Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Five objectives for the Miami Heat’s 2024-25 regular season

The Miami Heat have a path to defy expectations for a strong regular season by hitting five marks. Following an unceremonious first round exit in five games to the eventual champions Boston Celtics, the squad is arguably worse. 

The crew lost Caleb Martin to the Philadelphia 76ers and Delon Wright to the Milwaukee Bucks. The material replacements are Alec Burks, who played in 66 games and logged 18.4 minutes nightly last year; Kel’el Ware, the 15th pick in the draft plus Pelle Larsson, the 44th selection, and Keshad Johnson, an unchosen prospect; and Josh Christopher, a G-Leaguer in 2023-24.

If there’s any internal optimism, it comes from having Terry Rozier on deck, starting training camp, allowing for more cohesion. 

Let’s review five reachable benchmarks that could boost the club. 

Seventy games minimum for Jimmy Butler and more shots at close range

Butler has only logged at least 70 games twice in 13 seasons. That attendance rate isn’t enough, as the Heat depend on him to create most of the breakdowns on the court. Without him, the group only hits its fourth of sixth gear.

He must change the narrative, as Pat Riley talked about with Dwyane Wade years ago. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has one of his top regular seasons in black because he wants a new contract next summer. 

For that to happen, he must raise his shot attempts at 0-3 feet back up to 30%. He scored at a slightly above-average rate in that zone, which was a drop-off from the previous three seasons. In those campaigns, he averaged 70.9% accuracy in the restricted area. Notably, Butler’s potency at close range slightly decreased, but his trips to the line didn’t much- only by .75 tries. 

Getting the old Butler back would make the Heat “dangerous loomers” again.

Robinson builds on last year’s campaign 

Tyler Herro is the most probable candidate to start over Robinson. The former is a superior ball handler and inside-the-arc scorer. The latter is a dangerous deep threat and moves better without the ball. It’s unclear which direction coach Erik Spoelstra will lean, but if he starts Herro, Robinson must produce as he did last year. 

In 2023-24, he was a lights-out shooter, putting up 14.4 points on 47% accuracy, including 42.1% from deep, with three rebounds, three assists, and 1.4 turnovers with the initial group. As a reserve, he averaged 11.1 digits on 42.4% shooting, with 36.2% from 3-point range, plus two rebounds, 2.3 assists,and 1.4 turnovers per contest.

Providing higher than 40% of hoisted trays on over seven tries off the bench is the firepower the Heatles need from Robinson if Herro starts.  

Adebayo takes on a bigger role on offense 

Adebayo has been the second and 11th best paint scorer in the NBA over the past two seasons. This must continue while he becomes more of a focal point and adds range.

In the future, he needs to take more trips to the line. He’s averaged 5.6 feeebies per outing over the last five seasons. The main reason is likely that most of his attempts come in the interior non-restricted area because he has improved significantly as a jump shooter. Thirty-six and a half percent of his tries come from 3-10 feet as opposed to 24.5% at the cup. 

To get him to the line more, he would likely need to adjust his shot diet so he gets more rim rolls, slot cuts and baseline attacks. His goal should be taking at least eight freebies per contest plus two trifectas per game in 2024-25.

Ware provides good minutes 

The Heat’s new rookie, Kel’el Ware, shouldn’t be expected to play in every game, unless he is astonishingly the second coming of Alonzo Mourning. Keep in mind that when Nikola Jović’s back healed, the Heat were selective with their green prospect, shifting him to the G-League early in his second year then elevated his usage with the main group. 

Still, Ware will likely get around a dozen minutes per game when he’s used. Eventually, the plan is for him to work in different lineups, ones that include Adebayo. For now, when #13 sits, Ware cannot be someone the opponents hunt down—he needs to be a positive pick-and-roll defender. Additionally, he must be an impactful rebounder and mover without the ball to keep earning time. 

Continuous growth for Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jović

When next to the starters, Jaquez works well off-ball and can score double-digits without running sets run for him. He was also dependable, being ninth in fourth-quarter minutes (626.7) in 2023-24. Adebayo was sixth (643.2).

Next season, his goal should be continuing as the team’s primary bench player by upping his scoring. His post-game is productive and can be used in higher volume to take advantage of one-on-one matchups or to absorb the extra defender, then find the sniper. 

Furthermore, his deep shot needs tuning as only 32.2% of his tries were logged and over half came in the corners. NBA defenses always sag off that area to clog the paint. It’s essential that he buries those looks.  

Jović showed the Heat a lot in 38 starts last season. He is a strong and tall playmaker on the break and a release valve in the half-court. To follow up, he needs to tighten his handle and improve his finishing at the rim to become a dependable ball handler. 

Defensively, there’s a lot of work to do. Most of his time was spent covering forwards (49.1%) in 2023-24, giving up 51.9% of attempts. His length and frame are nice tools, but he must be more disruptive against dribble penetration.

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