Will the Dolphins win a game? Numbers (sort of) say no
It’s time to call upon the ghost of Greg Camarillo.
Actually, the former Dolphins receiver is very much alive, living in California with his family (and you can follow him @CatchCamarillo).
I’ve been killin’ it the last 24 hrs!
1. Locked keys in car. Got 1 of 3 kids to school.
2. Discovered gas leak in my yard.
3. Dropped Apple Watch. Shattered screen.
Someone bless me with some hilarious memes to get my Friday back on track!
— Greg Camarillo (@catchcamarillo) May 17, 2019
But some of the recent dour forecasts of the upcoming Dolphins season do bring the Stanford grad to mind. It was the crafty Camarillo, after all, who scored the touchdown in overtime of a game against the Baltimore Ravens in 2007 to keep Cam Cameron and company from a winless season.
Week 15 great moments : Dec 16, 2007 WR Greg Camarillo wins the game in OT taking the Cleo Lemon pass 64 yards to paydirt for Dolphins first & only 2007 win 22-16 pic.twitter.com/X5aybmcNm4
— Dolphins History (@DolphinsHistory) December 15, 2017
So could something like this happen again, with the Dolphins rebuilding or regrouping or resetting or tanking or whatever?
A tweet Friday afternoon set of a bit of a firestorm.
Early score projections for all 256 NFL games during the 2019 regular season: pic.twitter.com/wsaEnRYelE
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) May 17, 2019
If you can read that, congrats on your eyesight.
What it says is that the Dolphins aren’t projected to win a game. Not one. Out of 16. Not against anyone.
Now, of course, this requires some context.
Remember, these are projections, not predictions. Think of them more like sportsbook lines. AKA I'm not predicting ties. Games projected as such just figure to be tight.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) May 17, 2019
Some were happy about this.
After all, they have their eyes on a greater prize.
Dolphins be like… pic.twitter.com/Vb5qxFJbPP
— 🇺🇸мαкє кяαмєяι¢α gяєαт🇺🇸 (@Seminole51) May 18, 2019
We are fortunate to have a bit of a numbers savant in our network — Chris Kouffman (@CKParrot) of Three Yards Per Carry.
Here’s how he sees it:
This has Miami as the only team being an underdog in all 16 games, probabilistic win total of 3.7 wins, 32nd in points scored (18.1 ppg), and 30th in points allowed (26.3 ppg). The next worst teams have probabilistic win totals of 5.0 or greater. @5ReasonsSports @3YardsPerCarry https://t.co/PLpPu9lRT0
— Chris Kouffman (@ckparrot) May 18, 2019
So while the Dolphins may be favored to lose every game individually, at this early stage before rosters are padded and trimmed over the summer, Clay’s charts aren’t actually saying that is likely to happen.
Rather, the Dolphin should finish up with about 4 wins, which may be bad enough to get them one of the top quarterbacks — and probably would ensure that such an addition would be anointed ahead of Josh Rosen immediately.
But again, much can change.
Remember what happened after the Camarillo catch season?
With a roster that was turned over some, but not completely – and with a more competent coaching staff like Miami appears to have now — the Dolphins won 11 games.
And there’s some history with Clay, whom we hope to have on our podcast.
See how our Josh Houtz reacted to Clay’s views last season (Clay turned out to be sort of right).
mike clay just spent his entire tuesday, playing the victim and criticizing fans for “attacking him”. the dude spent the entire offseason calling the dolphins a bottom-3 team. admit you’re wrong and do better next time. ESPN still pays your big salary, even when you say dumb shit https://t.co/QWPHujkRVq
— josh houtz (@houtz) September 19, 2018
Sorry Houtz. We still love ya.
Photo by our Tony Capobianco.