Assessing nine Miami Dolphins draft moves in Hindsight

Making matters worse for front offices is everyone’s ability to look back years later and provide 20/20 hindsight of what should’ve been done in the projection period. Fans can look back and dream of possibilities of what could have been if their team had only selected Player B instead of Player A.

The Miami Dolphins are in the same boat as the other 31 teams in feeling pain with this exercise. For the purpose of this column, I looked back at the Dolphins’ drafts since the turn of the millennium. I ranked the nine most painful first round draft picks for the Dolphins in hindsight, considering who else was on the board at that time. In order to be reasonable, I only looked at first round-for-first round swaps, as saying, “the Dolphins should’ve taken Tom Brady in the first round in 2000 instead of allowing him to fall to the sixth” is asking a herculean amount from a front office.

Now, this is without question the most unfair one on the list. Each player has only played one season, and Jackson has only been legally able to drink alcohol for 10 months. Jackson had a bit of a rocky first year, but given his age, his recovery from a bone marrow transplant, and the difficulty of the position, there is little reason to believe he cannot develop into an offensive tackle worthy of the 18th pick.

What makes this one tough is Jefferson was at a position of need, and would have immediately made Tua Tagovailoa’s transition to the NFL smoother. He also was one of only two rookies to make the Pro Bowl, and set the NFL record for receiving yards by a rookie with 1,400.

Adding salt to the wound is the hypothetical that if Miami did take Jefferson in 2020 and chose to address OT early in 2021 (the inverse of how it played out positionally), they would have Jefferson and Penei Sewell instead of Jackson and Jaylen Waddle. History will tell us which pairing has the better NFL careers, but for now, it’s hard not to wish Jefferson was in the Miami receiving corps.

The late Eddie Jones did not have to travel far to make his first round selection, going down the road to Coral Gables to grab Hurricanes tackle Vernon Carey. The lifelong Miami native who is now a high school coach in the area served well in his eight years with the Dolphins, playing both tackle spots as well as right guard. While eight years is not as long as Miami hoped when they selected Carey, what lands him on this list is the player taken two selections later.

Jones had the right school and right idea with a tackle, but needed to look to the other side of the ball for the Hurricanes. Wilfork ended up with the cross-division rival New England Patriots and was a first-team All-Pro, three-time second-team All-Pro, five-time Pro Bowler, two-time Super Bowl champion, and figures to find himself enshrined in Canton one day.

The middle of the Dolphins’ defensive line in 2004 featured Tim Bowens and Larry Chester, both players who played their last seasons of football that fall. Adding Wilfork to a front seven that featured Jason Taylor, Adele Ogunleye, Zach Thomas, and Junior Seau would have been fearsome. The fact that he had to go to Foxboro from right down the road makes it all the more sour.

Sticking with the Hurricane theme, this one is particularly painful. Fletcher lasted just three seasons in Miami before being dealt to the San Diego Chargers. He played a total of nine seasons in the NFL with five teams, and never made a Pro Bowl or had more than three interceptions in a season.

Wayne, on the other hand, has been nominated for the Pro Football Hall of Fame after 14 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts that saw him make six Pro Bowls. He had 82 regular season receiving touchdowns in Indy, which is exactly as many as Dolphins all-time leader in receiving touchdowns Mark Clayton had in his career.

What makes this one most puzzling is team need at the time. At receiver, Miami was relying on Oronde Gadsden and Leslie Shepherd. Meanwhile, at cornerback, the Dolphins had Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison, both in their mid-20s. The need was definitely at receiver, and that proved itself over time. It should be pointed out that Purdue quarterback Drew Brees went two picks after Wayne at pick 32.

Long was an exceptional player in Miami. He was with the Dolphins for five seasons, and made four Pro Bowls. Unfortunately, he experienced back and biceps injuries before turning down an extension and electing to move on to St. Louis. His injury problems only worsened as he twice tore his ACL and also tore his achilles, forcing him into an early retirement. If injuries had not gotten in Long’s way and the Dolphins were able to keep him in free agency, the sky would have been the limit for the former Michigan Wolverine.

The pain point here of course is Ryan. Miami has not been able to find a long-term solution at quarterback since the retirement of Dan Marino. Ryan, by all indications, could have been that in South Florida. The 2016 MVP is entering his 14th season and will play for his fourth head coach, remaining the lone constant in Atlanta. He is 113-92 as a starter, thrown for 7,443 yards and 347 touchdowns, made five Pro Bowls and six trips to the playoffs.

Offensive tackle is arguably the second-most important position on a football field. The reason it is so high, though, is because it is used to protect what is the most important position in sports: quarterback. Maybe Ryan would not have fit in with offensive philosophies from some of Miami’s head coaches in this time, but his longevity in Atlanta makes you wonder if the Dolphins could have had their man under center for a decade-plus.

Tannehill has proven to be a pretty good quarterback. That’s especially true when you consider he made a Pro Bowl in 2019, and the quarterbacks selected above him (Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III) are not currently on NFL rosters due to Luck’s early retirement and Griffin’s injury history. Unfortunately for Miami, Tannehill was never that for the Dolphins. It took trading him and a sixth-rounder to Tennessee for a fourth-rounder for the ex-Aggie to reach his potential.

It’s rarely a bad idea to take a quarterback in the draft when you are in dire need of one. It’s when you see 10 future Pro Bowls go off the board in the first round after Tannehill that stings. Kuechly was a five-time first-team All-Pro and Defensive Player of the Year and went the very next pick. Gilmore has also been a Defensive Player of the Year, made two first-team All-Pro teams, and is terrorizing receivers for the Patriots. After those two, you also see Fletcher Cox (14th), Melvin Ingram (18th), Chandler Jones (21st), and Dont’a Hightower (25th) among others.

This is a historically bad draft. Seriously, go look at it. To stick with the theme of the draft, Jordan was a historically bad selection especially when you consider Miami traded a second rounder to move up to take him. Jordan was only with Miami for four seasons, totaling just 3.0 combined sacks in his first two years before missing the next two after off-the-field issues. He has not been much better in the four seasons since, combining for 10.5 sacks for the Seahawks, Raiders, and 49ers.

Philadelphia Eagles left tackle Lane Johnson was picked fourth, right after Jordan, and made three Pro Bowls. It’s Hopkins, however, that really would have been the right selection in hindsight. He would have been on the board still at 12, and was just the second receiver taken, so despite grabbing his 15 spots ahead of where he actually went, it would not have been an overdraft.

Brian Hartline and Davone Bess were the leading receivers for the Dolphins the year prior with the former having a 1,000-yard season only to be followed up by another 1,000-yard campaign in 2013. Bess was replaced after 2012 with Steelers wideout Mike Wallace, who last just two seasons in Miami, leaving the same time as Hartline.

Hopkins has been nothing short of a monster in his NFL career. He’s made three first-team All-Pro teams, and two second-team All-Pro nods. Consistently one of the most dangerous receivers in football, Hopkins would have been an absolute asset in South Florida.

Now we are getting to the “I want to puke” part of the list. Ginn was coming off a foot injury from his time in Columbus, and many Dolphins fans were furious the furious that general manager Randy Mueller did not take Brady Quinn, who wound up going 13 picks later to Cleveland. It turns out the fan sentiment was right, but the reasoning was off.

Ginn spent three years with the Dolphins, catching five touchdown passes, running for two, and returning three more. Since then, he has been a bit of a journeyman, changing teams six times and is currently a free agent. Though he never missed any games in Miami with injury, he never lived up to his billing, either.

Meanwhile, in the six picks that followed Ginn, four of them made Pro Bowls. Willis went 11th, Marshawn Lynch went 12th, Revis went 14th, and future Dolphin Lawrence Timmons went 15th. Having a player like either Willis or Revis would have been very beneficial to a team that ended up going a league-worst 1-15.

Miami had Joey Porter and Channing Crowder at outside linebacker, but Derrick Pope in the middle. Willis did not have the longest career, retiring after just eight seasons and battling a nagging toe injury in his final campaign. He did make the most of his time in the league, making the Pro Bowl in his first seven seasons en route to becoming a member of the 2010s All-Decade Team.

Revis was also a member of that All-Decade team, and became familiar to Dolphins fans as a lockdown corner for the Jets and Patriots, among others. He had Michael Lehan and Will Allen staring at him in the cornerback room, something the seven-time Pro Bowler could have easily overcome. Star Island is nice, but Revis Island would have been better.

The two players had similar backgrounds coming into the league as Harris stood 6’3 and had 9.0 sacks in his final year at Mizzou, while Watt stood 6’4 and totaled 11.5 for the Badgers in 2016. That is when the two took vastly different career arcs.

Harris started just eight games in three years for Miami, accumulating 3.5 sacks combined. He was then shipped north to Atlanta for a seventh-round pick, not exactly top value for a young former first-round pass rusher. He had three sacks for the Falcons, before they let him go sign with Detroit. If he cannot further those sack numbers for the Lions, his next move may be north again to the CFL.

Watt on the other hand has started 62 of a possible 64 games for the Steelers, amassing 49.5 sacks and 59 TFL. He had a tall billing to live up to given his older brother JJ’s success in Houston, but has been equally as disruptive. He’s made the Pro Bowl in each of the last three years, including two first-team All-Pro campaigns. The Falcons and Cowboys each took pass rushers between Harris and Watt in 2017, and no doubt they join the Dolphins in feeling sick to their stomachs overlook Watt.

I mean, come on, who else? This pick again is not about who Miami took, but rather who they didn’t take. Brown rushed for 5,391 yards, mostly with the Dolphins, and was an integral part of the Wildcat offense that led to the 2008 division title. He made one Pro Bowl, played 10 years in the league, and was by all accounts, a solid running back.

Of course, a solid running back does not equal one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. It’s seemingly impossible for a running back to match a quarterback’s value, even when the positional charts were slightly different in 2005 than they are today. Yes, Rodgers was taken 22 picks after Brown, but he was very much in play for the 49ers at No. 1 overall.

San Francisco direly needed a quarterback, and eventually opted for Utah QB Alex Smith, who went on to a pretty good career in the NFL. Rodgers, in turn, slid and slid with players like Erasmus James, Alex Barron, and Fabian Washington all going before him. It’s not like the Dolphins could not use a franchise quarterback themselves. They had a QB room of Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels.

If teams viewed the quarterback position like they do today, or hell 2011 when four quarterbacks went in the first round including Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder, Miami would have almost certainly chosen whomever San Francisco did not take at one. That would leave them with Rodgers, who has won a Super Bowl, three MVP trophies, been elected to nine Pro Bowls, and will undoubtedly find himself as a first ballot Hall of Famer.

This pick is far different than the others before it on this list. It does not just change the Dolphins in the immediate future from 2005. It doesn’t just change the Dolphins for the next decade-and-a-half like it did the Packers. It would have changed the complexion of an era in the NFL.

Rodgers is not a system quarterback, he’s a transcendent one. If he was in Miami beginning in 2005 instead of Green Bay, do the Patriots still win the 13 AFC East titles, six AFC titles, and three Super Bowls they’ve won since then with Rodgers in the division? Does Brett Favre still go to the Jets and Vikings, or does he retire in Wisconsin? Does Miami build from its illustrious past and win the Super Bowls Marino deserved, but with Rodgers at the helm?

It’s enough to keep you up at night. There’s really no other choice for Miami fans but to bury this one deep and never bring it up again. The other eight scenarios on the list are season-changing, but this one could have erased the mediocrity that has been Dolphin football the last 16 years before it even happened.

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