Tag Archive for: Miami Heat

The Ways to Maximize the Butler-Oladipo-Herro Pairing

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When talking about the Heat potentially running it back to begin the season minus PJ Tucker, you could also make the case they’re running back the regular season by swapping Victor Oladipo for Tucker.

He was a guy that played a couple games late in the year, but was thrown in the mix during the playoffs to try and make it work on the fly.

But now that Miami re-signed him, this no longer consists of trial and error.

This is the real thing.

Yet when talking about him specifically, it’s more about how things will fit around him with certain lineup combinations. One of those awkward combos gained a ton of steam in their post-season run, but like I said earlier, they were basically trying things out to see how they’d look.

The combo that was gone to religiously was the Oladipo-Jimmy Butler-Tyler Herro grouping. They turned the keys over to a bunch of creators, basically knowing that the defending role players would hold up on the other end.

Looking at raw numbers within the advanced statistics, that three-man combo wasn’t the greatest. It logged a 107 offensive rating and 111 defensive rating over 97 minutes. But the issue with that is numbers like that don’t tell the full story.

Tyler Herro’s advanced stats were very poor late in their playoff run, bringing down a ton of lineup data. But something that always tells the truth: film.

I ended up rewatching all 97 minutes of the time they shared the floor, mainly focusing on the offensive end. And to scope even further, the half-court stuff. We know how and where all of them operate individually, but where do they blend all together?

There were some mixed variations, but I’m going to highlight the primary stuff that jumped off the screen. Starting somewhere that many of you can guess without even watching the film: spot-up shooting.

Just when using simple math, combining three on-ball creators means one has the ball in a pick and roll set, while the other two space out on each corner or wing. That, at times, became an unnecessary homebase for this Heat group, since there was zero consistency within that process.

Drive and kick, drive and kick, drive and kick. Yes, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo can knock down a spot-up corner triple, but it’s most definitely not the role you want them in.

Other than the fact that they’re better after putting the ball on the deck, the purpose of utilizing three creators is to ‘utilize them as three creators.’ The second they enter the three-point spacer role, the original purpose of this lineup has lost it’s value.

Now, this isn’t to say they won’t take advantage of the spot-up triple, but the process is the key element here.

With these three offensive builds, swing-swing-shot just won’t cut it.

Yet, swing-attack-paint touch-kick will cut it…

A common thread in their minutes together was that things always looked great when one of them got two feet in the painted area. When one of the three trusted mid-range threats build some momentum, the defense collapses slightly, which is basically the plot of how this can work.

Constantly move. I’ll get into that a bit more in a second, but when you look at some of the clips above, you’ll notice a difference in defensive disposition compared to normal spot-up shots.

They really found their groove in this department in the Philadelphia series. The Hawks series was a quick experiment late in the round, leading them into finding something offensively in the 76ers series, leading into facing a Boston defense who shut the water off around the rim if your name wasn’t Jimmy Butler.

But when talking regular season for the time being, that 76ers series is the blueprint.

We can talk about the starter competition all we want, but the truth is that doesn’t hold as much value as this does. Finding a way for this grouping to work changes everything. Lineup versatility, death lineup status, lengthier lineups on a team full of guards, etc.

But as we get into how they can make it work exactly, I must go back to the comment I made a second ago. When they share the floor, the key is to take the “motion offense” label and absolutely run with it.

Before I even say a word, watch the two clips above.

I can guarantee most of us are aligned on what we saw. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo impersonating statues.

Whenever it included Jimmy Butler isolations or pick and rolls, even considering how great he was at carrying this group, it was never a good sign for the offense in a specific run.

Herro is a rhythm player. Oladipo is a rhythm player. This type of standing around only leads to them being behind the 8-ball, and as I said earlier, you must bend the defense to be successful.

I hate comparing things like this to the Warriors, but they’re a great example. They have two of the greatest shooters ever to make it work, but the idea of constant movement to create opportunities off the dribble, not only from beyond the arc but at the rim, is how Miami can replicate things with this grouping.

When going back through this film, this created a ton of big time offensive runs in the playoffs, mostly at home. They started playing to the crowd, got out on the break, and were moving in the half-court.

But the next question becomes: how do they make this movement stuff work?

And well, this was my biggest takeaway after watching possession after possession of these three guys.

The answer isn’t even one of the three.

If we expand this into a 4 man lineup with Bam Adebayo, the offensive rating shot up to a 121 offensive rating over 53 minutes. Yet after watching the way they utilized Bam in these time slots, that number didn’t surprise me at all.

For starters, they played Bam much higher out in these lineups than they usually would. There are a couple reasons for that, but I’ll just give you two: 1) Taking that weak-side big away from the rim with 3 attackers on the floor is the way to go and 2) they basically said ‘hey Bam, play some quarterback for us.’

If you watch that 45 second video above, it’ll give you an idea of that in video form.

Miami completely played Bam above the break, and used guys like Herro and Oladipo as rim blitzers off the wing. It’s simply a way to beat the overplay, but it’s also a main priority of creating some offensive movement in the half-court while bending the defense.

Sometimes you’ll see a simple overhead pass over the top to an open cutter. Other times it’s a weak-side misdirection where two fly at Herro.

The point is that Bam Adebayo could be the clear connector to make this pairing work, specifically late in games. We’ve talked about letting Bam operate in more space. We’ve talked about giving him more of the offensive reigns.

This could end up being a way to blend all of that together.

Trust me: if I learned anything from those 97 minutes across 10 games of basketball, it was that they found certain pockets to make it work with Bam playing distributor. The next step will be combining all of these checkpoints into a strong offensive base.

The groundwork is there. Now it’s all about consistency.

I’m heavily focusing on select players in this piece, but that doesn’t mean I forgot about them working guys like Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, or Caleb Martin into this mix.

This is a season where they’re going to use more three-guard lineups whether you like it or not, and Jimmy Butler at the 4 could most likely be the closing go-to, while I don’t believe it’ll be the starting choice.

Yet since Lowry was out for so many games over this stretch, I didn’t get a good enough idea of the specifics of that lineup. But another lineup addition jumped off the screen to bump this 4 man group into a full 5 man lineup.

Max Strus.

While it may seem odd, adding a shooter to this mix with constant screening, sprinting, and gravity shifted their half-court diet. Not only am I noticing this now, but the coaching staff clearly picked that apart with the amount of times they levitated toward that insertion when it truly mattered.

In 29 minutes, the lineup of Herro-Oladipo-Strus-Butler-Adebayo recorded a 132 offensive rating and 95 defensive rating. Yes, a VERY small sample size, but that wasn’t a coincidental occurrence. They found a blend to make things look clean, and if you look at the two clips above, you’ll notice the floor open up much wider when he’s moving around.

I know there are a lot of layers to this, but there will be a lot of layers to this season. And one of those layers is that if they run it back, making the Herro-Oladipo-Butler operate at a high level will be key.

You won’t get 2022 playoff Butler in this upcoming regular season. So now it’s time to equally split up the load. Or better yet, a Herro emergence or Oladipo comeback dominance may push this in the right direction even quicker.

Either way, it’s going to be unleashed.

 

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How Bam Adebayo Can Be Unleashed in a Different Dimension

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The ball grazes off the rim and into the big man’s hands. From an early age, the center is taught to come down and immediately search for his point guard to flow into transition or set-up the team in the half-court.

Yet when you evolve into a 6’9 big with guard skills, like Bam Adebayo, it becomes time to shift the narrative a bit.

We often discuss the things on the surface for Bam, who is heading into his sixth season. The spots on the floor to operate in the half-court, a potential growth in post-up play, possible expansion to the three-point line, or the famous one, the individual aggression jolt.

But as Bam Adebayo was playing in the Miami Pro League last night with guys like Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, one specific play got me thinking about something that I harped on a ton during the regular season last year.

Just take a look:

Strips the ball, bolts into transition, and eventually soars up for the dunk down the middle of the lane.

It’s always a conversation to find Bam in spots to be a successful scorer for himself, but could a minor part of that just be over-utilizing himself after he gets the board? Or better yet, when somebody else gets the board and he leaks out?

A common phrase I’ve used throughout the season was that he’s much faster than any opposing 5 matched up with him. They simply just can’t keep up with him, and more importantly, that mental edge does wonders for Bam in the midst of things.

The reason I say that is because Bam Adebayo is a rhythm player. We often think of deep range shooters like Max Strus or Duncan Robinson as rhythm players once they see one drop, but Bam is by far the biggest link to that on the team.

Once he gets going early in games, he’s hard to stop. Just go back and re-watch game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals from a few months ago, where he led Miami to a win in Boston because of that early searching.

Plus, that led to his aggression on the break…

Wait a second, that looks pretty similar to the clip I showed from the Miami Pro League.

It’s not a coincidence though. It’s just his offensive formula.

We actually saw a bit of a transition surge from him in the regular season, since he scored 1.20 points per possession on 15.9% frequency.

For some context, the season before he scored 1.14 PPP on 11.8% frequency. That jump in volume should be credited to Kyle Lowry in many ways, since he was the igniter to get Bam moving in those spots, just as he would race to the baseline for a quick inbound every single play.

The Miami Heat as a team were bottom 10 in fast-break frequency, but I truly believe it’s more important for the team to have a highly efficient Bam in transition than the team as a whole.

Now when focusing in on the skill element of this, it’s pretty clear that an improved handle heading into this year would be very helpful for this type of thing.

We know he can move faster than others, and finish at a decently high level when barreling down the floor, but the worry would be that it could translate into a turnover problem. If that’s not the case and he could keep the ball on a string, they really have something.

When looking at some of the clips above, there’s no doubt he’s most comfortable when getting to that right hand. He’s pretty athletic around the rim, which may get lost in the mix when discussing Bam, meaning he has a variety of takeoff spots inside the lane on the move.

Looking at the Toronto Raptors last season, this exact process was picked up by Nick Nurse. The roster was full of athletic bigs who could put the ball on the deck, which led to them developing a bit of a grab and go system for anybody on the floor.

That’ll never be Miami’s offensive system, even if Lowry checks into that at times on the fly, but I believe it could be Bam’s system in a way. The entire goal for him as a player is to find angles to allow him to play freely. They’ve found openings as a roller at times, but the hand-off and post-ups sometimes led to a tensed up version of himself.

Playing in the open floor, though, is the way to get him loose as a scorer.

To add on, it doesn’t have to be narrowed down to baseline to baseline stuff. Looking at the clip above, possessions like this could be even better, right as the ball crosses half-court.

Even if he doesn’t fully become that above the break shooter, he can still be used above the break in motion. It’s all about finding ways to get him downhill, and the natural pressure of an unsettled defense may be the way to go.

Twenty seconds on the shot clock, Lowry swings it to Bam who finds himself on the right wing. Montrezl Harrell doesn’t have time to place himself into that deep drop, leading into a blow-by for Bam for the easy lay-in.

With Miami possibly entering the season with an all-in bet on internal development for the time being, Bam Adebayo will be the guy to watch. If he can elevate high enough, it’ll make all the difference.

Finding ways to turn him up a notch, and this could potentially be the kick-start to that.

 

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Omer Yurtseven Expanding His Game, While Expanding His Role

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When you hear the name Omer Yurtseven this off-season, it’s probably just him being thrown into a mock trade for Kevin Durant or Donovan Mitchell as a potential sweetener. But that’s not the case here.

The Miami Heat brought back Dewayne Dedmon on a decent sized contract well above his market value, basically meaning if a trade needed to be facilitated with extra money, he could be thrown in to make it work.

But still for the time being, he is a member of the Heat’s big man room and will compete for playing time in training camp. Instead this time around, I’m not so sure that he’s the one that will come out on top.

Miami already has holes in the front-court after PJ Tucker walked in free agency, but the expectation is that they will plug the starting spot through some type of trade at some point. As for the back-up big spot behind Bam Adebayo, the Omer Yurtseven-Dewayne Dedmon battle begins.

I will say, I was a proponent last season that Dedmon deserved that spot. Prior to the playoffs, he was playing at a decent level by doing his job as a drop big, rebounding presence, and screen-dive-repeat. And well, it still felt like Yurtseven was in that development stage.

Fast forwarding to now, a full off-season for Yurtseven has commenced and an aging year for Dedmon has taken place. Yet more than anything, it’s the flexibility Yurtseven provides with his natural abilities on the basketball court.

For one, we can’t start a basketball discussion about him without mentioning his rebounding. He enters the game with 50 seconds left in the game, and fills up 4 rebounds in the stat-sheet somehow. (Seriously, I don’t know how.)

Those aren’t just lucky bounces into his hands either. Every game he has played, it’s been clear he’s a natural ball magnet, which especially takes place on the offensive boards

When Bam Adebayo went down in late 2021, which bled into the 2022 calendar year, Yurtseven had his name called and he answered. He had a 2 month stretch of true high level play on the offensive end. During that stretch, here were some of his rebounding numbers: 17, grabbed 16 on three different occasions, 15, 14, 13 two times, and 12 three times.

Simply, it’s a gift.

Over that same span, he began flourishing offensively after scoring in double figures 11 times. But it’s not about the frequency of those numbers, it’s about how he was getting those numbers.

And that begins with his comfort growing in the pick and roll game…

When it comes to bigs and screen setting, you pretty much always have one of two options. (Well at least one of two *good* options.)

The first option is stay linear with the ball handler to create that 2-on-1, simultaneously forcing the dropping big to make an instinctive decision. While the second option includes a quick and decisive dive behind that second line defense, also known as the dropping big, to have a takeoff spot without contention.

In the clip above, Lowry threw a nice lead pass over the top, but the main takeaway is that Yurtseven chose the latter option.

Those are the plays that will give him more flexibility offensively, especially for Erik Spoelstra to tweak and put in different spots. Setting good and steady screens will be a priority, but the following decisions will be big time for his development, which I’m sure is a focus as we speak.

After showcasing his game within option #2, it’s also important to fully master option #1, which is not only something he will utilize more often, but it’s something he’s much better at.

Going back to Summer League of last year, what was the main element of his game that stood out aside from the rebounding? The natural touch in the in-between game. Catch, two feet down, one hand up for the floater. All net.

That flows into the first clip above, where he sets a hard screen to begin on Tyrese Maxey, while staying patient on the roll instead of rushing which puts you in danger of a moving screen. He stays aligned with Lowry flowing downhill and immediately goes into that three-step process of his that I just said.

Catch – two feet down – one hand up for the floater.

That’ll be his home-base a lot of the time, which makes you ask yourself about the alternative. Once defenses adjust to play a bit higher or have the recovering defender muck up the catch, what is his next go-to?

Looking at the second clip above now, this is what has me intrigued: the mid-range jumper two feet back from where the floater takes place. If that can be an alternative to blitzing like they did on Max Strus there, it gives the Heat much more space with the bench unit next season.

(Oh and by the way, Gabe Vincent and Omer Yurtseven bench pairing? One of the best pick and roll combos last season for some odd reason.)

The other part about young developing bigs is their ball control. Not as a ball-handler, but where they place it on the catch. If you see any coach or trainer with a big man from high school level to the NBA level, what is the preaching comment? Keep the ball up high.

Once you bring it down on other defenders level, there’s a very low probability you’ll be coming back up top with the ball still in your hands.

Yurtseven, though, hasn’t seemed to have had that problem much in his minutes.

The clip above for example is picture perfect big man rules. Embiid blitzes Butler, he feeds Yurtseven on the cut by throwing the pass high, and Yurtseven stays at that angle to go over the top of the defender for the easy dunk.

Simple stuff, but sometimes the simple stuff is most important.

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When thinking of the Heat’s developmental projects in the past, they always showcase a glimpse of something to be utilized once again down the line.

For Max Strus, it was the ball-handling reps in Summer League, which prepared him for the blitzes he would see and DHO creation off the extra dribble.

For Gabe Vincent, it was forcing him to play at the top of a 2-2-1 press whenever he entered, leading to him being a very sound defender at this stage of his young career.

And for Omer Yurtseven, it was January 8th in Phoenix. If you don’t remember what took place, it was the Yurtseven play-making breakout where he recorded 8 assists in a win. But more importantly, it was Spoelstra and the coaching staff running stuff through him against the team with the league’s best record…

No Bam Adebayo still so that means the offense runs through the creating guards, right? Wrong.

Running stuff like Chicago action, which is a pin-down into a DHO, as Yurtseven had to figure out quickly how to make initial reads. Hands it off to Strus with a solid screen, and he hits a three.

A few minutes later, we see a similar thing. Except they overplay it, and Yurtseven has to make the next read with no safety net. Strus fakes the hand-off and cuts, yet he doesn’t force the pass. Tucker cuts back-door down baseline and Yurtseven zips it to him.

That’s the stuff that made you stop in your tracks a bit.

Now it’s the second quarter, and they began handing him the keys to Miami’s post splits that were usually headlined by Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo.

A bunch of mis-directions in the lane, he takes two retreat dribbles to give him some space, and finds Herro open for the easy lay-up. The next play is the same thing, but he looks off Herro instead this time and hands it off to Kyle Guy who finds himself some space for the bucket.

Much like we always say Spoelstra always keeps something in his back pocket for big games, the Miami Heat always keep something in their back pocket for developing players.

I’m not saying Yurtseven will ever be asked to be a primary distributor, but opening up the possibility expands certain options.

Speaking of “expanding,” it’s not just about Yurtseven’s game expanding this off-season. It’s that it is simultaneously occurring with his role possibly expanding.

Training camp will be a big tell for a lot of these things, but if the positive elements of his game that have been displayed continue to grow, it’s hard for me to think he won’t be in the rotation this upcoming season if he is still on the roster.

 

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Betting on the Retooling of the Miami Heat

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A rumored deal is just a rumor – until the deal is signed. 

This is how it is in the NBA, or anywhere else in the world of professional sports.  

Rumor mills churn out and circulate just about anything there is to hear about player recruitment and transfers when contracts end at the close of each season, especially for top caliber players. 

It’s that time of the year when team owners and players get together, not in a huddle to execute a play, but to negotiate for salaries and perks within the ground rules set by their respective governing sports bodies.  

Sports analysts and bookmakers at sports betting sites then pause awhile to take a second look at statistics, historical precedents, player movements, and other data that could impact on the future of every team.

For fresh recruits and rookie players in the NBA, it’s called draft season, where young college standouts apply and make themselves available for the big league.  For seasoned players with ending contracts from their home teams, it’s time to negotiate for a better deal, or look elsewhere for another team with a more promising outlook.

Last July 3rd, speculations about Miami’s interest in a 19-year-old draftee from Serbia finally ended, with last season’s semi finalist actually recruiting Nikola Jovic. Yes, the 6’9” forward is 19 and is from Serbia.     

With old contracts up for renewal and new ones up for grabs, the Miami Heat, according to the NBA Central, is reportedly determined “to exhaust all options” to haul in Kevin Durant to beef up Miami’s sterling power forward Jimmy Butler and company.  

Durant is reportedly unhappy over his team’s unsuccessful bid in the16-team playoff round last season and is looking for a new band to strut his wares and win a third championship ring.  He has won two with the Golden State Warriors, in 2017 and 2018.    

KD might just be the guy to help Miami Heat win an NBA title in the forthcoming season, but the Brooklyn Nets are even more resolute to get a better package to replace their all-star poster boy.  And with the Nets in the third wheel, the Heat and KD romance faces a not so certain future.     

With the KD deal a bare possibility, the Heat is also in the mix of interested parties wanting to acquire Utah Jazz’ star Donovan Mitchell. Both Jazz and Mitchell are open to trade scenarios, if the price is right – which could actually go sky high.

After all, the Jazz knows the value of Mitchell, who averaged 23.9 PPG, 4.5 APG, and 4.2 RPG in over 300 NBA regular-season matches. With Mitchel in Heat uniform, betway other bookmakers could place them side by side with the Golden States Warriors and Boston Celtics in their list of favorites to win the championship next season. 

Utah’s rotations had once revolved around Mitchell and Frenchman Rudy Gobert, but Jazz has decided to rebuild after the team failed to advance in the first-round playoff last season. Gobert has moved to the Minnesota Timberwolves.   

Unlike Jazz, the Miami Heat is not in rebuild mode.  The Heat has re-signed Caleb Martin, Victor Oladipo and Dewayne Dedmon.  Veteran Udonis Haslem, the lone holdover of the team’s 2013 championship run, may continue to don the Heat uniform for a sentimental 20th season.  

However, free agent PJ Tucker is finalizing a three-year, $33.2 million fully guaranteed deal with the 76ers.  Markieff Morris has also expressed a desire to leave Miami to play for Philadelphia, where he was born and raised.  And rumors have it that he might just get his wish.

With the NBA’s rumor mills still twisting and turning, there’s nothing certain yet about the Miami Heat, except that Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra are working together to give it a big boost with a more potent game changer. 

And they’re not giving up on Durant just yet, according to the word on the street.

Victor Oladipo: The Secret Weapon Among Heat Speculation

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As the 2021 trade deadline passed by, the Heat pretty much labeled Victor Oladipo as the potential X-factor down the stretch of the season. The Heat made that move to put them over the top heading into the post-season, but that experiment only lasted 4 games before he went down with injury.

Consequently, he had a similar label this past year with his return date looming late in the season. The potential X-factor to put this Heat team over the top before their late run. He had some ups and downs, but ultimately came up big in his 8 regular season games and 15 playoff games.

But now we find ourselves in round 3, and could he still be that X-factor piece once again?

I believe even moreso.

In terms of on-court fit, it wasn’t the cleanest the entire playoff run. A bit of taking turns from lineups including Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler, while the Herro-Dipo bench insertion took some time getting used to.

When the three-point shot was falling, which wasn’t too often in the post-season for the entire Heat squad, it changed the dynamic of their half-court offense. We know what he can do as an attacker, and the isolation/shot creation flashes is what makes me think so highly of this re-signing.

But it isn’t just about his own skill and development, it’s about his role with the team that’s around him. And yet, that got me thinking, depending on every scenario out there for this Heat off-season, he plays a valuable role in each.

First off, when eyeing the big fish Kevin Durant, who is currently number one on the Miami Heat’s agenda, there are certainly many different packages being thrown around. A Tyler Herro headliner would be a tough sell for a player of that caliber, but if you throw the farm in a trial run to keep Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo intact with Durant coming in, that wouldn’t leave much else left on the roster.

At that point, it’s pretty much the least of your worries, but it would also hypothetically mean Victor Oladipo is still on the squad as the team’s 4th best player. He’d play the starting two-guard next to that big 3, in a pretty ideal role with much more versatility on the offensive end.

Since Oladipo can’t be traded until halfway through this upcoming season, many of these big off-season trades mean they still have that weapon locked into their current plan.

Moving onto the second bullet point on the Heat’s checklist, there lies Donovan Mitchell. Reports currently flying around that the Jazz are now fielding some offers for the young guard, while it’s well known that Mitchell would like to play in Miami if he were to leave Utah.

So, a deal would most likely look something like Herro, Robinson, young assets, and a whole lot of picks. As Herro would be on his way out, it’s important to note that Oladipo was on the sideline closely monitoring Herro’s 6th man of the year season, which parallels perfectly with the Dipo conversation.

“Hey Vic, we now want you to fully play the Herro role.” With Mitchell slotting into the starting lineup at that point, it would give Dipo the full reigns of the bench unit to run things the young crew of Vincent, Strus, Martin, etc. (Side note: I know many would be worried about starting back-court defense with Mitchell, but man that’s some defense off the bench.)

Flowing into the last option, it’s actually pretty similar to the Mitchell stuff. Let’s just say the other trade names don’t materialize and stay put for now, we now turn to internal developments.

In my eyes, Tyler Herro is the starting shooting guard of the Heat if he’s still on the team by training camp, but that’s not to say Victor Oladipo won’t put up a fight for that spot. Yes, the contract Miami gave him was his best option, but there’s an idea that he will be able to compete for big time roles such as a starting position.

Once again, I do believe it would go to Herro in that scenario, meaning Dipo can consequently have the 6th man reigns of full offensive control, which is solid in theory.

Scanning the Miami Heat’s current roster, one thing sticks out majorly: the team’s guard room is crowded. Too crowded.

Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, and potential summer league guys at the bottom of the roster like Marcus Garrett or Jamaree Bouyea on a two-way.

You may be saying, “Well it’s the same guard room as last year,” but that was only the case late in the season. To begin the year, Oladipo wasn’t healthy, Vincent and Strus types weren’t fully trusted, and Robinson was the comfortable starter.

Things change, and I expect things to change yet again. Just speculating, but that list of guards is a clear signal to me that something is coming in some capacity.

And whatever that may be, Oladipo will have a clear-cut role instead of the jumbled up confusion from this past season. Dipo will be meeting with Coach Spo after Summer League to talk about things like this, and that might just make all the difference in whatever direction the team elects to go.

 

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Miami Heat Summer League Preview: Who’s got a Shot?

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“What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas” is the famous saying about Sin City. But when we’re talking about Summer League basketball, what happens in Vegas can determine whether or not you have an NBA job next season. Myself and Tony Schwartz will be in the desert to cover the Heat during the Vegas Summer League so stay tuned for more updates this weekend. Here’s a quick look at the Heat’s roster heading into Vegas: 

 

Tier 1: Guaranteed Roster Spots: 

Nikola Jovic – After a slow start, Jovic shined in the Heat’s win over the Warriors on Tuesday. As expected for the 19 year old rookie, the game seemed to fast for him at times. His 25 point (5/7 3PT) and 9 rebound explosion showed the promise that Miami drafted him for. It’s just one game though, so continuing to show growth in Vegas where the competition level will rise is important momentum heading into his first season in Miami. For more on Jovic, check out Brady Hawk’s film breakdown. 

Haywood Highsmith – Highsmith had a solid showing at the California Classic – averaging 10.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.0 APG and 1.7 SPG. Most importantly, he showed the shooting ability that should keep him on the roster (41.7% on 4 attempts from behind the arc). While I’ve listed him on the “guaranteed” tier, Highsmith’s contract becomes fully guaranteed on July 15th so keep an eye on that date to see if any of the prospects below (or on another team) might impress enough to steal his roster spot. 

Omer Yurtseven – One of the stars of last summer’s team, Omer has yet to appear as he competes with the Turkish National Team. He is expected to be in Las Vegas but may not actually appear in any of the games. If he does suit up, it would provide the Heat an offensive hub and rebounding threat that does not exist on the rest of the roster. Players returning to summer league for the second year usually stand out – so best case scenario is Omer appears to “not belong” in this setting. 

 

Tier 2: Two-Way Contracts: 

Mychal Mulder – After a disappointing California Classic, Mulder will likely need to show shooting progression to maintain his two-way spot. He had the “green light” from Malik Allen to fire from behind the arc, averaging nearly 8 three-point attempts per game. But to be labeled as a “shooter” and only connect on 21.7% over three games is not promising. I believe he will shoot better in Vegas, but at 28 years old, what is his upside beyond shooting? 

Javonte Smart – Smart also was not overly impressive in the California Classic. In the first two games, Smart averaged 12.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, and 1.5 SPG. While he finished 5th overall in scoring during the showcase, his 27.3% field goal percentage and 21.4% three point percentage leaves plenty to be desired. The Heat’s offense did not break 70 points in either of

Smart’s two games, and without him Tuesday, the offense was much more efficient, powered by Allman Jr. and Bouyea at point guard. 

 

Tier 3: Emerging Prospects To Watch 

Kyle Allman, Jr. – After three games in California, you could argue Allman has been as good as anyone not on a guaranteed contract. With a few good games in Vegas, he could be the favorite to push into the two-way conversation. After going undrafted and spending three seasons overseas, the soon-to-be 25 year old Allman brings a mature game at point guard. His athleticism brings rim pressure that is scarce on the current Heat roster. He averaged a team-best 6 assists per game in California, highlighted by a 10 assist game against the Warriors on Tuesday. While creating for others, he also contributed 9.0 PPG and shot 35.7% on nearly 5 three point attempts per game. 

Jamaree Bouyea – I spoke about Bouyea in my Draft Preview article and he fit the description in the California Classic. Like Allman, they have downhill ability to get into the paint with their athleticism. Bouyea 6-7 wingspan has been on display with craft finishes and as an active defender. Bouyea finished the three game showcase with 13 points and 6 assists against the Warriors. While his shooting leaves plenty to be desired, his all-around point guard skills have emerged as someone who could compete with Smart and Allman Jr. for a two-way roster spot. 

Orlando Robinson – While Allman Jr. and Bouyea have shined at the guard position, Robinson has emerged as the Heat’s best interior player – averaging 8 points and 6 rebounds in California. At 6-11, 244 lbs, with a 7-4 wingspan, his measurables stand out. He’s more Kelly Olynyk than a traditional center, displaying promising passing and perimeter shooting abilities in college. He isn’t an elite athlete like Bryson Williams, but his skill level is much higher. If Omer returns to play in Vegas, it will diminish his minutes significantly but he should still have an opportunity to show his potential to stick around with the Heat on an exhibit 10 or two-way contract. 

Bryson Williams – While I don’t necessarily think Bryson is someone who will steal a two-way spot, I think he’s a strong possibility for an exhibit 10 contract. Physically, Bryson might be the most imposing athlete Miami has outside of Bam Adebayo. At 6-9, 237 lbs, with shoulders that barely fit inside of a standard door frame, he has drawn comparisons to a young Udonis Haslem 

by David Thorpe on the True Hoop podcast. His stats didn’t jump off the page in the California Classic, only 3.5 PPG and 1.5 RPG, but he seemed to display the grit Miami loves. As a developmental prospect, I’d personally love to see him stick around in Sioux Falls this season. 

Marcus Garrett – Last summer, his game-changing defensive abilities earned him a two-way spot on the Heat’s roster until he was replaced after midseason wrist surgery. Garrett is still recovering and his availability in Vegas is still in question. If he suits up, he would immediately be impactful on defense. The question will be whether he’s grown on offense over the past year to compliment his strengths. The Heat obviously saw something in him last summer, so he’s someone to keep an eye on regardless if he’s able to play this week.

 

Tier 4: Sioux Falls or Bust 

Jamal Cain – Only appearing in one game (8 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST, 3 STL) in California, the sample size on Cain is limited. Greg Sylvander reported that Miami had interest in him pre-draft, so he is someone who we should keep tabs on. The athletic scorer will have to show more in Vegas in order to push himself into the conversation of making the real roster. 

Jalen Adaway – Only averaging eight minutes in his two games in California, Adaway has a pretty limited statistical profile. However, his athleticism guarding full court, attacking the glass, and seemingly playing harder than everyone else on the floor could be something to watch in Vegas. He’ll need more minutes in order to make a significant impact and make the roster, but he could be someone to store in Sioux Falls and develop. 

Bryce Hamilton – Another player who has had limited opportunities so far, but Hamilton was solid on Tuesday with 9 points and 7 rebounds. He led the Mountain West in scoring last season, so if he can capitalize in his minutes in Vegas, he could be someone to monitor for Sioux Falls this season. 

Aaron Wheeler – Did not appear during the California Classic.

 

*****

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NBA Free Agency: Evaluating Every Major Signing From Day 1

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Every year, a week after the draft, the NBA free agency period begins. This is always an exciting time for NBA fans, as it provides some excitement during the dull period that is the off-season. While this free agent class isn’t as exciting as some from years prior, there still have been a couple of big names receiving some large deals. Let’s take a look at some of the big transactions from the first day of free agency.

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (5 years, $264 million)

This one is a no-brainer. The now two-time and reigning MVP got a nice payday today, receiving a supermax deal from the Denver Nuggets. Jokic would have been a free agent after the 2023 season, but after this extension he’ll be a Nugget for the foreseeable future. After willing his team to the playoffs this season, Jokic deserves every penny of the deal that makes him the highest paid player in NBA history.

Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings (2 years, $19 million)

The 24-year old shooting guard will now join the third team in his young career. Monk spent four years with the Hornets before joining the Lakers last year. Malik averaged 13 points per game and now joins a backcourt featuring his former college teammate De’Aaron Fox.

Victor Oladipo, Miami Heat (1 year, $11 million)

Oladipo has had a bit of an up-and-down career, but he seems to have found a home in South Beach. Oladipo was a former All-Star, and there was lots of hype around him at the time he joined Miami. Victor struggled to stay on the court in 2021, but he’ll get a chance to run it back with one of the top teams in the East.

Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards (5 years, $251 million)

Here, we have another star player getting extended with his current team. Beal has been the center of trade rumors in the past week, and those grew louder after he turned down his player option recently. Today, we learned why, as Beal gets a massive extension, one that makes him among the highest players in the league.

Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks (4 years, $104 million)

The Knicks got their guy. After unloading a ton of cap space in the past week, all signs pointed to the New York choosing Brunson as their point guard of the future. The 25-year old had a breakout season last year, and played very well in the playoffs. Was he worth $104 million? Only time will tell.

Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder (5 years, $87.5 million)

If there’s one guy who just had the best day of his career, it’s Lu Dort. Dort was one of the most underrated players in the league last season, averaging over 17 points and four rebounds. He’s an absolute force on the defensive end, and it will be exciting to watch him grow as a player in Oklahoma.

Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns (4 years, $214 million)

Early Thursday morning, it was reported that the Nets would want Devin Booker in return for any trade involving Kevin Durant. It’s clear now that won’t be happening. Booker, one of the elite scorers in the league will now be locked up in Arizona for a long time.

Overall, this was a pretty eventful first day of NBA free agency. For a group that didn’t feature a ton of big names, Thursday was still a whirlwind in the NBA world. There are still some big names remaining on the market, and the next few days should be interesting to watch.

 

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Jake Brockhoff***

  Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel
 
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Full Breakdown of Heat’s Latest Draft Pick: Nikola Jovic

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“With the 27th pick in the 2022 NBA draft, the Miami Heat select: Nikola Jovic.”

That was the call from NBA commissioner Adam Silver on draft night, as speculation continued to loom on what the Heat would do. Will they trade the pick? Will they take a Kentucky prospect still on the board? Do they grab a falling EJ Liddell?

And much like most Heat draft nights, you can’t predict the next move.

Once they officially took Jovic who has played overseas for many years, it created a youtube highlights spam to find out who this young kid really is.

While most people were just getting an initial look at him, Adam Simon, who is the assistant general manager for the Heat and on the front-line of these draft selections, noted that “he’s been on our radar for a couple years.”

So, let’s not waste anymore time. Who is Nikola Jovic on the court?

The Spot-Up Jumper

When evaluating any type of talent, starting with the outside jumper always feels key. I should clarify that he’s a 6’11 stretch big with guard like skills on the offensive end, which is quite the label to kick off a late first rounders description.

He shot 36% from three this past season with Mega Basket in Serbia, while Adam Simon noted that some of the extracurricular off the dribble shooting allowed that to decline a bit.

Yet the spot-up shooting is what truly stood out with his perimeter game, and they’re very confident in. Looking at some of the clips above, he has a grounded base, decently quick trigger, and a very smooth looking jumper.

Oh and let me remind you again, this isn’t a wing shooter. He’s around 6’10, 6’11. The shooting is far from his best asset when going about his offensive game, but it definitely is quite the icing on the cake. If this type of thing carries over against quicker and lengthier bodies closing out, then it really could be something.

A PnR Eye Opener: a 6’11 Creator

Now to the good stuff, pick and roll mechanics are always addressed for bigs when entering the NBA. But that usually includes long dialogues about a guy as a roller. Not the ball-handler in those sets.

Yet for Jovic, the ratio between being the handler and roller at his size was a bit wild to say the least. He was the team’s creator for the most part in Serbia, and his pick and roll control is truly an asset.

His solid handle, which I’ll discuss in a bit, allows him to slide into certain gaps, but his high IQ passing forces defenses to eye him at all times.

In the clips above, you see a pro level pick and roll player, and that’s not an exaggeration. The control to bounce off the recovering defender that just got screened, hold the dropping big in place, and drop the ball into your big isn’t just ‘another clip in the file.’

Yet in the following clips, you see his pick and roll gravity on display, as opposing teams continue to blitz out and double him to eliminate his scoring mechanics in space. And well, there are two more dimes to the rolling big.

I’m really intrigued to see what he looks like as a roller, which will most definitely be tested in Summer League, but the primary element of his experience will be to put the ball in his hands as much as possible. Do the passing tendencies carry over? Will physicality play a factor? Will the patience shown in these clips stick?

I actually believe so. There are things that could decline a bit at first for any player drafted, but there’s a lot of confidence in his pick and roll game in space, which he will have plenty of chances to showcase.

But let me just add: the PnR stuff isn’t just passing…

That previous clip where he kept getting doubled out may have made you wonder what has led up to this. So, watch this clip above for your answer.

Back in a normal drop, Jovic gets flowing downhill to his right, uses his shoulder to create some extra space, and steps back for a tough shot right over the contest. Bucket.

The key to a good pick and roll player is this exact combination: high IQ passer and an ability to create shots for yourself against different coverages.

The recovery speed will definitely be a lot quicker at the NBA level when he generates opportunities like this, but the length he has to shoot over the top is what makes this all come together.

So, Jovic-Yurtseven Summer League pick and rolls, anybody?

Tight Handle into Tough Shot Making

Can we keep the theme of this piece to: remember this guy is 6’11 by the way? Yes, yes we will.

He’s a very tough shot maker, yet the linking element to that is his tight handle allows him to get to his spots on the floor at any time. The second clip above is the perfect example: right to left crossover in isolation to get the defender back-pedaling, plants his right foot, and steps back for maximum space to let it fly.

Jovic has a deep bag of step-backs, which that type of foot-work is usually a staple for a lot of guys coming from overseas.

But the most important thing when talking about “tough shot making:” he’s been in a ton of those scenarios. Sometimes talented offensive players breeze through a college play-style by putting up points under the radar against base coverages, yet Jovic has had so much thrown at him for a guy that’s somehow 2 days younger than me. (lol)

As Adam Simon said last night, “he has the versatility of not just being a catch and shoot guy.” He even threw in the idea of a “nasty approach” in terms of his willingness to go and attack the basket. So yeah, the tough shot making is nothing new.

Running the Open Floor

Other than the PnR control, one of the first things that stood out about Jovic was that he wasn’t afraid to run the floor. If there was a turnover, he’s gone and has one hand up for his passer to locate where he wants it thrown.

He may be a big man, but he’s pretty quick specifically once the ball is in his hands. Yet while transition is always viewed as the “first man down the floor to score,” his approach of finding numbers and feeding others on the break was a really intriguing asset.

And if you’re thinking big picture, a Jovic-Bam lineup running the floor could be fun.

I also asked Adam Simon about his transition game translating to the NBA, which he said: “I think he’ll be good in transition and I think he’s got some versatility in the half-court as well. The handle’s there.”

And to tie a bow on this topic, his control in the open floor really makes me think it could carry over to the big league’s as well.

(Side note: the word “control” is just so fitting for Jovic in every offensive category. If you want the adjective that makes him good, there it is.)

The Low Post Game

Jovic had an interview with Slam magazine very recently, where he was asked about his go-to move down 1 late in a game. He quickly responded that he’d want the ball in the mid to low post, so he can flow right into a little fadeaway jumper.

Yeah, not the normal response.

When looking at his post game in some videos, there are a lot of times where it’s mostly using his size to his advantage once he gets low enough, which is always good to see, yet not always a major factor of NBA translation.

Now the turnaround jumper stuff with solid footwork, on the other hand, is the element of NBA translation.

When comparing to what the current Heat team needs, I think back to early regular season Markieff Morris. He began killing teams in his stints with the mid-post stuff, and it was clear that Miami lacked that more than anything else at the front-court position.

Bam Adebayo has the mid-post jumper, but there’s a big drop-off from there. PJ Tucker, Caleb Martin, Dewayne Dedmon, and Omer Yurtseven all played extended front-court minutes at some point or another, but none were mid-range threats to any degree.

So this will be a pretty fun wrinkle to keep an eye on. When a guy’s favorite move is one of your team’s biggest weaknesses, I’d say that’s a pretty decent fit.

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The defensive side of things doesn’t have much of a film dynamic. There just doesn’t seem to be much tape on that side of the ball for him aside from some blocks here or there, which makes this very interesting.

Jovic mentioned being “a big guard who can switch everything,” but that may be a bit of a stretch. There won’t be much expectation for him on that end, but I’m just curious if he will be a drop big or indeed switch in most scenarios.

After Pat Riley hammered home the defense point in a recent press conference, I asked him about where he thinks Jovic can develop on that end. “I think the kid’s athletic enough, quick enough, long enough to be able to play defense the way that we want.”

But much like anything, only time will tell. The Heat’s Summer League will kick off July 2nd as we get our first look at the twin towers of Jovic and Yurtseven.

I don’t know if this was the expected pick, but it’s absolutely intriguing to say the least. There’s a lot of potential sitting there, and the perfect place for it to be molded is in the Miami Heat’s developmental program.

 

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The Hypothetical X’s and O’s Fit of Bradley Beal with the Heat

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It almost feels like I’ve written this type of piece before, mostly because I probably have. The name Bradley Beal continues to strike conversations year after year, and the Miami Heat continue to be the linked team for a multitude of reasons.

But when addressing past rumors and situations where Beal and the Heat was potentially a possibility, I don’t think it’s crazy to say that it’s most realistic this time around.

On the Heat’s side, they need an experienced 3 level scorer of his caliber and currently have the assets to acquire him. On Beal’s side, he has the opportunity to relocate to Miami with known acquaintances Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, yet it all comes down to him making that decision.

Could he opt back into his deal, meaning a trade is probably looming? Could he opt out, restructure his deal, and continue to stay loyal to Washington? Both are possible outcomes, but much like I always say, this piece isn’t for that type of speculation.

This is about the X’s and O’s of how things would actually translate from a certain talent to a specific team. So let’s just hop right into it…

The Obvious Scoring Talent and Mid-Range Excellence

Step 1: Pure Isolation Dominance

When addressing Beal’s game, the starting point just has to be the pure shot creation and one-on-one game that he’s shown over time. He really is the linked definition of a 3 level scorer.

Even after having a slightly down shooting year from deep, there’s complete understanding of what he can do as a 3 point shooter off the dribble. If they send two, he can still find ways to hit slots and make plays.

The bread and butter of his game is no doubt the mid-range, though. Looking at some of the clips above, his mid-range game is different than most of the league’s maestro’s in that area.

That’s simply because most inside the arc pull-up shooters operate primarily off screens, since it’s easy to flow into that coveted pull-up against drop bigs. Just think about Chris Paul’s mid-range excellence as he snakes around screens into his comfortable spots.

Now relating that to Bradley Beal, he has an inevitable dribble package that can get him open when going one-on-one, just by thoroughly stopping on a dime, stepping back, or shooting over the top. As seen in those clips, even PJ Tucker and Bam Adebayo had a tough time keeping up with all of his tricks.

Beal had an effective field goal % of 47.1% in isolation this past year, and for some context, Tyler Herro’s mark was 35.7%. That’s probably the one major difference when comparing a growing talent and a current talent. The ability to make plays by yourself against some of the league’s best defenders.

Even with an awkward scoring season for himself this past year compared to his usual numbers, he still shot 46% on mid-range pull-ups, which is totally aligned with some of his best scoring seasons.

The last of the 3 levels is scoring at the rim, and that could be one of Beal’s most underrated elements. We immediately think about his ability to be a perimeter player, but his driving game just sneaks under the radar, while it’s blaring on opposing scouting reports on a nightly basis.

He attempted 8.3 field goals this past season off drives, which ranked as the 4th highest in the league, and still shot 47% from the field in those spots. He’s just simply elite in a lot of areas, and can be plugged into so many different scenarios offensively.

One of those being off-ball, which I will touch on extensively later in this piece. The other one being a chain reaction of on-ball shifting.

Step 2: Elite Screen Navigation

Being able to dominate in isolation is clearly needed when talking about the things this Heat team needs, but there’s still “keeping the main thing the main thing.” By that I mean this team still prides themselves on a heavy dose of on-ball screening, dribble hand-offs, and pick and rolls.

Yet he’s equally as talented in that department.

There are good pick and roll players, and then there are experienced, pro level pick and roll players. When watching the single clip above, you would quickly find out that Beal is the latter.

Comes off the screen, gives Bogdanovic the bump from behind, and still keeps a slow paced dribble alive as he snakes inside for a paint touch. He gets to the back of his rolling big, and immediately flows into shooting motion for the floater.

That type of control is just a different layer of offensive savant.

Much like I discussed in my latest Donovan Mitchell piece, the goal will be to take as much pressure off Jimmy Butler in the regular season as possible. Give Beal the keys during many of those pockets, instead of running so many of the team’s vets into the ground.

And well, this pure mix of an isolation bag and screen navigation is the exact type of player that can be trusted to get your team to a certain checkpoint.

This is a guy that just averaged 31 points per game for two straight seasons prior to this past year. It’s game changing for a coach like Erik Spoelstra to incorporate so many new wrinkles to the offense.

The Underrated Passing Element

If you followed this Heat season rather closely, just think back to November 20th. The Heat just beat the Wizards at home on the 18th, but took a flight right up to Washington to meet them again two days later.

The Heat were dominating that game as well, but Washington stormed back. The game got close, the Heat’s defense was focused on one player and one player only, and that one player made Miami pay for that.

Heat are up 96 to 93 with 2 minutes left and Wizards have ball. Caldwell Pope is being guarded by Bam, yet slips the screen for Beal to the right wing. Beal now has both Bam and Tucker standing in front of him as the focus was all eyes on him.

Swing to Pope. Tie game.

Fast forward to the next offensive possession, Beal begins to take Herro one-on-one on the left wing. Tucker knowing what’s about to happen, shades all the way over to the top of the key for maximum help. Beal then lobs it over the top to Dinwiddie on the right wing who was supposed to be guarded by Tucker, and he hits the triple to eventually beat Miami in an impressive comeback.

Why did I go through this entire dialogue from a random regular season game in November? Well, all that to say Beal’s passing has not only improved this past season, but he showcased it in big moments, which is intriguing to any contending team out there.

If you like base stats, Beal went from averaging 4.4 assists last year to 6.6 this season. Some of that has to do with a change in usage and role, while adding in the fact he played less games, but it’s still another proposition to a Heat offense that could use that type of play-making scorer.

Kyle Lowry had the ability to feed Bam on the roll quite a lot this season, but there wasn’t enough scoring pressure in those reps to make the combo elite.

Butler provoded more than enough scoring pressure in those PnR sets with Bam, yet the ratio of feeding him on the roll wasn’t a great number.

Now add in a guy like Beal who can clearly score out of the pick and roll, while also being able to feed Adebayo frequently following a screen. That’s how Bam Adebayo’s offensive game gets elevated.

Just look at the late season success of the Herro-Adebayo PnR. Herro was peaking as a downhill scoring threat, and most of all he was confident while only seeing single coverage. For the first two games of the 76ers series, neither one of them could be stopped, until adjustments were made.

The idea would be to create a similar formula without the worry of their water being turned off, since it’s just harder to do so against a guy like Beal.

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Excelling in Miami’s Movement Offense

So to save the best for last, this is why I believe Beal is the best option of the bunch when discussing guys like Mitchell and Zach LaVine. (Not that the Heat can choose the “best option,” but I guess we can still speculate that.)

After discussing all of the things that Beal is as a player, the main reason he fits the Heat’s offense best is because he’s equally as effective as an off the ball threat.

No, this doesn’t mean standing in the corner while Butler creates since he can hit the spot-up triple. It actually means that he can be freed up off the ball to flow into his best looks.

It’s hard to do this as a one-man show in Washington since all the focus is on him even if he doesn’t possess the ball at a given time. Yet we have seen some flashes from him over time that could be expanded upon.

How can it be expanded? Insert him into a nonstop movement offense next to a pure point guard (if the deal can be made without including him), a star powered Butler, elite screeners like Adebayo and Tucker, plus some level of shooting on the weak-side.

For some examples, let’s start with the first clip above. Beal swings the ball to the left wing and clears. The ball finds the big in the middle of the floor, just to set up Chicago action, which is just a weak-side pin-down into a dribble hand-off.

Beal flies off the pin-down and receives the DHO from Gafford, knocking down the pull-up three from the top of the key. We can watch highlight crossovers and crafty finishes from him all day, but this is the type of stuff that makes it effective in theory. This is the stuff that the Heat organization would be eyeing.

Fast forward to the second clip above, it seems as if we could be seeing a similar thing. Beal gets off the ball, looking to flow into the weak-side as a relocation point. Instead, he reverses direction back to the strong-side corner with Gafford ready for the pin-down. The angle of his cut forces his defender to fly up to the wing, giving him an open corner three off the catch.

That’s exactly the Heat’s offense. Just re-watch that imagining Bam as the passer, Tucker as the hammer screener, and well, Beal as the movement shooter. This is what I mean when I say Spoelstra can add these extra wrinkles when bringing in a player of this caliber.

Once again, things will have to break just right for this Beal thing to be a real possibility, since it comes down to him opting in and saying his preferred destination is Miami. Trade packages would be rumored, the timing of things would be important.

But there’s no reason not to talk about fit this time of year, and even though star players can fit in any system, it’s pretty evident that Beal fits Miami more than many of the guys in social media jersey swaps.

 

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What Would Donovan Mitchell’s On-Court Fit with Heat Look Like?

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Is a better world coming? If you read way too far into quotes on hats while sitting next to your team’s franchise player, then maybe so.

But it’s more than just that silly quote.

It feels like the name Donovan Mitchell has come up often when it comes to the Miami Heat searching for the biggest stars around the league with a subtitle of the possibility they could break away from their current organization.

Yet with so much unknown around Mitchell and the Utah Jazz at the moment, it creates an intriguing dynamic.

This should be prefaced by saying that all things must align to initially kick off this process of getting Mitchell out of Utah and onto a team like the Heat. He would have to ask out, say Miami is his preferred landing spot, and Pat Riley and company would need to put together a good enough package that the Jazz would be willing to accept.

So, there are some obstacles. But as Riley once said, there also are none.

Even though it may be a bit early in off-season time, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t prepare for the scenario that this process accelerates quickly. This isn’t about mock trade packages or silly updated Finals odds. Let’s just look into what this may look like on the court if it got done…

The Driving Game: Elite Control/Paint Touches

Finding that three-level scorer seems to be on many minds when it comes to the Miami Heat. Could that be internally? Yes. Could that be through a trade such as Mitchell coming available? Absolutely.

When looking over some Mitchell film a bit more, one thing is blatantly clear: his pick and roll attack and control in those paint touches is simply second to none. Turn-around jumpers, little floaters, physical attacks (which I’ll discuss next), and pure athletic finishes.

But more importantly than that, there’s a certain number that has stuck out on this Heat roster that is a Mitchell strength across his entire career.

The Heat ultimately fell short in the playoffs because the shooting tailed off, but another thing that occurred was that driving numbers were slowly decreasing from Jimmy Butler’s supporting cast, including Tyler Herro having a tough time getting to the rim once that post-season switch was made.

In Mitchell’s five seasons in the NBA, his attempts less than 10 feet from the basket have increased from the regular season to the playoffs. His role is clearly different when it comes to his usage sky-rocketing in general, but it isn’t easy to continually get those paint touches and high efficiency looks when teams lock in on that game-plan to stop you in a specific series.

In the playoffs this year, Mitchell shot 55% from the field off his drives, while averaging the 4th most drives per game in the league.

We had a similar discussion about rim pressure when Kyle Lowry arrived on the scene last off-season, but that was one expectation that didn’t come into fruition since his burst wasn’t at the usual standards for extended pockets of time. He did great as a lead play-maker, but rim pressure was noticeably not a consistent element.

Yet for Mitchell, that’s exactly what this would be for Jimmy Butler, which flows into my next point…

Physicality as a Second Attacker?

If this move was hypothetically made, I think there would be a big expectation for Mitchell to be the first offensive option as an attacker for the majority of the regular season. Emphasis on regular season. The goal would be to give a good chunk of usage to the young blood, so Butler’s skill can be preserved for the long haul, before he picked up the name-tag of primary option once game 82 passed by.

So if that time came, a secondary attacker of Mitchell’s caliber would be scary to say the least. As much as I talked about on-ball control and crafty finishing, he’s just as physical as it gets when talking about straight line drives.

Getting to the second level is one thing, which many guys on the Heat’s current roster possess, but the ability to strongly take it up on that drop defender or help-side guy instead of immediately going for the pull-up is a change of pace.

In the Heat’s system, I’d imagine we’d see a lot of those drive-kick-drive scenarios to maximize personnel and keep the defense totally at bay. Butler drives in the right slot with help at the nail, kick-out to Mitchell on the left wing with the second drive coming and a rotating defense. That type of stuff is tough to beat with two star level players and physical attackers, which would make those offensive wrinkles interesting for Coach Spo and the coaching staff.

The Pull-Up/Self Creation Dynamic 

Now, when people think about Mitchell or any star powered three-level scorer on the market, this is the stuff being imagined. Just a hooper making things happen with the ball in his hands.

Isolation buckets, some flashy cross-overs, and most importantly, a solid pull-up game to fully balance out the previous stuff discussed off the attack.

This past season, Mitchell avergaed the 5th most pull-up threes per game in the NBA, while shooting them at a 36% clip. For some context, Steph Curry attempted the 4th most pull-up triples and shot them at a 37% clip.

Now for even more context, Herro had a great pull-up shooting season as well this past year while shooting 37.5% on pull-up threes, yet he only attempted 3.4 a game in comparison to Mitchell’s 6.2 a night.

Once again, this all feeds into the usage and role thing when it comes to his current position in Utah, but it’s always expected that those numbers would further increase in Miami’s current offensive system next to guys like Butler and Adebayo.

Yet to close off this section, it’s probably more about creation than it is actual pull-up numbers. Being able to make a team pay if Butler gets doubled, while also having counters for doubles himself when that time comes. Simply because he can create off the dribble at a high level mainly through the defensive fear of a strong attack or blow-by being his next move.

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Oh, the Mitchell-Butler Pick and Roll

Finally, I must say when it comes to certain pairings, some of us may be focused on the wrong one. Many immediately think about the Mitchell-Adebayo pick and roll, which does make you think a bit.

Mitchell loves operating out of the high pick and roll because open space is his closest friend, simultaneously thinking about the success Herro and Bam had late in the season with the high PnR pairing.

But for some reason, the Mitchell-Butler sets feel to be the most intriguing.

Two seasons ago, what was the best PnR pairing for Miami? Goran Dragic-Jimmy Butler pick and roll.

What set was run late in games this past season when a fully healthy Heat team was on the floor? Kyle Lowry-Jimmy Butler pick and roll.

Butler has been incredible in every category since joining Miami, but he’s been unlocked as a pretty dominant force on the short roll, since he can bull-doze, turn into a post-up, or make reads as his play-making skills make its way into the picture.

Now add a scorer of Mitchell’s caliber, who just averaged 26 points a game this past season, into that PnR equation. Looking at some of the clips above, we saw Mitchell’s role in the playoffs turn into a roll man feeder to his role players, since Dallas did a fantastic job of trying to stop his one-man game in the half-court.

He continued maximizing the court with 4-on-3’s, which shifts back to my thinking of inserting Butler into those spots: how do teams generally choose to defend that combination in an empty corner?

Giving Erik Spoelstra those type of outlets in the half-court, and more specifically in clutch time, really could be the fix to the Heat’s offense in itself.

Now, I know the other thing everybody’s thinking about is that this is completely offensive centric and there’s another side of the floor. Yes, it’s pretty clear that Mitchell has been a negative defender during his tenure in the NBA so far, but there are two points that must be made.

For 1) surrounding him with a cast of characters like Butler, Tucker, and Adebayo make things look much different, just as they’ve done for so many role players over the last few years by turning them into serviceable defenders. And 2) if he keeps up this offensive success that I discussed in this entire piece, the defensive stuff doesn’t stand out as much.

It has stood out for guys like Herro this past playoff run because the scoring averages weren’t completely transferred over from the regular season to playoffs. If Mitchell does what he does best which is score the basketball at an extremely high level, that topic isn’t even probably being discussed.

Anyway, this is still extremely hypothetical. As I said earlier, things will have to completely fall into place this off-season to even get this thing started. But in this fantasy world of predictions, I would say that this Mitchell fit wouldn’t be half bad for what Miami is trying to do next to Jimmy Butler.

 

 

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