Pressure Point: Heat’s on Tua, McDaniel as Dolphins face chilly prospects in playoffs

So, what’s the mood, Miami Dolphins fans, excited about the playoffs?

Your team finished the regular season 11-6, its most wins in 15 years. It’s headed to the postseason in back-to-back seasons for the first time in more than two decades.

And yet, anger and dejection is palpable throughout South Florida after watching a bevy of annoying Buffalo fans celebrate their Bills snatching the AFC East title on the Dolphins’ home field on the final night of the season. Just the latest Dolphins debacle played out before a national audience.

Ya got us again, Dolphins.

My best friend since Kindergarten is also a die-hard Dolphins fan. We've been texting all morning. I have to share something that was just said…

"We're both 40 years old. We've been having this same fucking conversation every January since we were 11."

I'm tired boss…

— Stephen St🏀ne (@StephenRStone) January 8, 2024

No team is as adept at luring its fans into skydiving without a parachute as the Dolphins.

They outdid themselves this time. Redefining epic collapse, the Fins squandered a three-game lead in the division over the final five games. Instead of opening the playoffs at home, they must travel to face the defending champion Chiefs in freezing Kansas City.

Tagovailoa disappears in second half

At the most important moment of season that brought so much acclaim to Tua Tagovailoa and the offense, it was Tagovailoa and the offense that failed miserably in the second half of the 21-14 loss to the Bills.

That and an inexplicable lapse on special teams in allowing a 95-yard punt return by Deonte Harty.

Vic Fangio’s defense did its part in holding Josh Allen and the Bills to two touchdowns and forcing three turnovers (two interceptions and a brilliant strip-sack by Christian Wilkins) plus an inspiring stop at the goal line by Jerome Baker to end the first half.

The defense clearly wore down in the fourth quarter — losing two more edge players from its depleted corps of outside linebackers (Andrew Van Ginkel and Cameron Goode) was a factor. But the second-half undoing was squarely on Mike McDaniel’s highfalutin offense.

The Dolphins totaled just 47 yards of total offense in the second half while holding the ball for only seven minutes. In five possessions after the half, they punted four times (three were three-and-outs). The final indignity saw Tagovailoa overthrowing seldom-used Chase Claypool for his second interception of the game.

“We never felt like they stopped us. That’s the tough part about tonight,” veteran left tackle Terron Armstead said. “We had some missed opportunities. I, myself, had a terrible false start and I feel like I screwed the team. We lost momentum after that. It just kind of sucked the energy – not necessarily sucked the energy – but just a very bad penalty to take that five-yard loss. So man, I completely screwed the team right there, and it was hard for us to get back on track after that. I take full accountability for that.”

McDaniel’s offense struggles against top teams

There was plenty of accountability to be directed at the head coach and playmakers as well.

After rushing for 101 yards in the first half while building a 14-7 lead, Miami ran the ball only three times in the second half.

Tua, who led back-to-back 75-yard touchdown drives in the second quarter, was out of sync after the intermission. Even Tyreek Hill, who celebrated his TD catch with a gymnastics routine worthy of Simone Biles, had a couple of drops.

McDaniel said: “It seemed like take a turn each drive. We weren’t able to really get the momentum of the drive going, which is what happens when myself as a play caller decides to pass, anticipating that we have an advantageous look. I think at this point in the season you have to trust a lot of things and it didn’t work out. It goes really to the whole group because we were running the ball well. They changed their box count which wasn’t like they changed defenses. They just called more eight-man front and you have to be able to adjust with the defense and make plays in all phases, and we were unable to do that tonight.”

On the narrative that the Dolphins don’t beat good teams….

“I don’t think it’s a funk, I think it’s reality. That narrative will occur until you do things to change it.” — Mike McDaniel

— Five Reasons Sports 🏀🏈⚾️🏒⚽️ (@5ReasonsSports) January 8, 2024

For all the praise directed toward McDaniel as an offensive innovator, he is starting to resemble Adam Gase 2.0.

A lot of the gaudy stats generated by the Dolphins’ league-leading offense have the luster of fool’s gold. When needed most, McDaniel’s offense hasn’t delivered.

In six games against teams going to the playoffs, the Dolphins scored 20, 17, 14, 22, 19 and 14 points. They won only one of those games, the 22-20 comeback against the Cowboys.

Tagovailoa outplayed by Jackson, Allen

Leading the 64-yard drive to the winning field goal in the final 3 ½ minutes against Dallas was Tagovailoa’s finest moment. In the two losses since then — 56-19 disaster at Baltimore and Sunday against the Bills — the Dolphins’ supposed franchise quarterback was thoroughly outplayed and overshadowed by the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Buffalo’s Allen.

Tua’s passer rating against the Bills was 62.7, his worst of the season. Second worst was 71.9 at Baltimore.

Granted, Allen is prone to mistakes. He threw two interceptions and lost a fumble Sunday. But in the fourth quarter he took over the game and enforced his will. Facing third and 13 on a clock-killing drive, Allen rumbled through Dolphins defenders for 15 yards.

The Dolphins need a stop and #4 makes a business decision to not get involved with tackling Josh Allen. pic.twitter.com/wsd77cyCid

— Sir Larry (@LarryTheSir) January 8, 2024

While McDaniel is 20-15 as Dolphins coach, he’s 3-11 against teams that have made the playoffs the past two seasons.

Make no mistake, McDaniel and Tagovailoa aren’t going away next season. But the reckoning Dolphins ownership and management must contemplate is where can this franchise go with them? And what are the options for alternatives?

Long shot to break drought in playoffs

Because a season that appeared headed for a breakthrough is now back to a well worn crossroad to nowhere, facing a likely one-and-done in the playoffs. There have been four of those (including last year at Buffalo) since the wild-card win in overtime over the Colts in 2000.

According to CBS Sports HQ Research, the Bills are the fourth team in NFL history to win a division after being down three-plus games with five or fewer games to play. (1973 Bengals, 2008 Chargers, 2022 Jaguars). After floundering at 6-6 and firing their offensive coordinator, they now take the momentum of five consecutive wins into opening the playoffs at home as the second seed in the AFC.

For Miami, it’s off to playoff purgatory at Kansas City where temperatures for Saturday night are forecast to drop as low as minus-2 degrees.

“We can’t dwell on what has happened,” Armstead said. “We’re the six seed. We got to go play Kansas City, let’s go. Let’s go do it. Let’s make it happen. We go up there and get a big win against the defending champs, on to the next.”

Who knows, the NFL is full of surprises. Some may view the Chiefs as less formidable right now than the Bills, who would have returned to Miami Gardens if the Dolphins had prevailed.

But seriously, the prospects of Tua leading an upset in frigid and foreboding Arrowhead Stadium? I’m not putting cash on it at the Hard Rock Sportsbook.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.