philadelphia 76ers.

He could have done so many things on that play. Drive to the rim at full speed, to begin with, since he would most likely have gotten fouled. He could have passed the ball to the trailing Jimmy Butler, who had gotten the steal and is the team´s veteran star closer after all. But no, he pulled back and shot from long distance with no worries in the world. Like 20,000 people at the AAA and millions more in their homes weren´t holding their collective breath.

His restart debut in Orlando only emphasized that growth, which went beyond his seven points in 20 minutes of action off the bench during Miami’s 125-105 rout of the depleted Denver Nuggets. Herro seemed at ease and already showcases new facets of his offensive repertoire as well.

People seem to think that his upside is a Devin Booker-type player, but his mentality is different. Booker is about his numbers, while Herro is about rising to the moment.

In other words, the kid has cojones. Then again, we are talking about a guy that was born in Wisconsin but made for South Beach with a penchant for luxury cars and Gucci purses.

FROM SNOW PLOWER TO SHOT CALLER

Herro grew up in Milwaukee, and naturally his first job was as a snow plower for his dad Chris.

Life in the suburbs of dairy land wasn´t exactly like the basketball showcase of nearby Chicago. Far from it, the most famous alumni at his local Whitnail High School were former Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Joel Stave (who was the school’s all-time winningest QB but also was waived by six different NFL teams without ever taking a single snap) and 1980 Playboy Playmate of the Month Jeana Keough.

In other words, the fast lane to basketball glory wasn´t at 5000 South 116th Street, Greenfield, Wisconsin. However, if you are talented, the recruiters will find you.

Herro averaged 32.9 points per game and took his school to the sectional semifinals as a senior phenom, hitting game winning shots against archrivals, having ridiculous nights with 45-point triple-doubles and having his classmates call Milwaukee “Tyler City” while making First Team All-State. It didn’t matter if he was snubbed for the McDonald’s All-American game, schools like Kansas and Villanova were already knocking at him, but his original intention was to stay at home with the Badgers, committing verbally as a junior in 2017.

That senior year changed everything, and a visit from Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari made him question what he thought was so clear as well. That was how Calipari convinced Herro that the Wildcats were “a better fit” for him.

That didn’t sit well in Wisconsin.

“A lot of people were calling me ‘snake’ and stuff like that,” Herro told the Kentucky Kernel in 2018.  “Different Wisconsin fans coming to my games, booing me and stuff like that.”

Herro arrived at Rupp Arena ready to fill the void left by current Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, one of five one-and-dones and six NBA-bound Wildcats and in 2018. Alexander averaged 14.4 points and took Kentucky to the Sweet 16, but Herro went a step further into the Elite Eight while also being second on the team averaging 14.0 points per contest and shooting 46.2% from the field, 35.5% from deep.

Calipari has seen many super talented prospects come and go during the past decade since he arrived at Kentucky in 2009, but he considers Herro one of his 10 all-time best clutch players and “bucket getters” (makes sense), and also one of his two best lockdown defenders. That’s curious, because Herro’s defense is actually one of the main things coaches, writers and fans emphasize as an area of improvement for the rookie in the NBA.

Herro started all four games for Kentucky during the NCAA Tournament, averaging 12.3 points and 3.5 assists…but his three-point percentage was a horrendous 18.8% (3-for-16), something to keep in mind for when the lights shine brightest in the NBA playoffs later this month.

His last game as a Wildcat was one to forget, as he scored just seven points going 3-for-11 from the field and 1-for-5 from deep in a 77-71 loss to fifth-seeded Auburn.

After the game, a dejected Herro sat in his locker fielding questions and said that “of course” that there was a chance he would be back in blue-and-white for a sophomore year.

However, the lure of being a potential lottery pick *https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2019-nba-mock-draft/) made him decide to turn pro instead.

DRAFT NIGHT DOUBTERS

And a lottery pick he was indeed, the last one actually, as Pat Riley picked him with the 14th  selection, just one spot after Kentucky top scorer P.J. Washington went to Charlotte,

In spite of that feel-good moment and Riley’s praise, the pick was met with a lot of skepticism in Miami, where the team was coming off a 39-43 season and resided in salary cap hell. Some fans booed the pick and Twitter didn’t hold back, as always.

Herro put in the work during the summer of 2019, and the second game of his NBA career was in Milwaukee. You would think his hometown would have been proud of him, but he got greeted by boos instead. Dwyane Wade, who also played college basketball in Milwaukee at Marquette and is the Heat’s all-time best player, came to his defense.

Herro didn’t care much, or at least he didn’t show it. His 14 points and five rebounds contributed to a thrilling 131-126 overtime win against the Eastern Conference’s best team, and that would be just the beginning of a fairytale season for both him and the team.

Let’s just say the bandwagon filled up quickly after that. “Old Ass Taintstick” is probably bragging about how he always loved Herro.

Herro injured his ankle in mid-February and the Heat went 7-9 in his absence during the following six weeks. His return would be short-lived, since it was during the final game before the pandemic against P.J. Washington’s Hornets.

Four months later, he is fully healed and better than ever, hoping to write a new chapter of his story as many experts are not so sure about the Heat’s chances to make it far in the playoffs. Then again, he already knows what to do with the doubters.

5 conclusions we can draw from Miami’s recent recruiting momentum

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If you are a Miami Hurricanes fan, it’s no secret that the Canes have been killing it on the recruiting trail lately, getting commitments left and right. That flame will still carry a lot of fire into August with the impending decisions of the Palmetto trio of five-star DT Leonard Taylor, five-star CB Jason Marshall, and four-star S Corey Collier. But what have we learned from all of the excitement up to this point?

 

Ephraim Banda is an elite recruiter

 

Yes, I wholeheartedly believe this even though he doesn’t work for Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, or Kirby Smart. But the recruits he’s been able to reel in the past five years has been incredible, considering the circumstances. A lot of critics (fans really) have zeroed in on the recruits he missed out on but let’s take a look at the guys he’s been able to close the deal with. 

 

We all remember that abysmal 2019 class when Banda could not catch enough flack for missing out on Tyrique Stevenson when he opted for Georgia instead of Miami. Shoot, on the morning of National Signing Day earlier this year, that whole mess with Jaiden Francois also ended with Miami on the losing side to Nebraska of all schools. 

 

Missing out on Francois hurt for about two hours. However, it was practically forgotten about when Avantae Williams shocked the world and chose the Canes over highly-favored Florida. You know why? Because Banda had been laying the groundwork in Williams’ recruitment since Williams was in the 8th grade. Avantae initially committed in February 2017 and was in the fold for 15 months. He de-committed, but Banda kept working his magic enough to regain his signature on Signing Day. On top of that, he landed a couple of other high-level South Florida safeties in four-star Jalen Harrell and three-star Brian Balom. 

 

Banda was also the primary recruiter for five-star James Williams, whom everyone thought was a LOCK for Georgia. 

 

It also helps that he currently has 7 (!!!) safeties that he’s coached at Miami currently in the NFL.

 

As of right now, Banda is the 11th best recruiter in the country according to 247Sports but he absolutely deserves top 5 status should he snag the Palmetto duo of five-star CB Jason Marshall and four-star safety Corey Collier. 

 

Miami’s 2021 recruiting class will be South Florida-heavy

 

Out of Miami’s 21 commitments, 19 currently hail from the state of Florida. Out of those 19 in-state commitments, 17 hail from the South Florida tri-county area. In addition, 2 of the 4 not from South Florida (Deshawn Troutman and Elijah Arroyo) actually have Miami roots. 

 

Enough numbers, but you get the gist. I’ve always felt as if there were a time where we could comfortably say “The U is back”, it has to start from recruiting heavy down here. You have to lock down South Florida. There’s so much talent in Miami alone, from Overtown all the way down to Florida City and Homestead, and the reality is that they’re not going to get everyone

 

Miami’s initial rise to glory was back in the 80’s when Howard Scnhellenberger did what every former Miami coach was afraid to do and that was to recruit in the inner city. From there, he basically unlocked Pandora’s box containing the talent-rich schools in the area that would later elevate the program to national prominence. 

 

It was important for Diaz to emphasize South Florida in the 2021 class not only for future success but also because of how talent-heavy South Florida is in this current class. 

 

16 of the top 36 prospects in Florida are from the tri-county area. And out of those 16, 7 are currently committed to Miami and that number could reach as much as 10 by the end of the cycle should they land Leonard Taylor, Jason Marshall, and Corey Collier. In reality, the Canes are not going to get every prospect they want down here, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing if you consider how talent there is. But they’re already operating at a good percentage.

 

Miami is not that far from achieving championship-level depth at safety

 

There’s a reason why you always see teams like Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State in the College Football playoff. Okay maybe there’s a like a few but a big one is the story told by the depth chart. You have your 1st-team and 2nd-team All-American starters on both sides but when they get hurt, there isn’t much of a drop off when the next guy is called. 

 

Miami had a great haul in 2020 with Williams as well as Harrell and Balom. And as it stands, they’re slated to bring in five-star James Williams and four-star Kamren Kinchens. That’s a good two-deep at both safety spots in 2021 and it could be even better if Gurvan Hall and Bubba Bolden decide to stay for their senior years. So yes, that’s the depth we can possibly see when Miami plays Alabama in the 2021 season opener. 

 

Commitment to winning  = Recruits are buying it

 

After one season, Manny Diaz has already separated himself from the two men he succeeded. No, it’s not about going 6-7 in his first season at the helm. It’s about always having his finger on the trigger if changes are needed. One of the biggest downfalls of Mark Richt and even Al Golden was that either they were too loyal to some of their assistant coaches or they were resistant to making changes even though there was a glaring need. For both coaches, they both got the axe before they could invoke change. 

 

When Al Golden was hired, he brought along a close friend of his in Mark D’Onofrio, who was the defensive coordinator for Golden’s Temple teams. Not even going to sugarcoat it, Miami’s defenses were terrible. In three of three of the five years, the Canes ranked 90th or worse in the nation in total defense. Don’t even get me started when they played Georgia Tech or whatever team that was and they put only 3 in the box when Tech was inside the 5.

 

The offense was very lackluster in 2019 under new OC Dan Enos, who received much hype and praise when he was brought in by coach Diaz. After the season, Diaz wasted no time in deciding to fire Enos in favor of Rhett Lashlee, a man who ran the 7th best offense in the country for SMU. Even though Diaz had a lot of respect for Enos initially, he showed his commitment to not only winning but also turning the program around.

 

Quarantine has not slowed down recruiting for Miami

 

The recruiting dead period commenced in the middle of March but that has not stopped Miami’s coaches from utilizing creative methods to build and further their relationships with prospects and their families. Miami has added 12 commitments since the beginning of quarantine, which accounts for more than half of their total. The Canes already have the advantage of being in close proximity to a majority of the recruits they are in contact with. There’s probably a handful of schools that can say they have this luxury and schools that don’t have a hotbed of talent surrounding them are suffering the most. 

 

Mix in the fact that even if recruits were to take the risk and visit other campuses (most aren’t), they cannot do so with the assistance of coaches. I’m not saying this to discredit the coaches and their work, but that advantage could not come at a better time.

 

The Time Is Now For The Panthers

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The time is now.

For the Panthers, that has two different meanings. But both of the meanings are just as important as each other.

After months of delays because of the coronavirus pandemic, the NHL season had been sidelined. When play stopped back in March, the Panthers were 10th place in the East and 3 points back of a playoff spot with a game in hand. It had been an overall disappointing season for the Panthers, since it was met with high expectations with the big off-season signing of Sergei Bobrovsky. However, the Panthers were coming off a big win and looked ready to make a final push.

Now after the delay, the NHL scrapped the regular season and decided to do a two city, NBA-like bubble. One in Toronto and one in Edmonton.

The top 12 teams in each conference made it to the bubble. The top 4 teams made it as a for sure playoff team while the other 8, including the Panthers, will play in a best of 5 Stanley Cup Qualifier round. 

For the Panthers, they drew the New York Islanders. If you remember, just a few years back, the Islanders beat the Panthers in a gut-wrenching 6 games series. That series, which was mostly dominated by the Panthers, was suppose to be their warning message to the rest of the NHL. Dale Talon’s blueprint had arrived.

Except, it hadn’t.

Since then, the Panthers have just mounted consecutive losing seasons and are on their 3rd coach since. Which is why now is so important. Now is so important for Dale Talon. For Sasha Barkov. For Jonathan Huberdeau. All these guys that have been here and have promised dominant South Florida hockey. This is a telling opportunity for this core to make some noise. If they don’t, you can start seeing some painful moves within the next couple seasons.

Now is also the time for the organization. It’s no secret the Panthers don’t have the best attendance numbers. It’s become a very annoying joke around hockey circles. However, the market has been craving sports. Inter Miami was bounced from the MLS Is Back Tournament and is an embarrassing 0-5, the Marlins season might be canceled since they’re in the middle of a team wide coronavirus outbreak and the Heat have a couple weeks of just meaningless regular season games before the post-season starts.

Meaning, the Panthers can be center of attention for the first since 1996 in South Florida. If they make a run here, people will notice because people WILL be watching. They get three afternoon playoff games, which should do well for their local ratings. They need to win these games and bring excitement to the average fan. They know what the stakes are here.

When the puck drops at 4pm on Saturday, the stakes will be high for the Panthers. A big series win or two can change the course of the organization for years to come, or, they lose and continue to be stuck in the middling mud, losing their little bit of shine they have left in South Florida.

Jimmy Butler finally found a home in Miami

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Every hero’s journey has his or her own origin story, a path they follow to their ultimate goal. That path is almost always filled with lessons learned, hardships endured, and battles won against villains/doubters that got in their way. The odds are stacked against them, but they persevere even if the odds are 14 million to 1.

The Miami Heat is ready for such a challenge, even if the formidable Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers stand in their way. They don’t just believe they can make it to the NBA Finals this fall, they know they can. That determination starts with their leader: Jimmy Butler.

Butler was pushed to his physical limits in Chicago, misunderstood in Minnesota and heartbroken in Philadelphia before arriving in Miami. He has never felt happier or more fulfilled than during this past year with the Heat, but he knows…He knows that he must reach another level to shock the world.

In order to do so, the hero Miami needs will have to reckon with his memories and his own limitations to break through. To understand Butler’s future, the key lies in his past.

DON’T EVER GIVE UP

Still, he loathes reliving the past — so much so that he has removed the rearview mirror on his car (yes, really) as a symbolic reminder to never look back.

Jimmy Butler can be intense. He will get in your face and dare you to play and practice until you pass out, demanding the same amount of selflessness and effort on the court and obsession off of it that he has, challenging preconceptions, and that is not for everyone. It takes a certain culture to embrace that.

We all like to think that we can and will get up from whatever blows life throws at us, but let’s face it. Like Rocky once said, “nobody is gonna hit as hard as life.”

Put yourself in Butler’s shoes:  You spend your childhood without a father after dad walks out on you. But you hold no grudges, and you keep going. You grow up in Tomball, Texas, a small town of 10,000+ people close to Houston but far from the spotlight. Its more famous resident for years was former Enron executive Sherron Watkins, but you dream big.

Then you are in middle school, just 13 years old, and you are coming home thinking about that girl you like or that math assignment due the next day. You open the door and your mom Londa tells you “I don’t like the look of you, you gotta go.”

A lot of things must have been going through his head. How can your own mother’s last words to you be so cutting, so searing? At that point, it’s easy to break if you feel all alone. Bur he held no grudges, and he kept going thanks to a support system that propped him up when he felt down.

Butler wasn’t homeless for long. He attended Tomball High School while staying with the Leslies and becoming friends with Jordan, who was two years younger and would eventually make it to the NFL.

Butler would play basketball with Jordan and be Tomball’s MVP after averaging 19 points during his senior year, but there were no state championships or All-American honors on his trophy case. Most disappointingly, there were no recruits or major scholarship offers. His recruiting profile was a faceless ghost, a two-star nobody. But he held no grudges, and he kept going.

FROM ZERO TO HERO

Butler wasn’t ready to give up on his basketball dreams, so he enrolled at a small school 200 miles away called Tyler Junior College. Nobody had ever made it to the NBA out of Tyler before, and nobody has since. He wasn’t even a Top 100 prospect, but the young Texan was relentless and Marquette University’s coach Buzz Williams took notice enough to offer him an athletic scholarship.

Butler arrived at Marquette and contributed as a sixth man to a team that went 25-10 and lost to Missouri in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Jimmy scored seven points in 30 minutes off the bench, but there was a moment that could have changed everything.

Marquette was up 78-76 with 1:17 to go when Butler took a shot from behind the arc. He was 0-for-3 in three pointers for the season, but he believed in himself. He could make it, he would ice the game and send Marquette to the Sweet 16. However, he missed it, and Missouri came back to win 83-79.

The kid who nobody gave two cents for a year earlier was now a key cog in a contender, and he was ready for more. By the time the 2010-11 campaign came around, Butler was leading the team in minutes with 34.6 per game as he was joined by future Heat teammate Jae Crowder.

Number 33 was cold-blooded, and eager for more. The 2011 NBA Draft awaited him.

THEY WERE SO WRONG

Butler has always had a chip on his shoulder, but more than anything he needed someone to believe in him. Enter Chicago Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau.

The small forward out of Marquette was considered a “jack of all trades, master of none” by many.

In a draft that saw busts like Jan Vesely and Jimmer Fredette as Top 10 selections, destiny would see point guard Norris Cole picked 28th by the Bulls and traded to the Miami Heat. Butler was chosen two spots later, and he was eager to join Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah in Chicago for their quest to dethrone Miami’s own LeBron James, Wade and Bosh from the NBA throne.

Those Bulls would lose in five games to the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals while Butler played only 42 games and averaged barely 2.6 points in 8.6 minutes per game during the lockout shortened season. Most importantly, Derrick Rose tore his ACL during the first round of those playoffs, and everything changed forever for Butler.

Thibodeau trusted him more after that and gave Butler the chance to play in every single game for the first and only time in his career during the 2012-13 regular season, starting 20 of them. One of those starts was against the Heat, and Butler’s 17 points and four assists in 43 minutes helped snap Miami’s historic 27-game winning streak with a 101-97 win by the home team in Chicago.

As Butler evolved, so did his reputation as a clutch player both defensively and, most importantly for his development, offensively.

The problem was, Thibodeau was running him into the ground. Butler averaged career-highs in both 2014 and 2015 with 38.7 minutes per game on his way to being named the NBA’s Most Improved Player and an Eastern Conference All-Star for the first time before signing a five-year, $95 million extension with the Bulls.

2016 saw him get the nod and recognition he craved, getting the nod from Coach K to go to Rio and win the gold medal with Team USA, averaging 5.6 points and 14 minutes a game while playing in every single one of them. His best outing came in the Group Stage against Venezuela, contributing 17 points and a +26 plus/minus in a 113-69 rout.

Butler also fell in love with soccer while in Brazil, where fuchibol is a religion, and forged a friendship with Brazilian superstar Neymar a year later when both of them were in Paris for fashion week.

Back in America, Butler was thriving as Chicago’s go-to scorer in the playoffs, where he averaged over 22 points in 2015 and 2017 along with a blistering 42.9 minutes on the court. However, the Bulls were regressing as Butler was progressing, so the Bulls traded Jimmy to Minnesota on June 22, 2017 for young players such as Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen.

The Bulls were rebuilding, but Butler had visions of a championship with the Timberwolves alongside Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. In theory, those three should have at least put a scare into the Golden State Warriors, but Butler never meshed with them and requested a trade barely over a season after arriving.

THE LONG ROAD TO MIAMI

The “feud” between Butler and Towns was all sorts of ugly, and the press was having a field day concocting theories about Towns’ girlfriend cheating on him with Butler. There was a trend, and that trend was the perception of Butler as a destabilizer.

Minnesota was losing and looking like the NBA version of “Melrose Place”, but in reality all the personal stuff was secondary to what Butler saw as a lack of toughness and will to overcome in Towns and Wiggins.

It all erupted during a practice session that saw Butler play for the backups and decimate the Timberwolves’ starters, calling Towns “soft”. There was no coming back from calling out the franchise’s #1 draft pick, so the team took sides and chose Towns while trading Butler to the Philadelphia 76ers.

Butler was rubbing people the wrong way as a basketball nomad, a troublemaker and disruptor. He even was being labeled as a dreaded “locker room cancer” by the national talking heads.

In reality, Butler didn’t really want to go to Philly. He already had his sights set in South Florida even if the insiders thought otherwise.

Once in Philadelphia, he took that team to another level and found a kindred spirit in Joel Embiid. In fact, he played just as well as Kawhi Leonard during the Sixers-Raptors series that Toronto won in seven games thanks to Kawhi’s miracle shot.

In fact, he could have been the Game 7 hero after tying the game with a layup in the final seconds, but it was just another heartbreak for Jimmy.

Bur he held no grudges, and he kept going, reiterating his desire to play in Miami once again after that season was over. The problem was that Miami had no cap space, or so everybody thought.

Pat Riley pulled off his magic in a sign-and-trade that shipped a malcontent Hassan Whiteside to Portland and guard Josh Richardson to Philadelphia.

So now he is ready to finish what he started and being homeless no more. Butler found his basketball home in Miami, and his family with the Heat. His philosophy has rubbed off on his teammates, there is no softness in the red and white.

With allies like that, Butler believes nothing is impossible. Not after garnering his third career All-Star nod and leading the Heat to a 41-24 record this year. More than anything, he finally feels right at home.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UFC 251: Short Notice Mega Fight

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Where to watch: Saturday, July 11, 2020, FIGHT ISLAND, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Available on ESPN+ PPV.

On the face of it, Kamaru Usman defending his Welterweight title versus streaking (6 fight win streak) Brazilian Gilbert Burns was big enough. A positive Covid 19 test later, UFC chief Dana White was left with a defending champion and no main event. In comes fan favorite, Jorge Masvidal to save the day and keep the “mega fight” title on this most impressive of cards in the “Covid Era”.

You can be cynical, and say, this is too cute by half. Jorge Masvidal made a huge stink about fighter share (revenue), and caused a controversy by going on every show on the UFC’s main partner (ESPN) to complain about how the PPV revenue is divided up, while also threatening to ask for his release. Masvidal made a simple but very good case. Jorge Masvidal took issue with the PPV share because as he put it: “I could understand you don’t want to give me that much on the guaranteed (money). But on the pay-per-view, what I bring in, what people purchase, I want more money on that – and they weren’t budging, and that was that. So all this craziness had to happen for them to come to their senses.” (ESPN) So as it stands, he takes the dangerous but lucrative fight on short notice, so all must be well between Jorge and Dana, or as good as it can be.

Now, Jorge Masvidal gets short notice to fight Usman, and he gets it while reportedly 22 pounds “overweight”, and when in route from Dallas, Fort Worth to his home in Miami. A private plane trip later to “Fight Island”, a photo op with a pizza slice, while wearing a pink robe, and Masvidal has arrived. After testing negative for Covid 19 he is purportedly well on his way to making weight for this championship fight.

So can he actually…win? Short answer: YES.

First of all, short notice upsets are not new to the UFC. One of the biggest fights in UFC history (PPV Buys) featured a short notice Nate Diaz stepping in for Rafael Dos Anjos to defeat UFC golden boy Conor McGregor, and of course you had Michael Bisping defeating Luke Rockhold for the middleweight title after waiting for nearly a decade for a title shot. Bisping accomplished that feat after being defeated with relative ease merely 18 months earlier by the same Luke Rockhold.

 

So how does he win? Avoid takedowns. Jorge Masvidal’s takedown defense is as good as anybody’s in any division in the UFC. The very strong Usman can also be baited into trading, as was seen in his epic fight with Colby Covington where he did not even have a takedown attempt through the entire 5 rounds (He ended it by stoppage in the final minute of the fight). Trading punches with Masvidal has proven to be a poor strategy. As for the “hype”, these two have history. During Super Bowl week here in Miami, Usman and Masvidal engaged in a screaming match, near a bank of elevators, as they challenged each other to a fight.

As for how Kamaru Usman wins? Easier said than done, but it can be easy if he can accomplish one thing. Get takedowns on Masvidal. Usman is the superior wrestler/grappler and he can rain punishment on Masvidal if he can pull this off. So it’s the striker/grappler matchup once again, and it could be as easy as who gets to “their fight” first. One thing is a fact. Neither guy can win at the other’s game.

Prediction: Kamaru Usman (-260) wins by Decision over underdog Jorge Masvidal(+200).

As for the rest of the card, it’s a great one headlined by Alexander Volkanovski (-220) vs. Max Holloway (+180) (Part 2), for the UFC Featherweight Championship, and Petr Yan (-230) vs. Jose Aldo (+190) for the vacant UFC Bantamweight Championship.

All UFC 251 odds cited are via William Hill US.

 

Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.