Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Heat notes on Nikola Jović, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson

Nikola Jović lived through highs and lows during his sophomore year, but he’s made monumental strides since his first season. He got stronger by bulking up around 20 pounds, preventing opponents from overpowering him as often, and his 3-point percentage has nearly doubled.

He’s the likable young person who takes tips from players like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, laughs with them, and works diligently with assistant coach Malik Allen.

He logged about 20 minutes of action between Oct.30- Dec. 6 and played in seven G-League games, but now he is the power forward.

Jović’s smarts, speed, size and strength make him the club’s top decision-maker in transition. In fact, when he plays power forward, the squad scores 152.9 points per 100 transition plays, good enough for the 86th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. Furthermore, just 9.6% of his points came on the break in 2023-24, and 29% of his assists are in the open court.

But there are nights when coach Erik Spoelstra benches him early and others when he is unleashed. For example, in the Heat’s last game, he played 23 minutes, registering six points on 33% accuracy, with five rebounds and four assists; and in the outing before that, he tallied 23 marks on eight of 12 attempts, with eight boards and a dime in 39 minutes.

At age 20, he hasn’t evolved into a dependable half-court scorer, but that’s the next step. Currently, he’s mainly a catch-and-shoot option in this setting. The Heat need him to take extra shots at close range and finish more around the rim. He needs to tighten his handle, too, and he won’t be a dependable late-game option without it.

Down the line, he will likely turn into a high-caliber role player. A solid goal would be developing him into an athletic Boris Diaw- the French Magician was a creative passer and an average finisher at close range. The Heat should bring in former All-Star Goran Dragić (as our man at the network, Eternal Bast, suggested) to train with him and monitor his progress. Regarding elusive tricks and scoring, the Dragon is as fine a teacher as any.

A third-year leap relative to his improvements from his inaugural campaign until now would not only elevate the Heat, but extend Butler’s All-Star lifespan. On top of that, if Jović plays starter minutes next to Adebayo, the group doesn’t have a size issue in the back line. Jović is a decent rebounder, but the most used Heat lineup gave up an offensive rebound on 21.5% of opponents’ misses. This lineup included Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, Butler, Adebayo and Jović.

Adebayo bolsters résumé with second Olympic gold medal

The Heat’s center is on track for the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame following his second gold medal claim. He was the no.2 player for two Finals trips, has been arguably the league’s top defender for the last five years and is a top-shelf athlete. This span has included three All-Star selections plus five on the All-Defensive team.

Five more years producing at his rate should buy him a ticket into the honor’s club when he hangs his sneakers on a wire.

But who wants to depend on voter-determined accolades? Self-grabbed achievements instead of the elector awards (minus the MVP crown) would give his case extra credibility early. For example, leading the Playoffs in field goal percentage. He’d have to adjust his shot diet, but Jarrett Allen’s marks (67.6) in four games are reachable. Adebayo’s max in that category was 59.4% in 2021-22, but perhaps there will be expected Big Game Bam sightings as there were for Pat Riley’s former player, Big Game James Worthy.

His prime is starting and he has a final gear to get to on offense because he is taking more 3-point shots. If Adebayo becomes someone who isn’t just left open but eventually recklessly closed out to, he will have more chances to blow by rivals. Keep in mind, the captain was 11th (900) in paint points last season and second (1,098) the year before.

Following Team USA’s victorious run through the Olympics, Adebayo joins Dwyane Wade as the only player in Heat history with two Olympic medals. The former has two in gold and the latter one in gold and bronze.

Given his playstyle- an omnipresent defender with great leaping ability and a mid-range jumper- Team USA will probably target him for the 2028 Los Angeles campaign, too. And if Joel Embiid wasn’t pump-faking about competing for Cameroon, Adebayo’s experience and skills will be needed.

Last year’s Duncan Robinson (as a starter) is badly needed

Duncan Robinson is one of the best on the team at moving without the ball and was one of the league’s top snipers when starting. But he was a regular-shmegular as a reserve. As the former, he put up 14.4 points on 47% accuracy, including 42.1% from deep, with three rebounds, three assists and 1.4 turnovers. He logged 11.1 digits on 42.4% shooting, with 36.2% from 3-point range, plus two rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.4 turnovers per contest as the latter.

Additionally, when Robinson works with Rozier, Butler, Jović and Adebayo, the lineup feasts from the corners, making half its shots.

Playing more time with the group’s best players maximizes Robinson, who was one of the NBA’s most improved in 2023-24. He started scoring more inside the arc, upgraded his passing and elevated his defense.

He isn’t the on-ball threat Tyler Herro is, yet Robinson has gotten good at connecting with Adebayo when opponents trap the handoff.

—

For more Heat info, subscribe to Off The Floor.