As usual, there’s little love for the Miami Heat

Shortly after the release of next year’s NBA calendar, the wise guys at Caesars Sportsbook revealed their win totals for the 2021/2022 regular season, enticing degenerate gamblers and casual risk-takers alike to plunge into the muddied waters of sports betting.    

Upon review of Caesars’ predictions, it seems that these renowned fortune tellers have underestimated the Miami Heat.  The sportsbook slots the Heat winning 47.5 games out of 82, which gives Miami a winning percentage of .580.  Last year’s Heatles finished the regular season with 40 wins out of 72 (Covid, shortened season) and in sixth place in the east, with a .560 winning percentage.

Statistically, that is marginal improvement, although there are three teams ahead of the Heat in the east, according to the over/under.  The Milwaukee Bucks – the champs, and they bludgeoned Miami to get there, is appropriate.  The Brooklyn Nets – despite their star-studded triumvirate suiting up for 13 games, regular season and Playoffs included, is fair because of the talent advantage they have over most teams.  Yet too much respect is given to the Philadelphia 76ers as a top three squad in the east.  

It has not eluded my memory that Philadelphia was first in the conference during 2020/2021.  Every year they are touted as contenders when the reality is they are spoilers.  However, what should hold the most weight in the minds of invested spectators and depraved bettors is the health of Embiid.  When in peak-form, there are few in Embiid’s stratosphere on the court, yet those moments do not last an entire season.  Keep in mind that Philly’s center elected to rehab his torn right meniscus instead of getting surgery this offseason, per ESPN. 

Time will tell if Embiid made the right decision based on his ability to stay on the hardwood, and fingers crossed that he did.  Nonetheless, the Heat’s improvements did not generate enough regard, and they shouldn’t be four wins behind the habitual underachievers.    

The Heat’s semi-makeover this offseason brought back some familiar faces and filled leaking holes the team had at the point and the power forward position.  One of the first orders of business was retaining deadeye Duncan Robinson, keeping Dewayne Dedmon, the team’s best offensive rebounder, re-signing Victor Oladipo while he recovers from his quadricep injury and committing to Max Strus, a promising understudy.  

Then there are the new faces.  Kyle Lowry, even at 35 years old, is an All-Star caliber orchestrator and a champion. PJ Tucker is a versatile defender at 36 and one of the NBA’s premier threats from the corners.  No player has hit more corner triples than Tucker in the last five years, as Kirk Goldsberry of ESPN pointed out in March about the champion.  Next is Markieff Morris, another winner and multiskilled scorer for the reserves, most likely.  

Two of those three additions for the Heat will find themselves in the starting lineup.  Most probably Lowry and Tucker, and they would immediately improve Miami’s potency on the defensive end.  It’s difficult for opposing ball-handlers to lose Lowry without a screen on the perimeter, which eliminates the threat of a breakdown and slasher going downhill. Also, Lowry is very effective at playing safety close to the baseline, cutting off rim-runners by stepping in front of them for a charge.  

Unless Tucker is guarding with the league’s unicorns, it’s a challenge for anyone to muscle their way past him at the elbow or in the low post.  His swift hands and lateral quickness allow the possibility to use #17 in multiple defensive coverages.  

The Heat’s latest acquisitions are one of the keys to getting back to what they were during their time in the bubble.  Lowry, Tucker and Morris in the lineup should alleviate much of the pressure burdened on Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler’s shoulders during this past season.  It’s possible that last year, with the health of Miami’s favorite Dragon betraying him (Goran Dragic), that Adebayo and Butler had too much on their plate as the team’s most dependable scorers, distributors and defenders.

I can’t speak for others, but I’m taking the over on the Heat and expect them to finish as a 50+ win team.

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