JR’s Picks on the Davis vs. Santa Cruz boxing card

Main Event: Gervonta Davis vs Leo Santa Cruz for WBA World Championships

Pick: Gervonta Davis
By: KO/TKO
Single Round: 7th round
Winning Group of Rounds: (7-12
Fight Goes the Distance: No
Breakdown: Leo Santa Cruz is coming in as the biggest challenge of Gervonta Davis so far in his career. He has the pace and the volume to throw him off as much as anyone he has faced so far. With that being said Gervonta is coming in the much bigger fighter and the much stronger fighter. The power of his punches has ended all but one of his opponents and that’s when he’s fighting men his own size. Leo Santa Cruz fights mostly at 122lbs and 118lb and is moving up to challenge someone who is much bigger. The fighters in the bantamweight divisions don’t have the same strength and pop in their punches as the 135ers. In this fight, Santa Cruz is going to have to be perfect to win. His defense is going to need to be on point at all times and he needs to be throwing volume to win rounds. The difference is that Davis only needs to be perfect for a few seconds to put Santa Cruz out and have his hand raised at the end of the night. Santa Cruz keeps a high guard so this fight may end up playing out with Davis working the body until those hands fall and then in a later round get those knockdowns that put Santa Cruz out.

Co-Main Event: Mario Barrios (C) vs. Ryan Karl, 12 rounds, WBA super lightweight title
Pick: Mario Barrios
By: Decision
Fight Goes the Distance: Yes
Breakdown: Mario Barrios comes in with what seems to be a much better feel inside the ring than Ryan Karl. This is shown throughout Mario’s fights where he dictates the pace, moves in and out of boxing range and does a good job of cornering his opponents and putting them in the danger zone. Karl allows himself a lot of the time to get backed up into the corner and edges of the ring and then starts to swing from there. His swinging is the most accurate and crisp strikes so it will leave himself open to counterpunches which Barrios is more than capable of doing. Ryan Karl will be able to stand in there for all 12 rounds but he will lose the majority of them, therefore Mario Barrios will pick up a decision win.

Fight #3: Regis Prograis vs. Juan Heraldez, 10 rounds, super lightweight

Pick: Regis Prograis
By: TKO
Round: 8-10
Fight Goes the Distance: No
Breakdown: Former WBA World and WBC Diamond Super Junior Welterweight Champion Regis Prograis is finally making his return to the ring after taking his first loss to IBF Champion Josh Taylor. Looking to avenge his first loss, he is going to be taking on the unbeaten Juan Heraldez. For Juan, this is the toughest competition of his career taking on a former champ. 20 of 24 wins for Prograis came by knockout, with 10 of those being in the first two rounds. His power is going to keep Juan at bay and even though both fighters might be coming in with a little ring rust, Prograis should be able to put combinations together later in the fight as he gets more comfortable. Prograis by a late TKO to get this one done.

Fight #4: Isaac Cruz vs. Diego Magdaleno, 12 rounds, IBF lightweight title eliminator

Pick: Magdaleno
By: Decision
Fight Goes the Distance: Yes
Breakdown: We will get a challenger for the IBF lightweight title after this fight is over when Two-time world title challenger Diego Magdaleno takes on Isaac Cruz Gonzalez. Cruz has reportedly been working against southpaws in this camp to better prepare him for the stance of Diego Magdaleno. For Magdaleno, this is a step down in competition in comparison to the world title fights that he has had previously. His ring IQ is good enough to be able to control the pace of the fight and keep Isaac Cruz uncomfortable. It’s unlikely we see Cruz impose his will in this fight and thus Diego Magdaleno gets it done by Decision.

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