Dragon Layers: What happens to the Heat’s Dragic?

By finishing in 10th place in the East, this year marks the third season out of five since LeBron James’s departure in Summer ’14 that the Heat not only missed out on the playoffs, but did so by such a tiny margin as to land on the wrong end of the draft lottery ledger.  The overwhelming mediocrity of the roster that’s lingered over the past couple years, covered up briefly by the tropical blanket of Dwyane Wade’s final season, has not gone away.

Although there’s optimism surrounding with #TheKids, (especially with us at HeatBeat), the overriding fan perception is that the Miami Heat is a collection of unwanted, middling contracts for so-so players plus close-to-B-level prospects, with another potentially being added in this draft, unless the Heat move up from No. 13.

And this is for a team with the highest payroll in the NBA.

Reviewing Goran Dragic

Given all of this, perhaps the best symbol of their mediocre-to-weirdly okay situation going forward is Goran Dragic. He was never supposed to be their best player when the franchise traded for him in 2015, but it turned out that way after Bosh’s medical misfortunes and Dwyane’s departure. Yet that ended up being his role during most of his time here, with Hassan Whiteside (when engaged) as his second best player for most of that tenure, while the likes of Dion Waiters and James Johnson declined significantly after signing their contracts and never fully recovering from injuries. Although most of us appreciate his contributions and steadiness as Miami’s most reliable scorer over the past few seasons, Dragic has been on a decline of his own over that time as well.

Whether you’re going by his per-game numbers, his advanced stats or his efficiency from virtually every spot on the floor, it’s become clear that the man whose 33rd birthday is coming up next Monday has begun to play his age. The Heat know this, as was evident from their willingness to keep Justise Winslow as starting point guard for a significant period of time this season amid reports that it might remain that way going forward following Pat Riley’s season-end individual meetings with Dragic and Whiteside. This will surely be weighing on Goran and his agent’s mind with the 1-year, $19.2m player option he’s got coming up this summer, (June 29th, to be clear).

Summer Decisions

“I didn’t decide (anything) yet,” Dragic said after surprising fans and Chick Fil A customers in Doral last week during a ‘Random Acts of Heat’ appearance. “I didn’t think about it. I was just at home, having a good time with my kids, so still. I had a meeting with Pat and uh, that was it. I told him I’m going to make my decision when that comes, you know. So I still need to talk to my family, the agent. Right now, I just want to have two weeks to one month completely off to enjoy my vacation and then it’s gonna be time for business, and we will sit down and talk.”

The reality is this: although Dragic almost definitely wouldn’t get equal value or more somewhere else on a yearly basis, the opt-in might not actually be the best choice for him. Taking into account the aforementioned decline in his effectiveness and shift in future role, along with his age, his decline in drives/layups, the accompanying increase in threes and recently injured knee (he said it’s feeling better after his procedure and rest), Dragic’s best option may be to opt out and aim for a 3-4 year deal at a lower annual rate. That could project somewhere between $27-44 million, whether it be with the Heat or another team, even if Dragic hasn’t wavered at any point from speaking his love for Miami.

There’s a good argument that the Heat are best off if both Dragic and Whiteside opt-in for one more year if they won’t outright walk away and give the Heat cap room this summer. That would actually turn both of them into valuable expiring contracts that contenders would theoretically want, rather than having one or both of them cut into the team’s future money, even if they come at a more reasonable rate. The franchise has too many middling contracts that add up to a middling team as it is.

Option Options

However, I doubt Dragic opts out either way without more or less knowing where he’d end up and with what type of deal. It’s notable that the opt-in deadline is right before free agency will be key, with Dragic ranking as the relatively cheaper third option compared to the likes of Charlotte unrestricted free agent All-Star Kemba Walker and Memphis trade candidate Mike Conley. And if you envisioned Dragic as a sixth man for a team that signs a star in the summer, think again. The Heat would have to work some (pick-dealing) magic to create that kind of space, which doesn’t feel prudent.

Some options that come to mind for Dragic’s camp to leverage against the Heat with a long-term deal:

-The Dallas Mavericks have the Luka Doncic connection. Dragic played for years with Luka, including when they won the last Euro Cup tourney. That could be a free agency destination, and possibly a trade partner.

-The Utah Jazz, having lost out on dealing for Mike Conley, reportedly circled back with the Heat on a potential trade centered around Dragic for Ricky Rubio and Jae Crowder before talks died down when the Jazz asked for additional pick compensation.

-The Indiana Pacers will also have money to spend and have been reported to covet an upgrade at point guard, next to the returning Victor Oladipo.

-The Detroit Pistons, who were also in talks with the Grizzlies on Conley before the trade deadline, could also be looking for improvement he position. Perhaps the Heat take Reggie Jackson if the Pistons throw in enough draft compensation and/or young players.

Although most Heat fans (myself included) may prefer the cap space with two opt-outs, I’d bet that Dragic opts in. I’m not sure the Heat want to cut into future cap space with a long-term deal, unless of course he takes exception money, (of which the Heat can offer their room exception that starts at around $4.7 million per season). That doesn’t seem likely, as Pat Riley hinted towards at the same season’s-end presser where he called Justise Winslow “our primary ball handler to get us into offense.”

“Now you’re getting to a discussion I haven’t had with his agent or Goran,” Riley responded after being asked about a potential long-term deal with the option players. “You have to give the player time to think about it. We have to take a look at what our priorities are. If room is going to be one of [our objectives] in 2020, that would stop any longer deal with any one of them.”

If the question going forward is whether or not they are going young with their foundation, Riley helped answer that at his presser as well, and it didn’t exactly sound like he was including Dragic (or Whiteside) in those future plans. It sounds more like he would appreciate the cap room to try and attract other stars, whether it be this summer or the next.

“Justise’s improvement as is Josh’s improvement, and Bam’s, last 19-20 games, is indicative of a nice little core of young players,” Riley said. “We can add Derrick Jones Jr. to that and our pick this year and that will be good on the eyes of some possible free agents who want to come here, that’s all part of being an attractive place.”

The Heat’s chancest at acquiring an All-Star this summer are reliant on guys like Jimmy Butler and Kyrie Irving, who both have shown prior interest in the Heat and are both unrestricted free agents whose future with their current teams hinges on their playoff success and, more importantly, whether or not those teams offer them their 5-year max deals.

If the Heat feels they’ve got a real shot at one of them, they would need both of their own opt-outs as well as stretching out Ryan Anderson’s 1-year, $15.6m deal over three years to the tune of $5.2 million instead. This would give them about $25 million in cap space, which is still not enough for a full max slot. From there, they’d most likely have to turn to giving up a pick (whether this year’s or a future pick) to get another team to take on a contract like James Johnson’s, who is the oldest of the hefty contract bunch and the one with the largest contract left.

I’m expecting Dragic to opt-in unless he gets a lucrative long-term offer from a Playoff team. It could go either way, one might say.

But seriously, if we have seen the last of him in a Heat uniform, I sure as shit will miss his “adorable” smile and iron shoulder, the constant attack mode he’s in when the Heat get out in transition and his steadiness as someone who did the best they could in circumstances that could and should have been better.

But things don’t ever really go as they should, huh?

Alex Toledo (@TropicalBlanket) is known on Miami Heat Beat as a professional screwup, which makes him the opposite of Goran Dragic. Both have adorable faces to varying degrees.