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Marlins Take First Home Series from Phillies

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The Miami Marlins opened their 2022 home schedule with yet another series win over the Philadelphia Phillies. Miami took the home opener with 31,184 fans in attendance last Thursday. That crowd proved to be the largest to attend a game at loanDepot park since Opening Day in 2018, when 32,151 fans watched the Marlins play the Cubs.

The Marlins saw an average of 17,015 fans attend the series against the Phillies, which is nearly 10,000 more than their average attendance last season and 7,000 more than their attendance in 2019, the last season without attendance restrictions. Those encouraging numbers came despite the team’s slow offensive start on the road.

Marlins Offense Finds Its Spark in Series vs Phillies

The new-look Marlins offense scored five on Opening Day in what was a one-run loss to the San Francisco Giants. But Miami wouldn’t get over that figure again until the team’s first home stand over the weekend. The Marlins ultimately took the four-game series against the Phillies, 3-1.

The Marlins offense came to life against their NL East division rivals, outscoring the Phillies 25-17 for the series. Miami put up four runs in a rally during the home opener, sparked by a Garrett Cooper home run. The Marlins then followed that with an impressive 7-1 victory on Friday night, and capped the series with an 11-3 win over the Phillies on Easter Sunday.

Miami’s offense scored 6.3 runs per game for the series versus the Phillies, a figure that ties them for the second-best runs-per-game average at home early in the season. Conversely, the Marlins scored just 2.8 runs-per-game during their first road trip (25th in MLB). For the season, Miami now averages 4.3 runs-per-game (14th in MLB).

The Marlins lineup pounced on Philly’s pitching staff, recording 16 extra-base hits in the series versus the Phillies. Miami managed just nine extra-base hits during their five-game road trip to start the season.

After a 2-for-29 start with runners-in-scoring-position (.069 batting average), the Marlins broke out in the series against the Phillies, going 14-for-42 (.333) in that situation.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jesus Sanchez proved the biggest lifts for Miami’s offense. The two combined to record 10 hits (in 24 at-bats), with four triples, two doubles, and 10 RBI between them.

It was also nice to see Miami’s main free agent additions, Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler, find some success at home. The two combined for four extra-base hits, including two no-doubt home runs, in the series. Neither registered an extra-base hit on the road trip.

Starting Pitching Dominates

The strength of this Marlins team remains the starting rotation. That strength was on full display for the Marlins in this series against the Phillies. Three of Miami’s four starters registered a win in their game, with only Trevor Rodgers taking a loss.

Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Elieser Hernandez combined to toss 17.2 innings in the series, allowing just three earned runs in the process (1.53 ERA). Lopez held Philadelphia scoreless over 5.1 innings on Friday. Hernandez was particularly impressive on Sunday, out-dueling Phillies ace Zach Wheeler to help the Marlins win the series. Hernandez went six innings, striking out five, allowing just one earned run.

Rodgers, meanwhile, struggled in his start against Philadelphia. The 24-year-old lefty couldn’t make it out of the second inning on Saturday night, surrendering seven runs in the process. Rodgers labored through the first, needing 40 pitches to complete the frame. He wasn’t helped by a botched run-down play where Jon Berti collided with Cooper, allowing Philadelphia to score and extend the inning.

Rodgers struggled with his command, and Marlins pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. implied after the game Rodgers may have been tipping his pitches. His changeup has been particularly ineffective this season. Following a season in which his changeup sported a 33.7 percent whiff rate, Rodgers has not induced a swing-and-miss with his changeup so far in 2022.

Rodgers’ shortest outings prior to this 1.2 inning stint came in 2020, when as a rookie Rodgers went 3.0 innings in three different starts. His shortest outing in 2021 was a 3.2 inning turn against the New York Mets at home in late July.

Bullpen Also Impressive

Miami’s bullpen continued its solid string of work during this Marlins series victory over the Phillies. Marlins relievers accounted for 16.2 innings and allowing just five earned runs in those frames (2.78 ERA). Miami’s bullpen notched 16 strikeouts of Phillies hitters, issuing four walks and hitting two batters.

Anthony Bender recorded his second save of the season, nailing down the win during the home opener. Anthony Bass, Steven Overt, and Cole Sulser all registered holds during the series.

Marlins Must Maintain Offensive Attack

The Marlins first home stand of the season closes this week following a three-game series with the St Louis Cardinals. The Marlins scored 25 runs in the series with the Phillies, but Miami struggled to score against the Cardinals last season.

St Louis swept the season series from the Marlins, 6-0, including two shut outs. The Cardinals pitching staff held the Fish to six total runs in those games.

The Marlins offensive metrics are up following the series versus the Phillies. Miami’s up to 11th in OPS (.717.), 13th in batting average (.239), and 19th in Runs Scored (39). The Marlins jumped from 30th to 20th hitting with runners-in-scoring-position with their solid series against the Phillies. They’re hitting .225 for the season in that metric.

Here’s More on the Marlins Series Win Over the Phillies

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5 Keys to the Marlins, Phillies Series

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The Miami Marlins need to shrug off last night’s historic drubbing at the hands of the Atlanta Braves. And they need to do that quickly, because the Marlins return to Miami to face the waiting Philadelphia Phillies for seven games in five days.

The Marlins’ playoff push stands a stout test in the second-place Phillies. At 19-19, Miami enters with an opportunity to not only solidify its playoff position, but also overtake Philadelphia in the standings.

The Marlins are 5-5 over their last ten games. Philadelphia’s play has improved of late, as they’ve rattled off 12 wins in their last 16 games to vault up the standings, passing the Marlins in the process.

Marlins, Phillies Start Seven-Game Series

The Marlins and Phillies are playing a seven-game series thanks to the COVID-19 outbreak that affected the club back in July. MLB scrambled to rearrange the schedule and settled on this 7-game series (a first in Marlins history) which includes a pair of doubleheaders.

The Phillies will start veteran RHP Jake Arrieta (3-4, 5.67 ERA) on Thursday. Arrieta marks the ninth former Cy Young Award winner to start against the Marlins this season. Miami is 3-5 in those starts, including recent wins against Jacob deGrom and Blake Snell.

But Arrieta has had success in Marlins Park before, going 6-1 in seven career starts with a 3.40 ERA. In his career against the Marlins, Arrieta holds a 8-1 record with a 3.55 ERA in 11 starts.

This season, the Marlins are 2-1 against the Phillies. On Opening Day, RHP Sandy Alcantara (2-1, 3.78 ERA) beat the Phillies 5-2. He allowed three hits, two walks and two runs while striking out seven over 6.2 innings. Alcantara landed on the IL shortly thereafter, but he regained his rhythm in his last start. Against Tampa Bay, Alcantara went six innings and allowing just three hits and one run while striking out eight.

Keys to the Marlins, Phillies Series

The Starters

The Marlins enter this crucial seven games in five days stretch with one of their top pitchers on the mound. In five career starts against the Phillies, Alcantara has been really good, posting a 4-1 record with a 2.51 ERA.

As a staff, Miami’s starters have a 4.11 ERA this season, 11th-best in MLB. They were top-10 in ERA prior to Pablo Lopez‘s struggles last night. Former Philly farmhand Sixto Sánchez has allowed his opponent to score in just three of his 25.0 innings this season. He’s struck out 25 batters combined over his first four starts.

In Marlins franchise history, only Dontrelle Willis (26) has fanned more batters through his first four career starts. That said, Trevor Rogers has 21 strikeouts through his first three starts, so we’ll see.

Phillies starters have posted a 4.01 ERA overall. But if take out Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the other starters (Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin, Spencer Howard and Vince Velasquez) have a combined 5.34 ERA.

The Bullpen

Where the Marlins have a clear advantage is the bullpen. Prior to last night’s game, Miami had a 4.29 bullpen ERA, which was 13th-best in baseball. After Jordan Yamamoto’s implosion, though, the ERA sits at 5.27 (26th). All told, Marlins relievers coughed up 22 runs (20 earned) in last night’s debacle.

Even so, it’s the Phillies who sport MLB’s worst bullpen this season with a 7.24 ERA. Despite making a number of trades for bullpen arms at the deadline, Philadelphia still struggles in that department.

If the Marlins can post runs against Philly starters, they’ll be in great shape. And comebacks are certainly possible against Philadelphia relievers.

Finding Some Offense at Marlins Park

Miami holds a 17-10 record on the road this season, but they’ve struggled to win at home (2-9). The Phillies are 6-8 on the road this year. For the Marlins, they’ll need to find a way to put up five runs. The team is 11-2 this season when scoring at least five runs.

Miami hits just .234 at home, with a .288 on-base percentage and a .622 OPS. Not great. Jesus Aguilar has reached base safely in 9-of-10 career games at Marlins Park, going 10-for-40 (.250) with five walks, and there are several Marlins players who have performed historically well against Philadelphia.

The Phillies have hit .249 on the road, with a .288 on-base percentage and a .659 OPS. While Rhys Hoskins has been the offensive engine of late, Bryce Harper has struggled. In his last 15 games, Harper is batting .143 and slugging .163 with no homers and a .502 OPS.

Clutch Two-Out Rallies

The Marlins are batting .268 (114-for-426) this season with two outs, the fourth-highest mark in the Majors and second in the NL behind the Padres (.269).

Miami’s .366 on-base percentage with two outs is tops in the Majors in 2020. The Marlins have scored 48.5 percent of their runs this season with two outs (82-of-169), the highest such percentage in the Majors.

Rivalry Bringing Out the Best

The Marlins are 2-1 against the Phillies this year after they went 10-9 against them in 2019. All told, Miami is 12-12 against NL East opponents in 2020, while the Phillies are 17-9 against the division. Winning this series would hurt a division rival and solidify Miami’s playoff position.

And no one has enjoyed playing the Phillies more than Miguel Rojas. He sports a nine-game hit-streak against the Phillies, going 18-for-37 (.486), including a 3-for-4 effort with a home run and four RBIs in his last game against Philly on July 24.

Jorge Alfaro also plays well against the Phillies. He owns .432 (19-for-44) batting average in 13 career games versus Philadelphia, with two doubles, three homers and five RBI. Brian Anderson, meanwhile, has posted a .349 batting average (22-for-63) and a 1.128 OPS (4 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 13 RBI) over his last 17 games versus the Phillies.

One player who needs to get going is Starling Marte, who’s managed just a .200 batting average (7-for-35) with two home runs and four RBI in the eight games since the trade deadline.

Jorge Alfaro’s production determines winner of JT Realmuto trade

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Philadelphia Phillies catcher JT Realmuto made his return to Miami on Friday for a three-game series with the Marlins. Like former members of the fightin’ fish last year, he came, said how much he loves the Marlins organization (despite asking for a trade in back-to-back offseasons) and how happy he is now.

What makes this year different is now he got to voice his approval of the new changes to Marlins Park. Like a former fling who leaves only to return and see how everything has changed since.

“It’s great — a lot better than the sculpture,” Realmuto said. “I wasn’t a huge fan of it.”

The Marlins traded Realmuto to Philadelphia for catcher Jorge Alfaro, pitching prospects Sixto Sanchez and Will Stewart, and $250,000 in international bonus money. Even though MLB Pipeline named Sanchez Miami’s top prospect and Stewart flirted with a no-hitter in his most recent start at Single-A Jupiter, Alfaro’s production is what will determine whether or not the Realmuto trade is a winner. 

Both catchers were on display in the Phillies 9-1 victory. Realmuto went 2-for-5 with an RBI and a couple runs scored. Alfaro went 2-for-4 with a run scored as well, thanks to sac fly by right fielder Austin Dean.

Alfaro has been the lone bright spot in the Marlins’ lackluster lineup. The 25-year-old Colombian catcher leads the team with a .286 batting average, a .342 on-base percentage and .543 slugging percentage.

“If he will stay with the approach and the plan, he’s going to be dangerous,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said of Alfaro. “He will swing at way more strikes, and hit a lot more pitches. He just has to stick with it daily, and stay with his work. I think he understands what we’re trying to get to. I honestly think, if he sticks with it — and he’s not a kid who is afraid of anything at all. You can see it. He’s not afraid of the ball in any way, shape or form. He’s going to be dangerous, if he will stay with the plan and the approach on a daily basis.”

Realmuto made the All-Star Game last year by hitting .310 in the first half of the season and finishing with 21 home runs. Mattingly has said repeatedly since the trade that Alfaro’s power is off the charts. After hitting 10 home runs in 108 games as a rookie last year, clearing the 20 homer benchmark this season seems realistic.

That alone will make the trade a winner for the Marlins.

Tony Capobianco is the lead photographer for FiveReasonsSports.com