Do McDaniel & Grier believe in Tua, or trying to save jobs for 2025?

It may not be a hotseat for Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel in the upcoming 2024 season, but the chair is definitely heating up.

The Dolphins front office has some work to do, and it’s going to be complicated.

The team has an astounding salary cap situation, and also needs to consider their pending free agents, how to extend or replace their young stars, and how to restructure or let go of some of the aging pricey veterans. 

But what is the goal and overall thinking of the Miami Dolphins front office?

Is it to assume that Chris Grier and Mike McDaniel should act like their jobs are safe for 2025 and do what’s best for the Miami Dolphins for the present as well as the longterm future; or should both feel the pressure and make immediate impact moves to in order to have a successful 2024, keep their jobs, but have longterm ramifications down the line?

McDaniel may have only been with the organization for two seasons, but in both seasons, the team (especially the offense) has crumbled in December and January. McDaniel has been to the postseason twice, but lost both contests.

Owner Stephen Ross, ever so aware of his own mortality and remaining years, may want to start over with a new coaching staff if 2024 does not come with significant postseason success. 

And if Ross wants to go that route, then Grier shouldn’t feel safe to stay either.

Grier has been the general manager since 2016, and has been with the organization since 2000. The team has had a streak of winning seasons as of late, and two back-to-back playoff appearances recently, but no postseason wins.

If Ross is growing impatient, Grier may have worn out his welcome if the team doesn’t accomplish something significant in 2024.

Grier and McDaniel loaded up for 2023, but now the salary cap ramifications need to be dealt with this offseason, and that means finding solutions to contracts, using cap savings wisely, and knowing which players to fight for and which ones to let go, even if it’s a notable name. Also, anticipating draft solutions and capitalizing on them needs to be factored into the decision-making.

In order to load up for 2024, Grier and McDaniel could create cap space by extending some of the bigger names on the team. This would lower the cap number of players for the upcoming season like Tyreek Hill, Christian Wilkins, Tua Tagovailoa, and Xavien Howard. And could help the Dolphins sign significant players whose rookie contracts are expiring – Jaelan Phillips, Jalen Waddle, Javon Holland. 

However, extending players who command high-priced contracts could work well for this upcoming 2024 season, but come with ramifications again in 2025. 

Which makes me wonder if McDaniel & Grier are acting in the best interest of the organization or for their own best interests. 

This could be why Grier wants Tua Tagovailoa here for the “longterm”.

If Grier does the appropriate move with quarterback Tagovailoa, Tagovailoa would be playing on his 5th-year option with the team in 2024, while the team does a wait-and-see approach, before signing Tagovailoa longterm. Tua hasn’t proven enough in order to merit a longterm contract.

Although the quarterback has put up some big numbers and led the league in passing yards and passer rating in 2023, Tagovailoa hasn’t proven himself against playoff caliber teams, the closing months of the regular season or in his lone playoff appearance.

So why would the front office be so eager to sign him longterm now when they should let Tagovailoa play out 2024 and make a decision then?

Because Tua’s 5th-year option counts against the salary cap for this year. And that’s roughly $23M against the cap that the team can significantly reduce for 2024, if they want to add more impactful players.

But signing Tagovailoa longterm, may be beneficial for immediate success this season, but not in the long run for the organization.

Let’s say Ross blows up this regime after this season, and a new coaching staff comes in.

The new staff may not want to be invested in Tagovailoa, and want to draft their own quarterback.

Or let’s say Grier and McDaniel have another winning season, but see the shortcomings of Tagovailoa in big games again, maybe they would like to move on, but it would be very difficult at that point.

Tagovailoa is a good example, but he may not be the only player that could hamstring the future in order to win now.

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If Grier and McDaniel were doing the responsible thing, there wouldn’t be a rush to sign Tagovailoa to a longterm deal, but because it could possibly protect their jobs for 1 more season, it seems that’s exactly what they are doing.

However, the goal is to win now. While the team still looks like it has the chance to keep enough intact to make another push, it shouldn’t mean possibly jeopardizing the future of the organization’s quarterback position.

However, Grier and McDaniel know the reality of the NFL.

“Not For Long”

They know if they don’t win, they could both be out by season’s end, depending on the context.

McDaniel knows that new head coaches only get a 3-year window to make an impact, and that 3rd year better come with some playoff wins.

Grier understands that he has been a general manager for a lot longer than the fanbase has wanted, and that hasn’t come with postseason success.

Both the GM & head coach want that, the owner wants that, so they better deliver.

And that’s what they are attempting to do by getting a longterm deal done with Tua Tagovailoa.