Guts Check: But Where Are Mine?

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To be honest, the last few weeks I didn’t know if I would ever write anything ever again. Nor continue to record podcasts. I seriously contemplated going off the social media grid for good. As recently as yesterday.

I realize I have a flair for the dramatic and am probably experiencing a bit of exaggerated emotion, but I really was damn close to exiting stage left on all this media related activity.

My full-time career, family, life circumstances etc. always make this balancing act a challenge. It’s 100% incremental work. However, my love and passion for the Miami Heat has always been channeled into finding a way to never look at it as work and contribute. Despite the inevitable curve balls that come in this game of life.

Then Kobe Bryant passed.

It’s weird, Kobe Bryant was one of my favorite players until maybe 2004 or so. I even owned a Lakers purple #8 Kobe jersey, Champion size 36. But my fandom for Kobe seemed to take a backseat when I realized that Dwyane was the closest player to him in the league and that was OUR GUY. I had to side with Dwyane and in that decision came a suppression of my fandom for Kobe Bryant. I had never connected those dots until recently because I guess I never had a reason to unpack it in this way.

But underneath the Kobe vs Wade debates that I had taken part of throughout the last 15 years, I now see that Kobe Bryant is one of my favorite players of all time.

First, he was the closest thing I had ever seen to Michael Jordan, which truthfully, I wasn’t sure I would ever see anyone similar the rest of my life. Then, as Dwyane emerged as a mega star, Bryant became the great measuring stick I used to compare my favorite athlete to ever live – Dwyane Wade – to that of the all-time greats.

When I heard the tragic news of the helicopter accident and that Bryant had died, I was in shock like we all were. Up until that moment it hadn’t occurred to me that I never even considered the possibility that Kobe Bryant, or any of these seemingly invincible, larger than life athletes could ever die.

It may sound childish and/or naive, but people like Kobe Bryant aren’t supposed to die. They live forever and we celebrate them until father time prevails.

It reminded me of my own mortality. It reminded me that the time spent with my family is all temporary and delicate. It reminded me that tomorrow isn’t promised for me or any of the people I love.

You would think with all the daily spiritual practices I am immersed in, all the subjective prayer and yoga meditation I do to maintain in fit spiritual condition, that I would be in touch with this reality. But I had fallen asleep.

And that scares me. It made me evaluate how I am spending my time.

Do I bury my face in my phone when I am around my loved ones because of Heat tweets?

Do I sacrifice being present to the moment with my family in the name of ensuring I see every second of a road game at Atlanta – all because I need to see what you are tweeting and ensure you are also engaging with my tweets?

Am I putting my relatively self-centered obsession with Heat basketball ahead of more important things, a daily decision that will one day manifest in feelings of guilt and remorse?

I know I am being irrational to a degree, but it made me take a hard look. I couldn’t ignore it.

The line between this being a healthy creative outlet and an ego trip runs directly through me.

I have friends who need friends. I have loved ones who need love. I have people in all walks of my life who need support in various ways.

So, what the hell am I doing all this for? Am I really going to make a career out of this? Is all this time worth it if it is just a hobby? Is NBA basketball even important enough to focus on?

All this squawking about Heat playoff seeding and recent losses, analyzing this GAME just seemed so empty and shallow. In a way it still does.

Then it hit me.

You do this because you love it.

You do this because you owe it to those around you to be an example to pursue what you are passionate about and just f*cking go for it. You also owe it to those same people to show them how to find this balance that has seemingly eluded me. Life is so damn short man, why not do what makes you happy and do it with intensity? Why not have the guts to find that balance?

My son is as interested in (and as knowledgeable as I am about the Heat) regarding his favorite subject- dinosaurs. He tells me every day he will grow up to be a paleontologist. And I believe him.

But what would abandoning my passion because of self centered grief say to my son when life speeds up and he may flinch at his dream of being a paleontologist?

What would it teach my children about making the most of every moment? Because the Now is all there ever is. Ever.

What would it teach them about finding a healthy balance? Something I have only learned a mere 4 years ago or so..

This thought of abandoning all my deepest passions and retreating from life – effectively cutting myself off from the world outside my own walls – was all ego masquerading as virtue.

That action would say that I was approaching life with the wrong mentality. Acting as a victim of my own inner judge. A prisoner that built my own cell. Nothing could be further from Mamba Mentality.

I don’t even know if this is 1,000 words will resonate with anyone other than myself. It damn sure is a far cry from some of the amazing stuff I have read regarding Kobe in recent weeks.

But I needed to write it. Sometimes putting pen to paper is cathartic and removes that which blocks me from the creative intelligence of the universe.

So, here is this week’s edition of Guts Check. Sorry I’ve been ghost recently– but I have been evaluating if I even had the guts myself.

Turns out I do.

“Everything negative – pressure, challenges – is all an opportunity for me to rise.” – Kobe Bryant

RIP Bean

Trocheck Trade Exemplifies State of Florida Panthers

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The trade of forward Vincent Trocheck by the Florida Panthers this week exemplifies the current state of the franchise.

After six full seasons in Sunrise, Trocheck was sent to the Carolina Hurricanes on Monday at the NHL trade deadline.

 

In year seven with the Panthers, Trocheck battled injuries and inconsistency throughout the first half.

After playing a full 82 games in both 2016 and 2017, injuries stalled Trocheck in the last two campaigns.

Trocheck appeared in 55 games for the Panthers prior to the deal, the same number he played all of last year.

He leaves with 10 goals and 16 assists, which are well below his career averages.

Trocheck had a career high 31 goals in 2017 and averaged over 26 goals per season from 2015 to 2017.

His uneven performance ultimately made him a casualty of a much needed roster shuffle.

Florida acquired forwards Erik Haula, Lucas Wallmark and Eetu Luostarinen along with defenseman Chase Priskie.

Before Carolina, Haula spent his first four years in Minnesota before joining Vegas for the last two seasons.

He appeared in 41 games for Carolina this year, tallying 12 goals and 10 assists. Haula should have an opportunity on the second and third forward lines, and has 44 games of postseason experience on his resume.

 

Wallmark was drafted in the 4th round of the 2014 NHL Draft by Carolina, the 24-year old speedy forward from Sweden has nice upside.

He appeared in 60 games for Carolina prior to the trade, with 11 goals and 12 assists so far. Wallmark can also contribute across multiple lines and along with Haula add solid depth to the forward group.

Luostarinen and Priskie are expected to report to the Springfield Thunderbirds, their AHL affiliate. Priskie is from Pembroke Pines and grew up a huge Florida Panthers fan, a nice story to say the least he gets a chance to play for his hometown team.

While these additions are solid on the surface, when four players are traded for one, typically the one is the bell of the ball.

In this case, Florida made the move while the underperforming Trocheck still held value.

Trocheck symbolized the Panthers season thus far, full of excitement and potential, while somehow far away from complete realization of it.

On paper the Panthers should be more than a fringe playoff contender, they have the components to make a legit run.

Something has been missing since the All-Star break, and changes were needed.

Trocheck was good enough to command a decent haul in return.

Yet not quite on the level where he would not become expendable.

General Manager Dale Tallon had to give Coach Joel Quenneville some flexibility and shake the roster up.

The core was too top heavy and has underproduced, perhaps some new faces will bring some energy for one last playoff push.

 

Alejandro Villegas

Launching Pad: Bam Baking, Olynyk Off-Balling, Crowder Cashing

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses

• Record: 36-20, 4th in the East (1-1)

• Offensive Rating: 112.0 (118.7)

• Defensive Rating: 108.7 (110.9)

• Net Rating: plus-3.3 (plus-7.8)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.6 (61.2)

• Pace: 99.58 (105.0)

• Time of Possession: 14.7 seconds (13.5)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo

• Minutes: 12

• Offensive Rating: 131.0

• Defensive Rating: 85.7

• Net Rating: plus-45.3

• True-Shooting Percentage: 63.7

• Pace: 114.64

The Big Number: 57

The Bam Adebayo-Duncan Robinson partnership has been a revelation for the Heat’s 8th ranked offense. Adebayo’s ability to pass and screen, paired with Robinson’s ability to shoot off movement, makes for a natural fit. Most of their two-man dances come via dribble-handoff, burning teams that dare to employ drop coverage against them.

Adebayo has assisted on 57 Robinson threes, making them the NBA’s most profitable duo. The rest of the top five, via PBP Stats:

2) Damian Lillard to CJ McCollum, 53

3) Chris Paul to Danilo Gallinari, 49

4) LeBron James to Danny Green, 47

T-4) Jrue Holiday to JJ Redick, 47

Weekly Trends

1. Bam off the bounce

If it feels like Adebayo has been covered a ton in this space, it’s because he has been.

We touched on his empowerment early in the season. We highlighted his struggles against the Sixers, and again against the Nets when they aggressively sagged off of him. We also talked about him gaining comfort as an intermediate scorer.

Now, Bam is stylin’ off the bounce.

He has basically quintupled his drive volume from last season (0.8 to 3.9) while raising his efficiency from 38.7 percent to 59.6, via Second Spectrum tracking data.

You read that right: Bam’s conversion rate has skyrocketed nearly 21 percentage points while driving five times more than he did last year.

With teams catching on to his tendency to drive baseline, he’s started to counter with in-and-out dribbles and drives from the triple threat position. This jab-and-jam sequence against Tristan Thompson was absolutely filthy.

It’s not uncommon to see Bam take the ball up the floor. Thanks to the free-flowing nature of Miami’s offense, we’ve been treated to some impromptu pick-and-roll reps.

Very quietly, Bam has generated 53 points on 50 pick-and-roll possessions (1.06 PPP, passes included), via Synergy. If you thought the James Johnson-Goran Dragic inverted two-man game was fun, imagine what Bam-led pick-and-rolls are going to look like moving forward.

At this point, three-point shooting is the only hole in Bam’s offensive game. If his work in the Skills Competition is any indication*, that’ll probably come within a year.

*It shouldn’t be, but work with me here.

2. Unlocking Kelly Olynyk

With Meyers Leonard still on the mend with an ankle injury, the Heat have leaned more on Kelly Olynyk. It’s been an up-and-down season for him, to say the least. He struggled to adjust to Miami’s offensive shift to begin the year, which made his defensive shortcomings look even more glaring.

The Heat haven’t leaned on Olynyk’s improv work like they did last season. Instead, they’ve made more of an effort to utilize his shooting. Pick-and-pop bigs already serve as kryptonite against drop schemes. When you have a guy like Olynyk flying off flare screens, you’re putting even more strain on defenses.

First off, that’s a solid (if not slightly illegal) lead block from Kendrick Nunn. Olynyk gives the subtle shove, receives the pitch and fires in one fluid motion. It’s a guard-like sequence that he makes look easy.

Olynyk has only logged four (4) off-screen possessions this season, via Synergy. He’s scored nine points on 3-of-4 shooting, including that clip above. The Heat flow out of HORNS Flare all the time. Inverting that action for Olynyk is probably something they should go to more often.

3. Jae Crowder just can’t miss

We’re only working with a five-game sample, but Jae Crowder has been Miami’s most productive acquisition from their deadline deal. He’s defended well across both forward spots, and has mostly held his own against guards on switches.

That was expected, though. Crowder has been a serviceable-at-worst defender for most of his career. The real surprise of the Crowder Experience has been his three-point shooting.

Crowder is shooting a blistering 54.8 percent from deep on 6.2 attempts. Not only are those well above his career marks (33.7 percent, 4.2 attempts), he’s feasting on a diet of shots like these:

Since joining the Heat, Crowder is generating nearly 1.3 points per spot-up possession, and over 1.6 points per transition possession via Synergy. To put those numbers into perspective, Crowder has been a more efficient shooter than JJ Redick (1.09), and has scored at a more efficient rate than Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.12 PPP).

The regression is going to come at some point, but it’s hard not to be impressed with the shot-making Crowder has provided so far.

Set Play of the Week

The Sneak Attack

Sadly, I don’t have the technical name for this one. However, Miami’s opening set against the Cavs immediately caught my eye.

The possession kicks off with a pitch to Duncan Robinson on the right wing. Nunn attempts to set a down screen for Derrick Jones Jr, but his defender (Cedi Osman) is already hanging below the free throw line. He’s able to duck under the screen, though this is mostly decoy action.

Nunn pops back up to receive the ball from Robinson, kicking off a 1-5 pick-and-roll. This is the point where the positioning matters.

This is a left-flowing pick-and-roll, which is key for two reasons.

1) Nunn is driving to his dominant hand.

2) Adebayo is rolling right, which means the only defender that could “tag” him on the roll is Collin Sexton. Who is Sexton guarding? Only the most dangerous off-movement shooter in the league right now.

Sexton naturally drops for a second. He quickly realizes that Adebayo isn’t rolling to the basket. Adebayo cuts his roll short before setting a screen for Robinson to pop out to the top of the key.

You already know how it ends.

Tyson Fury v. Deontay Wilder II…. a Preview

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Where to watch: Saturday, Saturday, February 22, 2020, MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, Available on ESPN+ PPV/ FOX PPV.

A very skeptical public watched Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder meet each other at Staples Center on December 1st, 2018. Skeptical due to Wilder being thought of as “second best” to at the time, UK super star Anthony Joshua. Skeptical due to Tyson Fury coming back from a bout with depression, drug addiction, and not looking very good in a couple of tune ups after his triumph over lineal Heavyweight Champion Wladimir Klitschko. The fighters earned guaranteed purses of $4 million for Wilder and $3 million for Fury. A pittance historically, for heavyweight championship standards. The event reportedly drew a mere 325,000 PPV buys. To say that there wasn’t much of a buzz for that fight is an understatement.

Fight fans knew better. There was a certain intrigue to see the consummate boxer in Tyson Fury attempt to “dance through the rain drops” versus the hardest puncher in boxing, in Deontay Wilder. Handicapping the bout at the time, it was clear that Tyson Fury held a substantial skill edge while the power belonged to Wilder. So, if Fury could manage to stay upright for 12 rounds he would win a decision. What a fight. Tyson Fury as promised, put on a clinic, with a well thought out game plan that consisted of a stiff and accurate Jab with movement that provided a puzzle that Deontay Wilder could not solve. But, Wilder has the best eraser in the game (and possibly of all-time) in his right hand. The embarrassment of those first 8 rounds, where I gave 6 rounds to Fury and did not give him the other 2, only because Fury took breathers, and gave away 2 rounds to rest, was quickly forgotten, when Deontay lands a Jab, then a clubbing right hand, Fury loses his balance, and now we have a fight! From that point on, you could feel the tension that was in Staples Center coming through the TV screen. Round 10 kicks off with Wilder on the hunt, but he can’t find Fury with any of his punches. In fact, he lands only 1 of 39 punches according to the in arena punch stats. Fury on the other hand is masterful, and the rout is back on, as his stiff jab is telling the tale. He banks round 11, and surely, all he has to do is survive 3 minutes, and he is once again, not only the lineal Heavyweight Champion of the world, but now he has the hardware to prove it (He vacated his titles).

Round 12

Boxing, more than any other sport, lends itself to memorable moments that live on through the ages. George Foreman regaining his crown after 20 years had passed from his bout with Ali in Zaire. Marvin Hagler and Thomas Hearns actually going through with all their “WAR” pre-fight hype. Duran-Leonard. Bowe-Holyfield. Tyson Fury rising from the DEAD. It belongs. Round 12, begins like any other, till, Left Jab, right hand, left hook. Tyson Fury is out. He is not getting up. But, he is. Inexplicably. Wilder goes on the hunt, but Fury then proceeds to win the rest of the round. That the end result was a draw, was inconsequential. We got our money’s worth, and it was clear who the best two heavyweights in the world were. The rematch was sure to come, and after a very eventful set of fights for Tyson Fury and two spectacular knockouts from Wilder, we are here.

So how does this fight set up? Somewhat similar, but there is some nuance. Tyson Fury now knows he has to make Wilder pay in their exchanges, and can’t rest on just a jab. Wilder now knows he has to use his jab to break up Fury’s rhythm. Both now know that what they did last time is not good enough on this Saturday night in Las Vegas.

How does Tyson Fury win?

No way around it. He has to once again dance through the rain drops, while also mounting a more significant offense. He has to also avoid ducking his head after exchanges, and must always remain every bit of his 6′-9″ and not lower his head unnecessarily, so he doesn’t make it easy for Wilder to find his target. A jab and grab strategy should work in here, but most importantly, Fury has to be busy when Wilder starts to set his feet (Wilder tends to set both feet before combinations). He has to go against his instincts that tell him to escape right after a successful combination. He has to press his advantages when he has them, and must degrade Wilder’s power by making him expend energy in defending himself. Don’t let him carry his power to the later rounds. I don’t believe he can win by knockout, becasue that would entail taking many risks that could lead to unconsciousness, but he can win a decisive unanimous decision.

How does Deontay Wilder win?

He can’t win a decision, without some help from the judges, simply because he needs knockdowns to gain rounds on Fury, because he is not the skilled fighter here. He has built his 42-0 record with his 41 knockouts by hunting from the opening bell while also giving away rounds in order to find his opponent with a counter, or have them weaken themselves fighting a high stress fight. Trust me, fighting Wilder has to be the most stressful thing in sports. You can literally watch yourself dominate Wilder with your skill, and showcase the superiority of your craft, then you find yourself in the dressing room asking what had happened (that happened). Wilder in this fight must hunt smartly. Follow Fury through his escape and employ different angles to attack Fury’s defenses. If he dares to duck away to avoid a combination, include a uppercut. If he escapes to his right, throw left hooks, and vice versa. He cannot let Fury rest and gather himself after exchanges. Pressure must be applied, and it can be something as easy as jabbing Fury’s arms, or shooting feints, followed by jabs to score and get Fury moving. Above all, patience. If you are busy, not in punch volume, but mere activity, the knockdown/out should come. It has come in 41 of 43 fights, and the one draw, you dropped this very opponent twice.

Prediction: The Betdsi Betting line has Deontay Wilder as the slight favorite at -118. Tyson Fury is at -102. The over/under in rounds is at 10.5. I see this fight being a much more technical affair, and Wilder hunting effectively, knocking Tyson Fury out at the every edge of the Over/under. I have Deontay Wilder by knockout in Round 10.

Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.

Examining the Miami Heat’s Young Core

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All-Star Weekend was a busy one for the Miami Heat.

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were the headliners, becoming the first pair of Heat teammates since LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to grace the All-Star game floor.

Adebayo added a Skills Challenge trophy to his cabinet — and some money to Butler’s ongoing three-point tab. Between that and Butler ethering the Raptors, it’s safe to say the Heat stars showed out.

Beyond that, the Heat were able to put some of their “others” on display. Tyler Herro was set to play in the Rising Stars game, but an ank- er, foot — injury during Miami’s blow-out win over the 76ers knocked him out.

Kendrick Nunn was there to carry the mantle, scoring 16 points in Team USA’s 151-131 victory.

Duncan Robinson represented the Heat in the three-point contest, though his score (19) underwhelmed relative to his regular season success.

The winner of the weekend, as controversial as it may be, was Derrick Jones Jr. To say he entered the weekend confident would be a massive understatement.

Jones Jr. didn’t quite live up to his nothing-but-50s prediction, but he was able to bring the title home over Aaron Gordon. Not only did he rack up high scores in the contest, he was able to secure a shoe deal with Puma to cap off his weekend.

Now, the real fun starts. The Heat (35-19) have 28 games left to build up good habits and solidify their rotation. They’re currently the 4th seed — a fine place considering their competition, and in line with their preseason goals for home court advantage.

“We’re getting to the point of the season where the rubber’s kinda meeting the road,” Duncan Robinson tells Five Reason Sports over the weekend.

“We no longer want to be that ‘fun’ team or whatever. We want to push into that next level. With the playoffs on the horizon, our main focus is to position ourselves the best that we can.”

This also serves as an important stretch for the Heat’s young guys. The Heat need them for the playoff push, sure. But if we know anything about Pat Riley, it’s that he’ll push the chips to the middle of the table for a bonafide star.

The Heat are set to make splashes in each of the next two summers. If maneuvering is needed, some of the young pieces will be casualties, for lack of a better phrase.

With that, let’s take stock of the Heat’s young gunners.

Tyler Herro

Key stats: 13.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 39.3 percent from 3 (5.5 attempts)

Current role: Floor spacer, secondary creator

This one will be brief.

The Heat love Herro, their bleep-you, guard-me-if-you-can rookie with some big moments under his belt. He’s been better than, um, some people have anticipated. His offensive feel, three-point shooting, intermediate touch, and pick-and-roll chops are positives already. As he continues to adjust to NBA speed and physicality, Herro should shine playing off the Butler-Adebayo combo.

The defense is a bit of a problem. His off-ball instincts are fine, but the lack of length and burst — lateral and vertical — limits his ceiling on the ball. Miami has been a better team with Herro on the bench. That isn’t a massive indictment — it’s normal for rookies — but his defense is worth monitoring.

Status: (virtually) untouchable

Herro has been taken off the table in trade talks. Bradley Beal, a “former” Heat target, is probably the worst player the Heat would consider trading Herro for.

In short, unless a top-10 player that is 28 or younger becomes available, Herro is going to be a member of the Heat.

Kendrick Nunn

Key stats: 15.3 points, 3.5 assists, 34.1 percent from 3 (5.7 attempts)

Current role: secondary creator

Nunn kicked off the season on fire. He scored from all three levels offensively, and consistently blew up ball-screens on the other end. The makings of a two-way terror were on display; the Rookie of the Year award was heading to Miami.

Then, we hit November.

Nunn started getting back-cut. The missed passing windows become more egregious. The three-point shooting regressed a bit. He was still fine — good, by rookie standards — but some of the allure wore off.

Now, Nunn is working his way back from an Achilles injury. It’s been rough lately — 9.9 points with a 30/24/80 shooting split over his last seven games — but we shouldn’t lose sight of what Nunn is, and how far he’s come.

His three-level scoring chops are still legit. You can trust him to take the right shot against Drop coverage. His comfort around the elbows with jumpers or floaters will be important against teams like Philadephia. The game has slowed down a bit, evidenced by his moderate bump in assist-to-turnover ratio since December 1st (1.5 to 2.4).

Like Herro, Nunn is still a bit of a screen magnet defensively. It’s a bigger issue because he’s at the point of attack, and the Heat have been squishy on the interior. Him becoming a competent screen navigator is wildly important to his ceiling.

Status: important but movable

Nunn is the kind of secondary scorer the Heat need alongside Butler, who is more battering ram than pull-up artist. The Heat were also reportedly willing to include Nunn in a three-team deal that would’ve netted them Danilo Gallinari.

In short: Nunn is a prime candidate to be cashed in.

It’s important to note that there is no real attachment to Nunn; he was an end-of-season signing that has blown up more than anyone could’ve reasonably projected. He serves an important role, but selling high for an established guy isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Duncan Robinson

Key stats: 12.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 43.8 percent from 3 (8.1 attempts)

Current role: off-ball weapon

Robinson is, at worst, a top five shooter in the NBA. He’s nearly automatic on catch-and-shoot looks, and is Ellington-esque as an off-movement shooter. The Heat leverage his marksmanship by involving him in countless dribble-handoffs, and using him as a low screener to flummox defenses.

Before the season, Erik Spoelstra said Robinson was one of the best shooters in the world, and that it was up to him to prove it.

It’s, uh, safe to say he’s proven it this season.

Status: important

Robinson is arguably Miami’s most important offensive player. Their offensive rating drops over seven points with Robinson on the bench. He’s their best weapon against drop coverage; his off-movement shooting via dribble-handoffs put defenses in impossible situations.

As good as Robinson is offensively, he’s just as much of a mess defensively. Teams have begun to pick on him more aggressively, and that will ramp up during the playoffs. The Heat desperately need to become average — or slightly below — to fully maximize him.

Even with that, it’s hard to imagine Robinson being expendable. He’s essentially a 6’8 Ellington with more passing chops. The Heat have the defenders to flank Robinson with — Butler, Adebayo, Andre Iguodala, and Jae Crowder to name a few. If Herro or Nunn hold their weight as on-ball defenders, the Heat can probably survive with Robinson as the only minus defender on the floor.

Derrick Jones Jr.

Key stats: 8.7 points, 4.2 rebounds (1.0 offensive), 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks

Current role: Defensive specialist, freelance-4

The champ is here!

[insert drums here]

The champ is here!

Miami’s confident high flyer finally has the hardware to solidify himself as the game’s most absurd dunker.

Jones Jr. is more than a dunker, though. He’s a prolific offensive rebounder, sneaky-good half-court finisher (1.29 PPP, 79th percentile via Synergy), and a bit of a terror defensively. We know what Jones Jr. does in Miami’s zone, but his on-ball defense has improved immensely from last season.

Jones Jr. still feels a bit incomplete offensively. His handle is improved, but still loose. The footwork on drives gets a bit iffy. The jumper, or lack thereof, is the canyon-sized hole that needs to be closed. For what it’s worth, he recognizes that his jumper will unlock everything.

“If I have to choose one thing [to work on], it’s my jumper,” Jones Jr tells Five Reasons Sports.

“I have the ball-handling to do what I want. I have the athleticism to do what I want. Once I get that shot — I got it — but when it gets consistent, that’s a wrap.”

We shall see.

Status: safe for now

From my view, Jones Jr has been the most expendable part of the Heat’s young core precisely because of his offensive skill set. He doesn’t quite handle the ball well enough to play the 3, and isn’t a good enough shooter to provide real value as a stretch-ish 4.

To his credit, he’s done a fantastic job of using gaps to his advantage. More space from the perimeter has allowed him to build up runways for putback slams. He’s a smart guy off the ball, and that’s valuable.

The Heat deciding to trade Justise Winslow and hang onto Jones Jr, a free agent this summer, should be seen as a vote of confidence. They like what he brings to the table, and believe in how hard he works. If the shot does come around, the Heat may just have their 4 of the future.

 

Jonathan Villar, right, works with Isan Diaz on the first day of spring training. Villar, an infielder, could end up in center field. (Craig Davis for Five Reasons Sports)

Pressure Point: Are rebuilding Marlins ready to take step to relevance?

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JUPITER

Welcome to Camp Optimism, which is a most unfamiliar moniker for Miami Marlins spring training.

It’s not full-blown optimism, mind you, in the sense of, hey, we’re ready to kick ass like a genuine big fish.

That would be absurd for a team coming off a 105-loss season, and that’s not what’s going on here. That mindset is reserved for the team housed on the opposite side of the Roger Dean Stadium complex — the Cardinals, who find a way to be a factor year after year.

For the Marlins, this year is about hope and finally the expectation of beginning to rise out of the malaise of a lost decade. That is fueled by the belief that the franchise is finally moving away from the clown show of the past.

“It’s time for us to move forward,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said Monday on the first day of full-squad workouts at spring training. “There will be disappointment if we don’t make measurable gains this year.”

Rebuilding plan faces test

Owner Bruce Sherman actually took a swipe at the way previous ownership operated, saying, “I don’t want to have up and downs, up and downs. That’s a silly way to run a baseball club.”

Of course, the Sherman/Derek Jeter regime began two years ago by trading away all of the team’s All-Stars and big names in embarking on a bottom-up rebuild.

The turnover is evident. There are only five players on the roster who were here in 2017; Miguel Rojas and Brian Anderson are the lone position players who were on the team when Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna comprised the then-best outfield in baseball.

Keep in mind, the Marlins never won more than they lost with that group. There is no guarantee this approach will work either, of restocking the farm system and waiting for the tide of young talent to elevate the product in Miami.

Michael Hill, Marlins president of baseball operations, dodged a question about how much improvement in the win column would be reasonable to expect.

Hill did say, “Now a lot of that upper level talent is on the 40-man roster. Once that happens, it’s only opportunity at that point.”

Hence, Hill’s message to the young prospects: “Go out and let your talent shine. If you’ve got it, flaunt it. Let it go. Go have fun … and give yourself every opportunity to show what you’re capable of doing.”

Uphill climb in NL East

Mattingly took that message a step further to the identity of team he’s trying to assemble: “We want a club that starts to exude that confidence, starts to show a little bit of swagger and starts to have a little push back and expectation that we’re better than this if we’re not playing well.”

These Marlins must push these aspirations in the NL East against the defending World Series champion Nationals, the division champion Braves whose young prospects are already blossoming into stars, a well-armed Mets team and a Phillies team spending money like they’re printing it.

Most of the young players the Marlins are counting on for the foundation of the mantra Sherman and Co. have adopted of “sustainable winning” haven’t been tested about the Double A level.

To me, what this season will be about for the Marlins is seeing some the touted talent reaching Miami and providing the first indication whether they are as good as advertised. At the top of the list would be starting pitchers such as Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Jorge Guzman and Nick Neidert.

If success is on the horizon it will be built on the young arms, which Hill noted are ahead of the top hitting prospects in the organization. The hope is that some of the bats they are pinning hopes on will show progress toward legitimacy, at least in the upper levels of the minors.

Meanwhile, there are a few more accomplished major-league hitters in camp with the offseason additions of Jonathan Villar, Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar and Matt Kemp (on a minor-league contract).

Villar odd choice for center field

The one curious bit of news from Day 1 was Mattingly saying that Villar would get a serious look initially in center field during spring training.

Villar played 162 games last year for the Baltimore Orioles. Primarily a second baseman, he didn’t appear in the outfield in any of them. He has started in center field in just six of 785 big-league games.

His chances of playing in every game again this season would seem greatly diminished if he is asked to cover the vast expanse of center field at Marlins Park, particularly with the addition of artificial turf this season.

Dickerson, slated for left field, played on similar turf at Tampa Bay.

Regarding the toll it takes, Dickerson said, “Your shins, your back, things you’ve got to get used to. It’s definitely going to hurt teams coming in and not getting over that first couple of days. They’re kind of sore right away. We have to figure out ways to stay on top of it to make sure your body is optimal and ready to go.”

For his part, Villar said, “I’m here for the team. If they want me to play centerfield, I’ll try,” though his face conveyed some doubt.

Meanwhile, Villar spent the first day working at second base along with rookie Isan Diaz.

This will be an issue that bears watching as Camp Optimism progresses.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Miami Dolphins should draft BYU safety Austin Lee

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This column was written by Marcos Chisholm. Follow him on Twitter @marcosgchisholm.

In possession of the 18th and 26th picks in the first round of the NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins are expected to pursue an offensive lineman and a safety. But if they instead opt to target secondary talent after day one of the draft, BYU safety Austin Lee can emerge as a highly effective, under-the-radar pickup.

“I always dreamed and felt that I could play in the NFL,” Lee said. “It felt more a reality as I got to my senior year and my second game in versus Tennessee was a big-time game which I played well in. It was then I realized I’m getting closer to my dreams.”

Even in a talented draft class where Alabama’s Xavier McKinney and LSU’s Grant Delpit rank among the best safeties, Lee’s resume and skill set afford him credibility and indicate he could very well add to the chemistry in Miami’s hybrid defense.

The defensive standout’s clutch performance in an overtime victory against the Volunteers last September served as a turning point in his collegiate career. Lee was recently ranked 86th on PFF’s 101 Best College Football Players of 2019 list after finishing among the top twenty FBS safeties in categories such as overall grade (15th), coverage grade (16th), and yards allowed (7th). Most notably, Lee allowed zero touchdowns throughout last year, a rare feat for players on the field for more than 300 snaps in a single season. The Cougars only allowed 46 plays of 20 yards or more with Lee’s help last season.

While BYU’s system can potentially limit the duties of defensive backs by dropping eight players into coverage, Lee’s self-awareness and efficient movements help him make up for a lack of explosiveness that higher-ranked draft prospects tout. He becomes unpredictable on the field because his high football IQ does not require him to solely commit to either playing the run or deep passes.

“I feel like I have my own game. But I model a lot of what I do through seeing Eric Weddle and Jamal Adams. I love the instincts, toughness, IQ, and physicality that those guys play with,” Lee said. “They both are just competitors and play with such tenacity.”

Lee’s modern-day football role models play with strikingly different styles at the safety position. However, he takes the best from both worlds in a way that suits Miami’s positionless defensive scheme. Hybrid systems demand dynamic players, and his ability to teeter between the traditional roles of free and strong safeties as the game evolves can make him an invaluable asset.

Yet there’s no certainty of what changes to the Dolphins’ defensive scheme will come next season. Patrick Graham, Miami’s defensive coordinator in 2019, officially joined the New York Giants as an assistant coach last month. Former Dolphins cornerbacks coach Josh Boyer was internally promoted to Graham’s previous role, and safeties coach Tony Oden was fired from Brian Flores’ staff in January before being replaced by Curt Kuntz.

And Lee — who has never adhered to the traditional roles of a two-man safety dynamic — has strategically modeled his game for the 2020s and beyond. In spite of his mediocre athleticism, his focus on fluidity and adaptability have allowed him to fit into every scheme he has played for. But considering Dolphins safeties Rashad Jones and Bobby McCain already have uncertain futures in Miami, scouts and draft analysts may question what Lee would bring different to the table.

Ultimately, it’s his life off-the-field that encapsulates why he can bring value to many NFL teams. After initially signing to play for BYU rival Utah in 2012, Lee went on a multimonth LDS mission to Oklahoma that forced him to miss an entire season. He then fell in love with his wife, Kortnie, and married her in 2015. And in between transferring schools and playing Division I football, the couple parent their two kids, Ledger and Romee.

The selfless approach that comes from starting a family is the same one that fuels his ability to be a leader for his teammates. “I feel like my leadership capability can be high,” Lee said. “I lead through example and when something needs to be said I say something. The best teams are player-led and leadership is huge.”

Above all else, Miami has lacked leadership on defense that can help build a new culture under Brian Flores. When considering Miami’s off-the-field issues in the last decade, it will be imperative that the Dolphins draft talent for reasons beyond a prospect’s athleticism and playmaking abilities. Not only can Lee’s proven habits foster the growth of a locker room that lacks a dependable player voice — but they have an opportunity to provide him the chance to last longer than the average NFL player.

Panthers coach Joel Quenneville focuses on the positives from opening-night loss to Lightning. (Craig Davis for Five Reasons Sports)

A rough patch or just more of the same?

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The Florida Panthers find themselves in a very familiar place: on the outside looking in. At 29-20-6 the Panthers find themselves 2 points back of the third playoff spot for the Atlantic division and 5 points behind for a wildcard spot.
In most cases, you might be okay with this as a Panthers fan. In years of Panthers past, you could even say you’d be satisfied. With 27 games left, the Panthers control their own destiny to get back in to the playoffs.

That may be the root of the problem.

This year is suppose to be different. This was the year everything was suppose to change. For the most part, they have. The Panthers used most of their cap room in the off-season. They signed the biggest goalie free agent. They got into a room with Artemi Panarin. They hired arguably one of the five best coaches in NHL history in Joel Quenneville. The pieces were filled to sorrowing the core, a problem they’ve needed to fix for years. The winning culture was in place.

For the first half of the season, we saw the changes. The value signings the Panthers made were paying dividends. Noel Acciari has 18 goals. Brett Connolly has 17. Daddanov has 23. This led to early success, for the most part of the first half of the season, the Panthers held or were within 4 points of a playoff spot. Going into the all-star break, the Panthers were playing their best hockey, winning 6 straight games. Going into the break, the Panthers were 4 points up on Toronto for third in the Atlantic and only trailed Tampa by a point.

Due to the All-Star break and the scheduled bye week, the Panthers went 10+ days without playing a game after the winning streak.

Since the All Star break, it has been a much different start. The Panthers are 1-4-1 and have been out scored 22-10 in that time span. They’ve lost about 5 points in the wild card race and 6 in the division. Though, they still have a game in hand so we’ll call it 4. 

With the trade deadline coming up, you can almost expect the Panthers will be buyers. Dale Tallon will be aggressive to make sure this team gets in. The Panthers are starved for upgrading their defensive line. They have assets, picks and prospects to try to swing a deal. Or they may use their NHL talent on the offensive side of the puck to get a defensive. Whatever way they do it, they need to make a move.

If the 2019-2020 Panthers want to separate themselves from past Panthers teams, the turnaround needs to start now. The Panthers play a last place Devils team tonight, a big wild card swing game on Thursday vs the Flyers and the Oilers. 5 of 6 points might be necessary for them.

These next few games will see if the culture has changed for Panthers hockey, or we will see if they are heading towards missing the playoffs again for the 18th time in the last 20 years.

For the sake of the Panthers, we hope this is just a rough patch and we see them playing hockey in mid-April.   

Launching Pad: Shiny New Toys, Duncan’s Gravity, DJJ’s Jumper

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses

• Record: 34-18, 4th in the East (1-3)

• Offensive Rating: 111.9 (116.7)

• Defensive Rating: 108.6 (116.7)

• Net Rating: plus-3.3 (net-zero)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.5 (57.8)

• Pace: 99.28 (97.25)

• Time of Possession: 14.8 seconds (14.5)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Derrick Jones Jr., Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk

• Minutes: 13

• Offensive Rating: 200.0 (?????????????????????????)

• Defensive Rating: 103.8

• Net Rating: plus-96.2 (????????????????????????????????????)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 86.8 (!!!!!!!!!?!?!??!!?!?!?!!?!!!!!?!????????)

• Pace: 99.05

The Big Number: 0.966

The Heat’s defense remains a question mark. They rank 14th in the league in defensive rating (108.6), which is well below the standard that Erik Spoelstra — and especially Pat Riley — has set for the club. That factoid seems to be, at least, the second biggest reason for their trade deadline deal for a trio of wing defenders.

The Heat are currently allowing 0.966 points per possession in man via Synergy, which ranks 15th in the league. Perfectly average. They’ve been better in zone (0.94 PPP, 7th), though the gap closing is why there was a desperate need for reinforcements.

The hope is that the new additions help shore up things in man. Better containment on the perimeter should lead to less breakdowns on the back end, and less three-pointers allowed. Beyond that, more success in man would allow the Heat to deploy their zone as a change of pace, more than a necessity to hide bad defenders.

Weekly Trends

1. Heat have options

Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, and James Johnson are gone.

Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, and Solomon Hill* are here.

With that, the Heat have some shiny toys in the chest for Coach Spo to play with.

Iguodala — no, I’m not calling him “Iggy” and you shouldn’t either — and Crowder made their debuts on Sunday night against the Portland Trail Blazers. The duo combined for 20 points, 17 rebounds, and six assists off the bench. Both players had positive plus-minuses, for those who care about that sort of thing.

Iguodala (2-6-3-1-1) didn’t have a huge box score night, but he made the kind of subtle plays that will earn Spo’s trust. Take this possession for example.

 

Iguodala pushes after a miss, then flows into a dribble handoff with Crowder. Nothing’s there, so the offense resets with a 1-5 pick-and-roll. As the ball screen takes place, Iguodala notices CJ McCollum ball-watching, so he sets a blind pick for Crowder in the corner.

McCollum eventually recovers and contests the shot, but that specific read highlights Iguodala’s IQ. He may not be the best scorer or shooter, but he understands how to attack — and in this case, create — cracks in defenses that others can exploit.

While Iguodala had more of a subtly good performance, Crowder (18-11-2-3-1) did … quite a bit. If there’s a sequence that embodies the Crowder Experience, it’d be this run late in the second quarter:

Crowder had himself a day, particularly in the second half. He provided rugged on-ball defense and enough hustle to dust off the “Culture” hashtag. More eye-poppingly, Crowder drilled five of his eight triples, marking the ninth time in his career that he’s made at least five threes in a game.

The idea of Crowder and Iguodala closing out games, as they did on Sunday night, will hinge almost solely on their ability to knock down shots from outside. They have to keep defenses honest to opening up driving lanes for Jimmy Butler, whenever he returns from his shoulder issue. Crowder passed the smell test on Sunday; Iguodala didn’t, though he made so many plays that it didn’t matter much.

Keep an eye out on Crowder specifically. With Olynyk continuing to struggle defensively, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Spo experiment with a Crowder-Bam Adebayo frontcourt to kick off games.

2. Duncan Robinson, using fear as an asset

Robinson has established himself as one of the NBA’s best shooters. He’s elite off the catch, and a flame thrower firing off of screens. Robinson is especially effective operating in dribble handoffs, generating nearly 1.5 points per possession (98th percentile).

Teams know that Robinson only needs a sliver of space to fire, which puts incredible strain on the defenders tasked with shutting down those handoffs. If Robinson’s man is trailing, it’s up to the big (or whoever) to show high and cut off that window. But that’s becoming a death sentence as well.

Robinson averaged 3.0 assists last week. That isn’t a lot, but it’s a pretty sizable bump from his season average. It’s also notable because a lot of them looked like this:

And this:

Robinson has become a bit of an offense onto his own, similar to how Wayne Ellington was during his stint in Miami. Except, you know, with more size and even more passing feel.

3. Derrick Jones Jr’s hot streak

When the Heat traded Winslow, it was mostly for present contributions and future flexibility. It’s the Riley MO, as we all know. But very quietly, it was a vote of confidence for Derrick Jones Jr, a tweener forward with a budding skill set.

It’s a bit of a gamble. His catch radius on lobs remains absurd. There’s been tangible growth from him as a finisher in the half court. Those are fine skills in a vacuum, but the jumper is the real swing skill for him.

Jones Jr. is shooting 28.6 percent from deep on the season, and 27.1 percent from the corners. Those numbers obviously won’t cut it if he wants to be more than an exciting rotation piece that can get schemed out of a playoff series.

It’s why his hot streak from three — 53.3 percent last week, 47.6 percent over his last eight games — couldn’t have come at a better time. Teams still largely ignore him from beyond the arc, but he’s taking (and making) enough in rhythm to force defenses to at least think about him. That’s a win for him, and the Heat.

Set Play of the Week

HORNS Slice, with a twist

Whew, baby, is there a lot going on here.

 

The Heat kick things off with an Iverson cut for Olynyk — watch as he cuts across a couple of screens — before settling into (some semblance of) their HORNS alignment.

Kendrick Nunn enters the ball into Adebayo, and then the real fun begins.

Nunn clears, while Robinson sets a screen for Jones Jr. Bogdan Bogdonovic gets caught on the screen, leaving Buddy Hield in limbo. If he continues to chase Robinson, Jones Jr. is open for a lob. Instead, he hangs back, which allows Robinson to pop up for three.

Harry Giles steps up to help while Bogdonovic recovers. Adebayo reads this and slips to the basket. After receiving the pass, Adebayo is faced with a 2-on-1; Hield steps up, presenting a passing window for Jones Jr, or a rather glaring mismatch inside.

Adebayo takes advantage of the latter, finishing with a leaning layup over the sharpshooter.

As mentioned in the second section, the threat of Robinson as a shooter terrifies defenses. His screen for Jones Jr. is what sets up the entire chain reaction.

Justise Winslow in Miami, promise unfulfilled

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The Justise Winslow era wasn’t supposed to go like this.

When he fell to the 10th pick in 2015, the consensus was that Pat Riley and the Miami Heat got the steal of the draft in the form of a teenage wing with promising offensive potential and rare defensive versatility. He was a champion, a product of the Duke program that the Heat organization has been so fond of. Under the tutelage of Dwyane Wade Justise was supposed to blossom into stardom and take the torch from his mentor, leading the team into the next era.

None of that worked out quite right. After an impressive rookie year his mentor left, injuries cut his sophomore season short, a crowded backcourt forced him to play out of position more frequently than was preferable, and the holes in his offensive game made it difficult to fit him back into a rotation that was largely constructed in his absence.

 

 

When he was on the floor and not squeezed into an awkward spot in the lineup, he was undeniably good. He had his shortcomings, sure, but his defense was as good as advertised and his playmaking ability shocked a lot of fans. Before the acquisition of Jimmy Butler there wasn’t a player on the team who could make some of the passes Justise made with relative consistency. Winslow made huge strides as a shooter in a relatively short amount of time, and at times it looked like he was becoming the borderline all star everyone wanted him to be. If he had been able to stay on the court for a prolonged period he would’ve been incredibly valuable to a young competitive Heat team that struggles to defend the perimeter at time. Unfortunately, for Justise, that was a huge if.

 

Justise Winslow hasn’t had one recurring injury that would raise a huge red flag like in the case of Greg Oden or Joel Embiid (who has been successful despite health concerns), and it is difficult to know how serious his recent injuries are. What we do know is that he couldn’t stay on the floor for an extended stretch and it didn’t look like that was going to change in the near future. As fans and media members, we can talk about whether what they got back in the Grizzlies trade was an adequate return but, at a certain point, that’s all irrelevant. It has become clear that the Justise Winslow era in Miami ended some time before Pat Riley got on the phone with the Memphis front office. To fault either party for the deterioration of the relationship would require knowledge we don’t have. The only certainty is that the relationship was over.

 

The Grizzlies got a great young talent. If Justise Winslow thrives in Memphis, it should be a surprise to nobody. But his shortcomings as an off-ball offensive talent will always make it complicated to cleanly slot him into a rotation and Pat Riley understandably decided that a competitive Miami team didn’t have the time to continually work the oft-injured Winslow back into a rotation that is running relatively smoothly. Memphis is still young, they can afford to have the patience that a player like Justise necessitates.

 

Many Miami Heat fans (myself included) were attached to Winslow. He’s a promising, personable young player who has been refreshingly open about his mental health. Any success he has in Memphis should delight the fans who loved him. It should not necessarily serve as an indictment of the Heat organization. Miami needed the flexibility and Justise Winslow needed the fresh start. Best of luck to both parties.