Dolphins future hinges on tempering (Tua) expectations

This story is not here to tell you you’re wrong.

It is not here to argue against the plan.

This story is not here to take shots at any particular player.

Anyone who follows me on social media believes me to be critical of Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. I’ve made uninformed comments regarding his skillset that I have since corrected. Nevertheless, my personal philosophy leads people to believe that I am a “non-believer” of sorts. I make comments regarding what I have coined the “Cult of Tua,” because of the relentless hype surrounding this one quarterback. Not since Andrew Luck’s final year at Stanford has there been such a fanfare about a quarterback who has yet to join the ranks of the National Football League.

My frustration, such as it is, can be summed up from one GIF that I see on a regular basis while browsing Twitter.

It's what's best for this franchise. https://t.co/WvPDf1HYHI pic.twitter.com/TN0qmoEb8g

— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) September 15, 2019

That wink.

At this moment, it’s necessary to reiterate that my issue is not with Tua the football player. That GIF of him winking by itself is not what fills me with trepidation. It’s what it represents by those who use it. The hype machine that has surrounded Tua is where I take issue, because I can see where this could go horribly wrong for the Dolphins.

There are those who remember how things are. I applaud you if you’re one of them. But for those who are already crowning Tua as the savior of the franchise, I urge you to open your minds. Tua may very well be the next elite NFL quarterback. He may become Miami’s next Dan Marino, and maybe even surpass him. We don’t know, and that’s the entire point. Remember to temper expectations.

Tua’s Potential

Without a doubt, Tua Tagovailoa is the best QB Alabama has seen in a very, very long time. The word “transcendental” is used to describe his potential. All that is well and good. No argument here. But consider what will happen when Tua leaves his college world where he reigns supreme and enters a much bigger pond. If Miami’s plan is indeed to draft him, then the level of talent around him – resources to replenish or no – will not equate to what he had in college.

That is important.

Tua may not struggle at all, he may just be so incredibly elite that he’ll light up the NFL the moment he steps foot on a football field. If that’s the case, the Dolphins hit the jackpot. But it’s unwise to assume that will be the case or even get hopes up for that. If there’s one thing that’s been made clear, it’s that fanbases are notoriously impatient. Dolphins fans especially so. Certainly, there are those who will be disappointed when/if Tua fails to perform up to the remarkably high standards he set at Alabama. They may even turn on him, calling him a bust because he didn’t do as a rookie what he did in college.

You may now be saying to your screen that you feel you’re being talked down to. Of course you don’t believe Tua will be the same player in the NFL that he is in college. Again, I applaud you for your open-mindedness. There are growing pains to be had, adjustments to be made. Indeed, Tua may not even win the starting job to begin the 2020 season. But it is imperative that no matter what happens, patience prevails.

History says?

Consider the QB prospects that have come out in recent memory.

Sam Bradford had every tool required to be an elite NFL QB, but it never materialized due to injuries.

Cam Newton was touted as one of the most athletically gifted quarterbacks ever coming out of college. He’s made it to a Super Bowl, put up staggering numbers and highlights. But now as he begins to struggle, the Carolina fanbase is turning sour on him.

Andrew Luck, the ultimate can’t-miss prospect. He was the chosen one, chants of “Suck for Luck” rang loud and clear throughout Miami as fans desperately wanted the Dolphins to do what they’re doing now – tanking – to get their hands on him. However, he instead replaced Peyton Manning, the previous most can’t-miss prospect, in Indianapolis. No one questioned Luck’s skillset. But his most successful seasons? His first three. Indianapolis went 11-5 his first three seasons, and it went downhill from there. The Colts only ever made it as far as the Conference Championship. Luck is now retired as his body is breaking down.

Speaking of Peyton Manning, perhaps he is the most appropriate example of all. Manning’s rookie season in 1998 was a miserable experience to watch. Oh, he showed his potential to be sure, but it was not pretty to watch him go through his growing pains. Naturally, in 1998, social media was not a thing. There was no Facebook, no Twitter, no platform for fans to speak their minds like there are now. But after that season, what would fans think of their young quarterback who was supposed to be the face of their franchise? Undoubtedly, they would think he’s a bust.

20 years ago today…

The @Colts made Peyton Manning the first overall pick in the 1998 @NFLDraft! pic.twitter.com/j5SvNhR1Pf

— NFL (@NFL) April 18, 2018

Manning went on to win two Super Bowls. But it took a little time for the success to materialize.

Temper Expectations

It’s okay to get excited about a new face, especially one as supremely talented as Tua. But it is imperative that fans and media alike refrain from putting him on a pedestal he has yet to earn. That is what leads to disappointment and heartbreak. Tua’s status as an elite college QB and NFL prospect is unquestionable. What he does once he reaches the NFL is not only up to him. Even Dan Marino, arguably the greater passer in NFL history, never won a Super Bowl.

Many have said that there is no such expectation being placed on Tua, it’s all in our heads. However, there is also the simple fact that everyone said they were ready for a tanking season. Now, many of those same individuals are unhappy because they didn’t know what tanking would entail. There are many of you who read this and are nodding sagely. Then there are those of you who feel that this story didn’t need to be written. There are even some who think that all this is wrong, that Tua is the savior and nothing can or will change your mind.

That’s fine, I’m not trying to change your mind.

Go on believing that Tua is the answer to Miami’s problems. He might be. But, remember to temper your expectations and not give up on him too soon if he struggles at the beginning. Tua’s wide receivers are some of the best in Alabama’s history, and his offensive line certainly exceeds the Dolphins. That factors into his success, believe it or not. It may not be the same for him when he arrives in Miami.

Be patient. Rome wasn’t built in a day. Don’t allow your heart to be broken again.