Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Catching up with the Heat

Through nearly 2/5s of the season, Jimmy Butler hasn’t been himself on the court despite the Heat having a 19-13 record and sitting at fourth in the East. A year ago, the squad had a .500 winning rate after the same number of matches, while JB was ripping defenses at a 53.2% clip but appeared in 20 games. Now, he is attempting a career low in percentage of attempts at the rim and logging his least efficient campaign in a Heat uniform.

Injuries have been a factor. He’s been absent nine outings with rest, personal reasons, an ankle injury, knee tendinitis, and he recently missed four in a row with a calf strain. Then, in Saturday’s duel with the Jazz, he hurt his right foot, leaving midway through the third quarter, and he’s out for Monday’s meeting with the Clippers because of it.

At this rate, Butler, who is 34 years old, is on pace to record 62 games this season, which would be his second-lowest percentage since joining the team behind 2021-22. That isn’t ideal for a squad that should aim to secure home-court advantage through the first round, at least, but it hasn’t hurt them so far. The record in games without him is 5-3.

In the present campaign, Butler has arguably the best band ever put around him in Miami. Bam Adebayo is a top-three center. Tyler Herro keeps ascending. The group struck gold in the Draft, selecting Jaime Jaquez Jr. And Duncan Robinson has turned into a threat inside the arc, apart from being a lethal outside marksman. In theory, the cast of characters should allow him to age gracefully.

But is it that simple?

At Butler’s age, only 11 players in NBA history have averaged 20 points on 50% shooting in the Playoffs, per Stathead. Of course, he isn’t just a scorer, but the Heat are most dangerous when he looks to put the on-ball or backline defender in foul trouble.

Throughout his time in Miami, he has developed a “wait until the Postseason” reputation, and he’s lived up to it all but one year (2020-21). Yet, when he doesn’t look as sharp as he did in the losses at Milwaukee, Utah, and in defeats at Kaseya Center to the Nets and Cavaliers while tallying his lowest field goal percentage as a Heatle, it’s fair to wonder if accumulated mileage has caught up to him. Of current guys in the league, Butler is 10th in Playoff minutes.

It’s not strange that after 13 tours, he’s presumably downshifted from sixth to fifth gear. Exhibit A: Jaquez is currently the team’s best close-range threat, attempting 3.2 shots in the restricted area, converted at 69.6%. For reference, Butler logs 3.4 tries from 0-3 feet at 65.9%. His peak production rate in this category for Miami was 4.6 shots on 72.2% in 2020-21. Exhibit B: Last season, when Butler had one day of rest before a game (37 times), he would make 52.3% of the shots. In 2023-24, with the same time in between (15 times), he is converting 47.4% of tries.

Age showing its medusa-like face doesn’t mean he can’t take over. But it does signify that picking his spots probably means lowering the RPMs in the regular season more than ever. This is happening on the Lakers with LeBron James and on the Suns with Kevin Durant- both still produce loud numbers, but their impact isn’t the same. Heat supporters likely will not care if it buys Butler another prepotent Playoff showing that takes the group on another deep run.

Before that can happen, it must take care of business until the end of the year. The concern is that with Butler coasting, the Heat won’t get a high enough seed to host a series. In 2022-23, it was the first Play-In squad and second eight seed to make the Finals, but counting on another ride like that is unwise. It was historic for a reason.

A top-four spot would lessen the mental burden of starting a series in hostile territory.

Can the Heat get there?

There are 50 outings left. Nonetheless, the team is on pace to win 49 games. In the last two years, the fourth seed (Cleveland, Philadelphia) won 51 matches. Today, Miami and Orlando are tied for fourth place, with the former owning the tiebreaker.

The Knicks, two games out of the Heat’s spot, are also on the hunt after dealing for O.G. Anunoby (and in the long term if he extends, which is likely). What makes Anunoby special is that there aren’t 10 other dudes in the NBA who defend the other squad’s top perimeter player AND score 15 points nightly, as he does. The Heat still has two meetings left with the Knicks on Jan. 27 in New York and April 2 at home.

Herro and Adebayo are Miami’s leaders in scoring average, and their two-man connection is one of the strongest on the team. One of the next steps for coach Erik Spoelstra is making sure JJJ works well in a rotation with them because he is Butler’s expected successor.

Jaquez is first among rookies in minutes, second in steals, points in the paint, and third in assists, and made freebies.

However, negatively affecting the Heat’s effort to grab a top-four seed is inconsistent production at point guard. It’s part of the reason it can’t sustain leads, aside from being average at covering the 3-point line. Kyle Lowry is third in games played and fifth in minutes. These days he is only helping if his long-range jumpers are falling and with the occasional outlet pass. He only gets one paint touch per contest and is willing to reach on defense instead of staying with his man.

Josh Richardson will get his minutes gashed if he keeps getting torched on defense, too.

The team is depending on Caleb Martin (ankle sprain) and Haywood Highsmith (jaw contusion) being high-level contributors when they get back.

Considering injuries and deficiencies- aside from JJJ, Adebayo and Butler, the rest of the team can’t get into the paint as easily- the chances the Heat keep the fourth seed are around 40%. This team takes 38.5% of its looks from deep, 13.4% in the midrange and 48.1% in the paint. If any of those three are not puncturing the teeth of the defense, snatching a win becomes much more difficult by playing more from the outside.

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