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Marlins playoffs

5 Keys for Marlins in Playoffs Wild Card Round

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The Miami Marlins are back in the playoffs for the first time in 17 years when their Wild Card series begins versus the Chicago Cubs. Although the Cubs are favored and expected to win, the Marlins have the makeup to not only make this an interesting series, but to win the three-game set and advance.

The Marlins enter the postseason with a 31-29 record, the franchise’s first winning season since 2009. They finished second in the NL East but sported a polarizing minus-41 run differential through 60 games.

The Cubs, meanwhile, lead the NL Central almost wire-to-wire, despite it being a division with three other playoff teams. Chicago finished with a 34-26 record and a plus-25 run differential, but they sputtered to end the season. The Cubs were 4-6 over their last 10 with a minus-6 run differential.

These two teams are evenly matched and sport similar strengths. Here’s a look at five keys for the Marlins this Wild Card series in the playoffs.

Marlins Playoffs: Getting Ground Ball Outs

Yesterday, the Marlins announced their starting rotation for the three-game series in the playoffs. Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 39 K) will start Game 1. Sixto Sanchez (3-2, 3.46 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 33 K) will take Game 2. Pablo Lopez (6-4, 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 59 K) gets Game 3 if there is one.

Marlins playoffs

The Miami Marlins starting rotation for the Wild Card round of the playoffs. (Photo Credit: Miami Marlins/Twitter.com)

Starting pitching remains the Marlins’ strength this season. While the team’s overall ERA stands at 4.86 (21st in MLB), if you take the collective ERA of the 15 pitchers who threw the most innings this season, that number drops to 4.23, which would be 12th in MLB.

Marlins starters square off against an inconsistent Chicago offense. Although the names are well-known, the Cubs lineup has posted just a .220 batting average (27th) and scored 265 runs (20th). They have a strikeout-rate of 25.7 percent, which is 14th in the league, and a chase-rate of 27.5 percent (16th). Their 568 strikeouts were fifth-most in the NL.

The Cubs lineup lacked the consistency seen in years past, but it’s loaded in experience. They relied a great deal on the long ball, connecting on 74 home runs, including 30 at home.

Marlins starting pitchers need to limit walks and keep the ball within the friendly confines of Wrigley Field if they want to be successful in these playoffs. Alcantara sports a 50.4 percent ground-ball rate, and that’s the lowest rate of Miami’s three starters. Sanchez’s ground-ball rate is 58 percent and Lopez’s is 52.8.

Getting those ground ball outs will be key for Marlins pitchers this series.

Leveraging the Bullpen

The Marlins used a staggering 37 different pitchers this season, including 28 different relievers. Overall, the bullpen ERA finished at 5.50, fourth worst in the league. A closer look at that number reveals it as a flawed measure.

17 of those 28 relievers pitched less than eight innings out of the ‘pen but surrendered a whopping 65 earned runs over 59.2 innings combined. Hence, the inflated bullpen ERA. If you take the Marlins top-five relievers, you’ll see a group that posted a 2.00 ERA over 85.2 innings pitched. That would be the best mark in the league by far.

Brandon Kintzler, Yimi Garcia, Brad Boxberger, James Hoyt and Richard Bleier sport a mix of stuff and experience and should be able to save games if given the opportunity. As a group, those five are 13 for 18 in save opportunities. As a team this season, the Marlins are 29-0 when leading after six innings, so the bullpen has come through.

Marlins manager Don Mattingly will need to leverage these top-five arms to win this series.

Marlins Playoffs: Finding the Offense

One of the frustrations for the Marlins this season has been an inconsistency on offense. The Marlins score 4.38 runs-per-game (21st in MLB). The offense overall is middle-of-the-pack in batting average (.244; 17th) and OPS-plus (92; 19th). However, Miami has been shut out a league-high seven times.

Miguel Rojas (.304/.392/.496) and Jesus Aguilar (.277/.352/.457) have been the two best hitters in the lineup. Brian Anderson has also consistently got on base and has hit the ball well with a .810 OPS.

As a team, the offense did its best work with two-outs. Their .251 average with two-outs is fifth-best in the NL and their 122 runs scored with two-outs are sixth-best in MLB. With runners-in-scoring-position and two-outs, their .256 average is sixth-best in the league, and their 90 RBI are fifth-most.

The Marlins have a limited history with Chicago’s Game 1 and Game 2 starters.

Versus Kyle Hendricks, Starling Marte sports the most experience with 26 at-bats and six hits. Corey Dickerson is 4-for-16. Rojas, Anderson and Lewis Brinson are a combined 5-for-34. Jorge Alfaro has had some success, going 3-for-7.

Versus Yu Darvish, Marte and Dickerson are a combined 9-for-24 with three doubles and two home runs. Rojas, Anderson and Brinson are 2-for-14. Chad Wallach is 1-for-4 with a home run versus Darvish.

The Marlins offense will need to find some level of consistency to be successful during these playoffs. They’ve struggled versus soft-tossers like Hendricks, but the key will be getting on base.

Keeping the Running Game Going

The Marlins playoffs success will certainly hinge upon not only getting on base, but also putting pressure on Chicago’s defense once they do so. Miami sports a great deal of speed throughout the roster and regular lineup.

In 2020, the Marlins stole 51 bases over 60 games, which was the second-highest total in MLB. The team even stole home three times this season. This approach is a philosophical change for the Fish, considering the 2019 club stole just 55 bags in 162 games.

With Marte, Rojas and Jon Berti, the Marlins deploy speed that could be effective versus a soft-tossing pitcher like Hendricks. Cubs catcher Willson Contreras threw out nine of 26 runners this season, but the Marlins can be selective with their moves. In addition to the regular starters, Mattingly can also inject speed with Brinson, Monte Harrison and Magneuris Sierra as potential base-stealers late in games.

Putting the pressure on the Cubs defense will force Chicago to execute and could lead to the Marlins scratching out an extra run or two. And runs will be at a premium in this playoffs series.

Defense Wins Championships

The Marlins defense features a number of athletic, rangy players that catch the ball well. Miami sports plus-defenders across a number of positions, including Anderson at third base, Rojas at short and Marte in center.

As a whole, the Marlins registered a .980 fielding percentage this season with 40 errors (seventh-most). While those numbers aren’t great, the turnover in the roster led to some of these defensive issues.

Marlins pitchers induced 55 double plays this season, which was second-most in MLB. Marlins relievers lead the league with 32 double plays.

One interesting choice Mattingly will have to make will be who starts at catcher. Alfaro produces more offensively, and can control Chicago’s running game, but Wallach is the better defensive receiver. Wallach seems to have developed a positive chemistry with Lopez and Alcantara of late. That chemistry could be key.

In recent years, World Series champions have sported more defensive-minded players behind the plate to great success.

Marlins Playoffs: Prediction

The Marlins have a tall task ahead of them, but if Alcantara can help them win Game 1, the Marlins should be able to win this playoff series in three games. The opportunistic offense will need to come through, but, as they have all year, this Marlins group is resilient and believes in itself.

Alcantara said during Spring Training, “We’re going to surprise people.” And that could very well continue for the Marlins in these playoffs.

Marlins postseason

Wild Numbers from Marlins Postseason Push

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The Miami Marlins clinched their first postseason berth since 2003 last night. Their 4-3 victory over the New York Yankees, coupled with Philadelphia’s 6-4 loss to the Rays, punched the Marlins’ ticket. In a 60-game rollercoaster of a season, the Marlins strapped in and produced some of the most incredible numbers in the sport.

 

Baseball is a game of numbers. Books have been written and movies have been made about them. Organizations sport robust analytics departments dedicated to digging through and pulling meaning from the numbers.

Here’s a look at some of the wild numbers from the Marlins postseason push.

16

It’s been 16 seasons since the last Miami Marlins team made the postseason. With Friday night’s win, the Marlins punched their playoff ticket for the first time since 2003 and for just the third time in franchise history. The other two times, the Marlins entered the postseason as a Wild Card and went on to win the World Series. In 2020, they finished second in the NL East, as they did in 1997 and 2003.

16 was also the jersey number of Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez, who passed away four years ago yesterday. Fernandez’s infectious spirit during his playing days brought joy to so many, and his loss changed the course of this franchise. Marlins manager Don Mattingly admitted the day as an emotional one, prior to the game. Mattingly said his wife sent him a picture of him and Jose, and also revealed he’s worn a bracelet with the #16 on it ever since. Mattingly also adjusted his workouts routines to be 16 reps instead of 15.

“It would be something that would be special,” Mattingly said pregame of clinching a playoff spot on the day Jose passed. And that’s exactly what this club did.

21

The Marlins have used 21 rookies this season during their improbably playoff run. This youth movement helped Miami navigate the tough times in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak to start the season. These players injected energy and life into the club and helped the Marlins rally from the difficult situation to start.

Of the 21 rookies, 18 of them made their MLB debuts. The 18 debuts came within the team’s first 44 games. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, entering 2020, no team in Major League history had as many debuts over a team’s first 60 games.

23

The Marlins started the 2020 season by packing for a five-day trip. The road trip should have taken the team from Atlanta to Philadelphia, then home for their season opener. Unfortunately, that five-day sojourn morphed into a 23-day odyssey.

The COVID-19 outbreak quarantined the club in Philadelphia for more than a week and more than half of the roster needed to be supplemented with moves. 18 players were placed on the injured list, and when the team resumed play in Baltimore, more than half of the Opening Day roster had been turned over.

Only five players have been on the active roster the entire season: Jesús Aguilar, Brian Anderson, Brad Boxberger, Brandon Kintzler and Pablo López.

46.5

The Marlins seem to do their best work in the clutch. Entering the weekend, the club has scored 46.5 percent of their runs with two outs this season, the highest such percentage in MLB.

Before Friday’s game, the Marlins entered batting .249 (151-for-607) this season with two outs, seventh-highest mark in the Majors and fifth in the NL. Miami’s .343 OBP with two outs is fifth best in the Majors in 2020. These clutch hits buoyed the Marlins postseason push throughout the season.

50

The Marlins have stolen 50 bases this season, second most in the Majors behind only San Diego (52). Have been caught just once in their last 20 stolen base attempts. Miami stole 55 bases in all of 2019, good for 23rd overall. The Marlins have led the Majors in stolen bases three times previously: 2000 (168), 2002 (177) and 2003 (150).

Jonathan Villar had nine steals with the Marlins, and Jon Berti has eight this season. Monte Harrison has six. No other player has more than five, but 13 different Marlins have stolen at least one bag.

The Marlins stolen home three times this season. MLB’s other 29 teams have done it a total of once.

61

The Marlins have used 61 players this season. The team has made 175 roster moves. Of the 61 players to don a Marlins uniform during this postseason push, 37 have been pitchers, including 28 different relievers and 13 different starting pitchers.

The Marlins started nine different pitchers in their first nine games this season, setting a new MLB record in that regard. And 52 of the team’s 59 games have been started by pitchers 25-years-old or younger.

105

In 2019, the Marlins went 57-105. The sported the worst record in the National League and were among the worst teams in all of baseball. Injuries and ineffective play littered the season, but in 2020, everything changed. With this postseason berth, the Marlins become just the second team in MLB history to go from 100-plus losses in the previous year to the playoffs. The 2019 Marlins are the worst team by record to ever clinch a playoff spot the following season.

The Marlins had a less than one percent chance to make the playoffs, and most baseball pundits picked the Marlins to finish last in the NL East. The team was called “bottom feeders” by some and rallied around that label, making it a motto.

“It’s pushed us,” Lewis Brinson said Saturday morning. “We knew going into Spring Training that no one believed in us.”

Some other Marlins Postseason Numbers

  • The Marlins have 58 home runs in 58 games in 2020, averaging a homer every 32.12 ABs. It’s the team’s second-highest such mark in the last 12 years, behind 2017 (28.88).
  • The Marlins are 19-13 (.613) on the road this season, the third-best road winning percentage in the Majors and the third-most road wins in behind the Dodgers (22) and Rays (20). The Marlins had a 27-54 (.333) road record in 2019, and have secured a winning road record for the first time since 2009 (44-37, .543).
  • Due to makeup games, the Marlins will play 34 road games in 2020 – 57% of their scheduled contests.
  • The Marlins are 11-8 (.579) in one-run games this season. That’s tied with Milwaukee for most one-run wins among NL teams in 2020. Miami had 9 one-run wins in all of 2019.
  • The Marlins have been able to come out victorious when they have the lead late in games, going 27-0 in contests in which they are up on their opponents entering the sixth inning. According to Elias, only one team – Atlanta at 27-0 – has as many such wins without a loss in 2020.

These numbers come courtesy of the Miami Marlins and MLB.com.