Canes Chances of Winning the ACC Coastal are Slim

Note: Photo courtesy of Tony Capobianco.

Two weeks ago, when Miami fell to Georgia Tech, ACC Coastal dreams were a distant memory. A win over Pitt and a dominant destruction of Florida State has Canes fans getting out their abaci to try and calculate their ACC Coastal odds.

Unfortunately, the Canes winning the ACC Coastal will take a minor miracle. The reason? There are essentially 4 teams (excluding Miami), in the mix (or of concern to Miami. Duke is hanging around but the Canes still have to play them): North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. And while the Canes have gone 2-2 against those teams, they have a big problem, which is their ACC Coastal record.

North Carolina, Virginia, and Virginia Tech are guaranteed to finish with better ACC Coastal records in a situation where they end up tied with the Canes, and Pitt at best would tie Miami. The Canes minimized their ACC Coastal record.

This is important because after head-to-head, ACC Coastal record is the tiebreaker. The Canes poor ACC Coastal record eliminates all 3-team tiebreaker scenarios involving North Carolina or Virginia Tech. There are some really wacky 4-team ties where Miami ends up tied with Pittsburgh, Virginia, and one of North Carolina or Virginia Tech where they could win on head-to-head, but those are really outlandish. Not only would there need to be a 4-way tie, but the specific losses would have to be such that North Carolina/Virginia Tech are eliminated on head-to-head 4-way record prior to ACC Coastal record coming into play.

There is a 3-team tiebreaker which Miami wouldwin, and that is a tiebreaker where the Canes end up tied with Pittsburgh and Virginia. And while that doesn’t seem too far-fetched, the following would have to occur:

• Virginia loses one game.
• Pittsburgh loses one game.
• North Carolina loses one game.
• Virginia Tech loses two games.
• Miami beats Louisville and Duke.

Even that doesn’t tell the full story, which is only apparent when looking at schedules:

• UVA: Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
• UNC: at Pittsburgh, at NC State
• Pitt: North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, Boston College
• VT: Wake Forest, at Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, at Virginia

With so many games between the contenders, it’s hard to have them collectively lose the requisite games.