Launching Pad: Derrick’s Drives, Dragic’s Dimes, Olynyk’s Out

Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

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The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 26-10, 3rd in the East (2-2)

• Offensive Rating: 110.0 (102.1)

• Defensive Rating: 106.5 (103.2)

• Net Rating: plus-4.5 (minus-1.1)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.5 (53.3)

• Pace: 99.14 (96.48)

• Time of Possession: 14.7 seconds (15.0)

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Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Derrick Jones Jr., Bam Adebayo

• Minutes: 16

• Offensive Rating: 90.6

• Defensive Rating: 67.7

• Net Rating: plus-22.9

• True-Shooting Percentage: 43.7 (????????)

• Pace: 92.5

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The Big Number: 63

Seems like an odd number, right?

First off, it quite literally is an odd number (sorry, had to). To narrow it down a bit, it’s especially odd in reference to James Johnson.

He logged roughly 22 minutes in Sunday’s not-as-close-as-it-looked victory over the Portland Trail Blazers. It was the first time Johnson had eclipsed the 20-minute mark since November 3rd, 63 days ago. Heck, it was the first time Johnson had played at all since November 27th — eight throwaway minutes during the Heat’s fake-comeback in their loss to the Houston Rockets.

Johnson and Dion Waiters have been in the proverbial doghouse all season long. Waiters has a laundry list of reasons explaining his absence in the rotation; Johnson’s case is a bit more peculiar. Not only has not been in trouble as much, he’s been a great teammate and locker room guy by most accounts. On top of that, you’d think he’d have the clearest path to a role considering …

[waves wildly at the non-Bam Adebayo true bigs on the depth chart]

But alas, Johnson has been more myth than match-up piece.

If his outing proved anything (12-6-2 with two blocks), it’s that he can still bring some positives if he’s given the opportunity. It might be time for that to happen more often.

Weekly Trends

1. Derrick Jones Jr. is expanding

It feels like I’m writing about Jones Jr. every week at this point.

He’s doing his usual work as the Venus fly trap of Miami’s 2-3 zone. Erik Spoelstra has given him more reps against elite perimeter scorers as of late — peep his work against Damian Lillard on Sunday. His discipline has gotten much better, on and off the ball. It’s why he’s pretty much match-up proof at this point.

The offensive fit has always been the bigger question. Entering the year, he wasn’t a good enough shooter to be a mismatch-4, nor did he have the ball skills necessary to provide plus-value at the 3. Within that lens, he looked more like a “sell high” candidate rather than a core young piece.

Let’s just say the tides may be changing.

The biggest development of the season might just be Jones Jr. being able to dribble. It’s an admittedly simple thing — dribbling shouldn’t be hard — but it’s unlocking his potential as a finisher.

Jumping out of the building is a fun trait, but that trait doesn’t matter if you can’t get to the rim without traveling or dribbling off of your knee. Being able to chain together two or three-dribble drives is wildly important for him, particularly because it doesn’t take much for him to explode at the rim.

Via Synergy, Jones Jr. is converting 65.4 percent of his shots at the rim in half-court situations. That’s a sizable bump from last season’s mark (60.9 percent).

The shooting absolutely has to bounce back, though. In addition to converting just 22.6 percent of his threes, he’s somehow shooting 19 percent from the corners. That just can’t happen. He does seem much more comfortable taking them in rhythm, which can’t be said about certain All-Stars in Philadelphia.

Good on Jones Jr. for stretching himself – and likely making himself quite a bit of money this summer.

2. Goran Dragic: Droppin’ Dimes

It’s hard to overstate how good the bench role has been for Dragic. He’s averaging 16 points, 5th in the NBA among reserves (min. 20 games). His 41.5 percent clip from deep isn’t just efficient, it’s quite impressive once you consider the volume (5.7 attempts) and the difficulty of the looks. The rim-finishing has bounced back in a major way, giving him some equity as a 2.5 level scorer.

That kind of thing shouldn’t be shocking. A lower burden against lesser competition can explain some of the juice. Dragic essentially reinventing himself as a (pick-and-roll) passer is … confusing. The comfort he has tossing lobs is a bit jarring.

 

When he’s in a groove, Dragic gets a bit … flashy? He gets a bit flashy!

Via Synergy, Dragic is generating over 1.12 points per pick-and-roll pass, placing him in the 68th percentile. That number goes up to nearly 1.2 points when he’s hitting a big on the roll. His chemistry with Bam Adebayo in particular has been a joy to watch.

I’m old enough to remember a time when Dragic was getting slandered for not threading the needle on pocket passes. He’s doing that — and more — with relative ease this season.

3. It’s about *that time* for Kelly Olynyk

Remember the note from, like, two minutes and 48 seconds ago about James Johnson playing 22 minutes on Sunday? Let’s put that number into further context: Kelly Olynyk played 18 minutes this week.

Three games. Six minutes per. The math is as clean as it is ugly.

Olynyk has done his usual screening goodness. The improv in dribble-handoffs (DHOs) was a bit off to start the season, but gained some steam in November. He’s shooting a career-high from three (41.5 percent), which seems to have been largely ignored in discussions of Miami’s offensive renaissance.

But, good lord, has the defense been capital-A awful this season.

He’s an eye sore in space, mostly “meh” on the glass, and can get bullied at the rim. Positioning only matters if you can get to spots before the offensive player does; Olynyk has not been able to do that consistently.

In light of Meyers Leonard being better this season, Bam Adebayo playing like a star, Jones Jr. soaking up minutes at the 4, Chris Silva doing stuff*, and Johnson getting dusted off on Sunday … what exactly is the path for Olynyk to regain his place in the rotation?

If the defense doesn’t pick up to “below average”, Olynyk may make more sense as a trade candidate than a match-up dependent piece.

Set Play of the Week

Rolling to Spain

If you’ve followed me or my work for any amount of time, you know that there isn’t anything I love more than a well-executed Spain pick-and-roll.

For those who aren’t familiar with the action, it kicks off with a traditional pick-and-roll. As the big transitions from screener to roller, a second player — normally a shooter — sets a screen on the big man’s defender before flaring out to the three-point line.

The benefits are obvious. The guard clearing out the big man’s defender will give the big a clear lane to the basket, or a mismatch against a guard, assuming he drops or switches to help. If the guard is stuck trying to defend the rim, that either means the big that got screened is stuck guarding the shooter who screened him, or he’s in No Man’s Land, which means the shooter is open.

This is what option one looks like.

Tyler is the Herro on this play. Not only does he make solid contact on the screen, he also holds it long enough to stonewall Hassan Whiteside and freeze his defender () in the process. Adebayo is able to rumble down the lane unimpeded. No help comes from the corner, which makes the Dragic lob to Adebayo an easy one to make.

Beautiful. Basketball.