Tag Archive for: Miami Heat

Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to the Nets

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The Miami Heat were looking for a bounce back night after being embarrassed three games in a row, and well, they followed all of that up with an absolute obliteration from the Brooklyn Nets.

The team isn’t in a good spot right now, obviously. The offense has hit a wall, hard, and just simply seems like it can’t hang with a Durant, Irving offense when playing this lackluster.

But, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: The inconsistency of the Heat’s shot profile on display.

As the Heat fell behind by 21 at the half, many questions are presented. Some could be asked about Miami’s interior defense falling apart, but a lot of their buckets was Kevin Durant doing Kevin Durant things. But the main issue: the offense. When I say there’s inconsistencies in the team’s shot profile, I mean from possession to possession. Threes aren’t falling, the off-ball sets aren’t as crisp as they were early on, and their best players aren’t able to make plays on any given possession. It’s clear that the offense has hit a wall in that way. Kyle Lowry had moments, Tyler Herro was inefficient to start but did good things. But Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler have the eyes on them. Butler needs to figure out himself offensively at this stage, and Adebayo needs an obvious shift in his spots and scoring outlook.

#2: So, about Victor Oladipo…

Watching Victor Oladipo enter the game tonight, things quickly spiraled out of control from there. Not to say that was on him, but there are clear takeaways from getting an extended look at him. For starters, the gelling hasn’t been there. Tyler Herro and him haven’t been the greatest combo in that back-court, and Jimmy Butler has been mirrored with him a ton, which in my opinion isn’t a good thing. The reason for that is we’re watching two guys run the offense as the defense goes under the screen. We know how they defend Butler, but teams are daring Dipo to make that quick pull-up. Safe to say I’m not the biggest fan of those two together, as well as the constant pairing of Dedmon. If you’re going to go to Dipo, give him Bam who is a quick roller and shooters. If not, I think Gabe Vincent plugging back in come playoff time is a real possibility.

#3: PJ Tucker’s offensive need.

When talking about PJ Tucker as of late, we quickly equate every game he struggles to needing rest and simply missing that open corner three. But the thing about his play early in the season, was that he wasn’t strictly that corner threat. We praised the team for elevating his game from past corner spectating with past teams, but that has declined heavily since the all star break. Guys returning meant less offense would be worked through him, leaving me with a simple question: why? To maximize spacing in a lineup with Tucker and Butler, weak-side spot-ups isn’t the way. When the Heat caught some momentum in the 3rd against the Warriors after the altercation, the offense was being worked through Tucker for a good period of time. Some post-splits. Some fake hand-offs. Just something to give him more of a selection.

#4: Oh hey, Goran Dragic’s back. Yeah, that’s my takeaway from this one…

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#5: Time to look at the upcoming stretch.

This is about as bad of a 4 game stretch as it possibly gets. A loss to the 76ers without Joel Embiid and James Harden. A loss to the Warriors without Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, including a big bench blow up. A loss to the Knicks where the had a 17 point lead in the 4th. And now, an obliteration against the Brooklyn Nets. I’ve talked enough about that past stretch, so let’s take a quick look up ahead. They play Monday night against the Kings, which is the ultimate team to get back in the win column against, but we know how things have gone. Then Wednesday is against the red hot Boston Celtics, who provide their own problems with that switching defense. This blends into an April back to back on the weekend against the Bulls and Raptors, both on the road. The path isn’t getting much clearer, but the teams they’re playing aren’t the issue. It’s themselves. And there are clear issues.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Knicks

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The Heat led the entire way against the New York Knicks on Friday night, yet folded late in the 4th.

They were outscored in the 4th 38-15. Clearly, problematic…

#1: A different look bench group gives Miami a decent boost.

When looking at Miami’s bench unit no matter who is playing on any given night, it’s always guard heavy. The way to know that is because Caleb Martin and Max Strus switch off playing the 4 from lineup to lineup. Yet tonight, those two guys were the smalls in the bench lineup. With Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, and Victor Oladipo out, those two along with Markieff Morris and Dewayne Dedmon were the 4 next to one starter. I was a bit skeptical about the offensive spacing, but it went way above expectations. The reasoning: Morris and Dedmon spacing the floor effectively allowed it to work. Morris hit two threes and Dedmon added in a corner triple in that first half, opening up the motion sets for Strus and a driving lane for Butler. That group clearly didn’t lack size, which is a good change of pace from previous games.

#2: Jimmy Butler assertive and dishing early.

After the bench altercation in the last game against the Warriors, Jimmy Butler came out in the exact manner that you’d hope. Not only for aggression purposes, but using that into his facilitating favor. He had 6 assists in that first half, but that doesn’t illustrate the “over-passing” he was providing on the floor, which I’m not sure was coincidental. His chemistry looked as good as ever, as two late buckets in the second quarter consisted of him waving on the opposite side of the floor in direction of Kyle Lowry, while the Knicks were shooting free throws. Lowry bombs it, Butler takes advantage. He was taking smart shots, getting to the basket when he wants, and was really physical in the painted area. A good thing to see at this point in time.

#3: Caleb Martin is the ultimate Swiss Army knife, but why didn’t he close?

When hearing Coach Spo talk about Caleb Martin after games, you often hear the phrase “swiss army knife.” The reason is that you can place him in so many different lineups, against so many different match-ups, and a new thing that was picked up on, in so many different positions and spots on the floor. As I said a little earlier, Martin saw a shift up to the 3 with Morris and Dedmon entering the lineup. But forget the 3, since he actually went from corner spot-up and dunker spot spacer to running Miami’s actions. It’s clearly not his biggest strength, but he can get the job done, by making insert passes and exploding to the rim from time to time either for a bucket or some needed rim pressure. We know he’s a rotation lock, but this stuff can’t just slip under the radar. And more importantly, when Strus is getting hunted late like he was, Martin needs to be utilized as a closer. But that’s not on him.

#4: Bam Adebayo having moments as tough shot maker, yet quickly blends into team closing issues.

After Bam Adebayo finished off his third quarter stint, he walked to the bench with 16 points on 6 of 6 shooting. Usually when you see those type of clean and perfect field goal percentages, it equates to easy looks or more opportunities as a roller. Yet, that wasn’t really the case. His shots were far from easy, as he was taking some tough shots while knocking them down at a high rate. Early on, he went to a half spin fake before spinning baseline twice in a small portion of time. Why is that important? Well, for one, it felt like that was just added to his bag recently. And secondly, it was showing that his on-ball usage was a bit higher, for the lack of guards that I mentioned before. He even ran a few inverted pick and rolls with Kyle Lowry, which shouldn’t have the adjective “few” attached. When that is seen, good things happen. But lastly, good things didn’t happen late for this team tonight. All of the good I talked about from top players, disappeared in closing time, which continues to be a mystery.

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#5: Jimmy Butler vs Udonis Haslem? Here’s my final statement:

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Warriors

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The Miami Heat faced the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night, and it wasn’t your normal game.

Golden State got hot without Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, which caused chaos on the Heat sideline. A Udonis Haslem-Erik Spoelstra-Jimmy Butler scuffle occurred, pretty much sparking this group through and through…or the exact opposite.

Anyway, here are some takeaways from this game…

#1: Kyle Lowry completely shifting the nature of this offense.

The Heat had some rough patches, as I’ll get into shortly, but if you were reflecting back at halftime, Kyle Lowry should be your primary takeaway. When you imagine one specific part of his game that needed an increase, it has always been that pull-up three. He’s an incredible play-maker in the PnR, but the way to elevate that is to take that pull-up when it’s there, which eventually shifts the defense. That happened in the second quarter, when after he buried the deep three, Miami’s offense turned. Next possession, he took a baseline drive after the shot fake, pulling the entire defense his way before looping a pass to Dewayne Dedmon in the corner for three. Right after that, he speeds pace back up by bombing it to Jimmy Butler for the lay-up. All of that is great, but it all spirals from that pull-up triple. Not by making it, but simply by taking it.

#2: The ups and downs of Miami’s offense and defense.

Aside from the positive of Lowry in that first half, one other thing strictly stuck out about this team: the inconsistency from play to play. Part of that may be that there’s 10 games left in the regular season, so they are coasting, but that just shouldn’t be the case. The offense came out flowing really well, but hit a wall. That wall could also be referred to as Jimmy Butler being subbed out on a night the team is without Tyler Herro. But we’ve talked enough about the offensive issues recently, while the defensive droughts are new. As they were out-hustled and out-energized in Philly, there were glimpses of that in this one. The paint numbers for the Warriors were wild, just due to the defense overplaying ball-handlers and allowing easy back-cuts, specifically baseline. That stuff needs to be cleaned up. Part of that was Victor Oladipo adjusting and Max Strus simply getting burnt off-ball, but consistency defensively is a major tool.

#3: So we saw Markieff Morris? And Dewayne Dedmon? Yes, and that’s the playoff theme.

When watching Markieff Morris to begin this game, it wasn’t his best stint in a Heat uniform. He was a primary reason for the interior scoring being so lopsided, and his defensive quickness just wasn’t there completely. With that said, Miami needed some type of shift, so Coach Spo quickly looked in the direction of Dewayne Dedmon to give them some size, rebounding, and an interior deterrent. But as I’ve said a lot, this team won’t have a back-up big when the post-season rolls around. They will have multiple. The fact that the coaching staff has been getting an extended look at Morris at the 5 has nothing to do with Dedmon exiting. There are match-ups where the spacing will be more important in that 8 minute stretch, and there will be nights where the size and rebounding is much more useful. They’re role players, so the role will shift depending on the series, and even the night.

#4: Jimmy Butler vs Udonis Haslem?

Jordan Poole hits another wild three to cap off a 19-0 run to begin the third quarter. As the Heat go to the bench, things go south a bit. Jimmy Butler and Udonis Haslem going at it, players jumping in to pull them away, Erik Spoelstra fuming. It a moment that represented two things: either the floor opening up beneath this team as the beginning of the fall. Or, the spark this team needed, not just in this game, but this season. Well, the next stretch pretty much gave you that answer for the time being, as Bam Adebayo and company made the subs go sit back down in the third to finish what they started. Offensive and defensively, they were locked in. Not stupidly, but they were locked in. That’s the energy this team has missed, and Udonis Haslem may have just done something.

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#5: Bam Adebayo is the key to this team’s success.

I can sit here and have minor discussions about PJ Tucker’s post split success, the excellence of Butler and Lowry when they’re clicking, or even the consistent scoring burst Tyler Herro adds. But if I can be completely honest, through all of that, Bam Adebayo is the key to this team taking that next post-season leap. In that big third quarter, it was a bit blurry with all of the off the court stuff that occurred, but Bam Adebayo continued to have moments of interior dominance just due to the fact he had more energy than anyone else on the floor. He looked like an alpha. But the issue is that he only has moments as that alpha. If both him and this team want to jump to that next tier, they simply need alpha Adebayo. Can they get that? Yes. Will they? I have no idea.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to the 76ers

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The Miami Heat faced a short handed Philadelphia 76ers without Joel Embiid and James Harden, yet couldn’t slow them down.

Tyler Herro continued to get hunted late for all of Philly’s offensive possessions, and Tyrese Maxey couldn’t be stopped.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: So, about this group’s energy in this one…

We often talk about this Heat team in a bright light of high energy and not taking defensive possessions off. Yet, in this one, I couldn’t give this team those adjectives. We’ve seen a trend where less talented teams catch Miami off guard through playing with more energy or purpose, and that was the case in this one with no Joel Embiid or James Harden. The only guy on this roster that was playing with his usual energy was Caleb Martin, since his close-outs and off-ball sticking wasn’t down by any means. And speaking of those close-outs, that’s the easiest way to judge a team’s energy in the game of basketball. We saw that picture the last time against Philly where Embiid was surrounded by 3 Heat jerseys, which clearly means there’s a mental step back when reading that injury report.

#2: Jimmy Butler keeping Miami alive early offensively.

Jimmy Butler finished the first half with 15 points, 4 assists, and 4 rebounds, which seemed like he was the only guy able to efficiently dissect this Philly defense and keep Miami’s offense alive. A lot of that refers back to past points about rim pressure, since 7 of his 15 came from the free throw line. When guys like Tyrese Maxey would switch onto him, he would take advantage, which is the only thing you could ask. Big picture, this defense looks a lot different without Embiid, which changes up the usual Herro PnR dissection that we’re used to, but it kicks right back in Butler’s facor with constant switching and inside presence. In this one, he was it in that first half.

#3: For future reference, a key exploitable element against Philly in the post-season.

To zoom out a bit more, and away from the Butler dominance against switching, it should be mentioned that won’t be a Philly post-season wrinkle. Most lineups will consist of drop with the occasional blitz, which is why guys like Herro are mentioned often in this match-up. But along those same lines, Duncan Robinson is a big piece to this match-up. Looking at this game tonight, there’s been a trend whenever Philly faces him that they’re going to overplay him a ton. They will double out, push him away from the 3 point line, and have Mattisee Thybulle trail him all night. And that type of stuff opens up the back-side actions a ton. Miami wants that focus to be on him in that way, so others can counter, which happened in moments in this one, referring back to Butler’s first half attack. But if there’s a playoff match-up for Robinson, he can really open things up in a potential second round series against the 76ers.

#4: Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo: the need for consistency in shot profile.

As Philadelphia got in a rhythm defensively by stopping Miami’s primary attacks, something was noticed. It consisted of a lot of funneling inside the lane, which is usually a formula for big time rim protectors. In this case, it was just altering Miami’s looks. That blended into a Kyle Lowry realization, where he all of a sudden began pulling that three-ball as they would go under on screens. Nobody is worried about that shot dropping, but it’s just about taking it so Miami can open up their main sets. The other guy who works into the convo of shot profile consistency is Bam Adebayo. He got on a roll in the third quarter, and he did it in one simple way: using his body around the rim. When he takes contact, it gets him in a rhythm to go up and score, which gave him 10 points in half the quarter. But like I said, the ability to consistently go to it just wasn’t there. It’s situational.

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#5: A reference point to rotation questions.

If you want to know what the Heat’s nine man rotation may look like in the post-season, it felt like this game would be a great reference point. For starters, there are many advantages to playing with Markieff Morris as your back-up big, but it’s also not a consistent thing they’re going to lean toward. With that said, it fits perfectly with what’s been said about Dewayne Dedmon and him switching off as the back-up 5, not only series by series, but game by game. The reason we’re comparing Morris and Dedmon, and not Morris and Martin, is because that isn’t a conversation at this stage. Martin is a complete lock, and it’s for reasons that can go unsaid. The final evaluation includes the hot and cold nature of Max Strus. The reason I’ve been calling him a situation piece who can plug in when needing a boost, is due to the ups and downs that we’ve seen. When he’s cold, it’s hard to stick with that move, since it bleeds into defensive problems heavily. He will still be used, but not as a rotation lock in a series.

 

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The Markieff Morris Experiment, Not Actually an Experiment?

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As Markieff Morris made his Heat return about a week ago, the role he would play was fairly obvious. Around that time, Caleb Martin just went down which left a glaring hole at the back-up front-court positions, needing to be filled.

That said, the role many had in mind was regular season bench filler, somebody who can give some of the vets like PJ Tucker some games off, and ultimately eat up some minutes across this final stretch of the regular season.

And while it’s only been 3 games that we’ve seen him play since his return, the entire perception on him with this team has shifted completely. Well, for me at least.

Erik Spoelstra has shown all season that he has major flexibility and trust all the way down the roster, but almost all of the surprising lineup adjustments have been with the Heat’s guard depth. Plugging in Gabe Vincent or Max Strus into different spots, or even moving Caleb Martin down to the 4 in most situations.

When I asked Spo about that exact flexibility with Martin, he responded, “He’s the definition of a swiss army knife. You can plug him into a lot of different roles and with different lineups, and he’ll find a way to make it work.”

“He can defend so many different positions,” he continued. “We’ve missed that, his presence on the ball. And then those plays inbetween. Those are winning plays that don’t necessarily show up anywhere, but they’re the hustle plays, the deflections, the extra possessions, the tip-outs, the cuts. All of those different things contribute to winning in a big time way, and it’s great to have him back.”

A lot of the Caleb Martin and Markieff Morris talk all season has been an either/or thing, which has heavily leaned toward Martin with his constant production all season. Yet after getting a long look at the rotation on Friday night against the Thunder, it may be an “and” instead of “or.”

Dewayne Dedmon sitting had a lot to do with him needing some rest in a big way, but that was also Spoelstra getting a look at something that wasn’t a one time thing. You can experiment against a team like the Thunder, and I don’t believe it’ll be an experiment for long.

When looking across the Eastern Conference, there are many match-ups where you can survive with Morris as your back-up big. It gives this team a different dynamic, or better yet a consistent dynamic, since the drop-off between the starting center, Bam Adebayo, and back-up big, Markieff Morris, won’t be too major in terms of offensive operation.

They can continue to switch on the defensive end, and as Spo has mentioned frequently, he can be used in a “Bam-like role.”

But more importantly, Morris is just himself every day of the week.

Consistency in shot making is one of the most closely watched things in the sport of basketball. A game finishes, you may glance at the points scored first, but the next thing your eye lands on is the field goal percentage.

Yet, consistency in shot selection may be more important than consistency in shot making, specifically when talking about role players.

Looking at the clips above, this is where every bucket of Morris against OKC came from essentially. He gives this team a mid-range element that they don’t really have among their big men, except for Adebayo.

PJ Tucker, Caleb Martin, and Dewayne Dedmon all have their biggest strengths, but among those things isn’t a mid-post presence or even a mid-range jumper. Hence, the comparison to Bam’s role comes into play.

I asked Morris about that connection between their games, which he said, “Bam, his offensive game is evolving. I always tell him he’s trying to steal my game from back in the day…I just try to takeover the role, and just try to do the exact same thing. Be aggressive when I have smalls, make plays in the pocket, and just make the game easier for my teammates.”

The final thing he mentioned about being aggressive against smalls is something that Morris has mastered completely, and that’ll be the next torch passing in terms of Bam’s game.

He sees so many reps on that mid-post insertion, which usually is the initial feed before Miami runs their post split, but the main part to mention is what comes after the passing lanes are blocked.

When all of the cutters are blanketed, that’s an immediate signal to Morris to work his defender as low as possible, before turning right into that mid-range fade. That’s his shot, that’s his spot, that’s his game. And the clips above clearly put a stamp on that.

As seen to start this possession, it’s an example of the defense eliminating all options within the post split. On queue, Morris gets into good position, turns, pump-fakes, then lets the shot go. Yes, this one clanked off the rim, but it’s more about the process of good looking possessions and reads.

Now, the Heat ended up getting the rebound, which leads right into my next point.

After the miss, Morris slowly fades all the way out to that corner three for maximum spacing purposes. Tucker flows to his right for a potential DHO, but fakes it instead due to the overplay. As he drives to the basket, why is he able to finish like that at the rim?

Morris’ spacing doesn’t allow his defender to pull down for the tag. Clearly, there’s something with these small ball lineups, and more specifically, the Tucker-Morris combo.

I asked Spo how he feels about this front-court pairing moving forward, which he said, “I’m interested in it, for sure.”

“It felt like there’s space, there’s toughness,” he continued. “The skill-set that Markieff brings really fits this group, and it’s not like we’re reinventing who he’s been, this has been who he’s been his entire career…It’s something we’ve talked about a lot as a staff, and I’m glad that we were pushed into that immediately in the third quarter. There were a lot of positives with that unit.”

When listing those positives specifically, Morris and Tucker being effective together isn’t as much about them being successful themselves. It’s about what it creates for others.

And among those “others,” nobody benefits more from that offensive spacing than Tyler Herro. His driving lanes open up, guard screening becomes more effective which leaves Max Strus slip screens as a key offensive element, and defenses have to make decisions on those corner shooters.

Speaking of those decisions, much of it comes down to the readiness of Tucker and Morris to immediately pull before the close-out comes flying at them quickly. This play above was the finish of an end of quarter Spoelstra tweak, where Herro and Lowry operated from each wing with at least 3 drives, kicks, and resets.

The final one included Lowry sinking that strong-side down a bit, ending with that corner three that we just spoke about.

These examples may be the Thunder and Pistons, but every defense will be asked to make these same decisions. And most teams are going to primarily eliminate that middle of the lane guard dissection from Herro and Lowry, ultimately opening up Morris and Tucker as scorers.

Morris at the five clearly downgrades some size in terms of rebounding, but it allows them to continue that physical switching on the perimeter.

When running a double drag above, no mismatches are able to be drawn, since the size and perimeter off-ball quickness from this switchy front-court roster leaves no advantages. Ended in a Jerami Grant contested pull-up, but much of that has to do with the fact that teams don’t view Morris down low as a mismatch.

His size on paper may say differently, but going at Morris on the block is definitely an offensive choice.

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You can probably make the case for about 12 guys on this team to crack the playoff rotation, but the fact of the matter is that it isn’t realistic. But it isn’t crazy to say that all 12 of those guys will probably crack the 9 man rotation at different times.

Dedmon will still be a major part of this team since his back-up big minutes aren’t going anywhere, but when the playoff rotation shrinks even more, and they match up with a team like Chicago or Boston in that second round, I’m pretty comfortable saying that Morris will be the back-up 5.

This week stretch has felt like a lot of tinkering from Spo by placing Morris in different spots, but this is much bigger than an experiment or a Dedmon off day. This is a preview of what will be seen down the line.

And with that different dynamic that Morris provides, specifically offensively, he could make the difference in those 8-10 minutes that Adebayo sits in the post-season.

“We like to hit the pocket pass to be able to have a big to make plays. I fit that spot perfect,” Morris said earlier in the week when I asked him about his mid-range comfort and offensive role. And I would have to agree.

He does fit that spot perfectly, which is exactly why Spo will continue to test the waters with different combos.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Thunder

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The Miami Heat faced the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night, and it went as you would expect.

A bunch of guys chipped in, leading to an easy win in the process.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: Duncan Robinson, literally telling opposing teams to step up in that drop coverage.

Duncan Robinson opened up this game against the Oklahoma City Thunder in a way many would want to see, but more importantly, in a way many should expect due to the extra space he sees against drop coverage. Hits three straight triples to start this game out, and they all looked identical. Same hand-off guy, in Bam Adebayo. Same defenders both on the ball and in that drop. Same look on that curl. After making the third, he runs down the floor as the Thunder call timeout, telling the bench that someone needs to step up. A lot can be talked about from these short bursts that many want to see, but he needs that confidence back. It’s one thing to hit threes, but it’s another thing to get back in some type of comfortable NBA rhythm.

#2: The real winner of the PJ Tucker-Markieff Morris minutes is a 22 year old guard that you may know of.

The more we see the PJ Tucker-Markieff Morris front-court, the more there is to like. PJ Tucker can take care of his hammer screens and hand-offs, while Morris runs the post-splits and takes the mid-range jumper when it’s presented within the post. The common thread: both can space at a very high level. And due to that specific spacing, mostly within the two corners, Tyler Herro benefits greatly. We know the usage has been high for Herro, but as seen early in this one, it consists of a lot of crowded drives where four guys collapse down. In this lineup, there’s some reluctant variants where guys think twice before dropping off the shooters. This lineup will be seen frequently, as the new question becomes depending on match-up: Dewayne Dedmon or Markieff Morris?

#3: Max Strus: king of the slip screen.

You already know we must take at least one section in every one of these to talk about the minor “basketball” aspect of things. Tonight’s topic is something I’ve brought up frequently, but it shines more and more every time Max Strus plays. If he’s coming to set a screen, he’s slipping it. Yet, it feels like every team he faces isn’t ready for that specific burst. Ghost screens with guys like Herro right now are pure gold, since teams are more worried about keeping two on the ball than trailing the shooter. In a playoff series, teams could obviously adjust, but with the discussed role of Strus in the post-season of small spark bursts, teams may not have time to figure it out.

#4: Tyler Herro scaring Heat nation for a bit.

As Herro runs another pick and roll midway through the third, this one goes a bit differently. He throws a skip pass to the weak-side corner in mid-air, but lands awkwardly. Didn’t seem to be a consensus if it was a slight ankle twist or a knee buckle, but either way he was down in pain. A lot of pain. Face first into the hardwood as everybody in the building held their breath. Spo made his way out there as Herro rolled over before walking off on his own. He stretched out on the bench for a bit, then headed back to the locker room. Clearly, his night was over. Yet, that wasn’t the case? Everybody got to breathe a little as he made his way back onto the Heat bench, but better yet, he made his way to the scorers table to enter. Why, you may ask? I simply have no idea.

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#5: Time to get some guys an off day.

Some people hate to hear when certain guys are taking games off, but others really do need it. Jimmy Butler getting it right now isn’t the worst thing as Caleb Martin returns, but a front-court mate needs to take it when it’s there as well: PJ Tucker. Now that they’re getting healthier on the front line, Tucker’s going to need to sit a few going down the stretch of the season. He’s been one of the few constants all year, but the problem is that if he gets in his car to drive to the arena, or goes through warm-ups with a questionable tag, he’s going to play. Dewayne Dedmon is another name that fits into this conversation, but Miami did it in their own way with him. With the ability to go small and versatile, Dedmon wasn’t a part of the 9 man tonight. And as I hinted at before, could be a consistent trend at times.

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Pistons

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The Miami Heat played a weird one against the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday night, yet came away with the win in wild fashion.

Tyler Herro and Max Strus keep the team afloat throughout on the offensive end to get Miami over the top.

Some takeaways from this one…

#1: Tyler Herro can score the basketball, but doing it in the first half mud is something else.

The Heat offense in the first 24 minutes was probably the worst half of offensive basketball I’ve seen from them this season. Over-passing, Jimmy Butler’s obvious struggles, and an inability to trigger any base sets. But then, Tyler Herro happened, per usual. We’ve seen Herro scoring out-pours before, but this one was different. Being able to do it in a clunky offense, and in a game that is completely in the mud, is some of the most promising things we’ve seen from him this year. With the Pistons swarming, he made it his only objective to get to the rim, and consequently get to the line. That kept Miami somewhat afloat offensively before the end of second quarter perimeter scoring spree. He’s doing big time stuff, but finishing that muddy first half with 20 points somehow is simply different.

#2: Navigating the good and the bad of Heat combos.

When looking at the way the first half developed in this one, there were some clear offensive combos that aren’t meshing at peak levels. The one I’ve monitored, and mentioned, quite a few times is the Butler-Tucker-Dedmon front-court. Not enough creation, not enough spacing. Yet since Bam and Lowry usually exit together first, we see it frequently. Oladipo and Herro are still trying to find their way of balancing on-ball reps, but that shouldn’t be a worrisome note. But on the positive side of things, during Herro’s second quarter spurt, the front-court in those minutes were Tucker and Morris. Now that’s a lineup that has plenty of spacing for the creators to work, yet may be troublesome on the boards in certain match-ups. But not tonight, and it’s something that was peaking right before Morris went down with injury.

#3: A minor note: a 2-3 zone best case scenario.

When watching Oladipo’s placing in the 2-3 zone since returning, it wasn’t as simple as slotting into the Gabe Vincent role. He was playing that bottom box often, as Herro rotated to the top of the zone. Tonight, on the other hand, Oladipo played at that top spot next to Herro with Caleb Martin out. Simply, that’s the spot you feel much more comfortable with him playing due to his natural quickness and activity. That said, it gets you thinking about a healthy rotation. In a perfect world, Oladipo and Martin headlining that bench 2-3 is best case scenario. Two guys with total speed, defensive skill, and length is the ultimate dictionary description for a dominant half-court zone. Yet it may be kept on the low, as a playoff surprise that we know Spo likes to keep handy…

#4: Jimmy Butler struggles, Jimmy Butler goes out.

When harping on offensive struggles, Jimmy Butler has to be the headliner to say the least. An offense that relies on his on-ball attack, needs him to actually be able to convert on those downhill attempts. His first half concluded with 2 of 9 shooting, which always seems to blend into something like this: 0 of 2 from deep. When he can’t convert inside, it’s a mind game that leads to an unwillingness to get back to that attacking grind, which ends in some three-point chucks. Aside from that, on one of his drives in the second quarter, he tweaked his right ankle which left him hobbling. He stayed on the floor but ultimately was held out in the second half. That was the right call for obvious reasons, but this team’s reliance on his downhill juice is evident. Tyler Herro can only get them so far as a scorer.

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#5: Max Strus doing Max Strus things.

After Bam Adebayo got himself in some foul trouble and Butler went out with injury, the rotation was forced into a major shift in the second half. Vincent started, Morris jumped into Adebayo’s minutes to start the third, and Strus entered in Morris’ spot. Strus had a quiet 4 minute finish to the third, but then the 4th quarter happened. 13 points in 3 minutes just defines both Strus and his role. Slipping screens is his specialty, but Detroit was nonreactive to it every possession, which reflects the pressure Herro puts on a defense. And once Strus gets one to fall, more are coming. He doesn’t see contests, and even doesn’t see weak-side defenders as he tried to punch one down in that stretch which got denied. Either way, he’s a “situational player” as Spo likes to call it, but he plays with a very Heat-like chip on his shoulder every night. That small stint we saw tonight, will be his playoff role. Game in the mud, time for Strus to try and get them out of it.

 

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What Does Kyle Lowry in the “Real Season” Look Like?

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“I’m just getting prepared for the real season,” Kyle Lowry stated after the Heat’s loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday night.

It’s one of those things that you love to hear, but have to see before completely believing. Lowry has been huge all season in terms of team impact, just through the ways of both calming and setting up this Heat offense in a fashion this group hasn’t seen in recent years.

When projecting forward into that “real season,” the ceiling of this group seems to rely on one player much more than the rest. Of course certain match-ups can be discussed, but this team’s success is going to mirror the things that lie under Bam Adebayo’s offensive umbrella come playoff time.

But it’s up to those around him to elevate that element even further, which is exactly what would enter this group into that true championship tier.

And that elevation element has a lot to do with veteran point guard Kyle Lowry.

Many will focus on the shot attempts solely, because it’s the easiest thing to point to, but it’s more about where and when he’s taking specific shots. Looking in recent years, there’s never been a major jump in shot attempts from him when comparing the regular season to the playoffs.

For example here, when watching his 4 for 12 night against Minnesota on Saturday, this shot stood out from the rest. Part of it is that it’s there for him way too often not to take advantage of, and secondly, this is the shot that can change Miami’s half-court offensive attack in the post-season, specifically in that starting unit.

A simple Lowry-Bam PnR in the middle of the floor takes place against another form of drop coverage that we see so often. Duncan Robinson plants on that strong-side wing, which spectator mode from him is enough impact on the possession already. The reasoning is that spacing immediately eliminates any type of help at the nail on Lowry’s attack.

The defender dips off that corner shooter instead, in Gabe Vincent, which would usually be Jimmy Butler in a healthy lineup. Yet, the spacing would look quite similar.

All of that said, the way the defense is positioned basically enhances Lowry into that bounce back mid-range jumper, which is a shot he is surely comfortable in taking. Here, he buries it, but it’s much more about taking it whenever it’s sitting there in the “real season,” since that causes defenses to adjust quickly.

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But realistically, that specific shot will only be sitting there in certain scenarios, while the primary element of his shot profile is sitting right in front of our eyes each and every night.

Scoring off the attack.

When Lowry was brought to Miami, running pick and rolls next to Bam Adebayo was the immediate clip that played in every Heat fans head. Forcing 2-on-1’s and lobbing up the perfect lob pass to Adebayo with his insanely elite passing skill.

And well, that projected illustration has been seen quite frequently this season.

But is it crazy to say we’ve seen it too* frequently?

Lowry is averaging 7.8 drives per game so far this season. Yet among players averaging at least 7 drives per game, which includes 89 players, Lowry is dead last in shot attempts within those possessions at 2.2 field goal attempts.

When we talk about Lowry magically transitioning into the “real season,” that’s the wild shift that is coming. A 1 of 4 finish in a win against Cleveland may stand out, but the issue was that all 4 shots came from beyond the arc.

For this team to truly take that next offensive level once Lowry starts to increase his scoring aggression, the jump in paint touches and scoring at the rim is the key.

Back into the film, the way that this begins to change possessions is that it puts so much pressure on defenses to have multiple attackers/play-makers on the floor, which will lead to an uptick in outside shooting that ranks dead last in spot-up frequency at this point in time.

Evaluating the play above, this was a drawn up play from Erik Spoelstra after some free throws were taken by the Timberwolves on the other side. Max Strus and Duncan Robinson in the game together for this possession so they can camp out in each corner, simply daring the defense to dip off of them in the slightest.

Three-man game at the top between Lowry, Bam, and Herro.

Herro inserts to Lowry, flies off the Bam screen as Lowry hits him in stride, and the first downhill contact is seen.

Naz Reid, who is supposed to be guarding Adebayo on the roll, steps up onto Herro for the help. Anthony Edwards has to help down, Herro zips it back across court to Lowry, leading right back into a misdirection from Lowry into the lane as the defense is in a recovery frenzy.

Ends in a Lowry miss, but this is what attackers do in the half-court. More movement, better shots.

I asked Lowry about the need for rim pressure and trying to make up for it without Butler, which he responded, “We can’t duplicate what Jimmy does. We gotta go out there and do things that we can do to try and win the game…It’s just different. We can’t make up for what that guy brings.”

That stuff is all true, but Lowry’s attacking is going to be mostly predicated on nights that Butler is* on the floor and suiting up.

Lowry has been an elite offensive player for this Heat team without even scoring the basketball in crazy fashion, but change is coming. And as noted, those driving numbers potentially changing could shift the entire offense.

Not at the expense of anybody else. But just in bail out times where this team goes cold. His job is to get them out of the mud, and that specific part of his skill-set will do that.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Timberwolves

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The Miami Heat fall late to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday night, even considering Tyler Herro had a 30 point night.

Minnesota got hot from the outside, and they couldn’t counter.

Well, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: Max Strus making his rotation case yet again.

Max Strus walked away as the player of the half over the first 24 minutes just from a spark perspective. He’s clearly not afraid to shoot it, but he also went 4 for 7 from deep in that span. Part of that had a lot to do with Miami’s attackers, which is a fantastic story-line considering they were without Jimmy Butler. Guys were getting into the teeth of the defense, allowing Strus to thrive as that extra pass in the corner or wing. Aside from that, his shot creation goes under the radar a bit in terms of screen navigation. One play to start off his offensive night began with him refusing a screen with a spin, turning into a wing pull-up. His catch and shoot is his base, but the on-ball creation is what makes his rotation case interesting. But simply, once the playoffs get here, a potential offensive spark when needed will be his primary role.

#2: Bam Adebayo making a small offensive critique.

Looking at Bam Adebayo’s offensive punch as of late, we’ve seen it in a different light. We’ve seen the big time performances when the jumper begins to fall, but this interior stuff is new. I talked about his presence down there against the lengthier Cleveland, but he wasted no time going right at the bigger Karl Anthony Towns. And it’s one thing to score frequently inside, and another thing to do it with complete authority and bully ball. That’s the key. Everybody highlights the need for more post-ups in his game, but when he’s going strong and using his body before going up is essential. The foul calls will come, but not shying away from that size is important. And man is he using that right shoulder before going up in the painted area.

#3: Heat edging away on the boards.

When monitoring the rebounding situation from Miami in this one, the Heat kept chipping away against a Timberwolves team that didn’t have Vanderbuilt who is one of their better rebounders. This isn’t to say that the simple Markieff Morris insertion means they need to go big to win that battle, but part if it was on Bam Adebayo, and the rest was just pure team crashing. We’ve seen Miami’s defensive plan against teams like Minnesota, where PJ Tucker and Bam Adebayo switch every pick and roll on a talented combo, like Towns and Edwards. The issue is that sometimes means Tucker is battling on the boards against that much bigger center. Yet tonight, I felt like there are some positives to getting by that, mostly through Bam sagging off the shooter immediately after that ball goes up, leading to the crash.

#4: Tyler Herro silently sliding under the scoring radar, but not from the Timberwolves’ perspective.

When going down the Heat roster tonight, many guys popped in the scoring column from the eye test. Strus was shooting really well, Adebayo was attacking. But somehow Herro’s 21 first half points outdid them all, and from my perspective, it didn’t feel like he was the leading scorer by that margin at that point. The reasoning: it’s the typical at this point. He was facing a Minnesota team that doesn’t allow many mid-range jumpers, meaning he would have to alter his shot profile slightly. Cutting that mid-range out is a quick indication to Herro that he’s going to get his three-ball up, which led to a plethora of pull-up jumpers. We saw that against Milwaukee about a week ago, which is a good sign for the playoffs. When it becomes half-court basketball and they limit him, stretch out into high pick and rolls then go to work. And if they throw extra bodies at him like Minnesota did, it all comes down to the supporting cast hitting shots.

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#5: Markieff Morris return: sticking to an offensive base.

Markieff Morris returned essentially out of nowhere hours before tonight’s game, as some other key wings took the night off. I think we know what he is at this stage, so no major surprises, but I’m pretty sure the reliance on him as a play-maker would need to decline, even though I’ve highlighted his previous comfort in mid-post sets. Either way, that “mid-post” phrase is the key to anything involving Morris. His three-ball isn’t a consistently trusted piece of his offensive package, and the rolling reps are a bit uneven, other than transition. But a simple slip at the top of they key into the mid-range is his home, and Kyle Lowry will hit him in his “home.” He still provides obvious components defensively and on the boards, but his role moving forward is still in question. Another big man insurance piece to potentially insert in, since it still feels Caleb Martin has his rotation spot locked up.

 

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Starstruck With Favorites

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The NBA and its partners laid a dud when they set up the national TV schedule for the 2021/2022 regular season. Market size and star power is a factor in the decision making but it seems as if the NBA has its favorites to promote.

As expected and for good reason, there are regulars who the league must show nationally to efficiently promote the product.  It’s in the best interest of the NBA to present Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and others consistently.  But when the league forgets some of its other quality teams with rapidly developing stars, they do the fans a disservice.

Fans are not dumb.  In some cases they know more than people like me who write what you are reading.  Supporters understand well enough because they have passion for what consumes their time. Surely, it’s not hard to figure out that the NBA is more than a handful of regulars on ABC, ESPN, TNT and NBA TV.  Call me crazy, but I find the idea of exposing the casual fan in moderation to different up and comers, a fine method for hooking the part-time observer for life.

The Denver Nuggets, the team with the reigning MVP of the league (Nikola Jokic), has been on prime time TV 19 times this season and will have four more of those national TV gigs.  Ten other teams will be on national TV more than them.

According to Sports Media Watch, Denver is the 16th largest TV market in the United States. However, they are on track to have the lowest NBA local rating in 15 years because of a dispute with Comcast, per Axios.  Still, there is something terribly wrong with the picture of possibly the best player in the world and his group getting second billing on the prime time pecking order.

At the top spot in TV markets are the New York teams.  One of those two are the Knicks, an outfit so deprived of prosperity and direction who gets close to top billing on TV (32 games) this season.

One might ask, why did the NBA gift the Knicks the fifth most national TV games?  Well, because  the league bet on an outlier.  To bolster its case, in 2021 while the NBA saw its local TV ratings drop for most teams, the Knicks had their best numbers in the previous three years as they made their first playoffs in eight seasons, according to Sports Business Journal.

This season has been a trip to Dante’s Inferno for the Knickerbockers and everyone who afflicts their eyes watching them.  Their record clearly shows they didn’t deserve the opportunity to embarrass themselves routinely on the biggest stage.  In their last 10 games on national TV, the Knicks only have one win, while dropping every other match by an average of 11 points.

 One might wonder, why doesn’t the NBA just cut some of their national TV dates?  There is only some flexibility for those measures.  If travel and crews are already paid for, it isn’t an option.

Another oversight in TV scheduling was not having the Memphis Grizzlies on more often.  Their group is spearheaded by perhaps the most exciting player to watch in the NBA (Ja Morant) and they are the second seed in the west.  So far, Memphis has gotten centerstage eight times with seven more left on the books.

Morant is a skywalker who defies gravity on a regular basis when assaulting the rim. When the NBA awards come out and fans and media see his name on First Team All-NBA, they’ll likely wonder how 15 teams got more love than Morant’s on national TV.

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Add the Heat to the list of underpromoted squads. Miami is one of the deepest bands in the NBA.  Their collection of veterans and developing diamonds rank second on ESPN’s Kirk Goldsberry’s Efficiency Landscape for the last 15 games played, as of March 11 (not counting Miami’s win on Friday over the Cavaliers).  With or without their All-Stars (Adebayo, Butler, Lowry), Miami puts together one of the finest products in the league under the direction of one the top 15 coaches of all-time (Erik Spoelstra).  

Maybe next year the league will show some more respect for the eastern conference’s top seeded team through 4/5s of the season.  I’d only count on it if Miami goes on a postseason run similar to what it accomplished in the bubble two seasons ago.

Come playoff time, it will be obvious who merited the national spotlight.

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