Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Philadelphia or Boston: Which team is a better matchup for the Heat?

As the seconds ticked away on the Heat’s 96-92 win over the Knicks at home, Pat Riley assuredly grinned with contentment.  Not just because his club embodied his image and personality, as coach Erik Spoelstra said postgame, but because his group bounced his old employer.

Jimmy Butler was in good spirits, too, after sending home his former coach of the Bulls and Timberwolves, Tom Thibodeau.  He sat next to Kyle Lowry at the presser, shirtless.  When asked what set the Heat apart from the typical eighth seed, he answered, “We got Kyle Lowry,” making his partner blush beside him.    

The dub advances the Heatles to its third conference finals since Butler arrived in 2019.  With JB in command, the squad has competed in 10 playoff series, winning seven.  In those four seasons, Miami has the most playoff wins with a 33-21 record, is second in games logged and has the third-highest winning percentage at 61.1% behind the Lakers and Warriors.  

Spoelstra is now seven postseason dubs behind Doc Rivers for fourth place all-time in playoff coaching wins.

The Butler experience is one of the best rides the Heat’s ever been a part of.  The group now waits until Sunday afternoon after Game 7 between the 76ers and Celtics to see who it will play next.  Judging from afar, Philadelphia seems like a tougher matchup for Miami.

What? A Doc Rivers-led team? I’m afraid so.  There is no doubt that Joel Embiid would pose a significantly greater problem than Boston’s frontline of Al Horford and the shell of Robert Williams III.  Bam Adebayo could defend any of the Celtics’ bigs in single coverage.  Marking Embiid in some spots might require a double team, exposing an area of the floor.

Adebayo on Embiid is the only option that works.  It wouldn’t be an easy face-off for #13 because Embiid is drawing 9.8 free throw attempts per game in the postseason, and he is a perpetual flopper.  If Adebayo gets into foul trouble, it would require a superhero effort from Butler and Co. to prevent Philadelphia from abusing the interior.

In the Playoffs, Embiid is recording 37.3 minutes and dropping 24.8 points per game on 45.2% field goal efficiency. It’s not close to his regular season average of 33.1 points on 54.8% shooting, but he’s been banged up since Game 3 of round one.  Regardless, Embiid is still making half his catch-and-shoot attempts, swatting 2.9 shots per outing, and holding his matchup to 40.7% of its tries from the field.

I am not underestimating the Celtics, either.  Fortunately for the Heat, the Celtics are like Geroge Romero’s living dead and refuse to go away, biting off chunks of flesh before the round’s over. Boston’s ball movement has also exposed Philadelphia’s defense up top, splashing 39.3% of above-the-break triples.  But Embiid has been a solid second line of defense and the main reason why Philadelphia’s rivals are scoring just 39 points in the paint in the Playoffs.

Game 7 in Boston could go either way, but it’s probably best for the Heat if it sees the team that beat it last year on its home floor instead of the group that’s hungry to avenge last season’s round-two loss to Miami.