Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Heat notes in week three of the season

The Heat are 3-4 after soiling themselves in Phoenix. Each of the losses was versus a quality opponent, and the wins were against the bottom of the league. The squads that have beat the Heat (Orlando, New York, Sacramento, Phoenix) amass an 18-14 record. The teams the Heat defeated this season (Charlotte, Detroit, Washington) have a combined record of 8-15.

The team’s next outing is Friday in Denver, facing off with the Nuggets. 

Let’s review what stands out through week three.

Observations:

1. Jimmy Butler’s free-throw shooting and close-range finishing have fallen off a cliff. He converts 12.6% less freebies and 15.3% less makes at the rim while decreasing his tries in that zone by five percent. 

Additionally, he is 10th in the NBA in drives to the basket (15.9), attempting five field goals nightly on the go. He averaged 5.26 shots per game on drives in the five past seasons with the Heat, but he isn’t taking over like he used to.

Butler was a no-show against the Magic and was missing in action versus the Knicks. He was excellent in the second half of the Heat’s last-moment loss to the Kings. And his production was insufficient in Phoenix while also passing out of the last play, letting time expire.

Unless he and Bam Adebayo rediscover their abilities, the Heat’s season is toast.

2. Adebayo has lost his touch from his favorite spot, the paint non-restricted area. His efficiency has dropped 18.2 percent at the zone. To boot, most of his attempts have been guarded tightly, per the NBA’s tracking data, and he’s making 40% of those. The league defines guarded tightly as a defender within 2-4 feet of the player. Notably, in 2023-24, most of Adebayo’s tries were guarded tightly, but he made 55.2%.

3. Nikola Jović is not ready to be a starter. He doesn’t provide much in the half-court besides waiting for the kick out and scoring on the occasional cut. Defensively, players of comparable size or larger can take advantage of him. Wednesday’s match was the second consecutive game he was benched early after 12 minutes. 

Consider this: the starting lineup of Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Butler, Jović and Adebayo, only averages 39.9% of attempted field goals and has a hopeless 119.5 defensive rating. 

Haywood Highsmith should start over him while keeping his seven fourth-quarter minutes. Despite being five inches shorter, Highsmith is a stricter defender and more impactful offensive player. 

4. Another Heat problem: Terry Rozier hasn’t been a good fit for the starting lineup because quick or bigger ball handlers can expose him. Also, his shot selection is suspect, and he’s logging only 38.4% of tries, including 39.6% from deep.

5. Tyler Herro has been the Heat’s best player through seven outings. He and Highsmith kept the team afloat in Phoenix on Wednesday until the end of the fourth. Herro was also the strongest player in the loss against the Kings. 

He has the highest effective field goal percentage (63) and true shooting percentage (66.1) of the starting lineup while taking the most shots on the team. This year, he is taking three fewer two-pointers and nearly one more triple nightly while providing the best off-ball work of his career.

Additionally, the Heat have been dependent on him carrying the offense early. Only four players who have logged at least six games- Jayson Tatum (12.3), Anthony Edwards (9.8), Damian Lillard (9.4) and Anthony Davis (8.9)- score more in the first quarter than Herro. But Miami’s guard records a higher field goal percentage in the frame (67.6) than all.

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