Complexity of a Jrue Holiday fit for the Miami Heat

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What the hell are the Miami Heat this season? Are they a contender? A feel good story? A team waiting for 2021? All of that? It’s weird, they are weird and with greater expectations comes urgency.

And that changes everything.

The Heat are loaded with contracts that make it easy to match any star player they would want, they have young attractive rotation players and now they are heavily linked to Pelicans guard, Jrue Holiday. For the Heat is the star guard worth cashing their chips?

The answer is kinda complicated and it doesn’t come without risks. Holiday has a 2021 player option for $26 million and should he opt in it will leave Miami without a max slot for the summer of Giannis. On the flip side, Miami could be a move or two away from the Finals and that’s all this organization wants. A chance. A shot at the title. 

The framework around the deal is the elephant in the room. If it does happen it’s conceivable that the package would include Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow and other salary to match. Considering the Heat are up against hard cap, it will take careful maneuvering and perhaps even a third team involved in any trade. It’s been said that the deal would have to include Tyler Herro which might be the deal breaker for the Heat. However if Pat Riley, cap wizard Andy Elisburg and company can negotiate around that, would the move make basketball sense? The question then becomes: does the move put them over the top into the conversation for the Finals?

Start here: Holiday isn’t a plus shooter by any means. His last three seasons, his three point percentages have been 34, 33 and 34. Playing him alongside Bam Adebayo, who doesn’t space the floor, could really limit the Heat’s offense down the stretch. Holiday would likely be a catch and shoot option in late game offense with Jimmy Butler triggering sets and Holiday is at just 34 percent on catch and shoot threes this season, consistent with his overall shooting. Thus, playing Adebayo, Holiday and Jimmy Butler (28 percent from three this season) in crunch time, as would be the case every night, would create spacing trouble. 

Naturally, it’s important to note that Justise Winslow is struggling this season even more than Holiday this season from deep, at 23 percent. Without question, Holiday is an offensive upgrade to Winslow.

I don’t think it can be argued that adding a recent All-Star and All-Defensive Team player would hurt the Miami Heat. Holiday makes them better no question, but losing two ball handlers for one brings Miami’s margin for error down significantly and Winslow’s size allows the Heat to be a more versatile defensive team. It’s a give and take that ultimately probably nets positive.

There are some concerns offensively but you trust that stars will figure those out, while you lose an elite wing defender you gain one at guard. Holiday would most likely move Kendrick Nunn to a bench role similar to what was being asked of Goran Dragic, to score in bunches and protect leads. The Heat would ask Derrick Jones Jr. to defend bigger wings more often, so long as he’s not part of a trade package. They still might be a wing defender short come playoff time, with names like Simmons, Harris, Brogdon, Giannis, Middleton, Siakam, Brown, Tatum, Hayward on the list of players Winslow would be asked to defend. Is Jones Jr. the playoff answer for that? 

Risking 2021 cap space for what would be Miami’s third best player also raises questions and this is why the move isn’t so cut and dry. This season the Heat have one shot at a needle-moving player because Dragic’s 19 million expiring contract is the big thing that would help them match salary and Winslow is the one attractive young piece the Heat might move. Saving these for a better player than Holiday might be the way to go, but it’s also possible a better player doesn’t become available. 

This team hasn’t been healthy lately as well, and to make knee jerk moves when their third and fourth best players have been out is premature. Without the extra ballhandlers Miami has been easier to defend, depending significantly on dribble-hand off sets and shooters hitting off the curls. It’s a far cry from the Heat’s Horns-heavy motion offense which feature multiple dribble and shooting threats that had Miami’s offense humming. 

It’s unlikely this trade alone puts them over the Sixers or the Bucks and it might come at the expense of 2021 if Holiday opts in. There is an argument to be made that with so many teams having cap space he would try for one last payday. Yet it’s still a risk that he punts on that or an injury would compel him to opt in. Theoretically the Heat can ask him to opt out and bring him back over the cap with his Bird Rights. So there are angles the Heat can play if things break their way. 

With the Heat ahead of schedule and Butler having a timer on his prime there is now a sense of urgency that wasn’t with the Heat in October. Even if they don’t make a move they still sit half a game out the two seed in the East (and half a game out of sixth), with a star, talented young players and a max salary slot in 2021. There are worse positions to be in and the Heat have to look in the mirror and decide what gambles are worth taking for the short term at the expense of 2021 flexibility.  The clock is ticking. To Jrue or not Jrue, that is the question. There’s no easy answer. 

 

Giancarlo Navas (@GNavas103) is the host of Miami Heat Beat.

Chris Grier isn't a perfect general manager, but he does not deserve to be fired.

Jake’s Take: Which veteran quarterback makes the most sense for the Miami Dolphins?

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Could a veteran quarterback be the right route for the Dolphins?

After a season of “tank for Tua” chants we are starting to get clarity on the 2020 draft class. There are concerns swarming around Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. Not only does teams have to worry about his hip, but now he may not even declare for the 2020 draft. 

The Dolphins have shown what Brian Flores, Chad O’Shea and the coaching staff is capable of with a few wins. It meant Miami lost a chance at Heisman winner Joe Burrow, who will likely go to the Bengals first overall.

Our thoughts on the draft class have changed since week one. That is why it is important to let a season play out. Mock drafts have the Dolphins taking Tagovailoa, but he may need more than a year to recover. Brian Flores, as recently as Monday, said that his team is determined to win football games.

Miami could invest a valuable first round pick on a huge risk like Tagovailoa or reach at someone like Justin Herbert. Another thought that has flown through the thought tank of the fanbase (aka Twitter) is pursuing a veteran quarterback.

The Dolphins have moved the ball well with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. For the sake of this argument, let’s say Fitzpatrick is an average quarterback. We’ve seen a handful of 20-point games. We’ve seen what an elite receiver DeVante Parker is capable of, in an offensive that isn’t run by Adam Gase.

What if, instead of forcing a quarterback in the 2019 draft, the Dolphins move around to not only replenish picks for 2020 and solidify the roster with roughly five of the first 64 picks of the 2020 draft? Could the Dolphins roster a competitive team that is capable of returning to the hunt?

Fans threw around Cam Newton’s name. Newton made his money with his legs and his struggled with an ankle injury over the last two seasons. He is on the books for $18 million next year, which would be pocket change for a Dolphins team that will have over $100 million in cap space? However, Chad O’Shea needs an accurate quarterback that can make throws over the top and outside of the markers, making a 31-year-old Cam Newton a tough fit.

What about Tom Brady? He has history with just about everyone in Miami. A six-time super bowl champion and arguably the best quarterback of all time. Brady will be 43 years old next season and is currently trucking through one of his worst seasons as a pro.

There was a rumor that the Miami Dolphins tried to trade for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford before the 2018 season under Gase.   

Fast forward to today and the Detroit Lions have lost seven-straight games. Yes, Stafford was lost for the season in November, but he was balling out before the injury. Fitzpatrick has thrown for more than 280 yards four times this year. Stafford, on the other hand, has thrown for more than 340 yards four times this year. He finished with 19 touchdowns to just five interceptions through eight games.

Not only does Stafford share some of the traits of Fitzpatrick in terms of playing style, but the Lions may look to hit the reset button with a record of 3-10-1 and “sell the team” signs floating around the stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The best way to rebuild is to ship off a veteran quarterback and embrace a movement. They could speed up the process by engaging in trade talks with the Dolphins, who have a war chest of picks and can likely supply the best value. It is important to keep in mind that this doesn’t necessarily mean multiple first round picks or even a single first-round pick. Miami’s draft capital is more than most other teams.

Miami will draft a quarterback at some point in time. However, Brian Flores has proven himself in 2019 without much help on either side of the ball.

A veteran quarterback like Stafford may be a good option to help stabilize the franchise being under contract through 2022. The move gives Miami’s front office enough time to find the right quarterback, and more importantly, remain competitive.

Miami may decide it doesn’t want to make a big more for a quarterback and remain with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He has done more than enough in 2019 without a lot of help. Not only does the locker room love him, but he has made the Dolphins a fun team. 

Running it back with Fitzpatrick and some shinny new toys from the draft. Miami will add some depth in free agency, which could be just what this team means. However, it is interesting to take off the realistic glasses. Especially when jumping into the Madden trade machine and looking at ways the Dolphins could build a team that could bring Miami a playoff contender.

Guts Check: Bam Adebayo has No Ceiling

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won in OT vs Atlanta 135-121
  • Lost vs the Lakers 113-110
  • Won in OT at Dallas 122-118
  • Lost At Memphis 118-111

After the emotional fatigue associated with the ESPN Heat Index of the Big 3 era, I am usually leery nowadays when the Heat get national recognition. Always equal parts grateful and guarded. I can’t help but feel a bit protective of our finally-fun-again basketball team.

Fun again being a key point I want to marinate on briefly. Yeah I know they lost last night in Memphis, but they were bound to have a short rotation and multiple overtimes catch up with them. Let’s not let one bad loss cloud our thinking. This has been FUN.

First, we marveled at the play of Kendrick Nunn for a couple weeks, then we got acquainted to the Bucket Bros, then came Duncan Robinson shooting flames, Goran Dragic carrying the team off the bench for stretches. Among all those storylines it’s amazing to consider that the leap Adebayo is taking is easily the most impactful development on the entire roster.

What Bam Adebayo is doing is impossible to ignore.

As I always say, he has no ceiling. It’s not mere hope trafficking folks, this dude is the truth. He’s a top 22 player at age 22. On his way to being top 10 or 12 eventually. He has 2 triple doubles already this season, becoming the youngest Heat player ever to accomplish that feat.

A big man getting triple double with assists. Adebayo subscribes to the “don’t talk about it, be about it” method of earning triple doubles. Not often does a player that isn’t ball dominant have the chance to become a top 10 guy. To call him a rare talent is an understatement.

The league is on notice. Evidence by his recent Eastern Conference player of the week award announced yesterday.

Adebayo is a Chris Webber, Draymond Green, Kevin Garnett hybrid. He seems to unlock a different part of his game each night and him becoming this good this fast is jaw dropping.

Of course, Bam has much to go to be mentioned with the likes of Webber and Garnett. Yet the way in which Adebayo works at his craft bodes well for his development into a player who can become as decorated as those greats. He has the chance to be that good.

At one time, Heat fans often considered Bam a player that potentially would have to be sacrificed in the move to bring a superstar to the team. Now it appears his presence on the roster may be the deciding factor in another superstar deciding to join Jimmy & co in Miami.

Oh, and just so we’re clear: Adebayo has been labeled essentially untouchable by Heat brass according to a source.

So as the trade deadline approaches, remember that any trade rumor you see that mentions his name can be dismissed as bogus fodder. I don’t think a single fan will disagree with that decision by the Heat either.

Now let’s get him to Chicago for the All-Star game so he can mingle with the league’s best all weekend and talk up the Culture.

Bam has a chance to be a superstar magnet. I don’t think it should be discounted how important it is for the Heat to have seemingly surrounded Jimmy with such a great cast. Adebayo’s ascension is the kind of happening that makes the Heat’s 2021 pitch an entirely different conversation than we initially expected.

The Heat insist they would have selected Bam even if Donovan Mitchell was available in 2017. At first, I scoffed at the notion. Now I have been left to praise.

Launching Pad: Derrick’s Defense, Butler’s Bullying, Struggling Shooters

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 19-7 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 110.0 (115.0)

• Defensive Rating: 105.0 (111.4)

• Net Rating: plus-5.0 (plus-3.6)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.6 (58.1)

• Pace: 99.94 (98.96)

• Time of Possession: 14.6 seconds (14.6)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Derrick Jones Jr., Bam Adebayo

• Minutes: 26

• Offensive Rating: 153.8

• Defensive Rating: 92.6

• Net Rating: plus-61.2

• True-Shooting Percentage: 73.1

• Pace: 96.75

The Big Number: 9.4

There’s been a weird thing going on with the Heat’s offense this season. As of this morning (December 16th), the Heat rank in the top six in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, true shooting percentage, and assist rate. Teams that score that efficiently and share the ball that well generally rank better than 10th (which is fine!) in offensive rating.

Those teams generally don’t turn the ball over like the Heat do.

Their preference – and at times, reliance – on half-court cuts lead to some ambitious passing. The Heat currently rank 29th in turnover rate (16.7 percent), only ahead of the Atlanta Traes (16.9). That’s partly why their offensive rating was five points higher than their season average, despite their true shooting percentage being a shade lower than their normal average.

Surprisingly, it’s easier to score when you maintain possession of the ball.

Weekly Trends

1. Derrick Jones Jr: Swiss Army Knife

On Thursday, I asked Derrick Jones Jr. where he was most comfortable on defense. Does he like hounding guards? Tracking like-sized 3s? Roaming as the weak-side helper at the 4?

His response: wherever the team needs him. He called himself “positionless” and said, matter-of-factly- that he can “guard 1-through-5.” It’s hard to argue with him after the week he just put together.

It started with him getting the Trae Young assignment on Tuesday.

He then spent time defending LeBron James:

And thennnnn he got to bang with Kristaps Porzingis on Saturday.

This is on top of his usual work as the head of Miami’s zone

Jones Jr. still has hit warts on that end. The angles he takes when navigating pick-and-rolls still leave a bit to be desired. True post threats can give him the blues; Anthony Davis took his lunch money on the few possessions he defended him on Friday.

All in all, it’s hard to complain about the work Jones Jr. has done defensively. He’s clearly improved. That, along with the organized chaos he provides as a transition threat and offensive rebounder, gives him a clear path to closing minutes.

2. The Butler Drove it (and drove it and drove it and drove it)

Jimmy Butler is finally starting to find his groove as a scorer. He’s up to 21 points per game after a conservative start to the year. The jumper hasn’t really come around yet, but he’s compensated by taking it to the rim. Over and over and over again. Much like Goran Dragic, Butler has a way of dislodging defenders with a subtle shoulder check:

Butler hasn’t been as successful at the rim as he has been in other seasons. His 64 percent clip inside of three feet is the lowest mark he’s posted since the 2016-17 season. However, the sheer volume of his drives — 15.5, via Second Spectrum — is the highest it’s ever been. He averaged 19 drives this past week and averaged 8.3 free throw attempts as a result.

Those drives do come at a cost. He’s been exhausted at the end of games and has said as much. Dead legs aren’t going to help an already-shaky jumper get back to form, particularly the pull-up jumpers he likes to take. For now, Butler is willing his way to the hoop — and willing the team to close wins.

3. Struggles from the shooters

I wrote my formal apology to Tyler Herro last week. So of course, he proceeded to forget how to shoot. His three games since that piece: 8.7 points on 10.7 shot attempts, and a 25 percent clip from deep to boot.

Clearly this is my fault.

The shooting will come around; he’s taking mostly good shots, the footwork is fine. There seems to be a slight hitch in his gather, but that may be some slight fatigue-based compensation. If we could revisit Friday’s contest against the Lakers, there is one thing that seems worth discussing.

The handle, while improved, isn’t quite there yet.

Avery Bradley has his shortcomings as a defender – small, isn’t super versatile because of it, whatever – but he’s an absolute menace at the point of attack. Bradley routinely picked up Herro 70-or-so feet from the basket to disrupt his rhythm and it mostly worked.

Herro didn’t display the burst needed to get by. His go-to escape move, a spin to either direction, was a bit sloppy and didn’t create the separation necessary to reset. This was probably his best rep of the night:

That will get cleaned up over time, though the degree of that cleaning-up process is still up in the air.

On the other end of the spectrum is Duncan Robinson. While he hasn’t had a blip in shooting – he canned 51.6 (!) percent of his threes on 10.3 attempts – there has been a drop in quality on the other end. Robinson had been surprisingly “fine” on that end, but the clips of him failing to track shooters or navigate screens are starting to mount.

These are both missed shots, but the process here … isn’t great:

As long as he continues to shoot like a literal Splash Brother, it’ll be easier to overlook his defensive shortcomings. If that shooting starts to slip, his productivity on defense will need to rise to compensate.

Set Play of the Week

Role Reversal

Miami’s post-split action has been giving teams fit all year long. This rep is no different:

The play kicks off with Bam Udoh – er, Adebayo – and Tyler Herro crossing paths. Herro sets a screen for Adebayo, hoping to create an easy bucket underneath. It doesn’t work, so the action continues. This time, Herro sets a down screen for Kelly Olynyk, putting the defense in quite a bind.

Do you fight over the screen and risk Herro springing free for a three?

Do you switch it and create a small-on-big mismatch for Olynyk?

The correct answer: there is no correct answer.

That’s the beauty of using guards that can shoot as screeners in actions like this. Unless you have a switch-y big man, there’s no real way to prevent a mismatch from being created. This is straight from the Steve Kerr handbook, with Herro operating as the Heat’s version of Stephen Curry.

Herro sets a darned good screen The defense freezes, allowing Olynyk to spring open. Adebayo delivers the goods, as he has been all year from that spot.

Dolphins

Fresh Perspective: Top 5 keepers for the Dolphins 2020 season

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It’s no secret that there’s going to be a lot of turnover for the Miami Dolphins come 2020. The 2019 roster is universally considered to be one of the worst NFL rosters in history. Any hope of a return to the playoffs means a roster overhaul is crucial. However, this does not mean there isn’t some talent worth retaining going into the future. Not counting the obvious choices like Jerome Baker and Xavien Howard, of course.

Brian Flores and his coaching staff have done an excellent job of developing what little talent is available. Thus, it’s time to go over the top five players worth keeping around for further development in 2020 and beyond.

Nik Needham – CB

If there is anyone who’s deserving of a roster spot based on improvement alone, it’s cornerback Nik Needham. Needham went from an undrafted free agent out of UTEP to Miami’s best (available) cornerback in 2019. Obviously, he doesn’t compare to Xavien Howard, but Needham is on the field while Howard is on injured reserve. Therefore, technically, Needham is the best. Is that saying much considering the talent on defense? Yes and no.

Remember where Needham came from. During the preseason, Needham notoriously made error after error. Everyone watched it happen. Social media lit up with cries for Needham to be cut immediately. Yet, the Dolphins coaching staff deemed it necessary to keep him around, and it turns out they were right to do so.

Needham has come alive with the experience he’s gained this season. He only has one interception all season, and he has made a few mistakes here and there, but teams haven’t had nearly as much success throwing in his direction as they did earlier this season.

Is Needham worthy of being named the starter opposite Xavien Howard next season? Definitely not. He still has a lot of growing to do before he gets to that point. However, in the modern NFL, a stacked secondary is crucial for success. Should something happen to the starters next season, Miami could do much, much worse than Needham.

Credit the Dolphins coaching staff for seeing what fans and media could not.

Patrick Laird – RB

Out of all the undrafted free agents Miami signed this year, Laird is possibly the one with the least fanfare. Laird came out of Cal as a solid runner, but with no traits that made him stand out physically. He doesn’t boast blistering speed, he can’t run people over with raw power, and he doesn’t have the ability to make people miss with shifty moves.

Or at least, that’s what everyone assumed when he came out. While Laird isn’t wowing people with physical gifts, his pure effort each time he gets the ball makes up for his lack of overall talent. Laird, in many ways, is the physical embodiment of Brian Flores’s “Takes No Talent” philosophy.

Not only has Laird won the hearts of fans, there was also a distinct difference in results running the ball when Laird took over for the injured Kalen Ballage. There was hope Ballage would be able to develop into something special, but so far that doesn’t seem to be the case. Laird displays vision that Ballage doesn’t have, taking what’s given to him rather than forcing something that isn’t there.

Now the same question asked of Nik Needham needs to be asked of Laird. Does he have what it takes to be a starting running back in the NFL? Some have said he could be a poor man’s Christian McCaffrey. Given just how good McCaffrey is, that’s a bit of a stretch. Comparisons to Danny Woodhead, however, are much easier to swallow. They’re also more accurate.

Laird can definitely contribute in 2020, and he almost certainly will. But that doesn’t mean Miami will be content to use him as the starter next season. Laird will be a change of pace back, letting someone else take charge. Unless he can somehow continue developing further.

John Jenkins – DT

Basically the only veteran on this list, John Jenkins has turned out to be more of a contributor than anyone expected. Between he and LB Raekwon McMillan, Miami’s run defense up the middle has been solid these past few weeks. Having a nose tackle like Jenkins is a major boon to the defense, giving the Dolphins someone they can count on to handle two blockers at once.

By the start of the 2020 season, Jenkins will be 31 years old, and he’s a free agent after this season. Jenkins should still be a relatively cheap option for Miami to re-sign if they decide not to focus on DT in the draft.

Of course, being cheap isn’t necessarily something the Dolphins need to worry about, given they’re projected to have more salary cap space than they’ll know what to do with in 2020, with room to make even more by cutting/trading dead weight. They could easily look elsewhere and sign the likes of Danny Shelton for a little extra.

But Jenkins is more than sufficient at a fraction of the cost. If Miami is smart, they’ll sign Jenkins to another deal in the offseason and let him keep clogging up the lanes on running downs. He and McMillan already make a formidable duo, why mess that up?

Vince Biegel – LB

If there’s any question about who won the trade between Miami and New Orleans, here’s a tip for you: It’s the Dolphins. While Alonso offered support when the ball was right in front of him, he struggles when in coverage. Biegel, on the other hand, is proving to have a lot more to offer in the versatility department.

Biegel is relentless when attempting to rush the passer, he can go sideline to sideline, and his coverage ability – so far, at least – far outweighs that of Alonso’s. That alone makes this trade a win for Miami.

Versatility is key in the Dolphins defense, which makes Biegel a valuable commodity worth retaining. Come 2020, it would not come as a surprise to see Miami offer him a new contract to stick around and continue bringing his gritty, effort-fueled level of play to the team.

Is he likely to become a superstar anytime soon? Not at all. But once again, it’s incredibly important to have depth and solid role players all throughout the roster. When injuries hit, and the race to the playoffs heats up, it’s the teams who have depth to fill in the holes left behind that ultimately come out on top.

Taco Charlton – DE

The final player who needs to be a keeper from 2019 on is defensive end Taco Charlton. Now before anyone says Josh Rosen should be the last person on the list, you’re right. He should be on the list. However, Rosen staying goes without saying. So it doesn’t need to be said. Charlton, on the other hand, isn’t a shoe-in to stay. He should be though.

Charlton got picked up off waivers from the Dallas Cowboys back in September. Since then, he leads the team in sacks with a total of five. That isn’t nearly the same impact that Robert Quinn has had with Dallas since being traded there (9.5 sacks in 11 games), but it’s certainly more than first-round pick Charles Harris has ever done for the Dolphins.

That being said, Charlton was recently benched as “part of the gameplan,” according to head coach Brian Flores. Then defensive line coach Marion Hobby stated that Charlton needs to be more consistent against the run. So clearly, Charlton is contributing more than Harris, but he has work to do to keep improving. He most definitely is not the answer to Miami’s pass rush problems.

But Charlton is cheap labor for 2020. At the very least, his contributions are about on par with veteran Andre Branch, who thrived in a reserve role while with the Dolphins, but fell off as soon as he was asked to take on more responsibility. Having Charlton as a backup pass rusher at DE would be the ideal scenario, and hopefully Miami feels the same way.

Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for six years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung

Guts Check: Put Away the Trade Machine

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won at Toronto 121-110
  • Lost at Boston 112-93
  • Won vs Washington 112-103
  • Won in OT vs Chicago 110-105 
    • 3rd in the Eastern Conference, 17-6 .739

Put away your trade machines.

I know you love a good transaction, but now is not the time. Have the guts to be patient.

Until you see this group lose a handful of games in a short window or struggle for a month straight, the Heat is inclined to stand pat. As they should be. No Kevin Love proposals please. Even Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are no longer viable by my view.

Everything is going exactly to plan.

The goal was to have one star attract another star with the help of a core group that checks all the boxes. The ascension of Bam Adebayo and inevitable rise to stardom from Tyler Herro will make this Heat group as desirable as any Heat roster that went into free agency with max space to offer a superstar ever (aside when they had space to offer three maxes, but let’s exclude that for the rest of eternity)

Pat Riley is going to keep eyes open on the trade market. Particularly for any star players that may quietly get shopped and eventually shake loose that would accelerate this build. Or maybe they look at adding a win now vet that doesn’t compromise 2021. That said, reality remains that the type of player worthy of compromising 2021 flexibility is not likely to become available. Any option is more stop gap than gap fill.

This is about setting the table.

Head into summer 2021 free agent meetings with Riley & staff, flanked by Jimmy, Bam & Tyler. Nunn, Robinson, Silva, Okpala all ready to contribute. A core group that exudes this type of connection is noticed by other players.

I can tell you definitively that it was noticed by Bradley Beal.

He won’t be the last player to have that imprint left upon them.

While the urge will always be there to consider names like Kevin Love, Blake Griffin or Chris Paul being potential “missing pieces”, this urge will only intensify the better this team plays. Ignore it, suppress it until it dissolves.

Riley has been known to push all his chips to the middle the table, so any star that even becomes remotely available must be considered. I get that. But consider Riley’s chips not quite stacked high enough yet for him to go all in.

The notion that a Giannis-Miami pairing would end up being the best situation for the best player in the league is still a speculative theory all things considered.

By next December it may appear a no brainer.

The other no brainer? Trusting this organization to strike when the time is right in this scenario.

For now, enjoy THIS team. If you have the guts.

It’s Time To Stop Doubting Tyler Herro

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[steps to podium]

[taps mic]

Hi, hello, is this thing on?

[Adjusts collar]

My name is Nekias Duncan, and I was wrong about Tyler Herro.

It’s typically unwise to have any definitive opinion on rookies, but this one seems pretty obvious.

To say that I was vocal about my displeasure of his selection would be an understatement. There may or may not have been discussions of a shift to Hawks coverage.

I made the mistake of hammering home Herro’s weaknesses and underselling his strengths. I didn’t take his “prove the haters wrong” ethos seriously enough; it’s especially egregious for two reasons.

1) This feature from Bleacher Report’s Mirin Fader laid out Herro’s background beautifully. This isn’t your typical bookmark-a-tweet-for-motivation guy; he’s shrugged off death threats and vandalism from a young age.

2) After the brief stint of mediocrity the Heat went through, and the success of the Bam Adebayo pick specifically, the Heat zeroing in on Herro the way they did should’ve been a clear sign that they saw something special.

That didn’t stop me from being upset with the pick. The takes I let fly on draft night were laughable at best, cringeworthy at worst. They’re going to be laugh fodder for quite some time. Honestly, it’s well deserved.

It’s so well deserved, that I’m going to make the job a little easier for everyone. I took the “pleasure” of listening back to the draft night pod I did and transcribing everything I said. I will not bore you with all of the “come on, mans” , but I will gladly own up to the biggest things I got wrong.

Think of this piece as The Laughing Pad instead of The Launching Pad.

(Direct quotes in bold, analysis underneath.)

Like, he hasn’t shown – I mean he went to Kentucky, so obviously that plays a part – but he hasn’t shown flashes of being a real creator. So I don’t understand what they saw.

For the sake of clarity, it’s important to note that I was speaking through the lens of potential star potential. From the limited amount of Kentucky I had seen at the time, Herro did not seem like a true break-you-down prospect,

Of course, my view lightened a bit once I saw more of him. That led to me writing this piece on his offensive upside, and then somehow coming away more impressed after Summer League play.

Tyler relocates well and can hit spot-ups. He’s not flinging off-balance threes like Wayne [Ellington] was. And maybe he gets there when he improves the footwork, but if that’s the upside, it doesn’t make sense. Miami needs shot creation – sign a shooter.

Technically true! Herro isn’t hitting threes with the finesse that Ellington did. He does a much better job of establishing his base, and is better shooting off the dribble than Ellington was.

 

Herro has shown comfort getting himself out of jams, favoring a mean right-to-left stepback jumper. Via Synergy, he’s generating 0.96 points per possession on off-the-dribble jumpers, placing him in the 63rd percentile. Second Spectrum’s tracking data has Herro at 15-of-28 (53.6 percent) on stepbacks, with a 4-of-10 clip (40 percent) on stepback triples.

Also, it turns out the Heat didn’t need to sign a shooter. Duncan Robinson (42.5 percent on 6.5 attempts) has more than filled that slot.

If you’re going to take a flier, take the flier on KPJ (Kevin Porter Jr.) and hope that he can create.

Here’s how these two stack up in isolation + pick-and-roll creation.

Porter Jr: 64 possessions, 47 points (0.734 PPP), 23-of-64 from the field (35.9 percent)

Herro: 108 possessions, 81 points (0.75 PPP), 32-of-84 from the field (38.1 percent)

Neither are great marks, and it’s worth noting the difference in .. um .. team quality. The fact remains that Herro has been better, and the gap widens (at least statistically) once you factor in passing (0.924 PPP vs 0.787 PPP).

If you’re gonna take a 6’5ish guard that can do some stuff, take Nickeil Alexander-Walker if you’re gonna go that route. At least he can create some in pick-and-roll. He’s not a great athlete, but he has some length.

More numbers, shall we?

NAW: 21-8-7 per 100 possessions, 32/32/69 shooting split, 0.856 PPP in pick-and-roll (passes included)

Herro: 24-7-3 per 100 possessions, 45/39/83 shooting split, 0.914 PPP in pick-and-roll (passes included)

Oddly enough, both players entered this year’s draft with finishing questions. Herro’s lack of length was harped on by yours truly, while NAW’s lack of vertical pop was a cause for concern.

Through the early portion of the season, Herro has been below average (52.8 percent at the rim, via Synergy), while NAW has been outright dreadful (39.5 percent).

As much as I got harped on for the Brandon Clarke love because of his 6’8 wingspan, Brandon Clarke is the second best athlete in the draft. Who *also* has ridiculous IQ defensively. So at least there’s a path to making that work. What does Tyler do [on that end]?

Rebound. The answer is rebound.

There are other things to note. Herro has been mostly fine as a positional defender. He’s generally where he needs to be off the ball, tracks pretty well over screens, and has the dig-and-recover sequence down when enemies attack the basket.

His ability to end possessions is just not something I saw coming. “Gritty” is generally a white-flavored buzzword, but he genuinely doesn’t mind mixing it up for tough boards.

 

 

Herro’s 14.1 defensive rebound rate outpaces notable guard rebounders like James Harden (13.8) and Jimmy Butler (13.1), and is right in the wheelhouse of Memphis Grizzlies wunderkind (and big man) Jaren Jackson Jr. (14.4).

Do the Heat want to throw Herro on elite scorers with regularity? Probably not. Practice stories and an impressive showing against Devin Booker aside, Herro does struggle to contain quicker guards off the dribble.

But were his defensive shortcomings a bit overblown? Probably so. He’s smart, physical, and helps the team end possessions. The flash plays are nice when they come, but he’s ultimately done his job.

Oh … I would take Rui [Hachimura if available]. Again, the bar is the floor, but also .. man that’s tough. If Tyler had an average frame, then you could say ‘well Kentucky normally compresses their guys’ roles and he can already shoot some, so maybe he has some hidden playmaking ability and he can be fine on defense.’ But the guy has a 6’3 wingspan. Like, he has alligator arms.

1) OOF.

2) Even with the caveat that Rui has been a little better than expected, that’s … oof. The phyiscal tools are tantalizing, but he’s been a not-at-all-insignificant part of the Wizards’ historically bad defense.

3) Every single one of those Kentucky caveats were true, even with the “alligator arms.”

I did this with Bam, so obviously I *want* to be wrong. But, like, nah. This is different than the Bam pick.

It’s quite different from the Bam pick for a very specific reason: Herro has shut me up with a lot more force.

Adebayo has been incredible this season, placing his name firmly in talks for the Most Improved Player award, the Defensive Player of the Year award, and the All-Star team.

Herro has been, at the absolute worst, the third best rookie in this year’s class. Winning Rookie of the Year isn’t out of the question, especially if Zion Williamson doesn’t see the floor much this season.

The Heat have nailed back-to-back end-of-the-lotto picks and I didn’t like either of them at the time of their selection. Either I’m an incredible jinx — maybe! — or this organization deserves a lot more credit (and faith) for their ability to scout.

It’s probably the latter.

Season Ticket: This Miami Heat start is real… and spectacular

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You know it when you see it.

You know it when you hear it.

And we’ve seen it. We’ve heard it. We’ve seen how these Miami Heat players have interacted with each other since training camp in West Palm Beach, or even prior, when the group workout clips started circulating on social media, including the ones of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, the new Heat heartbeat welcoming the fresh-faced, drippy prodigy to the NBA and team fraternity, no pledging or hazing required. We’ve heard how the front office and coaching staff has spoken about this collective, about how selfless they are, about how connected they are, about how hungry they are, about how versatile they are, about how precocious they are. “This has a chance to be one of my favorite groups,” a Heat official who has been with the team for more than two decades told me in early September. “Just watch. People are underestimating us. This has a chance to happen fast.”

And we believed them. Or at least I believed them. I even put your money where my mouth was, suggesting you go over the 43 wins that the Las Vegas oddsmaker set on the futures table, suggesting you look seriously at Bam Adebayo as a Most Improved Player candidate, Erik Spoelstra as a Coach of the Year option and even Butler as a Most Valuable Player darkhorse. My co-hosts on Five on the Floor took a little more time, perhaps. But they came around too. They saw what I saw and kept saying — if you give Spoelstra an less cluttered roster full of motivated players with a defensive mindset, special things can happen.

So we’re not surprised about this, not completely, not on the Five on the Floor podcast. Impressed, but not surprised. Not that it’s gone well. This well? Starting 17-6, after a 110-105 overtime victory against the Chicago Bulls on Sunday evening, giving them as more wins than 25 of 29 other teams? Winning all 10 home games, after underperforming badly at American Airlines Arena in recent seasons? Losing only to teams that are currently in the playoffs, with all but Minnesota well over .500 entering Sunday’s play? Doing this while shelving more than $25 million (James Johnson, Dion Waiters) for assorted issues; while missing two of the three primary ballhandlers (Justise Winslow, Goran Dragic) of late; while relying on two rookies (Herro, Kendrick Nunn), one 19 and one undrafted, as two of their five leading scorers; while counting on two more projects (Duncan Robinson, Chris Silva) in the rotation?

Posting the same record through 23 games as the LeBron-Wade-Bosh Big Three Heat did in each of their final three seasons together, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14? And two games better than that Hall of Fame-stacked squad did in its first season together (2010-11)? A game better than the Heat started in Shaquille O’Neal’s first season (2004-05)? Four games better than the Heat started after acquiring Alonzo Mourning (1995-96)? And, of course, nine games better through 23 than during Dwyane Wade’s rookie season?

OK, maybe a little.

But it’s real.

This is what the Heat are — or at least, this is the floor. There likely won’t be a championship, not yet, but there won’t be a collapse. Barring a major injury, something more significant to a primary contributor than what has caused Winslow and Dragic to miss 18 combined games, with both soon to return, this team should continue to improve as the season progresses. There’s simply no reason they shouldn’t. Yes, there will be bumps. Every season, every roster, has them. The Big Three teams had them. So why wouldn’t these guys? We’ve already seen Nunn encounter some, especially on the road against better opponents, with prepared teams taking advantage of his tunnel vision. We’ve seen Adebayo pass when he should shoot; that played a prominent role in his seven turnovers Sunday, the only nit in his otherwise superlative statline. We’ve seen Butler struggle more with his jumpshot than in recent seasons. And we haven’t seen enough of Winslow and Butler together to know whether, offensively, it can really work.

But you know what else we’ve seen?

Trust in each other.

Passion under pressure.

Growth individually, and together.

And winning at less than their best.

Take Sunday. Yes, take it. Embrace it, in all of its ugliness. Choppy. Uneven. Unsightly at times. And yet, when it mattered, when the customary closer (Butler) had lost his legs, when his shots were coming up short — when he was already so weary that he would spend several minutes slumped in his locker stall later, acknowledging his exhaustion — he turned to a kid who was born exactly one year prior to George W. Bush’s first inauguration. A kid most of Miami didn’t want Pat Riley to select, even with John Calipari’s endorsement and that Kentucky pedigree. A kid who wore the loudest outfit on draft night but speaks to media members in the quietest voice. A kid who has that ideal combination of conformity and cockiness, who wants to work and then work his opponents over. A kid who won over a demanding, star teammate in a way that three former No. 1 overall picks (guys named Towns and Wiggins and Simmons) clearly did not in previous stops.

A kid who scored 27, including three three-pointers at critical times after a slow start to the night, including 16 of the Heat’s final 18, including 11 in overtime.

“You saw in college, with the biggest moments, that’s where he was playing his best,” Spoelstra said Sunday of Herro. “If your max player trusts you in these moments….”

That Butler does. Implicitly.

“We’ve got a lot in common, to tell you the truth,” Butler said. “But more than anything, I respect the way he works, the way he carries himself.”

Their big/little brother bond is obvious. Been obvious. And that trust has been remarkable and refreshing.

But not more than Herro trusts himself. He trusts his shot like he trusts his wardrobe. As he told me when I asked in camp who has the most “drip” in the NBA: “I do.” Who’s second? “No one’s close.”

Sunday, the Bulls weren’t close enough to him on the floor. Not after Butler drew the defense. Not after scrambles.

Not when it counted.

It looked like he was seeking those opportunities. To be the hero or goat.

At 19.

Sunday night, he stood in front of the locker stall that LeBron and Shaq once did.

“Uh, yeah,” Herro said. “I don’t shy away from taking the big shot. I have a lot of confidence. So down the stretch, Jimmy trusts me with the ball. He got me it in good spots, and I knocked down a couple of threes.”

Matter of fact.

Surprised the Bulls weren’t closing out harder?

“They had to pick their poison, either Jimmy or me,” Herro said, with a hint of a laugh.

Then he remembered he’s a rookie. On a team like this. Where everyone praises. Everyone trusts. No one steps out too much, drip or no drip.

“… Or… there were three other guys on the floor with us, that will hurt them too. So they had to pick their poison.”

Some fans picked up and left when LeBron did. It got too difficult. Too many Henry Walkers and Danny Grangers. Too little Bosh. Too many poor offseason decisions, at least during 2016 and 2017. Too much heartache when Wade bolted, at least until he returned. Too little that was real, even that 30-11 finish to 2016-17 that duped the front office even more than it did the public. But this organization never stays down too long. It reinvents. It reinvigorates. It reminds you of what it has been, and likely will be again. Sunday, a kid who looks nothing like Wade brought back memories of how Wade introduced himself way back in 2003, with moments like these, moments that let you know he was different, and his teams would be different. Moments that made you look forward to years. Moments that confirm what we’ve been seeing and hearing since the spring and summer, when the moves all started to make sense — and if you started paying attention then, or even now, you picked a damn good time to come back.

Ethan J. Skolnick has covered the Miami Heat since 1996, and now hosts the Five on the Floor podcast. 

 

The Mourning Edition: The Miami Heat’s First Quarter Checkup

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Welcome to The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The Miami Heat are the NBA’s most predictable team.

Unless they’re not.

They both are who we thought they were and nothing like we imagined. And they might metamorphose several times over during the upcoming months.

They have core philosophies built around dogged defense and cohesive culture, but so much about this iteration of South Beach’s finest remains unknown.

Miami might be way ahead of schedule. Or it may not be ready for the Association’s aristocracy. It could have its first alpha scorer of the post-Big Three era. But Jimmy Butler isn’t always looking for his shot, and a lot of times, he shouldn’t.

This could be a slow climb toward title contention. But if Pat Riley gets antsy, maybe he consolidates the prospect collection in a megamove for an accelerating star.

That’s a long-winded way of saying even at the quarter-mark of the 2019-20 season, it’s unclear who these Heat are⁠—or what they can become. Still, there’s enough data on file for us to take stock what’s real, what maybe isn’t and what could change down the road.

The Foundation

There are three key cogs in this Miami machine: Butler, Bam Adebayo and Justise Winslow. (If you’re unclear whether Winslow belongs in that triad, you should try watching a game some time.) OK, it’s really five with Riley and Erik Spoelstra added to the mix.

Under that quartet, the backbone becomes obvious. It’s defense, versatility and a military-like commitment to conditioning designed to exhaust the opposition.

“Miami’s always been the team that everybody around the league respects because they play hard, they have a DNA, they have an identity,” Phoenix Suns coach Monty Williams said.

“Their approach never changes in terms of who they are,” Golden State Warriors skipper Steve Kerr said during a recent visit to South Florida. “They’re always tough, defensive-minded.”

Some stoppers may be stingier than others, but the expectations are consistent across the board. When sharpshooting rookie Tyler Herro showed up, they tasked him with guarding Butler⁠—on day one.

Roughly two weeks into his NBA career, Herro booted Butler out of the way so he could defend Devin Booker, one of only 11 players ranked among the top-25 in points and assists per game.

That’s the manifestation of culture, the transfer of hoops DNA.

That’s how a team overhauls its roster—five of last season’s top nine in minutes played are gone, and one is out of the rotation (Dion Waiters)—and still snags the eighth overall spot in defensive efficiency, with ample room for improvement.

On the offensive end, the team-wide commitment to movement is no different.

When Butler arrives with a $140 million contract in hand and four All-Star selections to his credit and still shares the sugar, how can the rest not fall in line? No one has pondered that question, because everyone is on board. Miami, which doesn’t really have a natural point guard on the roster, sits sixth in assist percentage and seventh in points created by assists.

As Spo likes to put it, the Heat are “building habits.” The more they can carry forward, the more sustainable this success becomes.

The Possible Pitfalls

If the campaign closed today, Miami would have its third-highest winning percentage in franchise history.

Clearly, this club is better than almost everyone realized. But is it really headed toward a more successful season than three of the four Big Three campaigns? That’s probably asking too much of this roster.

Butler looks comfortable as a closer and capable of typically delivering whatever this team needs. But he doesn’t always seize control of this offense in moments when it’s obviously waiting on his guidance.

“Sometimes he’s too passive,” Bam Adebayo said earlier this season. “I got to get on his ass a little bit when he’s too passive. I got to over there and whisper in his ear and be like, ‘Yo, we didn’t bring you here to just pass.'”

Two of the Heat’s top-five scorers are freshmen. Some might chalk that up as Herro and Kendrick Nunn having advanced ability and maturity, and that’s partly true. But the players are still rookies, and it shows when they play away from AmericanAirlines Arena or against the league’s top competition.

Herro has been a 54.0 percent shooter and 48.7 percent three-point sniper inside the AAA. Away from it, those numbers plummet to 38.1 and 32.9, respectively. With Nunn, he loses nearly five field-goal percentage points (46.1 to 42.6) and more than 14 percentage points off his perimeter conversion rate (44.2 to 30.2) when he balls away from Biscayne.

The two have also struggled against the juggernauts. Boil down their production to contenders only—Boston, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Toronto—and Nunn becomes a 30 percent shooter (20 from deep) while Herro lands at 35.2 (32.6).

It’s emblematic of their offensive struggles overall against the league’s stone walls. As Heat.com’s Couper Moorhead observed, the Heat are 29th in offense against top 10 defenses and shot an anemic 31.8 percent from distance in those games.

None of this means the sky is falling. But there were reasons we all looked at this roster before the season and wondered if it had enough scoring or sniping.

The Growth Potential

The quarter checkup on the Heat gets no more encouraging than this—They have a 16-6 record despite being in the early stages of their evolution.

Butler will only get more comfortable grabbing control of this attack, as he already has with two triple-doubles in his last three games. Adebayo will keep developing on the offensive end; his flashes make you salivate. Winslow will find his niche, or given his Swiss Army knife abilities, maybe a dozen different niches.

Spo has some aces up his sleeve he may not reveal for months. His possible closing lineup of Butler, Adebayo, Winslow, Herro and Kelly Olynyk has logged just six minutes together. Swap out Herro for Goran Dragic, and you have a quintet that’s yet to see the floor.

Derrick Jones Jr. or James Johnson could give this rotation a new twist. Riley might give it a more dramatic makeover if a second star fits his price range and doesn’t disrupt the 2021 financial outlook.

We’ve seen plenty from the Heat, but almost assuredly not their best.

“We’re capable of it,” Butler told reporters recently. “We are. When we lock in and we worry about ourselves and we get lost in it and play hard, we’re going to be a very good team.”