For the Dolphins…. you’re saying there’s a chance?

With the Miami Dolphins now 4.5 point underdogs in one of the soon-to-be coldest weather games in NFL History, their chances of coming out of Kansas City still alive in the Wildcard Round are not looking good.

It’s true, on the surface, the trusted stock in the Miami Dolphins is down right now after losing the division crown to the rival Buffalo Bills who seem to always have their number.

Mike McDaniel looks like a coach that can’t make halftime adjustments.

Tua Tagovailoa looks like a quarterback who can’t win a big game.

And Tyreek Hill seems to get a case of the dropsies whenever these big games arrive.

On defense, the Dolphins are banged up entering this game.

They will be without their high-profile cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) which will leave Eli Apple on the opposite side of star Jalen Ramsey. Kader Kohou will likely be in the slot.

The pass rushing unit has taken a huge hit this year. LB Jaelan Phillips tore his Achilles versus the Jets, LB Bradley Chubb suffered a torn ACL on New Year’s Eve, and LB Andrew Van Ginkle hurt his foot
in the team’s regular season finale. LB Jerome Baker, who is an adequate blitzed, hurt his wrist and will require surgery. None will be available to chase down Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead Stadium.

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But the Dolphins have a secret weapon on defense for this game — experience.

And not just any type of experience.

Experience from 3 longtime veterans who have totaled 243 sacks collectively in their careers. And although they are relatively new to the team, Melvin Ingram, Justin Houston, and Bruce Irvin all have experience chasing after Patrick Mahomes.

Ingram did it when he was a member of the Chargers.

Justin Houston sacked Mahomes as a member of the Colts.

And Bruce Irvin claims he sacked Mahomes twice as a member of the Raiders, but he may have mistakenly meant Alex Smith.

Houston and Irvin who both joined the team this week say they’ve played in similar defensive systems like defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s system, so they believe they can get acclimated quickly.
Houston still sees himself as a pass rusher, and Irvin says he moves faster than his 36-year age. The Dolphins are hoping all 3 veterans have enough left in the tank, and can combine their football knowledge to make a difference not just for this game, but for the rest of the postseason should the team win on Saturday.

But despite the injuries, the Miami Dolphins still have a chance in this game, but that all depends on if they can fix what has ailed them in the final two weeks of the regular season.

The defense has been competitive, and they showed it last week when they only allowed a total of two touchdowns to the Bills.

The Chiefs receiving corps doesn’t offer much of a threat, but Mahomes’ improvising and Andy Reid’s ability to whip out the tricks during this time of the year does. Look for misdirection and the
occasional trick play. Also, the Dolphins secondary has been exposed on drag plays across the field when they played the Ravens, and the Chiefs offense is more horizontal this year than vertical, so look for
Reid to utilize some of those play calls when he has good matchups. I’d expect tight end Travis Kelce to feast off of these catches with Miami’s linebacking unit and safeties banged up.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins front-7 needs to continue their ferocity keep Chiefs running back Isaiah Pacheco, from violently running downfield. The Fins defense has suffered a lot of injuries, but that’s actually one aspect that doesn’t concern me too much. Defensive tackles Christian Wilkins, Zach Seiler, and run-stuffing linebacker David Long Jr. are still around to lead the charge.

What McDaniel cannot do is get away from the run too early before the Chiefs learn to stop it.

After grinding down the clock with the run on their final drive and kicking their way to victory over the Cowboys on Christmas Eve, the Dolphins picked up where they left off in Week 18 versus the Bills.
The Fins ran the ball for over 100 yards in the first half, but went away from it in the 2nd half when the Bills decided to give McDaniel looks that were intended to stuff the run. However, McDaniel ditched
the run game before the Bills ever actually proved that they could stop it. This got the Dolphins offense into trouble and led to a bunch of short drives and punts, which allowed the Bills to get back into
the game and take the lead. McDaniel needs to stick with the run game until the Chiefs prove they can stop it.

The Dolphins are better at running the ball than the Chiefs are defending it. So using running backs De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson Jr. is imperative considering the elements. If Raheem Mostert, who is
listed as questionable and has over 20 touchdowns for the season can play in this game, that will be bode very well for this offense. All of these backs can catch, and McDaniel and Tua need to remember that when they have these speedsters mismatched on Kansas City’s talented linebackers.

The offensive line has been riddled with injuries, but still playing quite well when it comes to the run blocking and giving quarterback Tua a pocket. Tua continues to avoid the sacks while getting the ball
out quickly, but still must prove he can go off script and make something happen when the team needs it in crunch time. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo has playcalled in a lot of big-time games throughout his career, and this game will be no different. Knowing that Tua isn’t the best escape-artist, I’d expected Spagnulo to blitz quite often while hoping to get the Dolphins offense in as many 3rd & long situations as possible. Considering the freezing temperatures, and the hardening of the football, throwing it deep probably isn’t the best option for Miami offense or when facing the Chiefs’  secondary. I would like to see more crossers and drag routes to see if Spangulo’s cornerbacks can keep up versus Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle’s presumed return.

What the Dolphins cannot allow is a big return or some kind of foul up on Special Teams.

Coming out of halftime versus the Ravens, the Dolphins allowed a kickoff return for a big return — demoralizing.

Against the Bills, after the defense got a stop — Dolphins special teams unit allowed a punt return for a touchdown to allow the Bills to tie the game 14-14. The Dolphins kickoff and punt coverage unit cannot allow short fields or easy scores to the Chiefs in a game with extreme elements where field position could be vital for victory.

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Key to Victory: Take the lead and Pull Away

In Arrowhead Stadium, there has been too much Mahomes Magic at this time of year. This Chiefs team is beatable, but to avoid any miraculous late-game magic or dagger killing drives by Patrick
Mahomes, the Dolphins have to get off with fast start (like they usually do) and pull away. None of the cute Mike McDaniel attempting to go for it on 4th-down early in the game despite being in field goal
position — No. Take the easy points, and when you go down the field again, tack on some more points. Because this team has shown time and time again that they are a first half team in games versus playoff contenders, and they shown to little to prove that said problem is fixed.

You want to beat Mahomes?

Play smart, stop him early, tack on multiple scores, and keep the lead out of reach of his magic and Andy Reid’s creative play calling.