Manny Pacquiao vs. Keith Thurman: End of the road?

Where to watch: Saturday, July 20th, 2019, MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, Available on FOX Sports PBC PPV.

When I wrote a few weeks ago that Boxing was/is in a very good place, I had weekends like this one in mind. When Manny Pacquiao takes to the ring in Las Vegas versus the WBA Welterweight Champion Keith “One Time” Thurman on Saturday Night in las Vegas, you will have the first of what should be many “Super Fights” in the Welterweight division. Erroll Spence, Shawn Porter, Terrance Crawford, all figure to be fighting either the winner of this fight, or each other in the very near future. Exciting times.

Now, on the face of it, some might be skeptical of this fight on Saturday. Well, get this. Vegas is not. Pacquiao is actually the Favorite in this fight! https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/boxing/ How? Well, not hard to see. Since his debacle versus Floyd Mayweather, when losing by unanimous decision (with one arm), yeah folks, I’m not making excuses, The guy had shoulder surgery after his “fight”, Pacquiao has run off an impressive string of fights. Defeated Tim Bradley handily, for the 2nd time, and let’s be real, for the third time. A win versus Jessie Vargas, and a controversial loss versus crowd Favorite Jeff Horn in Brisbane, Australia.

Then came his fight versus Lucas Matthysse. I felt this was an irresponsible fight to make. Lucas Matthysse is a killer. 36 Knockouts in 39 wins? Fighting a near 40 year old Manny Pacquiao? This was surely not going to end well. Knowing how Matthysse fights with that pressure style, I figured he would induce the diminished “Pacman” into exchanges that would surely end Manny’s career. That is not what happened. Manny Pacquiao never looked better. He annihilated Matthysse via 7th round TKO, and that setup his latest snore fest versus perennial disappointment Adrien Broner.

Which brings us to Keith Thurman. How good is he? Well, it’s hard to say really. After defeating Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia, many considered him the best Welterweight in the world. But injury and the emergence of Spence, Crawford has him as the forgotten man. What hurts him in the eyes of fans is that there is this perception that Pacquiao has hand picked Thurman due to his return to the ring against Josesito López in January of this year, being so underwhelming. He looked bad. Got rocked in the 7th round by a guy in López, that is not known for any power. Thurman has a lot to prove. Manny is attempting a pretty nice addon to his legacy. Makes for a good matchup.

So who wins? Well, Manny is now 40 years old. Thurman is finally healthy and in his prime. You have to figure that the clock will strike twelve on old man Pacquiao, sooner rather than later, and this is one dangerous matchup. Thurman is not only younger, and bigger, but boasts the superior power at this stage in their careers.

But somehow Thurman is not the favorite. Is it a gift? Smarter observers than myself are considering it a gift. Hall of Famer Teddy Atlas (who has a remarkable record as of late, picking fights) made a point to talk about how Pacquiao’s muscle tone is different, and that he seem to be taking chances at these late stages of his career that a younger opponent can take advantage of. He says Thurman by stoppage on his much heralded podcast:

This is where I remind everybody about what we have learned about these two fighters in their recent history. While Thurman had a layoff and returned to underwhelm, Pacquiao has been cutting through the division in impressive fashion. His pressure, heart and determination will give Thurman anxious moments, and we all know Manny’s penchant for beating up guys that are bigger than him (De La Hoya, Cotto, Margarito, Mosley, Matthysse). So, do I have the Pacman, once again? I really hated Keith Thurman’s last performance. I think Manny is the wrong fight for Thurman to take. I don’t think Thurman can win a decision against an active Manny Pacquiao, so he needs a stoppage. Can he summon one? I say Manny dances through the rain drops once again, and No, it’s not the end of the road.

Prediction: Manny Pacquiao by Decision.

Alfredo Arteaga (@UptownReport) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.