Five Reasons, Martin’s NFL Best Bets: Week 15

Previous Week’s Record:  1-2
Overall Season Record:  23-15 

Note:  Martín had been posting his NFL plays since Week #1 for the Canadian betting site point spreads under the pseudonym of “El Hombre” (that clearly took a lot of imagination on his part). Most importantly, though, is the fact that he has been racking up the profits and now he is able to put his name on his picks (no pressure, we know). Now he makes his Five Reasons gambling debut with three games left in the regular season, he’s hitting about 65 percent winners – wow, not bad for free analysis! – Here is his latest on this week’s games and his three best bets. 

All odds are based on the lines from Yahoo! on Friday afternoon. 

MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-5) vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-7) 

This game is tricky, because my brain is telling me two very different things.

The first is that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is the venom that poisons opposing rookie quarterbacks. He is 21-5 in his career against them, and he hasn´t lost to one since Geno Smith defeated him in 2013 (???). His latest victim was Chargers sensation Justin Herbert, who had a big slice of humble pie in a 45-0 drubbing by the Pats. Tua is not playing better than Herbert this season, even though he did show flashes of his potential against Arizona and most recently mounting a comeback against Kansas City.

On the other hand, these were the coaches of the rookie QBs that Belichick faced since that loss to Geno: Anthony Lynn, Pat Shurmur, Sean McDermott, Bill O´Brien, Jeff Fisher, Tony Sparano.

Brian Flores is better than all of them. He not only knows Belichick´s defensive tendencies after working for him, but he now also has seen what Cam Newton can do as Patriots QB (not much). That was a luxury he didn´t have when the Dolphins lost to the Patriots 21-13 in Week 1 with Fitzpatrick as quarterback and little to no offseason work.

Miami´s defense is leaps and bounds better 14 weeks later, and Tua is brash enough to end Belichick´s streak.

My pick: Dolphins (-2.5) 23-17 Patriots 

DALLAS COWBOYS (4-9) vs. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (5-8) 

Dallas has a worse record, but more to play for in a must-win game for them to stay alive in the NFC East race. However, they haven´t been able to win two games in a row all season, and that is just sad.

Meanwhile, the Niners are 4-2 on the road with a defense that sits in the top half of the league allowing 23.9 points and didn´t allow an offensive touchdown in last week´s  23-15 loss to Washington.

Cowboys quarterback Andy Dalton´s winless playoff record shows us he isn´t known to rise up to the occasion in must-win situations, and they really can´t count on the worst defense in the NFL to do so either.

My pick: Cowboys 20-24 49ers (-3) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICK 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (11-2) vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-10-1) 

The formerly undefeated Steelers are pissed off after consecutive losses and face a Bengals team that is averaging…10.0!? points per game during the five-game losing streak that began when Joe Burrow got injured.

Watch that romantic comedy your girlfriend has been begging you to, stop procrastinating on your Christmas shopping, call your grandma…do anything but watch this game.

My pick: Steelers (-13) 30-10 Bengals